That's a good break for Newcastle fans. You might imagine there could hardly be a more disreputabe owner than Mike Ashley but it was looking like one had been found.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
If I had been in any doubt whether this has achieved cut-through, my elder sister who never discusses politics ever (she can talk for England about classical music and non-conformist church minutiae) has stuck up a bad joke about Dominic Cummings on Facebook.
really? If it’s a worse joke than Cummings himself, it must be bad.
He’s made PopBitch’s joke of the day.
Did you hear who Dominic Cummings bumped into in Specsavers?
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
It is worth reminding ourselves that sensible voices within Labour were raising alarm about Formby before she was appointed, both because there was a bad smell about appointing Len McCluskey’s mistress to a key role and because of her long history of ‘anti-Zionist’ activity.
THis article made sense at the time, but it looks like positively prophetic in hindsight:
Love the idea that the job of government as well as making up the law without the help of parliament (Virus Regs 2020) are allowed to interpret it as they go along, undermine it at will and decide by themselves to vary sentence and quash conviction. Move over Divisional Court and Court of Appeal (Criminal Division), the government is going to do it for you.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
The last two or three days on here have been utterly dull.
Instead of yakking on about some overpromoted twerp who went for a drive, and utterly pointless early-term opinion polls, can we discuss how to get out of lockdown?
Especially in London where new cases / deaths are at trace levels.
There are pubs to be opened, hotels to visit and places to go.
Get us out of this lockdown!
Getting out of lockdown is simple. 1 Get case numbers down to manageably low. Lockdown is achieving this, but it takes time. Tough. 2 Have an effective test'n'track system. That's eminently doable, but the best way to get there is Keep It Simple. People, not apps- at least to start with. 3 Have lots of masks and handgel available. 4 Work out what to do with tricky situations. If lots of people meet indoors and sing loudly, they shouldn't. Which activities can't happen, and how does the community help people working in them?
It's simple but boring stuff. Less fun than "let's make an app" or "reopen shops in 3 weeks" but it's the way out.
The numbers are already at manageable lows. My three NHS mates tell me there is nothing to do on Covid wards. Get on with the rest.
Ban churches and singing indoors. Keep nightclubs shut. Open pubs with beer gardens.
Get on with it.
Sort out test'n'track, and I'd agree with you. The WHO were saying that back in February, and it's depressing how slow the progress on tracking infrastructure has been.
Trouble has been the focus on gimmicks that haven't really worked over unglamorous stuff that will.
Agree with that completely. The much vaunted app on June 1 is likely to be a bust I am told. Get Apple to build one and bloody well get moving.
Although I think Big Dom should have gone straight away, all the wibbling about if he touched a petrol pump or stopped for a whizz at the side of the road could be "endangering lives", is basically bollocks compared to weeks of delay on the app. That is genuinely endangering lives every day it isn't out there.
100%, as the youth like to put it. The former is about the moral authority to govern, the latter is a serious failure of administration. Given the choice, I'd rather have immoral competents than moral incompetents.
Sadly, we seem to have the worst of both worlds.
It is exact repeat of the testing balls up. PHE / government decided that PHE lab could do enough and that antibody tests were definitely going to work (despite being unproven and from China, who already had a dodgy rep during this crisis). Then the antibody tests didn't work and left with piss poor capacity via the PHE lab.
Eventually they have got there with public / private partnership, and despite massaging the figures, they are now definitely testing a lot of people and doing the right thing, but a month too late.
This app will be the same. They have gone all in on NHSX approach, it isn't going to work. They will then pivot and use the Google / Apple approach and we will get a decent app, a month too late.
How many billions does a month cost us ? And how many lives might it have cost ?
Love the idea that the job of government as well as making up the law without the help of parliament (Virus Regs 2020) are allowed to interpret it as they go along, undermine it at will and decide by themselves to vary sentence and quash conviction. Move over Divisional Court and Court of Appeal (Criminal Division), the government is going to do it for you.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
Hmm I always assumed with the Gov't assuming emergency powers there was an "unspoken" requirement to err be well reasonable and fair in their operation.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
Love the idea that the job of government as well as making up the law without the help of parliament (Virus Regs 2020) are allowed to interpret it as they go along, undermine it at will and decide by themselves to vary sentence and quash conviction. Move over Divisional Court and Court of Appeal (Criminal Division), the government is going to do it for you.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
Hmm I always assumed with the Gov't assuming emergency powers there was an "unspoken" requirement to err be well reasonable and fair in their operation.
I'd assumed (from far away) that police were mostly telling people to go home, rather than issuing fines - other than in the most egregious cases such as people hosting noisy house parties and pubs that wouldn't shut??
The last two or three days on here have been utterly dull.
Instead of yakking on about some overpromoted twerp who went for a drive, and utterly pointless early-term opinion polls, can we discuss how to get out of lockdown?
Especially in London where new cases / deaths are at trace levels.
There are pubs to be opened, hotels to visit and places to go.
Get us out of this lockdown!
Getting out of lockdown is simple. 1 Get case numbers down to manageably low. Lockdown is achieving this, but it takes time. Tough. 2 Have an effective test'n'track system. That's eminently doable, but the best way to get there is Keep It Simple. People, not apps- at least to start with. 3 Have lots of masks and handgel available. 4 Work out what to do with tricky situations. If lots of people meet indoors and sing loudly, they shouldn't. Which activities can't happen, and how does the community help people working in them?
It's simple but boring stuff. Less fun than "let's make an app" or "reopen shops in 3 weeks" but it's the way out.
The numbers are already at manageable lows. My three NHS mates tell me there is nothing to do on Covid wards. Get on with the rest.
Ban churches and singing indoors. Keep nightclubs shut. Open pubs with beer gardens.
Get on with it.
Sort out test'n'track, and I'd agree with you. The WHO were saying that back in February, and it's depressing how slow the progress on tracking infrastructure has been.
Trouble has been the focus on gimmicks that haven't really worked over unglamorous stuff that will.
Agree with that completely. The much vaunted app on June 1 is likely to be a bust I am told. Get Apple to build one and bloody well get moving.
Although I think Big Dom should have gone straight away, all the wibbling about if he touched a petrol pump or stopped for a whizz at the side of the road could be "endangering lives", is basically bollocks compared to weeks of delay on the app. That is genuinely endangering lives every day it isn't out there.
100%, as the youth like to put it. The former is about the moral authority to govern, the latter is a serious failure of administration. Given the choice, I'd rather have immoral competents than moral incompetents.
Sadly, we seem to have the worst of both worlds.
It is exact repeat of the testing balls up. PHE / government decided that PHE lab could do enough and that antibody tests were definitely going to work (despite being unproven and from China, who already had a dodgy rep during this crisis). Then the antibody tests didn't work and left with piss poor capacity via the PHE lab.
Eventually they have got there with public / private partnership, and despite massaging the figures, they are now definitely testing a lot of people and doing the right thing, but a month too late.
This app will be the same. They have gone all in on NHSX approach, it isn't going to work. They will then pivot and use the Google / Apple approach and we will get a decent app, a month too late.
Part of it is this weird obsession with everything having to be world class. There are 200 nations in the world, we will not be in the top 10 at everything.
Often good enough, at a fair price and on time is what we need to aim at.
There is no competitive advantage an having a better system, late.
As with every Bank Holiday (or post Bank Holiday period) the plethora of figures thrown at us (with accompanying lines on graphs from HMG and academics) need a little time to sink in.
Back over 2,000 cases concerns me - I'd like to see us heading down to 1,000 or lower. While the daily "death toll" continues to decline, the fact remains at least 55,000 people have perished from this dreadful virus to date.
I've said before I'd like us to be sub 100 deaths daily and sub 1000 new cases daily and they should be the objective before further easing of lockdown restrictions. To be fair, while most people seem to think the re-opening of non-essential retail is a done deal, I do believe it is "contingent on further progress in reducing the virus".
Once again, plenty of confusion as to what is included in "non essential retail" and what isn't. Betting shops are apparently included so we should remember it's our "civic duty" to go out and spend money gambling on Ascot if we've anything left over from the new car we have to buy next week.
It will be interesting to see how and indeed if smaller shops will try to enforce social distancing and whether there will be any kind of attempt at enforcement - would a local council close a shop if it wasn't complying with guidelines?
We also still have the thorny issue of school re-opening next week and the battle lines between the Government, their media supporters and the anti-lockdwon brigade on one side and Local Councils, some schools, teachers' unions and Labour on the other.
If I were a political cynic, I'd argue this is a battle the Government will be looking forward to as it seeks to regain confidence.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Down from the dizzy heights of 55% a few weeks ago.
And higher than the lead that won the election resoundingly.
Honestly, it's as if if almost everyone has gone insane. This nothing story is going to end in a damp squib, as the media's over-egging bores the living shite out of everyone and they move on to something - anything - else.
We're got the re-opening of the economy, we've got Remdesivir on the NHS, we've got sewage monitoring as an early warning system, we've got plummeting daily death rates...
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Well exactly, and herein is the conundrum. If more contact equates to more cases, then we’d have seen a second spike last week. Remember the outrage over all those people fraternising in London parks in the April warm spell? We were assured it would trigger a second spike.
Part of it is this weird obsession with everything having to be world class. There are 200 nations in the world, we will not be in the top 10 at everything.
Unfortunately I can think of one area that we're going to be top 10.
Neither Apple nor Google are building an app. They are providing an API.
I had a chat with a friend at Imperial - interestingly, the core of track and trace *isn't* the app. It's the tracing organisation.
Apparently in South Korea et al only a portion of the contact tracing work relies on mobile data, and much of that is not from bluetooth proximity data.
Credit card data is apparently a much bigger helper.
Apparently this relates to the fact that casual contact isn't the big source of infection. Passing by someone for x seconds, 1 meter away isn't the issue. It's who you talked to, apparently.
So the people you talked to. Who was in the shop you went to at the same time etc...
This would explain the reports that Scotland is not going down the route of using an app.
Exactly. The "app" is a red herring. The places doing best at track and trace have thrown privacy out the window and are letting health authorities use CCTV, ANPR, credit card data, mobile phone signalling data, and public transit data. You don't need a bloody app, people leave an electronic trail of everywhere they go as it is. The flakey "app" approach is only really interesting to western countries that get het up about privacy. Singapore, Israel, South Korea, Taiwan, and I dare say others, are much more relaxed about letting the state surveille the population.
UK track and trace will be using credit card data from businesses and public transit data - TfL data for example. Pretty sure they will be using raw cell phone positioning data as well - the stuff that the carriers collect, and downloading history from infected peoples phones.
Took half-day off today, went for a walk through town and out onto the Heath. Lovely weather, blue skies, skylarks. Well worth the trip.
A lot of people out as well, despite it being 2pm on a Monday and most folk still having jobs to do. Based on what I've seen, I'd say that the 2m rule is still very much alive but people have well and truly had it with staying at home.
Not that they will necessarily be interested in the non-essential shops when they open back up, of course. I've been watching the news report about this. You can't make a day of it (you have to go round on your own, and there are still no cafes and restaurants to stop at for lunch.) You can't try on clothes. You're not meant to touch anything, so Lord alone knows how you're meant to rummage the rails and get a proper look at anything. You'll have to queue to get into anywhere you want to visit.
I reckon there'll be an initial dash by some shoppers, reflecting some pent-up demand and the novelty of stores being open again, but after one or two weekends trade will drop right back off. If you take practically all the advantages of physical retail away then why would people not stick to online?
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
Took half-day off today, went for a walk through town and out onto the Heath. Lovely weather, blue skies, skylarks. Well worth the trip.
A lot of people out as well, despite it being 2pm on a Monday and most folk still having jobs to do. Based on what I've seen, I'd say that the 2m rule is still very much alive but people have well and truly had it with staying at home.
Not that they will necessarily be interested in the non-essential shops when they open back up, of course. I've been watching the news report about this. You can't make a day of it (you have to go round on your own, and there are still no cafes and restaurants to stop at for lunch.) You can't try on clothes. You're not meant to touch anything, so Lord alone knows how you're meant to rummage the rails and get a proper look at anything. You'll have to queue to get into anywhere you want to visit.
I reckon there'll be an initial dash by some shoppers, reflecting some pent-up demand and the novelty of stores being open again, but after one or two weekends trade will drop right back off. If you take practically all the advantages of physical retail away then why would people not stick to online?
It's been established transmission outdoors is rare. That comes from the information gathering and analysing process we've had to go through. Outdoors is pretty safe so outdoor activities (garden centres, car showrooms and the like) can re-start.
Transmission is much more likely to occur indoors in confined spaces. That may well mean summer will be a quiet time as we are more often out and about but what happens when the autumn chill comes and we all dash indoors again?
UK track and trace will be using credit card data from businesses and public transit data - TfL data for example. Pretty sure they will be using raw cell phone positioning data as well - the stuff that the carriers collect, and downloading history from infected peoples phones.
Ha, maybe the real point of the "app" is to make people think they were located in a voluntary fashion rather than by the security dragnet?
It's been established transmission outdoors is rare. That comes from the information gathering and analysing process we've had to go through. Outdoors is pretty safe so outdoor activities (garden centres, car showrooms and the like) can re-start.
Transmission is much more likely to occur indoors in confined spaces. That may well mean summer will be a quiet time as we are more often out and about but what happens when the autumn chill comes and we all dash indoors again?
Dunno. Maybe.
But... Even in countries where is is autumn now there is no evidence of a second peak as far as I can see. Puzzling.
The last two or three days on here have been utterly dull.
Instead of yakking on about some overpromoted twerp who went for a drive, and utterly pointless early-term opinion polls, can we discuss how to get out of lockdown?
Especially in London where new cases / deaths are at trace levels.
There are pubs to be opened, hotels to visit and places to go.
Get us out of this lockdown!
I'm not sure you can sling the accusation of dullness around since your every post appears to boil down to you wanting a pint. I can sympathise with the urge, but it's, well, not very interesting.
It's boiled down to:
"I want to go to the pub, therefore lockdown must be wrong because...
- There's not a problem - Sweden's done it fine - Some professor says it's all over and the maximum death toll will be under seven thousand - I'm all right Jack, pull the ladder up (what do you mean, under 60s might be reasonably likely to be so ill, they'll be hospitalised - no, they almost always recover so they're practically immune) - Oh, I'm just bored, open the pubs"
Really, that’s not the case.
Daft post.
Dude, that's the impression you give. You keep insisting that it's not a problem for under-sixties, despite the issue of them getting so ill they can be hospitalised (and the concerns about letting it rip overloading the hospitals).
Believe me, I want it over with. I have to explain again and again to a distressed severely autistic boy why he's not at school, why McDonalds is closed, why we have to be so careful when we're outside, why we can't go and see Nanna.
Again and again and again and again.
And Christ, I want to go to a restaurant with my family. We used to love eating out.
But 60,000+ people have died. The disease can really fuck people up, even younger ones (I know of a half-dozen people who've had it, and the one we're closest to is 26, ultra-fit, and no underlying health concerns - and took well over a month to be close to all right again. Albeit still with some breathing issues). And I would find it hard to live with myself if we got it and passed it on, and in the chain we passed it onto, someone died. Or multiple people died.
It's not about us, or our freedom, anymore than drink-driving should be up to ourselves to judge and take the risk (and we could note that cars are so much safer these days that if we get drunk and crash, the driver's far more likely to be okay).
We're getting there. Cases are well down, and if we get a reliable test-and-trace app, or a twenty-minute reliable self-contained test, we can get so much more going.
The worst thing to happen - after all this - is for us to face a second spike and need to lock down again. I really don't know how I'd be able to explain it to my son that sorry, after getting things sort of back to normal, we've got to go back to this.
I'm sure falling downstairs can really f8ck you up too, and many people are more likely to die of this than COVID.
I will do my best to avoid any infectious falling-down-the-stairs plague, even if that weren’t a completely bogus equivalent (comparing fatality rates only when the point was on severe illness which is many times more likely (at c. 4% of 40-50 year olds) and when covering the risk of health system overload which would drastically multiply the death rates in the younger echelons)
Took half-day off today, went for a walk through town and out onto the Heath. Lovely weather, blue skies, skylarks. Well worth the trip.
A lot of people out as well, despite it being 2pm on a Monday and most folk still having jobs to do. Based on what I've seen, I'd say that the 2m rule is still very much alive but people have well and truly had it with staying at home.
Not that they will necessarily be interested in the non-essential shops when they open back up, of course. I've been watching the news report about this. You can't make a day of it (you have to go round on your own, and there are still no cafes and restaurants to stop at for lunch.) You can't try on clothes. You're not meant to touch anything, so Lord alone knows how you're meant to rummage the rails and get a proper look at anything. You'll have to queue to get into anywhere you want to visit.
I reckon there'll be an initial dash by some shoppers, reflecting some pent-up demand and the novelty of stores being open again, but after one or two weekends trade will drop right back off. If you take practically all the advantages of physical retail away then why would people not stick to online?
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
I wonder, though, if any have been fined for travelling from their primary address to a second home nearer to family with their child?
And I wonder if any of those has had symptoms at the time?
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
Matt Hancock did not say the words you heard him say.
Just how fucking stupid are these people?
He did not give a commitment to review the fines.
Only to speak with the Treasury about it and report back at the daily news briefing podium about whether it was able to reverse the fines
Regardless of whether they will reverse the fines or not, it is unconscionable that Hancock is suggesting this. If it applied to all those fined at the time, then it applied to Cummings. No ifs, no buts.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Well exactly, and herein is the conundrum. If more contact equates to more cases, then we’d have seen a second spike last week. Remember the outrage over all those people fraternising in London parks in the April warm spell? We were assured it would trigger a second spike.
But it didn’t.
A lot of medics are still frightened that the second wave will come as lockdown continues to be eased. Others insist that it will come in the Winter. The truth is, this is a new disease, and I know this is a statement of Coronaheresy, BUT... they're all just guessing, aren't they? Some of them might be right, but then again the scientists who claim that the worst of the disease is past and that there will never be a second wave might also be right. We don't know.
As you say, all we do know right now is there have been a series of panics over the London parks, people flocking to seaside resorts, the effects of relaxing the exercise rules and so on, and none of these has yet triggered the initiation of the dreaded second wave. Little or no evidence has thus far been presented of a trade-off between relaxation of restrictions and R, and the hospital admissions and the deaths have continued to decline regardless of what actions have been taken to date.
Infections might still take off again when we reach some critical threshold - perhaps if and when the 2m rule is replaced by a 1m rule, or when the restaurants are allowed to trade, or when there's a mass return of kids to school. But there's no sign of it yet.
They're not even publicly antisemitic, or proud supporters of terrorism against the British state.
So Aaron-Bastani-nee-Peters-with-the-questionable-Phd appears to be complaining that these people aren't racist enough to have a senior role in his party?
Love the idea that the job of government as well as making up the law without the help of parliament (Virus Regs 2020) are allowed to interpret it as they go along, undermine it at will and decide by themselves to vary sentence and quash conviction. Move over Divisional Court and Court of Appeal (Criminal Division), the government is going to do it for you.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
Hmm I always assumed with the Gov't assuming emergency powers there was an "unspoken" requirement to err be well reasonable and fair in their operation.
I'd assumed (from far away) that police were mostly telling people to go home, rather than issuing fines - other than in the most egregious cases such as people hosting noisy house parties and pubs that wouldn't shut??
I think as a general rule, the police will be understanding if you apologise, and explain that while you are technically breaking the rules, it's a family emergency.
If on the other hand, you tell them you've done nothing wrong, and demand to know why they stopped you, then you'll find them much less sympathetic.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
A higher incidence than it would have been if no relaxation had occurred. The entire point is to find a way of maximising our freedoms while minimising R. The Germans seem to be doing a good job of it so far, which can be encouraging. There are also certainly low hanging fruits where the affect on increasing R is minimal but the benefits socially and economically are far higher; they’re trying to find them.
If, at any point, incidence starts to actually increase, that’s worrying, because it could signal reimposition of restrictions. But the original premise (ie the germ theory of disease) is well established.
Took half-day off today, went for a walk through town and out onto the Heath. Lovely weather, blue skies, skylarks. Well worth the trip.
A lot of people out as well, despite it being 2pm on a Monday and most folk still having jobs to do. Based on what I've seen, I'd say that the 2m rule is still very much alive but people have well and truly had it with staying at home.
Not that they will necessarily be interested in the non-essential shops when they open back up, of course. I've been watching the news report about this. You can't make a day of it (you have to go round on your own, and there are still no cafes and restaurants to stop at for lunch.) You can't try on clothes. You're not meant to touch anything, so Lord alone knows how you're meant to rummage the rails and get a proper look at anything. You'll have to queue to get into anywhere you want to visit.
I reckon there'll be an initial dash by some shoppers, reflecting some pent-up demand and the novelty of stores being open again, but after one or two weekends trade will drop right back off. If you take practically all the advantages of physical retail away then why would people not stick to online?
It’s Tuesday!
Bad Day at Black Rook
My bad I doubt I'm the first person to have lost track of what day of the week it is during all of this.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Well exactly, and herein is the conundrum. If more contact equates to more cases, then we’d have seen a second spike last week. Remember the outrage over all those people fraternising in London parks in the April warm spell? We were assured it would trigger a second spike.
But it didn’t.
you could see Hancock and Co squirming as the public pointed out the gigantic fallacy they have created.
If lockdown made us safe, how could relaxing it be anything other than making life increasingly more dangerous?
The last two or three days on here have been utterly dull.
Instead of yakking on about some overpromoted twerp who went for a drive, and utterly pointless early-term opinion polls, can we discuss how to get out of lockdown?
Especially in London where new cases / deaths are at trace levels.
There are pubs to be opened, hotels to visit and places to go.
Get us out of this lockdown!
I'm not sure you can sling the accusation of dullness around since your every post appears to boil down to you wanting a pint. I can sympathise with the urge, but it's, well, not very interesting.
It's boiled down to:
"I want to go to the pub, therefore lockdown must be wrong because...
- There's not a problem - Sweden's done it fine - Some professor says it's all over and the maximum death toll will be under seven thousand - I'm all right Jack, pull the ladder up (what do you mean, under 60s might be reasonably likely to be so ill, they'll be hospitalised - no, they almost always recover so they're practically immune) - Oh, I'm just bored, open the pubs"
Really, that’s not the case.
Daft post.
Dude, that's the impression you give. You keep insisting that it's not a problem for under-sixties, despite the issue of them getting so ill they can be hospitalised (and the concerns about letting it rip overloading the hospitals).
Believe me, I want it over with. I have to explain again and again to a distressed severely autistic boy why he's not at school, why McDonalds is closed, why we have to be so careful when we're outside, why we can't go and see Nanna.
Again and again and again and again.
And Christ, I want to go to a restaurant with my family. We used to love eating out.
But 60,000+ people have died. The disease can really fuck people up, even younger ones (I know of a half-dozen people who've had it, and the one we're closest to is 26, ultra-fit, and no underlying health concerns - and took well over a month to be close to all right again. Albeit still with some breathing issues). And I would find it hard to live with myself if we got it and passed it on, and in the chain we passed it onto, someone died. Or multiple people died.
It's not about us, or our freedom, anymore than drink-driving should be up to ourselves to judge and take the risk (and we could note that cars are so much safer these days that if we get drunk and crash, the driver's far more likely to be okay).
We're getting there. Cases are well down, and if we get a reliable test-and-trace app, or a twenty-minute reliable self-contained test, we can get so much more going.
The worst thing to happen - after all this - is for us to face a second spike and need to lock down again. I really don't know how I'd be able to explain it to my son that sorry, after getting things sort of back to normal, we've got to go back to this.
I'm sure falling downstairs can really f8ck you up too, and many people are more likely to die of this than COVID.
Some one who chooses to fall downstairs and die is eligigible for the Darwin Award. Somone who ignores lockdown rules and dies from Covid19 is also eligible for the the Darwin Award. Good luck with your nomination attempt.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
To my thinking, you are not a policeman...
I am registered colourblind. Being a rozzer is one of many professions I am barred from. Probably no loss to the world of policing.
My understanding of what the police have been doing is this: going around and (rather heavy handedly) deterring people from socialising in the sun. I would be very surprised if they've been flagging down vehicles and slapping £30 fines on hapless parents taking their child somewhere with any essential purpose. All the more so if that parent was carrying the plague. But I suppose we'll see if I'm right or wrong.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Well exactly, and herein is the conundrum. If more contact equates to more cases, then we’d have seen a second spike last week. Remember the outrage over all those people fraternising in London parks in the April warm spell? We were assured it would trigger a second spike.
But it didn’t.
you could see Hancock and Co squirming as the public pointed out the gigantic fallacy they have created.
If lockdown made us safe, how could relaxing it be anything other than making life increasingly more dangerous?
Releasing lockdown is making life more dangerous, that is why it is being done in a measured way, in stages accross much of Europe, to make sure it doesn't get out of hand again.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Well exactly, and herein is the conundrum. If more contact equates to more cases, then we’d have seen a second spike last week. Remember the outrage over all those people fraternising in London parks in the April warm spell? We were assured it would trigger a second spike.
But it didn’t.
you could see Hancock and Co squirming as the public pointed out the gigantic fallacy they have created.
If lockdown made us safe, how could relaxing it be anything other than making life increasingly more dangerous?
Releasing lockdown is making life more dangerous, that is why it is being done in a measured way, in stages accross much of Europe, to make sure it doesn't get out of hand again.
Except here, where as of last Saturday the end is Cummings in a sudden rush.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
Alice Sarah Louise Cummings is listed as director of the company, but I don't know if she is related.
It's been widely rumoured online that she is related to him but the fact it's not been reported (in a reputable publication as opposed to blokes on Twitter) leads me to believe it's simply a coincidence of name.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
I wonder, though, if any have been fined for travelling from their primary address to a second home nearer to family with their child?
And I wonder if any of those has had symptoms at the time?
"Is Cummings a twat?" So I hear.
"Did he flout the rules?" I guess so.
"Should he be fined £100?" I'd make it £200, just in case.
"Should he lose his job?" What? Over a £200 civil penalty? What planet are you on?
Love the idea that the job of government as well as making up the law without the help of parliament (Virus Regs 2020) are allowed to interpret it as they go along, undermine it at will and decide by themselves to vary sentence and quash conviction. Move over Divisional Court and Court of Appeal (Criminal Division), the government is going to do it for you.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
Hmm I always assumed with the Gov't assuming emergency powers there was an "unspoken" requirement to err be well reasonable and fair in their operation.
I'd assumed (from far away) that police were mostly telling people to go home, rather than issuing fines - other than in the most egregious cases such as people hosting noisy house parties and pubs that wouldn't shut??
I think as a general rule, the police will be understanding if you apologise, and explain that while you are technically breaking the rules, it's a family emergency.
If on the other hand, you tell them you've done nothing wrong, and demand to know why they stopped you, then you'll find them much less sympathetic.
Yes - an apology goes a long way even if you don't mean it.
Cummings and Johnson could have exploited this fact. They could have been Hugh Grant with Robert Peston as Oprah Winfrey.
Too late now. They are chained together and doomed.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
I wonder, though, if any have been fined for travelling from their primary address to a second home nearer to family with their child?
And I wonder if any of those has had symptoms at the time?
"Is Cummings a twat?" So I hear.
"Did he flout the rules?" I guess so.
"Should he be fined £100?" I'd make it £200, just in case.
"Should he lose his job?" What? Over a £200 civil penalty? What planet are you on?
So Ferguson and Calderwood were wrong to resign?
Edit - if he is found to have committed three offences, as seems possible, the fine will be a lot higher than that.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
To my thinking, you are not a policeman...
To my thinking, 999 call handlers must be sick of taking calls from any busybodies that happen to be on furlough roll out of bed at 11am to report on their neighbours. We've all had good fun roleplaying being Stasi informants but that time will end.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
A higher incidence than it would have been if no relaxation had occurred. The entire point is to find a way of maximising our freedoms while minimising R. The Germans seem to be doing a good job of it so far, which can be encouraging. There are also certainly low hanging fruits where the affect on increasing R is minimal but the benefits socially and economically are far higher; they’re trying to find them.
If, at any point, incidence starts to actually increase, that’s worrying, because it could signal reimposition of restrictions. But the original premise (ie the germ theory of disease) is well established.
No sorry the imposition of a lockdown presupposes its effectivness. Otherwise it certainly would not have happened.
And the withdrawal of a lockdown, for those who support that lockdown, will mean the opposite effect (assuming Corona has not been eradicated).
Lockdowners fear a second spike precisely for this reason. Which makes you wonder why they are supporting any relaxation at all.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
No we on the left continue to support the party and do everything we can to beat the Tories
You and Rochdale clearly not capable of doing that for the last 5 years have a whiff of the Cummings hypocrisy about you and continue to be factional at every turn.
Interesting piece in the Times this morning about the test and trace capability in Germany, apologies if already discussed. Essentially consists of proven processes, low technology, managed by teams of decentralised, Public Health professionals who have worked together supplemented by public sector staff on secondment. As opposed to trying to invent something bespoke, unproven, using public sector IT procurement to stitch together inexperienced developers with centrally decreed requirements, manned by call centre staff answering anonymous adverts who arrive for training in advance if process or system. But at least it will be world class.
Germany appears to understand how to do public health (certainly in this instance). PHE / Hancock don't seem to.
I don't know whether already discussed on here, but recently heard that Dominic Cummings' sister has been appointed a director of IDox, the company awarded track and trace contract.
Alice Sarah Louise Cummings is listed as director of the company, but I don't know if she is related.
We established yeasterday she is the Sister
people would be very interested if there was a good source for this, thank you!
There's definitely a company called Idox PLC, that has a director called Alice Cummings who was appointed in April of this year.
Whether or not that company has received any government contracts, whether Ms Cummings has any active managerial role in that company, or whether she is related to Dominic Cummings, are all yet to be established.
Wasn't he Starmer's choice? Assume that he's a grown up, if so.
Yes, he was. He's seen as a serious manager type rather than a factionalist.
It also means that Starmer has managed very quickly to get a grip on the internal LP machine, both paid staff and elected posts (he has a majority on the NEC), which is no mean feat for those who know it well. Quite an achievement after less than eight weeks.
About as much use as the one that resulted in the CPS deciding that providing Ms Arcuri with free foreign jollies at the taxpayers expense and her business with free public money despite having moved back to the USA was all above board.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
I wonder, though, if any have been fined for travelling from their primary address to a second home nearer to family with their child?
And I wonder if any of those has had symptoms at the time?
"Is Cummings a twat?" So I hear.
"Did he flout the rules?" I guess so.
"Should he be fined £100?" I'd make it £200, just in case.
"Should he lose his job?" What? Over a £200 civil penalty? What planet are you on?
That is a rather silly remark.
There are people on here who say Cummings didn't break the rules. But I don't think many are seriously suggesting that, if he did, he should not resign or be sacked (as have others in a prominent position who have breached the rules).
I think even the vast majority of his defenders would accept that it's really important that figures involved in setting the approach on this crisis don't undermine rules intended to protect public health by breaking the rules, as this clearly makes it much more difficult to secure compliance by the public to the rules and guidance as they develop.
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
To my thinking, you are not a policeman...
To my thinking, 999 call handlers must be sick of taking calls from any busybodies that happen to be on furlough roll out of bed at 11am to report on their neighbours. We've all had good fun roleplaying being Stasi informants but that time will end.
Of course, the Stasi informants were the first against the wall when the revolution came....
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
I will be genuinely surprised if there are any people who've been fined for travelling to arrange emergency childcare. To my thinking, the police would just wave you on.
To my thinking, you are not a policeman...
I am registered colourblind. Being a rozzer is one of many professions I am barred from. Probably no loss to the world of policing.
My understanding of what the police have been doing is this: going around and (rather heavy handedly) deterring people from socialising in the sun. I would be very surprised if they've been flagging down vehicles and slapping £30 fines on hapless parents taking their child somewhere with any essential purpose. All the more so if that parent was carrying the plague. But I suppose we'll see if I'm right or wrong.
You have to register as colourblind?? When did that start? My brother is colour blind but he never registered. It never seemed to interfere with his flying either...
Love the idea that the job of government as well as making up the law without the help of parliament (Virus Regs 2020) are allowed to interpret it as they go along, undermine it at will and decide by themselves to vary sentence and quash conviction. Move over Divisional Court and Court of Appeal (Criminal Division), the government is going to do it for you.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
Hmm I always assumed with the Gov't assuming emergency powers there was an "unspoken" requirement to err be well reasonable and fair in their operation.
I'd assumed (from far away) that police were mostly telling people to go home, rather than issuing fines - other than in the most egregious cases such as people hosting noisy house parties and pubs that wouldn't shut??
I think that's right. Egregious cases like people breaching lockdown three or four times in succession.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
A higher incidence than it would have been if no relaxation had occurred. The entire point is to find a way of maximising our freedoms while minimising R. The Germans seem to be doing a good job of it so far, which can be encouraging. There are also certainly low hanging fruits where the affect on increasing R is minimal but the benefits socially and economically are far higher; they’re trying to find them.
If, at any point, incidence starts to actually increase, that’s worrying, because it could signal reimposition of restrictions. But the original premise (ie the germ theory of disease) is well established.
No sorry the imposition of a lockdown presupposes its effectivness. Otherwise it certainly would not have happened.
And the withdrawal of a lockdown, for those who support that lockdown, will mean the opposite effect (assuming Corona has not been eradicated).
Lockdowners fear a second spike precisely for this reason. Which makes you wonder why they are supporting any relaxation at all.
Semmelweiss found massive resistance to the germ theory, because it was extremely inconvenient to the doctors of the time. They could come up with all sorts of handwavy excuses.
You’ve had the mechanics of infectivity and restrictions explained to you time and again, as well as the economics of pandemics and lockdowns, including links to both the theory and evidence behind them and to the overwhelming economist views.
Yet you continue to ignore them and repeat your already-debunked stuff again and again. I can only conclude that your simply an anonymous internet troll of the worst kind.
It's been established transmission outdoors is rare. That comes from the information gathering and analysing process we've had to go through. Outdoors is pretty safe so outdoor activities (garden centres, car showrooms and the like) can re-start.
Transmission is much more likely to occur indoors in confined spaces. That may well mean summer will be a quiet time as we are more often out and about but what happens when the autumn chill comes and we all dash indoors again?
Dunno. Maybe.
But... Even in countries where is is autumn now there is no evidence of a second peak as far as I can see. Puzzling.
Time to be a tedious pedant - countries wholly south of the Equator:
Entirely: Papua New Guinea, Australia, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Tonga, Niue (If you count it as its own country), Cook Islands, Angola, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa, Zambia, Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina.
As an aside, Angola has 69 cases but some of those countries would still have equatorial climates if they are technically in winter.
Apart from Antarctica, there's not a lot of land south of the 50th Parallel (south) so the comparison with the northern hemisphere isn't wholly valid.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Well exactly, and herein is the conundrum. If more contact equates to more cases, then we’d have seen a second spike last week. Remember the outrage over all those people fraternising in London parks in the April warm spell? We were assured it would trigger a second spike.
But it didn’t.
A lot of medics are still frightened that the second wave will come as lockdown continues to be eased. Others insist that it will come in the Winter. The truth is, this is a new disease, and I know this is a statement of Coronaheresy, BUT... they're all just guessing, aren't they? Some of them might be right, but then again the scientists who claim that the worst of the disease is past and that there will never be a second wave might also be right. We don't know.
As you say, all we do know right now is there have been a series of panics over the London parks, people flocking to seaside resorts, the effects of relaxing the exercise rules and so on, and none of these has yet triggered the initiation of the dreaded second wave. Little or no evidence has thus far been presented of a trade-off between relaxation of restrictions and R, and the hospital admissions and the deaths have continued to decline regardless of what actions have been taken to date.
Infections might still take off again when we reach some critical threshold - perhaps if and when the 2m rule is replaced by a 1m rule, or when the restaurants are allowed to trade, or when there's a mass return of kids to school. But there's no sign of it yet.
Well... some places are seeing spikes as coronavirus restrictions are eased, and some are not.
Being simplistic, it seems the trick is to minimise high risk indoor environments - and if you do have to be in them, then wear a mask.
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
The big drop in approval for Johnson and the government in the Sevanta poll happened following the "Stay Alert" fiasco. The Cummings affair has only reinforced a negative trend and doesn't seem a game changer in itself. My suspicion is that a general awareness of a government not in control of events is playing out rather than a particular outrage.
The logic driving lockdown is that is prevents the spread of Corona and reduces its incidence. It follows, therefore, that a relaxation of lockdown will result in more Corona. and more incidence.
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Only if the relaxation reverts the situation back to status quo ante. Not sure that's exactly happening.
Well if that's not happening then the relationship between lockdown and Corona simply cannot be what its proponents claim. Otherwise partial reversions to status quo will occur as relaxations are stepped up. IE the second peak
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
OK so why are we re-opening if that is the relationship between the virus and lockdown?
From someone who's been yelling at the top of his/her voice about a hundred times a day that we should come out of lockdown, that's a remarkably moronic question.
Didn’t both South Korea and Hokkaido have second peaks after relaxation that they had to jump on again as well?
S Korea had fun tracking down a bazillion contacts of a potential superspreader, but actual number of proven cases barely bumped - went from 5 to 35 or thereabouts per day.
Comments
Matt Hancock did not say the words you heard him say.
Just how fucking stupid are these people?
https://twitter.com/Suffragentleman/status/1265307612406591490?s=20
So relaxations actually confront the original premise. They are always going to look awkward
Did you hear who Dominic Cummings bumped into in Specsavers?
Everyone.
THis article made sense at the time, but it looks like positively prophetic in hindsight:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2018/03/11/three-reasons-why-jennie-formby-should-not-become-general-secretary-of-the-labour-party/
Evans has a lot of work to do.
That's pretty much how they run it in North Korea.
And how many lives might it have cost ?
As with every Bank Holiday (or post Bank Holiday period) the plethora of figures thrown at us (with accompanying lines on graphs from HMG and academics) need a little time to sink in.
Back over 2,000 cases concerns me - I'd like to see us heading down to 1,000 or lower. While the daily "death toll" continues to decline, the fact remains at least 55,000 people have perished from this dreadful virus to date.
I've said before I'd like us to be sub 100 deaths daily and sub 1000 new cases daily and they should be the objective before further easing of lockdown restrictions. To be fair, while most people seem to think the re-opening of non-essential retail is a done deal, I do believe it is "contingent on further progress in reducing the virus".
Once again, plenty of confusion as to what is included in "non essential retail" and what isn't. Betting shops are apparently included so we should remember it's our "civic duty" to go out and spend money gambling on Ascot if we've anything left over from the new car we have to buy next week.
It will be interesting to see how and indeed if smaller shops will try to enforce social distancing and whether there will be any kind of attempt at enforcement - would a local council close a shop if it wasn't complying with guidelines?
We also still have the thorny issue of school re-opening next week and the battle lines between the Government, their media supporters and the anti-lockdwon brigade on one side and Local Councils, some schools, teachers' unions and Labour on the other.
If I were a political cynic, I'd argue this is a battle the Government will be looking forward to as it seeks to regain confidence.
That is the logic of what we have been told and it is still what many on here adhere to,
Only to speak with the Treasury about it and report back at the daily news briefing podium about whether it was able to reverse the fines
But it didn’t.
A lot of people out as well, despite it being 2pm on a Monday and most folk still having jobs to do. Based on what I've seen, I'd say that the 2m rule is still very much alive but people have well and truly had it with staying at home.
Not that they will necessarily be interested in the non-essential shops when they open back up, of course. I've been watching the news report about this. You can't make a day of it (you have to go round on your own, and there are still no cafes and restaurants to stop at for lunch.) You can't try on clothes. You're not meant to touch anything, so Lord alone knows how you're meant to rummage the rails and get a proper look at anything. You'll have to queue to get into anywhere you want to visit.
I reckon there'll be an initial dash by some shoppers, reflecting some pent-up demand and the novelty of stores being open again, but after one or two weekends trade will drop right back off. If you take practically all the advantages of physical retail away then why would people not stick to online?
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1265332001948798976?s=20
Transmission is much more likely to occur indoors in confined spaces. That may well mean summer will be a quiet time as we are more often out and about but what happens when the autumn chill comes and we all dash indoors again?
Oh Aaron
But... Even in countries where is is autumn now there is no evidence of a second peak as far as I can see. Puzzling.
The point is neither is a known racist.
@MattHancock
·
22h
Good news:
Because we have flattened the curve and protected the NHS, we can start to open up retail - with strong social distancing in place:
Outdoor retail from 1 June
Other retail from 15 June
Allow Government advisors to do what the hell they like from 30 March 2020
Alice Sarah Louise Cummings is listed as director of the company, but I don't know if she is related.
And I wonder if any of those has had symptoms at the time?
They’ll be talking about winning elections instead of arguments next.
As you say, all we do know right now is there have been a series of panics over the London parks, people flocking to seaside resorts, the effects of relaxing the exercise rules and so on, and none of these has yet triggered the initiation of the dreaded second wave. Little or no evidence has thus far been presented of a trade-off between relaxation of restrictions and R, and the hospital admissions and the deaths have continued to decline regardless of what actions have been taken to date.
Infections might still take off again when we reach some critical threshold - perhaps if and when the 2m rule is replaced by a 1m rule, or when the restaurants are allowed to trade, or when there's a mass return of kids to school. But there's no sign of it yet.
Probably the first part of that would concern you
*innocent face*
Or perhaps he's just trolling?
If on the other hand, you tell them you've done nothing wrong, and demand to know why they stopped you, then you'll find them much less sympathetic.
The entire point is to find a way of maximising our freedoms while minimising R.
The Germans seem to be doing a good job of it so far, which can be encouraging. There are also certainly low hanging fruits where the affect on increasing R is minimal but the benefits socially and economically are far higher; they’re trying to find them.
If, at any point, incidence starts to actually increase, that’s worrying, because it could signal reimposition of restrictions. But the original premise (ie the germ theory of disease) is well established.
https://labourlist.org/2020/05/david-evans-named-labours-new-general-secretary/
If lockdown made us safe, how could relaxing it be anything other than making life increasingly more dangerous?
My understanding of what the police have been doing is this: going around and (rather heavy handedly) deterring people from socialising in the sun. I would be very surprised if they've been flagging down vehicles and slapping £30 fines on hapless parents taking their child somewhere with any essential purpose. All the more so if that parent was carrying the plague. But I suppose we'll see if I'm right or wrong.
"Did he flout the rules?" I guess so.
"Should he be fined £100?" I'd make it £200, just in case.
"Should he lose his job?" What? Over a £200 civil penalty? What planet are you on?
Cummings and Johnson could have exploited this fact. They could have been Hugh Grant with Robert Peston as Oprah Winfrey.
Too late now. They are chained together and doomed.
Edit - if he is found to have committed three offences, as seems possible, the fine will be a lot higher than that.
And the withdrawal of a lockdown, for those who support that lockdown, will mean the opposite effect (assuming Corona has not been eradicated).
Lockdowners fear a second spike precisely for this reason. Which makes you wonder why they are supporting any relaxation at all.
Georgia reopened at the start of the month.
They have a second peak.
You and Rochdale clearly not capable of doing that for the last 5 years have a whiff of the Cummings hypocrisy about you and continue to be factional at every turn.
Whether or not that company has received any government contracts, whether Ms Cummings has any active managerial role in that company, or whether she is related to Dominic Cummings, are all yet to be established.
There are people on here who say Cummings didn't break the rules. But I don't think many are seriously suggesting that, if he did, he should not resign or be sacked (as have others in a prominent position who have breached the rules).
I think even the vast majority of his defenders would accept that it's really important that figures involved in setting the approach on this crisis don't undermine rules intended to protect public health by breaking the rules, as this clearly makes it much more difficult to secure compliance by the public to the rules and guidance as they develop.
all we are doing is kicking the second peak can down the road, if you are right.
The poll shows the Tories lead has still fallen but they still have a clear lead.
If that lead has fallen again next weekend then there is more of a problem
You’ve had the mechanics of infectivity and restrictions explained to you time and again, as well as the economics of pandemics and lockdowns, including links to both the theory and evidence behind them and to the overwhelming economist views.
Yet you continue to ignore them and repeat your already-debunked stuff again and again. I can only conclude that your simply an anonymous internet troll of the worst kind.
Entirely: Papua New Guinea, Australia, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Tonga, Niue (If you count it as its own country), Cook Islands, Angola, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa, Zambia, Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina.
As an aside, Angola has 69 cases but some of those countries would still have equatorial climates if they are technically in winter.
Apart from Antarctica, there's not a lot of land south of the 50th Parallel (south) so the comparison with the northern hemisphere isn't wholly valid.
Being simplistic, it seems the trick is to minimise high risk indoor environments - and if you do have to be in them, then wear a mask.
PP/Betfair 13/8 go, 4/9 stay
Ladrokes 7/4 go, 2/5 stay
Starsports 5/2 go, 2/7 stay
Ladbrokes have now moved their prices away from Starsports and towards PP/Bf.