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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978

    The disregard of testing was another thing the 'experts' are to blame for.
    Not entirely.

    Experts told UK to boost test-and-trace in February, papers show
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/experts-told-uk-to-boost-covid-19-test-and-trace-in-february-papers-show
    The government was advised to scale up its coronavirus test-and-trace effort using a call centre system as early as February, government documents show, raising questions about why the system launched last week as lockdown measures were eased is still not fully operational.

    A report presented to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 12 February, when the UK was still actively tracing contacts of those infected with Covid-19, recommended a 10-fold increase in Public Health England’s test-and-trace capacity in order to extend the number of cases that could be managed.

    “Scaling this response up, using for example a call-centre type system to support the local PHE teams, should be possible and feasible,” the experts from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge recommended.

    However, this suggestion does not appear to have been pursued and contact tracing was abandoned in March.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    DavidL said:

    I was in favour of Brexit (I may not have let this slip) but increasingly I feel we have more in common with other European nations than we do the US. We confuse ourselves that we are more similar than we are because they speak a form of English. But when you see videos like some of those linked to this week with people standing outside their house with semi-automatic weapons as protestors walk by I think I have absolutely nothing in common with these people at all. In fact I cannot imagine even liking them.
    Ultimately the cost of staying in the EU was eventually becoming part of the USE. The path for the UK is to be a nuclear version of Canada or Australia. The idea that we could still be one of the two world powers was never going to hold and the idea that we could stamp our authority within the EU was also an idea that was never going to hold.

    Brexit was an inevitability given the alternative. Already we're seeing a renewed push for "more Europe" from the commission. If we'd voted to remain it would have been impossible to oppose the Corona bailout and we'd have been on the hook for hundreds of billions as the second largest economy and holding the ability to print our own money.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    HYUFD said:

    As long as Russia has nuclear weapons so should we (Sir Humphrey of course famously said the same about France)
    I'm with David. They're a useless geegaw. Can't send them in against something like Coronavirus can we (not that we can of course send conventional forces in either)?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    ydoethur said:

    If I were feeling pedantic I would point out it was every 20 seconds.
    Did that not require a militia well drilled, as well as well regulated ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    edited June 2020

    No, it is enough - not just enough, essential. If somebody remains beholden to an inherited sense of loss, sorrow, and anger, it will poison their life. Telling black people that they've started life with a handicap is simply an appalling and counterproductive thing to do.
    Denying or ignoring our role in past oppression of BAME communities is in itself racist.

    Being Anti-racist is a more active position than being colour blind. It means challenging racism, both direct and indirect when we encounter it, and that includes a certain amount of uncomfortable self reflection on our own attitudes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978

    No, it is enough - not just enough, essential. If somebody remains beholden to an inherited sense of loss, sorrow, and anger, it will poison their life. Telling black people that they've started life with a handicap is simply an appalling and counterproductive thing to do.
    And to think I never believed whitesplaining a thing...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    MaxPB said:

    Ultimately the cost of staying in the EU was eventually becoming part of the USE. The path for the UK is to be a nuclear version of Canada or Australia. The idea that we could still be one of the two world powers was never going to hold and the idea that we could stamp our authority within the EU was also an idea that was never going to hold.

    Brexit was an inevitability given the alternative. Already we're seeing a renewed push for "more Europe" from the commission. If we'd voted to remain it would have been impossible to oppose the Corona bailout and we'd have been on the hook for hundreds of billions as the second largest economy and holding the ability to print our own money.
    The option of fully embracing European integration was and remains a viable alternative. In the long run there is no alternative.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    edited June 2020

    The option of fully embracing European integration was and remains a viable alternative. In the long run there is no alternative.
    There is absolutely an alternative, not being in it. Even among remainers your position is niche and presenting it as inevitable is laughable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    DavidL said:

    Not raining here (Dundee) but very windy once again. Going to do some bracing gardening this afternoon.
    Am I alone in finding protests in the UK about truly dreadful things in America over which we have no say, no influence and no authority just a bit weird?
    As with several others I agree in finding it weird. I'm sorry, but whilst there are issues in this country to address, that these protests take up the title of the USA protests, and are in response to them, makes it look more like a stunt than anything else to me. It's flavour of the month in the US, so people want to be cool here.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513

    The joke is that the EU is quite possibly a breach of the treaty already.

    How long before Russia brings this up for mischief making.
    purposes?

    Revoking it (and the others treaties that specify similar) would restart the occupation of German and Austria!
    If Russia really wanted to revive German expansionism, they should offer to give Kaliningrad back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    kinabalu said:

    I agree. You have to be freakishly objective in order to look at yourself objectively.
    Probably not an exercise worth devoting too much effort to - attempt to be reasonable and see if people take you as relatively objective I suppose.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    MaxPB said:

    There is absolutely an alternative, not being in it.
    It's not sustainable. The UK isn't a Canada or an Australia, or even a Switzerland.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    It's not sustainable. The UK isn't a Canada or an Australia, or even a Switzerland.
    I think it already is, so are all of the European countries. A bunch of second and third rank countries coming together is still just a bunch of second and third rank countries. It does nothing to project more than the sum of the total.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    edited June 2020

    I'm with David. They're a useless geegaw. Can't send them in against something like Coronavirus can we (not that we can of course send conventional forces in either)?
    Conventional forces can be sent in to help, eg with testing, faciity building etc, a Trident II D-5 not so much. If we wanted to really get into 1000 sledgehammers to crack a nut mode, they could take out virus hot spots I guess.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541
    edited June 2020
    kle4 said:

    Probably not an exercise worth devoting too much effort to - attempt to be reasonable and see if people take you as relatively objective I suppose.
    Yes - bit of a rabbit hole otherwise.

    It's like the statement "I'm not as clever as I think I am."

    Hall of mirrors.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    It must be remembered that it is extremists, from all sides, who receive the most publicity.

    Aspects such as electoral choice of government, rule of law, freedom of speech and free market economies are still shared values.

    Even if such things are threatened by the extremists of all sides.
    And its the extreme views of those extremists too. (Noone cares what the mainstream views they may also hold are)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    I was interested to see that Mr Carlaw is bottom of the class - apparently not just because of DKs. "Amongst the minority of respondents who have a view on the Scottish leader, his net approval has halved from +23 to +11. His colleagues are reportedly angry at his handling of the Cummings row."
    Carlaw is fumbling about in the dark. Nobody in Westminster or Whitehall knows who he is.

    He is in dire straits if he is overtaken by nonentity Leonard next May.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    MaxPB said:

    I think it already is, so are all of the European countries. A bunch of second and third rank countries coming together is still just a bunch of second and third rank countries. It does nothing to project more than the sum of the total.
    That reminds me of the Flanders and Swan song, 'The English, the English, the English are best, so up with the English and down with the rest'.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    edited June 2020
    Foxy said:

    Denying or ignoring our role in past oppression of BAME communities is in itself racist.

    Being Anti-racist is a more active position than being colour blind. It means challenging racism, both direct and indirect when we encounter it, and that includes a certain amount of uncomfortable self reflection on our own attitudes.
    That may be your notion of racism, but it isn't one that I subscribe to, nor is it the dictionary definition. Racism, like Fascism, seems to be an encroaching term, as more and more behaviours and views that are not racist fall within the scope of its baleful usage. Precise definitions are important and it is dangerous to play with them to suit an agenda.

    You're right that being an 'Anti' of anything implies a much more active approach than merely lacking prejudice. That's why it's so harmful. It involves searching for the thing you're 'anti' and searching inevitably leads to finding. You end up flagellating yourself and sitting in judgement over others. Like any mental blight, it will be a faithless friend, and the things you do to appease it will never be enough.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    MaxPB said:

    I think it already is, so are all of the European countries. A bunch of second and third rank countries coming together is still just a bunch of second and third rank countries. It does nothing to project more than the sum of the total.
    I meant it in a different sense. The UK is the relic of a faded empire. If we hadn't begun detaching ourselves from the EU after the introduction of the Euro, then it may have held together in its present form, as European borders would have held less and less significance to the lives of ordinary people. Brexit puts the integrity of the UK at stake in a big way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Not entirely.

    Experts told UK to boost test-and-trace in February, papers show
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/experts-told-uk-to-boost-covid-19-test-and-trace-in-february-papers-show
    The government was advised to scale up its coronavirus test-and-trace effort using a call centre system as early as February, government documents show, raising questions about why the system launched last week as lockdown measures were eased is still not fully operational.

    A report presented to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 12 February, when the UK was still actively tracing contacts of those infected with Covid-19, recommended a 10-fold increase in Public Health England’s test-and-trace capacity in order to extend the number of cases that could be managed.

    “Scaling this response up, using for example a call-centre type system to support the local PHE teams, should be possible and feasible,” the experts from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge recommended.

    However, this suggestion does not appear to have been pursued and contact tracing was abandoned in March.
    The other notable points from that article are the warning back in February that discharging patients into care homes would be very dangerous, and the recognition back in March of the utility of face masks for the general public.

    To blame SAGE for all the government’s mistakes does not seem a supportable position to take, however imperfect SAGE has been (very).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    I'm with David. They're a useless geegaw. Can't send them in against something like Coronavirus can we (not that we can of course send conventional forces in either)?
    If ourselves and the French gave up nuclear weapons and Putin decided to invade western Europe, there is little we do could to stop him
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950

    Bregret?
    Nope. I want us to be friends and work closely with our European partners. I do not think that being a part of the EU is in our interests.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    When you say "never will", do you mean that you would fight against it even after losing a referendum?
    lol
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541
    Foxy said:

    Denying or ignoring our role in past oppression of BAME communities is in itself racist.

    Being Anti-racist is a more active position than being colour blind. It means challenging racism, both direct and indirect when we encounter it, and that includes a certain amount of uncomfortable self reflection on our own attitudes.
    That's right. You can be both racist and an anti-racist. In fact, recognizing and fighting the racism in yourself arguably makes for a more authentic anti-racist than being utterly free of it, as in "colour blind". Which imo very few people of middle age and upwards are. Indeed if I hear the phrase "haven't got a racist bone in my body" from any such individual I tend to form the opposite conclusion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited June 2020

    I meant it in a different sense. The UK is the relic of a faded empire. If we hadn't begun detaching ourselves from the EU after the introduction of the Euro, then it may have held together in its present form, as European borders would have held less and less significance to the lives of ordinary people. Brexit puts the integrity of the UK at stake in a big way.
    If we had gone into the Euro we would ultimately just have become a region of a federal EU superstate anyway, whether the UK held together or not.

    The 1707 Union also came before the US War of Independence and before India, Australia, New Zealand and the African colonies were colonised by Britain
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,190
    Nigelb said:

    Not entirely.

    Experts told UK to boost test-and-trace in February, papers show
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/experts-told-uk-to-boost-covid-19-test-and-trace-in-february-papers-show
    The government was advised to scale up its coronavirus test-and-trace effort using a call centre system as early as February, government documents show, raising questions about why the system launched last week as lockdown measures were eased is still not fully operational.

    A report presented to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 12 February, when the UK was still actively tracing contacts of those infected with Covid-19, recommended a 10-fold increase in Public Health England’s test-and-trace capacity in order to extend the number of cases that could be managed.

    “Scaling this response up, using for example a call-centre type system to support the local PHE teams, should be possible and feasible,” the experts from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge recommended.

    However, this suggestion does not appear to have been pursued and contact tracing was abandoned in March.
    One of the concerns expressed (and this might have been resolved) was that some chunks of experience were missing from SAGE. In particular, people from a boring public health background. So the UK put insufficient effort into boring but useful things like manual track and trace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/gaps-sage-scientific-body-scientists-medical
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541

    That may be your notion of racism, but it isn't one that I subscribe to, nor is it the dictionary definition. Racism, like Fascism, seems to be an encroaching term, as more and more behaviours and views that are not racist fall within the scope of its baleful usage. Precise definitions are important and it is dangerous to play with them to suit an agenda.

    You're right that being an 'Anti' of anything implies a much more active approach than merely lacking prejudice. That's why it's so harmful. It involves searching for the thing you're 'anti' and searching inevitably leads to finding. You end up flagellating yourself and sitting in judgement over others. Like any mental blight, it will be a faithless friend, and the things you do to appease it will never be enough.
    Not searching - recognizing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950
    HYUFD said:

    As long as Russia has nuclear weapons so should we (Sir Humphrey of course famously said the same about France)
    I am not saying we should not have nuclear weapons. What I am saying is that a strategic nuclear system such as Trident or its replacement is not necessarily the best use of our defence budget. Cheaper and better options that would scare anyone rational enough to be scared of Trident are available. 50 nuclear armed cruise missiles on 20 different sites, for example. Russia is a pale shadow of the threat the Soviet Union was in my childhood.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    edited June 2020
    Demo best practice during a pandemic:
    https://twitter.com/ThkBleu/status/1269254786978701312

    The absence of pepper spray and kettling helps, of course.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    kinabalu said:

    That's right. You can be both racist and an anti-racist. In fact, recognizing and fighting the racism in yourself arguably makes for a more authentic anti-racist than being utterly free of it, as in "colour blind". Which imo very few people of middle age and upwards are. Indeed if I hear the phrase "haven't got a racist bone in my body" from any such individual I tend to form the opposite conclusion.
    In my experience people who aren't racist have no need to advertise that fact.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    HYUFD said:

    If ourselves and the French gave up nuclear weapons and Putin decided to invade western Europe, there is little we do could to stop him
    I don't think Putin has the ability to invade Western Europe, but if he does, I also don't think we would be physically able to use our nuclear deterrent on him, because I don't think America would let us. As I've said before, we *know* that without their cooperation our deterrent would be useless in weeks. What we don't *know* publicly is (I think) that if we did fire one off, they would have the ability to kill it. I have no idea if it's connected, but when Theresa May tested Trident, I have a recollection that the missile unexpectedly just turned tail and headed for Florida.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    edited June 2020
    kinabalu said:

    That's right. You can be both racist and an anti-racist. In fact, recognizing and fighting the racism in yourself arguably makes for a more authentic anti-racist than being utterly free of it, as in "colour blind". Which imo very few people of middle age and upwards are. Indeed if I hear the phrase "haven't got a racist bone in my body" from any such individual I tend to form the opposite conclusion.
    'I'm not a racist but' has a similar effect on me. See also 'I'm no fan of Trump/Farage/LePen but' etc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950
    edited June 2020
    HYUFD said:

    If ourselves and the French gave up nuclear weapons and Putin decided to invade western Europe, there is little we do could to stop him
    Rubbish. The Russian army has barely held its own against largely untrained Ukrainian militias.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978

    One of the concerns expressed (and this might have been resolved) was that some chunks of experience were missing from SAGE. In particular, people from a boring public health background. So the UK put insufficient effort into boring but useful things like manual track and trace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/gaps-sage-scientific-body-scientists-medical
    Also our public health capability has been severely degraded over the last decade.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316

    That may be your notion of racism, but it isn't one that I subscribe to, nor is it the dictionary definition. Racism, like Fascism, seems to be an encroaching term, as more and more behaviours and views that are not racist fall within the scope of its baleful usage.
    Particularly when it leads to people being able to be racist without even knowing it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950

    When you say "never will", do you mean that you would fight against it even after losing a referendum?
    Yes. And I have not criticised remainers for doing likewise. They are entitled to their view as I would be entitled to mine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316

    'I'm not a racist but' has a similar effect on me. See also 'I'm no fan of Trump/Farage/LePen but' etc.
    I know its an axiom to 'ignore everything before the but', however it is not always right to do so because it can be a very convenient way of declaring that someone does not mean what they say but mean what you want them to mean, quite often by suggesting they in fact support the things they say they do not support, and thus can be easily dismissed without any evidence.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    kinabalu said:

    Not searching - recognizing.
    'Recognising' is a term that implies something is the whole truth. Given that I don't agree that you have 'the whole truth', I am saying that what you term 'recognition' is better termed searching and finding. You believe something, and life provides you with evidence of it. It's the same for all of us - it's why we just don't *get* how those other people can believe that thing when all the evidence screams to the contrary.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    Nigelb said:

    Not entirely.

    Experts told UK to boost test-and-trace in February, papers show
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/experts-told-uk-to-boost-covid-19-test-and-trace-in-february-papers-show
    The government was advised to scale up its coronavirus test-and-trace effort using a call centre system as early as February, government documents show, raising questions about why the system launched last week as lockdown measures were eased is still not fully operational.

    A report presented to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 12 February, when the UK was still actively tracing contacts of those infected with Covid-19, recommended a 10-fold increase in Public Health England’s test-and-trace capacity in order to extend the number of cases that could be managed.

    “Scaling this response up, using for example a call-centre type system to support the local PHE teams, should be possible and feasible,” the experts from Public Health England and the University of Cambridge recommended.

    However, this suggestion does not appear to have been pursued and contact tracing was abandoned in March.
    More test and trace capacity would have been good - though how much a tenfold increase would have been depends on how much capacity they had at the time.

    But the lack of overall testing throughout March and April was a major failing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    DavidL said:

    Yes. And I have not criticised remainers for doing likewise. They are entitled to their view as I would be entitled to mine.
    If, in your lifetime, we have a united Ireland and a sovereign Scotland, England and Wales, would you fight to reconstitute the British union?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I meant it in a different sense. The UK is the relic of a faded empire. If we hadn't begun detaching ourselves from the EU after the introduction of the Euro, then it may have held together in its present form, as European borders would have held less and less significance to the lives of ordinary people. Brexit puts the integrity of the UK at stake in a big way.
    The UK was finished off by the lop-sided New Labour devolution scheme, a masterpiece of strategic political ineptitude which sundered Blair's country and his party along with it.

    All that saved the Union in 2014 was Scotland's budget deficit and the financing thereof by the English taxpayer. The moment that Scottish public spending ceases to be critically reliant on subsidy is the moment that the Scottish electorate will go stampeding for the exit door. It's merely a matter of time.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    75 English hospital deaths reported:

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

    Almost all were recent deaths but still much down on previous Saturdays.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819

    If, in your lifetime, we have a united Ireland and a sovereign Scotland, England and Wales, would you fight to reconstitute the British union?
    Indeed, I think it very likely that DavidL will be back in the EU, well before those of us south of Berwick are.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541
    edited June 2020

    Yep, easy to forget that Trump was to some extent an unknown quantity, particularly the quantity that suggested he could be POTUS. We all know about him now.
    This is at the heart of why I expect a clear defeat for him.

    Group 1 - Voted for him in 2016 with a certain reluctance but having experienced 4 years of him do not do so in 2020.

    Group 2 - Did not support him in 2016 but are sufficiently impressed by the reality of him in office to vote for him in 2020.

    Group 1 will imo be bigger than Group 2.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950

    If, in your lifetime, we have a united Ireland and a sovereign Scotland, England and Wales, would you fight to reconstitute the British union?
    I don't expect to see any of these but no, I wouldn't fight to reconstitute the UK if democratically made decisions had resulted in it breaking up. But I would greatly regret the passing of the land of my birth and am convinced that Scotland would be much the poorer, economically, socially, politically and culturally for it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978
    They’re really quite good at this...

    https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/1268997121446801408
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,978

    More test and trace capacity would have been good - though how much a tenfold increase would have been depends on how much capacity they had at the time.

    But the lack of overall testing throughout March and April was a major failing.
    Yes.
    I’m not really defending SAGE - they’ve made some howlers.
    But they haven’t always been wrong, and government has made mistakes quite independently of scientific advice.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    Foxy said:

    Indeed, I think it very likely that DavidL will be back in the EU, well before those of us south of Berwick are.
    I think you're right - he's booked to go to Benidorm as soon as they have flights out of Prestwick.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    I don't think Putin has the ability to invade Western Europe, but if he does, I also don't think we would be physically able to use our nuclear deterrent on him, because I don't think America would let us. As I've said before, we *know* that without their cooperation our deterrent would be useless in weeks. What we don't *know* publicly is (I think) that if we did fire one off, they would have the ability to kill it. I have no idea if it's connected, but when Theresa May tested Trident, I have a recollection that the missile unexpectedly just turned tail and headed for Florida.
    Your first statement is dangerously casual and the thought fills me with dread.

    If Putin decided he wanted the Baltic States back and while he was at it fancied Spain and Portugal too, he has the personnel, the equipment and the firepower to march through Central Western Europe like a knife through butter. Why he has resisted in the past is the expectation that the USA would rain fire and brimstone across his empire. If the POTUS is indeed in Putin's pocket we are buggered.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    75 English hospital deaths reported:

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

    Almost all were recent deaths but still much down on previous Saturdays.

    Had a quick look for myself, down almost 50% relative to the 146 reported last Saturday. The death figures are still in steady downward decline.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    DavidL said:

    Rubbish. The Russian army has barely held its own against largely untrained Ukrainian militias.
    Russian forces only fully invaded Crimea which are now under Russian control, the rest was support for pro Russian separatists.

    The Russian armed forces are 900,000 strong, France and the UK's combined only around 350,000 strong
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420

    75 English hospital deaths reported:

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

    Almost all were recent deaths but still much down on previous Saturdays.

    The total for the last five days was 69.

    Compared with 100, 143, 167, 174 (reduced by bank holiday reporting) and 316 for the Saturdays in May.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    Foxy said:

    Indeed, I think it very likely that DavidL will be back in the EU, well before those of us south of Berwick are.
    Worst of all worlds!
    From his pov obvs.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    On topic - I think the thread header is mostly spot on. I would add one thing. I think there will be a push to repeal the 22nd Amendment and the bar on a third term, for a few reasons.

    Firstly, it would drive Democrats nuts. This is useful as a distraction as much as anything. Secondly it's a step to normalizing the idea of a Trump third term - whether that's ultimately achieved by another route or not. Thirdly, it acts as a loyalty test for Republicans - which could be helpful in terms of support for a Trump-friendly candidate in 2024. Finally it acts as a mobilising tool for the midterms (though this is a double-edged effect).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541
    edited June 2020

    'Recognising' is a term that implies something is the whole truth. Given that I don't agree that you have 'the whole truth', I am saying that what you term 'recognition' is better termed searching and finding. You believe something, and life provides you with evidence of it. It's the same for all of us - it's why we just don't *get* how those other people can believe that thing when all the evidence screams to the contrary.
    Not the whole truth - that is beyond our ken - just a small but important part of it. Important because it handicaps the understanding of certain things if it is omitted. There's a risk of over-intellectualizing this stuff imo.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950

    The UK was finished off by the lop-sided New Labour devolution scheme, a masterpiece of strategic political ineptitude which sundered Blair's country and his party along with it.

    All that saved the Union in 2014 was Scotland's budget deficit and the financing thereof by the English taxpayer. The moment that Scottish public spending ceases to be critically reliant on subsidy is the moment that the Scottish electorate will go stampeding for the exit door. It's merely a matter of time.
    That really is an insult to the 2m+ Scots who were proud to call themselves British and voted accordingly.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    I don't expect to see any of these but no, I wouldn't fight to reconstitute the UK if democratically made decisions had resulted in it breaking up. But I would greatly regret the passing of the land of my birth and am convinced that Scotland would be much the poorer, economically, socially, politically and culturally for it.
    Were that to come about, why would you be disinclined to persuade Scotland to change its mind? There would be many who would want further Referendums at later dates to ascertain whether people stood by their decision - particularly if things went 'tits up'.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420

    Had a quick look for myself, down almost 50% relative to the 146 reported last Saturday. The death figures are still in steady downward decline.
    It would be good if those people who loudly predicted a second wave would be caused by the VE bank holiday weekend would acknowledge their mistake and show some relief at being wrong.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    It would be good if those people who loudly predicted a second wave would be caused by the VE bank holiday weekend would acknowledge their mistake and show some relief at being wrong.
    They would, but they're too busy protesting in Parliament Square right now...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950
    HYUFD said:

    Russian forces only fully invaded Crimea which are now under Russian control, the rest was support for pro Russian separatists.

    The Russian armed forces are 900,000 strong, France and the UK's combined only around 350,000 strong
    I think that they would struggle to beat Poland.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    kinabalu said:

    This is at the heart of why I expect a clear defeat for him.

    Group 1 - Voted for him in 2016 with a certain reluctance but having experienced 4 years of him do not do so in 2020.

    Group 2 - Did not support him in 2016 but are sufficiently impressed by the reality of him in office to vote for him in 2020.

    Group 1 will imo be bigger than Group 2.
    I predicted that Trump would either be very good or very bad.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    Off topic - masks. I finally made myself a mask which I wore for the first time today.

    This was a monumental hassle - mostly because of adjusting it so that it didn't fog up my glasses.

    It reminded me of how I felt when I first used a condom. I know it's the right thing to do. I know it's important. I think that people who refuse to wear one for superficial reasons are acting irresponsibly. And yet I hated it and really don't want to do it.

    I'll accept pretty much any practical alternative action that means I don't have to wear a mask.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    The total for the last five days was 69.

    Compared with 100, 143, 167, 174 (reduced by bank holiday reporting) and 316 for the Saturdays in May.
    The usual graphs I generate -

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited June 2020
    Foxy said:

    Indeed, I think it very likely that DavidL will be back in the EU, well before those of us south of Berwick are.
    I doubt it, the latest Scottish independence poll this week has Yes on 48% including Don't Knows, little different to the 45% who voted Yes in 2014 before Brexit
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,436

    They would, but they're too busy protesting in Parliament Square right now...
    how do we know it isn't making a difference? Perhaps the second wave was really a lengthening of the tail. There must be some reason the numbers are holding out.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    The total for the last five days was 69.

    Compared with 100, 143, 167, 174 (reduced by bank holiday reporting) and 316 for the Saturdays in May.
    Is there any indication that better treatment is improving the death rate I wonder? Is is it all down to reduced infection rate?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited June 2020
    DavidL said:

    I think that they would struggle to beat Poland.
    To beat Russia all the armed forces of NATO in Europe, France, the UK, Germany, Poland, Spain and Italy would need to combine and even then success is not guaranteed without US support
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2020

    They would, but they're too busy protesting in Parliament Square right now...
    It is absolute madness....also, i think worth pointing out that one concern about advocating masks was people would feel safe, i keep seeing twitter saying well most of these people are wearing them, so they will be ok.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,130
    edited June 2020
    DavidL said:

    That really is an insult to the 2m+ Scots who were proud to call themselves British and voted accordingly.
    All the people who voted No in 2014 were proud to call themselves British? Somewhat roseate (& blue & white) tinted specs I think. On that basis the most recent poll suggests close to 400k of them have stopped being proud.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485

    Your first statement is dangerously casual and the thought fills me with dread.

    If Putin decided he wanted the Baltic States back and while he was at it fancied Spain and Portugal too, he has the personnel, the equipment and the firepower to march through Central Western Europe like a knife through butter. Why he has resisted in the past is the expectation that the USA would rain fire and brimstone across his empire. If the POTUS is indeed in Putin's pocket we are buggered.
    Just one question - why?

    USSR vs. the West was a clash of ideologies. The USSR would have gladly forcibly subjected the world to Marxist communism if the opportunity arose, so I can believe they would want to invade Western Europe. Putin's Russia to invade - why? Not enough land mass? Not enough natural resources?

    I see post-communist Russia's geopolitical aims as fairly consistent - de facto or de jure rule over all its bordering entities, as a strong defence against encroachment by the US and allies. Ruthless in crushing both internal and external threats. To do this they use fair means or foul. All their behaviour over recent years sits quite comfortably within that narrative.

    What will amuse me is if China becomes the new enemy and it becomes necessary to schmooze Russia again. How quickly the gay activists, Ukrainians, Syrian rebels etc. will be dropped and forgotten when there's a new bogeyman du jour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950
    justin124 said:

    Were that to come about, why would you be disinclined to persuade Scotland to change its mind? There would be many who would want further Referendums at later dates to ascertain whether people stood by their decision - particularly if things went 'tits up'.
    I would for Scotland. I would not for NI or Wales. That is a matter for those that live there.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    MaxPB said:

    His Twitter profile should be a mandatory follow for all journalists allowed to ask the government questions. It would cut down on the amount of disinformation we see from the media.

    Sadly, though, the main reason for poor statistics reporting in the media is the government reporting of them. The fact that the government is still using the same idiotic reporting date and 7 day average trend line is both lamentable and unrepresentative of the current situation. I'm not saying they should do a Spain and report on yesterday and nothing else, but the report should now move to date of death not date of reporting. The fact that we won't know when the 350 or so deaths reported yesterday actually occured until the ONS report comes out in three weeks is no longer acceptable.

    It's quite likely we're recording fewer than 100 community deaths per day at this stage and falling but the picture painted by the official government statistics is completely different and wrong.
    I use another site which is just figures. The commentary is unnecessary, I don’t need anyone putting their spin on what I can see for myself.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2020
    Placards carried by demonstrators reference the coronavirus crisis, with one that says:

    There is a virus greater than Covid-19 and it’s called racism.

    Desk, head, thud....when your granddad is in ICU with coronavirus, try telling him that.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    I would for Scotland. I would not for NI or Wales. That is a matter for those that live there.
    That's fair enough!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    It would be good if those people who loudly predicted a second wave would be caused by the VE bank holiday weekend would acknowledge their mistake and show some relief at being wrong.
    I was nervous about the VE shenanigans, though I don't think I said it would lead to a second wave.

    I am relieved that it hasn't, and it's another piece of evidence for outdoor activity being much safer than indoors. I think there's no justification on any further restrictions on outdoor activities - with the possible exception of communal singing, chanting, etc. Loud protests and sport crowds might be a risk.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,015


    I predicted that Trump would either be very good or very bad.
    Well you were half right - well done.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Placards carried by demonstrators reference the coronavirus crisis, with one that says:

    There is a virus greater than Covid-19 and it’s called racism.

    Desk, head, thud....when your granddad is in ICU with coronavirus, try telling him that.

    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513

    What will amuse me is if China becomes the new enemy and it becomes necessary to schmooze Russia again. How quickly the gay activists, Ukrainians, Syrian rebels etc. will be dropped and forgotten when there's a new bogeyman du jour.

    You have that back to front. The question is what Russia will do when it realises that China is a threat. You may find all the propaganda about Europe being "Gayropa", Ukrainians being Nazis, and so on, gets dropped as Russia realises its strategic interests lie in Western integration.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541
    MaxPB said:

    In my experience people who aren't racist have no need to advertise that fact.
    As a general rule I think people should be judged on behaviour only. What they think and feel does not matter if it stays within.

    For example -

    Mr A - a politician who has no racist feelings or beliefs but who dog whistles like crazy to attract the racist vote.

    Mr B - a politician who believes in white supremacy but never says so, never writes so, never indicates so externally in any way.

    A is a racist. B is not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    edited June 2020

    Just one question - why?

    USSR vs. the West was a clash of ideologies. The USSR would have gladly forcibly subjected the world to Marxist communism if the opportunity arose, so I can believe they would want to invade Western Europe. Putin's Russia to invade - why? Not enough land mass? Not enough natural resources?

    I see post-communist Russia's geopolitical aims as fairly consistent - de facto or de jure rule over all its bordering entities, as a strong defence against encroachment by the US and allies. Ruthless in crushing both internal and external threats. To do this they use fair means or foul. All their behaviour over recent years sits quite comfortably within that narrative.

    What will amuse me is if China becomes the new enemy and it becomes necessary to schmooze Russia again. How quickly the gay activists, Ukrainians, Syrian rebels etc. will be dropped and forgotten when there's a new bogeyman du jour.
    China is less of a direct threat to us in terms of invasion (beyond covid of course), it is on the other side of the world and a different continent and India and Japan in any case would be more viable allies against Beijing than Russia
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2020

    I was nervous about the VE shenanigans, though I don't think I said it would lead to a second wave.

    I am relieved that it hasn't, and it's another piece of evidence for outdoor activity being much safer than indoors. I think there's no justification on any further restrictions on outdoor activities - with the possible exception of communal singing, chanting, etc. Loud protests and sport crowds might be a risk.
    If it is as the recent paper suggests, 20% of people are responsible for 80% of the spread, i was guess having 10 people meet outside for a cup of tea and then back in the house for the next 2 weeks limits the potential spread somewhat

    10,000 people, from all over London. all crammed together for hours on end, screaming and shouting, is different level of potential risk.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,190

    Is there any indication that better treatment is improving the death rate I wonder? Is is it all down to reduced infection rate?
    No reason to think it isn't essentially infection rate. Numbers have been falling by 25 - 30 % a week since the peak. One of the tricky things in the next couple of months is going to be distinguishing changes of trend from random noise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950

    All the people who voted No in 2014 were proud to call themselves British? Somewhat roseate (& blue & white) tinted specs I think. On that basis the most recent poll suggests close to 400k of them have stopped being proud.
    But according to that polling company you won in 2014 so this is academic. What I think would be obvious is that without the resources being a part of a larger unit with the ability to print its own money has been absolutely key to our coping with the economic damage of CV and we would have been in a very, very bad place had the vote in 2014 gone differently.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819

    Off topic - masks. I finally made myself a mask which I wore for the first time today.

    This was a monumental hassle - mostly because of adjusting it so that it didn't fog up my glasses.

    It reminded me of how I felt when I first used a condom. I know it's the right thing to do. I know it's important. I think that people who refuse to wear one for superficial reasons are acting irresponsibly. And yet I hated it and really don't want to do it.

    I'll accept pretty much any practical alternative action that means I don't have to wear a mask.

    Use micropore tape along the upper border, it will keep your glasses clear, and you won't need to touch your mask to reposition it.

    I do it every day...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,541


    I predicted that Trump would either be very good or very bad.
    You were at least on the right lines with "very bad".

    I must admit he is surprised even me on the downside.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,369

    It's not sustainable. The UK isn't a Canada or an Australia, or even a Switzerland.
    The UK can operate just fine outside the EU. It's been going strong for over 300 years.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2020
    Looks like antibody testing has reached capacity now, running at the full 41k/day. Will take a while to get through all NHS staff at that rate.

    Mailed tests at 90k again, still not seen a good explanation where those are going - that number doubled overnight a few days back, which perhaps suggests they're being used for some new centrally directed programme.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,133

    How much experience did John Major have? He turned out OK under very trying circumstances....
    IPSOS_MORI had Kinnock rated more inexperienced than Major by 29-24 in their last poll before the 92 GE. Previously they had been tied
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513
    Sean_F said:

    The UK can operate just fine outside the EU. It's been going strong for over 300 years.
    We're approaching the centenary of its partial dissolution. Hardly going strong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    And now we cross to an area where R could be above 1....

    More now from from the Black Lives Matter protest in Manchester - and a BBC reporter at the scene around Piccadilly Gardens estimates that the crowd has reached 15,000 and is still growing.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    I was nervous about the VE shenanigans, though I don't think I said it would lead to a second wave.

    I am relieved that it hasn't, and it's another piece of evidence for outdoor activity being much safer than indoors. I think there's no justification on any further restrictions on outdoor activities - with the possible exception of communal singing, chanting, etc. Loud protests and sport crowds might be a risk.
    VE day was 0.1% of what we’ve seen in the last week.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,369
    DavidL said:

    Russia could probably put together an army of 50-60,000 to mount an invasion, outside of its borders. That would not get them very far into Europe.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513

    And now we cross to an area where R could be above 1....

    More now from from the Black Lives Matter protest in Manchester - and a BBC reporter at the scene around Piccadilly Gardens estimates that the crowd has reached 15,000 and is still growing.

    "Viral Reproduction Matters"
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    That really is an insult to the 2m+ Scots who were proud to call themselves British and voted accordingly.
    Oh, I dare say there's a minority who cared but don't go pretending that money wasn't the governing factor for the balancing portion of the electorate in the middle.

    The Union is primarily now a transactional arrangement in which politicians in London, who are worried about stuff like their ability to strut the international stage, keep a seat on the Security Council and wave about their nuclear missiles, hose Scotland down with cash to buy its loyalty.

    The Scottish people thus get extra goodies like freebie prescriptions, university tuition fees and personal care for the aged without having to cough up for them. All the English people get is the bill.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    I bet the Chinese are pointing and laughing at the west's behaviour over the past 2 weeks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,369
    edited June 2020

    The British protests essentially say that dicriumination and indifference towards black people is endemic in the UK as well, and the US events are simply the latest example of a general phenomenon. The examples that a couple of us have given here of black drivers being routinely stopped by police and asked to show proof that they have a right to drive their cars are a small illustration. I could give more, but suspect you would either not believe me or dismiss them as anecdotal.

    I think the demos are a stretch, because the position in the US is xlearly worse, but they're not imbecilic, and I know two people who have said that it's made them have a think about their own atttitudes and how they might improve them.
    Perhaps, but unlike the UK version of Black Lives Matter, I'm unpersuaded that a man like Mark Duggan should be considered a martyr, or that we should be ending the deportation of illegal immigrants.
This discussion has been closed.