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Who could have predicted this?
Well some of us, who knew this wasn't a bubble story.3 -
Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM0 -
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1266808246804844544
This is what should worry any Tory. Neither Corbyn nor Ed ever lead on this, Starmer is getting very close.0 -
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.CorrectHorseBattery said:Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.0 -
What about Layla Moran?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1266808246804844544
This is what should worry any Tory. Neither Corbyn nor Ed ever lead on this, Starmer is getting very close.0 -
Best PM has been a pretty reliable predictor the last several elections though no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.CorrectHorseBattery said:Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?0 -
Very good SCon and SLab figures in that Opinium, but I cannot recall a poll which has ever returned zero Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.0
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Corbyn led on best PM at one stage.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Best PM has been a pretty reliable predictor the last several elections though no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.CorrectHorseBattery said:Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?0 -
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Don't recall that, fair enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
Corbyn led on best PM at one stage.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Best PM has been a pretty reliable predictor the last several elections though no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.CorrectHorseBattery said:Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?0 -
It's about what I would have expected. The verdict on Cummings and Johnson is unequivocal, but less so on the two Parties. Longer term however the Party impact will be more significant and as long as Jonno continues to protect Dommo I foresee only one direction of travel.
The Starmer decline is an oddity, but I doubt it will keep hm awake tonite.0 -
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I wonder what story will be on the Sunday shows tomorrow?0
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The trend is thus clear, the gap has narrowed significantly and is showing no signs of increasing.0
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Cummings obviously.Scott_xP said:I wonder what story will be on the Sunday shows tomorrow?
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Not Flash, Just GordonCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/RhysPOspreys/status/1266818999653974022
This is the new meme1 -
Broken, sleazy Tories on the slideCorrectHorseBattery said:
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Despite the loss of the Boris bounce the astonishing thing is that despite everything the Tories are still polling higher than they got at any general election since 1987 until 2019.
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour1 -
It’s a good job he made the statement that closed the matter on Monday. Can you imagine how obsessed we’d all be with him otherwise?RochdalePioneers said:
Cummings obviously.Scott_xP said:I wonder what story will be on the Sunday shows tomorrow?
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For any serious insomniacs out there....
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/may/30/igor-levit-to-play-20-hour-eric-satie-piece-as-silent-scream0 -
With difficult decisions to come, I really do not see any other direction than down down down for the Tories.
I have to say, if you'd told me in March Starmer would almost overturn a 20 point lead, I would have sent you away.0 -
Yes I agree. Keir may as well move in now 😄Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
With YouGov shortly after the 2017 election.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Don't recall that, fair enough.TheScreamingEagles said:
Corbyn led on best PM at one stage.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Best PM has been a pretty reliable predictor the last several elections though no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.CorrectHorseBattery said:Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?
Howard led Blair on best PM in 2004 for a brief while.1 -
Leave voters by voting intention (changes since 2019 election):
Tory 70% (-3)
Labour 20% (+5)
Starmer is winning over the right people0 -
Just a couple of incontinent/incompetents.Scott_xP said:0 -
Any other polls due?0
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Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?0 -
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Heh.
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“Despite everything” = an admission of sortsHYUFD said:Despite the loss of the Boris bounce the astonishing thing is that despite everything the Tories are still polling higher than they got at any general election since 1987 until 2019.
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour2 -
Question: in polling from 2010 to 2015 for those elections, neither party got close to 40% right? Where have most of these voters come from, UKIP? Lib Dems?0
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Johnson also tried to blame the media for the story. But the poll finds that only 29% of people believe journalists have been unfair to Cummings.0
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I've gone LABCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?0 -
For real?Ave_it said:
I've gone LABCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?0 -
Tories up to 30% in Scotland, which would be their highest voteshare there since 1979. SNP back under 50%StuartDickson said:Very good SCon and SLab figures in that Opinium, but I cannot recall a poll which has ever returned zero Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.
Looks like anything Ruth can do Jackson can do even better0 -
Next stop, SNP.Ave_it said:
I've gone LABCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?1 -
It's ok, Ave It used to vote Labour when Blair was in charge.CorrectHorseBattery said:
For real?Ave_it said:
I've gone LABCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?0 -
Starmer will want to be exceeding 40%, as that is what Corbyn was able to achieve.
Worth noting he's already way above what Brown and Ed both achieved, although seat wise not as good as Brown.0 -
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.3 -
Before 2008 Brown was usually ahead of Cameron, then he bottled an early election and fell behind,CorrectHorseBattery said:
Best PM has been a pretty reliable predictor the last several elections though no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.CorrectHorseBattery said:Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?
After that Cameron always led until the 2010 General Election, but he still could only end up with largest party in a hung Parliament.0 -
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.0
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I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed! 0 -
Just to clarify. I am still CON 😄. But TSE is right. I have been LAB in my time properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's ok, Ave It used to vote Labour when Blair was in charge.CorrectHorseBattery said:
For real?Ave_it said:
I've gone LABCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?1 -
UKIP voters have gone Tory and LD voters have gone LabourCorrectHorseBattery said:Question: in polling from 2010 to 2015 for those elections, neither party got close to 40% right? Where have most of these voters come from, UKIP? Lib Dems?
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A friend of mine commented acidly that if he’d been given five minutes he could have come up with a far more convincing lie than that.rottenborough said:
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.0 -
FPT I thought this needed a discussion:
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.Black_Rook said:Apologies if this received widespread attention when it came out yesterday, but I've just discovered a different poll (this one's on the public's attitudes towards the coronavirus) and it is a real peach:
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-still-staying-home-and-even-coming-to-terms-with-lockdown
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.0 -
It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.ydoethur said:
A friend of mine commented acidly that if he’d been given five minutes he could have come up with a far more convincing lie than that.rottenborough said:
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.0 -
Move on is essential if the UK wants to challenge and keep abreast of the governments plans. Cummings scalp is irrelevant compared to trying to keep the government on some kind of planned and thought out de escalation.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
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A look at the data tables says otherwise.eadric said:
ie Remainers, every one of 'emTheScreamingEagles said:Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
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And the longer BoZo keeps him, the better it gets for Keir. He can punch that bruise every weekPeter_the_Punter said:I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!2 -
He's behind what EdM was polling:CorrectHorseBattery said:Starmer will want to be exceeding 40%, as that is what Corbyn was able to achieve.
Worth noting he's already way above what Brown and Ed both achieved, although seat wise not as good as Brown.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010–2012)#2011
What will happen in the future we don't know but you have to compare like with like.0 -
Which ones, name nameseadric said:
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.Peter_the_Punter said:
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!0 -
Huh?HYUFD said:
Tories up to 30% in Scotland, which would be their highest voteshare there since 1979. SNP back under 50%StuartDickson said:Very good SCon and SLab figures in that Opinium, but I cannot recall a poll which has ever returned zero Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.
Looks like anything Ruth can do Jackson can do even better
That Opinium gives seat distribution of:
SNP 52 seats (+4)
SCon 6 seats (nc)
SLab 1 seat (nc)
SLD 0 seats (-4)
... which is about half what Ruth Davidson managed.0 -
Bollocks. The poll shows that 58% of leavers think Cummings should go.eadric said:
ie Remainers, every one of 'emTheScreamingEagles said:Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
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Did Michael Gove explain why he likes hardcore porn yet?TheScreamingEagles said:It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.
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But he started from a very different position to Blair in mid-1994. Labour was already enjoying 20% leads under John Smith , and whilst Blair extended that gap he did not achieve a pro- Labour swing of 11% within two months of becpming leader.HYUFD said:Despite the loss of the Boris bounce the astonishing thing is that despite everything the Tories are still polling higher than they got at any general election since 1987 until 2019.
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour
Going further back , Labour is now doing better than the Tories were under Heath 5/6 months beyond the 1966 election - and much better than Kinnock in late 1987.1 -
A Titus Oates of our age.eadric said:
I have here in my hand, a list.nichomar said:
Which ones, name nameseadric said:
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.Peter_the_Punter said:
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!1 -
Meant in an election but take the point of comparing like for like.another_richard said:
He's behind what EdM was polling:CorrectHorseBattery said:Starmer will want to be exceeding 40%, as that is what Corbyn was able to achieve.
Worth noting he's already way above what Brown and Ed both achieved, although seat wise not as good as Brown.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010–2012)#2011
What will happen in the future we don't know but you have to compare like with like.0 -
Well normal porn is so boring, who likes that?Scott_xP said:
Did Michael Gove explain why he likes hardcore porn yet?TheScreamingEagles said:It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.
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Eh? Wtf has it got to do with Brexit?eadric said:
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.Peter_the_Punter said:
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
No more wine tonite, Eddy. Have a cocoa and go to bed.2 -
Im not really sure what that question means. He should have resigned, and if not been sacked for travelling 350 miles whilst contagious. But are 37% of the country really saying we have to talk about it more? For how long?TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
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Astonishing to think that this time last week some posters on here were proclaiming that the Cummings story was fizzling out. Yet it's still roaring on. When was the last time a political scandal gripped the nation to this extent? Profumo? I suspect even that pales in comparison - many people would have been indifferent to the goings on in that milieu in a way that they won't be with Covid-19. The scope of those affected is just too vast.0
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He was checking his eyesight.Scott_xP said:
Did Michael Gove explain why he likes hardcore porn yet?TheScreamingEagles said:It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.
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I thought Brexit happened ages ago?eadric said:
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.Peter_the_Punter said:
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!1 -
Well I’m one and I think that there are more important things to worry about at the moment. If the powers that be go WTO then it’s up to them to manage it, your obsession is beyond weird name these peopleeadric said:
They really don't want to move on because for many this is nothing to do with the virus, quarantine rules, whatever.nichomar said:
Move on is essential if the UK wants to challenge and keep abreast of the governments plans. Cummings scalp is irrelevant compared to trying to keep the government on some kind of planned and thought out de escalation.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
For a large subset this is about revenge on the hated Cummings and Johnson (and to a lesser extent Brexiteering Tories in general). They want the duo to pay for Brexit.
For a smaller, hardcore subset, there is still the faint hope that they can 1, force a weakened Boris/Tory government to request a big extended transition period, and 2 in that period they hope that Brexit might be rendered meaningless or scotched altogether.
If you don't believe that you don't understand the Remainer psyche. I know lots of them, the most candid admit all this0 -
Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.0
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Cummings obviously.Scott_xP said:I wonder what story will be on the Sunday shows tomorrow?
Would be piss funny if they let you join whilst banning meCorrectHorseBattery said:
For real?Ave_it said:
I've gone LABCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?0 -
Mrs Stodge and I are working at home and are set to do so for the foreseeable future.another_richard said:FPT I thought this needed a discussion:
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.
To be honest, what's keeping me indoors currently is the high pollen count which means I sneeze a lot and my eyes itch when I'm out. It also seems to coincide with obscenely good weather - whatever happened to the wet cold Junes of my youth when snow would stop play at Buxton and sturdy winter undergarments were de rigueur at Epsom and Ascot ?
In common with others our social life revolves around meeting friends at restaurants and pubs and with those not available Teams and Skype have replaced said meetings. Socialising chez vous if you like is the "new normal". Why risk public transport and crowds when you can still set up a virtual meeting?
That impacts on the aforementioned pubs and restaurants, on the public transport providers and on a myriad of related support industries.
As for walks, we walk - the supermarket visits are more organised and less frequent and have become a supplement to home deliveries rather than the main provider of food.
One thing that will change from Monday is I will venture out to purchase the Racing Post again - not buying that for nine weeks has saved me a ton of cash. Incidentally, I now have a reasonable betting bank for the Guineas and the Royal meeting.
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Ruth Davidson never got the Tories to 30% and the figures would actually see the Tories up to 7 MPs in Scotland and regaining Gordon from the SNP.StuartDickson said:
Huh?HYUFD said:
Tories up to 30% in Scotland, which would be their highest voteshare there since 1979. SNP back under 50%StuartDickson said:Very good SCon and SLab figures in that Opinium, but I cannot recall a poll which has ever returned zero Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.
Looks like anything Ruth can do Jackson can do even better
That Opinium gives seat distribution of:
SNP 52 seats (+4)
SCon 6 seats (nc)
SLab 1 seat (nc)
SLD 0 seats (-4)
... which is about half what Ruth Davidson managed.
If repeated next year it would see a Unionist majority at Holyrood0 -
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1266826484800462848
Superb decision.
Starmer is politicking like a pro0 -
Well they must be really top scientists to have worked that one out! Us ordinary bods would never have noticed!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Despite overwhelming evidence of media perfidy, some people will still believe them, particularly when the message is what they want to hear.TheScreamingEagles said:Johnson also tried to blame the media for the story. But the poll finds that only 29% of people believe journalists have been unfair to Cummings.
For an alternative viewpoint,; I enjoyed Sargon's take on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJtj2mkTxU0
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He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majorityeadric said:
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemicCorrectHorseBattery said:Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 20240 -
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If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever againHYUFD said:
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majorityeadric said:
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemicCorrectHorseBattery said:Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 20240 -
My take on tonights polls
Inevitable
Cummings should have resigned but could not care less
Boris cannot do without him to conclude brexit
Boris has thrown away his USP and trust and my support
But neither seem to care so I assume neither think they will be around much, if at all after spring 2021
Calling the next GE in 2024 may act as some respite for labour supporters from the Corbyn years but in reality it is impossible to call
And finally, the left and those of a remain persuasion have failed to rid Cummings from their obsession and he stays there as a lightning rod for their anger and no doubt he just loves it
Weird thing politics3 -
Gay dogging sites. In my defence I once totally innocuously wandered into what I later discovered was a gay cruise spot in Finabury Park. Perhaps RD was innocuous on repeated occasions...TheScreamingEagles said:
It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.ydoethur said:
A friend of mine commented acidly that if he’d been given five minutes he could have come up with a far more convincing lie than that.rottenborough said:
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.0 -
Fake news, the Tories would have won an even larger majority under some non FPTP voting systems at GE2015 for example.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever againHYUFD said:
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majorityeadric said:
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemicCorrectHorseBattery said:Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/0 -
So, the Conservatives are going to provide confidence and supply to FM Leonard? That’s available at the astonishingly good price of 20/1. How much cash have you invested HY?HYUFD said:
Ruth Davidson never got the Tories to 30% and the figures would actually see the Tories up to 7 MPs in Scotland and regaining Gordon from the SNP.StuartDickson said:
Huh?HYUFD said:
Tories up to 30% in Scotland, which would be their highest voteshare there since 1979. SNP back under 50%StuartDickson said:Very good SCon and SLab figures in that Opinium, but I cannot recall a poll which has ever returned zero Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.
Looks like anything Ruth can do Jackson can do even better
That Opinium gives seat distribution of:
SNP 52 seats (+4)
SCon 6 seats (nc)
SLab 1 seat (nc)
SLD 0 seats (-4)
... which is about half what Ruth Davidson managed.
If repeated next year it would see a Unionist majority at Holyrood0 -
Haven't you gone LD Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:My take on tonights polls
Inevitable
Cummings should have resigned but could not care less
Boris cannot do without him to conclude brexit
Boris has thrown away his USP and trust and my support
But neither seem to care so I assume neither think they will be around much, if at all after spring 2021
Calling the next GE in 2024 may act as some respite for labour supporters from the Corbyn years but in reality it is impossible to call
And finally, the left and those of a remain persuasion have failed to rid Cummings from their obsession and he stays there as a lightning rod for their anger and no doubt he just loves it
Weird thing politics1 -
There won't be a Labour majority either. Think you might be getting a teeny weeny ahead of yourself here. I realise opinion polls 4 years before an election are all very exciting but there's a long way to go yet.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever againHYUFD said:
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majorityeadric said:
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemicCorrectHorseBattery said:Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 20241 -
We left the EU at the end of January. You can't stop something that happened in the past. I think this is your problem - your definition of "Brexit" isn't leaving the EU. What is it...?eadric said:
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.Peter_the_Punter said:
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!1 -
There would never be a Labour majority again either.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever againHYUFD said:
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majorityeadric said:
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemicCorrectHorseBattery said:Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
The Tories would likely split into its Cameroon and pro hard Brexit wings and Labour would split into its Corbynite and Social Democrat and Blairite wings.
The LDs would hold the balance of power in most general elections1 -
What is that to do with Starmer. It is the lawCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1266826484800462848
Superb decision.
Starmer is politicking like a pro0 -
Pissing on and pissing off remainers?RochdalePioneers said:
We left the EU at the end of January. You can't stop something that happened in the past. I think this is your problem - your definition of "Brexit" isn't leaving the EU. What is it...?eadric said:
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.Peter_the_Punter said:
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.StuartDickson said:
Popcorn. Sorted.AlastairMeeks said:
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!0 -
What you mean is if a Scotch subsample of a Westminster poll was repeated in Holyrood elections in a year's time. That's right isn't it?HYUFD said:
Ruth Davidson never got the Tories to 30% and the figures would actually see the Tories up to 7 MPs in Scotland and regaining Gordon from the SNP.StuartDickson said:
Huh?HYUFD said:
Tories up to 30% in Scotland, which would be their highest voteshare there since 1979. SNP back under 50%StuartDickson said:Very good SCon and SLab figures in that Opinium, but I cannot recall a poll which has ever returned zero Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.
Looks like anything Ruth can do Jackson can do even better
That Opinium gives seat distribution of:
SNP 52 seats (+4)
SCon 6 seats (nc)
SLab 1 seat (nc)
SLD 0 seats (-4)
... which is about half what Ruth Davidson managed.
If repeated next year it would see a Unionist majority at Holyrood0 -
The notion that only 15% of the population claims to have been outside every day in the preceding week is almost as extraordinary as that schooling question - especially given how many people still need to go out to work. You have to wonder what percentage of the entire population (70%? 80%?) would be willing to contemplate spending the rest of their lives cowering in their homes if they weren't compelled to go out to earn a living or buy groceries.another_richard said:FPT I thought this needed a discussion:
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.Black_Rook said:Apologies if this received widespread attention when it came out yesterday, but I've just discovered a different poll (this one's on the public's attitudes towards the coronavirus) and it is a real peach:
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-still-staying-home-and-even-coming-to-terms-with-lockdown
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.
If these numbers are anywhere close to representative of the true opinion of the public then most people have gone completely round the twist.1 -
When I was at university, a London based friend told me meet them at Clapham Common.RochdalePioneers said:
Gay dogging sites. In my defence I once totally innocuously wandered into what I later discovered was a gay cruise spot in Finabury Park. Perhaps RD was innocuous on repeated occasions...TheScreamingEagles said:
It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.ydoethur said:
A friend of mine commented acidly that if he’d been given five minutes he could have come up with a far more convincing lie than that.rottenborough said:
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1266812011633139713
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.
I was a poor naive student in the heady days of early 1998.
Thank God for my phobia of public toilets.0
