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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Downing Street should be worry about the first Cummings pollin

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,452
    DougSeal said:

    dixiedean said:

    Has anyone issued any sort of refutation of the witnesses yet?
    Ps. This explains a lot of Starmer's tactics since being elected. Broadly supportive but anxious to implant the idea they don't really know what they are doing. Out of sadness and concern, not anger.
    He knew about this when the Guardian and Mirror did.

    I suspect, but cannot prove, that the Mirror and the Guardian have been verifying their sources for the last few weeks to strengthen this witness evidence.
    They have played him beautifully today. They set an elephant trap and he egotistically walked straight into it. Like most civil servants, he despised them and they outsmarted him.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,295
    Quincel said:

    Feck, that's pretty rank for Davey considering he's not really been visible.
    I must admit I'm a Lib Dem member and even I have neither a favourable nor unfavourable opinion of him as Lib Dem leader.

    Likewise on Farage as leader of the Brexit Party. I honestly assumed he'd stepped down. What is he doing there? Job's done.
    I was assured that Davey and Farage would be benefiting from not being in government :)

    Tbf Davey was on C4 News earlier and was quite restrained & statesmanlike, but maybe that corner of the market has been taken over currently.
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    These headlines are of a Government on its last legs, not that just got elected. 2024 will be fun.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
    He isn't actually - this govt. have cared less about the dead tree press than any administration in my lifetime. May, Brown, Blair - all seemed absolutely obsessed. Cameron was better at seeing the difference between the papers and the people, but his govt were far from immune to it.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,902
    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    I know what Tony Blair would have done

    Presumably invaded Iraq as a distraction
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,452
    Scott_xP said:
    Listening to Classic FM, the ads were dominated by government announcements on the importance of staying at home, respecting quarantine, not taking unnecessary journeys etc.

    Then the news bulletins were headlined by Cummings ignoring all that.

    This will not have played well with the overwhelmingly Tory listeners.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,212
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    If Beth Rigby's report earlier this evening is accurate, doesn't this mean that Cummings in fact made not two but at least THREE separate visits to Durham during the lockdown period ... how could he possibly have expected to keep all three such visits under wraps?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,452
    Surely that is a joke?

    If not, then Johnson’s toast. He’s now accused the press of lying, when Cummings has essentially admitted their stories are true.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    One of David Cameron's top aides ended up in prison and PB was full of comments about how that meant Dave would lose the 2015 election if he hadn't be replaced beforehand.

    If the gag's not been already been made I think the resignation letter by Mr Cummings will be about 20,000 words long.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    "... you are not to infer from this anything other than that they consider the evidence against them so flimsy that it was scarcely worth their while to rise from their seats and waste their breath denying these ludicrous charges."
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CHB is this the most exciting day of your life?! 😄
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,024
    You Are Fake News defence...
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    Banterman said:

    This whole thing relies upon the Guardian and Mirror actually reporting facts for once. Not usually a risk free assumption.

    Ever heard the expression about flogging a dead horse? I'd give it up before you embarrass yourself any further.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208
    ydoethur said:

    Surely that is a joke?

    If not, then Johnson’s toast. He’s now accused the press of lying, when Cummings has essentially admitted their stories are true.
    Where has Cummings admitted the return to Durham was true?
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    :D:D:D

    Are they on drugs? Or are they more terminally stupid than any of us believed.

    Or is Cummings issuing his own denials about his own behaviour?

    WTF is going on????
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
    He isn't actually - this govt. have cared less about the dead tree press than any administration in my lifetime. May, Brown, Blair - all seemed absolutely obsessed. Cameron was better at seeing the difference between the papers and the people, but his govt were far from immune to it.
    If by "cared less" you mean "try to pretend they do not exist" then you may be right. Sadly for Boris et al, ignoring the Press and Media does not make them go away...
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Inaccurate is what you call a story when you would like to say that it is false, but you can't because it isn't.
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    I love that this falls tantalisingly short of actually saying Cummings did not visit Durham after 14 April. Because, of course, he did.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,024
    "Stream of false allegations"...
    Do they think there is more to come?
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,282
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Surely that is a joke?

    If not, then Johnson’s toast. He’s now accused the press of lying, when Cummings has essentially admitted their stories are true.
    Where has Cummings admitted the return to Durham was true?
    It’s not been denied.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    If Beth Rigby's report earlier this evening is accurate, doesn't this mean that Cummings in fact made not two but at least THREE separate visits to Durham during the lockdown period ... how could he possibly have expected to keep all three such visits under wraps?

    Apparently they never happened. The Press woke up to find Cummings in the shower. It was all a dream..... :open_mouth:
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142

    One of David Cameron's top aides ended up in prison and PB was full of comments about how that meant Dave would lose the 2015 election if he hadn't be replaced beforehand.

    If the gag's not been already been made I think the resignation letter by Mr Cummings will be about 20,000 words long.

    Which Cameron aide was that ?

    That I've totally forgotten about it shows that it didn't turn out to be as important as was claimed at the time.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m not sure that’s going to get rid of the matter.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,556
    Scott_xP said:
    It has to be admitted that Piers Morgan is having a good war.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
    He isn't actually - this govt. have cared less about the dead tree press than any administration in my lifetime. May, Brown, Blair - all seemed absolutely obsessed. Cameron was better at seeing the difference between the papers and the people, but his govt were far from immune to it.
    If by "cared less" you mean "try to pretend they do not exist" then you may be right. Sadly for Boris et al, ignoring the Press and Media does not make them go away...
    Newspapers don't vote - and increasingly they don't change reader's perceptions, either.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    edited May 2020

    I love that this falls tantalisingly short of actually saying Cummings did not visit Durham after 14 April. Because, of course, he did.
    This is going to be some sort of stupid "he can't have returned because he never left" nonsense.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,902

    If Beth Rigby's report earlier this evening is accurate, doesn't this mean that Cummings in fact made not two but at least THREE separate visits to Durham during the lockdown period ... how could he possibly have expected to keep all three such visits under wraps?

    Does anyone bid 4!!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,452
    edited May 2020
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Surely that is a joke?

    If not, then Johnson’s toast. He’s now accused the press of lying, when Cummings has essentially admitted their stories are true.
    Where has Cummings admitted the return to Durham was true?
    That’s not what I was thinking of. They are claiming today’s stories were inaccurate. Cummings has admitted they were accurate, although he disputed the interpretation placed on them.

    Bluntly, the only grounds on which it could be claimed they were ‘inaccurate’ is if it had been shown he stayed in London.

    Of course, their further claims are almost certainly false as well. But that almost becomes irrelevant if they are going down the Trumpian path.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, it's war!

    If the Guardian / Mirror happen to be wrong about this...
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So, what and when did Boris Johnson know?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Mortimer said:

    Ave_it said:

    Actually I am not really bothered by this Dom thing or whether he stays or goes.

    What is really important is that Boris next week delivers substantive progress on releasing the lockdown from 1 June ie as a minimum
    - enables all non essential retail to open
    - gets the schools open
    - allows families to meet without restriction.

    If we don't get that then the support for the government will really start to fall away

    If you remember when we were predicting what the announcement would be earlier this month, I basically got it bang on. Little change, garden centres, tips etc.

    Well, I'm afraid I don't see the 1st June deadline being met. This big serological study suggesting still over 100k infections was the clincher for me - just can't see how opening up non essential retail, schools or reducing social distancing is the right thing for now.

    Mid June - maybe.
    Agreed it may not be 1 June but the public's patience and tolerance is running out. Apart from what appears to be a substantial proportion of the population who appear to be content to sit at home and stay on furlough forever.

    Some progress on the track and trace would be helpful as a proper system would help with easing restrictions.

    But basically everything is taking too long.
    I'm just not sure the patience is running out - an awful lot of people who I speak to were worried about the 1st June date. I think the studied ambiguity of the 'stay alert' guidance allows both lockdowners and easers some latitude as to their own activities. Trains are still VERY quiet. I suspect airports etc are too.

    My fear is as soon as shops start reopening, an attempt to try and return to normality won't be far behind.
    I agree with you. The rate of infections is still too high to meet even the government's tests for significantly easing the lockdown, and is also too high for the track and trace system (even if it were to work well) to capture all outbreaks. Infections are now significantly lower in most other European countries than here.

    Most people I know, including those in their 20s and 30s, are still quite fearful, and although many have started meeting up with individual friends they are avoiding group activities of all sorts; they wouldn't yet go to the pubs even if they were open. The idea that the young have become blase about the virus doesn't seem to me to be accurate.
    It depends a great deal on who is still getting infected and what the effect is.

    If its people in low risk groups and they're not getting hit too hard then that's helping to build herd immunity.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,556

    One of David Cameron's top aides ended up in prison and PB was full of comments about how that meant Dave would lose the 2015 election if he hadn't be replaced beforehand.

    If the gag's not been already been made I think the resignation letter by Mr Cummings will be about 20,000 words long.

    Which Cameron aide was that ?

    That I've totally forgotten about it shows that it didn't turn out to be as important as was claimed at the time.
    Andy Coulson. The aide who warned David Cameron against employing Dominic Cummings.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,282
    He has to stay! Everyone agrees - please let this man stay as a constant reminder to voters of the attitudes of those that govern them.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,347

    Ave_it said:

    CHB is this the most exciting day of your life?! 😄
    Sadly, yes :(
    When 'your' 5th May 1997 comes around (which if today is anything to go by might be sooner than you thought) that will be a much, much better day.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,282
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
    He isn't actually - this govt. have cared less about the dead tree press than any administration in my lifetime. May, Brown, Blair - all seemed absolutely obsessed. Cameron was better at seeing the difference between the papers and the people, but his govt were far from immune to it.
    If by "cared less" you mean "try to pretend they do not exist" then you may be right. Sadly for Boris et al, ignoring the Press and Media does not make them go away...
    Newspapers don't vote - and increasingly they don't change reader's perceptions, either.
    Social media does and that ain’t looking great for them either
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,452

    One of David Cameron's top aides ended up in prison and PB was full of comments about how that meant Dave would lose the 2015 election if he hadn't be replaced beforehand.

    If the gag's not been already been made I think the resignation letter by Mr Cummings will be about 20,000 words long.

    Which Cameron aide was that ?

    That I've totally forgotten about it shows that it didn't turn out to be as important as was claimed at the time.
    Andy Coulson. Put in the slammer for perjury in the Tommy Sheridan trial as I recall.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    That's what they said about Westland and a hundred other political scandals.

    The reality is that major electoral shifts happen only very rarely.
    Matthew Parris said Westland marked the passing of Maggie's noon, though many more years in power awaited her. I have to say this has a similar feel to it: the best bits for Boris may have already gone.
    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
    Maggie had political talent. Boris has bluster.

    If Boris does not get his act together he will be doing well to survive another 4.5 months.
    Different eras require different skillsets.

    This is the era of bluster.
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    glw said:

    I love that this falls tantalisingly short of actually saying Cummings did not visit Durham after 14 April. Because, of course, he did.
    This is going to be some sort of stupid "he can't have returned because he never left" nonsense.
    "The allegation that I was cavorting in a seedy sex club in Luton on 13th November, snorting cocaine from a prostitute's breasts while wearing a blue mankini that left nothing to the imagination is inaccurate" means "it was actually mauve".
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,452

    I’m not sure that’s going to get rid of the matter.

    THis is the equivalent of throwing a large quantity of petrol on a fire and following it up with about half a ton of dynamite.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    These headlines are of a Government on its last legs, not that just got elected. 2024 will be fun.

    Lol - you couldn't successfully predict an election a week into the future, and now you're calling one 4 years away?

    Brave.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    IshmaelZ said:

    Inaccurate is what you call a story when you would like to say that it is false, but you can't because it isn't.
    Isn't that the line Chris Huhne took?
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
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    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,809
    If Downing Street are saying Dom didn't go back for a 2nd time, and it turns out to be true, then that's a very good defence against this. If however he really did, then WTF is Johnson on?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,347

    If Beth Rigby's report earlier this evening is accurate, doesn't this mean that Cummings in fact made not two but at least THREE separate visits to Durham during the lockdown period ... how could he possibly have expected to keep all three such visits under wraps?

    Apparently they never happened. The Press woke up to find Cummings in the shower. It was all a dream..... :open_mouth:
    That is quite a repulsive image you have conjured up, unless he showers fully attired.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142

    So, what and when did Boris Johnson know?

    Would Cummings be required to notify the security services of his location / movements ?
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    This thread MUST resign!

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142
    ydoethur said:

    One of David Cameron's top aides ended up in prison and PB was full of comments about how that meant Dave would lose the 2015 election if he hadn't be replaced beforehand.

    If the gag's not been already been made I think the resignation letter by Mr Cummings will be about 20,000 words long.

    Which Cameron aide was that ?

    That I've totally forgotten about it shows that it didn't turn out to be as important as was claimed at the time.
    Andy Coulson. Put in the slammer for perjury in the Tommy Sheridan trial as I recall.
    That's right I remember now, vaguely.

    How did I ever forget tim's thousands of comments about him.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited May 2020

    If Beth Rigby's report earlier this evening is accurate, doesn't this mean that Cummings in fact made not two but at least THREE separate visits to Durham during the lockdown period ... how could he possibly have expected to keep all three such visits under wraps?

    Apparently they never happened. The Press woke up to find Cummings in the shower. It was all a dream..... :open_mouth:
    That is quite a repulsive image you have conjured up, unless he showers fully attired.
    I blame the Ewings .... ;)

    Dom is no Bobby Ewing. Bobby was yummy ;)
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,902

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    That's what they said about Westland and a hundred other political scandals.

    The reality is that major electoral shifts happen only very rarely.
    Matthew Parris said Westland marked the passing of Maggie's noon, though many more years in power awaited her. I have to say this has a similar feel to it: the best bits for Boris may have already gone.
    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
    Maggie had political talent. Boris has bluster.

    If Boris does not get his act together he will be doing well to survive another 4.5 months.
    Different eras require different skillsets.

    This is the era of bluster.
    If that were true Starmers fooked

    I think todays antics will drive more people away from bluster.

    Next VI taken entirely after tonight should show a massive narrowing IMO

    I go for an 8 pt Tory lead
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The fieldwork predates the Cummings affair. The Tory lead could very well now be in single figures.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,771
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Boris is afraid of the Press. All his bluster is just that. He was a rubbish reporter and he is proving to be a cr*p PM. His first term as London Mayor seems to have been the pinnacle of his success.
    He isn't actually - this govt. have cared less about the dead tree press than any administration in my lifetime. May, Brown, Blair - all seemed absolutely obsessed. Cameron was better at seeing the difference between the papers and the people, but his govt were far from immune to it.
    They've just won an election. They have an 80-seat majority. Why don't they just ignore the press and get on with their day job: running the country using scientific advice to deal with a difficult, unprecedented situation? It's obviously a big risk to predict an event 4 years hence, but I'm fairly confident that by May 2024 none of this will matter, no-one will remember it and not a single vote will have changed because of it. This doesn't mean I'm predicting a nailed-on Tory majority, only that the election will depend on much else to transpire over the next 4 years.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,401

    These headlines are of a Government on its last legs, not that just got elected. 2024 will be fun.

    Lol - you couldn't successfully predict an election a week into the future, and now you're calling one 4 years away?

    Brave.
    As much as I am furious over this unnecessary own goal it will not define the next GE

    The way out of the coming economic wastelands will define the government and that is anyone's guess
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369

    I'm not even sure why Tories are desperate to support Dom.

    He's not even a Tory.

    People underestimate the bond between politicians and close associates who they trust (cf. advisers to Blair, May and Corbyn who stayed on long after they were widely disliked by colleagues). Dogged loyalty lasts a long time.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,142

    December 2019: 80 seat majority.

    May 2020: Still 80 seats, but now a lame duck administration waiting for the public to kick them out.

    That's what they said about Westland and a hundred other political scandals.

    The reality is that major electoral shifts happen only very rarely.
    Matthew Parris said Westland marked the passing of Maggie's noon, though many more years in power awaited her. I have to say this has a similar feel to it: the best bits for Boris may have already gone.
    Well Thatcher had another 4.5 years as PM together with another GE victory.

    I'm suspect Boris would not decline that.
    Maggie had political talent. Boris has bluster.

    If Boris does not get his act together he will be doing well to survive another 4.5 months.
    Different eras require different skillsets.

    This is the era of bluster.
    If that were true Starmers fooked

    I think todays antics will drive more people away from bluster.

    Next VI taken entirely after tonight should show a massive narrowing IMO

    I go for an 8 pt Tory lead
    That's certainly possible.

    But I think this is still the era of bluster - although people might prefer the bluster of someone else.

    Because I don't think people want to face reality about the unsustainability of much of our lifestyles and economics.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,347

    If Beth Rigby's report earlier this evening is accurate, doesn't this mean that Cummings in fact made not two but at least THREE separate visits to Durham during the lockdown period ... how could he possibly have expected to keep all three such visits under wraps?

    Apparently they never happened. The Press woke up to find Cummings in the shower. It was all a dream..... :open_mouth:
    That is quite a repulsive image you have conjured up, unless he showers fully attired.
    I blame the Ewings .... ;)

    Dom is no Bobby Ewing. Bobby was yummy ;)
    I remember Dallas well. I also remember the Simpsons. Cummings is more Mr Burns than Bobby Ewing.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited May 2020
    MrEd said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Sorry, I couldn't care less about what Cummings did. I didn't about Ferguson or Calderwood. Yes, they are hypocrites. But how many of us can say that we are not at some point or another?
    Mate, I haven't been further than 100ft from my house since lockdown started.

    "Ooooooh we're all hypocrites" as a defence can fuck the right off
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sensational, my only regret is not waiting till now to put my money on Big Dom roughing it out.

    Go for it lads, give it laldy.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,378
    justin124 said:

    The fieldwork predates the Cummings affair. The Tory lead could very well now be in single figures.
    But it might not... you speculate all.the time..
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,378

    justin124 said:

    The fieldwork predates the Cummings affair. The Tory lead could very well now be in single figures.
    But it might not... you speculate all.the time..
    .. and you predicted a hung parliament too iirc...
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924

    Scott_xP said:
    Oh boy, it's war!

    If the Guardian / Mirror happen to be wrong about this...
    Cummings has admitted he broke quarantine and travelled to Durham. How on earth can they be wrong?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,230
    Jonathan said:

    Where is Boris? Why is he investing so much scarce political capital in Dom? They risk turning this into a bigger thing.

    Is it pride or fear about Dom’s revenge?

    Jonathan said:

    The problem this government faces is that their stock of political capital is unlikely to be replenished for a very long time. The economic picture will not afford many opportunities for good news. So why spend a cent of it defending Dom?

    I don’t get it, especially when he’s just an advisor whose big political project is now superseded by events.

    Disposable.

    This is not about protecting Cummings is my guess. It’s about protecting Boris.

    What did Boris know about the trip up to the NE with sick wife and child and when did he know it?

    My guess is that Boris either knew, approved or turned a blind eye to the 1st NE visit.

    Did he know about all the other trips, though?
This discussion has been closed.