politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has no
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Delusional.philiph said:
No, self employment is never a real job.roserees64 said:Are jobs that depend on being'self employed'real jobs ? They obviously remove people from the unemployment list but many are not sustainable.I wish that there was a real recovery but only the top 1% are better off.
It is the top 0.5% that get all the benefit, get real.0 -
"The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know"
That makes sense. So the question becomes will they fall back or take the plunge?
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I rather think the excellent philiph is being sarcastic.ToryJim said:Delusional.
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Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained. 0 -
Would I do that?Richard_Nabavi said:
I rather think the excellent philiph is being sarcastic.ToryJim said:Delusional.
And thanks for the excellent badge!0 -
Ah, oops.Richard_Nabavi said:
I rather think the excellent philiph is being sarcastic.ToryJim said:Delusional.
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Of there's 14 of them daily from Dan HodgesSquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained. 0 -
No problem from me, I'm sure I've had worse than delusional thrown at me!ToryJim said:
Ah, oops.Richard_Nabavi said:
I rather think the excellent philiph is being sarcastic.ToryJim said:Delusional.
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What they're founders want and what their voters want aren't necessarily the same thing.anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership0 -
If they win the Euros on 25% is that a clear vote to leave the EU?anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership0 -
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.0 -
Self-employed used to be some of the best jobs. Not now obviously.roserees64 said:Are jobs that depend on being'self employed'real jobs ? They obviously remove people from the unemployment list but many are not sustainable.I wish that there was a real recovery but only the top 1% are better off.
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Self employment like most things factors in supply and demand. The explosion in self employment (this generation's Incapacity Benefit - call yourself this, here's your benefits payment not called unemployment) creates supply of services of some description, but with economic growth not impacting most people there isn't the cash demand to pay for the services being offered.roserees64 said:Are jobs that depend on being'self employed'real jobs ? They obviously remove people from the unemployment list but many are not sustainable.I wish that there was a real recovery but only the top 1% are better off.
I know several people who have officially become self employed over the last couple of years having failed to find a job (and here on Teesside the applicant per job rate is still 600). The best any of them are managing is 10 hours a week of actual paid work, none of them consider their "business" to be viable, but its the only way to stay sane and keep the DWP stazi off your back.0 -
@roserees64
Of course self employment is a real job, a friend has recently taken delivery of a new small van and an increase in wages.
Unfortunately you sometimes have to work, but as you are your own CEO, time management, fiscal arrangements, and creative accountancy mean that a lot of the duller stuff can be avoided,
All this with the governments blessing, and tax payers money. Just like the real thing but on a smaller scale.
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The EU gave birth to UKIP, but it has recently gone through puberty due to things which aren't primarily EU-focused. It's voter base is all eurosceptics, but not all about euroscepticism - increasingly not so, indeed.Tykejohnno said:
Your forgetting the rise of the EU state,that gave birth to ukip.Quincel said:
'that people dislike immigrants even more than usual'Tykejohnno said:Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
'Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants'
You really believe this ?
I do believe that, yes. Perhaps I'd phrase it as immigration instead of immigrants personally, but the public have always believed immigration was too high (going back decades) and the salience of this issue is at pretty much record highs (unlike EU salience, btw). So I do believe the rise of UKIP both correlates and is linked with the rise of anti-immigration sentiment.0 -
On 25% - It's a clear vote that the other parties are crap ;-)Neil said:
If they win the Euros on 25% is that a clear vote to leave the EU?anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
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You could do a cheekily ironic one of suggesting campaign songs for the three partiesTheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
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Betfair maj
Lab 2.92
Con 3.85
crossover on the horizon?0 -
I wouldn't be certain that all UKIP voters are eurosceptic given the party is essentially the stop the world I want to get off party.Quincel said:
The EU gave birth to UKIP, but it has recently gone through puberty due to things which aren't primarily EU-focused. It's voter base is all eurosceptics, but not all about euroscepticism - increasingly not so, indeed.Tykejohnno said:
Your forgetting the rise of the EU state,that gave birth to ukip.Quincel said:
'that people dislike immigrants even more than usual'Tykejohnno said:Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
'Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants'
You really believe this ?
I do believe that, yes. Perhaps I'd phrase it as immigration instead of immigrants personally, but the public have always believed immigration was too high (going back decades) and the salience of this issue is at pretty much record highs (unlike EU salience, btw). So I do believe the rise of UKIP both correlates and is linked with the rise of anti-immigration sentiment.
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I can't remember the details, but research in Revolt on the Right and at EPOP 2013 had a fairly clear message that being eurosceptic was still a necessary (if not sufficient) condition of UKIP support in the main. I appreciate that's not a particularly good answer in terms of convincing anyone else.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't be certain that all UKIP voters are eurosceptic given the party is essentially the stop the world I want to get off party.Quincel said:
The EU gave birth to UKIP, but it has recently gone through puberty due to things which aren't primarily EU-focused. It's voter base is all eurosceptics, but not all about euroscepticism - increasingly not so, indeed.Tykejohnno said:
Your forgetting the rise of the EU state,that gave birth to ukip.Quincel said:
'that people dislike immigrants even more than usual'Tykejohnno said:Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
'Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants'
You really believe this ?
I do believe that, yes. Perhaps I'd phrase it as immigration instead of immigrants personally, but the public have always believed immigration was too high (going back decades) and the salience of this issue is at pretty much record highs (unlike EU salience, btw). So I do believe the rise of UKIP both correlates and is linked with the rise of anti-immigration sentiment.0 -
That's one of my emergency "I'm busy at work and need to publish a pre-prepared* thread"ToryJim said:
You could do a cheekily ironic one of suggesting campaign songs for the three partiesTheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
*I'm on a mission to wind up Morris Dancer today0 -
That could be the must have Christmas toy 2014, a wind up Morris Dancer!TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one of my emergency "I'm busy at work and need to publish a pre-prepared* thread"ToryJim said:
You could do a cheekily ironic one of suggesting campaign songs for the three partiesTheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
*I'm on a mission to wind up Morris Dancer today0 -
Dunno, but it makes the 4.5 on Con retaining Broxtowe, or the 6.0 on Sherwood, look pretty silly. It's hard to see how Con Maj 3.85 (or even the 4.0 from Ladbrokes) is compatible with the constituency bets.RodCrosby said:Betfair maj
Lab 2.92
Con 3.85
crossover on the horizon?0 -
I wouldn't be certain that all tory voters are eurosceptic given the party is essentially the stop the world I want to get off party
Corrected it for you ;-)
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*Cough* Sir Thomas Beecham *Cough*philiph said:
That could be the must have Christmas toy 2014, a wind up Morris Dancer!TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one of my emergency "I'm busy at work and need to publish a pre-prepared* thread"ToryJim said:
You could do a cheekily ironic one of suggesting campaign songs for the three partiesTheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
*I'm on a mission to wind up Morris Dancer today0 -
Complete with enormo-haddock accessory.philiph said:
That could be the must have Christmas toy 2014, a wind up Morris Dancer!TheScreamingEagles said:
That's one of my emergency "I'm busy at work and need to publish a pre-prepared* thread"ToryJim said:
You could do a cheekily ironic one of suggesting campaign songs for the three partiesTheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
*I'm on a mission to wind up Morris Dancer today0 -
Actually, need to add "don't vote" to the options so i guess maybe: fall back / don't vote / take the plunge might be 30 / 40 / 30 or the vicinity.MrJones said:0 -
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These are the EU Parliament elections. The campaign began with two hour long televised debates on the merits of EU membership. Both those debates were won by UKIP/Mr Farage.Quincel said:
What they're founders want and what their voters want aren't necessarily the same thing.anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
UKIP's message has consistently been that the UK would be better off outside the EU. On 22nd May those choosing to vote for UKIP will be agreeing with that aim.
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That's one of my emergency "I'm busy at work and need to publish a pre-prepared* thread"
*I'm on a mission to wind up Morris Dancer today
That could be the must have Christmas toy 2014, a wind up Morris Dancer!
*Cough* Sir Thomas Beecham *Cough*
This Sir Thomas?
During a rehearsal, conductor Sir Thomas Beecham, who died 40 years ago, thought that his female soloist was playing less than adequately on her fine Italian cello. He stopped the orchestra and declared: "Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable of giving pleasure to thousands, and all you can do is scratch it!" Once he described the sound of the harpsichord as "two skeletons copulating on a tin roof"; on another occasion he declared that "the British may not like music, but they absolutely love the noise it makes".
But I'm too dumb to get the connection.0 -
Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
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In that it is the only poll the Nats are paying attention to.CarlottaVance said:
Last gasp of a desperate rabble.0 -
@philiph
When Sir Thomas Beecham said "in this life try everything once, except incest and morris dancing" he may have inadvertently hit on something
Yes, that Sir Thomas Beecham
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/emmahartley/8218867/Morris_dancing_is_less_sexy_than_incest/0 -
Thanks for the education. He obviously enjoyed having his words remembered!TheScreamingEagles said:@philiph
When Sir Thomas Beecham said "in this life try everything once, except incest and morris dancing" he may have inadvertently hit on something
Yes, that Sir Thomas Beecham
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/emmahartley/8218867/Morris_dancing_is_less_sexy_than_incest/0 -
The polls would have said Farage had won if they'd both stood there in silence like Trappist monks. The debates weren't designed to be illuminating for the public or edifying for the participants.anotherDave said:
These are the EU Parliament elections. The campaign began with two hour long debates on the merits of EU membership. Both those debates were won by UKIP/Mr Farage.Quincel said:
What they're founders want and what their voters want aren't necessarily the same thing.anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
UKIP's message has consistently been that the UK would be better off outside the EU. On 22nd May those choosing to vote for UKIP will be agreeing with that aim.
0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Thursday's Scotsman front page - "Osborne: ‘Yes’ vote would kill off Scottish banknotes" #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/EwRmywO2Bq
0 -
My pleasure, I love educating PBers.philiph said:
Thanks for the education. He obviously enjoyed having his words remembered!TheScreamingEagles said:@philiph
When Sir Thomas Beecham said "in this life try everything once, except incest and morris dancing" he may have inadvertently hit on something
Yes, that Sir Thomas Beecham
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/emmahartley/8218867/Morris_dancing_is_less_sexy_than_incest/0 -
Midterm elections are classic protest vote times, and UKIP's surge since 2010 has clearly been fed by becoming the protest vote party.anotherDave said:
These are the EU Parliament elections. The campaign began with two hour long televised debates on the merits of EU membership. Both those debates were won by UKIP/Mr Farage.Quincel said:
What they're founders want and what their voters want aren't necessarily the same thing.anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
UKIP's message has consistently been that the UK would be better off outside the EU. On 22nd May those choosing to vote for UKIP will be agreeing with that aim.0 -
I expect they'll complain if HMG spends money denying access to something that does exist when they spend money denying access to something that doesn't exist.....TGOHF said:
In that it is the only poll the Nats are paying attention to.CarlottaVance said:
Last gasp of a desperate rabble.
0 -
A potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.0
-
I've always thought of him as more Murdoch, the crazy, wacky one. Cameron obviously Face given his smug self-satisfaction. But perhaps Ed is the man with a plan, he'll be there on election night with a cigar in his mouth chewing the scenery.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.0 -
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
0 -
That's very good odds on Sherwood.Richard_Nabavi said:
Dunno, but it makes the 4.5 on Con retaining Broxtowe, or the 6.0 on Sherwood, look pretty silly. It's hard to see how Con Maj 3.85 (or even the 4.0 from Ladbrokes) is compatible with the constituency bets.RodCrosby said:Betfair maj
Lab 2.92
Con 3.85
crossover on the horizon?
The Labour vote there is very traditional wwc whereas much of the Conservative vote is affluent commuter.
Its the sort of constituency where UKIP will hurt Labour more than the Conservatives.
0 -
Different Hannibal, but on the A-TeamFrankBooth said:
I've always thought of him as more Murdoch, the crazy, wacky one. Cameron obviously Face given his smug self-satisfaction. But perhaps Ed is the man with a plan, he'll be there on election night with a cigar in his mouth chewing the scenery.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
I wouldn't ban them, I just think it boils politics down to who is up or down which is crap. Everything is seen through the prism of whether it will lead to a poll bounce or not. I just think fewer polls might make analysis a bit better and more focused on the merits of the announcement etc rather than it's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
Would you ban them, do you think they're bad business for those commissioning them or do you think they're misleading for those reading and interpreting them?ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
Templeton Peck = Ed Balls
BA = John Prescott
Murdoch = Gordon Brown
But even this Hannibal was crap, like his namesake, spent over a decade being rubbish and blamed for a crime he didn't commit.
But who will be Hunt Stockwell?
0 -
If Cameron wins a majority, holds a referendum, we leave the EU... What would the conservative immigration policy be?0
-
Ah, Scouse humour... the best...philiph said:
This Sir Thomas?
During a rehearsal, conductor Sir Thomas Beecham, who died 40 years ago, thought that his female soloist was playing less than adequately on her fine Italian cello. He stopped the orchestra and declared: "Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable of giving pleasure to thousands, and all you can do is scratch it!" Once he described the sound of the harpsichord as "two skeletons copulating on a tin roof"; on another occasion he declared that "the British may not like music, but they absolutely love the noise it makes".
But I'm too dumb to get the connection.0 -
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
0 -
You're comparing him to Hannibal Lector? Bit harsh, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Different Hannibal, but on the A-TeamFrankBooth said:
I've always thought of him as more Murdoch, the crazy, wacky one. Cameron obviously Face given his smug self-satisfaction. But perhaps Ed is the man with a plan, he'll be there on election night with a cigar in his mouth chewing the scenery.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
n't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
Templeton Peck = Ed Balls
BA = John Prescott
Murdoch = Gordon Brown
But even this Hannibal was crap, like his namesake, spent over a decade being rubbish and blamed for a crime he didn't commit.
But who will be Hunt Stockwell?
0 -
You appear to share the SNP's belief that Scottish voters can't see beyond 'Tory Toff' to their own economic self interest.Tykejohnno said:
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
I don't.
We'll find out soon enough.
0 -
It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.Tykejohnno said:
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?0 -
-
If Ed Miliband was a cannibal he'd be caught chewing his own leg off.FrankBooth said:
You're comparing him to Hannibal Lector? Bit harsh, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Different Hannibal, but on the A-TeamFrankBooth said:
I've always thought of him as more Murdoch, the crazy, wacky one. Cameron obviously Face given his smug self-satisfaction. But perhaps Ed is the man with a plan, he'll be there on election night with a cigar in his mouth chewing the scenery.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
n't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
Templeton Peck = Ed Balls
BA = John Prescott
Murdoch = Gordon Brown
But even this Hannibal was crap, like his namesake, spent over a decade being rubbish and blamed for a crime he didn't commit.
But who will be Hunt Stockwell?0 -
No, Hannibal son of Barca, the most over-rated military strategist in history.FrankBooth said:
You're comparing him to Hannibal Lector? Bit harsh, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Different Hannibal, but on the A-TeamFrankBooth said:
I've always thought of him as more Murdoch, the crazy, wacky one. Cameron obviously Face given his smug self-satisfaction. But perhaps Ed is the man with a plan, he'll be there on election night with a cigar in his mouth chewing the scenery.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
n't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
Templeton Peck = Ed Balls
BA = John Prescott
Murdoch = Gordon Brown
But even this Hannibal was crap, like his namesake, spent over a decade being rubbish and blamed for a crime he didn't commit.
But who will be Hunt Stockwell?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal0 -
Scientist who changed his mind about climate change bullied by ex colleagues
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/Climate-Science-Defector-Forced-to-Resign-by-Alarmist-Fatwa0 -
Just watch the yes campaign,turn it around of yet another attack on Scotland and it usually works when the person telling come's from someone in the tory party.ToryJim said:
It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.Tykejohnno said:
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
0 -
You'd need to ask the Scottish Sun's political correspondent that.CarlottaVance said:0 -
My old music teacher at school, Eugene Genin MBE, used to bawl at us through our practising:- "Start together! Keep together! Finish together!", his voice rising in frustration over the cacophony...
I now know where he got it from. Ex lead-violist in the RLPO, he was conducted on numerous occasions by Beecham.
'Bubble', as we called him (he was so rotund he looked like one of the Mister Men), carried on teaching until he was almost 80. He was so old, he used to tell us about playing in the old Philharmonic Hall, which burned down in 1933!0 -
To be fair that is rather a case of who cares.isam said:If Cameron wins a majority, holds a referendum, we leave the EU... What would the conservative immigration policy be?
The important point would be that we would be outside the EU and therefore able to set our own immigration policy. The whole debate could then begin between the various points of view with the knowledge that whichever party won would actually be able to implement their policy.
Personally I have no idea who I would support at that point (I suspect probably not the same person you would) but at least the decisions would be in the hands of our elected representatives not the EU.0 -
Oh, this is the poll the Nats were excited about?
John Curtice:
The latest monthly poll fromTNS BMRB, published today, adds to the impression that, while far from being reversed, the progress made by the Yes side during the winter has not continued apace in the spring.......
Once the Don’t Knows are excluded from the calculation, Yes stand at 41% and No on 59%, .....the Yes tally in TNS BMRB’s poll has been stuck consistently at 40-41% ever since January. There is little sign here of the continuing momentum that the Yes side would still seem to need.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/tns-bmrb-continue-to-show-an-unchanging-picture/0 -
Ah right.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, Hannibal son of Barca, the most over-rated military strategist in history.FrankBooth said:
You're comparing him to Hannibal Lector? Bit harsh, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Different Hannibal, but on the A-TeamFrankBooth said:
I've always thought of him as more Murdoch, the crazy, wacky one. Cameron obviously Face given his smug self-satisfaction. But perhaps Ed is the man with a plan, he'll be there on election night with a cigar in his mouth chewing the scenery.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have three of those in the pipeline.SquareRoot said:
Yeah, but there is always an Ed is crap thread to fall back onTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly, I admire Mike's ability to write two/three threads a day for 10 years plus.ToryJim said:
Hmm polls shouldn't be there just as a get out for your lack of imaginationTheScreamingEagles said:
When you have to run a site like PB, the daily poll is great.ToryJim said:
's potential to shift a poll figure. I appreciate your point about data but politics are about principals and policies not an exercise in statistical analysis.david_herdson said:
n't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.ToryJim said:
Like I said earlier daily polls should be scrapped after the next election. They are an utter nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics now
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.
In one, I even compare Ed to Hannibal.
Templeton Peck = Ed Balls
BA = John Prescott
Murdoch = Gordon Brown
But even this Hannibal was crap, like his namesake, spent over a decade being rubbish and blamed for a crime he didn't commit.
But who will be Hunt Stockwell?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal0 -
I suspect they will have suddenly lost interestCarlottaVance said:Oh, this is the poll the Nats were excited about?
John Curtice:
The latest monthly poll fromTNS BMRB, published today, adds to the impression that, while far from being reversed, the progress made by the Yes side during the winter has not continued apace in the spring.......
Once the Don’t Knows are excluded from the calculation, Yes stand at 41% and No on 59%, .....the Yes tally in TNS BMRB’s poll has been stuck consistently at 40-41% ever since January. There is little sign here of the continuing momentum that the Yes side would still seem to need.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/tns-bmrb-continue-to-show-an-unchanging-picture/0 -
Downthread, I made a slightly ironic comment about ways to make "self employment" work, however a funnier example just occurred to me.
(this was years ago, so no political point to it)
A couple of lads up in the West Coast managed to get a grant to start up a small marine farming business.Along with the usual benefits that accrue from these schemes, these enterprising gentlemen obtained a flat bottomed work boat of an interesting design, and had it equipped with a pair of enormous long shaft mercury outboards fitted with "kickers" ( a device that flips the outboards clear of the water but keeps them idling till the obstruction is cleared)
Now I know some on here are not overly imaginative, but the majority will like me. puzzle over why anyone would need the equivalent of a "sea tractor" that could outrun anything seaborne over the shallows and reefs of the local area (the marine farm was at the head of a deep loch, so the fittings were a slight overkill for the farm)
Send your best guesses to the coastguard or HM customs. ;-)0 -
What's he done ?AndyJS said:A potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.
Rather oddly I've just seen an actor being a 1970s Austin Mitchell on 'That Damned United'.
The film about the bloke who wasn't fit to wipe Bob Paisley's boots.
0 -
That is true only if we leave the EU, and decline to join the EEA. If we join the EEA we have to accept unlimited immigration from the EU, just as Norway and Switzerland so.Richard_Tyndall said:
To be fair that is rather a case of who cares.isam said:If Cameron wins a majority, holds a referendum, we leave the EU... What would the conservative immigration policy be?
The important point would be that we would be outside the EU and therefore able to set our own immigration policy. The whole debate could then begin between the various points of view with the knowledge that whichever party won would actually be able to implement their policy.
Personally I have no idea who I would support at that point (I suspect probably not the same person you would) but at least the decisions would be in the hands of our elected representatives not the EU.
0 -
He used the word 'rapist' about Pfizer. A number of Tory women took exception and it went from thereanother_richard said:
What's he done ?AndyJS said:A potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.
Rather oddly I've just seen an actor being a 1970s Austin Mitchell on 'That Damned United'.
The film about the bloke who wasn't fit to wipe Bob Paisley's boots.0 -
another_richard said:
What's he done ?AndyJS said:A potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.
Rather oddly I've just seen an actor being a 1970s Austin Mitchell on 'That Damned United'.
The film about the bloke who wasn't fit to wipe Bob Paisley's boots.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27411712
0 -
Connected to the Sherwood constituency betting is this interesting little factoid mentioned by Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph:
" twice as many houses were built in Doncaster and Barnsley, where prices have been falling steeply, in the five years to 2013 than in Oxford and Cambridge, where prices are rising strongly "
What the metropolitan media wouldn't realise is that Doncaster and Barnsley are excellent places to build houses - lots of spare land, cheap land prices and excellent transport links.
Similarly are many places in the old mining areas of the midlands and Yorkshire.
The electoral consequence of this is that such areas are demographically drifting Conservative.
0 -
"ToryJim said:
He used the word 'rapist' about Pfizer. A number of Tory women took exception and it went from thereanother_richard said:
What's he done ?AndyJS said:A potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.
Rather oddly I've just seen an actor being a 1970s Austin Mitchell on 'That Damned United'.
The film about the bloke who wasn't fit to wipe Bob Paisley's boots.
2.
The wanton destruction or spoiling of a place: the rape of the countryside
Origin
late Middle English (originally denoting violent seizure of property, later carrying off a woman by force): from Anglo-Norman French rap (noun), raper (verb), from Latin rapere 'seize'.
"
A perfectly correct use of a fine old word. Just like "Gay" meaning happy and joyous...
People are rather sensitive these days.
An old friend (sadly now passed away) who knew about such things told me that taboo words, or words with heavy meaning often get weaker by their usage.
For example "Starve" simply used to mean "to die" but became more specifically about dying of hunger, until eventually, now simply fancying a sandwich.
Isn't language awesome?
0 -
My sympathy is with Mitchell rather than Morgan.Tykejohnno said:another_richard said:
What's he done ?AndyJS said:A potentially dangerous situation for Labour in Great Grimsby if the current controversy ends with Austin Mitchell resigning as an MP before the general election.
Rather oddly I've just seen an actor being a 1970s Austin Mitchell on 'That Damned United'.
The film about the bloke who wasn't fit to wipe Bob Paisley's boots.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27411712
And Claire Perry yet again proves what a moron she is:
"Honey I was a feminist while you were in nappies. Now woman up and get your dinosaur colleague to apologise."
0 -
No. It's another poll supposedly by IPSOS Mori.CarlottaVance said:Oh, this is the poll the Nats were excited about?
John Curtice:
The latest monthly poll fromTNS BMRB, published today, adds to the impression that, while far from being reversed, the progress made by the Yes side during the winter has not continued apace in the spring.......
Once the Don’t Knows are excluded from the calculation, Yes stand at 41% and No on 59%, .....the Yes tally in TNS BMRB’s poll has been stuck consistently at 40-41% ever since January. There is little sign here of the continuing momentum that the Yes side would still seem to need.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/tns-bmrb-continue-to-show-an-unchanging-picture/0 -
SNP MP Eilidh Whiteford did not bother to attend the Committee Meeting Osborne presented his evidence to......ToryJim said:
It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.Tykejohnno said:
The SNP MP on the Committee where Osborne was giving evidence,CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)
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0
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I was ignoring the EEA/EFTA position for the sake of making a point to Sam about the redundancy of his question.Ishmael_X said:
That is true only if we leave the EU, and decline to join the EEA. If we join the EEA we have to accept unlimited immigration from the EU, just as Norway and Switzerland so.Richard_Tyndall said:
To be fair that is rather a case of who cares.isam said:If Cameron wins a majority, holds a referendum, we leave the EU... What would the conservative immigration policy be?
The important point would be that we would be outside the EU and therefore able to set our own immigration policy. The whole debate could then begin between the various points of view with the knowledge that whichever party won would actually be able to implement their policy.
Personally I have no idea who I would support at that point (I suspect probably not the same person you would) but at least the decisions would be in the hands of our elected representatives not the EU.
That said you are wrong about the position of Switzerland since they can (and have) put limits on EU migration. They are not members of the EEA.0 -
Oh....the confidential poll never intended for publication.....well, at least if HMG defends not publishing it, as least we can be reasonably confident it exists....unlike the SNP's legal advice on the EU......Eh_ehm_a_eh said:
No. It's another poll supposedly by IPSOS Mori.CarlottaVance said:Oh, this is the poll the Nats were excited about?
John Curtice:
The latest monthly poll fromTNS BMRB, published today, adds to the impression that, while far from being reversed, the progress made by the Yes side during the winter has not continued apace in the spring.......
Once the Don’t Knows are excluded from the calculation, Yes stand at 41% and No on 59%, .....the Yes tally in TNS BMRB’s poll has been stuck consistently at 40-41% ever since January. There is little sign here of the continuing momentum that the Yes side would still seem to need.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/05/tns-bmrb-continue-to-show-an-unchanging-picture/
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Hm0
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Hmm... What to do - for a good while this position was dire but its improved recently...
Euro betting...
UKIP-Lab-Con + 22.69
UKIP-Con-Lab + 327.69
Lab - X - X - 39.82
Con - X - X +353.18
Labour London Region: £69.09 @ 11-10.
UKIP + 26.5 £ 10 @ 5-60 -
Oh....the confidential poll never intended for publication.....well, at least if HMG defends not publishing it, as least we can be reasonably confident it exists....unlike the SNP's legal advice on the EU......
Calm down, I only pointed out it was another poll.
Never mind, Dave will soon be up to win the day.0 -
If Labour win the London bet comes in - though tbh it probably comes in no matter what... But definitely if Labour win.
The UKIP +/- bet I think lands no matter who wins too.0 -
It may be redundant to you as your goal is simply to leave the EU and you don't trust CameronRichard_Tyndall said:
I was ignoring the EEA/EFTA position for the sake of making a point to Sam about the redundancy of his question.Ishmael_X said:
That is true only if we leave the EU, and decline to join the EEA. If we join the EEA we have to accept unlimited immigration from the EU, just as Norway and Switzerland so.Richard_Tyndall said:
To be fair that is rather a case of who cares.isam said:If Cameron wins a majority, holds a referendum, we leave the EU... What would the conservative immigration policy be?
The important point would be that we would be outside the EU and therefore able to set our own immigration policy. The whole debate could then begin between the various points of view with the knowledge that whichever party won would actually be able to implement their policy.
Personally I have no idea who I would support at that point (I suspect probably not the same person you would) but at least the decisions would be in the hands of our elected representatives not the EU.
That said you are wrong about the position of Switzerland since they can (and have) put limits on EU migration. They are not members of the EEA.
To people that intend to vote ukip because they want to end open door immigration it would be worth knowing what Cameron would do we're we to leave the EU
If he adopted a points system for all immigrants it might win him ukip votes
If he were to keep the current system it may not
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Oh If the Lib Dems win I'm stuck £270 ^_~0
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0
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Is that even possible ?Neil said:
If they win the Euros on 25% is that a clear vote to leave the EU?anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
UKIP 25
Lab 24
Con 24
Lib Dem 10
Green 9
AIFE 1.5
SNP/BNP/Plaid etc 6.5 ...0 -
Possible but unlikely.0
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Yes. As I said the other day, UKIP have been gnawing at traditional Labour working-class votes (they've not had a significant impact on Labour middle-class votes, which are crucial in e.g. Broxtowe's Labour vote but it's very different in some Northern seats). In general I think the underlying position is still that Labour is slightly ahead on forced choice in a pretty stable way, but UKIP is hurting both parties in a way that varies from day to day. It's very hard to predict, but laying whatever result a current poll shows may be a good betting tactic, especially for the Euros.david_herdson said:
Plenty of time for that to change. In the interim, Labour's YouGov average this month is around 36%. In April it was over 37%; in January, it was 38.7%; last May (despite the UKIP surge), it was 39.2%; last January, it was 42.6%; in May 2012, it was 43.4%.RochdalePioneers said:That can't be right. I'm reliably informed that the 2 polls showing a Tory lead was because of the magnificence and economic prowess of Osborne and his economic miracle for all. This suggests that the Tories haven't moved a jot and instead we've seen some Labour voters get a smidge uncertain.
Or in summary, the Tories have done literally nothing to persuade the great unwashed up here in the desolate north to vote for them. Just 1 in 8 think there is any recovery. And media focus on an election platform (the Greens, UKIP) boosts votes, so you imagine that some wavering Labour voters will waver a little less once we have had plenty of meat on the bones from this year's conference onwards.
Or, as I put it on the thread earlier, PB Tories have decided that this week's sudden mass swing not to their party is proof that there will be no more swings of any description in the next year because they have already won.....
Yes, the Tories have something of a problem picking up votes but do you not think Labour has a problem too?0 -
Bangkok — 2 killed, 22 injured in attack on protest camp:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-274195580 -
"A ruling forcing Google to remove search results has been described as "astonishing" by Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales.
The European Courts of Justice ruled on Tuesday that an individual could demand that "irrelevant or outdated" information be deleted from results.
Mr Wales said it was "one of the most wide-sweeping internet censorship rulings that I've ever seen"."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-274070170 -
http://healthland.time.com/2012/05/07/why-up-to-90-of-asian-schoolchildren-are-nearsighted/
Up to 90% of east asian school kids short-sighted. Lack of sunlight apparently.0 -
Computers and video games rather than staying in to do homework would be my guess. It would be interesting to see how far these high rates go back.MrJones said:http://healthland.time.com/2012/05/07/why-up-to-90-of-asian-schoolchildren-are-nearsighted/
Up to 90% of east asian school kids short-sighted. Lack of sunlight apparently.0 -
25% for the kippers is not a vote to leave the EU. Even the aggregate vote of all the anti EU parties would come to 30% or less.
MEPs also have no power to get the UK to leave, that is rightly the perogative of the Westminster parliament. All a UKIP MEP achieves is more of a gravy train for Farages mates if yesterdays cash for selections story contains the truth.Pulpstar said:
Is that even possible ?Neil said:
If they win the Euros on 25% is that a clear vote to leave the EU?anotherDave said:
UKIP's founding purpose was to get the UK out of the EU. If they win the EU Parliament elections, that is a clear vote for leaving the EU.Quincel said:
I'm not so sure, the result of a hypothetical referendum has if anything slightly improved as UKIP have risen in the polls over the few years.anotherDave said:
A clearer message that they want to leave the EU.Quincel said:
Both EP 2014 and GE 2015 look likely to be a case of "The people have spoken. What did they say?". Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants and politicians even more than usual.Pulpstar said:The electorate is in a febrile mood and has NO FUCKING CLUE what it wants !
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
UKIP 25
Lab 24
Con 24
Lib Dem 10
Green 9
AIFE 1.5
SNP/BNP/Plaid etc 6.5 ...0 -
Agreed.FrankBooth said:
They got 8% at the last Euros so it shouldn't be too surprising. Given what's happened to the Lib Dems they should be aiming for 10+.anotherDave said:The Green surge is looking more solid by the hour.
This GRN price looks very tempting:
Ladbrokes - Euros - GB Vote Share Match Bet
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/40 -
I do not think those particularly attractive odds on either side.
Though it would make an interesting bloc of UK MEPs: the climate change sceptics and the climate change true-believers. I suspect that the Green MEPs would be more likely to turn up and vote, and also initiate new environmental legislation.Stuart_Dickson said:
Agreed.FrankBooth said:
They got 8% at the last Euros so it shouldn't be too surprising. Given what's happened to the Lib Dems they should be aiming for 10+.anotherDave said:The Green surge is looking more solid by the hour.
This GRN price looks very tempting:
Ladbrokes - Euros - GB Vote Share Match Bet
Lib Dems 1/2
Greens 6/40 -
Not true.ToryJim said:
It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.Tykejohnno said:
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.
One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.
Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.0 -
Ah yes, the eternal doing Scotland down story.Stuart_Dickson said:
Not true.ToryJim said:
It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.Tykejohnno said:
It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)CarlottaVance said:
Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....Tykejohnno said:
Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.CarlottaVance said:Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
.....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ
.....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?
His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.
One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.
Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.
What are you pushing today Stuart ?
- Osborne threatening Scotland , he'll rue the day
- Evil George Catbert deliberately pushing Scotland out of UK to establish eternal Tory hegemony in England.
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The paucity of the Nat claims is evident when you try and ponder any alternatives.Alanbrooke said:
Ah yes, the eternal doing Scotland down story.
The chancellor of the UK makes a speech saying I am happy to share the currency with a foreign nation...
It's not credible.0 -
Childishly farcical.Scott_P said:
The paucity of the Nat claims is evident when you try and ponder any alternatives.Alanbrooke said:
Ah yes, the eternal doing Scotland down story.
The chancellor of the UK makes a speech saying I am happy to share the currency with a foreign nation...
It's not credible.
Cameron won't go to Scotland and it's we demand the PM why's he frit.
Cameron comes to Scotland and it's who's he to come here and tell us what to do.
Too stupid - it's the killer every time.0 -
YouGov
Best PM:
DC: 36(+1)
EdM: 19(-2)
DC has support of Cons:95; LAB:6; LD:25; UKIP:29
EdM has support of Cons:0; LAB:58; LD:6; UKIP:6
For 2010 VI the figures are:
DC has support of Cons:74; LAB:11; LD:23
EdM has support of Cons:3; LAB:46; LD:18
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/drt1d0irmj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514.pdf
YouGov: tracker
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/14/economy-no-longer-number-one-issue/0
This discussion has been closed.