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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 25-1 on Danny Alexander being LD leader at GE 2015 is g
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 25-1 on Danny Alexander being LD leader at GE 2015 is good value bet
For the Lib Dems I like the 25/1 that Paddy Power is offering on Danny Alexander. He’s positioned himself well as the continuity candidate and would, I think, get the backing of party grandees.
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It's not enough that I get messages from candidates urging me to support them for every office from county commissioner to congressman to senator to state house or state senator, from secretary for education to who knows what - that's ignoring the "press 1 if you're going to vote in the Republican primary, 3 if you're not sure, 4 if you need transport" stuff.
Because of my zip code , I don't get Democratic calls.
I'm noticing a new wrinkle as the frequency of calls ramps up ever higher - now candidates are calling urging me to join them and support other candidates for office - xxx who is running for xxx office, as if their own 'vote for me' message wasn't enough.
There is a national 'do not call' list maintained by the feds, to prevent unsolicited marketing calls, and folks can get fined if you're on the list and they call you.
I'm on the list - but political campaigning isn't included, as it's 'free speech'.
Clegg hasn't been a commissioner, so it would be Cathy Ashton
Or Neil Kinnock
The ONS have recently issued their election statistics for the 2013 registration.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/electoral-statistics-for-uk/2013/stb---2013-electoral-statistics.html
Looking at the difference between general election voters and local election voters this gives a difference of about 1.5m. In the main these would be registered EU voters (plus peers etc.)
Not impressed by either him or the 25/1, sorry...
The idea that God is a reasonable, Guardian-reading sort of chap, presiding benignly over some sort of celestial welfare state seems an absurdity, not least because it flies in the face of so much evidence.
"Why does God let so many bad things happen?" Because he (or they) can. Hence the arrogance that God/s can be argued with as equals and demanded apologies from. Truly men raise themselves thus to be gods - and lo, the world shook about them.
I'm not terribly inclined towards religion but if I was, I think the old-fashioned pagan / Greek / Roman / Norse gods would have a lot more going for them conceptually; ones who exist on their own plane and who interfere in the world for their own amusement or ends, though who can, as the mood takes them, reward acts of charity, justice and nobility.
It's always possible that there's an extremely powerful God who has a lot to look after in the universe. We're just one of a billion billion worlds.
I'd guess much the same thing would recur.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=danny+alexander&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=fO50U_mZOYbgOMS9gKAH&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAg&biw=1280&bih=678
Whining about death seems to be the modern malaise.
I shall report back as to how I got on.
twitter.com/Independent/status/466982217567465472/photo/1
Firstly, Scotland needs to vote No, which it probably will but it's still an uncertainty. Similarly, any vacancy in the Lib Dem leadership pre-September is going to be very difficult for a Scot to fill if the referendum looks tight (or Yes), which is likely to remain the case.
Secondly, Alexander is surely too much on the Cleggite wing to win back the Red Liberals that they so desperately need to. I agree with Mike that Farron would stand a better chance after the election but he'd still be better placed to my mind beforehand.
However, Cable would be better placed still to stand in as a temporary leader to see them through the election. Cable hasn't set the world alight at his department but nor has he done badly. Against a tough electoral backdrop, he'd be a safe pair of hands, which isn't necessarily the case for the younger generation. Young cardinals can happily vote for old popes. Were there to be a vacancy, would the Lib Dems want a potentially divisive leadership election a few months before the election, pitting coalitionistas against oppositionists? Or is it better to defer the thing until afterwards and unify round the elder statesman in the meantime?
And then there's Alexander's own abilities. As a minister, he's been very effective; one of the Lib Dems' best. As a media performer, he's still a bit lightweight.
25/1? I don't think so. As Mike says, the chances of a vacancy aren't high and if there is one, Alexander just has too many negatives. I wouldn't be backing south of 66/1.
Grand Moff Mandelson was first choice but I forget what age he is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10833885/Party-leaders-urged-to-take-part-in-historic-online-debate.html
The irony is evolution provides an explanation. For evolution to work God would have to hang back the same way a parent has to hang back after taking the learner wheels off their kid's bike.
(1) God probably does not exist except in Universes where he does.
(2) Whether this is one of those Universes probably depends on whether we observe/worship him or not under quantum theory (especially if he or she is a cat?)
(3) A Universe where God does exist is inherently more plausible than either a charismatic Ed or a credible Nick.
(4) The tories are probably going to hold Newark in this Universe and pretty much every conceivable one.
Did I miss anything?
Maybe that might be better for Farage. He has become a proxy for all kinds of people whose only common trait is they don't like the liblabcon.
Nail him down to views on common-or-garden policy, and perhaps a few followers might be disappointed.
Is it over 80% ? If so then Clegg at 1-4 is the value.
But this is a tricky thing to measure.
It needs an enemy - The Hundred Years' War was massively important in creating national identity in both England and France. Hopefully we could avoid a war, but perhaps having Russia as an enemy would do wonders for European unity.
It needs to have a clear idea of what it has in common that makes it different to the rest of the world - Hopefully this would be things like the rule of law, the welfare state and multi-party democracy, but, well. I've heard historians argue that for England the things that mattered in the early modern era were: not being Irish, not being Catholic and possessing English liberty.
It needs a creation myth - Lord knows we have enough history in which to find one, but it needs to be something that everyone can unite round, just as in England there are stories like Arthur and the Knight's of the Round Table, or Robin Hood, or Alfred and his burnt cakes.
It needs a leader - Most of all Europe needs a leader who leads for all of Europe. At the moment, when politicians go to Brussels they do so to extract the best deal for their own country, rather than having an ideological conflict over the best policy for Europe as a whole. If ideology ever becomes more important than the perceived national interest in European politics it will mark an important step on the road to creating a European nation.
I tend to think that if it is going to happen it isn't going to be this time. Too many mistakes have been made and too much goodwill has been lost. A period of disunity struggling in a world dominated by China and the US may concentrate minds on taking the endeavour more seriously next time.
The snake Farron is a shoe in.
On topic, it needs Clegg to go but the consensus to be that the party still needs a strong pro-Coalition person. 25-1 does sound a good price, but Cable would fit the bill better - he's always been about as differentiated as the party currently wants to be (i.e. votes with the Government, sits as a senior Minister, but is disdainful about it), and a natural caretaker who could easily resign without disgrace if the election goes badly.
*Cosmopolitan Conspiracy*
In any case, both periods were marked by massive technological advantages over 'the rest'; something no longer possible in a globalised world:
Whatever happens, we have got
The Maxim gun, and they have not.
Sean's right. There are two types of state in the world: powers of the first rank and everyone else. We're currently everyone else. A united EU wouldn't be.
It may be that there is a God required for each galaxy. That would still be a management headache....
"Economies of scale" describe something happening at the firm level. What are the economies of scale that exist at the international level? This is the same old high level guff that europhiles come out all the time. We need "clout" and "openness", but they're never practically defined.
1. There was very little advance under the Romans. There was much more during the time of the competing Greek city-states. Just look at the names: Archimedes, Plato, Aristotle etc.
2. China was well ahead for most of early history and then it stagnated.
Unless I'm very much mistaken they agree far, far more than they used to....
That's the spectre that haunts me a bit with getting out. Some generation down the line marching off to fight Germans or French.
Or both.
Never again.
Anybody can tip odds on favourites. I go for long-shots, announce it advance and my record is pretty good. You can have a lot of losers if a 25/1 shot comes in.
[What are the economies of scale that exist at the international level?]
I admittedly had to Google it - it's Comparative Advantage -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ricardo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ricardo#Comparative_advantage
A united europe will be historically as strong as the Holy Roman Empire besieged by Vikings, Muslims and Mongols. In the history of mankind everytime europe was united it was weak and everytime it was divided it was strong. Another case in point that national competition trumps size: Netherlands vs Habsburgs during the 16th and 17th centuries, the mighty Habsburg Empire was defeated by the Amsterdam traders, stockbrokers and republicans (A model for Britain vs EU).
It's good to see the LibLabCon Europhiles flying their united colours.
Nick Clegg is unlikely to stand down. I expect he's good value at 1/4, actually, but I don't like betting on something that is largely dependent on the thoughts of one man. And that 1/4 is likely to lengthen at the end of the month.
None of that means I want political union with the EU. If there are countries that share our interests in international affairs - great. We can ally with them in accordance with other interests on a case-by-case basis. I see no need to farm that out to an EU superstate. Nor would I want to.
I also don't think the UK is 'someone else'. We are likely to be the most populous nation in Europe in 30 years time,we're in the top 10 countries for population (or thereabouts) and easily a top 5-7 economy. Plus we have the worlds language, and immense cultural heritage and contemporary soft power.
I'm more than comfortable with Britain being a sustainable independent country on those figures, even in the very long-term.
I'd have thought one of the really big barriers to a USE is language. There'd need to be a common one. And there isn't. And there won't be. Despite the dominance of English.
None of that means I want political union with the EU. If there are countries that share our interests in international affairs - great. We can ally with them in accordance with other interests on a case-by-case basis. I see no need to farm that out to an EU superstate. Nor would I want to.
I also don't think the UK is 'someone else'. We are likely to be the most populous nation in Europe in 30 years time,we're in the top 10 countries for population (or thereabouts) and easily a top 5-7 economy. Plus we have the worlds language, and immense cultural heritage and contemporary soft power.
I'm more than comfortable with Britain being a sustainable independent country on those figures, even in the very long-term.
The best example is a brit, an italian and a russian are presented with the character
5
they all know what it means but now ask them to pronounce it. If they say it they can't understand each other, if they write it they can.
Italian, Spanish, French, Catalan etc are all similar, but they are separate languages.
Mandarin and Cantonese share the same written language.
That's all one needs to know.
It needs an enemy"
Ironically the most likely way for Europe to become a demos is through opposition to the EU.
edit: which is why SeanT is right imo that there are hints of one forming but it's the opposite one the europhiles want
First lesson of nations: Stand by your own feet, by joining declining powers or regions you decline too.
As believers that all life is sacred they are all anti-abortion yet pro-death penalty.
My understanding of basic christianity includes being caring, compassionate, and considerate to others. There is an unwritten yet understood suffix in the south - "as long as they agree with me and have my values."
They go to church each Sunday and praise the Lord for the birds of the sky and all the beasts of the field, then go home, change, and go out to hunt and kill a few.
According to Gallup a year or so ago, 46% of Americans think that God made humans within the last 10,000 years.
Which brings us to the US House Science, Space and Technology Committee, which should be a bulwark of common sense.
The Democrats are pretty loony - they want to close all coal power plants tommorow, close all the nuclear plants asap, put wind farms everywhere, stop oil drilling and tax energy companies out of existence.
Then there are the Republican members. US Rep Paul Broun, running for US Senate, and a physician - yes, a qualified medical doctor, said to a church audience in an off the record speech a couple of years ago that evolution, the big bang theory and embryology are lies from the pit of hell.
He was at a meeting in my area a couple of weeks back so I went along just for fun. It wasn't too well attended so I got to ask him if he actually said that. He waffled a bit and then said it was misquoted, was an off the record, private meeting, and taken out of context.
Fair enough - here's the context -
God’s word is true. I’ve come to understand that. All that stuff I was taught about evolution, embryology, Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell. It’s lies to try to keep me and all the folks who are taught that from understanding that they need a savior. There’s a lot of scientific data that I found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a young Earth. I believe that the Earth is about 9,000 years old. I believe that it was created in six days as we know them. That’s what the Bible says. And what I’ve come to learn is that it’s the manufacturer’s handbook, is what I call it. It teaches us how to run our lives individually. How to run our families, how to run our churches. But it teaches us how to run all our public policy and everything in society. And that’s the reason, as your congressman, I hold the Holy Bible as being the major directions to me of how I vote in Washington, D.C., and I’ll continue to do that.
As a result of his comments over 5000 people in the 10th district voted for Charles Darwin as a write in candidate in the 2012 election.
Why does he support Israel? No geo-political reasoning - it's because of a promise God made to Abraham.