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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has no
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know
The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip.
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Like Crassus at Carrhae, you get points for trying.
foxinsoxuk said:
Not surprisingly I differ.
While having made some mistakes (all parties do, and particularly ones that have been out of government a long time) generally I am happy with the LD ministers and their role in government. Cable has been a waste of space, but the remainder have performed well.
In the short term I expect the party to suffer, but in the longer term this will be recognised as a very competent government. The prospect of either Labour or Tory majority government red in tooth and claw is not a pleasant prospect.
The number of voters willing to give the LDs credit for being reasonably competent during a difficult governmental period is, I suspect, far less than those who would have preferred there to be no government at all which had the Tories in it.
I think the hysterical negativity surrounding the LDs and their virtual wipeouts from certain regions is out of proportion to the level of their supposed political crimes and duplicities, which is normally just the same thing all parties do, just in opposition to what those who hate them wanted, but I really don't see how even in the long term they will benefit.
In the long term, this may come to be seen as a competent government (time will tell I guess, though at the least it's somehow less dysfunctional than the previous Lab majority government), but in the long term there would not appear to be a space for a middle ground centrist party of the scale the LDs once achieved and want to remain as.
There's nothing wrong with having a smaller, niche focus as a political party, and they might achieve a more modest goal, but they still have pretensions to the numbers they achieved in recent times, and in the long term becoming the junior party to Labour that so many apparently thought they were voting for, seems the likeliest way to achieve that. More than expecting people to go 'Those LDs proved pretty ok in government, we should give them credit for partnering with the hated Tories'. The hatred is too irrational in its passion to be overcome without a change in course I think.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/29/polling-averages-and-changes-with-the-phone-pollsters-since-january/
So long as the big two fail to enthuse their bases, the LDs can scrape by on the low teens which they will probably manage in 2015 and stay true to their current course, but if they want to get more than that, a different strategy is needed I think, as the solidity of their polling for 4 years show the current course has pretty much tapped out the reserves of people willing to be convinced that it is a good thing
I actually think the Lib Dems have done a pretty good job for the most part, and, Vince aside, have mostly put the needs of the country ahead of politics. I also admire Nick Clegg for regularly putting himself out there for questions and generally answering them honestly.
However, there position on the EU is just so absurdly wrong that I would not be able to bring myself to vote for them. They are extremists on this issue and refuse to see any nuance at all. What's worse, Nick Clegg has repeatedly and knowingly used dodgy statistics to defend it (e.g. three million jobs, immigrants founding 1 in 7 UK companies etc).
twitter.com/telegraph/status/466681755970584576
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead by three points: CON 32%, LAB 35%, LD 10%, UKIP 13%
YouGov/Sun poll for European elections - Labour three points ahead of Ukip: CON 22%, LAB 28%, LD 10%, UKIP 25%, GRN 10%
Or in summary, the Tories have done literally nothing to persuade the great unwashed up here in the desolate north to vote for them. Just 1 in 8 think there is any recovery. And media focus on an election platform (the Greens, UKIP) boosts votes, so you imagine that some wavering Labour voters will waver a little less once we have had plenty of meat on the bones from this year's conference onwards.
Or, as I put it on the thread earlier, PB Tories have decided that this week's sudden mass swing not to their party is proof that there will be no more swings of any description in the next year because they have already won.....
Con minus 1, Lab plus 3, LD plus 1, UKIP minus 3, Green plus 2
(MOE)
Lab 23 (+10)
UKIP 20 (+7)
Con 16 (-10)
LDs 4 (-7)
Green 4 (+2)
SNP 2 (nc)
Plaid 1 (nc)
Green gains in Eastern England and Yorks & Humber...
twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/466653385832550400
Personally, I think the daily polls are a great data mine and a huge benefit to watchers of politics. It's not so much the daily movement that matters; it's that over the course of a month or so, you can separate out the wheat from the chaff - the rogue polls and ephemeral blips - in a way that you can't anywhere near as easily in monthly surveys.
Overall I find myself disappointed in the government, but then the principle reason I wanted a Coalition was to eliminate the deficit, and the other side wouldn't have achieved that either and didn't promise to, so there's not much reason to punish the Coalition for that failure by voting Labour as they would have been little different except in the small details, and the rest of the parliament has been a mixed bag.
And I've got a thread coming up on does swingback happen or not and will it happen next year.
Also, I've got a piece that will alarm Labour strategists and supporters, and one that even surprised me when I researched it.
We've now reached the point where a year from polling day Labour supporters claim a 3 point lead is a good poll.
Polls clear as mud: Cons ahead except when Lab is; Ukip surging unless the bubble's bursting; Lab 1st or 3rd in euros
The fun thing is, will the polls remain static like this over the next year?
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117692/fascism-returns-ukraine
Some fascinating numbers coming from the Tory/labour battleground constituencies for the GE. Come and hear them at.. http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/05/your-chance-to-join-george-osborne-lord-ashcroft-douglas-carswell-timmontgomerie-at-conservativehomes-spring-conference.html …
Does this sound good or bad news for the tories.
TNS and ComRes gave much higher UKIP numbers, but we haven't heard from them for a fortnight.
When you're struggling with something to write for a thread, there's something in YouGov you can use for a thread.
https://rockysmith.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/squirrel.jpg?w=500
Yes, the Tories have something of a problem picking up votes but do you not think Labour has a problem too?
Don't just look at one poll, look at the broad trend.
As Mike keeps on telling me (as Sir Bob Worcester kept on telling Mike), don't focus on the leads, look at the share of the vote for each party.
Three points is rubbish but it's better than a two point deficit.
david_herdson said:
» show previous quotes
The Liberals were part of the National government in the early '30s, so more like eighty years.
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They were also part of Churchill's wartime coalition.
This is going to be fun.
@KellySotherton: I struggle to listen to Milliband on this party political broadcast. To me I can't be enthused. I feel he needs to blow his nose.
If 25% of 2010 Lab voters are now responding 'Don't Know' or refusing to answer, and if a further 5% are saying they'll vote UKIP, and if (as is the case) there are substantial shifts in support for the other parties, then it follows that the situation remains fluid and the polls don't yet tell us very much. This should be no surprise, especially given the error bars on Stephen Fisher's projections from current polling.
"Revealed: Cricket's new fixing scandal"
Former Test player hands ICC most detailed evidence of corruption ever. Players named in England and all over the world.
'Although a UKIP win in 2014 would be a fairly clear message that people dislike immigrants'
You really believe this ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership
Anti-corruption forces are investigating the most detailed evidence yet of widespread fixing across the cricketing world.
Telegraph Sport can reveal that Lou Vincent, the former New Zealand batsman, has provided officials from the International Cricket Council’s anti-corruption unit with a treasure trove of information about matches which were targeted for spot-fixing and the names of players who were involved.
Domestic matches played by English counties are among those about which Vincent has provided detailed evidence from the period when he was playing for Lancashire and Sussex, along with details of fixing in at least four other countries.
He has also informed them of the details of an approach by another corrupt player to a current international captain, who turned down the offer and reported it to anti-corruption officials.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/10832310/Cricket-rocked-by-new-fixing-evidence-from-New-Zealands-former-batsman-Lou-Vincent.html
I do believe that, yes. Perhaps I'd phrase it as immigration instead of immigrants personally, but the public have always believed immigration was too high (going back decades) and the salience of this issue is at pretty much record highs (unlike EU salience, btw). So I do believe the rise of UKIP both correlates and is linked with the rise of anti-immigration sentiment.
So all that changing of the income tax threshold was for nothing if none of the 99% are better off I guess.
This Bloomberg story on the unpublished poll is astonishing. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-13/cameron-said-to-weigh-more-autonomy-for-scots-before-vote.html …
'Scots Seen Slipping Away Makes U.K. Seek Silver Bullet
As Prime Minister David Cameron visits Scotland this week to support the campaign to hold the U.K. together, the Treasury in London is preparing the latest document setting out the fiscal arguments over independence.
The U.K. government is waking up to the fact that it is losing control of the debate over Scottish independence and needs to come up with more convincing proposals to sway voters, two government officials said.
Private polling conducted on behalf of the government suggests support for independence in Scotland is growing irrespective of the arguments advanced by Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives, his Liberal Democrat coalition partner and the opposition Labour Party, said the officials, who asked not to be named because the government discussions are private.
Some ministers see Cameron as having been complacent about the Sept. 18 referendum and that more needs to be done to bolster the case for keeping Scotland in the 307-year-old union, the officials said. The government is considering granting extra powers to Scotland before then as it searches for a silver bullet to stop the vote slipping away from the “No” camp, according to one of the officials.
“The Scottish Parliament has started a journey and the direction of travel is to continue to give further powers,” John Stevenson, a Scot who represents Carlisle in northern England on behalf of Cameron’s Conservatives, said in an interview. “So far the ‘No’ campaign has concentrated on the accountants, the economic argument. We’ve got to widen that and be a positive argument for the union.” '
http://tinyurl.com/lyawpct
It is the top 0.5% that get all the benefit, get real.
I do it for about 6 weeks a year, in 2 week bursts and it leaves me knackered and drained.