politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s been definite damage to Boris Johnson in the polls fol
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Only if they are just stopping for the weekendanother_richard said:
Don't the English second homers bring their food with them as its unavailable at the local Asda ?nichomar said:
Second homers come out of London, say, infection hotspot. Go To rural location And then have to go to local supermarket spreading the infection if they have it. Not a good idea which is why we didn’t want the second homers from Madrid to comeisam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
Or so its claimed.0 -
Scottish Labour will make a comeback.0
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Lol, I live down the road from you and didn't even realise there was anything planned, balcony doors open. Maybe it just happened in your flat...kinabalu said:
It was MASSIVE round here. Could hardly hear myself think.Philip_Thompson said:
Did you have fun? Do you feel big or clever?kinabalu said:Quick reminder. "Boo for Boris" in 3 minutes at 8.
Be there or be square.
Or are you a big square?
Clearly will run and run - so see you next Tuesday basically.1 -
IIRC most of that growth was in a late surge during the election campaign. Wasn't he 20% behind when the election was called? It then disappeared as quickly as it arrived and never recovered. Corbyn's favourability ratings then bumped along at as low as -67% till the next GE.isam said:
Boris is beating him on "preferred PM" by 17%. That cant be right given the leader ratingsOllyT said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
That I had expected the gap to have closed more although Chris from YouGov said to wait for more polls so I am awaiting those taken entirely post speech to make a judgment.bigjohnowls said:
Did you what was the conclusion?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We discussed this about 4 hours agobigjohnowls said:NEW Survation Poll – Westminster Voting Intention:
CON 46% (-2)
LAB 33% (+3)
LD 8% (-)
GRN 4% (-1)
SNP 5% (-)
BXP <1% (-)
OTH 4% (-)
Nearly all fieldwork post Cummings
Great result for Tories</p>
I also said that I would expect polling parity by the end of the year and the usual suspects laughed at me, so I am clearly doing a great job
Favourability ratings for Boris and the government are dropping significantly and Starmer's favourability is improving. Changes in party support are lagging at the moment but may not continue to do so. As SO has said elsewhere the Labour Party is not going to restore trust overnight. My guess is that by the end of the year Starmer will have comfortably better ratings than Boris (if he's still there) and the gap between the parties will be very narrow.
Replacing the Corbynista Jenny Formby with David Evans as the new General Secretary today is another step in the right direction.
Labour got 40% with Jezza in charge
It seems to be popular to dismiss that inconvenient fact, and peddle a myth of "trust that will take time to be restored", but a fact it remains. He took the party from 30.4% in 2015 to 40% in 2017
That surge up to 40% was very transient. I can also remember the Liberal/SDP Alliance polling over 50% briefly, it wasn't sustained.
I'm not sure an brief surge tells us that much. He did well in 2017, no doubt about it but it really was an aberration, we was deeply unpopular for most of the time he spent in office.
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Yes, that's what seems to bother people.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
I was wondering what would be people's reaction if a couple with a young kid who lived on the 10th floor of a council block moved into one of their parents privately owned houses with a couple of spare rooms and a garden for lockdown?0 -
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.3 -
I don't really think that's right. Council Tax doesn't go to pay for hospital capacity. Planning health services is down to where people normally physically are. So, for example, there is some provision to reflect the fact that seaside areas have materially higher population at some times of year, while the City of London is sure to have vastly higher health spending than its tiny resident population implies.TOPPING said:
If people pay council tax in both their homes then there shouldn't be a problem.tlg86 said:
The issue is that services are distributed on usually resident population. There was a potential danger of hospitals away from London being put under pressure by having to deal with more people than expected.Fishing said:
I quite agree. It's probably better for people to be in second homes as they tend to be in the country, and it's probably more difficult to spread a virus if people are in low density areas than in big cities.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO) had just gone to his parents for liockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the "stealth tax" the virus puts on the poor and relief it gives to the rich. But that's just life
The other reason I can't particularly give a damn is that I've been ignoring lockdown restrictions myself so it would be hypocritical of me to care if he does.
I can see it may well be an issue if people went to holiday homes in large numbers, although I don't know how big an issue.
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Yeah I wasn't bothered by the lack of resignations at the time. There was a part of me hoping that the Police would find something on Blair, but they didn't so fair enough.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
You've not actually answered my question... which is your prerogative but, in case you missed it:Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky and there was a foul in that money was returned etc, but yeah I don't think anyone had to resign over it. Had anyone been convicted they obviously would have had to.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The timing of Blair's departure was very much influenced by Cash-for-Honours. It's obviously not in his resignation letter, but yes it was a big part of him going that early in the term.Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky but no convictions were there? No, I seem to recall from memory Blair was questioned by the Police but never charged and he never resigned.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think anyone should have resigned over Cash-for-Honours out of interest?Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. I think its reasonable to let a free and fair investigation settle the matter. If he gets convicted of any offence he should go, if he doesn't he should stay.NickPalmer said:
In fairness, the police have to investigate any remotely serious allegation. It shouldn't be taken to imply proof or its absence.williamglenn said:
Convictions matter. Witch hunts don't.
I'm genuinely interested in your approach to it - to be clear, you just think "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
Do you personally think there should have been no resignations? And do you really yourself think, "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
I mean, it's the clear logic of your position, but seems extremely odd as a position to me.0 -
If they did that early on, without symptoms and stayed there until this was all over I'd be ok with it.isam said:
Yes, that's what seems to bother people.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
I was wondering what would be people's reaction if a couple with a young kid who lived on the 10th floor of a council block moved into one of their parents privately owned houses with a couple of spare rooms and a garden for lockdown?0 -
Max you are rapidly becoming my favourite poster.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.0 -
I quite like the fact that he listened to all the evidence on sage, communicated that to the cabinet, and then when reality hit how did he make his decision?TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
Calculated the risks from all the scientific evidence he learnt?
Followed the rules he helped create?
He didnt attempt either, he did what his sick wife instinctively recommended! Incredible.0 -
No idea very thoughtful of them I guess.isam said:
Yes, that's what seems to bother people.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
I was wondering what would be people's reaction if a couple with a young kid who lived on the 10th floor of a council block moved into one of their parents privately owned houses with a couple of spare rooms and a garden for lockdown?0 -
People seem to be keeping the 2m to me.stodge said:
The numbers are moving in the right direction but if I am any guide a lot of people are still very wary and keeping contact with others to a minimum and respecting social distancing.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
There have been a minority who I suspect have not throughout all this but out on my walk today people generally playing by the rules and if that continues we can gradually ease through the summer.
Behaviours have changed and people have adapted. That is something human beings are very good at. Thee still seems some primal urge among a minority to go back to status quo ante but that doesn't recognise or understand the world has changed and is changing.
Yet we hear reports of it being ignored in parks and beaches.
I wonder if the people doing this ignoring are merely the type of people who think heading to a crowded park or beach is a fun thing to do anyway.
Whereas the 'keep the distance' types are people who generally avoid crowds and congestion.1 -
There was a tweet I saw yesterday that compared Starmer's demeanour to that of a teacher when he sees you've drawn a big cock and hairy balls on your exercise bookAndy_JS said:
Starmer's slightly po-faced and humourless demeanour would go down well in Wales and Scotland I imagine.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.0 -
LOL. Up the ante.williamglenn said:0 -
Found itisam said:
There was a tweet I saw yesterday that compared Starmer's demeanour to that of a teacher when he sees you've drawn a big cock and hairy balls on your exercise bookAndy_JS said:
Starmer's slightly po-faced and humourless demeanour would go down well in Wales and Scotland I imagine.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
https://twitter.com/robpalkwriter/status/1264656869508997126?s=202 -
Can someone explain to Morgan that lockdown finished two weeks ago.rottenborough said:1 -
Like the Leavers who voted Leave because they wanted Dave out.rottenborough said:
LOL. Up the ante.williamglenn said:0 -
another_richard said:
Morgan is yearning for a second peak.rottenborough said:Question of the year:
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1265354055301443587
I am in the Gupta of Oxford hypothesis camp, as in I think and certainly hope there is enough natural immunity and asymptomatic stuff to pretty much avoid a 2nd. But I am not betting on it.
He doesn't even realise that lockdown ended two weeks ago.
It hasn't, not in any real sense. It seems that the worst environments for spreading the infection are crowded indoor spaces, primarily pubs, churches, cinemas, night-clubs and so on. None of these are yet open so I don't think we can draw too many conclusions yet.
In Italy, Spain, France it is now summer and warm and life is largely lived outdoors . This winter will be the real test in Europe.0 -
So basically he is saying Cummings is Harris and Boris is Orville?williamglenn said:1 -
I'd imagine those going to parks and beaches contain a fairly large proportion of people who have already had it or are unlikely to get it seriously. In the Heath yesterday it was mostly people under 40 with their partners/families. We met some friends there and had a few premixed G&Ts, was a very nice experience after not seeing them for so long.another_richard said:
People seem to be keeping the 2m to me.stodge said:
The numbers are moving in the right direction but if I am any guide a lot of people are still very wary and keeping contact with others to a minimum and respecting social distancing.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
There have been a minority who I suspect have not throughout all this but out on my walk today people generally playing by the rules and if that continues we can gradually ease through the summer.
Behaviours have changed and people have adapted. That is something human beings are very good at. Thee still seems some primal urge among a minority to go back to status quo ante but that doesn't recognise or understand the world has changed and is changing.
Yet we hear reports of it being ignored in parks and beaches.
I wonder if the people doing this ignoring are merely the type of people who think heading to a crowded park or beach is a fun thing to do anyway.
Whereas the 'keep the distance' types are people who generally avoid crowds and congestion.1 -
They are slowly catching on.williamglenn said:0 -
"It's time to put up or shut up"williamglenn said:0 -
So much for those saying Keir is simply Ed Mk2.......HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
The Scots and Welsh do not think so....
Neither do I
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Well, the ONS figure for people currently testing positive is probably more accurate (and more up-to-date) than the estimate of weekly new cases. That's about 140,000.Andrew said:
Saw what seemed like a reasonable rule of thumb: high-testing countries will detect maybe half of symptomatics, then add 50% for the rest. That'd put us on ~6k/day today, and declining at ~5%/day (or ~80%/month). Be nice if that rate continued for a bit, really stamp this thing into the ground.Chris said:
If you can believe the ONS survey, their estimate of daily new cases in the UK is about 9000.
Suppose for the sake of argument that went down by 80%. That would be about 30,000.
That wouldn't mean we could go "back to normal", because at R=2.4 in three weeks it would be up to a million and in a month nearly 10% of the population would be infected.
Thw only way we can get close to "normal" is to have a really rigorous and efficient system of contact tracing and isolation that in itself takes R down to an acceptable value. I think that needs the numbers to be a lot lower than they are now. And of course they are a lot lower in most European countries, which is why you can't make a simple equation with what's happening in Germany or Austria.
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https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1265362670598983680
That's funny, because normally he enjoys make sarcastic comments to the journalists outside his house.
Now suddenly he aint laughing.
Nor are we mate, nor are we.0 -
To me this depends on how they have broken it.another_richard said:
Can someone explain to Morgan that lockdown finished two weeks ago.rottenborough said:
If done in a thought through, risk assessed manner - then that would perha[s be a useful part of the process of getting out of lockdown.
It's only a week or so since some commentators (including here ;-) ) were hammering away about how lockdown had been too successful because we are all terrified.0 -
So you think actually, although it probably moved quite a lot of votes, it shouldn't have really because it was (in your words) a "witch hunt"? If Tony were here now, you'd express deep sympathy that he was damaged over a nothing?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah I wasn't bothered by the lack of resignations at the time. There was a part of me hoping that the Police would find something on Blair, but they didn't so fair enough.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
You've not actually answered my question... which is your prerogative but, in case you missed it:Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky and there was a foul in that money was returned etc, but yeah I don't think anyone had to resign over it. Had anyone been convicted they obviously would have had to.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The timing of Blair's departure was very much influenced by Cash-for-Honours. It's obviously not in his resignation letter, but yes it was a big part of him going that early in the term.Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky but no convictions were there? No, I seem to recall from memory Blair was questioned by the Police but never charged and he never resigned.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think anyone should have resigned over Cash-for-Honours out of interest?Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. I think its reasonable to let a free and fair investigation settle the matter. If he gets convicted of any offence he should go, if he doesn't he should stay.NickPalmer said:
In fairness, the police have to investigate any remotely serious allegation. It shouldn't be taken to imply proof or its absence.williamglenn said:
Convictions matter. Witch hunts don't.
I'm genuinely interested in your approach to it - to be clear, you just think "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
Do you personally think there should have been no resignations? And do you really yourself think, "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
I mean, it's the clear logic of your position, but seems extremely odd as a position to me.
And Jeremy Thorpe ditto, presumably? An innocent man, unfairly reviled and brought low over nothing whatsoever, thinks Philip?
It's a view, I suppose.0 -
isam said:
Found itisam said:
There was a tweet I saw yesterday that compared Starmer's demeanour to that of a teacher when he sees you've drawn a big cock and hairy balls on your exercise bookAndy_JS said:
Starmer's slightly po-faced and humourless demeanour would go down well in Wales and Scotland I imagine.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
https://twitter.com/robpalkwriter/status/1264656869508997126?s=20
How stupid and puerile....
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For me, a big difference doing it with or without symptoms, and the age of the parents.isam said:
Yes, that's what seems to bother people.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
I was wondering what would be people's reaction if a couple with a young kid who lived on the 10th floor of a council block moved into one of their parents privately owned houses with a couple of spare rooms and a garden for lockdown?
No symptoms, parents under 70, good luck, go for it.
Symptoms (parents any age) - breaking quarantine and dangerous, would think badly of them
No symptoms, parents over 70 is a trickier one, probably it depends on that one.0 -
Is there data for what is the proportion of holiday homes in each district ?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't really think that's right. Council Tax doesn't go to pay for hospital capacity. Planning health services is down to where people normally physically are. So, for example, there is some provision to reflect the fact that seaside areas have materially higher population at some times of year, while the City of London is sure to have vastly higher health spending than its tiny resident population implies.TOPPING said:
If people pay council tax in both their homes then there shouldn't be a problem.tlg86 said:
The issue is that services are distributed on usually resident population. There was a potential danger of hospitals away from London being put under pressure by having to deal with more people than expected.Fishing said:
I quite agree. It's probably better for people to be in second homes as they tend to be in the country, and it's probably more difficult to spread a virus if people are in low density areas than in big cities.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO) had just gone to his parents for liockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the "stealth tax" the virus puts on the poor and relief it gives to the rich. But that's just life
The other reason I can't particularly give a damn is that I've been ignoring lockdown restrictions myself so it would be hypocritical of me to care if he does.
I can see it may well be an issue if people went to holiday homes in large numbers, although I don't know how big an issue.0 -
Terrifying a 4 year old is OK with you then? I know it is for his constituency MP, though of course she squealed when Soubry was accosted.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1265362670598983680
That's funny, because normally he enjoys make sarcastic comments to the journalists outside his house.
Now suddenly he aint laughing.
Nor are we mate, nor are we.
This episode has shown what a seriously nasty bunch of people the left, and the Europhile media, really are
Just grow up and stop being such a moron1 -
We've always heard reports of it being ignored in parks and beaches from the start.another_richard said:
People seem to be keeping the 2m to me.stodge said:
The numbers are moving in the right direction but if I am any guide a lot of people are still very wary and keeping contact with others to a minimum and respecting social distancing.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
There have been a minority who I suspect have not throughout all this but out on my walk today people generally playing by the rules and if that continues we can gradually ease through the summer.
Behaviours have changed and people have adapted. That is something human beings are very good at. Thee still seems some primal urge among a minority to go back to status quo ante but that doesn't recognise or understand the world has changed and is changing.
Yet we hear reports of it being ignored in parks and beaches.
I wonder if the people doing this ignoring are merely the type of people who think heading to a crowded park or beach is a fun thing to do anyway.
Whereas the 'keep the distance' types are people who generally avoid crowds and congestion.
Most of them are and have been sensation-seeking bullshit from our tabloid media, complete with misleading photographs.
I actually wrote to my MP back in March for the first time since the early 1990s to ask him to try and make sure that any restrictions on parks were driven locally, rather than following fake panics created by the wanker-tossers of the London-centric media.
If our media turns itself into a what-the-butler-saw machine, then it loses most of its credibility.1 -
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
As has been said, transmission outdoors is rare so there's arguably less risk being closer than 2m but indoors is going to be a whole different ball game and it's difficult now so come the autumn I can understand why some are concerned about a "second wave".another_richard said:
People seem to be keeping the 2m to me.
Yet we hear reports of it being ignored in parks and beaches.
I wonder if the people doing this ignoring are merely the type of people who think heading to a crowded park or beach is a fun thing to do anyway.
Whereas the 'keep the distance' types are people who generally avoid crowds and congestion.
I imagine on June 15th it'll be queues outside the shops that haven't been open for several weeks and let's not forget even then quite a few shops won't be open if restrictions on cafes, restaurants and pubs remain in place.
There's also the point many towns won't have the custom of office employees, many of whom will still be at home.
0 -
He didn't ignore lockdown, he ignored the very specific advice as to what to do if you had symptoms - STAY HOME AND ISOLATE. Instead he drove to another part of the country and then turned up the local hospital with his kid when he and his wife both had the virus, something that the STAY HOME message was deliberately designed to avoid.Fishing said:
I quite agree. It's probably better for people to be in second homes as they tend to be in the country, and it's probably more difficult to spread a virus if people are in low density areas than in big cities.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO) had just gone to his parents for liockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the "stealth tax" the virus puts on the poor and relief it gives to the rich. But that's just life
The other reason I can't particularly give a damn is that I've been ignoring lockdown restrictions myself so it would be hypocritical of me to care if he does.3 -
Cummings family was not in lockdown. It was in quarantine.isam said:
Yes, that's what seems to bother people.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
I was wondering what would be people's reaction if a couple with a young kid who lived on the 10th floor of a council block moved into one of their parents privately owned houses with a couple of spare rooms and a garden for lockdown?
Even intelligent PBers seem incapable of understanding that distinction.
Track Trace then "Follow your Instincts" will not work. People have to Self Isolate in quaranine for lockdown to be successfully relaxed.
4 -
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
No. Whatever shapes votes is up to the voters. Politics is politics and anyone can vote for whatever they want.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
So you think actually, although it probably moved quite a lot of votes, it shouldn't have really because it was (in your words) a "witch hunt"? If Tony were here now, you'd express deep sympathy that he was damaged over a nothing?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah I wasn't bothered by the lack of resignations at the time. There was a part of me hoping that the Police would find something on Blair, but they didn't so fair enough.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
You've not actually answered my question... which is your prerogative but, in case you missed it:Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky and there was a foul in that money was returned etc, but yeah I don't think anyone had to resign over it. Had anyone been convicted they obviously would have had to.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The timing of Blair's departure was very much influenced by Cash-for-Honours. It's obviously not in his resignation letter, but yes it was a big part of him going that early in the term.Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky but no convictions were there? No, I seem to recall from memory Blair was questioned by the Police but never charged and he never resigned.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think anyone should have resigned over Cash-for-Honours out of interest?Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. I think its reasonable to let a free and fair investigation settle the matter. If he gets convicted of any offence he should go, if he doesn't he should stay.NickPalmer said:
In fairness, the police have to investigate any remotely serious allegation. It shouldn't be taken to imply proof or its absence.williamglenn said:
Convictions matter. Witch hunts don't.
I'm genuinely interested in your approach to it - to be clear, you just think "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
Do you personally think there should have been no resignations? And do you really yourself think, "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
I mean, it's the clear logic of your position, but seems extremely odd as a position to me.
And Jeremy Thorpe ditto, presumably? An innocent man, unfairly reviled and brought low over nothing whatsoever, thinks Philip?
It's a view, I suppose.
Thorpe is before my time.0 -
rottenborough said:
Didn't May suffer from the same problem? So utterly reliant on a tiny tiny set of advisors that she could not listen to anyone else or bear the thought of them not being in the room at every meeting.williamglenn said:Theresa May for PM.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1265356727601565703
Sounds f*cking familiar to me.
Boris's problem is slightly different, the cabinet was, of necessity, chosen almost entirely from nodding-donkey lightweights who were happy with a no deal Brexit. In the main the no deal Brexiteers weren't the sharpest implements in the tool box. Still we could have ended up with Mark Francois as FS I suppose.0 -
The SNP should be worried about a voting intention of 56%?HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
I think not.0 -
We still have a shutdown of much of the economy though that is steadily reducing.OllyT said:another_richard said:
Morgan is yearning for a second peak.rottenborough said:Question of the year:
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1265354055301443587
I am in the Gupta of Oxford hypothesis camp, as in I think and certainly hope there is enough natural immunity and asymptomatic stuff to pretty much avoid a 2nd. But I am not betting on it.
He doesn't even realise that lockdown ended two weeks ago.
It hasn't, not in any real sense. It seems that the worst environments for spreading the infection are crowded indoor spaces, primarily pubs, churches, cinemas, night-clubs and so on. None of these are yet open so I don't think we can draw too many conclusions yet.
In Italy, Spain, France it is now summer and warm and life is largely lived outdoors . This winter will be the real test in Europe.
For those who go to work its not likely to be much different to 'normal' for this time of year - go to work, go to supermarket, have dinner, family stuff, go for a walk, garden, watch tv.
For those working at home or on furlough then things will certainly feel different.0 -
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
Early on in this I think I heard Chris Kamara say he was looking after his grandchildren as their usual residence was a flat. Not sure if they made the move after lockdown, but no one would care too much.isam said:
Yes, that's what seems to bother people.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
I was wondering what would be people's reaction if a couple with a young kid who lived on the 10th floor of a council block moved into one of their parents privately owned houses with a couple of spare rooms and a garden for lockdown?0 -
Monkeys said:
Maybe we should all put a note in our diaries to look back in this three months from now, compare it to the prorogation debate/senseless arm-thrashing, and see if there's anything to learn from comparing these two events.
Did Boris's ratings change substantially during the prorogation debacle? From memory I don't think so.0 -
The next "battle" will be the return to school. Some parents will be keen, others less so.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
I suspect you'll have the Government and its supporters plus the anti-lockdown brigade on one side supporting a maximum return of children and on the other local councils of all stripes, the teachers' unions and Labour taking a more cautious line.
I have no skin in the game but politically it's going to be much easier for the Government to fight this battle and we've already seen the bully pulpit being used by Johnson to urge people to go back to spending money in the shops - I suspect we'll hear an increasing call for parents to send their children back to school.
Should there be sanctions for those who choose not to?0 -
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.1 -
How does anyone even know about it, if not for the media?MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.0 -
Who governs Britain?0
-
Yeah good luck with that. Ill do whatevers best for the kidz is 2020 law.stodge said:
The next "battle" will be the return to school. Some parents will be keen, others less so.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
I suspect you'll have the Government and its supporters plus the anti-lockdown brigade on one side supporting a maximum return of children and on the other local councils of all stripes, the teachers' unions and Labour taking a more cautious line.
I have no skin in the game but politically it's going to be much easier for the Government to fight this battle and we've already seen the bully pulpit being used by Johnson to urge people to go back to spending money in the shops - I suspect we'll hear an increasing call for parents to send their children back to school.
Should there be sanctions for those who choose not to?0 -
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him chose not to "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.4 -
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
Only by retconning Mary's symptoms to be not-Covid allows them to travel.TOPPING said:
Of course. And they were allowed to go there. Or were not forbidden in law from going.isam said:Talking this over with the in laws as well as my own folks, I think the reason I cant get angry about Cummings is that I wouldn't care even if he (and the same goes for the Scottish CMO, and Prince Charles, and the Queen) had just gone to his second home for lockdown because it was nicer. Ultimately I think people with second homes should have been allowed to go there if they wanted to, and the only reason this was not permitted was to blind us to the fact the virus puts a "stealth tax" on the poor and relief to the rich.
But that's life.
It's just that I can't get past the do as I say not as I do thing. There were only a few people involved in actually setting up the law and he was one of them.
At which point you wonder why they travelled.0 -
One poll's Scottish subsample a week ago had the SNP on 41% and Scottish Labour on 32%StuartDickson said:
The SNP should be worried about a voting intention of 56%?HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
I think not.0 -
Philip_Thompson said:
No. Whatever shapes votes is up to the voters. Politics is politics and anyone can vote for whatever they want.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
So you think actually, although it probably moved quite a lot of votes, it shouldn't have really because it was (in your words) a "witch hunt"? If Tony were here now, you'd express deep sympathy that he was damaged over a nothing?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah I wasn't bothered by the lack of resignations at the time. There was a part of me hoping that the Police would find something on Blair, but they didn't so fair enough.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
You've not actually answered my question... which is your prerogative but, in case you missed it:Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky and there was a foul in that money was returned etc, but yeah I don't think anyone had to resign over it. Had anyone been convicted they obviously would have had to.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The timing of Blair's departure was very much influenced by Cash-for-Honours. It's obviously not in his resignation letter, but yes it was a big part of him going that early in the term.Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky but no convictions were there? No, I seem to recall from memory Blair was questioned by the Police but never charged and he never resigned.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think anyone should have resigned over Cash-for-Honours out of interest?Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. I think its reasonable to let a free and fair investigation settle the matter. If he gets convicted of any offence he should go, if he doesn't he should stay.NickPalmer said:
In fairness, the police have to investigate any remotely serious allegation. It shouldn't be taken to imply proof or its absence.williamglenn said:
Convictions matter. Witch hunts don't.
I'm genuinely interested in your approach to it - to be clear, you just think "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
Do you personally think there should have been no resignations? And do you really yourself think, "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
I mean, it's the clear logic of your position, but seems extremely odd as a position to me.
And Jeremy Thorpe ditto, presumably? An innocent man, unfairly reviled and brought low over nothing whatsoever, thinks Philip?
It's a view, I suppose.
Thorpe is before my time.
Thorpe tried to get a peerage after the scandal was over according to the book I have just read!
0 -
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
The point the MPs made was that the emails were NOT from the usual suspects - but staunch [not meant in the Scottish sense] party supporters.Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
Now that's a topic that really matters!stodge said:
The next "battle" will be the return to school. Some parents will be keen, others less so.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
I suspect you'll have the Government and its supporters plus the anti-lockdown brigade on one side supporting a maximum return of children and on the other local councils of all stripes, the teachers' unions and Labour taking a more cautious line.
I have no skin in the game but politically it's going to be much easier for the Government to fight this battle and we've already seen the bully pulpit being used by Johnson to urge people to go back to spending money in the shops - I suspect we'll hear an increasing call for parents to send their children back to school.
Should there be sanctions for those who choose not to?
My daughter's school and the other daughter's nursery has both asked if we want a place for them. Obviously sending children to nursery isn't compulsory but the school have said they're respecting parental choices for the rest of this school year and its not compulsory for them to go back.
No sanctions until next academic year at the very earliest, but I doubt they will return until there's a vaccine.0 -
Is it the Russians? We might find out when Putins memoirs come out.EPG said:Who governs Britain?
0 -
Its like petitions. No number impresses me.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.0 -
That would have made more sense than denying that the most in decades is massive.Philip_Thompson said:
Its like petitions. No number impresses me.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
Are Putin's memoirs locked in the Downing Street safe along with the report on Russian interference in our elections that Boris has mysteriously failed to release?noneoftheabove said:
Is it the Russians? We might find out when Putins memoirs come out.EPG said:Who governs Britain?
0 -
I guess it will depend how much the nation is in the mood for Boris's waffly buffoon persona once the economic consequences of all this sink in.Andy_JS said:
Starmer's slightly po-faced and humourless demeanour would go down well in Wales and Scotland I imagine.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.1 -
I doubt it!DecrepiterJohnL said:
Are Putin's memoirs locked in the Downing Street safe along with the report on Russian interference in our elections that Boris has mysteriously failed to release?noneoftheabove said:
Is it the Russians? We might find out when Putins memoirs come out.EPG said:Who governs Britain?
0 -
You can read?squareroot2 said:Philip_Thompson said:
No. Whatever shapes votes is up to the voters. Politics is politics and anyone can vote for whatever they want.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
So you think actually, although it probably moved quite a lot of votes, it shouldn't have really because it was (in your words) a "witch hunt"? If Tony were here now, you'd express deep sympathy that he was damaged over a nothing?Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah I wasn't bothered by the lack of resignations at the time. There was a part of me hoping that the Police would find something on Blair, but they didn't so fair enough.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
You've not actually answered my question... which is your prerogative but, in case you missed it:Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky and there was a foul in that money was returned etc, but yeah I don't think anyone had to resign over it. Had anyone been convicted they obviously would have had to.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
The timing of Blair's departure was very much influenced by Cash-for-Honours. It's obviously not in his resignation letter, but yes it was a big part of him going that early in the term.Philip_Thompson said:
It was murky but no convictions were there? No, I seem to recall from memory Blair was questioned by the Police but never charged and he never resigned.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Do you think anyone should have resigned over Cash-for-Honours out of interest?Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. I think its reasonable to let a free and fair investigation settle the matter. If he gets convicted of any offence he should go, if he doesn't he should stay.NickPalmer said:
In fairness, the police have to investigate any remotely serious allegation. It shouldn't be taken to imply proof or its absence.williamglenn said:
Convictions matter. Witch hunts don't.
I'm genuinely interested in your approach to it - to be clear, you just think "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
Do you personally think there should have been no resignations? And do you really yourself think, "no foul, no resignation, says nothing about the state of politics and the Labour Party in 2007, all a witch-hunt really as it turns out"?
I mean, it's the clear logic of your position, but seems extremely odd as a position to me.
And Jeremy Thorpe ditto, presumably? An innocent man, unfairly reviled and brought low over nothing whatsoever, thinks Philip?
It's a view, I suppose.
Thorpe is before my time.
Thorpe tried to get a peerage after the scandal was over according to the book I have just read!0 -
I guess volume is a hard one to judge based on history, as I'd imagine quite a few people have got more time on their hands at the moment and it wouldn't shock me if that was a factor in the numbers.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
But MPs aren't daft - they are jittery not just about the number but also heartfelt nature and previous voting record of these - that's pretty clear. And they know who all the local sh1t-stirrers are who they can safely ignore.0 -
I thought we voted for Boris to be PM not Cummings? At best Cummings is a Peter Mandelson type finger, an effective strategist but with poor personal judgementwilliamglenn said:0 -
Its still not massive even if it is the most in decades. Just as with petitions millions isn't massive when tens of millions vote in elections/referenda.noneoftheabove said:
That would have made more sense than denying that the most in decades is massive.Philip_Thompson said:
Its like petitions. No number impresses me.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party can get hundreds of votes in a constituency. The Lib Dems can get thousands and lose their deposit. Hundreds isn't massive, its OMRLP volumes.0 -
I'm busted ☺MaxPB said:
Lol, I live down the road from you and didn't even realise there was anything planned, balcony doors open. Maybe it just happened in your flat...kinabalu said:
It was MASSIVE round here. Could hardly hear myself think.Philip_Thompson said:
Did you have fun? Do you feel big or clever?kinabalu said:Quick reminder. "Boo for Boris" in 3 minutes at 8.
Be there or be square.
Or are you a big square?
Clearly will run and run - so see you next Tuesday basically.0 -
Mandelson was a party man. Cummings is not.HYUFD said:
I thought we voted for Boris to be PM not Cummings? At best Cummings is a Peter Mandelson type finger, an effective strategist but with poor judgementwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/12653658919292518450 -
But you seem to be impressed by "the people," presumably meaning a substantial majority of the people - the precise number being plucked out of your arse. MPs are dealing with numbers which are within their own first hand knowledge and experience. So it makes more sense to listen to them, than to you.Philip_Thompson said:
Its like petitions. No number impresses me.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.0 -
Lol!HYUFD said:
One poll's Scottish subsample a week ago had the SNP on 41% and Scottish Labour on 32%StuartDickson said:
The SNP should be worried about a voting intention of 56%?HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
I think not.
Would you like to take a bet that no Scotland only poll will have Lab on 32% or over for say the next 6 months?0 -
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.0 -
If he rated anyone in the cabinet he would have them sacked! The cabinet have been chosen for a reason. Empty vessels that will do what they are told.williamglenn said:
Mandelson was a party man. Cummings is not.HYUFD said:
I thought we voted for Boris to be PM not Cummings? At best Cummings is a Peter Mandelson type finger, an effective strategist but with poor judgementwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/12653658919292518452 -
Indeed but how much has it cut through in a way that matters?Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Or has it cut through in that its this week's thing people speak about but by next week they've moved on? Today its Dominic Cummings people are talking about, tomorrow it could be Caitlyn Jenner for all we know..0 -
-
Fine by me!HYUFD said:
One poll's Scottish subsample a week ago had the SNP on 41% and Scottish Labour on 32%StuartDickson said:
The SNP should be worried about a voting intention of 56%?HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
I think not.
That would give virtually no change in SNP seats and would wipe out the Tories. Again.
SNP 47 seats (-1)
SLab 11 seats (+10)
SLD 1 seat (-3)
SCon 0 seats (-6)0 -
Never seen Tommy Robinson's mob in action I take it. There are morons right across the political spectrum and it is foolish to argue otherwise.backinthedhss said:
Terrifying a 4 year old is OK with you then? I know it is for his constituency MP, though of course she squealed when Soubry was accosted.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1265362670598983680
That's funny, because normally he enjoys make sarcastic comments to the journalists outside his house.
Now suddenly he aint laughing.
Nor are we mate, nor are we.
This episode has shown what a seriously nasty bunch of people the left, and the Europhile media, really are
Just grow up and stop being such a moron
Anyone in the eye of a political storm invariably gets subjected to a media frenzy. There is absolutely nothing unique about this situation.0 -
That its a joke though doesn't surprise me. That's what it will be for most normal people.MaxPB said:
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Twitter will go apeshit, but normal people I'd expect jokes more.0 -
This issue has cut through. In our office, we've received almost 1000 emails about it since Friday evening, which is comparable to an entire month of policy inquiries in 'normal' times, and even excluding all the Cummings stuff, we've had 4x the emails we had in May 2019.
On the other hand, there's a high correlation between people writing in about Cummings and people who had previously written in to tell us how much they hated the Government/Brexit/Johnson; yes, there is a lot of anger, but the people being most vocal about it hated Cummings before this anyway, this is just another excuse to write in.
At this point I suspect the damage is done and anyone who is angry about this to the point that they're saying they will ignore lockdown guidance won't be calmed down if he gets sacked.
Another interesting trend in the last 8 hours or so - a very noticable uptick in the proportion of supportive emails, mostly people complaining about how the media has begun to hound Cummings, which might dampen any planned revolts by Tory MPs over the next week.0 -
Reopening schools is complicated. If you look at what the government is saying, it is not that the schools will reopen on 1st or 15th June, but that Year X starts and then Year Y starts because reasons. There is no big bang type return to the status quo ante.stodge said:
The next "battle" will be the return to school. Some parents will be keen, others less so.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
I suspect you'll have the Government and its supporters plus the anti-lockdown brigade on one side supporting a maximum return of children and on the other local councils of all stripes, the teachers' unions and Labour taking a more cautious line.
I have no skin in the game but politically it's going to be much easier for the Government to fight this battle and we've already seen the bully pulpit being used by Johnson to urge people to go back to spending money in the shops - I suspect we'll hear an increasing call for parents to send their children back to school.
Should there be sanctions for those who choose not to?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/preparing-for-the-wider-opening-of-schools-from-1-june/planning-guide-for-secondary-schools
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/preparing-for-the-wider-opening-of-schools-from-1-june/planning-guide-for-primary-schools0 -
Translate to Holyrood with PR and you get a comfortable Unionist majority next year.StuartDickson said:
Fine by me!HYUFD said:
One poll's Scottish subsample a week ago had the SNP on 41% and Scottish Labour on 32%StuartDickson said:
The SNP should be worried about a voting intention of 56%?HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
I think not.
That would give virtually no change in SNP seats and would wipe out the Tories. Again.
SNP 47 seats (-1)
SLab 11 seats (+10)
SLD 1 seat (-3)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
At Westminster actually David Mundell and John Lamont would hold their seats0 -
I've always been of the opinion that our sense of humour gets us through. People making a joke about something political is a good thing.Philip_Thompson said:
That its a joke though doesn't surprise me. That's what it will be for most normal people.MaxPB said:
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Twitter will go apeshit, but normal people I'd expect jokes more.
@MaxPB was going off on one about Hancock and PPE a few weeks ago. That turned into a non story because almost every country has been struggling. And then we got through the shortage. He was telling me how his political instincts were better than mine. I bit my tongue.1 -
Where have I said I am impressed by "the people"? I don't think I've ever said that.IshmaelZ said:
But you seem to be impressed by "the people," presumably meaning a substantial majority of the people - the precise number being plucked out of your arse. MPs are dealing with numbers which are within their own first hand knowledge and experience. So it makes more sense to listen to them, than to you.Philip_Thompson said:
Its like petitions. No number impresses me.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
I respect democracy. And as for MPs I see a tiny number of Tories putting their heads above the parapets, mainly nobodies, remainers or egocentrics (Steve Hardman Baker). My MP got over 30,000 votes last election, if we were talking that many legitimate contacts from voters then yes it would be impressive, but OMRLP numbers of unverifiable contacts are not.0 -
No, the Tory party has become the joke. Not the situation. No one is joking about it in an "oh that Dominic guy, what a hilarious thing he did". The party has been stained by this and it won't live it down until Boris and Dom are gone.Philip_Thompson said:
That its a joke though doesn't surprise me. That's what it will be for most normal people.MaxPB said:
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Twitter will go apeshit, but normal people I'd expect jokes more.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Its already cut thru whether people talk about it next week or not.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed but how much has it cut through in a way that matters?Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Or has it cut through in that its this week's thing people speak about but by next week they've moved on? Today its Dominic Cummings people are talking about, tomorrow it could be Caitlyn Jenner for all we know..
On my walk today, pedestrian traffic was up 250-400% on previous recent weekdays, now thats partly good weather but mostly people seeing lockdown as over. And a big part of that, shown in all todays polling, is down to a collective feeling of, if the elite dont follow the rules, why should everyone else?
Now I actually think the country should be increasing its outdoor activity, so wouldnt be surprised if this is even beneficial, but it has certainly made an impact that will last throughout the year.0 -
We'll see.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed but how much has it cut through in a way that matters?Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Or has it cut through in that its this week's thing people speak about but by next week they've moved on? Today its Dominic Cummings people are talking about, tomorrow it could be Caitlyn Jenner for all we know..
Btw, I was shocked to learn you are too young to remember Jeremy Thorpe. I thought you were an old dinosaur like me. Such reactionary views at your age, Philip.....dear dear!0 -
With Richard Leonard in charge?CorrectHorseBattery said:Scottish Labour will make a comeback.
He’s 20/1 to be FM next year.0 -
Tommy Robinson's mob are scum.OllyT said:
Never seen Tommy Robinson's mob in action I take it. There are morons right across the political spectrum and it is foolish to argue otherwise.backinthedhss said:
Terrifying a 4 year old is OK with you then? I know it is for his constituency MP, though of course she squealed when Soubry was accosted.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1265362670598983680
That's funny, because normally he enjoys make sarcastic comments to the journalists outside his house.
Now suddenly he aint laughing.
Nor are we mate, nor are we.
This episode has shown what a seriously nasty bunch of people the left, and the Europhile media, really are
Just grow up and stop being such a moron
Anyone in the eye of a political storm invariably gets subjected to a media frenzy. There is absolutely nothing unique about this situation.
Anyone who chooses to act like him are scum.0 -
-
Look at the government rating on dealing with the virus. Even before all of this it's been going down. It started with the whole Turkey PPE issue. Ever since then it's been downhill, just like the dementia tax started the rot for May, the PPE debacle did for the government on this issue.Mortimer said:
I've always been of the opinion that our sense of humour gets us through. People making a joke about something political is a good thing.Philip_Thompson said:
That its a joke though doesn't surprise me. That's what it will be for most normal people.MaxPB said:
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Twitter will go apeshit, but normal people I'd expect jokes more.
@MaxPB was going off on one about Hancock and PPE a few weeks ago. That turned into a non story because almost every country has been struggling. And then we got through the shortage. He was telling me how his political instincts were better than mine. I bit my tongue.
I was right then and right again. Your political instincts are fine for rural Tory England, for working class voters you haven't got a clue.0 -
Indeed. I normally agree with Max on most things but lately he has been rather unrelentingly negative.Mortimer said:
I've always been of the opinion that our sense of humour gets us through. People making a joke about something political is a good thing.Philip_Thompson said:
That its a joke though doesn't surprise me. That's what it will be for most normal people.MaxPB said:
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Twitter will go apeshit, but normal people I'd expect jokes more.
@MaxPB was going off on one about Hancock and PPE a few weeks ago. That turned into a non story because almost every country has been struggling. And then we got through the shortage. He was telling me how his political instincts were better than mine. I bit my tongue.
Hopefully that will pass after lockdown is completely over.0 -
Given more than half my extended family are working class voters, and I live in a town larger than many cities, I think I'll reserve judgement on that.MaxPB said:
Look at the government rating on dealing with the virus. Even before all of this it's been going down. It started with the whole Turkey PPE issue. Ever since then it's been downhill, just like the dementia tax started the rot for May, the PPE debacle did for the government on this issue.Mortimer said:
I've always been of the opinion that our sense of humour gets us through. People making a joke about something political is a good thing.Philip_Thompson said:
That its a joke though doesn't surprise me. That's what it will be for most normal people.MaxPB said:
One of my non-political friends made a joke about using having a social meet up in Durham when this is done and similar ones are all over Instagram. I think Instagram is the anti-twitter in gauging how much cut through a political scandal has. Twitter can go completely apeshit for days and it won't register on Instagram and I know no one in real life cares. Once something political hits Instagram then it's clear that everyone is talking about it.Peter_the_Punter said:
I've been struck by the number of non-political types who have mentioned it spontaneously. For example, I just came back in from the garden and chatting with my Australian neighbours who casually referred to DC as '...a lying bastard', only they didn't put it quite so delicately.MaxPB said:
No, the people do care. Maybe in your little bubble they don't, but in mine people are absolutely seething. Everyone wants him gone. Your dancing on the head of a pin about guidelines, rules, reasonableness is complete bullshit to everyone with more than half a brain cell. Every person in this country was asked to make serious sacrifices to their lifestyle, most of us did so because we were told the NHS would collapse if we didn't. Now the PM's chief advisor chose not to make the same sacrifices the rest of us were asked to make, his actions are an insult to every single person who has stuck to the rules, every single person who had missed a funeral, every single couple who have delayed weddings, every single person who hasn't seen their parents or grandparents for weeks, every single person who has lost a loved one because people like him couldn't "stay home, protect the NHS and save lives". He has shamed our party and Boris has done the same by sticking by him. I was a member for over 8 years, I campaigned for Boris, I campaigned for Dave, I campaigned for Leave and I campaigned for Boris again.Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
We cannot have anyone in the party who believes the rules are for the little people. It isn't acceptable. Your responses about his actions being reasonable and not breaking any laws are completely and utterly laughable and frankly make me glad to no longer be a member of a party that you and HYFUD are still a part of.
Yes, I think the issue has cut-through.
Twitter will go apeshit, but normal people I'd expect jokes more.
@MaxPB was going off on one about Hancock and PPE a few weeks ago. That turned into a non story because almost every country has been struggling. And then we got through the shortage. He was telling me how his political instincts were better than mine. I bit my tongue.
I was right then and right again. Your political instincts are fine for rural Tory England, for working class voters you haven't got a clue.0 -
So, not only are you saying that Westminster VI and Holyrood VI are the same, but you are predicting a comfortable Unionist majority next year... based on one, outlier sub-sample. Jeeez.HYUFD said:
Translate to Holyrood with PR and you get a comfortable Unionist majority next year.StuartDickson said:
Fine by me!HYUFD said:
One poll's Scottish subsample a week ago had the SNP on 41% and Scottish Labour on 32%StuartDickson said:
The SNP should be worried about a voting intention of 56%?HYUFD said:
The SNP should be more worried about that polling than the Tories. Even with a UK wide majority the Tories do not win Scotland.StuartDickson said:Starmer doing much better in Wales and Scotland than in his home country:
Net favourability (Survation):
Wales +28
Scotland +23
England +16
NI -8
The Scottish splits are utterly horrific for the SCons: a poor 3rd and heading for wipeout. Again.
SLab will be tremendously encouraged by these polls.
Labour however had a majority of seats in Scotland just 10 years ago
I think not.
That would give virtually no change in SNP seats and would wipe out the Tories. Again.
SNP 47 seats (-1)
SLab 11 seats (+10)
SLD 1 seat (-3)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
At Westminster actually David Mundell and John Lamont would hold their seats0 -
MPs quite rightly take the view that their postbag (email inbox now) is the tip of the iceberg. That, for everyone who writes to them to express a view, there are quite a few who hold the view and don't write.Philip_Thompson said:
Its still not massive even if it is the most in decades. Just as with petitions millions isn't massive when tens of millions vote in elections/referenda.noneoftheabove said:
That would have made more sense than denying that the most in decades is massive.Philip_Thompson said:
Its like petitions. No number impresses me.noneoftheabove said:
What is a massive amount of unprompted complaints for an MP? Seeing as they are saying it is the most in decades?Philip_Thompson said:
Hundreds is not massive - and many of them will be from pre-existing partisan critics jumping on a passing media bandwagon.IshmaelZ said:
MPs have been saying all day that they are getting hundreds of unprompted complaints about cummings. Are the MPs lying? Are these people not peoplish enough for your purposes, or what?Philip_Thompson said:
Its my opinion. No more, no less. But its well known is it not that Yes/No answers get responded to a lot more than people actually care about. Ask people a question and they'll give you an answer but is it what they're actually caring about? By next week will that really be what they're thinking about?IshmaelZ said:
Why do you think you have privileged insight into what "the people" want?Philip_Thompson said:
The people don't care. Ask a prompted leading question in a poll, get a leading answer.MaxPB said:
No, it's not the fucking media you cretin. This isn't a whipped up media storm. The people want him gone.Philip_Thompson said:
The media may be losing their minds, but we are moving on. Both my children are returning to education next week [nursery has been in touch now to confirm they're reopening]. Shops are reopening soon. The media may not know what matters, but I think people do.MaxPB said:Just looking through the by specimen date testing data and I think England is definitely through the worst of it. Under 1000 new cases per day in England and dropping rapidly down to just 500 per day.
The by death date hospital deaths report has a very similar story, I think we're actually under 100 hospital deaths per day in England and under 150 total deaths per day. Interestingly there hasn't been a rise in community transmission after the VE Day celebrations that everyone was so worried about. In fact new cases and deaths have continued to fall fairly rapidly since then. I also think that the lockdown since then has been extremely loose and we've not seen a rise in new cases.
It's a real shame that the government is getting distracted by this Cummings bullshit because there is finally some really positive news on the virus and I think as a nation our sacrifices have begun to pay off and we can start getting back to normal. Social distancing indoors and do what you like outdoors seems to result in an R of around 0.8-0.9 which means it will take 5-6 more weeks to get the new cases down to a negligible amount but it means we can open up beer gardens, cafés and other outdoor venues.
Shamefully we're now going to spend the next week on whether or not one arsehole gets the sack or not instead of finally moving on from lockdown.
The media wants blood but people are looking to the future not the past. Next week expect more announcements on lifting the lockdown and only an idiot will still be talking about Cummings by the end of next week IMHO. Already the sting has gone.
If you ask people unprompted their top issues I doubt they'll mention Cummings - and once this media circus moves on they won't either.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party can get hundreds of votes in a constituency. The Lib Dems can get thousands and lose their deposit. Hundreds isn't massive, its OMRLP volumes.
That's my experience canvassing - if a small handful of letters, emails and so on suggest X is an issue, and you knock on doors nearby, normally (not always but normally) you'll flush out loads more than that as soon as you say "any local concerns at the moment?".0
