Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Downing Street should be worry about the first Cummings pollin

124

Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    And to add, I think most of the social distancing regulations will be in place for months....
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Banterman said:

    The left and the media are so desperate to bring Cummings down. He must scare the cack out of them.


    That old chestnut. LOL
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    edited May 2020

    I'm not even sure why Tories are desperate to support Dom.

    He's not even a Tory.

    Dom's not one of them and is often openly contemptuous of politicians in general (as in that video someone posted yesterday or as played by Cumberbatch). The payroll vote may have tweeted their support this morning but what are backbenchers telling the 1922 and the whips?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    glw said:

    Well, I did point out the risks. Those dutiful Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers who have compromised their own integrity today have only themselves to blame.

    Absolute shower of bastards. Fuck the lot of them.
    I wouldn’t put it that way, though I sympathise with the sentiment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?
  • Ah so tonight's Tory PB playbook from CCHQ is "doesn't matter anyway, we won, get over it"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited May 2020
    MailOnline comments. The Westminster bubble, eh?


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Dominic Cummings visited his parents' home TWICE and took a trip 30 miles away, say new eyewitnesses as maverick No10 chief's excuse for travelling 260 miles while self-isolating with Covid-19 crumbles after he insisted he 'doesn't care' if it looks bad

    Mail

    Can @Alistair 's notes hang on :o ?!
    I knew I had doomed him from the very second I backed him.

    My record in these kind of markets is pretty much 100% failure. But the sheer brazenness and totally of the snow job Cummings and the cabinet put out convinced me he was safe for at least a week and probably permanently.

    But a second fucking visit? Had they not seen what happened to Calderwood?

    This is on par with Clinton's Presidential campaign for shit signal sending.

    I am utterly furious.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    This is the biggest crisis Boris has faced since he was elected other than in the ICU

    If Cummings has been twice he has to go

    Grow a pair Boris, sack him, and come out fighting or your Premiership could just go down the drain
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited May 2020

    OllyT said:

    DougSeal said:

    They were also furious with the photo of the boy lying on the hospital floor ... for two days, and then they forgot about it. I remain utterly perplexed with the obsession with ephemera on here.
    Not ephemera. People are scared of Covid-19 so they are scared of carriers travelling with it. This is going to hurt you badly.
    Yes, ephemera. In 4 years' time Covid will be long gone one way or another, and the rights and wrongs of Cummings' going to Durham will be utterly irrelevant.
    Your sole response to everything is "Suck it up losers, we won, we can do what we like, nothing else matters, na na na". It's infantile.

    It's reality. Sorry that you're having a hard time accepting it. I have just as much right not to wet myself over a few bad headlines as you have to do so.
    But what was the win for? The right for the elite to spread viruses 350 miles up the country?
    There's no proof that he spread the virus to a single human being, so that's hardly a reasonable point.
    Honestly comrade...you are really are gunning for the Comical Ali PbCom Award....

    Some hints to help you achieve that accolade.....

    Our Dom is subject to the mother of all witch hunts...he was valiantly protected his wife and child...there is no proof that he had a shit in KFC en route to Durham....he only went there to save his poor child from starvation.....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680

    I'm not even sure why Tories are desperate to support Dom.

    He's not even a Tory.

    It's more how he represents what they see as themselves: the meek, the ignored and the downtrodden, finally given voice in a land that had hitherto mocked their earthy truths and unassuming ways.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Its because he has chosen a cabinet full of powerless schmucks who are managed by Dom. If Dom goes they become a cabinet full of powerful schmucks, which is not great for a PM.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    Are you serious? The Tory lead is still in double digits after 10 years in power and in the middle of a pandemic. But by all means, please take the next election for granted. Underestimating Boris and Cummings has always worked out so well in the past.
    Still defending Cummings's wrongdoing?
    Cummings is the architect of Tory wet dreams. They will forgive him anything, he can do no wrong.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    Well maybe if the chief adviser to the government stopped wandering around the country on 350 mile drives each weekend we would have made more progress?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    The most stupid thing about this is that resignations in politics are far from permanent. Just look at Peter Mandelson!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    Well maybe if the chief adviser to the government stopped wandering around the country on 350 mile drives each weekend we would have made more progress?
    500 miles surely, there and back?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,555
    Scott_xP said:
    I think it's fair to say that most of the ministers who tweeted support today did so in terms fairly carefully expressed only to cover caring for a child in an emergency; I think they were mostly hedging their bets and we are finding out why.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    Are you serious? The Tory lead is still in double digits after 10 years in power and in the middle of a pandemic. But by all means, please take the next election for granted. Underestimating Boris and Cummings has always worked out so well in the past.
    Still defending Cummings's wrongdoing?
    Cummings is the architect of Tory wet dreams. They will forgive him anything, he can do no wrong.
    If he went twice he has to go.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Carnyx said:

    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    Well maybe if the chief adviser to the government stopped wandering around the country on 350 mile drives each weekend we would have made more progress?
    500 miles surely, there and back?
    700 miles I stand corrected.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Scott_xP said:
    Saw a tweet that said Buckland & Jenrick were the only 2 ministers who hadn't Cumtweeted, so that narrows it down.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    I'm just not sure the patience is running out - an awful lot of people who I speak to were worried about the 1st June date. I think the studied ambiguity of the 'stay alert' guidance allows both lockdowners and easers some latitude as to their own activities. Trains are still VERY quiet. I suspect airports etc are too.

    My fear is as soon as shops start reopening, an attempt to try and return to normality won't be far behind.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Carnyx said:

    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    Well maybe if the chief adviser to the government stopped wandering around the country on 350 mile drives each weekend we would have made more progress?
    500 miles surely, there and back?
    Let's call it 350 miles a week.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    tlg86 said:

    The most stupid thing about this is that resignations in politics are far from permanent. Just look at Peter Mandelson!

    Indeed. Boris could have easily sacked Cummings, and brought him back in a "new" role in a few months time.

    But instead we've had virtually the whole cabinet defending Cummings when it turns out his story has more holes than a fishing net. You would have thought they would know what Boris and Cummings are like, and been a little bit wary.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat

    And Nicola, Drakesford and Foster all asleep at the wheel as well

    No part of the UK acted any differently

    The enquiry will be interesting
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    tyson said:

    OllyT said:

    DougSeal said:

    They were also furious with the photo of the boy lying on the hospital floor ... for two days, and then they forgot about it. I remain utterly perplexed with the obsession with ephemera on here.
    Not ephemera. People are scared of Covid-19 so they are scared of carriers travelling with it. This is going to hurt you badly.
    Yes, ephemera. In 4 years' time Covid will be long gone one way or another, and the rights and wrongs of Cummings' going to Durham will be utterly irrelevant.
    Your sole response to everything is "Suck it up losers, we won, we can do what we like, nothing else matters, na na na". It's infantile.

    It's reality. Sorry that you're having a hard time accepting it. I have just as much right not to wet myself over a few bad headlines as you have to do so.
    But what was the win for? The right for the elite to spread viruses 350 miles up the country?
    There's no proof that he spread the virus to a single human being, so that's hardly a reasonable point.
    Honestly comrade...you are really are gunning for the Comical Ali PbCom Award....

    Some hints to help you achieve that accolade.....

    Our Dom is subject to the mother of all witch hunts...he was valiantly protected his wife and child...there is no proof that he had a shit in KFC en route to Durham....he only went there to save his poor child from starvation.....
    Talking of people accused of Comical Ali-ism in the past, HYUFD has been very quiet on this topic today. I think that may well reflect the view of many rank and file Tories.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    That's what they said about Westland and a hundred other political scandals.

    The reality is that major electoral shifts happen only very rarely.
    Matthew Parris said Westland marked the passing of Maggie's noon, though many more years in power awaited her. I have to say this has a similar feel to it: the best bits for Boris may have already gone.
    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
  • The cult of Cummings is strong on PB
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Scott_xP said:
    Thanks. As I asked earlier: how fares the Northern Red Wall tonight?

    The way that the Cabinet and sundry hangers on don't get how bad this plays in the real world speaks volumes.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Scott_xP said:
    They may claim that call was about security, not covid19.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The problem this government faces is that their stock of political capital is unlikely to be replenished for a very long time. The economic picture will not afford many opportunities for good news. So why spend a cent of it defending Dom?

    I don’t get it, especially when he’s just an advisor whose big political project is now superseded by events.

    Disposable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Honestly, it is difficult to keep up with the holes in Dom's cheese tonight.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Ave_it said:

    And does anyone know the today's numbers of tests and positive results ?

    116,000 tests 2,950 positive approx
    Thanks.

    It seems that this story was only a local issue:

    One day last week the number of new coronavirus cases registered at Bradford Royal Infirmary jumped to 30. Dr John Wright thinks there could be a link to VE Day parties that ended in fist fights, or in embraces.

    The day after the Prime Minister announced an easing of the lockdown, the number of new Covid patients in the hospital fell to a reassuring three. And two of them were my medical colleagues.

    The low figure partly resulted from delays in reporting, which happen every weekend, but there was still a collective sigh of relief. Maybe everything was going to be all right after all?

    But three days later, on Thursday 14 May, the number of new Covid-positive patients had shot up to 30.

    It's just one figure, and in normal times we might discount it as random variation. However these are times of alertness, and every flicker of the Covid dashboard needle triggers nervous anticipation of a possible spike.

    There is a delay between infection and symptoms, usually about five-to-seven days. So these cases would have been incubating since the week before - and possibly since the communal gatherings on VE Day, six days earlier.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52715571
  • 8 point gap on best PM question is hugely damaging for the Tories.

    Starmer will be even on that soon.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat

    And Nicola, Drakesford and Foster all asleep at the wheel as well

    No part of the UK acted any differently

    The enquiry will be interesting
    Lol@Yoons

    Absolute disgrace, Nicola made a statement about Scotland an hour before Boris, pure politicking!

    Also

    Nicola should have unilaterally locked down Scotland earlier!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    edited May 2020
    [deleted]
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    This whole thing relies upon the Guardian and Mirror actually reporting facts for once. Not usually a risk free assumption.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.


    Except.....if Dom goes....so, goes BoJo's authority on the cabinet...the two are intrinsically linked....

    I think BoJo is now fighting tonight for his own survival...he needs Dom to tough it out....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat

    And Nicola, Drakesford and Foster all asleep at the wheel as well

    No part of the UK acted any differently

    The enquiry will be interesting
    Lol@Yoons

    Absolute disgrace, Nicola made a statement about Scotland an hour before Boris, pure politicking!

    Also

    Nicola should have unilaterally locked down Scotland earlier!
    It's funny. They moan when the Scots do something different and they moan when the Scots do the same. Irrespective of the actual merits of the matters in hand.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_xP said:
    They may claim that call was about security, not covid19.
    They obfuscated. They said that neither Dom nor his Wife were called by police, but said it in a way that suggested it was none of Dom's immediate family.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    The cult of Cummings is strong on PB

    The revelation he went twice means he has to go

    And I admit I do not know much about him so not a cult follower

    Boris is more of a concern for me.

    He needs to sack him and step up to the plate

    I am losing patience
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Cummings brexit strategy was clearly masterful, but why does Boris need him now ?
    Brexit is done and he's a liability. Ironically if he goes the more hardcore brexiteers may hold more sway so a crash out becomes more likely perhaps at the margins - but he has to go, you can't have senior Gov't people undermining a central lockdown message in the middle of a pandemic. Every minute he's not sacked he saps the Gov'ts authority and capital.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Evens now.
    Flip-flopping favourites and a difference of opinion.

    Ladbrokes: 8/11 go; Evens stay.
    PP/Betfair: Evens go; 8/11 stay.
    PP/Betfair: 5/6 each of two.
    Ladbrokes: 4/6 go; 11/10 stay.
    Starsports: 4/6 stay; 11/10 go.

    Fast fingered punters can lock in a profit!
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited May 2020

    Here in the Flatlands it is a meh, I'm afraid. He'll probably have to go although I can think of several government advisors that should have gone in the past but didn't. For a lot worse than driving to Durham.

    What does annoy me is the rather frenzied hope that getting rid of him will stop Brexit in some way. It won't. We've already left.



    Is there one person on here who has said it will stop Brexit? (Which has already happened).

    Some "remainers" have suggested it might lead to an extension, others said it makes an extension less likely.

    You are getting annoyed by something you are imagining.
    Maybe not on here to be fair, although in some quarters I think there is a belief that extensions can continue indefinitely if only the government can be destabilised enough. There's definitely a Brexit Wars vibe here.

    I'm failing to get worked up by the action itself (at least, as it stands at the moment) but as I say he will have to go eventually. I've technically been breaking lock-down since day 1 but not in a way that endangered anyone, so provided he didn't expose anyone else to the virus then I couldn't condemn it without being hypocritical.

    I think the government made a mistake with being so prescriptive. Yes, shut venues where people mix and stop any large gatherings, but each family has their own circumstances that they may need to work around. They should have been allowed to make their own decisions.
    If he was breaking lockdown thats one thing, and I agree that adding a level of personal decision making there is correct. A significant proportion of the population have not followed all the lockdown rules. It would still be hypocritical but that would be a different level offence.

    But the problem is he broke quarantine. He thought the family was contagious and still thought the rules dont apply to him, that is just so different, it is dangerous and selfish.
    True, it is a different level of risk. IF he drove all the way in one go without stopping (which is certainly possible) then technically he was still in quarantine. But breaking down wouldn't have been terribly good. I don't know what his actual state of mind was or what his real reasons for doing it were, and I'm not sure we'll ever be totally sure about that.

    But, still, meh. There are many other, better, questions to be asking at the moment.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Feck, that's pretty rank for Davey considering he's not really been visible.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    Pulpstar said:

    Cummings brexit strategy was clearly masterful, but why does Boris need him now ?

    As well as providing all the intellectual muscle (such as it is), he is also the cabinet enforcer.

    They are shit scared of Dom. They know BoZo is a fuckwit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
    He could have spent years as head of UK National AI Research Centre.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    The sad thing is all of this distracts from the Sunday Times story which shows that if the government had locked down just days earlier than it did - perhaps if Boris had not been asleep at the wheel - then we would have saved tens of thousands of lives.

    Perhaps Cummingsgate *is* the dead cat

    And Nicola, Drakesford and Foster all asleep at the wheel as well

    No part of the UK acted any differently

    The enquiry will be interesting
    Lol@Yoons

    Absolute disgrace, Nicola made a statement about Scotland an hour before Boris, pure politicking!

    Also

    Nicola should have unilaterally locked down Scotland earlier!
    Your last sentence made my point for me.

    They collectively failed and I assume it will be the advice that will be the key
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_xP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cummings brexit strategy was clearly masterful, but why does Boris need him now ?

    As well as providing all the intellectual muscle (such as it is), he is also the cabinet enforcer.

    They are shit scared of Dom. They know BoZo is a fuckwit.
    Even if he doesn’t go this will damage his political capital.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    DougSeal said:

    They were also furious with the photo of the boy lying on the hospital floor ... for two days, and then they forgot about it. I remain utterly perplexed with the obsession with ephemera on here.
    Not ephemera. People are scared of Covid-19 so they are scared of carriers travelling with it. This is going to hurt you badly.
    Yes, ephemera. In 4 years' time Covid will be long gone one way or another, and the rights and wrongs of Cummings' going to Durham will be utterly irrelevant.
    Your sole response to everything is "Suck it up losers, we won, we can do what we like, nothing else matters, na na na". It's infantile.

    It's reality. Sorry that you're having a hard time accepting it. I have just as much right not to wet myself over a few bad headlines as you have to do so.
    We are discussing whether Cummings deserves to be sacked. As far as I can see nobody is arguing that this is going to be a game changer as far as the next election is concerned.

    If none of it matters because you have a huge majority why are you wasting most of the day banging out comments trying to defend him?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    Are you serious? The Tory lead is still in double digits after 10 years in power and in the middle of a pandemic. But by all means, please take the next election for granted. Underestimating Boris and Cummings has always worked out so well in the past.
    Still defending Cummings's wrongdoing?
    Cummings is the architect of Tory wet dreams. They will forgive him anything, he can do no wrong.
    If he went twice he has to go.
    If he had gone the first time, it would have been forgotten already. In my opinion, all he done is ruin his own reputation, the PM's reputation and most of the Cabinet's reputation.

    The longer he stays, the more damage he does. Perhaps, on reflection, it is a good thing. The populist remnant of what used to be Tory Party needs to go and be replaced by a proper centre right party.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Almost entirely pre Dom's travel itinerary being leaked?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They may claim that call was about security, not covid19.
    They obfuscated. They said that neither Dom nor his Wife were called by police, but said it in a way that suggested it was none of Dom's immediate family.
    I would like to know if either him or his wife ever tested positive for covid19.

    I am beginning to doubt it. Their statement does not say they were. If they had it why not mention it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Has anyone issued any sort of refutation of the witnesses yet?
    Ps. This explains a lot of Starmer's tactics since being elected. Broadly supportive but anxious to implant the idea they don't really know what they are doing. Out of sadness and concern, not anger.
    He knew about this when the Guardian and Mirror did.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837

    Here in the Flatlands it is a meh, I'm afraid. He'll probably have to go although I can think of several government advisors that should have gone in the past but didn't. For a lot worse than driving to Durham.

    What does annoy me is the rather frenzied hope that getting rid of him will stop Brexit in some way. It won't. We've already left.



    Is there one person on here who has said it will stop Brexit? (Which has already happened).

    Some "remainers" have suggested it might lead to an extension, others said it makes an extension less likely.

    You are getting annoyed by something you are imagining.
    Maybe not on here to be fair, although in some quarters I think there is a belief that extensions can continue indefinitely if only the government can be destabilised enough. There's definitely a Brexit Wars vibe here.

    I'm failing to get worked up by the action itself (at least, as it stands at the moment) but as I say he will have to go eventually. I've technically been breaking lock-down since day 1 but not in a way that endangered anyone, so provided he didn't expose anyone else to the virus then I couldn't condemn it without being hypocritical.

    I think the government made a mistake with being so prescriptive. Yes, shut venues where people mix and stop any large gatherings, but each family has their own circumstances that they may need to work around. They should have been allowed to make their own decisions.
    If he was breaking lockdown thats one thing, and I agree that adding a level of personal decision making there is correct. A significant proportion of the population have not followed all the lockdown rules. It would still be hypocritical but that would be a different level offence.

    But the problem is he broke quarantine. He thought the family was contagious and still thought the rules dont apply to him, that is just so different, it is dangerous and selfish.
    True, it is a different level of risk. IF he drove all the way in one go without stopping (which is certainly possible) then technically he was still in quarantine. But breaking down wouldn't have been terribly good. I don't know what his actual state of mind was or what his real reasons for doing it were, and I'm not sure we'll ever be totally sure about that.

    But, still, meh. There are many other, better, questions to be asking at the moment.
    Driving 250 miles without a stop when ill is reckless driving.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    I'm just not sure the patience is running out - an awful lot of people who I speak to were worried about the 1st June date. I think the studied ambiguity of the 'stay alert' guidance allows both lockdowners and easers some latitude as to their own activities. Trains are still VERY quiet. I suspect airports etc are too.

    My fear is as soon as shops start reopening, an attempt to try and return to normality won't be far behind.
    I agree with you. The rate of infections is still too high to meet even the government's tests for significantly easing the lockdown, and is also too high for the track and trace system (even if it were to work well) to capture all outbreaks. Infections are now significantly lower in most other European countries than here.

    Most people I know, including those in their 20s and 30s, are still quite fearful, and although many have started meeting up with individual friends they are avoiding group activities of all sorts; they wouldn't yet go to the pubs even if they were open. The idea that the young have become blase about the virus doesn't seem to me to be accurate.
  • When did a Labour leader last lead on best PM?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
    I though straight away that it was blindingly obvious Cummings had to go, and politically the smart thing would have been to sack him immediately.

    Instead we've had 24 hours of almost the whole Cabinet at best demeaning themselves, and at worst lying to us.

    Put aside the rights and wrongs of what Cummings has done but politically this is amateurish. A Cabinet of clowns, led by a man who is a lying lazy bluffer, advised by someone who plainly hasn't even tried to abide by the rules.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
    He could have spent years as head of UK National AI Research Centre.
    AI? Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Insemination.? :open_mouth:
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited May 2020
    Starmer from 26 point Tory lead to 12 points is impressive
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Feck, that's pretty rank for Davey considering he's not really been visible.
    I must admit I'm a Lib Dem member and even I have neither a favourable nor unfavourable opinion of him as Lib Dem leader.

    Likewise on Farage as leader of the Brexit Party. I honestly assumed he'd stepped down. What is he doing there? Job's done.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    dixiedean said:

    Has anyone issued any sort of refutation of the witnesses yet?
    Ps. This explains a lot of Starmer's tactics since being elected. Broadly supportive but anxious to implant the idea they don't really know what they are doing. Out of sadness and concern, not anger.
    He knew about this when the Guardian and Mirror did.

    I suspect, but cannot prove, that the Mirror and the Guardian have been verifying their sources for the last few weeks to strengthen this witness evidence.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    If the government are wise they should sack him. If they don’t , the one rule for them and one for the rest of us will be a lens through which this period is remembered.

    The tacit endorsement of double standards is a heavy price to save an advisor.

    Dom could resign and probably come back later. Mandleson did it twice.

    Mandelson was a member of the Labour Party, a loyal member for decades, whose grandfather had been Deputy Prime Minister and was popular with the leadership. He was also, whatever his faults, a talented and successful politician.

    Cummings is a political maverick whom everyone other than Johnson despises, a blogger with highfaluting but wildly inaccurate ideas about government and a failed think tank operator.

    I honestly don’t see too many parallels.
    The crazy thing is, if Cummings had tendered his resignation immediately he could claim to have fallen on his sword and then been brought back in a few months. Doing it this way tarnishes him past redemption.
    Yup, an immediate resignation but still using the Alpha Dad Defence at the same time would have left him fairly spotless and easily re-hireable later.
    He could have spent years as head of UK National AI Research Centre.
    AI? Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Insemination.? :open_mouth:
    No, A1, the road from London to Durham.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    That's what they said about Westland and a hundred other political scandals.

    The reality is that major electoral shifts happen only very rarely.
    Matthew Parris said Westland marked the passing of Maggie's noon, though many more years in power awaited her. I have to say this has a similar feel to it: the best bits for Boris may have already gone.
    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
    Maggie had political talent. Boris has bluster.

    If Boris does not get his act together he will be doing well to survive another 4.5 months.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Scott_xP said:
    I do believe that the UK is going to have about the worst outcome of this pandemic anywhere in Europe and I don't think Boris's government is going to be able to escape the consequences of that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited May 2020

    When did a Labour leader last lead on best PM?

    Jeremy Corbyn, June 2017, with YouGov.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Scott_xP said:
    Sorry, I couldn't care less about what Cummings did. I didn't about Ferguson or Calderwood. Yes, they are hypocrites. But how many of us can say that we are not at some point or another?
This discussion has been closed.