politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls aren’t moving but Labour shouldn’t be too concerned

Excellent thread Southam, well done.

IshmaelZ said:

I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.

IshmaelZ said:

MaxPB said:

IshmaelZ said:

I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.

Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.

Hancock takes the blame for a lot of that.

9th

FPT.

As a contrarian to those who aren't keen on the fuss about VE Day I think it can mean a lot to those from that generation still with us. And we should be grateful we still have some with us ... I was young for the comparable anniversary for WWI and didn't fully comprehend it's importance then, now there's nobody left from then.

My wife's put a lot of effort into VE Day commemorations in the home she works at, they've been doing things through this week and it's been very much appreciated. She said yesterday there were a couple of people who'd fought in the war smiling with tears in their eyes.

Like anything in life it can be abused but this anniversary is significant and meaningful to many we are fortunate to still have with us. We shouldn't take that for granted while we bicker about other things. We should pay less attention to those who abuse it and more attention to those we should appreciate.

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

MaxPB said:

IshmaelZ said:

I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.

Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.

Not sure why the government get blamed for "Ferguson". Even though his code / model are out dated, he is the countries leading expert on this and has been called upon by governments of all shades.

And Turkish PPE, every country has got burned during this crisis. UK government got burned worse than some gowns from Turkey e.g. the antibody tests and fairly regular for PPE from China not to be what it says it is...and that is what the rest of Europe have experienced.

NHS app (i have been critical) but we dont know that it is a disaster yet.

So we have a useless expert with homemade crap outdated model as our best , numerous disasters on buying crap by having crap procurement, crap design of an APP purely for jingoistic , wanting to spy on people.
Do they have any plus points or can they get any worse.

Manchester City and England defender Kyle Walker says he feels he is "being harassed" after it was reported he had broken social distancing rules again.

Can't a man have a sex party during lockdown without attracting criticism...its just plain harassment is what it is.

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It wasn't - the Editor of the Jewish Chronicle tweeted in his defence.....a while since he's done that for a Labour leader!

FrancisUrquhart said:

IshmaelZ said:

MaxPB said:

IshmaelZ said:

I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.

Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.

Not sure why the government get blamed for "Ferguson". Even though his code / model are out dated, he is the countries leading expert on this and has been called upon by governments of all shades.

He’s been fiddling Staats though.

Damn. Just posted my brilliant interview advice on the last thread if anyone cares.

Also, on the subject of being allowed to learn from expensive mistakes, the classic example is (well, apart from innumerable ministers over the decades) Jacob Rees-Mogg who famously was forgiven a $4 million mistake in the over a City takeover in a job he'd only got because Lloyd George (grandson of ...) knew his father, and now he's got more money than the Queen.

Excellent thread - I remember when that poll came out of Labour member's preferred leader with Starmer on top thinking "they're serious about getting back into government". Starmer still has a lot of stable cleaning to do, and the Labour brand has undoubtedly been tarnished - but as you observe he has time on his side and the choices that lie ahead for the government are a procession of lesser evils.

Starmer's the real deal.

I think most importantly no one feels the 'fear' which people would have with Corbyn. He's on the left, but he's not going to do anything stupid. He doesn't say anything stupid, he's not got the mad outrunners which just want to watch the world burn. Sure he might push taxes up and make the rich pay more, but he's not going to destroy the engines.

He seems to truly respect people, and people across the political spectrum.

Starmer thing was unfortunate, better have just said oh I need to get my daughter. But it isn't a big deal and won't even register, unless it becomes a pattern of appearing to only do things for the photo op. But he is too smart to make a such clumsy sounding slip up again.

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.

Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.

Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.

And still to this today has cosy Zoom chats with them.

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It came across as treating something that should be spontaneous, into something he wanted to be scripted and stage-managed.

In the grand scheme of things though, it's tomorrow's chip paper - assuming he doesn't make a habit of such slip-ups that could develop into a media 'narrative'.

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.

Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.

Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.

And still to this today has cosy Zoom chats with them.

Please tell me that was a very unfunny attempt at a joke.

NickPalmer said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted), and the party rating should slowly come back to him.

LotO is a nightmare job during a serious crisis, it's difficult to strike the right tone between holding the government to account, and micro-analysing decisions made under extreme pressure with the benefit of perfect hindsight.

As we move to the post-lockdown phase, there will be somewhat more time for politics-as-usual, and Starmer will be able to highlight people who fall through the cracks of the various government programmes, as the decisions taken by ministers will be more political rather than scientific in nature.

His biggest issue is still going to be party management, the hard left are still trying to dominate where they can, and are using very inflammatory language to describe government actions that goes down poorly with the public.

He's getting a good honeymoon period with the membership, though there are always a few outliers. We had a virtual CLP meeting last night and the unanmimous feeling (from Corbynites like me to union activists to Labour Firsters) was that he'd made a good start and we shouldn't expect too much for now since the LOTO barely registers in the news. We felt the current Zoomed PMQs were both far more interesting watching than the traditional bearpit and also ideal for Starmer - we were agnostic on how he'd do in a chamber full of shouty people, but that's not expected any time soon.

Go back to before the lockdown and PMQs was already quiet because Tory whips told their side to STFU in order that Boris could hear the questions and think. What little noise there now is comes from Labour, and that's mainly "hear, hear" and similar meaningless utterances. It is interesting, in this light, to wonder if Tory barracking over the years actively harmed their own leaders.

It will be interesting to see what CCHQ comes up with if SKS continues to do well. Paternity leave; overseas summits; reversion to two sessions so SKS has only three questions each time, making it harder to develop an argument and giving Boris two "last words"?

ThomasNashe said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Manchester City and England defender Kyle Walker says he feels he is "being harassed" after it was reported he had broken social distancing rules again.

Can't a man have a sex party during lockdown without attracting criticism...its just plain harassment is what it is.

These are tough times for the prostitution industry, and I think we should all pay a little more respect to a man public-spirited enough to want to do his bit to help out.

Now SeanT has mellowed out a bit, I'm sure its been very trying times.

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.

Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.

Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.

And still to this today has cosy Zoom chats with them.

Please tell me that was a very unfunny attempt at a joke.

Nope...

https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/corbyn-joins-abbott-ribeiro-addy-anther-antisemitic-zoom-chat/

IshmaelZ said:

MaxPB said:

IshmaelZ said:

I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.

Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.

I think you are being unfair

1. Care homes - that was either an oversight or a deliberate consequence of a desire to protect capacity in the NHS at all costs. It’s fair to blame the government. But it’s interesting that every other government made the same choice

2. Late lockdown - he followed the guidance from SAGE. That’s the right thing to do.

3. Turkish PPE - until you have it you can’t test it. I’d rather money was wasted buying stuff on spec than not having enough. Has any hospital *actually* run out of PPE?

4. Ferguson. Why is one mans inability to keep his duck in his pants and his willingness to break the rules the governments fault? 😏

5. NHS App. haven’t followed the story closely enough. But if it’s no good then that is blameworthy

I don’t see 5 as being more than a Hancock level issue. 1 might be, depending on the fact pattern

I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

MaxPB said:

Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.

I haven't put these up for a while.
Brazil, Russia, India, Nigeria still fairly exponential. Europe leveling out as is well known.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.

Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.

Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.

Corbyn's problem with antisemitism was two-fold. First, there really were active and noisy antisemites readmitted up north. More importantly, the definition of antisemitism changed to encompass being anti-Israel (as the Jewish state) thus condemning Corbyn's decades of interference in the Middle East. Corbyn was not anti-Jewish in the classic sense. Indeed, given Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder, it is telling that his enemies could not even find him using the y-word to describe Spurs.

So not using the y-word means you're not an anti-Semite? Low bar you're setting there.

I suppose maybe Jews just needed to get a better understanding of English irony ...

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.

Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.

Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.

And still to this today has cosy Zoom chats with them.

Please tell me that was a very unfunny attempt at a joke.

Terrorists giving Zoom bombing a whole new meaning?

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

kinabalu said:

I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

They might get to a hung parliment. But I can't see overturning a 80 seat majority to another majority in one sitting. Not unless they change the situation in Scotland, which doesn't look like it's happening anytime soon, unless the SNP implode.

kinabalu said:

I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

Taxes are not going up, Boris and Sunak will borrow rather than put up tax

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

I was interested to read that the British actually had an immense navy serving under US command in the final months of the war, and that huge British forces were ear-marked for the invasion of Japan, had it gone ahead.

kinabalu said:

I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1258727645480714240

An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

Just back from a nice walk around town, and the news from this corner of Hertfordshire is that I'm confident for the first time that the lockdown is disintegrating.

The numbers out exercising don't appear to be excessive, and the train station car park is as quiet as usual, but the roads are definitely busier. Maybe not quite as busy as on a normal bank holiday, but not a million miles from it.

Methinks that the public are moving out of lockdown ahead of Government, just as they were one step ahead going into it. Yes, some of the extra traffic is probably shopping-related (there was a queue outside Morrisons in town, so experience suggests that the one at Tesco will be very much lengthier,) but I reckon there's also quite a lot of family visiting going on.

If the car journey stats in the Government daily briefings don't show a continued uptick, relative to previous weeks, in the coming days then I shall be surprised.

state_go_away said:

What's everyone reading during lockdown ? I am not a great fiction reader but read some non fiction in the last 7 weeks including

The Games - David Goldblatt (history of the Olympics)
The Crucibles greatest matches -Hector Nunns (I love snooker and any "pub" game)
Who dares wins -Dominic Sandbrook (Britain 1979-1982)
The medal factory - About British Cycling and its recent triumphs and tribulations.
A better betting with a decent fellow - A social history of Bookmaking
A short history of Europe - Simon Jenkins
A short history of London -Simon Jenkins
Ghosts at the table - a history of poker
Airhead -Emily Maitlis

Quite proud of myself even if all on my sort of hobbies!

That's a good effort in 7 weeks. I've managed only a Japanese novel by David Mitchell and approx 100 pages of Alistair Campbell's diaries - this latter quite a test of resilience and willpower.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

Was last night a slip up ?

The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".

It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.

Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.

Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.

Corbyn's problem with antisemitism was two-fold. First, there really were active and noisy antisemites readmitted up north. More importantly, the definition of antisemitism changed to encompass being anti-Israel (as the Jewish state) thus condemning Corbyn's decades of interference in the Middle East. Corbyn was not anti-Jewish in the classic sense. Indeed, given Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder, it is telling that his enemies could not even find him using the y-word to describe Spurs.

Rubbish. Corbyn’s problem was he disliked Jews unless they shared his profoundly anti-Jewish beliefs (which is oddly not that uncommon).

You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.

And incidentally his refusal to admit it and his repeated lies on the matter demonstrates his moral cowardice, although I know this conflicts with his carefully crafted public image.

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

And yet stock exchanges in Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt are apparently open for business.

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

Brexit has square root of nothing to do with it.

Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis and the end of one of the worst evils the world has ever seen. Today's mundane international politics isn't relevant.

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.

Did not for Kinnock in 1992 after 13 years of Tory rule, though he made gains, did for Cameron in 2010 after 13 years of Labour rule but still not enough for a Tory majority

Interesting to see the changes since 2010, Torbay just declared as a LD hold, now a big Tory majority, Putney as a Tory hold, now gained by Labour.

Kingswood as a Tory gain, the only seat still Tory

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1258727645480714240

I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

Brexit has square root of nothing to do with it.

Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis and the end of one of the worst evils the world has ever seen. Today's mundane international politics isn't relevant.

Which Europe? 1945 also saw half of Europe occupied by the Soviets for over 40 years...

Sean_F said:

kinabalu said:

I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.

Yes indeed - it will be time for a change.

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder if that perception, which is entirely understandable, might be focusing on the wrong thing.

Maybe it's as much to do with the unacceptable opposition becoming acceptable as the state of the Government.

[That said, if I were Starmer I'd rather face Boris Johnson than Rishi Sunak].

kinabalu said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1258727645480714240

I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.

more popgun than bazooka

RobD said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

And yet stock exchanges in Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt are apparently open for business.

VE day isn't normally a bank holiday. It was for the 75th anniversary.

My point was (in response to HYUFD) that the UK is apparently taking it more seriously than our European friends.

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich

The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

And yet stock exchanges in Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt are apparently open for business.

VE day isn't normally a bank holiday. It was for the 75th anniversary.

IIRC it was also in 1995 (50th anniversary).

Well remembered. 8 May 1995 was a Monday so the holiday was postponed by a week. On that occasion it may have been flagged up well in advance, before calendars were printed.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

Brexit has square root of nothing to do with it.

Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis and the end of one of the worst evils the world has ever seen. Today's mundane international politics isn't relevant.

It does actually to some degree.

80% of Leavers think it is right to celebrate VE Day but only 61% of Remainers do
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/arts/survey-results/daily/2020/04/29/70023/1?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Daily_Questions&utm_campaign=Question_2

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?

Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.

Yes, we can celebrate VJ Day too