It's about what I would have expected. The verdict on Cummings and Johnson is unequivocal, but less so on the two Parties. Longer term however the Party impact will be more significant and as long as Jonno continues to protect Dommo I foresee only one direction of travel.
The Starmer decline is an oddity, but I doubt it will keep hm awake tonite.
Despite the loss of the Boris bounce the astonishing thing is that despite everything the Tories are still polling higher than they got at any general election since 1987 until 2019.
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour
Despite the loss of the Boris bounce the astonishing thing is that despite everything the Tories are still polling higher than they got at any general election since 1987 until 2019.
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour
Question: in polling from 2010 to 2015 for those elections, neither party got close to 40% right? Where have most of these voters come from, UKIP? Lib Dems?
Best PM is the biggest thing here. Implies a 3 point lead.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
Best PM is a bit of a red herring, it always has an incumbency bias and even Callaghan led on best PM at GE1979.
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Best PM has been a pretty reliable predictor the last several elections though no?
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?
Before 2008 Brown was usually ahead of Cameron, then he bottled an early election and fell behind, After that Cameron always led until the 2010 General Election, but he still could only end up with largest party in a hung Parliament.
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Question: in polling from 2010 to 2015 for those elections, neither party got close to 40% right? Where have most of these voters come from, UKIP? Lib Dems?
UKIP voters have gone Tory and LD voters have gone Labour
Apologies if this received widespread attention when it came out yesterday, but I've just discovered a different poll (this one's on the public's attitudes towards the coronavirus) and it is a real peach:
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
Move on is essential if the UK wants to challenge and keep abreast of the governments plans. Cummings scalp is irrelevant compared to trying to keep the government on some kind of planned and thought out de escalation.
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
And the longer BoZo keeps him, the better it gets for Keir. He can punch that bruise every week
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
ie Remainers, every one of 'em
Bollocks. The poll shows that 58% of leavers think Cummings should go.
Despite the loss of the Boris bounce the astonishing thing is that despite everything the Tories are still polling higher than they got at any general election since 1987 until 2019.
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour
But he started from a very different position to Blair in mid-1994. Labour was already enjoying 20% leads under John Smith , and whilst Blair extended that gap he did not achieve a pro- Labour swing of 11% within two months of becpming leader. Going further back , Labour is now doing better than the Tories were under Heath 5/6 months beyond the 1966 election - and much better than Kinnock in late 1987.
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.
Eh? Wtf has it got to do with Brexit?
No more wine tonite, Eddy. Have a cocoa and go to bed.
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
Im not really sure what that question means. He should have resigned, and if not been sacked for travelling 350 miles whilst contagious. But are 37% of the country really saying we have to talk about it more? For how long?
Astonishing to think that this time last week some posters on here were proclaiming that the Cummings story was fizzling out. Yet it's still roaring on. When was the last time a political scandal gripped the nation to this extent? Profumo? I suspect even that pales in comparison - many people would have been indifferent to the goings on in that milieu in a way that they won't be with Covid-19. The scope of those affected is just too vast.
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.
Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters.
Move on is essential if the UK wants to challenge and keep abreast of the governments plans. Cummings scalp is irrelevant compared to trying to keep the government on some kind of planned and thought out de escalation.
They really don't want to move on because for many this is nothing to do with the virus, quarantine rules, whatever.
For a large subset this is about revenge on the hated Cummings and Johnson (and to a lesser extent Brexiteering Tories in general). They want the duo to pay for Brexit.
For a smaller, hardcore subset, there is still the faint hope that they can 1, force a weakened Boris/Tory government to request a big extended transition period, and 2 in that period they hope that Brexit might be rendered meaningless or scotched altogether.
If you don't believe that you don't understand the Remainer psyche. I know lots of them, the most candid admit all this
Well I’m one and I think that there are more important things to worry about at the moment. If the powers that be go WTO then it’s up to them to manage it, your obsession is beyond weird name these people
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.
Mrs Stodge and I are working at home and are set to do so for the foreseeable future.
To be honest, what's keeping me indoors currently is the high pollen count which means I sneeze a lot and my eyes itch when I'm out. It also seems to coincide with obscenely good weather - whatever happened to the wet cold Junes of my youth when snow would stop play at Buxton and sturdy winter undergarments were de rigueur at Epsom and Ascot ?
In common with others our social life revolves around meeting friends at restaurants and pubs and with those not available Teams and Skype have replaced said meetings. Socialising chez vous if you like is the "new normal". Why risk public transport and crowds when you can still set up a virtual meeting?
That impacts on the aforementioned pubs and restaurants, on the public transport providers and on a myriad of related support industries.
As for walks, we walk - the supermarket visits are more organised and less frequent and have become a supplement to home deliveries rather than the main provider of food.
One thing that will change from Monday is I will venture out to purchase the Racing Post again - not buying that for nine weeks has saved me a ton of cash. Incidentally, I now have a reasonable betting bank for the Guineas and the Royal meeting.
Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemic
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majority
Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemic
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majority
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever again
Cummings should have resigned but could not care less
Boris cannot do without him to conclude brexit
Boris has thrown away his USP and trust and my support
But neither seem to care so I assume neither think they will be around much, if at all after spring 2021
Calling the next GE in 2024 may act as some respite for labour supporters from the Corbyn years but in reality it is impossible to call
And finally, the left and those of a remain persuasion have failed to rid Cummings from their obsession and he stays there as a lightning rod for their anger and no doubt he just loves it
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.
A friend of mine commented acidly that if he’d been given five minutes he could have come up with a far more convincing lie than that.
It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.
Gay dogging sites. In my defence I once totally innocuously wandered into what I later discovered was a gay cruise spot in Finabury Park. Perhaps RD was innocuous on repeated occasions...
Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemic
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majority
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever again
Fake news, the Tories would have won an even larger majority under some non FPTP voting systems at GE2015 for example.
... which is about half what Ruth Davidson managed.
Ruth Davidson never got the Tories to 30% and the figures would actually see the Tories up to 7 MPs in Scotland and regaining Gordon from the SNP.
If repeated next year it would see a Unionist majority at Holyrood
So, the Conservatives are going to provide confidence and supply to FM Leonard? That’s available at the astonishingly good price of 20/1. How much cash have you invested HY?
Cummings should have resigned but could not care less
Boris cannot do without him to conclude brexit
Boris has thrown away his USP and trust and my support
But neither seem to care so I assume neither think they will be around much, if at all after spring 2021
Calling the next GE in 2024 may act as some respite for labour supporters from the Corbyn years but in reality it is impossible to call
And finally, the left and those of a remain persuasion have failed to rid Cummings from their obsession and he stays there as a lightning rod for their anger and no doubt he just loves it
Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemic
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majority
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever again
There won't be a Labour majority either. Think you might be getting a teeny weeny ahead of yourself here. I realise opinion polls 4 years before an election are all very exciting but there's a long way to go yet.
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.
We left the EU at the end of January. You can't stop something that happened in the past. I think this is your problem - your definition of "Brexit" isn't leaving the EU. What is it...?
Well, I am predicting now PM Keir Starmer in 2024.
Likewise. Amongst all the chaos, let us remember that by 2024 the Tories will have been in power for fourteen years. And they are presiding over a shitshow pandemic
Starmer is boring but electable. He will almost certainly win in 2024
He may become PM with LD and SNP support, he will almost certainly not win a majority
If he implements PR - which he should do - there will likely never be a Tory majority ever again
There would never be a Labour majority again either.
The Tories would likely split into its Cameroon and pro hard Brexit wings and Labour would split into its Corbynite and Social Democrat and Blairite wings.
The LDs would hold the balance of power in most general elections
I must say he did offer quite a few hostages to fortune in The Rose Garden account so it wouldn't be surprising if some of them went bad for him.
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
The Remainers have four weeks to stop Brexit. They will stop at nothing in that time.
We left the EU at the end of January. You can't stop something that happened in the past. I think this is your problem - your definition of "Brexit" isn't leaving the EU. What is it...?
Apologies if this received widespread attention when it came out yesterday, but I've just discovered a different poll (this one's on the public's attitudes towards the coronavirus) and it is a real peach:
If anyone was in any doubt that perhaps the only thing at which this Government has been really effective is absolutely scaring the shit out of people, then this should settle the matter. Of particular note is the finding that fully half of the respondents thought that it would be a good idea to have nearly all children home schooled for the very long term (i.e. potentially FOREVER) if a treatment or vaccine can't be found.
I mean, I did suggest the other week that we should bulldoze all the schools to clear brownfield land for housing if the teachers were too scared (or too comfortable working from home) ever to have the kids back, but I'm reasonably sure I meant it as a joke...
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.
The notion that only 15% of the population claims to have been outside every day in the preceding week is almost as extraordinary as that schooling question - especially given how many people still need to go out to work. You have to wonder what percentage of the entire population (70%? 80%?) would be willing to contemplate spending the rest of their lives cowering in their homes if they weren't compelled to go out to earn a living or buy groceries.
If these numbers are anywhere close to representative of the true opinion of the public then most people have gone completely round the twist.
Seems like the British public have not lost their common sense.
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.
A friend of mine commented acidly that if he’d been given five minutes he could have come up with a far more convincing lie than that.
It was nearly as bad as the badger watching excuse Ron Davies came out when he was caught at a well known dogging site.
Gay dogging sites. In my defence I once totally innocuously wandered into what I later discovered was a gay cruise spot in Finabury Park. Perhaps RD was innocuous on repeated occasions...
When I was at university, a London based friend told me meet them at Clapham Common.
I was a poor naive student in the heady days of early 1998.
Comments
Well some of us, who knew this wasn't a bubble story.
I predict: polling parity on Westminster intention + Starmer leads best PM
This is what should worry any Tory. Neither Corbyn nor Ed ever lead on this, Starmer is getting very close.
Approval/leader ratings are a much better guide.
Corbyn never led on it, Ed never led, I don't think Brown led Cameron during GE10? Did Howard best Blair in GE05?
iT'S aLl A BuBBle STory
The Starmer decline is an oddity, but I doubt it will keep hm awake tonite.
Another one!
This is the new meme
Also this
Clearly no Blair effect yet for Starmer, his main effect has been to win over LDs hesitant about Corbyn back to Labour
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/may/30/igor-levit-to-play-20-hour-eric-satie-piece-as-silent-scream
I have to say, if you'd told me in March Starmer would almost overturn a 20 point lead, I would have sent you away.
Howard led Blair on best PM in 2004 for a brief while.
Tory 70% (-3)
Labour 20% (+5)
Starmer is winning over the right people
It's all a bubble story, where are the PB Tories?
Looks like anything Ruth can do Jackson can do even better
Worth noting he's already way above what Brown and Ed both achieved, although seat wise not as good as Brown.
He has weeks to come up with something and an "eye test" was the best he could do.
And this is the genius who will lead Britain into the mid-2020s?
Next.
After that Cameron always led until the 2010 General Election, but he still could only end up with largest party in a hung Parliament.
Like this one lol
One rather assumed he would have been careful not to tell any demonstrable untruths but we have already seen that it is not the case. His account of the article he said he had written on coronavirus unwound pretty swiftly.
Sounds like there's more to come. Popcorn indeed!
I wonder how closely aligned the half who are happy to home school forever are to the half who say they are working from home.
And I also wonder how many of both these groups are leaving their homes at all.
Perhaps they don't and meanwhile there is another half who are going to work, going to the supermarket and going out on walks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010–2012)#2011
What will happen in the future we don't know but you have to compare like with like.
That Opinium gives seat distribution of:
SNP 52 seats (+4)
SCon 6 seats (nc)
SLab 1 seat (nc)
SLD 0 seats (-4)
... which is about half what Ruth Davidson managed.
Going further back , Labour is now doing better than the Tories were under Heath 5/6 months beyond the 1966 election - and much better than Kinnock in late 1987.
No more wine tonite, Eddy. Have a cocoa and go to bed.
To be honest, what's keeping me indoors currently is the high pollen count which means I sneeze a lot and my eyes itch when I'm out. It also seems to coincide with obscenely good weather - whatever happened to the wet cold Junes of my youth when snow would stop play at Buxton and sturdy winter undergarments were de rigueur at Epsom and Ascot ?
In common with others our social life revolves around meeting friends at restaurants and pubs and with those not available Teams and Skype have replaced said meetings. Socialising chez vous if you like is the "new normal". Why risk public transport and crowds when you can still set up a virtual meeting?
That impacts on the aforementioned pubs and restaurants, on the public transport providers and on a myriad of related support industries.
As for walks, we walk - the supermarket visits are more organised and less frequent and have become a supplement to home deliveries rather than the main provider of food.
One thing that will change from Monday is I will venture out to purchase the Racing Post again - not buying that for nine weeks has saved me a ton of cash. Incidentally, I now have a reasonable betting bank for the Guineas and the Royal meeting.
If repeated next year it would see a Unionist majority at Holyrood
Superb decision.
Starmer is politicking like a pro
For an alternative viewpoint,; I enjoyed Sargon's take on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJtj2mkTxU0
Inevitable
Cummings should have resigned but could not care less
Boris cannot do without him to conclude brexit
Boris has thrown away his USP and trust and my support
But neither seem to care so I assume neither think they will be around much, if at all after spring 2021
Calling the next GE in 2024 may act as some respite for labour supporters from the Corbyn years but in reality it is impossible to call
And finally, the left and those of a remain persuasion have failed to rid Cummings from their obsession and he stays there as a lightning rod for their anger and no doubt he just loves it
Weird thing politics
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
The Tories would likely split into its Cameroon and pro hard Brexit wings and Labour would split into its Corbynite and Social Democrat and Blairite wings.
The LDs would hold the balance of power in most general elections
If these numbers are anywhere close to representative of the true opinion of the public then most people have gone completely round the twist.
I was a poor naive student in the heady days of early 1998.
Thank God for my phobia of public toilets.