politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson can take little comfort from the Tory voting inten

brokenwheel said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

brokenwheel said:

eristdoof said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

brokenwheel said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/1268217398861193223

I guess the kneeling didn't work.

Willy Brandt knelt in Warsaw:

"Unter der Last der jüngsten Geschichte tat ich, was Menschen tun, wenn die Worte versagen. So gedachte ich Millionen Ermordeter."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kniefall_von_Warschau

Somebody got called an anti-semite and racist on this forum yesterday for mentioning this.

Well Sunil said this immediately after learning i'm Jewish, I'll let you read between the lines.

https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2888009#Comment_2888009

If people wish to virtue-signal about racism I'm more than happy to point out their own.

What's racist about linking to a Time article about a riot in NYC in 1991?

For clarity, what I wrote was:

@brokenwheel is probably old enough to remember this:

The incident that set off the 1991 Crown Heights riots was easy to pinpoint: on Aug. 19, a car driven by a Hasidic Jew hit and killed a young black child. As a private ambulance took the driver away from the scene and emergency responders worked to free the victim and another child pinned under the car, the area’s black and Jewish residents–who had long been tense neighbors–erupted in anger. As TIME later noted, the result was the worst episode of racial violence in New York City city since 1968, after the death of Martin Luther King.
https://time.com/3989495/crown-heights-riots-time-magazine-history/

And what's racist about mentioning Willy Brandt KNEELING to commemorate and apologize for his nation's treatment of European Jews during the War?

Someone mentions they are a jew and the first thing you do is post an article about a jew murdering a black person and you don't understand how that is a teeny bit racist?

Er, steady on! Who says it was a deliberate act of murder?

BTW: “Whoever saves one life saves the world entire.” - the Talmud, as quoted in Schindler's List.

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

IshmaelZ said:

There's an argument someone hinted at the other day that there's a sunk cost fallacy bias in VI - voters regard their vote in December as an investment they are not yet reconciled to writing off - whereas leader approval lacks the same bias.

yes, it is too early for that false memory of voting against BoZo to feature, but that will be a problem for pollsters later on this parliament.

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

TY let's hope it keeps low Barnesian

eadric said:

Ok, enough

Start shooting

https://twitter.com/dehennadavison/status/1268248395224842253?s=21

Second bottle commentary.

https://twitter.com/karlturnermp/status/1268259922845761537?s=21

eadric said:

Ok, enough

Start shooting

Or alternatively, just arrest the ones that are criminals.

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

I'll try. The first date is 23 March - the date of lockdown. Then it's daily thereafter.

IshmaelZ said:

FTP

(First to post).

Are there was me thinking you'd gone all Ulster Prod on us!

Andrew said:

Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

At least it will keep the contact tracers busy phoning up all the other MPs

Alistair said:

54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

America really has gone mad...

Canuck Noir on BBC2 at 9: Cardinal

Barnesian said:

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

I'll try. The first date is 23 March - the date of lockdown. Then it's daily thereafter.

Thank you.

eadric said:

Alistair said:

54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

I find that poll extremely hard to believe. Hmm

At the same time 58% support deploying troops to the streets so Americans can hold multiple views.

The Justified figure comes from combining the "wholly justified" and "partially justified" figures together

eadric said:

BluestBlue said:

Alistair said:

54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

America really has gone mad...

There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

How is the question being asked, in each case?

Different pollsters, just being reported by a poll agregator

stodge said:

Alistair said:

54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

Monmouth put Biden ahead of Trump 52-41 so make of that what you will.

I'm certainly no supporter of burning Police stations or anywhere else but you can certainly put me in the 78% of those who think the anger justified.

Unfortunately, I fear little or nothing will change - I hope I'm wrong.

Biden can't even win the support of all the people who think burning down police stations is justified. How does he win?

Paging Piers Moron...

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218461139935234?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218462222123008?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218464818417664?s=20

Hello all.

The Los Angeles curfew is being loosened this evening. It's gone from 6pm to 6am yesterday, to 9pm to 5am today.

Which hopefully means I will be able to order takeout this evening.

I'm sure burning down police stations will usher in the utopia and have no unintended consequences at all.

Andy_JS said:

eadric said:

Ok, enough

Start shooting

https://twitter.com/dehennadavison/status/1268248395224842253?s=21

There isn't any reason for protestors to be attacking the British police over something that happened 4,000 miles away in another country.

Quite. And that there are also things to protest here feels a little hollow since it was all provoked and inspired by the events, and very different context, of something that happened 4000 miles away in another country. Given that, at the very least there should be no problem remaining entirely peaceful.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andrew said:

Alok Sharma apparently feeling like sh** and being tested for the rona atm.

Going to make Rees-Mogg look kinda silly this, if he's positive they'll surely have to go back to the virtual parliament approach.

Jacob Rees-Mogg has turned the mother of parliaments into the mother-in-law of parliaments.

Some mother in laws are wonderful so I am told.

In normal times, a lovely moment..but coronavirus....this is utter madness.

https://twitter.com/robferdman/status/1267245846384586754?s=20

Tim_B said:

Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

Presumably they can make a crappy one happen in a few months.

To be honest I'm not entirely certain what practical purpose these conventions actually serve (yes yes, to confirm nominations etc) - does anything unexpected and substantive actually occur at them? Or are they really just gaudy displays? I guess our party conferences are a million miles off.

kle4 said:

Tim_B said:

Oh boy - the RNC has pulled the plug on the Republican convention in Charlotte. These things take years to organize. How can they make it happen in just a couple of months?

Presumably they can make a crappy one happen in a few months.

To be honest I'm not entirely certain what practical purpose these conventions actually serve (yes yes, to confirm nominations etc) - does anything unexpected and substantive actually occur at them? Or are they really just gaudy displays? I guess our party conferences are a million miles off.

It's basically a week of free advertising/campaigning.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/LegendaryEnergy/status/1268062728054177793

Hats off to her

FT back on the no deal drug shortages....

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1268268962359500800?s=20

stodge said:

Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

Those figures are worse than hopeless. Huge weekend effect, bank holidays, and weeks old data. Then you've got the time gap from infection - some of these deaths are from people infected in February.

The best representation of the current picture seems to be the graph below (coronavirus.data.gov.uk), showing hospital positives on date of specimen. If there's going to be an uptick we'll see it there long before it appears in the death stats.

FrancisUrquhart said:

FT back on the no deal drug shortages....

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1268268962359500800?s=20

My son cant get his meds now - where is the outrage from FT about shortages now?

eadric said:

NickPalmer said:

eadric said:

BluestBlue said:

Alistair said:

54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

America really has gone mad...

There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

How is the question being asked, in each case?

Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.

I watched the awful video of Floyd dying. I get the anger. I think vigorous protest is correct and fury is understandable,

But I doubt a majority of Americans really believe that awful killing justifies ‘burning down a police precinct’; and if you look at the data the questions are leading and emotive and the numbers are vague.

Eg what does it mean if you think burning down a police precinct is ‘partly justified’? Does it mean you think they should only have burned down one room?

I suspect this is Americans who share and sympathies with the righteous anger, but also believe the violence went too far

Of course it doesnt "justify" it, its a cry for help because they have tried everything else for decades and centuries with progress very slow.

rcs1000 said:

Hello all.

The Los Angeles curfew is being loosened this evening. It's gone from 6pm to 6am yesterday, to 9pm to 5am today.

Which hopefully means I will be able to order takeout this evening.

Quick trip out to skid row ?

Barnesian said:

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Paging Piers Moron...

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218461139935234?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218462222123008?s=20

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1268218464818417664?s=20

Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

We'll see if this is just a statistical anomaly but I'm concerned. I draw no comfort from pretty lines on graphs going back to April - it's where we are here and now that matters not where we were two months ago.

It was back dating. 80 new deaths from as far back as March were reported. -5/-4/-3 day totals all down.

Just to illustrate what is happening - this is the data reported today by NHS England for hospitals -

02/06/2020 20
01/06/2020 47
31/05/2020 18
30/05/2020 5
29/05/2020 9
28/05/2020 1
27/05/2020 3
26/05/2020 3
25/05/2020 1
24/05/2020 2
23/05/2020 3
22/05/2020 2
21/05/2020 2
20/05/2020 1
19/05/2020 2
18/05/2020 5
17/05/2020 2
16/05/2020 4
15/05/2020 2
14/05/2020 3
13/05/2020 1
12/05/2020 1
11/05/2020 2
10/05/2020 1
09/05/2020 2
08/05/2020 2
07/05/2020 5
06/05/2020 1
02/05/2020 1
30/04/2020 1
28/04/2020 1
26/04/2020 1
23/04/2020 1
22/04/2020 1
20/04/2020 1
16/04/2020 1
15/04/2020 1
14/04/2020 1
13/04/2020 1
12/04/2020 3
11/04/2020 1
10/04/2020 2
09/04/2020 1
08/04/2020 2
05/04/2020 1
03/04/2020 1
02/04/2020 2
01/04/2020 1
31/03/2020 1
30/03/2020 1
24/03/2020 1

Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

This forum is not fit for purpose.

comradeogilvy said:

Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

This forum is not fit for purpose.

Moderator - an off topic post...

:-)

Malmesbury said:

comradeogilvy said:

Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

This forum is not fit for purpose.

Moderator - an off topic post...

:-)

Methinks comradeogilvy misunderstands the purpose of a header.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Ave_it said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I think it will be a Hung Parliament.

I think it's a bit early to make a prediction! 😊

Not predicting, just pontificating

Would you care to pontificate on the Hyde Park 'protest'? I'm a bit hazy, but I seem to remember your position on one man and his family driving somewhere during lockdown being 'robust'. I'd love to know your opinions on several hundred gathering at close quarters for a bit of horseplay and chucking stuff at the rozzers.

comradeogilvy said:

Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

This forum is not fit for purpose.

Are you Starmer? He doesn't understand politics either.

comradeogilvy said:

Every time I think of getting involved in a discussion on PB I look at the comments and not a single one is about the article.

This forum is not fit for purpose.

"Are you not entertained? Are you not entertained? Is this not why you are here?"

TheScreamingEagles said:

I see Trump has now fallen out with Snapchat.

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1268268816527757318

In retaliation, he’s occupied the Lincoln Memorial,,..

https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1267977010909007877

https://twitter.com/gatewaypundit/status/1268268827554525186?s=20

Andrew said:

stodge said:

Long term trends are one thing but both the death toll and more especially the new cases number have moved up a little today.

In a normal week, the Wednesday numbers are usually better than the Tuesday numbers which include some lag from the weekend.

Those figures are worse than hopeless. Huge weekend effect, bank holidays, and weeks old data. Then you've got the time gap from infection - some of these deaths are from people infected in February.

The best representation of the current picture seems to be the graph below (coronavirus.data.gov.uk), showing hospital positives on date of specimen. If there's going to be an uptick we'll see it there long before it appears in the death stats.

Though that doesn't show the effect of the limited amount of testing before May.

solarflare said:

Barnesian said:

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation

government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.

BannedinnParis said:

solarflare said:

Barnesian said:

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation

government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.

28th May - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888353/2020-05-28_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides.pdf

Slide 7

Malmesbury said:

NickPalmer said:

eadric said:

BluestBlue said:

Alistair said:

54% of Americans approve of burning down police stations. The silent majority


https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1267941135521067011?s=19

America really has gone mad...

There’s something not quite right in this polling. From the same set (I think)

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1267852145996505097?s=21

How is the question being asked, in each case?

Americans rate their soldiers pretty highly. The police, not so much. It wasn't a soldier who appears to have committed manslaughter while three others stood around warching.

The underlying issue of routine hassles for black people arises here too. I used to know a young lawyer in London who owned an expensive car. He said he wass sropped and asked to prove ownership nearly every week, and presumed it was because he was black - he claimed he wasn't a fast driver, and he certainly wasn't disreputable-looking. I said that was outrageous - he shrugged, and said one gets used to it, he kept his papers handy, and it just wasted a minute. But not everyone remains that phlegmatic.

My ex from years back was from West Africa, a lawyer and drove a high end SUV with black-out back windows - to keep the sun off the kids.

We used to get stopped, on average, once a week.

My wife works in the OR in a hospital in a market town in PA. The black nurses when stopped in their vehicles by police call the hospital front desk and leave the phone open until the police officer leaves, just in case something happens to them. This is wrong.

solarflare said:

Barnesian said:

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation

No I haven't. I believe that the UK government is relying on data on deaths which is very out of date for an estimate of current infection rates i.e. current R. They don't explain their methodolgy so I can't benchmark.

My methodology is similar to the German government methodology I believe. It is simple. I can do it for every region and every borough. I only do it for England and London because it is a fair amount of work extracting the data which can be found here.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

BannedinnParis said:

solarflare said:

Barnesian said:

glw said:

Barnesian said:

Ave_it said:

I bet the R in London is about 4 now! 😠

My latest calculation of R is up to last Thursday the 28th based on reported cases.

England 0.61 (-0.03)
London 0.58 (+0.01)
Richmond had its first case yesterday in the last eight days.

The impact of today won't be seen until about June 10th.

I think your charts are useful, but can you do something about the dates on the X axis? You've obviously gone to a fair bit of effort as it is, it would be nice to more clearly see the date for each point on the line.

Just because I'm curious rather than anything else...have you got anything that "benchmarks" your curves against anything from a government briefing or equivalent?

e.g. CMO says on date X that regions Y's R value is estimated to be Z, and your graph's equivalent value is ??? Just for the additional context/interpretation

government estimate is in some of their presentations - 0.7 - 0.9 was the last estimate but happy to be updated.

London has a lower "R" (Well it did have) than rUK.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is resuming its trial of hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment for coronavirus.