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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Downing Street should be worry about the first Cummings pollin

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Mortimer said:

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    And to add, I think most of the social distancing regulations will be in place for months....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Banterman said:

    The left and the media are so desperate to bring Cummings down. He must scare the cack out of them.


    That old chestnut. LOL
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,214
    edited May 2020

    I'm not even sure why Tories are desperate to support Dom.

    He's not even a Tory.

    Dom's not one of them and is often openly contemptuous of politicians in general (as in that video someone posted yesterday or as played by Cumberbatch). The payroll vote may have tweeted their support this morning but what are backbenchers telling the 1922 and the whips?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    glw said:

    Absolute shower of bastards. Fuck the lot of them.
    I wouldn’t put it that way, though I sympathise with the sentiment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?
  • Ah so tonight's Tory PB playbook from CCHQ is "doesn't matter anyway, we won, get over it"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited May 2020
    MailOnline comments. The Westminster bubble, eh?


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Can @Alistair 's notes hang on :o ?!
    I knew I had doomed him from the very second I backed him.

    My record in these kind of markets is pretty much 100% failure. But the sheer brazenness and totally of the snow job Cummings and the cabinet put out convinced me he was safe for at least a week and probably permanently.

    But a second fucking visit? Had they not seen what happened to Calderwood?

    This is on par with Clinton's Presidential campaign for shit signal sending.

    I am utterly furious.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    This is the biggest crisis Boris has faced since he was elected other than in the ICU

    If Cummings has been twice he has to go

    Grow a pair Boris, sack him, and come out fighting or your Premiership could just go down the drain
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    edited May 2020

    There's no proof that he spread the virus to a single human being, so that's hardly a reasonable point.
    Honestly comrade...you are really are gunning for the Comical Ali PbCom Award....

    Some hints to help you achieve that accolade.....

    Our Dom is subject to the mother of all witch hunts...he was valiantly protected his wife and child...there is no proof that he had a shit in KFC en route to Durham....he only went there to save his poor child from starvation.....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,984

    I'm not even sure why Tories are desperate to support Dom.

    He's not even a Tory.

    It's more how he represents what they see as themselves: the meek, the ignored and the downtrodden, finally given voice in a land that had hitherto mocked their earthy truths and unassuming ways.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Mortimer said:

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Its because he has chosen a cabinet full of powerless schmucks who are managed by Dom. If Dom goes they become a cabinet full of powerful schmucks, which is not great for a PM.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Still defending Cummings's wrongdoing?
    Cummings is the architect of Tory wet dreams. They will forgive him anything, he can do no wrong.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Ave_it said:

    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    Well maybe if the chief adviser to the government stopped wandering around the country on 350 mile drives each weekend we would have made more progress?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    The most stupid thing about this is that resignations in politics are far from permanent. Just look at Peter Mandelson!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Well maybe if the chief adviser to the government stopped wandering around the country on 350 mile drives each weekend we would have made more progress?
    500 miles surely, there and back?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's fair to say that most of the ministers who tweeted support today did so in terms fairly carefully expressed only to cover caring for a child in an emergency; I think they were mostly hedging their bets and we are finding out why.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    Cummings is the architect of Tory wet dreams. They will forgive him anything, he can do no wrong.
    If he went twice he has to go.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Carnyx said:

    500 miles surely, there and back?
    700 miles I stand corrected.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,350
    Scott_xP said:
    Saw a tweet that said Buckland & Jenrick were the only 2 ministers who hadn't Cumtweeted, so that narrows it down.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    Ave_it said:

    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    I'm just not sure the patience is running out - an awful lot of people who I speak to were worried about the 1st June date. I think the studied ambiguity of the 'stay alert' guidance allows both lockdowners and easers some latitude as to their own activities. Trains are still VERY quiet. I suspect airports etc are too.

    My fear is as soon as shops start reopening, an attempt to try and return to normality won't be far behind.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Carnyx said:

    500 miles surely, there and back?
    Let's call it 350 miles a week.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    tlg86 said:

    The most stupid thing about this is that resignations in politics are far from permanent. Just look at Peter Mandelson!

    Indeed. Boris could have easily sacked Cummings, and brought him back in a "new" role in a few months time.

    But instead we've had virtually the whole cabinet defending Cummings when it turns out his story has more holes than a fishing net. You would have thought they would know what Boris and Cummings are like, and been a little bit wary.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat

    And Nicola, Drakesford and Foster all asleep at the wheel as well

    No part of the UK acted any differently

    The enquiry will be interesting
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    tyson said:

    Honestly comrade...you are really are gunning for the Comical Ali PbCom Award....

    Some hints to help you achieve that accolade.....

    Our Dom is subject to the mother of all witch hunts...he was valiantly protected his wife and child...there is no proof that he had a shit in KFC en route to Durham....he only went there to save his poor child from starvation.....
    Talking of people accused of Comical Ali-ism in the past, HYUFD has been very quiet on this topic today. I think that may well reflect the view of many rank and file Tories.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530

    Matthew Parris said Westland marked the passing of Maggie's noon, though many more years in power awaited her. I have to say this has a similar feel to it: the best bits for Boris may have already gone.
    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
  • The cult of Cummings is strong on PB
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    Scott_xP said:
    Thanks. As I asked earlier: how fares the Northern Red Wall tonight?

    The way that the Cabinet and sundry hangers on don't get how bad this plays in the real world speaks volumes.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569
    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Scott_xP said:
    They may claim that call was about security, not covid19.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    The problem this government faces is that their stock of political capital is unlikely to be replenished for a very long time. The economic picture will not afford many opportunities for good news. So why spend a cent of it defending Dom?

    I don’t get it, especially when he’s just an advisor whose big political project is now superseded by events.

    Disposable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    Honestly, it is difficult to keep up with the holes in Dom's cheese tonight.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530
    Ave_it said:

    116,000 tests 2,950 positive approx
    Thanks.

    It seems that this story was only a local issue:

    One day last week the number of new coronavirus cases registered at Bradford Royal Infirmary jumped to 30. Dr John Wright thinks there could be a link to VE Day parties that ended in fist fights, or in embraces.

    The day after the Prime Minister announced an easing of the lockdown, the number of new Covid patients in the hospital fell to a reassuring three. And two of them were my medical colleagues.

    The low figure partly resulted from delays in reporting, which happen every weekend, but there was still a collective sigh of relief. Maybe everything was going to be all right after all?

    But three days later, on Thursday 14 May, the number of new Covid-positive patients had shot up to 30.

    It's just one figure, and in normal times we might discount it as random variation. However these are times of alertness, and every flicker of the Covid dashboard needle triggers nervous anticipation of a possible spike.

    There is a delay between infection and symptoms, usually about five-to-seven days. So these cases would have been incubating since the week before - and possibly since the communal gatherings on VE Day, six days earlier.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52715571
  • 8 point gap on best PM question is hugely damaging for the Tories.

    Starmer will be even on that soon.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,350

    And Nicola, Drakesford and Foster all asleep at the wheel as well

    No part of the UK acted any differently

    The enquiry will be interesting
    Lol@Yoons

    Absolute disgrace, Nicola made a statement about Scotland an hour before Boris, pure politicking!

    Also

    Nicola should have unilaterally locked down Scotland earlier!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited May 2020
    [deleted]
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    This whole thing relies upon the Guardian and Mirror actually reporting facts for once. Not usually a risk free assumption.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.


    Except.....if Dom goes....so, goes BoJo's authority on the cabinet...the two are intrinsically linked....

    I think BoJo is now fighting tonight for his own survival...he needs Dom to tough it out....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Lol@Yoons

    Absolute disgrace, Nicola made a statement about Scotland an hour before Boris, pure politicking!

    Also

    Nicola should have unilaterally locked down Scotland earlier!
    It's funny. They moan when the Scots do something different and they moan when the Scots do the same. Irrespective of the actual merits of the matters in hand.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    They may claim that call was about security, not covid19.
    They obfuscated. They said that neither Dom nor his Wife were called by police, but said it in a way that suggested it was none of Dom's immediate family.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    The cult of Cummings is strong on PB

    The revelation he went twice means he has to go

    And I admit I do not know much about him so not a cult follower

    Boris is more of a concern for me.

    He needs to sack him and step up to the plate

    I am losing patience
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Cummings brexit strategy was clearly masterful, but why does Boris need him now ?
    Brexit is done and he's a liability. Ironically if he goes the more hardcore brexiteers may hold more sway so a crash out becomes more likely perhaps at the margins - but he has to go, you can't have senior Gov't people undermining a central lockdown message in the middle of a pandemic. Every minute he's not sacked he saps the Gov'ts authority and capital.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,214

    Flip-flopping favourites and a difference of opinion.

    Ladbrokes: 8/11 go; Evens stay.
    PP/Betfair: Evens go; 8/11 stay.
    PP/Betfair: 5/6 each of two.
    Ladbrokes: 4/6 go; 11/10 stay.
    Starsports: 4/6 stay; 11/10 go.

    Fast fingered punters can lock in a profit!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    ydoethur said:

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited May 2020

    If he was breaking lockdown thats one thing, and I agree that adding a level of personal decision making there is correct. A significant proportion of the population have not followed all the lockdown rules. It would still be hypocritical but that would be a different level offence.

    But the problem is he broke quarantine. He thought the family was contagious and still thought the rules dont apply to him, that is just so different, it is dangerous and selfish.
    True, it is a different level of risk. IF he drove all the way in one go without stopping (which is certainly possible) then technically he was still in quarantine. But breaking down wouldn't have been terribly good. I don't know what his actual state of mind was or what his real reasons for doing it were, and I'm not sure we'll ever be totally sure about that.

    But, still, meh. There are many other, better, questions to be asking at the moment.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,350
    Feck, that's pretty rank for Davey considering he's not really been visible.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,147
    Pulpstar said:

    Cummings brexit strategy was clearly masterful, but why does Boris need him now ?

    As well as providing all the intellectual muscle (such as it is), he is also the cabinet enforcer.

    They are shit scared of Dom. They know BoZo is a fuckwit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    Alistair said:

    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
    He could have spent years as head of UK National AI Research Centre.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030

    Lol@Yoons

    Absolute disgrace, Nicola made a statement about Scotland an hour before Boris, pure politicking!

    Also

    Nicola should have unilaterally locked down Scotland earlier!
    Your last sentence made my point for me.

    They collectively failed and I assume it will be the advice that will be the key
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Scott_xP said:

    As well as providing all the intellectual muscle (such as it is), he is also the cabinet enforcer.

    They are shit scared of Dom. They know BoZo is a fuckwit.
    Even if he doesn’t go this will damage his political capital.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    It's reality. Sorry that you're having a hard time accepting it. I have just as much right not to wet myself over a few bad headlines as you have to do so.
    We are discussing whether Cummings deserves to be sacked. As far as I can see nobody is arguing that this is going to be a game changer as far as the next election is concerned.

    If none of it matters because you have a huge majority why are you wasting most of the day banging out comments trying to defend him?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    If he went twice he has to go.
    If he had gone the first time, it would have been forgotten already. In my opinion, all he done is ruin his own reputation, the PM's reputation and most of the Cabinet's reputation.

    The longer he stays, the more damage he does. Perhaps, on reflection, it is a good thing. The populist remnant of what used to be Tory Party needs to go and be replaced by a proper centre right party.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,350
    Almost entirely pre Dom's travel itinerary being leaked?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Alistair said:

    They obfuscated. They said that neither Dom nor his Wife were called by police, but said it in a way that suggested it was none of Dom's immediate family.
    I would like to know if either him or his wife ever tested positive for covid19.

    I am beginning to doubt it. Their statement does not say they were. If they had it why not mention it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,947
    Has anyone issued any sort of refutation of the witnesses yet?
    Ps. This explains a lot of Starmer's tactics since being elected. Broadly supportive but anxious to implant the idea they don't really know what they are doing. Out of sadness and concern, not anger.
    He knew about this when the Guardian and Mirror did.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    True, it is a different level of risk. IF he drove all the way in one go without stopping (which is certainly possible) then technically he was still in quarantine. But breaking down wouldn't have been terribly good. I don't know what his actual state of mind was or what his real reasons for doing it were, and I'm not sure we'll ever be totally sure about that.

    But, still, meh. There are many other, better, questions to be asking at the moment.
    Driving 250 miles without a stop when ill is reckless driving.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Mortimer said:

    I'm just not sure the patience is running out - an awful lot of people who I speak to were worried about the 1st June date. I think the studied ambiguity of the 'stay alert' guidance allows both lockdowners and easers some latitude as to their own activities. Trains are still VERY quiet. I suspect airports etc are too.

    My fear is as soon as shops start reopening, an attempt to try and return to normality won't be far behind.
    I agree with you. The rate of infections is still too high to meet even the government's tests for significantly easing the lockdown, and is also too high for the track and trace system (even if it were to work well) to capture all outbreaks. Infections are now significantly lower in most other European countries than here.

    Most people I know, including those in their 20s and 30s, are still quite fearful, and although many have started meeting up with individual friends they are avoiding group activities of all sorts; they wouldn't yet go to the pubs even if they were open. The idea that the young have become blase about the virus doesn't seem to me to be accurate.
  • When did a Labour leader last lead on best PM?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    Alistair said:

    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
    I though straight away that it was blindingly obvious Cummings had to go, and politically the smart thing would have been to sack him immediately.

    Instead we've had 24 hours of almost the whole Cabinet at best demeaning themselves, and at worst lying to us.

    Put aside the rights and wrongs of what Cummings has done but politically this is amateurish. A Cabinet of clowns, led by a man who is a lying lazy bluffer, advised by someone who plainly hasn't even tried to abide by the rules.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    He could have spent years as head of UK National AI Research Centre.
    AI? Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Insemination.? :open_mouth:
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited May 2020
    Starmer from 26 point Tory lead to 12 points is impressive
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Feck, that's pretty rank for Davey considering he's not really been visible.
    I must admit I'm a Lib Dem member and even I have neither a favourable nor unfavourable opinion of him as Lib Dem leader.

    Likewise on Farage as leader of the Brexit Party. I honestly assumed he'd stepped down. What is he doing there? Job's done.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    dixiedean said:

    Has anyone issued any sort of refutation of the witnesses yet?
    Ps. This explains a lot of Starmer's tactics since being elected. Broadly supportive but anxious to implant the idea they don't really know what they are doing. Out of sadness and concern, not anger.
    He knew about this when the Guardian and Mirror did.

    I suspect, but cannot prove, that the Mirror and the Guardian have been verifying their sources for the last few weeks to strengthen this witness evidence.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,214

    AI? Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Insemination.? :open_mouth:
    No, A1, the road from London to Durham.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
    Maggie had political talent. Boris has bluster.

    If Boris does not get his act together he will be doing well to survive another 4.5 months.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Scott_xP said:
    I do believe that the UK is going to have about the worst outcome of this pandemic anywhere in Europe and I don't think Boris's government is going to be able to escape the consequences of that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,686
    edited May 2020

    When did a Labour leader last lead on best PM?

    Jeremy Corbyn, June 2017, with YouGov.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Scott_xP said:
    Sorry, I couldn't care less about what Cummings did. I didn't about Ferguson or Calderwood. Yes, they are hypocrites. But how many of us can say that we are not at some point or another?
This discussion has been closed.