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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    Bring back to Holy Roman Empire?

    What for?

    It wasn't Holy, it wasn't Roman and it wasn't and Empire.

    Boom 'tish
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, I'm not persuaded (but then I have a habit of not being persuaded by Mike's long-odds bets which turn out to be better than I thought, so buyer beware and all that).

    Firstly, Scotland needs to vote No, which it probably will but it's still an uncertainty. Similarly, any vacancy in the Lib Dem leadership pre-September is going to be very difficult for a Scot to fill if the referendum looks tight (or Yes), which is likely to remain the case.

    Secondly, Alexander is surely too much on the Cleggite wing to win back the Red Liberals that they so desperately need to. I agree with Mike that Farron would stand a better chance after the election but he'd still be better placed to my mind beforehand.

    However, Cable would be better placed still to stand in as a temporary leader to see them through the election. Cable hasn't set the world alight at his department but nor has he done badly. Against a tough electoral backdrop, he'd be a safe pair of hands, which isn't necessarily the case for the younger generation. Young cardinals can happily vote for old popes. Were there to be a vacancy, would the Lib Dems want a potentially divisive leadership election a few months before the election, pitting coalitionistas against oppositionists? Or is it better to defer the thing until afterwards and unify round the elder statesman in the meantime?

    And then there's Alexander's own abilities. As a minister, he's been very effective; one of the Lib Dems' best. As a media performer, he's still a bit lightweight.

    25/1? I don't think so. As Mike says, the chances of a vacancy aren't high and if there is one, Alexander just has too many negatives. I wouldn't be backing south of 66/1.

    He is a fanny and hopefully will be dumped by a large margin , has more faces than the town clock.
    David - I still remember when you rubbished my 33/1 tip on George Galloway.

    Anybody can tip odds on favourites. I go for long-shots, announce it advance and my record is pretty good. You can have a lot of losers if a 25/1 shot comes in.
    Very true Mike , but there is a real good chance he will not make it either via YES vote or getting dumped next year as Lib Dems are not exactly very popular in Scotland at present. Far too many hurdles to make 25/1 a good bet.
    Malcolm, the bet is for leadership at GE 2015 - so, strictly speaking, getting dumped is not in itself going to make a difference. However, any perceived likelihood of getting dumped would certainly have an effect.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SeanT's sporadic switch from rabid Europhobe to romantic Europhile is one of PB's finest pleasures.

    Sante!
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Speedy said:

    But will Danny Alexander win his seat?

    Not according to Martin Baxter:

    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey - Chance of winning

    SNP 52%
    LD 21%
    Con 13%
    Lab 13%
    oth 1%

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    The speculations of PB atheists as to the nature of God are intriguingly similar to the speculations of pb English Tories about Scottish politics.

    A sort of arrogant loftiness, hiding deep existential anxiety, masked with flailing certitude.

    Sean, I have written a blog.. would you be so kind as to have a look and give me some pointers before I publish it please?
    Surely:

    tomknoxbooks@gmail.com
    Cheers!

    Have sent it.. Reading your comments today you may not agree with the content!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    JBriskin said:

    SouthernObeserver - I think it's quite impressive you can tell the difference, I must say I can't, but it's a Cosmopolitan Conspiracy and I'm not proud of it (not being able to tell the difference).

    They are just incredibly different to my ear - Cantonese is much more loose jawed. And the Beijing accent is just totally unmissable because of that r noise. I imagine English people would find Mandarin much easier to pronounce than Cantonese.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Charles said:



    Bring back to Holy Roman Empire?

    What for?

    It wasn't Holy, it wasn't Roman and it wasn't and Empire.

    Boom 'tish
    Well the EU is not a Union and it's not European, it's German. Same results here.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    SeanT said:



    This is nonsense twice over.


    1. Europe was united under the Romans, during which time humanity made more advances than ever before or since - until the Renaissance.

    2. Europe's division into competitive nations made sense when Europe was basically the only part of the world on the march. We were all divvying up the world and industrialising, no one else was in the tournament, we all shared the spoils.

    But now Europe faces fierce and menacing competition from continent-sized rivals: USA, China. India, and, in time, Brazil and Indonesia. Now we need economies of scale to fend off the competition.

    Put it another way, I don't see many Americans trying to divide the nation into 50 competing states, so they can all take on China individually. Do you?

    1.Europe was certainly not united under the Roman Empire. The majority of what we now consider 'Europe' was not within the Roman Empire and the Empire itself extended far beyond the bounds of what could even loosely be called Europe.

    2.Europe's failure to compete with the rest of the world will not change whether we are a single state or many separate ones. Europe's failings have little or nothing to do with 'unity' and everything to do with being a tired under resourced continent whose population holds life style expectations that far exceed the ability of our GDP to continue to deliver.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Today's Survation poll had the LDs on 5% for (scottish) Westminster VI, losing 75% of their scottish 2010 vote. Is it certain that Mr Alexander will be re-elected in 2015?

    This was the Survation Holyrood voting intention:

    Scottish parliament - constituency vote
    SNP 44% (-1)
    Lab 32% (n/c)
    Con 15% (+2)
    LD 5% (-1)

    The SLDs look like toast.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    JBriskin said:

    "Mandarin and Cantonese are pretty similar."

    They are mutually unintelligible - at least that is what the Cantonese-speaking members of staff in our HK office told me. I can't understand either of them.

    Yes - but they're clearly both chinese, I doubt you could tell the difference if someone started speaking to you in either language.

    I can tell the difference. Cantonese is like people with marbles in their mouths. Mandarin is much crisper. I can even tell a Beijing accent - lots of r noises. I believe there are more tones in Cantonese.

    Italian, Spanish, French, Catalan etc are all similar, but they are separate languages.



    Doncaster Bet?

    How about, if we can agree on a level, the bet is that if UKIP exceed it you have to change your avatar to Arsenal winning the league at White Hart Lane and if they dont I will change mine to something of your choice for a month?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Charles said:



    Bring back to Holy Roman Empire?

    What for?

    It wasn't Holy, it wasn't Roman and it wasn't and Empire.

    Boom 'tish
    This quote is always repeated but is clearly not true. It was very definitely an Empire, ruling over various German, Italian and Slavic peoples. "Holy" means "consecrated" in this context, which the HRE was on a regular basis by the Pope. "Roman" is more of a stretch, but it did have the Roman Church underpin its ideological basis.

  • Paddy just allowed me the princely sum of £1.63 at the surprisingly unaltered odds of 25/1.
    I can't say I fancy this bet much, but were Nick to fall under the proverbial then Danny Boy would certainly be a front runner, especially with his enhanced reputation after 4 years at the Treasury (for the same reason, Osborne's current odds to succeed Cameron are hugely overstated imho).

    I don't suppose Clegg is relishing next year's GE with his party set to lose up to half their seats and therefore perhaps he wouldn't take too much persuading to take up another, probably European role beforehand.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    isam said:

    JBriskin said:

    "Mandarin and Cantonese are pretty similar."

    They are mutually unintelligible - at least that is what the Cantonese-speaking members of staff in our HK office told me. I can't understand either of them.

    Yes - but they're clearly both chinese, I doubt you could tell the difference if someone started speaking to you in either language.

    I can tell the difference. Cantonese is like people with marbles in their mouths. Mandarin is much crisper. I can even tell a Beijing accent - lots of r noises. I believe there are more tones in Cantonese.

    Italian, Spanish, French, Catalan etc are all similar, but they are separate languages.



    Doncaster Bet?

    How about, if we can agree on a level, the bet is that if UKIP exceed it you have to change your avatar to Arsenal winning the league at White Hart Lane and if they dont I will change mine to something of your choice for a month?

    I have no idea what UKIP will get in Doncaster. I am prepared to bet, though, that the Labour vote share will rise to above 50%.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    Not sure if this has been referenced already. EU plots to topple elected national leaders. Why am I not surprised. I wonder if they will try similar tricks on the UK if it looks like we might leave?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027284/eu-officials-plotted-imf-attack-to-bring-rebellious-italy-to-its-knees/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    There wouldn't have been an Industrial Revolution or Universal Suffrage or and end to slavery if europe was united, just like the Space Race, Civil Rights and Social Security wouldn't have happened if the cold war didn't occur. Competition is the prime driver of innovation and social progress in nature, in individuals and in nations.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I just started watching Game of Thrones. I've only seen part of the first episode but it is almost like they dropped a bunch of Yorkshiremen in the Scottish Highlands and said "Action!".
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Five Middlesbrough councillors resign from Labour Party and will stand as independents

    ": Cllr Junier said in his resignation letter: “I can no longer sit back and watch our fractured group implode through lack of direction, lack of leadership and more importantly lack of Labour values”;

    :: Cllr Pervaz Khan said he felt “ashamed” for belonging to Middlesbrough Labour Group which “is treating some of my Asian family and friends in a manner which they perceive to be racist and, incidentally, so do I”;

    :: Cllr Sajaad Khan also criticised the current Labour leadership saying it was “different under Sir Stuart Bell, who would not have stood for all this”;"

    http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/five-middlesbrough-councillors-resign-labour-7080454
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The European thing might work better if it has happened much more slowly, allowing people to first get used to the single market, then some of the political stuff, then joining the currency much more gradually, etc etc etc. These things take time.

    Politicians forced through changes, I guess with an eye to their own place in history, and their own personal power.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2014

    Not sure if this has been referenced already. EU plots to topple elected national leaders. Why am I not surprised. I wonder if they will try similar tricks on the UK if it looks like we might leave?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027284/eu-officials-plotted-imf-attack-to-bring-rebellious-italy-to-its-knees/

    Thatcher 1990?
    Was Howe a european plant?
    If Thatcher had stayed on till 1992 the EU might have never existed, it was a creation of the moment of the end of the cold war
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2014

    I see SeanT is going through one of his europhiles phases again. I sympathise with the plight of Ukraine , love holidaying in France, enjoy Eurovision and have a Bulgarian wife.

    None of that means I want political union with the EU. If there are countries that share our interests in international affairs - great. We can ally with them in accordance with other interests on a case-by-case basis. I see no need to farm that out to an EU superstate. Nor would I want to.

    I also don't think the UK is 'someone else'. We are likely to be the most populous nation in Europe in 30 years time,we're in the top 10 countries for population (or thereabouts) and easily a top 5-7 economy. Plus we have the worlds language, and immense cultural heritage and contemporary soft power.

    I'm more than comfortable with Britain being a sustainable independent country on those figures, even in the very long-term.

    With regard to the EU SeanT goes up and down like a yoyo. This time last year he was a leading eurosceptic, seeing Grexits and Cyprexits every week. The news today about how there was a plot to oust Berlusconi should give the lie that the EU is is something to be admired and emulated:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/14/us-italy-berlusconi-idUSBREA4D07320140514
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    taffys said:

    The European thing might work better if it has happened much more slowly, allowing people to first get used to the single market, then some of the political stuff, then joining the currency much more gradually, etc etc etc. These things take time.

    Politicians forced through changes, I guess with an eye to their own place in history, and their own personal power.

    in a nutshell
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    JBriskin said:

    "Mandarin and Cantonese are pretty similar."

    They are mutually unintelligible - at least that is what the Cantonese-speaking members of staff in our HK office told me. I can't understand either of them.

    Yes - but they're clearly both chinese, I doubt you could tell the difference if someone started speaking to you in either language.

    I can tell the difference. Cantonese is like people with marbles in their mouths. Mandarin is much crisper. I can even tell a Beijing accent - lots of r noises. I believe there are more tones in Cantonese.

    Italian, Spanish, French, Catalan etc are all similar, but they are separate languages.



    Doncaster Bet?

    How about, if we can agree on a level, the bet is that if UKIP exceed it you have to change your avatar to Arsenal winning the league at White Hart Lane and if they dont I will change mine to something of your choice for a month?

    I have no idea what UKIP will get in Doncaster. I am prepared to bet, though, that the Labour vote share will rise to above 50%.

    Oh I meant at the locals next week
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Speedy said:

    There wouldn't have been an Industrial Revolution or Universal Suffrage or and end to slavery if europe was united, just like the Space Race, Civil Rights and Social Security wouldn't have happened if the cold war didn't occur. Competition is the prime driver of innovation and social progress in nature, in individuals and in nations.

    Like Kingsley Amis's 'Alteration' and Keith Roberts 'Pavane'?

  • Speedy said:

    But will Danny Alexander win his seat?

    Not according to Martin Baxter:

    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey - Chance of winning

    SNP 52%
    LD 21%
    Con 13%
    Lab 13%
    oth 1%

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
    If Baxter's right, then Ladbrokes' 4/1 odds against the SNP winning are very, very generous.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Socrates said:

    Charles said:



    Bring back to Holy Roman Empire?

    What for?

    It wasn't Holy, it wasn't Roman and it wasn't and Empire.

    Boom 'tish
    This quote is always repeated but is clearly not true. It was very definitely an Empire, ruling over various German, Italian and Slavic peoples. "Holy" means "consecrated" in this context, which the HRE was on a regular basis by the Pope. "Roman" is more of a stretch, but it did have the Roman Church underpin its ideological basis.

    It is outside of my period (I focus on the long 19th century).

    However, by the time it was best known - and I am focusing on the later period rather than the initial foundation under Barbaross - it was by no means a unitary state: it was a combination of the Habsburg family holding plus various Germanic states that technically had Electors but effectively were cowed by their more powerful cousins.

    The "Roman" element came from Barbarossa's power play - he forced Pope Adrian into recognising him as King of Italy (and Roman Emperor) as a way to try and consolidate his power in Lombardy. In reality - and certainly in later years - all the money and authority came from the Kingdom of Burgundy though. Rome was never really part of the remit of the Empire.

    "Holy" was just a term that Barbarossa liked, so started calling his lands that.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Speedy said:

    But will Danny Alexander win his seat?

    Not according to Martin Baxter:

    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey - Chance of winning

    SNP 52%
    LD 21%
    Con 13%
    Lab 13%
    oth 1%

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
    If Baxter's right, then Ladbrokes' 4/1 odds against the SNP winning are very, very generous.
    I've been pointing that out for weeks.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    isam said:

    isam said:

    JBriskin said:

    "Mandarin and Cantonese are pretty similar."

    They are mutually unintelligible - at least that is what the Cantonese-speaking members of staff in our HK office told me. I can't understand either of them.

    Yes - but they're clearly both chinese, I doubt you could tell the difference if someone started speaking to you in either language.

    I can tell the difference. Cantonese is like people with marbles in their mouths. Mandarin is much crisper. I can even tell a Beijing accent - lots of r noises. I believe there are more tones in Cantonese.

    Italian, Spanish, French, Catalan etc are all similar, but they are separate languages.



    Doncaster Bet?

    How about, if we can agree on a level, the bet is that if UKIP exceed it you have to change your avatar to Arsenal winning the league at White Hart Lane and if they dont I will change mine to something of your choice for a month?

    I have no idea what UKIP will get in Doncaster. I am prepared to bet, though, that the Labour vote share will rise to above 50%.

    Oh I meant at the locals next week

    I really have no idea at all. I am sure UKIP will do better than they did last time. By how much I can't say, though.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Not sure if this has been referenced already. EU plots to topple elected national leaders. Why am I not surprised. I wonder if they will try similar tricks on the UK if it looks like we might leave?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027284/eu-officials-plotted-imf-attack-to-bring-rebellious-italy-to-its-knees/

    Well, their intervention in the Scottish referendum debate was hardly subtle, was it? They clearly think that it is their job to dictate.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    Not sure if this has been referenced already. EU plots to topple elected national leaders. Why am I not surprised. I wonder if they will try similar tricks on the UK if it looks like we might leave?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027284/eu-officials-plotted-imf-attack-to-bring-rebellious-italy-to-its-knees/

    Thatcher 1990?
    Was Howe a european plant?
    If Thatcher had stayed on till 1992 the EU might have never existed, it was a creation of the moment of the end of the cold war
    Yup ! The EU invented the Poll Tax.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Interesting (to me anyway) historical what if.

    What the Romans were good at was organizing. They got almost all their ideas from others: social and political structure from the Etruscans, military tactics from the Samnites, armour and weapons from the Iberians, Gauls and Celts etc. Nothing wrong with that - copying the best from neighbouring peoples and combining it - very sensible.

    Anyway that composite effect led to them outclassing all their neighbours and expanding beyond the point a republic could handle (bit like the US imo) and so had a choice between going Imperial and autocratic or retreating back to a size that could stay as a republic.

    Say for the sake of argument they had chosen the 2nd option and retreated back to Italy and Sicily plus all the best ports around the med and a big fleet controlling all the trade. I wonder if they'd still be around?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Charles

    I don't see why the Holy Roman Empire is any more well known for its time in the 18th century than it was for its time in the 12th century, when it was the most powerful country in Europe.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JBriskin said:

    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.

    Without wanting to give away any spoilers, the third season is pretty spectacular.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380



    Well, their intervention in the Scottish referendum debate was hardly subtle, was it? .

    It was explicit. Scots know when they're being told something. You can post odds all day it's gonna be No.
  • Stephen Fisher's 2015 GE updated seats projection tomorrow could be interesting.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    JBriskin said:

    "Mandarin and Cantonese are pretty similar."

    They are mutually unintelligible - at least that is what the Cantonese-speaking members of staff in our HK office told me. I can't understand either of them.

    Yes - but they're clearly both chinese, I doubt you could tell the difference if someone started speaking to you in either language.

    I can tell the difference. Cantonese is like people with marbles in their mouths. Mandarin is much crisper. I can even tell a Beijing accent - lots of r noises. I believe there are more tones in Cantonese.

    Italian, Spanish, French, Catalan etc are all similar, but they are separate languages.



    Doncaster Bet?

    How about, if we can agree on a level, the bet is that if UKIP exceed it you have to change your avatar to Arsenal winning the league at White Hart Lane and if they dont I will change mine to something of your choice for a month?

    I have no idea what UKIP will get in Doncaster. I am prepared to bet, though, that the Labour vote share will rise to above 50%.

    Oh I meant at the locals next week

    I really have no idea at all. I am sure UKIP will do better than they did last time. By how much I can't say, though.

    Oh ok lets forget about it and call it a watching brief
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, I'm not persuaded (but then I have a habit of not being persuaded by Mike's long-odds bets which turn out to be better than I thought, so buyer beware and all that).

    Firstly, Scotland needs to vote No, which it probably will but it's still an uncertainty. Similarly, any vacancy in the Lib Dem leadership pre-September is going to be very difficult for a Scot to fill if the referendum looks tight (or Yes), which is likely to remain the case.

    Secondly, Alexander is surely too much on the Cleggite wing to win back the Red Liberals that they so desperately need to. I agree with Mike that Farron would stand a better chance after the election but he'd still be better placed to my mind beforehand.

    However, Cable would be better placed still to stand in as a temporary leader to see them through the election. Cable hasn't set the world alight at his department but nor has he done badly. Against a tough electoral backdrop, he'd be a safe pair of hands, which isn't necessarily the case for the younger generation. Young cardinals can happily vote for old popes. Were there to be a vacancy, would the Lib Dems want a potentially divisive leadership election a few months before the election, pitting coalitionistas against oppositionists? Or is it better to defer the thing until afterwards and unify round the elder statesman in the meantime?

    And then there's Alexander's own abilities. As a minister, he's been very effective; one of the Lib Dems' best. As a media performer, he's still a bit lightweight.

    25/1? I don't think so. As Mike says, the chances of a vacancy aren't high and if there is one, Alexander just has too many negatives. I wouldn't be backing south of 66/1.

    He is a fanny and hopefully will be dumped by a large margin , has more faces than the town clock.
    David - I still remember when you rubbished my 33/1 tip on George Galloway.

    Anybody can tip odds on favourites. I go for long-shots, announce it advance and my record is pretty good. You can have a lot of losers if a 25/1 shot comes in.
    Very true Mike , but there is a real good chance he will not make it either via YES vote or getting dumped next year as Lib Dems are not exactly very popular in Scotland at present. Far too many hurdles to make 25/1 a good bet.
    SLD chumps have always been a Mike Smithson weakness. He is a big Rennie and Carmichael fan for example.

    On the other hand, he thinks that the only truly popular SLD - Charlie Kennedy - is a useless plonker.

    Mike is a contrarian.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Stephen Fisher's 2015 GE updated seats projection tomorrow could be interesting.

    What's so interesting ? He will be coming closer and closer to the current polls and in 2015 his siidekicks will say what a Sage he is [ was ].
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Socrates said:

    JBriskin said:

    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.

    Without wanting to give away any spoilers, the third season is pretty spectacular.
    Read the books and let your imagination soar. So much better than the HOB TV spectacular, however good the individual episodes are.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, I'm not persuaded (but then I have a habit of not being persuaded by Mike's long-odds bets which turn out to be better than I thought, so buyer beware and all that).

    Firstly, Scotland needs to vote No, which it probably will but it's still an uncertainty. Similarly, any vacancy in the Lib Dem leadership pre-September is going to be very difficult for a Scot to fill if the referendum looks tight (or Yes), which is likely to remain the case.

    Secondly, Alexander is surely too much on the Cleggite wing to win back the Red Liberals that they so desperately need to. I agree with Mike that Farron would stand a better chance after the election but he'd still be better placed to my mind beforehand.

    However, Cable would be better placed still to stand in as a temporary leader to see them through the election. Cable hasn't set the world alight at his department but nor has he done badly. Against a tough electoral backdrop, he'd be a safe pair of hands, which isn't necessarily the case for the younger generation. Young cardinals can happily vote for old popes. Were there to be a vacancy, would the Lib Dems want a potentially divisive leadership election a few months before the election, pitting coalitionistas against oppositionists? Or is it better to defer the thing until afterwards and unify round the elder statesman in the meantime?

    And then there's Alexander's own abilities. As a minister, he's been very effective; one of the Lib Dems' best. As a media performer, he's still a bit lightweight.

    25/1? I don't think so. As Mike says, the chances of a vacancy aren't high and if there is one, Alexander just has too many negatives. I wouldn't be backing south of 66/1.

    He is a fanny and hopefully will be dumped by a large margin , has more faces than the town clock.
    David - I still remember when you rubbished my 33/1 tip on George Galloway.

    Anybody can tip odds on favourites. I go for long-shots, announce it advance and my record is pretty good. You can have a lot of losers if a 25/1 shot comes in.
    Very true Mike , but there is a real good chance he will not make it either via YES vote or getting dumped next year as Lib Dems are not exactly very popular in Scotland at present. Far too many hurdles to make 25/1 a good bet.
    SLD chumps have always been a Mike Smithson weakness. He is a big Rennie and Carmichael fan for example.

    On the other hand, he thinks that the only truly popular SLD - Charlie Kennedy - is a useless plonker.

    Mike is a contrarian.
    OGH is an internationally renowned tipster. You're a boring chump.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Socrates said:

    JBriskin said:

    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.

    Without wanting to give away any spoilers, the third season is pretty spectacular.
    I am vaguely famliar with the plot, and was talking at lunch yesterday about it, with another of our number who has also yet to watch it, and he started saying "Spoiler!!". Once I pointed out that it was a bit rich to accuse me of 'spoiling' a book which has been out for over a decade, he subsided a bit...

    I shall devour them as quickly as Netflix can get them through the mail into my little hands. One of the problems with these sword and dirty cloak epics is they all merge into a sort of Snow White and the Huntsman / Monty Python / Lord of the Rings / Kingdom of Heaven amalgam
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    Paddy just allowed me the princely sum of £1.63 at the surprisingly unaltered odds of 25/1.
    I can't say I fancy this bet much, but were Nick to fall under the proverbial then Danny Boy would certainly be a front runner, especially with his enhanced reputation after 4 years at the Treasury (for the same reason, Osborne's current odds to succeed Cameron are hugely overstated imho).

    I don't suppose Clegg is relishing next year's GE with his party set to lose up to half their seats and therefore perhaps he wouldn't take too much persuading to take up another, probably European role beforehand.

    Paddy Power allowed be a Max stake of 81 pence on the SNP in two Scottish seats (East Dunbartonshire 80/1 and Edinburgh North & Leith 40/1) and just 7 quid in Dundee West (7/2).

    It really is pretty pathetic.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Stuart Dickson - All true enough - And I'm genuinely tempted to put 10K on Yes as an insurance bet.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MikeK said:

    Socrates said:

    JBriskin said:

    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.

    Without wanting to give away any spoilers, the third season is pretty spectacular.
    Read the books and let your imagination soar. So much better than the HOB TV spectacular, however good the individual episodes are.
    Is it as good as The HBO version however? :-)

    To get the books it'l cost $30 from amazon. To watch the dvds they arive 3 at a time as part of my Netflix subscription. Cheaper to watch the TV version.

    Cost of soaring imagination omitted...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Mike's 33/1 on George Galloway is a good example of that.

    IIRC it was tipped at 250/1
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JBriskin said:

    Stuart Dickson - All true enough - And I'm genuinely tempted to put 10K on Yes as an insurance bet.

    An insurance bet? That implies that you have been backing No at miniscule prices??

    I warned everybody last year, when No was trading at ridiculously small numbers at Betfair that No-backers would be far better biding their time, until the price rose to a reasonable level.

    Tiny odds-on betting is rarely a wise strategy.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    "It sounds like Machiavelli was right. A confederation of states has a maximum size of 4-6 before it becomes too unwieldy to be worth the effort."

    Didn't know Machiavelli said that but I think he prob had a point.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MrJones said:

    FPT

    "It sounds like Machiavelli was right. A confederation of states has a maximum size of 4-6 before it becomes too unwieldy to be worth the effort."

    Didn't know Machiavelli said that but I think he prob had a point.

    Err... the USA has 50 member states, and they've done not too badly.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Stuart Dickson - I haven't bet on the referendum yet.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JBriskin said:

    Stuart Dickson - I haven't bet on the referendum yet.

    Then why refer to it as an "insurance bet"? What would your 10,000 quid on YES be insuring you against?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    MrJones - I think Machiavelli was actually arguing for the amalgamation of 4-6 city states in The Prince, but I'm not an expert.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [What would your 10,000 quid on YES be insuring you against?]

    An independent Scotland.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    JBriskin said:

    MrJones - I think Machiavelli was actually arguing for the amalgamation of 4-6 city states in The Prince, but I'm not an expert.

    ah, will have to have a read
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited May 2014

    MrJones said:

    FPT

    "It sounds like Machiavelli was right. A confederation of states has a maximum size of 4-6 before it becomes too unwieldy to be worth the effort."

    Didn't know Machiavelli said that but I think he prob had a point.

    Err... the USA has 50 member states, and they've done not too badly.
    mebbe. I'd say they did very well (past tense) before the federal government got too big and the states became provinces.

    edit: I guess it hinges on the definition of federation.

    edit2: or another way, the difference between a federated state and a federation of states
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    I think I’d rather go to Mars. I’ve been to Birmingham!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    The US and Brazil are converging, with the US going backwards at a rapid rate, soon North America will consist solely of Canada as the US follows Miami and becomes part of Latin America. China will join its North East Asian neighbours as the richest and most powerful country. Indonesia, India will remain very backward countries lacking the necessary human capital. The current immigration debate and how that fairs will determine Europe's future, Russia will perhaps be the last bulwark of European civilisation.

    Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Pol Pot, none were Christians, what if they had been rather than atheists?

    Current demographic trends suggest Mormons and Amish will make up an increasingly significant block of the European American population of the US as lefties die out due to lack of breeding, what will be the implications?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    Socrates said:

    JBriskin said:

    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.

    Without wanting to give away any spoilers, the third season is pretty spectacular.
    Read the books and let your imagination soar. So much better than the HOB TV spectacular, however good the individual episodes are.
    Agree with this. The books are a lot better than the TV series. Although the TV series has been improving.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT

    "IIRC - One of the pollsters last year said, unprompting for the major parties leads to higher DNK/WNV than normal"

    Sounds more accurate then.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Wish I'd seen this in time for OGH's birthday...

    http://www.discogs.com/Various-A-Hard-Knight-At-Dirty-Dicks/release/5053923
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Next said:

    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

    Surely by definition, all those who 'need' to get to Birminham can currently do so. What will HS2 do other than presumably shorten the journey time?
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

    Surely by definition, all those who 'need' to get to Birminham can currently do so. What will HS2 do other than presumably shorten the journey time?
    Increase capacity, which will run out otherwise.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Any polls due?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185
    RodCrosby said:

    Any polls due?

    YouGov I assume later
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Hang on one high falutin' minute!

    The girl at the centre of the Roger Helmer "outrage" on Sunday, Alexandra Swann, was on Channel 4 News last night sticking up for the UKIP...

    Wass 'appening?

    http://www.channel4.com/news/ukip-member-quits-terrifying-racist-populism-farage
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    "India send a rocket to Mars"

    A shipment of chocolate bars have gone missing en route to Dehli, leading to the Indian PM sending a rebuke to his favourite confectioner
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ok own up. Which one of you is Michael Dugher

    "Michael Dugher, a Shadow Cabinet Minister and a no-nonsense Northerner, said: "The idea Nigel Farage is some sort of the voice of the working class frankly is bollocks."

    His outburst came in an astonishing interview with Express.co.uk, suggesting Labour is beginning to realise the threat Ukip represents to its traditional working class vote.

    Barnsley East MP Mr Dugher said Mr Farage "masquerades as the anti-politics candidate" but that he has in fact spent 15 years as a full-time politician.

    He said Mr Farage was a former stockbroker and in fact anti-working class.

    "Look at his policies - taking away workers' rights, charging people to see their GP and tax cuts for millionaires," he said.

    "Farage comes across as a kind of man in the pub, the voice of the working man, but he is a bull**** artist. He's an actor, he's phoney, he pretends he's something he's not"

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/476168/Nigel-Farage-is-a-phoney-BS-artist-Labour-s-ASTONISHING-new-attack-on-Ukip
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    Strikes a note with stupid people or UKIP voters, you decide how to differentiate.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185
    isam said:
    Erm I'm afraid I have limited sympathy. There's a little trick that could have avoided all that confusion, it's called reading. It's even easier with a postal vote when you can take a bit more time to do it slowly.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Next said:

    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

    Surely by definition, all those who 'need' to get to Birminham can currently do so. What will HS2 do other than presumably shorten the journey time?
    Increase capacity, which will run out otherwise.

    Seems an amazingly expensive way of 'increasing capacity'. What about road widening? Double decker rail cars such as used in commuter trains in many places here? Starting an air shuttle between London airports and Birmingham?

    How much untapped demand is there?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:
    Erm I'm afraid I have limited sympathy. There's a little trick that could have avoided all that confusion, it's called reading. It's even easier with a postal vote when you can take a bit more time to do it slowly.
    Not blaming anyone merely pointing it out, Ease off the aggression accelerator
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Tories have their star 'turn' Boris outside Westminster, must be hard for Lib Dems that theirs is too...

    Where is Lembit these days?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Just see this gem:

    Justine Greening ‏@JustineGreening 45m
    Sentencing a woman to death for her religious beliefs is truly appalling. Sudan has a duty to protect the basic human rights of all women.

    And is Sudan doesn't? Well then Justine Greening will, presumably, just keep giving them even more money borrowed from our children's future until they do jolly well behave.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:
    Erm I'm afraid I have limited sympathy. There's a little trick that could have avoided all that confusion, it's called reading. It's even easier with a postal vote when you can take a bit more time to do it slowly.
    I agree. I do think there is confusion, especially with the line "UK independence now". But that's only if trying to read quickly in a booth. A postal voter should have no excuse.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    isam said:

    Ok own up. Which one of you is Michael Dugher

    "Michael Dugher, a Shadow Cabinet Minister and a no-nonsense Northerner, said: "The idea Nigel Farage is some sort of the voice of the working class frankly is bollocks."

    His outburst came in an astonishing interview with Express.co.uk, suggesting Labour is beginning to realise the threat Ukip represents to its traditional working class vote.

    Barnsley East MP Mr Dugher said Mr Farage "masquerades as the anti-politics candidate" but that he has in fact spent 15 years as a full-time politician.

    He said Mr Farage was a former stockbroker and in fact anti-working class.

    "Look at his policies - taking away workers' rights, charging people to see their GP and tax cuts for millionaires," he said.

    "Farage comes across as a kind of man in the pub, the voice of the working man, but he is a bull**** artist. He's an actor, he's phoney, he pretends he's something he's not"

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/476168/Nigel-Farage-is-a-phoney-BS-artist-Labour-s-ASTONISHING-new-attack-on-Ukip

    It's not a spade, it's a ******* shovel come to mind!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2014

    MikeK said:

    Socrates said:

    JBriskin said:

    TimB - I found the first Game of Thrones season to be very good - but I think the hype is probably spoiling it now. We'll probably get the boxset - we've still got DR HOUSE (capitals because it's the best programme ever) to get through.

    Without wanting to give away any spoilers, the third season is pretty spectacular.
    Read the books and let your imagination soar. So much better than the HOB TV spectacular, however good the individual episodes are.
    Agree with this. The books are a lot better than the TV series. Although the TV series has been improving.

    Having now seen 2 and a bit episodes, I have ordered the box set of 5 books. Why not all 6?.

    The small matters committee was very Pythonesque..
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185
    isam said:

    ToryJim said:

    isam said:
    Erm I'm afraid I have limited sympathy. There's a little trick that could have avoided all that confusion, it's called reading. It's even easier with a postal vote when you can take a bit more time to do it slowly.
    Not blaming anyone merely pointing it out, Ease off the aggression accelerator
    Not being aggressive.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

    Surely by definition, all those who 'need' to get to Birminham can currently do so. What will HS2 do other than presumably shorten the journey time?
    Increase capacity, which will run out otherwise.

    Seems an amazingly expensive way of 'increasing capacity'. What about road widening? Double decker rail cars such as used in commuter trains in many places here? Starting an air shuttle between London airports and Birmingham?

    How much untapped demand is there?
    Crikey, Mr B, you aren't allowed to ask that question! Lots more people use the railways now than in the past, therefore even lots more people will want to use them in the future. That is all you need to know. Oh, and lots and lots of people will be prepared to pay a premium price to get to, or more like from, Birmingham a bit quicker.

    Got that? Well you now have the business case for HS2.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

    Surely by definition, all those who 'need' to get to Birminham can currently do so. What will HS2 do other than presumably shorten the journey time?
    Increase capacity, which will run out otherwise.

    Seems an amazingly expensive way of 'increasing capacity'. What about road widening? Double decker rail cars such as used in commuter trains in many places here? Starting an air shuttle between London airports and Birmingham?

    How much untapped demand is there?
    Plenty to get out of Brum.


  • surbiton said:

    Stephen Fisher's 2015 GE updated seats projection tomorrow could be interesting.

    What's so interesting ? He will be coming closer and closer to the current polls and in 2015 his siidekicks will say what a Sage he is [ was ].
    You sound decidedly rattled!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,185
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    Hang on one high falutin' minute!

    The girl at the centre of the Roger Helmer "outrage" on Sunday, Alexandra Swann, was on Channel 4 News last night sticking up for the UKIP...

    Wass 'appening?

    http://www.channel4.com/news/ukip-member-quits-terrifying-racist-populism-farage

    That was unexpected. Many thanks Ms Swann!

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Tories have their star 'turn' Boris outside Westminster, must be hard for Lib Dems that theirs is too...

    Where is Lembit these days?

    There's a difference between a star turn and an asteroid turn.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Golly, Justine Greening is really chucking her weight around today, from the DfID web site:

    "We will strongly support a new UN Security Council resolution to compel the regime to allow humanitarian aid into Syria ..."

    I bet Assad is trembling in his boots.

    Shame really, I had high hopes for Greening but she is nowadays coming across as Joyce Grenfell in her St Trinian role. Cameron stitched her up a treat by giving her the DfID job (getting rid of a potential rival?)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Golly, Justine Greening is really chucking her weight around today, from the DfID web site:

    "We will strongly support a new UN Security Council resolution to compel the regime to allow humanitarian aid into Syria ..."

    I bet Assad is trembling in his boots.

    Shame really, I had high hopes for Greening but she is nowadays coming across as Joyce Grenfell in her St Trinian role. Cameron stitched her up a treat by giving her the DfID job (getting rid of a potential rival?)

    Punishment for blocking Heathrow. DfiD means lots of flying.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:
    Erm I'm afraid I have limited sympathy. There's a little trick that could have avoided all that confusion, it's called reading. It's even easier with a postal vote when you can take a bit more time to do it slowly.
    And I have limited sympathy with your limited sympathy. The stupid, over-hasty and semi-literate all have the right to vote - that is what democracy means - and to say that it is fair to dupe them because they are easily duped is nonsense.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Carola said:
    Crumbs, whatever next? People noticing that median wages are lower and deprivation is higher in some rural areas than in some cities where HMG has been lavishing so much dosh? Nah, can't happen. Too many heads would explode as their fantasies were exposed as just that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678

    malcolmg said:

    On topic, I'm not persuaded (but then I have a habit of not being persuaded by Mike's long-odds bets which turn out to be better than I thought, so buyer beware and all that).

    Firstly, Scotland needs to vote No, which it probably will but it's still an uncertainty. Similarly, any vacancy in the Lib Dem leadership pre-September is going to be very difficult for a Scot to fill if the referendum looks tight (or Yes), which is likely to remain the case.

    Secondly, Alexander is surely too much on the Cleggite wing to win back the Red Liberals that they so desperately need to. I agree with Mike that Farron would stand a better chance after the election but he'd still be better placed to my mind beforehand.

    However, Cable would be better placed still to stand in as a temporary leader to see them through the election. Cable hasn't set the world alight at his department but nor has he done badly. Against a tough electoral backdrop, he'd be a safe pair of hands, which isn't necessarily the case for the younger generation. Young cardinals can happily vote for old popes. Were there to be a vacancy, would the Lib Dems want a potentially divisive leadership election a few months before the election, pitting coalitionistas against oppositionists? Or is it better to defer the thing until afterwards and unify round the elder statesman in the meantime?

    And then there's Alexander's own abilities. As a minister, he's been very effective; one of the Lib Dems' best. As a media performer, he's still a bit lightweight.

    25/1? I don't think so. As Mike says, the chances of a vacancy aren't high and if there is one, Alexander just has too many negatives. I wouldn't be backing south of 66/1.

    He is a fanny and hopefully will be dumped by a large margin , has more faces than the town clock.
    David - I still remember when you rubbished my 33/1 tip on George Galloway.

    Anybody can tip odds on favourites. I go for long-shots, announce it advance and my record is pretty good. You can have a lot of losers if a 25/1 shot comes in.
    That's true (and to be fair, I did mention the success of your long-odds tips in my first post, and of my not always buying into them as early as I should have).

    That said, I still don't see this one coming off. Why would the Lib Dems dump Clegg in favour of someone just the same but more so? Even if Clegg jumped rather than was pushed, it'd still imply some sort of pressure, giving everyone who stands for something different an advantage. And, as has been mentioned, there's the Scottish dimension. I stand by my earlier comment that I'd see him as more of a 66/1 shot than 25s.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:
    I predict double digit swings to Labour in the NW, basically anywhere north of the Severn-The Wash line.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2014

    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Tim_B said:

    Next said:

    Grandiose said:

    MikeK said:

    This strikes a note:

    UKIPNorthCornwall ‏@UKIPNCornwall May 6
    India are spending £45 million to get to Mars. The UK are spending £60 billion to get to Birmingham. #HS2

    The Indian Space programme's budget is $1.1bn a year and it has not yet put anyone in space (now scheduled for 2020 - delayed) let alone the moon or Mars. In terms of unmanned programmes after its first launch in 2009, the second launch is due for 2017 having been delayed by at least four years. It will be many years before India can put either an unmanned or manned craft on Mars and at the cost of many billions of pounds.
    Not to mention that HS2 will get lots of people to Birmingham & back, not just a capsule of 3.

    Surely by definition, all those who 'need' to get to Birminham can currently do so. What will HS2 do other than presumably shorten the journey time?
    Increase capacity, which will run out otherwise.

    Seems an amazingly expensive way of 'increasing capacity'. What about road widening? Double decker rail cars such as used in commuter trains in many places here? Starting an air shuttle between London airports and Birmingham?

    How much untapped demand is there?
    Crikey, Mr B, you aren't allowed to ask that question! Lots more people use the railways now than in the past, therefore even lots more people will want to use them in the future. That is all you need to know. Oh, and lots and lots of people will be prepared to pay a premium price to get to, or more like from, Birmingham a bit quicker.

    Got that? Well you now have the business case for HS2.
    Oh dear - have I transgressed the unwritten rule again? sorry :-)

    Lots of good things have come out of Birmingham, once home to the mighty ATV. The Muppet Show was made in London, but who can forget the mighty Bennie from Crossroads?

    On second thought, why would anyone want to get to Brum any faster?
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