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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has no

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    95% support for DC is a pretty impressive figure. Safe until after the 2015 election.

    Ed less so, but I think this in part the fault of a lacklustre front bench. Not a convcing alternative government to lead.
    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Best PM:
    DC: 36(+1)
    EdM: 19(-2)

    DC has support of Cons:95; LAB:6; LD:25; UKIP:29
    EdM has support of Cons:0; LAB:58; LD:6; UKIP:6

    For 2010 VI the figures are:
    DC has support of Cons:74; LAB:11; LD:23
    EdM has support of Cons:3; LAB:46; LD:18

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/drt1d0irmj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514.pdf

    YouGov: tracker

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/14/economy-no-longer-number-one-issue/

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2014


    Too stupid - it's the killer every time.

    A YeSNP supporter on Twitter last night, when asked why the SNP thought Scotland was too wee and too poor to have its own currency claimed that all the shouting about using Sterling was a ruse so as "not to scare the horses", and after the vote would be abandoned
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "Evil" Englîsh Scottish businesswoman plans closure of Scottish English airport:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/pm-questions-ann-gloag-s-airport-closure-plan-1-3411214
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I do not think those particularly attractive odds on either side.

    Though it would make an interesting bloc of UK MEPs: the climate change sceptics and the climate change true-believers. I suspect that the Green MEPs would be more likely to turn up and vote, and also initiate new environmental legislation.


    The Green surge is looking more solid by the hour.

    They got 8% at the last Euros so it shouldn't be too surprising. Given what's happened to the Lib Dems they should be aiming for 10+.
    Agreed.

    This GRN price looks very tempting:

    Ladbrokes - Euros - GB Vote Share Match Bet

    Lib Dems 1/2
    Greens 6/4
    As I understand it, MEPs cannot initiate legislation.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

    Their client is given as 'C4M'.

    Does anyone know who that is?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    MikeK said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Lib Dem video attack on UKIP

    Weren't they crying about Labours negative PPB last week?

    Oh well, maybe it'll be 33rd time lucky

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZW4R7tut2o

    It is political dirty tricks to portray the crazies in any party as representative of that entire party, and it is indeed overtly negative, but it is at least taking things actual people have said or written, whereas the Labour PEB which drew such derision was just a rather pathetic skit portraying make believe statements as fact.

    Neither is positive, which is unfortunate, but in terms of standard political dealing one was a little more over the line than the other in terms of presenting a very partisan view as 'fact', hence the Labour one drawing mroe criticism than a standard negative ad I suspect. If they'd spliced in actual footage of some Tory cllr saying something offensive or stupid, it would still have been condemned by Tories, but it would have been par for the course.
    Indeed. It would be unfair, for example, to portray Mike Hancock or Chris Huhne as representative of all Lib Dems.

    Or Cyril Smith, or Jeremy Thorpe, or Charles Kennedy...
    If only Charles Kennedy WAS reflective of all Lib Dems. Sadly the Party has been taken over by unscrupulous careerists like Clegg and Laws. I wonder whether there is a strong enough base to the party that has the will to move on from this rather grubby period in their history.
    That grubby period? You mean that period for the first time in nearly a century the Liberals and their successor parties were part of a peacetime government?
    The Liberals were part of the National government in the early '30s, so more like eighty years.
    They were also part of Churchill's wartime coalition.

    Yes, but TSE's comment was that the Lib Dems / their predecessors are part of a *peacetime* government for the first time in nearly a century, which implies 1922 (or, at a push, August 1914), whereas it's often forgotten that most Liberal NPs joined / supported the National Government in 1931, though the official Liberals withdrew before the 1935 election (the remainder ended up as National Liberals and ultimately Conservatives so aren't really predecessors of the current Lib Dems).
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Best PM:
    DC: 36(+1)
    EdM: 19(-2)

    DC has support of Cons:95; LAB:6; LD:25; UKIP:29
    EdM has support of Cons:0; LAB:58; LD:6; UKIP:6

    For 2010 VI the figures are:
    DC has support of Cons:74; LAB:11; LD:23
    EdM has support of Cons:3; LAB:46; LD:18

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/drt1d0irmj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514.pdf

    YouGov: tracker

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/14/economy-no-longer-number-one-issue/

    Hmmm... Scottish Labour are leading over the SNP by 38% to 31% in that poll.

    Does that make this 11/4 price an attractive proposition?

    William Hill - EP election, Scotland - Most Votes?

    SNP 1/4
    Lab 11/4 (Shadsy has only 9/4)

    The only reason that I've not bunged on 50 quid is that I have doubts about SLab's GOTV operation at the moment.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ComRes, table 12, p. 36

    "I am confident that David Cameron has the determination and powers to block any proposals from Europe which undermine our freedoms"

    Agree: 22%
    Disagree: 52%

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    95% support for DC is a pretty impressive figure. Safe until after the 2015 election.

    Ed less so, but I think this in part the fault of a lacklustre front bench. Not a convcing alternative government to lead.

    Financier said:

    YouGov

    Best PM:
    DC: 36(+1)
    EdM: 19(-2)

    DC has support of Cons:95; LAB:6; LD:25; UKIP:29
    EdM has support of Cons:0; LAB:58; LD:6; UKIP:6

    For 2010 VI the figures are:
    DC has support of Cons:74; LAB:11; LD:23
    EdM has support of Cons:3; LAB:46; LD:18

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/drt1d0irmj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-140514.pdf

    YouGov: tracker

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/14/economy-no-longer-number-one-issue/

    Surely EdM is safe until the election precisely because he has a lacklustre front bench. Who could credibly replace him?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
    Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....

    .....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?

    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.
    Not true.

    His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.

    One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.

    Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.
    Risible. I know that the pro-Independence side would infinitely prefer it if the pro-union side were not allowed to campaign but when Salmond makes lunatic assertions on the shape of things if he succeeded then a correction will come. The Chancellor backed by the financial spokespersons of the other major political parties was the most credible way of putting the case that if Scotland leaves then they leave the pound also.

    Now I know that if The Lord God was to become incarnate yet again for the soul purpose of making this point that the Great Arrogance of Bute House would say he were wrong. Alex Salmond is perfectly entitled to make suggestions as to how he sees things after independence, in fact it is incumbent upon him to do so, what he and those on his side cannot do is to expect to dictate to others their response.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ToryJim said:


    Now I know that if The Lord God was to become incarnate yet again for the soul purpose of making this point that the Great Arrogance of Bute House would say he were wrong.

    Add up all of the events that have been "brilliant news for Yes, and a disaster for No" and it's easy to see why the YeSNP are storming to a consistent lead in the, oh, wait...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "fully 42% of 2010 Con voters planning to vote UKIP and 10/10 'certain to vote' in Euros"

    twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/466814005924069376
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
    Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....

    .....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?

    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.
    Not true.

    His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.

    One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.

    Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.
    Risible. I know that the pro-Independence side would infinitely prefer it if the pro-union side were not allowed to campaign but when Salmond makes lunatic assertions on the shape of things if he succeeded then a correction will come. The Chancellor backed by the financial spokespersons of the other major political parties was the most credible way of putting the case that if Scotland leaves then they leave the pound also.

    Now I know that if The Lord God was to become incarnate yet again for the soul purpose of making this point that the Great Arrogance of Bute House would say he were wrong. Alex Salmond is perfectly entitled to make suggestions as to how he sees things after independence, in fact it is incumbent upon him to do so, what he and those on his side cannot do is to expect to dictate to others their response.

    We did not "dictate" anything. Osborne's was an unforced error. He chose to make the Aberdeen speech. A classic own goal.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557

    ToryJim said:

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
    Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....

    .....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?

    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.
    Not true.

    His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.

    One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.

    Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.
    Ah yes, the eternal doing Scotland down story.

    What are you pushing today Stuart ?

    - Osborne threatening Scotland , he'll rue the day
    - Evil George Catbert deliberately pushing Scotland out of UK to establish eternal Tory hegemony in England.


    Err... who is George Catbert? Never heard of him.

    (Yes, I have heard of Google, but cannot be arsed looking up some obscure Unionist guff.)
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
    Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....

    .....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?

    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.
    Not true.

    His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.

    One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.

    Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.
    Risible. I know that the pro-Independence side would infinitely prefer it if the pro-union side were not allowed to campaign but when Salmond makes lunatic assertions on the shape of things if he succeeded then a correction will come. The Chancellor backed by the financial spokespersons of the other major political parties was the most credible way of putting the case that if Scotland leaves then they leave the pound also.

    Now I know that if The Lord God was to become incarnate yet again for the soul purpose of making this point that the Great Arrogance of Bute House would say he were wrong. Alex Salmond is perfectly entitled to make suggestions as to how he sees things after independence, in fact it is incumbent upon him to do so, what he and those on his side cannot do is to expect to dictate to others their response.

    We did not "dictate" anything. Osborne's was an unforced error. He chose to make the Aberdeen speech. A classic own goal.
    Lugubrious ingemination of a falsehood won't make it the truth.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ToryJim said:


    Lugubrious ingemination of a falsehood won't make it the truth.

    Sure it will. Have you not seen the White Paper?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    SNIP
    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.
    Not true.

    His disasterous Aberdeen trip utterly destroyed any pretence that he was "speaking on economic matters for the United Kingdom". He made it crystal clear that he is speaking on economic matters for the rUK.

    One of the most stunning own goals in recent UK politics.

    Cameron and Osborne have already given up on the Union. They are solely addressing their own base. Very few here at PB can see what is happening. Long may that continue.
    Risible. I know that the pro-Independence side would infinitely prefer it if the pro-union side were not allowed to campaign but when Salmond makes lunatic assertions on the shape of things if he succeeded then a correction will come. The Chancellor backed by the financial spokespersons of the other major political parties was the most credible way of putting the case that if Scotland leaves then they leave the pound also.

    Now I know that if The Lord God was to become incarnate yet again for the soul purpose of making this point that the Great Arrogance of Bute House would say he were wrong. Alex Salmond is perfectly entitled to make suggestions as to how he sees things after independence, in fact it is incumbent upon him to do so, what he and those on his side cannot do is to expect to dictate to others their response.

    We did not "dictate" anything. Osborne's was an unforced error. He chose to make the Aberdeen speech. A classic own goal.
    Lugubrious ingemination of a falsehood won't make it the truth.
    Tell that to George Osborne.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Stunning new European Parliament voting intention poll
    (+/- change from EP election 2009)

    SNP 40% (+11)
    Con 22% (+5)
    Lab 16% (-5)
    UKIP 8% (+3)
    Grn 7% (n/c)
    LD 5% (-7)
    BNP 1% (-2)

    ComRes - Scottish sub-sample = 172

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_European_Voting_Intention_Poll_15_May_2014.pdf

    That would result in a seat distribution of:

    SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
    Con 2 MEPs (+1)
    Lab 1 MEP (-1)
    LD 0 MEPs (-1)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
    Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....

    .....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?

    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    You appear to share the SNP's belief that Scottish voters can't see beyond 'Tory Toff' to their own economic self interest.

    I don't.

    We'll find out soon enough.

    Not everybody's only goals in life are money and themselves. As you seem to be a stranger to Scotland , there are more people without money than those with it. Basing your opinion on your greedy rich me me Tory personna is however what you would expect.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    ToryJim said:

    Unionists feed on Salmond’s gaffes
    .....pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine are now looking to Scotland for support.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f25a9160-db82-11e3-a460-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31jQQFUEQ

    Could this be a gaffe by Osborne,telling scot's more doom and gloom if you vote yes.
    Its a sorry state of affairs when 'telling the truth' counts as a 'gaffe'.....although it has long been the case that 'words are twisted by knaves to make traps for fools'.....

    .....On what planet is the BoE going to stand behind notes issued by the banks of a foreign country?

    The SNP MP on the Committee where Osborne was giving evidence,

    It's a gaffe because of yet another no campaign attack is negative and who it came from, a tory toff osborne ,as seen in many Scottish eye's ;-)

    It's not an attack, it's a statement of what the situation will be if Scotland seceded. He is the Chancellor and just because certain Scots are snippy about where he was born they cannot alter the fact that for the moment he speaks on economic matters for the United Kingdom.
    SNP MP Eilidh Whiteford did not bother to attend the Committee Meeting Osborne presented his evidence to......

    More lying. She has not attended any of the meetings since she was threatened with a "right doing" by the Labour thug that leads the committee. Usual unionist behaviour.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Stuart_Dickson

    The only "stunning" point of note about a ComRes sub sample of 172 is that you feel it worthy of serious note.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Stunning new European Parliament voting intention poll
    (+/- change from EP election 2009)

    SNP 40% (+11)
    Con 22% (+5)
    Lab 16% (-5)
    UKIP 8% (+3)
    Grn 7% (n/c)
    LD 5% (-7)
    BNP 1% (-2)

    ComRes - Scottish sub-sample = 172

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_European_Voting_Intention_Poll_15_May_2014.pdf

    That would result in a seat distribution of:

    SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
    Con 2 MEPs (+1)
    Lab 1 MEP (-1)
    LD 0 MEPs (-1)

    Are any of the Scottish newspapers likely to commission another Scotland-only EU Parliament poll before the election?

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Today's Matt is a classic

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2014



    "More lying. She has not attended any of the meetings since she was threatened with a "right doing" by the Labour thug that leads the committee. Usual unionist behaviour".

    Oh the irony...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Stunning new European Parliament voting intention poll
    (+/- change from EP election 2009)

    SNP 40% (+11)
    Con 22% (+5)
    Lab 16% (-5)
    UKIP 8% (+3)
    Grn 7% (n/c)
    LD 5% (-7)
    BNP 1% (-2)

    ComRes - Scottish sub-sample = 172

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_European_Voting_Intention_Poll_15_May_2014.pdf

    That would result in a seat distribution of:

    SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
    Con 2 MEPs (+1)
    Lab 1 MEP (-1)
    LD 0 MEPs (-1)

    Are any of the Scottish newspapers likely to commission another Scotland-only EU Parliament poll before the election?

    Doubtful given the dire financial position most of them are in.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ToryJim said:

    Today's Matt is a classic

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/

    I think YouTube is much more entertaining.

    http://youtu.be/6-mfAOtW_AY
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    It's so difficult to believe Nick Clegg whenever he says anything.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Neil, are you saying 73 million British jobs *don't* depend on membership of the EU?!
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all and I gather that Labour has already abandoned hopes of winning Barnet Council in London next week.

    What is a good result for Labour next week? Losing fewer than 500 council wards? :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    What is a good result for Labour next week?

    Sufficient panic in the ranks to prompt a major front bench reshuffle perhaps?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    Stunning new European Parliament voting intention poll
    (+/- change from EP election 2009)

    SNP 40% (+11)
    Con 22% (+5)
    Lab 16% (-5)
    UKIP 8% (+3)
    Grn 7% (n/c)
    LD 5% (-7)
    BNP 1% (-2)

    ComRes - Scottish sub-sample = 172

    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_European_Voting_Intention_Poll_15_May_2014.pdf

    That would result in a seat distribution of:

    SNP 3 MEPs (+1)
    Con 2 MEPs (+1)
    Lab 1 MEP (-1)
    LD 0 MEPs (-1)

    Are any of the Scottish newspapers likely to commission another Scotland-only EU Parliament poll before the election?

    Lovely thought but I will settle for Iain Duncan comfortably holding the Tory Scottish MEP seat. Anything better is beyond our wildest dreams. How each constituency votes though will be interesting as a minor straw in the wind for next year's GE battlegrounds in Scotland IF Scotland is still participating by then.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mr Salmond is under pressure to come up with a “plan B” on currency and has hinted that his favoured option would be using the pound unilaterally, in the way that Panama uses the dollar. Giving evidence to the Scottish affairs committee yesterday, Mr Osborne acknowledged that an independent Scotland could take the “sterlingisation” approach but it would be doomed to failure.

    “The idea Scotland could adopt the Panama or Montenegro approach is just not credible. It wouldn’t last, it would be pretty disastrous for Scotland to even try that,” he said. “It’s inconceivable that you could have a financial sector anything like the size and sophistication of Scotland’s, employing tens of thousands of people, when you are literally having to grab pound notes and pound coins as they come across the border and try and hold on to them.”
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4090249.ece
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Scott_P said:


    What is a good result for Labour next week?

    Sufficient panic in the ranks to prompt a major front bench reshuffle perhaps?
    There's going to be a reshuffle anyway, he needs to over promote some more people like Tristram ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Neil said:

    It's so difficult to believe Nick Clegg whenever he says anything.

    The Lib Dem campaign slogan should be:

    European Jobs for European workers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    Labour's dilemma in a nutshell (& one of the better spoof accounts out there).

    A_DarlingMP ‏@A_DarlingMP 4 mins
    This morning in Edinburgh I'll tell reporters it's great to see David Cameron use John Smith to explain why Scotland can't govern itself.

    A_DarlingMP ‏@A_DarlingMP 4 mins
    This afternoon in London I'll tell reporters it's terrible to see David Cameron use John Smith to suck up to the Labour electorate.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Seems to be a whiff of desperation in the Nat ranks this morning - the Sun going on Cam going positive on the referendum seems to have ruffled feathers...
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Scott_P said:

    Mr Salmond is under pressure to come up with a “plan B” on currency and has hinted that his favoured option would be using the pound unilaterally, in the way that Panama uses the dollar. Giving evidence to the Scottish affairs committee yesterday, Mr Osborne acknowledged that an independent Scotland could take the “sterlingisation” approach but it would be doomed to failure.

    “The idea Scotland could adopt the Panama or Montenegro approach is just not credible. It wouldn’t last, it would be pretty disastrous for Scotland to even try that,” he said. “It’s inconceivable that you could have a financial sector anything like the size and sophistication of Scotland’s, employing tens of thousands of people, when you are literally having to grab pound notes and pound coins as they come across the border and try and hold on to them.”
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4090249.ece

    Perhaps they'll create a new currency the Salmond, colourful, interesting but not necessarily to be taken at face value ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Good morning all and I gather that Labour has already abandoned hopes of winning Barnet Council in London next week.

    What is a good result for Labour next week? Losing fewer than 500 council wards? :)

    Barnet was never a realistic prospect for Labour, unless Brian Coleman had remained the most prominent local Conservative.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    Sean_F said:

    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

    Their client is given as 'C4M'.

    Does anyone know who that is?
    Channel 4 is it not?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Neil said:

    It's so difficult to believe Nick Clegg whenever he says anything.

    Someone tracked down a piece he wrote for the Guardian when he was an MEP. In those days his line was that 50% of UK laws came from Brussels.

    http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2014/05/08/nick-clegg-the-antithesis-of-honesty-and-the-eu-the-david-brent-of-the-global-governance-structure/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Pulpstar, maybe a very positive Lib Dem bar chart would help, with a small asterisk and a footnote explaining it was polled in Japan.

    Mr. Divvie, given Yes wants Scotland to 'govern itself' it's bizarre to see the desperate insistence that you can vote to leave a country and then retain the currency.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Sean_F said:

    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

    Their client is given as 'C4M'.

    Does anyone know who that is?
    Channel 4 is it not?
    After reading the supplemental questions, I think it's the 'coalition for marriage'.

    http://c4m.org.uk
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited May 2014
    Mr. Jim, 100 sturgeons to a salmond?

    Presumably it'll be two-faced :p

    Edited extra bit: two-faced = the pound is a millstone around Scotland's neck/of course we can keep the pound. Bluff, bluster etc.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    TGOHF said:

    Seems to be a whiff of desperation in the Nat ranks this morning - the Sun going on Cam going positive on the referendum seems to have ruffled feathers...

    How many times a week do you say that? Four, five?

    It's nice though that you've become such a naturalised southron that you've completely adopted the 'if I keep reading the Telegraph everything will be alright' outlook.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Jim, 100 sturgeons to a salmond?

    Presumably it'll be two-faced :p

    You can spend them freely in Chicago ?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Mr Dancer I think the theory is that an Independent Scotland will have a form of constitutional wave-particle duality being entirely the same yet completely different.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Seems to be a whiff of desperation in the Nat ranks this morning - the Sun going on Cam going positive on the referendum seems to have ruffled feathers...

    How many times a week do you say that? Four, five?

    It's nice though that you've become such a naturalised southron that you've completely adopted the 'if I keep reading the Telegraph everything will be alright' outlook.
    All of that brown nosing of Rupert seems to have been a waste of time..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Labour's dilemma in a nutshell (& one of the better spoof accounts out there).

    A_DarlingMP ‏@A_DarlingMP 4 mins
    This morning in Edinburgh I'll tell reporters it's great to see David Cameron use John Smith to explain why Scotland can't govern itself.

    A_DarlingMP ‏@A_DarlingMP 4 mins
    This afternoon in London I'll tell reporters it's terrible to see David Cameron use John Smith to suck up to the Labour electorate.

    Once again the Nats only tool is division.

    "Scots and Tories English can't work together in a single Nation"

    "Labour and Tories English can't work together in a single campaign"

    How did YestoAV work out for you?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Survation ‏@Survation 1m

    #indyref Headline figures with "change" since 9 April
    Yes - 37% (NC)
    No - 47% (NC)
    Undecided - 17% (+ 1%)
    Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables.pdf
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ToryJim said:

    Mr Dancer I think the theory is that an Independent Scotland will have a form of constitutional wave-particle duality being entirely the same yet completely different.

    The problem with those sort of things is they collapse when people examine them.

    Oh...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Flashman (deceased), terribly sorry, but I don't get the reference.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Yes - 37% (NC)
    No - 47% (NC)
    Undecided - 17% (+ 1%)

    Wow, unstoppable momentum for...

    Oh, wait...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Survation ‏@Survation 1m

    #indyref Headline figures with "change" since 9 April
    Yes - 37% (NC)
    No - 47% (NC)
    Undecided - 17% (+ 1%)
    Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables.pdf

    EU Parliament VI, table 17, p.20
    Con 13%, Green 6%, Lab 27%, LD 6%, SNP 37%, UKIP 10%

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Repercentaged to exclude don't knows

    No 56%, Yes 44%
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    edited May 2014
    Scott_P said:


    How did YestoAV work out for you?

    Eh? Feck knows, how did it work out for you?
    Its only value was the entertainment of seeing one of our Westminster masters juking it out with the other over a 'grubby little compromise'.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    Survation ‏@Survation 1m

    #indyref Headline figures with "change" since 9 April
    Yes - 37% (NC)
    No - 47% (NC)
    Undecided - 17% (+ 1%)
    Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables.pdf

    EU Parliament VI, table 17, p.20
    Con 13%, Green 6%, Lab 27%, LD 6%, SNP 37%, UKIP 10%

    A while back, I did some research that showed historically Labour always did better in Scotland in the rest of the UK.

    Now if Labour is polling 27% in Scotland, then they should be doing worse in England.

    I wonder if history will repeat itself next week?

    Edit - I haven't got the seat predictors in front of me, but UKIP wins a Scottish MEP on that?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Survation ‏@Survation 1m

    #indyref Headline figures with "change" since 9 April
    Yes - 37% (NC)
    No - 47% (NC)
    Undecided - 17% (+ 1%)
    Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables.pdf

    EU Parliament VI, table 17, p.20
    Con 13%, Green 6%, Lab 27%, LD 6%, SNP 37%, UKIP 10%

    A while back, I did some research that showed historically Labour always did better in Scotland in the rest of the UK.

    Now if Labour is polling 27% in Scotland, then they should be doing worse in England.

    I wonder if history will repeat itself.

    Edit - I haven't got the seat predictors in front of me, but UKIP wins a Scottish MEP on that?
    If it does, it would certainly make it far easier to see them placing third. The key for Labour has to be beating the Tories, if they fail then it will feed a negative narrative.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Survation ‏@Survation 1m

    #indyref Headline figures with "change" since 9 April
    Yes - 37% (NC)
    No - 47% (NC)
    Undecided - 17% (+ 1%)
    Tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Daily-Record-tables.pdf

    EU Parliament VI, table 17, p.20
    Con 13%, Green 6%, Lab 27%, LD 6%, SNP 37%, UKIP 10%

    A while back, I did some research that showed historically Labour always did better in Scotland in the rest of the UK.

    Now if Labour is polling 27% in Scotland, then they should be doing worse in England.

    I wonder if history will repeat itself next week?

    Edit - I haven't got the seat predictors in front of me, but UKIP wins a Scottish MEP on that?
    I don't think so. (SNP 3, Lab 2, Con 1 ??)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ToryJim said:

    Mr Dancer I think the theory is that an Independent Scotland will have a form of constitutional wave-particle duality being entirely the same yet completely different.

    Ahah! You think that Scotland will appear and disappear up it's own hole. Now that is a theory to contemplate.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2014
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mr Salmond is under pressure to come up with a “plan B” on currency and has hinted that his favoured option would be using the pound unilaterally, in the way that Panama uses the dollar. Giving evidence to the Scottish affairs committee yesterday, Mr Osborne acknowledged that an independent Scotland could take the “sterlingisation” approach but it would be doomed to failure.

    “The idea Scotland could adopt the Panama or Montenegro approach is just not credible. It wouldn’t last, it would be pretty disastrous for Scotland to even try that,” he said. “It’s inconceivable that you could have a financial sector anything like the size and sophistication of Scotland’s, employing tens of thousands of people, when you are literally having to grab pound notes and pound coins as they come across the border and try and hold on to them.”
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4090249.ece
    Perhaps they'll create a new currency the Salmond, colourful, interesting but not necessarily to be taken at face value ;)

    On all my visits to Panama, i never took the local currency - the Balboa which is tied to the USD - as nobody would ever take it. Same applies to most of the Caribbean and Central America - the USD is king.

    Presumably the same would happen with the Salmond/Scottish Pound/Celtic Dollar/ Highland Euro etc.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests


    Err here's some of the other news outlets that picked up the Batten story

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27405765

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-mep-gerard-battens-home-is-targeted-by-vandals-9369620.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Isam, that's a serious story (in both ways) and worthy of more dissemination. Regardless of one's views of UKIP, violent intimidation is unacceptable.

    Mr. Financier, I do wonder if the SNP would be better returning to the euro. They'll have to promise to join it anyway as part of applying for EU membership. Of course, doing it now would make Salmond look like a shilly-shallying shyster.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Lib Dem Euro bumf arrived through the door yesterday to add to the pile from UKIP & Tories (nothing from Lab or minor parties as yet) – Privately addressed and personalised intro, 2xA4, 1xBW & Colour, lots of pictures of Graham Watson (SW MEP) none of Clegg.

    Entire premise is based on Clegg’s 3 million job loss claim – ‘Just a few days to protect British jobs’ – ‘In Europe in Work’ ‘UKIP & Tories gambling with millions of Jobs’ etc. –Tone very much at aimed at the Euro fanatic but not too bright brigade. Score 6/10.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Scottish Westminster VI, table 30, p.33
    Con 18%, Green 2%, Lab 35%, LD 5%, SNP 37%, UKIP 4%.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests

    I thought the point of UKIP was to revel in their insurgent status as being up against "the machine". That being the case UKIP can't expect the establishment to just roll over and shouldn't complain when they don't. Their whole MO is that the big boys are ganging up on them, to then blue about it makes them look ridiculous. They should MTFU.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    On R4 earlier, Mr Clegg said that it was LD policy to hold an in-out referendum if there is a new Euro treaty (or similar). As far as I understand, this is also Labour policy. He then confused me by saying that the government had legislated for this - I thought that the legislation was that we would have a referendum on accepting the new treaty, not in-out? Can someone put me straight?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Sean_F said:

    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

    In 2009 Labour under performed their worst poll rating of 16% in the lead up to the Euros. With Ed Miliband's current figures, I simply cannot see him adding more than 10% to his vote, or coming close to the 28%-ish that Blair polled in 1999.

    I'm a seller on Labour at anything down to 24%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    French question: what's the French for sergeant? Not a major issue at all, but I've got some Francophone mercenaries and considering changing it to serjeant (I know that's old English, but it looks more Frenchy than sergeant).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Financier said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    Mr Salmond is under pressure to come up with a “plan B” on currency and has hinted that his favoured option would be using the pound unilaterally, in the way that Panama uses the dollar. Giving evidence to the Scottish affairs committee yesterday, Mr Osborne acknowledged that an independent Scotland could take the “sterlingisation” approach but it would be doomed to failure.

    “The idea Scotland could adopt the Panama or Montenegro approach is just not credible. It wouldn’t last, it would be pretty disastrous for Scotland to even try that,” he said. “It’s inconceivable that you could have a financial sector anything like the size and sophistication of Scotland’s, employing tens of thousands of people, when you are literally having to grab pound notes and pound coins as they come across the border and try and hold on to them.”
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4090249.ece
    Perhaps they'll create a new currency the Salmond, colourful, interesting but not necessarily to be taken at face value ;)
    On all my visits to Panama, i never took the local currency - the Balboa which is tied to the USD - as nobody would ever take it. Same applies to most of the Caribbean and Central America - the USD is king.

    Presumably the same would happen with the Salmond/Scottish Pound/Celtic Dollar/ Highland Euro etc.Did you wear a panama hat?

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    On R4 earlier, Mr Clegg said that it was LD policy to hold an in-out referendum if there is a new Euro treaty (or similar). As far as I understand, this is also Labour policy. He then confused me by saying that the government had legislated for this - I thought that the legislation was that we would have a referendum on accepting the new treaty, not in-out? Can someone put me straight?

    Yes Clegg is conflating, the legislation is a referendum on ratification.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    French question: what's the French for sergeant? Not a major issue at all, but I've got some Francophone mercenaries and considering changing it to serjeant (I know that's old English, but it looks more Frenchy than sergeant).

    Its sergent
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jim, many thanks. I think I'll have to avoid using that, though, as it looks like a typo or a 'soft' change (like in A Song of Ice and Fire where 'sir' is changed to 'ser').
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    ToryJim said:

    Mr Dancer I think the theory is that an Independent Scotland will have a form of constitutional wave-particle duality being entirely the same yet completely different.

    Solace of quantum?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Sean_F said:

    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

    In 2009 Labour under performed their worst poll rating of 16% in the lead up to the Euros. With Ed Miliband's current figures, I simply cannot see him adding more than 10% to his vote, or coming close to the 28%-ish that Blair polled in 1999.

    I'm a seller on Labour at anything down to 24%.
    You can lay Labour at 3.9 on Betfair.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    @SandyRentool

    Your understanding of the 'referendum lock' is the same as mine, it is a referendum on the specific power extension.

    This lock is to my mine more sensible than the Labour plan. There seems to be a disconnect in this idea that the next time the EU wants more power, rather than just voting on that, we have to have an IN/OUT referendum. What if you don't like the power extension, but want to stay in the EU? You either have to vote 'out' of the whole organisation or vote 'in' and in doing so you are regarded (potentially falsely) as having given your consent to a more powerful EU.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests


    Err here's some of the other news outlets that picked up the Batten story

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27405765

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-mep-gerard-battens-home-is-targeted-by-vandals-9369620.html
    Both put it onto their websites more than 24 hours after the attacks had been reported by UKIP and Breitbart whilst the defection had been all over the place the previous day. Clearly one person quitting a party was far more important a news item than a violent attack on an MEP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests


    Err here's some of the other news outlets that picked up the Batten story

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27405765

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-mep-gerard-battens-home-is-targeted-by-vandals-9369620.html
    Maybe they have picked up on it since. The Breitbart story is a day old
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JamesM said:

    @SandyRentool

    Your understanding of the 'referendum lock' is the same as mine, it is a referendum on the specific power extension.

    This lock is to my mine more sensible than the Labour plan. There seems to be a disconnect in this idea that the next time the EU wants more power, rather than just voting on that, we have to have an IN/OUT referendum. What if you don't like the power extension, but want to stay in the EU? You either have to vote 'out' of the whole organisation or vote 'in' and in doing so you are regarded (potentially falsely) as having given your consent to a more powerful EU.

    Not power extension. Treaty change.

    On July 22nd parliament will vote on transferring power over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU. This will not trigger a referendum.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100260182/the-next-tory-plot-to-embarrass-david-cameron-on-europe-is-already-taking-shape/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    ToryJim said:

    French question: what's the French for sergeant? Not a major issue at all, but I've got some Francophone mercenaries and considering changing it to serjeant (I know that's old English, but it looks more Frenchy than sergeant).

    Its sergent
    I thought all French military titles were "le collaborateur"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests


    Err here's some of the other news outlets that picked up the Batten story

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27405765

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-mep-gerard-battens-home-is-targeted-by-vandals-9369620.html
    Both put it onto their websites more than 24 hours after the attacks had been reported by UKIP and Breitbart whilst the defection had been all over the place the previous day. Clearly one person quitting a party was far more important a news item than a violent attack on an MEP.
    Ah
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    edited May 2014

    Sean_F said:

    Com Res have UKIP 34%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD8%, Green 5%, for the Euros.

    In 2009 Labour under performed their worst poll rating of 16% in the lead up to the Euros. With Ed Miliband's current figures, I simply cannot see him adding more than 10% to his vote, or coming close to the 28%-ish that Blair polled in 1999.

    I'm a seller on Labour at anything down to 24%.
    I floated the idea of Labour third some weeks back, but it was pooh-poohed because the locals are all in Labour heartlands this time - which should drag more of their supporters to the polls than in those years when it is more broadly based.

    If Labour come third in the Euros playing with a stacked deck, they are in desperate trouble for 2015.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    So, Lib Dem and Labour now have the same referendum policy, and Nick Clegg was misleading the nation on what has been legislated by the coalition. Excellent!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    ToryJim said:

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests

    I thought the point of UKIP was to revel in their insurgent status as being up against "the machine". That being the case UKIP can't expect the establishment to just roll over and shouldn't complain when they don't. Their whole MO is that the big boys are ganging up on them, to then blue about it makes them look ridiculous. They should MTFU.
    No the point is to untangle our country from the EU

    I think the status you describe is more by accident than planned. It just happens to have turned out that way. Why supposedly impartial media feel the need to only show one side of the story is beyond me. The news that a student had left the party made the Daily Politics, Sky News, Channel 4 News etc. The brick through an MEP's window didnt make any of those programmes as far as I am aware.

    I handed out leaflets for UKIP yesterday and two people (the only two I spoke to) said "you have got my vote already, the way the other parties & media are ganging up to dig dirt on you is a disgrace", so although it doesnt fit with your agenda, it is what people are feeling.

    Of course, I expect partisan followers of parties on here to be upset, because we are gaining members and taking votes from you, but the media should be more balanced
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    French question: what's the French for sergeant? Not a major issue at all, but I've got some Francophone mercenaries and considering changing it to serjeant (I know that's old English, but it looks more Frenchy than sergeant).

    Its sergent
    I thought all French military titles were "le collaborateur"
    Now, now, just because all French soldiers are taught to salute with both hands simultaneously....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, that's a serious story (in both ways) and worthy of more dissemination. Regardless of one's views of UKIP, violent intimidation is unacceptable.

    Mr. Financier, I do wonder if the SNP would be better returning to the euro. They'll have to promise to join it anyway as part of applying for EU membership. Of course, doing it now would make Salmond look like a shilly-shallying shyster.

    Yes, not mentioned, or condemned by anyone on here.

    Labour MP's had attached UKIP leaflets to a brick, said they were going to send them back, and put the picture on twitter.. then a brick goes through a UKIP MEP's window...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests


    Err here's some of the other news outlets that picked up the Batten story

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27405765

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-mep-gerard-battens-home-is-targeted-by-vandals-9369620.html
    Maybe they have picked up on it since. The Breitbart story is a day old
    I think you're tin foiling again.

    It's well known that newspapers would rather have an excuse to print a picture of a 21 year old woman than a 45 year old man
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    French question: what's the French for sergeant? Not a major issue at all, but I've got some Francophone mercenaries and considering changing it to serjeant (I know that's old English, but it looks more Frenchy than sergeant).

    Its sergent
    I thought all French military titles were "le collaborateur"
    Now, now, just because all French soldiers are taught to salute with both hands simultaneously....
    Why do French tanks have 5 reverse gears and 1 forward gear?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Ukip has lost almost one in 10 of the county councillors who won their seats when the party made a breakthrough at last year's local elections, research by the Guardian has found.

    A year on from the May 2013 poll, the party is down by 12 county representatives out of the 139 who were elected.

    The majority of new Ukip county councillors appear to have been working actively in their communities over the past 12 months, with statistics showing they have the best attendance record of any party at more than 92% of compulsory meetings. In many areas, they have fought to limit councillor allowances and perks, campaigned against HS2 and mounted protests against EU flags being flown in town halls.

    However, the band of newly elected councillors also appears to have been plagued by a disproportionate number of controversies

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/14/ukip-lost-one-in-10-county-councillors-seats-2013
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    JamesM said:

    What if you don't like the power extension, but want to stay in the EU? You either have to vote 'out' of the whole organisation or vote 'in' and in doing so you are regarded (potentially falsely) as having given your consent to a more powerful EU.

    It is the same with Cameron's proposed referendum - either vote to stay in the EU on his new terms or vote to leave. No option to choose the status quo. It's one reason why referenda are potentially so dangerous to democracy - the value of the referendum lies entirely in the framing of the question.

    Politicians just love presenting people with false choices, because they've given up on the concept of open debate.

    You see the same thing on here, of course, because it's so much easier. We're all guilty of it, some more than others perhaps. I wouldn't dare claim the moral high ground for myself, for example.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014

    Scottish Westminster VI, table 30, p.33
    Con 18%, Green 2%, Lab 35%, LD 5%, SNP 37%, UKIP 4%.

    2010 GE, scottish result
    Con 17%, Green 1%, Lab 42%, LD 19%, SNP 20%, UKIP 1%.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests


    Err here's some of the other news outlets that picked up the Batten story

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27405765

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-mep-gerard-battens-home-is-targeted-by-vandals-9369620.html
    Both put it onto their websites more than 24 hours after the attacks had been reported by UKIP and Breitbart whilst the defection had been all over the place the previous day. Clearly one person quitting a party was far more important a news item than a violent attack on an MEP.
    Newspapers, by and large, are commercial affairs. (The BBC is not, of course.)

    Their job is to sell advertising. Of course, there are occasionally proprietors with strong political views (the Murdochs, who control The Times and the Sun, are strongly Eurosceptic, for example), and this might have some influence on editors ('Up Yours Delors!', for example).

    Nevertheless, an editor on a paper that is losing market share will not be an editor for long.

    UKIP stories sell newspapers which sell advertising.

    The extent to which we discuss and link to these stories (whatever the reason) demonstrates that the editors are doing their job and garnering readership.

    Newspapers don't exist to inform us; they exist to make money for their owners.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    Karl Turner, Labour MP attached a UKIP leaflet to a brick, tweeted a picture of it and suggested people send them back

    UKIP MEP's window is bricked

    Turner gets dug out on twitter.. and retweets them!

    Retweeted by Karl Turner MP
    David Jack Smith ‏@davidjacksmith 22h

    Dear police. Bricks thrown through windows of UKIP candidate. Have you talked to this brick lover>>@KarlTurnerMP pic.twitter.com/XXQvuKRH3p
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    With the guide of past performance,i.e.form,it is not hard to predict Clegg's response in the event of Cameron's position on his referendum pledge for 2017 being the subject of coalition talks.Will Clegg choose those deeply-held principles which led him to confront Farage over Europe and which he said would threaten 3 million jobs,or will he choose power and the trappings of power?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    isam said:

    ToryJim said:

    isam said:

    "Over the past 12 hours, Britain's media has somewhat exposed itself for being the anti-UKIP establishment that many UKIP leaders and activists have claimed in the face of derision over recent years.

    While every UK news outlet reported that Sanya-Jeet Thandi, a 21-year-old London School of Economics student decided to leave the party, only Breitbart London, then followed by the Guardian, reported the violent attack on Gerard Batten MEP's house in the early hours of Tuesday morning."

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/14/VIDEO-UKIP-rally-footage-and-protests

    I thought the point of UKIP was to revel in their insurgent status as being up against "the machine". That being the case UKIP can't expect the establishment to just roll over and shouldn't complain when they don't. Their whole MO is that the big boys are ganging up on them, to then blue about it makes them look ridiculous. They should MTFU.
    No the point is to untangle our country from the EU

    I think the status you describe is more by accident than planned. It just happens to have turned out that way. Why supposedly impartial media feel the need to only show one side of the story is beyond me. The news that a student had left the party made the Daily Politics, Sky News, Channel 4 News etc. The brick through an MEP's window didnt make any of those programmes as far as I am aware.

    I handed out leaflets for UKIP yesterday and two people (the only two I spoke to) said "you have got my vote already, the way the other parties & media are ganging up to dig dirt on you is a disgrace", so although it doesnt fit with your agenda, it is what people are feeling.

    Of course, I expect partisan followers of parties on here to be upset, because we are gaining members and taking votes from you, but the media should be more balanced
    UKIP seem to have had far more coverage than any other party, both positive and negative, one story hasn't been as widely reported as you'd like. Shame. It happens to all parties. A free press means they will decide what they think is a story. You might not like their decision but you won't get far angling for a UKIP version of Pravda.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Pete, Clegg could be against a referendum.

    His EU pension depends on him being pro-EU. As it happens, I think he's also a true believer in the EU, because he thinks it genuinely is a good thing (he's completely wrong, of course).

    An In/Out referendum was his position when he amusingly abstained on the Lisbon referendum vote, but he's since changed his mind.
This discussion has been closed.