politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting inten
Comments
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Don't both have a point?williamglenn said:
The black lady is correct that more should be done to stop the inequality that causes black on black gang crime, whilst the white protestor is concerned with the racism of the American establishment0 -
Why is the Lancet always treated with such veneration? They sometimes give the impression of publishing any old rubbish that causes a hell of a lot of trouble when debunked. Weren't they the publishers of the original Wakefield MMR stuff? Do they see themselves as a genuinely impartial medical journal, or are they partial to promoting a bit of controversy to get themselves noticed...?FrancisUrquhart said:The World Health Organization (WHO) is resuming its trial of hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment for coronavirus.
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Best combination.TheScreamingEagles said:
Liverpool/Tranmere fans.another_richard said:
Were they Everton fans ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Neither of my in-laws liked me.squareroot2 said:
Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.Andrew said:Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.
Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.
I don't know why a couple of socialist working class plastic Scousers didn't like me?
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On topic, it's possible to think a leader of a party you'd never vote for is doing a good job1
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Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.1 -
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.0 -
Boris Johnson is fighting on many fronts – but it’s the Scotland Question that could finish him
- Why the biggest challenge to Johnson’s administration is the Scottish parliament election
“Although No 10’s official position is that the Prime Minister would simply refuse to grant the Scottish government the right to hold another vote, most believe that position is contingent on public opinion north of the border.
“We can reject a referendum as long as holding another one remains a priority only for the SNP’s conference floor,” one minister said to me recently. “Once it becomes an issue of fairness for the average Scottish voter, we’re in trouble.”
The Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland doesn’t concern most MPs, but the Union between England and Scotland certainly does“
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-fighting-many-fronts-it-s-scotland-question-could-finish-him0 -
Fair enough - appreciate the response.Barnesian said:
No I haven't. I believe that the UK government is relying on data on deaths which is very out of date for an estimate of current infection rates i.e. current R. They don't explain their methodolgy so I can't benchmark.
My methodology is similar to the German government methodology I believe. It is simple. I can do it for every region and every borough. I only do it for England and London because it is a fair amount of work extracting the data which can be found here.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
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Social distancing in the Netherlands makes our protestors look downright cautious.
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/12682487188867358730 -
I think we've hit peak Guardian.
Apparently, Britain invented racism:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/03/racism-george-floyd-britain-america-uk-black-people1 -
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?1 -
The notes say:BannedinnParis said:
28th May - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888353/2020-05-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdfBannedinnParis said:
government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.solarflare said:
Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?Barnesian said:glw said:
I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.Barnesian said:
My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.Ave_it said:I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠
England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.
The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.
e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
Slide 7
Current R: R is not usually a useful measure on its own and needs to be considered alongside the number of new cases. R is the average number of secondary cases directly generated by an individual case. The R number does not estimate how many people are currently infected. R is estimated from multiple data sources, including ICU/hospital admissions, ONS/CQC death figures, behavioural contact surveys, and others.
My bold.
I don't see how it can be Current R. It must be a historical figure. My method I believe gives the most up-to-date picture but I'm not a member of SAGE. Their method will undoubtedly be more complicated and sophisticated and more difficult to understand or critique.
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Looting has never had anything to do with protest, justified or otherwise. Looting is pure and simple criminality and the perpetrators should be dealt with severely. Looters destroy the livelihoods of hard working people. There is never any excuse for looting.TimT said:
I could see a reasonable person concluding:noneoftheabove said:
Of course it doesnt "justify" it, its a cry for help because they have tried everything else for decades and centuries with progress very slow.eadric said:
I watched the awful video of Floyd dying. I get the anger. I think vigorous protest is correct and fury is understandable,NickPalmer said:
Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.eadric said:
There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)BluestBlue said:
America really has gone mad...Alistair said:54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19
https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21
How is the question being asked, in each case?
The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
But I doubt a majority of Americans really believe that awful killing justifies ‘burning down a police precinct’; and if you look at the data the questions are leading and emotive and the numbers are vague.
Eg what does it mean if you think burning down a police precinct is ‘partly justified’? Does it mean you think they should only have burned down one room?
I suspect this is Americans who share and sympathies with the righteous anger, but also believe the violence went too far
1. The anger is justifiable and thus sympathize with it
2. Looting is wrong, but nothing in comparison to the injustices visited upon those black people whose lives have been taken by the police, and perhaps even understandable as a means of getting this issue the attention it needs even while being wrong
3. Law and order must be imposed at some point, and so the use of the military to do so if needed is supportable.
I am not saying that those are my positions (I agree with 1 and 2, not 3), but that it would be perfectly rational for someone to believe all three.6 -
It's a French thing.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?
From Wiki:
The name Arkansas was initially applied to the Arkansas River. It derives from a French term, Arcansas, their plural term for their transliteration of akansa, an Algonquian term for the Quapaw people.[12] These were a Dhegiha Siouan-speaking people who settled in Arkansas around the 13th century. akansa is likely also the root term for Kansas.[12]
The name has been pronounced and spelled in a variety of fashions.[c] In 1881, the state legislature defined the official pronunciation of Arkansas as having the final "s" be silent (as it would be in French). A dispute had arisen between the state's two senators over the pronunciation issue. One favored pronunciation as /ˈɑːrkənsɔː/ AR-kən-saw while the other favored /ɑːrˈkænzəs/ ar-KAN-zəs.[c]
In 2007, the state legislature passed a non-binding resolution declaring that the possessive form of the state's name is Arkansas's, which has been followed increasingly by the state government.[14]0 -
You'll love this, it's the bloody French...TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-we-pronounce-kansas-and-arkansas-differently-2014-20 -
The beauty of the English language? But it's presumably not or is it? Have a little drinkie and settle down.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?0 -
China’s Huawei Technologies acted to cover up its relationship with a firm that had tried to sell prohibited U.S. computer gear to Iran, after Reuters in 2013 reported deep links between the firm and the telecom-equipment giant’s chief financial officer, newly obtained internal Huawei documents show.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-iran-probe-exclusive/exclusive-huawei-hid-business-operation-in-iran-after-reuters-reported-links-to-cfo-idUSKBN23A19B0 -
If they were all observing the 2m guidelines, none.Scott_xP said:1 -
Very pleased, if surprised, that the Minneapolis DA is reading the PB message board.Philip_Thompson said:Good to see the three other officers have been charged with Aiding and Abetting a murder now. I've been calling for this all week and its belated but quite right that all 4 officers are now facing criminal charges.
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Virtually all these protesters in London today will be on benefits! They don't work.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
Decent taxpayers have to pay for them while they spread Covid 19 everywhere!0 -
OoopsFrancisUrquhart said:China’s Huawei Technologies acted to cover up its relationship with a firm that had tried to sell prohibited U.S. computer gear to Iran, after Reuters in 2013 reported deep links between the firm and the telecom-equipment giant’s chief financial officer, newly obtained internal Huawei documents show.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-iran-probe-exclusive/exclusive-huawei-hid-business-operation-in-iran-after-reuters-reported-links-to-cfo-idUSKBN23A19B
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/03/exclusive-coronavirus-began-accident-disease-escaped-chinese/0 -
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1267879200855396355RobD said:If they were all observing the 2m guidelines, none.
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A small US sports subplot
Fascinating tweet given this is in reply to his quarterback Drew Brees who has said he can't understand anyone disrespecting the American flag.
Brees is the quarterback and Thomas perhaps the best wide receiver in the entire NFL at the New Orleans Saints so could be some pre-season tension...
https://twitter.com/Cantguardmike/status/12682207720463073330 -
Was Arkansas originally in the French bit of America? That would explain it.alterego said:
The beauty of the English language? But it's presumably not or is it? Have a little drinkie and settle down.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?
Edit: just seen @RobD 's post.0 -
Pulpstar said:
A small US sports subplot
Fascinating tweet given this is in reply to his quarterback Drew Brees who has said he can't understand anyone disrespecting the American flag.
Brees is the quarterback and Thomas perhaps the best wide receiver in the entire NFL at the New Orleans Saints so could be some pre-season tension...
https://twitter.com/Cantguardmike/status/1268220772046307333
https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1268206174073126915?s=200 -
That’s a remarkable claim. Do you have any evidence to support it?Ave_it said:
Virtually all these protesters in London today will be on benefits! They don't work.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
Decent taxpayers have to pay for them while they spread Covid 19 everywhere!0 -
I'm shocked but I'm sure Mr President will be pleased - two birds ......FrancisUrquhart said:China’s Huawei Technologies acted to cover up its relationship with a firm that had tried to sell prohibited U.S. computer gear to Iran, after Reuters in 2013 reported deep links between the firm and the telecom-equipment giant’s chief financial officer, newly obtained internal Huawei documents show.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-iran-probe-exclusive/exclusive-huawei-hid-business-operation-in-iran-after-reuters-reported-links-to-cfo-idUSKBN23A19B
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though, bough, tough, cough, ought is all I have to say on that.RobD said:
You'll love this, it's the bloody French...TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-we-pronounce-kansas-and-arkansas-differently-2014-20 -
The bloody French!RobD said:
You'll love this, it's the bloody French...TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-we-pronounce-kansas-and-arkansas-differently-2014-20 -
And "cleave" might mean splitting from "nave" to "chops", but "cleaving to" someone means giving them a hug. English is a miraculous bastard language.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?0 -
According to track and trace, should the whole cabinet not self isolate now?2
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And if we're being traditional, hiccough.TimT said:
though, bough, tough, cough, ought is all I have to say on that.RobD said:
You'll love this, it's the bloody French...TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-we-pronounce-kansas-and-arkansas-differently-2014-21 -
By all means lead by example, sir/madam. On topic comments are not prohibited, just frowned upon, like saying MacBeth in a theatre.comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
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I like the meanings of 'enjoined'.Toms said:
And "cleave" might mean splitting from "nave" to "chops", but "cleaving to" someone means giving them a hug. English is a miraculous bastard language.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?0 -
It's been like that since time immemorial. These people are spongers. And now they are doing real damage to this country by spreading Covid mDougSeal said:
That’s a remarkable claim. Do you have any evidence to support it?Ave_it said:
Virtually all these protesters in London today will be on benefits! They don't work.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
Decent taxpayers have to pay for them while they spread Covid 19 everywhere!1 -
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And people seriously think we will be able to keep social distancing going indefinitely without a vaccine?Nigelb said:Social distancing in the Netherlands makes our protestors look downright cautious.
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/12682487188867358730 -
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Just to confuse things even more, there is an Arkansas City, Kansas, which is pronounced Ah-Kansas.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?4 -
The first wave can be blamed on the virus.alex_ said:Back on Priti Patel's leadership bid, er, quarantine. What were the penalties for breaking self isolation rules (with or without the virus)? They weren't £1000 were they? So why so harsh the second time around?
I get that nobody wants a "second wave". But it's almost as if the first wave wasn't important! No wonder we ended up with so many deaths!
A second wave can be blamed on the government.
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Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:1 -
The one that bugs me is when people pronounce trans in transport with a long ah, like "trance-port", but I'm yet to see anyone drive a "trance-it" van. Nor have I met any trance-sexuals, for that matter. Though perhaps I'm not visiting the right clubs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?1 -
For context we are talking 50 people. It is driven mainly by the Weston Super-Mare hospital incident, where they sampled the staff and found 40% of those tested had it asymptotically, and now they are testing wider.Scott_xP said:twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1268275764513906689
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Why just the cabinetScott_xP said:According to track and trace, should the whole cabinet not self isolate now?
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Ah, so it is one of those arguments.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.0 -
Yep - although as this as hospitals only it's not so bad, those numbers didn't expand quite so dramatically.another_richard said:
Though that doesn't show the effect of the limited amount of testing before May.
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Round of applause for JRM and yet another idiotic idea?2
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I know they insist they would not grant another under any circumstances, but I just don't think they can sustain that. I'd fear it being lost, but if they want one notwithstanding past events it cannot be put off long.StuartDickson said:Boris Johnson is fighting on many fronts – but it’s the Scotland Question that could finish him
- Why the biggest challenge to Johnson’s administration is the Scottish parliament election
“Although No 10’s official position is that the Prime Minister would simply refuse to grant the Scottish government the right to hold another vote, most believe that position is contingent on public opinion north of the border.
“We can reject a referendum as long as holding another one remains a priority only for the SNP’s conference floor,” one minister said to me recently. “Once it becomes an issue of fairness for the average Scottish voter, we’re in trouble.”
The Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland doesn’t concern most MPs, but the Union between England and Scotland certainly does“
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-fighting-many-fronts-it-s-scotland-question-could-finish-him0 -
Starmer will rebuild the Labour party ready for whenever, but Boris gets a second term in 2024.
Dominic Cummings' car ride will be forgotten by then. That story is just people clinging to the idea that things can go back to normal where a simple scandal dreamt up by an idiot can overturn someone's career. Meanwhile, oil's traded negative, Rice Futures have gone parabolic, the looting has only just started, the shootings are still to come, along with the global food shortages, and the endless chain of extreme action-extreme reaction within the longest depression in human history hasn't even begun. Boris won't be carrying the can for any of that, but by having to go face-to-face with every kind of shit imaginable, he'll hold on to a lot of 2019 voters.
Dilyn and Carrie are vote-winners too.0 -
Only if they haven't socially distanced. Why wouldn't they have socially distanced?Scott_xP said:According to track and trace, should the whole cabinet not self isolate now?
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Todays protest in London could be as bad as Cheltenham and so many BME in their numberNo_Offence_Alan said:
The first wave can be blamed on the virus.alex_ said:Back on Priti Patel's leadership bid, er, quarantine. What were the penalties for breaking self isolation rules (with or without the virus)? They weren't £1000 were they? So why so harsh the second time around?
I get that nobody wants a "second wave". But it's almost as if the first wave wasn't important! No wonder we ended up with so many deaths!
A second wave can be blamed on the government.0 -
If you are told to by NHS test and trace. You dont know who it is (although they may be able to guess its Sharma, it could be someone else as well), so wont know how close you were to them.RobD said:
Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:0 -
Sanction - to sanction someone, vs to sanction an action.Toms said:
And "cleave" might mean splitting from "nave" to "chops", but "cleaving to" someone means giving them a hug. English is a miraculous bastard language.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to let you all into a little secret, in the past few days something has started to bug me even more than pineapple on pizza.kyf_100 said:
Yes, but where do you stand on pineapple on pizza?comradeogilvy said:Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.
This forum is not fit for purpose.
Why do we pronounce the 'Kansas' in Arkansas differently to Kansas?0 -
The cabinet room isn't big enough.Philip_Thompson said:Only if they haven't socially distanced. Why wouldn't they have socially distanced?
And JRM's conga line got jammed up.0 -
They'll keep insisting it until the day after the next Scottish Parliament election. Not granting one would be Scottish Tory policy at that election so there won't be any prevaricating on the matter.kle4 said:
I know they insist they would not grant another under any circumstances, but I just don't think they can sustain that. I'd fear it being lost, but if they want one notwithstanding past events it cannot be put off long.StuartDickson said:Boris Johnson is fighting on many fronts – but it’s the Scotland Question that could finish him
- Why the biggest challenge to Johnson’s administration is the Scottish parliament election
“Although No 10’s official position is that the Prime Minister would simply refuse to grant the Scottish government the right to hold another vote, most believe that position is contingent on public opinion north of the border.
“We can reject a referendum as long as holding another one remains a priority only for the SNP’s conference floor,” one minister said to me recently. “Once it becomes an issue of fairness for the average Scottish voter, we’re in trouble.”
The Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland doesn’t concern most MPs, but the Union between England and Scotland certainly does“
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-fighting-many-fronts-it-s-scotland-question-could-finish-him
If the SNP win a majority though then that'd be reason to change potentially. Whether they will then or not is another question, but it won't change before then.0 -
But in this case they do, so...noneoftheabove said:
If you are told to by NHS test and trace. You dont know who it is (although they may be able to guess its Sharma, it could be someone else as well), so wont know how close you were to them.RobD said:
Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:0 -
So no, no evidence at all.Ave_it said:
It's been like that since time immemorial. These people are spongers. And now they are doing real damage to this country by spreading Covid mDougSeal said:
That’s a remarkable claim. Do you have any evidence to support it?Ave_it said:
Virtually all these protesters in London today will be on benefits! They don't work.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
Decent taxpayers have to pay for them while they spread Covid 19 everywhere!0 -
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There were photos yesterday of people in parliament not distancing, so it would take a weird kind of blind faith to assume the cabinet have followed the rules.Philip_Thompson said:
Only if they haven't socially distanced. Why wouldn't they have socially distanced?Scott_xP said:According to track and trace, should the whole cabinet not self isolate now?
0 -
That’s your evidence? “These people are spongers?” I’m pretty sure John Boyega paid more to HM Treasury for the three Star Wars movies he was in than you will in a lifetime. I wasn’t there today but I’ve been on my share of protests - and I can assure you that I am no “sponger”.Ave_it said:
It's been like that since time immemorial. These people are spongers. And now they are doing real damage to this country by spreading Covid mDougSeal said:
That’s a remarkable claim. Do you have any evidence to support it?Ave_it said:
Virtually all these protesters in London today will be on benefits! They don't work.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
Decent taxpayers have to pay for them while they spread Covid 19 everywhere!3 -
When was that rule set ?noneoftheabove said:
Because I don't think anyone has ever been infected twice.0 -
Try to keep up Big G 😊Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why just the cabinetScott_xP said:According to track and trace, should the whole cabinet not self isolate now?
Starmer and Rayner have already self isolated- from making any meaningful contribution to Parliament!1 -
Maybe the Swedes aren't as stupid as many assume?DougSeal said:
And people seriously think we will be able to keep social distancing going indefinitely without a vaccine?Nigelb said:Social distancing in the Netherlands makes our protestors look downright cautious.
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/12682487188867358730 -
I would point out to OGH that while the leader with the best net approval rating normally wins the general election, the last leader who won while trailing on the best PM rating, where Boris still leads Starmer, but leading on net approval ie Thatcher when she won in 1979 also saw her party lead Callaghan's on voting intention too.
So leading on net approval is not enough, Starmer also needs to lead or at least tie on voting intention as well0 -
Good old Gateway Pundit.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Last week when it was launched. Was asked on one of the daily briefings.another_richard said:
When was that rule set ?noneoftheabove said:
Because I don't think anyone has ever been infected twice.2 -
Good post.HYUFD said:I would point out to OGH that while the leader with the best net approval rating normally wins the general election, the last leader who won while trailing on the best PM rating, where Boris still leads Starmer, but leading on net approval ie Thatcher when she won in 1979 also saw her party lead Callaghan's on voting intention too.
So leading on net approval is not enough, Starmer also needs to lead or at least tie on voting intention as well1 -
What's the current best estimate on active UK cases - 8,000 ?0
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Not active cases, new cases each day is ~8k (probably less now). But active cases is north of 100k.Pulpstar said:What's the current best estimate on active UK cases - 8,000 ?
0 -
Not at all, Sharma caught it from someone, call them Mr X. You might have been 3m from Sharma but 1m from Mr X.RobD said:
But in this case they do, so...noneoftheabove said:
If you are told to by NHS test and trace. You dont know who it is (although they may be able to guess its Sharma, it could be someone else as well), so wont know how close you were to them.RobD said:
Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:
0 -
Deaths are too high ... so let's have thousands of people go on a mass protest to really turbocharge the spreadScott_xP said:
I look forward to every single one of them getting the Cummings witch-hunt treatment ... but I suspect the same people who considered that the crime of the century won't give a damn about their actions - and may even applaud them!2 -
Posts like Ave Its are just a pathetic attempt to divide without any basis in reality.DougSeal said:
That’s your evidence? “These people are spongers?” I’m pretty sure John Boyega paid more to HM Treasury for the three Star Wars movies he was in than you will in a lifetime. I wasn’t there today but I’ve been on my share of protests - and I can assure you that I am no “sponger”.Ave_it said:
It's been like that since time immemorial. These people are spongers. And now they are doing real damage to this country by spreading Covid mDougSeal said:
That’s a remarkable claim. Do you have any evidence to support it?Ave_it said:
Virtually all these protesters in London today will be on benefits! They don't work.Luckyguy1983 said:
Er, what? Of course people have a right to protest in general, they also have a right to drive to Durham in general. We weren't discussing what happens in general, we were discussing what happens during a pandemic. I presume you would agree that joining a mass protest carries considerably more danger than driving anywhere - even if (shock) the driver stops for a piss somewhere, so I assume you feel all the protestors should be dismissed from their jobs?CorrectHorseBattery said:
If they're breaking the rules then the law should intervene as appropriate, obviously attacking the Police is unacceptable.Luckyguy1983 said:
Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Not predicting, just pontificatingAve_it said:
I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:I think it will be a Hung Parliament.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
Decent taxpayers have to pay for them while they spread Covid 19 everywhere!1 -
That seems implausibly high for the situation today to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not active cases, new cases each day is ~8k (probably less now). But active cases is north of 100k.Pulpstar said:What's the current best estimate on active UK cases - 8,000 ?
How long is a case active for on average? I thought it was 7 to 14 days and new cases was 8k a couple of weeks ago (and been lower every day since then). I don't see how you can reach 100k active from there?0 -
Oh dear! I thought you PB Tories now considered the Cummings affair so last week.BluestBlue said:
Deaths are too high ... so let's have thousands of people go on a mass protest to really turbocharge its spreadScott_xP said:
I look forward to every single one of them getting the Cummings witch-hunt treatment ... but I suspect the same people who considered that the crime of the century won't give a damn about their actions.0 -
Rayner yes but do not underestimate Starmer even though Boris won today's PMQsAve_it said:
Try to keep up Big G 😊Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why just the cabinetScott_xP said:According to track and trace, should the whole cabinet not self isolate now?
Starmer and Rayner have already self isolated- from making any meaningful contribution to Parliament!0 -
But so could anyone.noneoftheabove said:
Not at all, Sharma caught it from someone, call them Mr X. You might have been 3m from Sharma but 1m from Mr X.RobD said:
But in this case they do, so...noneoftheabove said:
If you are told to by NHS test and trace. You dont know who it is (although they may be able to guess its Sharma, it could be someone else as well), so wont know how close you were to them.RobD said:
Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:
So is the whole country meant to self isolate because we might have been within 1m of an unknown Mr X ?0 -
7 to 14 days is when you are potentially infectious, but it can take much longer for you personally to get (seriously) ill.Philip_Thompson said:
That seems implausibly high for the situation today to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not active cases, new cases each day is ~8k (probably less now). But active cases is north of 100k.Pulpstar said:What's the current best estimate on active UK cases - 8,000 ?
How long is a case active for on average? I thought it was 7 to 14 days and new cases was 8k a couple of weeks ago (and been lower every day since then). I don't see how you can reach 100k active from there?0 -
Agreed. These demonstrators' actions will push the 50,000 up to 60,000+BluestBlue said:
Deaths are too high ... so let's have thousands of people go on a mass protest to really turbocharge the spreadScott_xP said:
I look forward to every single one of them getting the Cummings witch-hunt treatment ... but I suspect the same people who considered that the crime of the century won't give a damn about their actions.1 -
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So Ave ‘It says they’re all spongers but you imply that the protesters today are senior government advisers with a responsibility for setting the rules that public opinion considers to have been broken. Interesting takes from the right today.BluestBlue said:
Deaths are too high ... so let's have thousands of people go on a mass protest to really turbocharge the spreadScott_xP said:
I look forward to every single one of them getting the Cummings witch-hunt treatment ... but I suspect the same people who considered that the crime of the century won't give a damn about their actions.0 -
-
Still seems to be implausible to be north of 100k active.TheScreamingEagles said:
7 to 14 days is when you are potentially infectious, but it can take much longer for you personally to get (seriously) ill.Philip_Thompson said:
That seems implausibly high for the situation today to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not active cases, new cases each day is ~8k (probably less now). But active cases is north of 100k.Pulpstar said:What's the current best estimate on active UK cases - 8,000 ?
How long is a case active for on average? I thought it was 7 to 14 days and new cases was 8k a couple of weeks ago (and been lower every day since then). I don't see how you can reach 100k active from there?0 -
You are meant to self isolate if you are told to by NHS test and trace. It is that simple.another_richard said:
But so could anyone.noneoftheabove said:
Not at all, Sharma caught it from someone, call them Mr X. You might have been 3m from Sharma but 1m from Mr X.RobD said:
But in this case they do, so...noneoftheabove said:
If you are told to by NHS test and trace. You dont know who it is (although they may be able to guess its Sharma, it could be someone else as well), so wont know how close you were to them.RobD said:
Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:
So is the whole country meant to self isolate because we might have been within 1m of an unknown Mr X ?
Even though the government say we must do it, it is not a legal requirement, and those running the govt probably wont adhere to it themselves so do whatever you want.0 -
Turnout at the Holyrood elections will be important. An SNP win on a turnout of 45% - 50% - or even 55% would probably not be viewed by Westminster as having sufficient moral force to override the result of a Referendum which saw a clear result on a turnout of nearly 85%.Philip_Thompson said:
They'll keep insisting it until the day after the next Scottish Parliament election. Not granting one would be Scottish Tory policy at that election so there won't be any prevaricating on the matter.kle4 said:
I know they insist they would not grant another under any circumstances, but I just don't think they can sustain that. I'd fear it being lost, but if they want one notwithstanding past events it cannot be put off long.StuartDickson said:Boris Johnson is fighting on many fronts – but it’s the Scotland Question that could finish him
- Why the biggest challenge to Johnson’s administration is the Scottish parliament election
“Although No 10’s official position is that the Prime Minister would simply refuse to grant the Scottish government the right to hold another vote, most believe that position is contingent on public opinion north of the border.
“We can reject a referendum as long as holding another one remains a priority only for the SNP’s conference floor,” one minister said to me recently. “Once it becomes an issue of fairness for the average Scottish voter, we’re in trouble.”
The Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland doesn’t concern most MPs, but the Union between England and Scotland certainly does“
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-fighting-many-fronts-it-s-scotland-question-could-finish-him
If the SNP win a majority though then that'd be reason to change potentially. Whether they will then or not is another question, but it won't change before then.0 -
Good opportunity to get rid of Rees Mogg i think0
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Granting a referendum won't automatically lead to a Yes vote.Philip_Thompson said:
They'll keep insisting it until the day after the next Scottish Parliament election. Not granting one would be Scottish Tory policy at that election so there won't be any prevaricating on the matter.kle4 said:
I know they insist they would not grant another under any circumstances, but I just don't think they can sustain that. I'd fear it being lost, but if they want one notwithstanding past events it cannot be put off long.StuartDickson said:Boris Johnson is fighting on many fronts – but it’s the Scotland Question that could finish him
- Why the biggest challenge to Johnson’s administration is the Scottish parliament election
“Although No 10’s official position is that the Prime Minister would simply refuse to grant the Scottish government the right to hold another vote, most believe that position is contingent on public opinion north of the border.
“We can reject a referendum as long as holding another one remains a priority only for the SNP’s conference floor,” one minister said to me recently. “Once it becomes an issue of fairness for the average Scottish voter, we’re in trouble.”
The Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland doesn’t concern most MPs, but the Union between England and Scotland certainly does“
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-fighting-many-fronts-it-s-scotland-question-could-finish-him
If the SNP win a majority though then that'd be reason to change potentially. Whether they will then or not is another question, but it won't change before then.1 -
-
Mate the referendum was on whether we wanted independence in 2014 not whether we wanted to never have a referendum ever again.justin124 said:
Turnout at the Holyrood elections will be important. An SNP win on a turnout of 45% - 50% - or even 55% would probably not be viewed by Westminster as having sufficient moral force to override the result of a Referendum which saw a clear result on a turnout of nearly 85%.Philip_Thompson said:
They'll keep insisting it until the day after the next Scottish Parliament election. Not granting one would be Scottish Tory policy at that election so there won't be any prevaricating on the matter.kle4 said:
I know they insist they would not grant another under any circumstances, but I just don't think they can sustain that. I'd fear it being lost, but if they want one notwithstanding past events it cannot be put off long.StuartDickson said:Boris Johnson is fighting on many fronts – but it’s the Scotland Question that could finish him
- Why the biggest challenge to Johnson’s administration is the Scottish parliament election
“Although No 10’s official position is that the Prime Minister would simply refuse to grant the Scottish government the right to hold another vote, most believe that position is contingent on public opinion north of the border.
“We can reject a referendum as long as holding another one remains a priority only for the SNP’s conference floor,” one minister said to me recently. “Once it becomes an issue of fairness for the average Scottish voter, we’re in trouble.”
The Union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland doesn’t concern most MPs, but the Union between England and Scotland certainly does“
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/boris-johnson-fighting-many-fronts-it-s-scotland-question-could-finish-him
If the SNP win a majority though then that'd be reason to change potentially. Whether they will then or not is another question, but it won't change before then.0 -
An interesting interpretation of that post Doug....DougSeal said:
So Ave ‘It says they’re all spongers but you imply that the protesters today are senior government advisers with a responsibility for setting the rules that public opinion considers to have been broken. Interesting takes from the right today.BluestBlue said:
Deaths are too high ... so let's have thousands of people go on a mass protest to really turbocharge the spreadScott_xP said:
I look forward to every single one of them getting the Cummings witch-hunt treatment ... but I suspect the same people who considered that the crime of the century won't give a damn about their actions.1 -
Whatever the size of Johnson’s Johnson it hasn’t held him back. Perhaps it really is what you do with it?Scott_xP said:-1 -
Sounds unworkable to me.noneoftheabove said:
You are meant to self isolate if you are told to by NHS test and trace. It is that simple.another_richard said:
But so could anyone.noneoftheabove said:
Not at all, Sharma caught it from someone, call them Mr X. You might have been 3m from Sharma but 1m from Mr X.RobD said:
But in this case they do, so...noneoftheabove said:
If you are told to by NHS test and trace. You dont know who it is (although they may be able to guess its Sharma, it could be someone else as well), so wont know how close you were to them.RobD said:
Only if you've been within 2m, right?noneoftheabove said:
So is the whole country meant to self isolate because we might have been within 1m of an unknown Mr X ?
Even though the government say we must do it, it is not a legal requirement, and those running the govt probably wont adhere to it themselves so do whatever you want.0
