Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting inten
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting intention poll leads
The latest weekly poll from Opinium the the Observer had the Conservatives with a 4% lead while at the same time the same poll gave Starmer net 30% lead over Johnson in its approval question. On the face of it these two statements about this poll simply don’t make sense. The head of a party in the lead on voting would not, surely, have approval numbers that were so far off.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
(First to post).
On topic: Sharp piece, Mike.
Off topic: Does anyone know who is behind Black Lives Matter UK?
For an organisation trying to raise half a million via a Crowd Funder, they seem very anonymous. Go Fund Me require a named individual on the campaign, and they don't seem to have one (unless I missed it).
It is continuous with the (all white iirc) clowns who blocked the City London Airport with the same slogan in 2016. There were whispers then that it was an SWP front, like Stop the War.
Is it still, and where is the half million going? They have already reached 220k.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/ukblm-fund?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link&utm_campaign=p_cf+share-flow-1&fbclid=IwAR36hg81L1BCDW2OlIK62JOTecXapdX5aIB8CjKtVWAuXjwpQRAug8Sk-OY
BTW: “Whoever saves one life saves the world entire.” - the Talmud, as quoted in Schindler's List.
Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.
England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.
The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/joe-biden-nears-democratic-party-presidential-nomination-june-2-primaries/
He'll be there in a week.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19
Give your pathetic bloodthirsty keyboard warmongering a fucking rest.
I'm certainly no supporter of burning Police stations or anywhere else but you can certainly put me in the 78% of those who think the anger justified.
Unfortunately, I fear little or nothing will change - I hope I'm wrong.
The Justified figure comes from combining the "wholly justified" and "partially justified" figures together
Gavin Newlands admonished for dress code.
We've come a long way from "intern all Muslims" to "just shoot everybody".
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218461139935234?s=20
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218462222123008?s=20
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218464818417664?s=20
The Los Angeles curfew is being loosened this evening. It's gone from 6pm to 6am yesterday, to 9pm to 5am today.
Which hopefully means I will be able to order takeout this evening.
The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.
In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.
We'll see if this is just a statistical anomaly but I'm concerned. I draw no comfort from pretty lines on graphs going back to April - it's where we are here and now that matters not where we were two months ago.
https://twitter.com/robferdman/status/1267245846384586754?s=20
To be honest I'm not entirely certain what practical purpose these conventions actually serve (yes yes, to confirm nominations etc) - does anything unexpected and substantive actually occur at them? Or are they really just gaudy displays? I guess our party conferences are a million miles off.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1268268962359500800?s=20
The best representation of the current picture seems to be the graph below (coronavirus.data.gov.uk), showing hospital positives on date of specimen. If there's going to be an uptick we'll see it there long before it appears in the death stats.
I don't know why a couple of socialist working class plastic Scousers didn't like me?
e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation
https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1268268816527757318
02/06/2020 20
01/06/2020 47
31/05/2020 18
30/05/2020 5
29/05/2020 9
28/05/2020 1
27/05/2020 3
26/05/2020 3
25/05/2020 1
24/05/2020 2
23/05/2020 3
22/05/2020 2
21/05/2020 2
20/05/2020 1
19/05/2020 2
18/05/2020 5
17/05/2020 2
16/05/2020 4
15/05/2020 2
14/05/2020 3
13/05/2020 1
12/05/2020 1
11/05/2020 2
10/05/2020 1
09/05/2020 2
08/05/2020 2
07/05/2020 5
06/05/2020 1
02/05/2020 1
30/04/2020 1
28/04/2020 1
26/04/2020 1
23/04/2020 1
22/04/2020 1
20/04/2020 1
16/04/2020 1
15/04/2020 1
14/04/2020 1
13/04/2020 1
12/04/2020 3
11/04/2020 1
10/04/2020 2
09/04/2020 1
08/04/2020 2
05/04/2020 1
03/04/2020 1
02/04/2020 2
01/04/2020 1
31/03/2020 1
30/03/2020 1
24/03/2020 1
This forum is not fit for purpose.
I'll give you a clue. This isn't a forum.
:-)
The ONS excess deaths would hit 250K in a single day....
Self isolate means stay at home. Do not drive 350 miles to a country retreat (with or without planning permission).
If you feel the need to test your eyesight for a drive, wait til the opticians open and use a government driver in the mean time.
Hope that helps.
Charges against Officer Chauvin raised to 2nd degree murder.
Other 3 "aiding and abetting homicide."
https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1267977010909007877
We used to get stopped, on average, once a week.
1. The anger is justifiable and thus sympathize with it
2. Looting is wrong, but nothing in comparison to the injustices visited upon those black people whose lives have been taken by the police, and perhaps even understandable as a means of getting this issue the attention it needs even while being wrong
3. Law and order must be imposed at some point, and so the use of the military to do so if needed is supportable.
I am not saying that those are my positions (I agree with 1 and 2, not 3), but that it would be perfectly rational for someone to believe all three.
Slide 7
For those who want to see less looting, by far the best way of achieving that is treating people with equal respect and dignity, recognising when the system is heavily biased against groups and committing to changing that. Thats what will work, not sending in Rambo.
I will support the right to protest in general and I wonder if you are going to use this to smear all protestors.
My methodology is similar to the German government methodology I believe. It is simple. I can do it for every region and every borough. I only do it for England and London because it is a fair amount of work extracting the data which can be found here.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I get that nobody wants a "second wave". But it's almost as if the first wave wasn't important! No wonder we ended up with so many deaths!