politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: It’s Not Your Fault
Comments
-
Fahrenheit 451 fast approaching.CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=201 -
Thanks to Max, Blair, Egg, Topping, Richard and others for their comments on the earlier thread.
My first fee alone is well in excess of the £1,000 so I will simply write to HMRC and ask them about going the SA system.
Thanks again everyone.0 -
That's what a second rate Public School education does for you - same for Piers!FrancisUrquhart said:Jeremy Corbyn's conspiracy theorist brother, 73, leads his third anti-lockdown protest after claiming Covid is being used by the 'new world order' to inject Britons with MICROCHIPS
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8284129/Jeremy-Corbyns-brother-73-leads-anti-lockdown-protest-Covid-19-conspiracy-theory.html
David Icke has been on the phone complaining that this guy is making him look too sane for his USP to enable him to flog his books.
0 -
UK as a whole:Stocky said:
Is that just England? Can you provide a source or link for this?Sunil_Prasannan said:Peak deaths across all settings (inc. care homes) was 1,172 on April 20th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
Deaths on 19/4 = 19,051
Deaths on 20/4 = 20,223
20,223 - 19,051 = 1,172.1 -
-
Not really shocking, given this kind of crap....CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=20
Oxford University students have voted against “ableist, classist and misogynistic” reading lists, claiming that they should not be forced to engage with any “hateful material”. Students should not be required to attend any lectures, tutorials or seminars, nor should they have to sit exams, which involve “hate speech” against a particular group, according to a new policy that the university’s student union has adopted.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/oxford-university-students-vote-block-ableist-classist-misogynistic/
No I will no educate myself about any of history, because they were all racist, xenophobic, homophobic, trans-phobic, sexist, classist bigots.1 -
You'll forgive me if I take them a pinch of salt then.Philip_Thompson said:
Sky News were broadcasting a conference where that was quoted.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Where are you getting the figures from?Philip_Thompson said:Why is the UK the biggest donor to finding a vaccine? Good that we are doing so, but why aren't others with bigger economies donating more too?
0 -
Costa had to close a Manchester drive-thru on the first day of opening after queues got 'too big'
The coffee brand intended for the drive-thrus to be open to key workers
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/costa-close-manchester-drive-thru-181939680 -
https://twitter.com/Numberopinion/status/1257246885229867008?s=20CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=201 -
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1255590145337810946RochdalePioneers said:
What makes me laugh more isn't the idea of Hilldog being parachuted in, its the DNC holding a virtual convention where delegate after delegate avows and affirms that Biden is the Best Person to be the candidate. Against any other GOP candidate Biden would not be anywhere near the ticket for all the obvious reasons. Are the DNC still delusional enough to think that because Trump is So Hated they can run a geriatric dodgepot who falls asleep on TV sets whilst they interview him about his sexual abuse of power allegations?Alistair said:The Obama into 100/1 move was due to this batshit insane article
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/12570505668171857920 -
0
-
It was an EU Conference where it was quoted.FeersumEnjineeya said:
You'll forgive me if I take them a pinch of salt then.Philip_Thompson said:
Sky News were broadcasting a conference where that was quoted.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Where are you getting the figures from?Philip_Thompson said:Why is the UK the biggest donor to finding a vaccine? Good that we are doing so, but why aren't others with bigger economies donating more too?
0 -
The thing is if there was some suggestion that Gove was antisemitic and regularly promoted the sort of opinions espoused in the Bell Curve, all these people might have a point. The fact is he has a long record of the absolute opposite...1
-
Handwashing advice.Malmesbury said:0 -
How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.0 -
0
-
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:0 -
Well haven't you been accused of Islamophobia before by some geniuses on the twitter?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
Personally, I always had you down as a secret BNP member. Its the thinking Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie that gives it away.0 -
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1257287304508563464FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/Numberopinion/status/1257246885229867008?s=20CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=200 -
One further point about the Wuhan lab conspiracy is that epidemiology suggests the epidemic didn't necessarily originate in Hubei province. The only connection to the lab is the circumstantial evidence that the lab is very close to the meat market where the Chinese government originally said the outbreak originated. We now know for sure that the epidemic started a month or so earlier than the Wuhan market outbreak, making the lab connection moot.
There is some evidence that the epidemic may have started further south in China. See https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/could-covid-19-be-manmade-what-we-know-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus0 -
And being a Zionist.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well haven't you been accused of Islamophobia before?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
0 -
Not necessarily.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
Its helped drive the R below 1 and made it stay at below 1, that is critical. If handwash advice left it only at 1 then numbers would plateau but not fall.
Plus if people eased off on the handwashing advice R could have started to rise again.
Realistically we won't know for a while if ever.1 -
Have you got any black shorts?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
Quite a few years ago, I was walking through the centre of Oxford after doing some horse riding. I was getting some looks. I realised that black riding jeans, with black riding boots and a black shirt was probably being misunderstood...1 -
Just been for my walk and met a (once upon a time) drinking friend ...... well, stood 2-3 m away from and conducted a quite load conversation. Told me he'd just seen another frequenter of of our town's pubs who has actually had, and recovered from, coronavirus, although he had been, apparently, very ill. Chap's a regular attender at hospital.... lot's of quite nasty things wrong with him and actually attending outpatients was blamed for him catching the virus.
A second case was then quoted, a work colleague of my friend, who's acquired the virus the same way.
I'm due to have a cancer check-up shortly..........0 -
I didn't realise IDS read anything.Sandpit said:
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1257287304508563464FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/Numberopinion/status/1257246885229867008?s=20CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=200 -
I’ve got black shorts and shirts.Malmesbury said:
Have you got any black shorts?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
Quite a few years ago, I was walking through the centre of Oxford after doing some horse riding. I was getting some looks. I realised that black riding jeans, with black riding boots and a black shirt was probably being misunderstood...
My default colour for suits is brown, replete with brown shirts.0 -
According to this graph the handwashing thing made a massive difference. This might give a clue into how this virus is spread. Hardly anyone wore a mask in that period, so touching hands must be a bigger spreader of it than via oral ways.Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
Its helped drive the R below 1 and made it stay at below 1, that is critical. If handwash advice left it only at 1 then numbers would plateau but not fall.
Plus if people eased off on the handwashing advice R could have started to rise again.
Realistically we won't know for a while if ever.0 -
King Cole, best of luck.0
-
.
I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:1 -
I went to a talk by David Shayler at The Oxford Union. To be honest, I thought it was excellent stand-up comedy.0
-
How do we think who will respond?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.0 -
Fascist Authors - checkTheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve got black shorts and shirts.Malmesbury said:
Have you got any black shorts?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
Quite a few years ago, I was walking through the centre of Oxford after doing some horse riding. I was getting some looks. I realised that black riding jeans, with black riding boots and a black shirt was probably being misunderstood...
My default colour for suits is brown, replete with brown shirts.
Black Shorts - check
You are Roderick Spode and I claim my 5 Reichmarks in Mefo bills0 -
Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.0
-
Calculating R from the publicly available data does not seem to be a perfectly precise process. There are no error bars on this.RobD said:.
I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
0 -
Dunno about anyone else, but I've never had a cold since someone told me three years ago to scrub my hands and under my fingernails a few times a day.Philip_Thompson said:
Handwashing advice.Malmesbury said:1 -
Wasn't there some graph doing the rounds even before lockdown showing people admitted to hospital with gastroenteritis had fallen off a cliff because people were actually washing their hands?Philip_Thompson said:
Handwashing advice.Malmesbury said:
Basically, if everyone practised more rigorous handwashing - I'm sure there's a high proportion of people out there even know who hardly wash their hands - we wouldn't be in this level of shit.0 -
Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.
*It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.0 -
Lots of the US problems come down to education...its piss poor.Malmesbury said:
Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.
*It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.0 -
Indeed, the strongest evidence that the pandemic started in China in November is precisely because the Influenza-Like Illness warning system started parting from the norm in about the 2nd week of November, and went haywire thereafter. Absent similar evidence in the UK, I'd doubt it arrived much sooner than we knew.Philip_Thompson said:
I make no pretensions to be a virologist but Occam's Razor makes it very, very unlikely to me.Nigel_Foremain said:
Says PB's resident eminent virologist.Philip_Thompson said:
I very, very much doubt it. But I think that there are simply many more asymptomatic carriers.NerysHughes said:
My guess is that it is the same here. I think its been here since November/DecemberPhilip_Thompson said:
That's quite some iceberg!FrancisUrquhart said:More than 10 times as many people in Germany have likely been infected with the coronavirus than the number of confirmed cases, researchers from the University of Bonn have concluded from a field trial in one of the worst hit towns.
Given how contagious this disease is and how quickly it spreads and how quickly it can lead to a spike in deaths and hospital admissions then if this was here back in November then even if we didn't realise that is why people were sick why didn't we a spike in hospital admissions? Why didn't we see a spike in deaths? Why did early testing have over 95% test negative for so long? Why did we only see a spike in deaths a couple of weeks ago when the outbreak was known to happen?
The idea that it was here in November but people weren't dying from it until March just seems illogical. Why were death rates unmoved from average (or ever down from average) over the whole winter until March?
I'm no virologist and don't claim to be but I can read statistics and that just makes zero sense.1 -
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
0 -
That's the Conference I was talking about earlier where it was said that the UK has given more than any other nation.williamglenn said:1 -
Do they have to or something?williamglenn said:0 -
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
0 -
Lisa Nandy's background making her look like she's out of a Margaret Atwood novel?OldKingCole said:
I didn't realise IDS read anything.Sandpit said:
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1257287304508563464FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/Numberopinion/status/1257246885229867008?s=20CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=200 -
No. You must be eligible to become President to become President.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
If President and VP died simultaneously and Obama was Speaker of the House then my understanding is that the President pro tempore of the Senate as 3rd in the line of succession would become President.0 -
The important news of course is that the US administration is doubling down on the Wuhan lab conspiracy apparently without any basis.FF43 said:One further point about the Wuhan lab conspiracy is that epidemiology suggests the epidemic didn't necessarily originate in Hubei province. The only connection to the lab is the circumstantial evidence that the lab is very close to the meat market where the Chinese government originally said the outbreak originated. We now know for sure that the epidemic started a month or so earlier than the Wuhan market outbreak, making the lab connection moot.
There is some evidence that the epidemic may have started further south in China. See https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/could-covid-19-be-manmade-what-we-know-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus0 -
Maybe there is something there, but there is more to it than just that.FrancisUrquhart said:
Lots of the US problems come down to education...its piss poor.Malmesbury said:
Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.
*It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.0 -
People genuinely seem to believe that having guns protects them from the government, but it doesn't stop the USA incarcerating so many of its citizens.Malmesbury said:
Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happenMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.
*It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.0 -
Hey, Rob. May the Fourth be with youRobD said:
0 -
Draft guidance for getting people back to work during the coronavirus pandemic could compromise worker safety, the head of the TUC has warned.
Frances O'Grady, who leads the group representing UK unions, said it cannot back the advice in its "current form".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52533375
The clue is in the name, draft...1 -
How do you think who will respond?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.0 -
In addition to the claim Germany has 10x as many cases as officially confirmed..The study also found that more than one in five people infected showed no symptoms.0
-
That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.RobD said:
So it bombed then?FrancisUrquhart said:I somehow doubt Witty and Vallance get stuck into this type of stuff in their SAGE meetings...
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257277717944426497?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278835873251331?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278392354975746?s=200 -
I’ll be denounced as an Islamophobe and the person that complained to Mike years ago that I was an Islamphobe because I said that I really wouldn’t want devout Muslims as neighbours.Sunil_Prasannan said:
How do you think who will respond?TheScreamingEagles said:How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?
I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.
0 -
That is what they called themselves "Independent Sage".kle4 said:
That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.RobD said:
So it bombed then?FrancisUrquhart said:I somehow doubt Witty and Vallance get stuck into this type of stuff in their SAGE meetings...
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257277717944426497?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278835873251331?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278392354975746?s=200 -
Not really sure that I see the point in this article. There are 2 issues: was this China's fault and have we dealt with this as well as we could have done? Even if the answer to the first is yes governments are accountable for the second.
So far as China is concerned it is extremely unlikely that there is anything deliberate about this at all. Incompetence may well have played a part but exogenous viruses have caused enough problems for them to be a legitimate matter for study. At the end of the day I am not sure negligence or incompetence would be a particular game changer here.0 -
It's not really, it's in line with the data from New York. They also seem to have roughly 10 undetected cases for every detected case. My hunch is that the UK will prove to be about the same level.Philip_Thompson said:
That's quite some iceberg!FrancisUrquhart said:More than 10 times as many people in Germany have likely been infected with the coronavirus than the number of confirmed cases, researchers from the University of Bonn have concluded from a field trial in one of the worst hit towns.
The idea that there is a vast asymptomatic iceberg which means we can go back to normal without a huge number of deaths is increasingly implausible. Even for Germany these current figures give an IFR around 0.4%. Let the virus run through the population and a hell of a lot of Germans would die.
You would need the undetected cases to be something like 100 x the current known cases for that idea to have any merit. i.e. To get to a bad seasonal flu type of scenario.
There are simply far to many people who could still catch the virus and die to do anything other than maintain quite strict measures.0 -
So easy to confuse them with:FrancisUrquhart said:
That is what they called themselves "Independent Sage".kle4 said:
That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.RobD said:
So it bombed then?FrancisUrquhart said:I somehow doubt Witty and Vallance get stuck into this type of stuff in their SAGE meetings...
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257277717944426497?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278835873251331?s=20
https://twitter.com/Starcourse/status/1257278392354975746?s=20
https://www.sage.com/en-gb/0 -
The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.0
-
0
-
That sort of crap happened pre TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.0
-
Surely that cannot count as being elected president?Malmesbury said:
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
0 -
One-in-five to one-in-three seem to be where most estimates for asymptotic cases are heading. That suggests no "iceberg", but also that fatality rates are 0.5-0.8%.FrancisUrquhart said:In addition to the claim Germany has 10x as many cases as officially confirmed..The study also found that more than one in five people infected showed no symptoms.
0 -
Best wishes OKCOldKingCole said:Just been for my walk and met a (once upon a time) drinking friend ...... well, stood 2-3 m away from and conducted a quite load conversation. Told me he'd just seen another frequenter of of our town's pubs who has actually had, and recovered from, coronavirus, although he had been, apparently, very ill. Chap's a regular attender at hospital.... lot's of quite nasty things wrong with him and actually attending outpatients was blamed for him catching the virus.
A second case was then quoted, a work colleague of my friend, who's acquired the virus the same way.
I'm due to have a cancer check-up shortly..........0 -
I'd argue that was more true of the G. W. Bush USA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If they want to go round shooting each other, that's their business.0 -
I don't know how verifiable theses numbers are, but it looks like:isam said:
Good advice on hand washing, combined with i'f you wouldn't mind please don't go down the pub' was all that was needed to bring this horrible deseise to an R of less than 1. (probably also TV images of hospitals in Italy as well)
Ripping away all our freedoms with the lock-down vertaualy no change.
I am going to sound like a broken record, sorry about that, but when this is all over and more complete data comes out I don't want people saying nobody advocated against a lock-down.
P.S. the more resent drop of in R, will be at leset in part because start of the 'herd immunity' effect and possible also the wormier weather and more sun-lite having a small influence.0 -
The caption says it was calculated from "NHS England hospital deaths data." How in f*ck's name do they think they could calculate all that intricate up-and-down of Rt before 8 March, when the first death was reported on 7 March and the second on 8 March?RobD said:.
I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
Pure unadulterated bullshit.1 -
The attitudes leading to this were never encouraged by the POTUS before Trump.Floater said:
That sort of crap happened pre TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Vlad hates everything to do with the EU, so does Trump, so does Farage. I wonder what the connection is? If the EU could find an absolute cure for cancer then Trump and his equivalent nutters on this side of the pond would convince themselves not to trust it and Russian bots would try and discredit it.RobD said:
Do they have to or something?williamglenn said:0 -
Becoming President doesn't require election, it does require eligibility.Alistair said:
Surely that cannot count as being elected president?Malmesbury said:
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
0 -
In one post the very reason why for non COVID issues hospitals are quiet summed up.OldKingCole said:Just been for my walk and met a (once upon a time) drinking friend ...... well, stood 2-3 m away from and conducted a quite load conversation. Told me he'd just seen another frequenter of of our town's pubs who has actually had, and recovered from, coronavirus, although he had been, apparently, very ill. Chap's a regular attender at hospital.... lot's of quite nasty things wrong with him and actually attending outpatients was blamed for him catching the virus.
A second case was then quoted, a work colleague of my friend, who's acquired the virus the same way.
I'm due to have a cancer check-up shortly..........0 -
You may be surprised but I agree with youNigel_Foremain said:
Vlad hates everything to do with the EU, so does Trump, so does Farage. I wonder what the connection is? If the EU could find an absolute cure for cancer then Trump and his equivalent nutters on this side of the pond would convince themselves not to trust it and Russian bots would try and discredit it.RobD said:
Do they have to or something?williamglenn said:0 -
I'm no fan of Trump but plenty of bat shit crazy behaviour in the USA and elsewhere to be fair before Tump.Philip_Thompson said:
The attitudes leading to this were never encouraged by the POTUS before Trump.Floater said:
That sort of crap happened pre TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Keep running with the pseudoscience. Do you know, according to the current POTUS, (a man who claims to have an unverified IQ of over 200), you might be able to inject yourself with disinfectant? (Actually, please don't do this, it really is a bad idea, and will probably kill you)BigRich said:
I don't know how verifiable theses numbers are, but it looks like:isam said:
Good advice on hand washing, combined with i'f you wouldn't mind please don't go down the pub' was all that was needed to bring this horrible deseise to an R of less than 1. (probably also TV images of hospitals in Italy as well)
Ripping away all our freedoms with the lock-down vertaualy no change.
I am going to sound like a broken record, sorry about that, but when this is all over and more complete data comes out I don't want people saying nobody advocated against a lock-down.
P.S. the more resent drop of in R, will be at leset in part because start of the 'herd immunity' effect and possible also the wormier weather and more sun-lite having a small influence.0 -
The probability of it being manmade are so infinitesimally small as to be effectively zero. The probability of it being man-isolated from the natural reservoir of wild types is, however, well within the bounds of possibility.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.
The probability of it being deliberately released are, IMO, close to zero also. But, if the virus had been isolated and propogated in the lab without staff realizing that it was capable of the zoonotic leap (and hence were not necessarily treating it as a human pathogen), given its high R0 absent containment efforts, I think the probability of accidental laboratory acquired infection and subsequent human to human transmission outside of the lab would be quite high.0 -
Well the graph would have to be very wrong for your analysis to be incorrect.BigRich said:
I don't know how verifiable theses numbers are, but it looks like:isam said:
Good advice on hand washing, combined with i'f you wouldn't mind please don't go down the pub' was all that was needed to bring this horrible deseise to an R of less than 1. (probably also TV images of hospitals in Italy as well)
Ripping away all our freedoms with the lock-down vertaualy no change.
I am going to sound like a broken record, sorry about that, but when this is all over and more complete data comes out I don't want people saying nobody advocated against a lock-down.
P.S. the more resent drop of in R, will be at leset in part because start of the 'herd immunity' effect and possible also the wormier weather and more sun-lite having a small influence.0 -
Prior Presidents denounced the crazies not encouraged them though.Floater said:
I'm no fan of Trump but plenty of bat shit crazy behaviour in the USA and elsewhere to be fair before Tump.Philip_Thompson said:
The attitudes leading to this were never encouraged by the POTUS before Trump.Floater said:
That sort of crap happened pre TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:1 -
But the 22nd only prohibits being elected president.Philip_Thompson said:
Becoming President doesn't require election, it does require eligibility.Alistair said:
Surely that cannot count as being elected president?Malmesbury said:
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
0 -
I could swear that 4-5 weeks ago we were being told that had had no effect.isam said:
0 -
yes the CCP should not be scrutinisedAlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.
0 -
?Alistair said:
Surely that cannot count as being elected president?Malmesbury said:
Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.Alistair said:
So Obama can still become president again then.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).Alistair said:Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?
The question was about Congress.
- Yes, Obama could get elected to Congress.
- Yes, the speaker of the House of Representatives is in the line of succession
- Yes, in theory the House could elect Congressman Obama as the Speaker of the House
- No, he wouldn't be eligible to become president, so the succession list would go round him, as it were.0 -
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.
0 -
"Method: NHS England #covid deaths data, backdating 23 days from deaths (5 days infection => symptoms + 18 days symptoms => death), and assuming a serial interval of 5 days."isam said:
Tweak those parameters even a tiny bit and you get Rt going under 1 coinciding with Lockdown instead of hand washing.0 -
There is certainly a case that Trump is the foreseeable even if unintended consequence of changes to the GOP under GW Bush, especially extreme partisanship and the idea the facts do not matter -- remember truthiness? But let us not pretend American politics was clean before then: Reagan's Iran-Contra affair; Watergate under Nixon, of course; Vietnam; Iran; Central America.tlg86 said:
I'd argue that was more true of the G. W. Bush USA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If they want to go round shooting each other, that's their business.0 -
I’m rereading what I wrote and wondering how on earth you extracted that from my words. Since I don’t believe any such thing, and have avoided visiting China to date in part because I so strongly disapprove of that regime, I can only deduce that it comes from within the reader than from the written words.Alanbrooke said:
yes the CCP should not be scrutinisedAlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.
0 -
Method: NHS England #covid deaths data, backdating 23 days from deaths (5 days infection => symptoms + 18 days symptoms => death), and assuming a serial interval of 5 days.Chris said:
The caption says it was calculated from "NHS England hospital deaths data." How in f*ck's name do they think they could calculate all that intricate up-and-down of Rt before 8 March, when the first death was reported on 7 March and the second on 8 March?RobD said:.
I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
Pure unadulterated bullshit.
Rock solid methodology definitely not designed to produce the outcome he wanted.0 -
Is that disclosure necessarily a good thing? It may be that they have to/what to recommend unpopular things, I don't know if this will help at a subconscious leave in making purely rational recommendations.AlastairMeeks said:The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.
0 -
or you have no sense of proportionAlastairMeeks said:
I’m rereading what I wrote and wondering how on earth you extracted that from my words. Since I don’t believe any such thing, and have avoided visiting China to date in part because I so strongly disapprove of that regime, I can only deduce that it comes from within the reader than from the written words.Alanbrooke said:
yes the CCP should not be scrutinisedAlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.
0 -
I was thinking more foreign policy, especially Iraq. I actually think Trump's done alright on that front. What limited interventions he has made in the Middle East have not been too bad. Perhaps more luck than judgement, mind.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is certainly a case that Trump is the foreseeable even if unintended consequence of changes to the GOP under GW Bush, especially extreme partisanship and the idea the facts do not matter -- remember truthiness? But let us not pretend American politics was clean before then: Reagan's Iran-Contra affair; Watergate under Nixon, of course; Vietnam; Iran; Central America.tlg86 said:
I'd argue that was more true of the G. W. Bush USA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If they want to go round shooting each other, that's their business.0 -
I think that technically he could be VP.Malmesbury said:
I thought that actual legal opinion was that a VP has to be eligible to be president, in order to be elected to the position of VP?Alistair said:The Obama into 100/1 move was due to this batshit insane article
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1257050566817185792
The 12th Amendment says:
"No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States."
The 22nd Amendment says:
"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once."
The 25th Amendment says:
"In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President."
Note the difference in wording. The 22nd Amendment prevents Obama from being ELECTED to the office of President for a third time. But it doesn't make him "constitutionally ineligible to the office" in the words of the 12th Amendment (noting they could have said "constitutionally ineligible for election to the office" but didn't). And the 25th Amendment confirms there is no election for President (either popular or in the Senate) if the President is removed, dies or resigns - the VP just takes office.
So, in theory, he could be Clinton's (or anyone else's) VP and serve to the end of the term if Clinton died or resigned.
Won't happen though.0 -
I just find it amazing the difference hand washing made to the R number.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.0 -
Surface to hand to mouth is definitely a massive issue that we've frankly got decadent about in recent years, and that kind of boring low glamour hygiene is easy to fix.NerysHughes said:
According to this graph the handwashing thing made a massive difference. This might give a clue into how this virus is spread. Hardly anyone wore a mask in that period, so touching hands must be a bigger spreader of it than via oral ways.Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily.NerysHughes said:
This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much differenceMalmesbury said:
Its helped drive the R below 1 and made it stay at below 1, that is critical. If handwash advice left it only at 1 then numbers would plateau but not fall.
Plus if people eased off on the handwashing advice R could have started to rise again.
Realistically we won't know for a while if ever.
However, it looks like that low hanging fruit wasn't quite enough. There's a Mickawber principle here, R=0.99 is eventually contentment, R = 1.01 is misery, albeit delayed.
What the R graph may show is that there's quite a lot of unlocking that can be safely done. Not all of it (fast food restaurants without cutlery look pretty unattractive, and some organisations began taking lockdown into their own hands in early March) but more than we might fear.
Which is not to say we should rush into anything yet. Certainly not on the basis of 1 internet graph.
0 -
I thought he was an acknowledged expert on Ethelred the Unready.OldKingCole said:
I didn't realise IDS read anything.Sandpit said:
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1257287304508563464FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/Numberopinion/status/1257246885229867008?s=20CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=20
Not sure where I heard that but I heard it somewhere. Certainly it was the impression I was under.0 -
Not with the President's support though. If Trump looks as though he might lose in November things will get very, very ugly indeed.Floater said:
That sort of crap happened pre TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
I’m in two minds. For decision makers I think there’s very very rarely an excuse for any level of anonymity, such as some people floated during difficult Brexit votes on the basis MPs might find it easier to come to a resolution, to which I’d say they need to toughen up. Advisory bodies I can see more justification for doing so particularly when they may need to consider recommending very unpopular things and not be swayed by a mass of uninformed opinion. However, SAGE has been so prominent in how much the political decision makers claim to be guided by their scientific advisors, that I think on balance it is reasonable to know who sits on it.BigRich said:
Is that disclosure necessarily a good thing? It may be that they have to/what to recommend unpopular things, I don't know if this will help at a subconscious leave in making purely rational recommendations.AlastairMeeks said:The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.
0 -
Gordon Brown is looking very old and as if he is auditioning for one of those stroke posters, not helped by tilting his head to one side.Pro_Rata said:
Lisa Nandy's background making her look like she's out of a Margaret Atwood novel?OldKingCole said:
I didn't realise IDS read anything.Sandpit said:
https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1257287304508563464FrancisUrquhart said:
https://twitter.com/Numberopinion/status/1257246885229867008?s=20CarlottaVance said:Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=200 -
I wonder when we get data on the number of death threats to members of SAGE - we can plot a graph, with x days of averaging on the trend line.BigRich said:
Is that disclosure necessarily a good thing? It may be that they have to/what to recommend unpopular things, I don't know if this will help at a subconscious leave in making purely rational recommendations.AlastairMeeks said:The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.
1
