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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » COVID-19: It’s Not Your Fault

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=20

    Fahrenheit 451 fast approaching.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Thanks to Max, Blair, Egg, Topping, Richard and others for their comments on the earlier thread.

    My first fee alone is well in excess of the £1,000 so I will simply write to HMRC and ask them about going the SA system.

    Thanks again everyone.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Jeremy Corbyn's conspiracy theorist brother, 73, leads his third anti-lockdown protest after claiming Covid is being used by the 'new world order' to inject Britons with MICROCHIPS

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8284129/Jeremy-Corbyns-brother-73-leads-anti-lockdown-protest-Covid-19-conspiracy-theory.html

    David Icke has been on the phone complaining that this guy is making him look too sane for his USP to enable him to flog his books.

    That's what a second rate Public School education does for you - same for Piers! :smiley:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Stocky said:

    Peak deaths across all settings (inc. care homes) was 1,172 on April 20th.

    Is that just England? Can you provide a source or link for this?
    UK as a whole:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

    Deaths on 19/4 = 19,051
    Deaths on 20/4 = 20,223

    20,223 - 19,051 = 1,172.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020

    Owen Jones is trending.....and not in a good way.....

    https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1257285910883958785?s=20

    Not really shocking, given this kind of crap....

    Oxford University students have voted against “ableist, classist and misogynistic” reading lists, claiming that they should not be forced to engage with any “hateful material”. Students should not be required to attend any lectures, tutorials or seminars, nor should they have to sit exams, which involve “hate speech” against a particular group, according to a new policy that the university’s student union has adopted.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/03/oxford-university-students-vote-block-ableist-classist-misogynistic/

    No I will no educate myself about any of history, because they were all racist, xenophobic, homophobic, trans-phobic, sexist, classist bigots.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,430

    Why is the UK the biggest donor to finding a vaccine? Good that we are doing so, but why aren't others with bigger economies donating more too?

    Where are you getting the figures from?
    Sky News were broadcasting a conference where that was quoted.
    You'll forgive me if I take them a pinch of salt then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Costa had to close a Manchester drive-thru on the first day of opening after queues got 'too big'

    The coffee brand intended for the drive-thrus to be open to key workers

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/costa-close-manchester-drive-thru-18193968
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Alistair said:

    The Obama into 100/1 move was due to this batshit insane article

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1257050566817185792

    What makes me laugh more isn't the idea of Hilldog being parachuted in, its the DNC holding a virtual convention where delegate after delegate avows and affirms that Biden is the Best Person to be the candidate. Against any other GOP candidate Biden would not be anywhere near the ticket for all the obvious reasons. Are the DNC still delusional enough to think that because Trump is So Hated they can run a geriatric dodgepot who falls asleep on TV sets whilst they interview him about his sexual abuse of power allegations?
    https://twitter.com/TitaniaMcGrath/status/1255590145337810946
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Why is the UK the biggest donor to finding a vaccine? Good that we are doing so, but why aren't others with bigger economies donating more too?

    Where are you getting the figures from?
    Sky News were broadcasting a conference where that was quoted.
    You'll forgive me if I take them a pinch of salt then.
    It was an EU Conference where it was quoted.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020
    The thing is if there was some suggestion that Gove was antisemitic and regularly promoted the sort of opinions espoused in the Bell Curve, all these people might have a point. The fact is he has a long record of the absolute opposite...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    Handwashing advice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited May 2020
    How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    .

    FPT

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1257245827002707968?s=20

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1257245832522407936?s=20

    No Palpatine? Sad.
    Er, he's on 20% in the first tweet!
    What? That genial senator from Naboo is the Emperor? :o
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited May 2020

    How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    Well haven't you been accused of Islamophobia before by some geniuses on the twitter?

    Personally, I always had you down as a secret BNP member. Its the thinking Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie that gives it away.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 2020
    One further point about the Wuhan lab conspiracy is that epidemiology suggests the epidemic didn't necessarily originate in Hubei province. The only connection to the lab is the circumstantial evidence that the lab is very close to the meat market where the Chinese government originally said the outbreak originated. We now know for sure that the epidemic started a month or so earlier than the Wuhan market outbreak, making the lab connection moot.

    There is some evidence that the epidemic may have started further south in China. See https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/could-covid-19-be-manmade-what-we-know-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    Well haven't you been accused of Islamophobia before?
    And being a Zionist.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    Not necessarily.

    Its helped drive the R below 1 and made it stay at below 1, that is critical. If handwash advice left it only at 1 then numbers would plateau but not fall.

    Plus if people eased off on the handwashing advice R could have started to rise again.

    Realistically we won't know for a while if ever.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    Have you got any black shorts?

    Quite a few years ago, I was walking through the centre of Oxford after doing some horse riding. I was getting some looks. I realised that black riding jeans, with black riding boots and a black shirt was probably being misunderstood...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Just been for my walk and met a (once upon a time) drinking friend ...... well, stood 2-3 m away from and conducted a quite load conversation. Told me he'd just seen another frequenter of of our town's pubs who has actually had, and recovered from, coronavirus, although he had been, apparently, very ill. Chap's a regular attender at hospital.... lot's of quite nasty things wrong with him and actually attending outpatients was blamed for him catching the virus.
    A second case was then quoted, a work colleague of my friend, who's acquired the virus the same way.

    I'm due to have a cancer check-up shortly..........
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    Have you got any black shorts?

    Quite a few years ago, I was walking through the centre of Oxford after doing some horse riding. I was getting some looks. I realised that black riding jeans, with black riding boots and a black shirt was probably being misunderstood...
    I’ve got black shorts and shirts.

    My default colour for suits is brown, replete with brown shirts.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    Not necessarily.

    Its helped drive the R below 1 and made it stay at below 1, that is critical. If handwash advice left it only at 1 then numbers would plateau but not fall.

    Plus if people eased off on the handwashing advice R could have started to rise again.

    Realistically we won't know for a while if ever.
    According to this graph the handwashing thing made a massive difference. This might give a clue into how this virus is spread. Hardly anyone wore a mask in that period, so touching hands must be a bigger spreader of it than via oral ways.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    King Cole, best of luck.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    .

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    I went to a talk by David Shayler at The Oxford Union. To be honest, I thought it was excellent stand-up comedy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.

    How do we think who will respond?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    How do you think will respond I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    Have you got any black shorts?

    Quite a few years ago, I was walking through the centre of Oxford after doing some horse riding. I was getting some looks. I realised that black riding jeans, with black riding boots and a black shirt was probably being misunderstood...
    I’ve got black shorts and shirts.

    My default colour for suits is brown, replete with brown shirts.
    Fascist Authors - check
    Black Shorts - check

    You are Roderick Spode and I claim my 5 Reichmarks in Mefo bills
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    RobD said:

    .

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.
    Calculating R from the publicly available data does not seem to be a perfectly precise process. There are no error bars on this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    Handwashing advice.
    Dunno about anyone else, but I've never had a cold since someone told me three years ago to scrub my hands and under my fingernails a few times a day.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited May 2020

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    Handwashing advice.
    Wasn't there some graph doing the rounds even before lockdown showing people admitted to hospital with gastroenteritis had fallen off a cliff because people were actually washing their hands?

    Basically, if everyone practised more rigorous handwashing - I'm sure there's a high proportion of people out there even know who hardly wash their hands - we wouldn't be in this level of shit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.

    Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happen

    *It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.

    Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happen

    *It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.
    Lots of the US problems come down to education...its piss poor.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    More than 10 times as many people in Germany have likely been infected with the coronavirus than the number of confirmed cases, researchers from the University of Bonn have concluded from a field trial in one of the worst hit towns.

    That's quite some iceberg!
    My guess is that it is the same here. I think its been here since November/December
    I very, very much doubt it. But I think that there are simply many more asymptomatic carriers.
    Says PB's resident eminent virologist.
    I make no pretensions to be a virologist but Occam's Razor makes it very, very unlikely to me.

    Given how contagious this disease is and how quickly it spreads and how quickly it can lead to a spike in deaths and hospital admissions then if this was here back in November then even if we didn't realise that is why people were sick why didn't we a spike in hospital admissions? Why didn't we see a spike in deaths? Why did early testing have over 95% test negative for so long? Why did we only see a spike in deaths a couple of weeks ago when the outbreak was known to happen?

    The idea that it was here in November but people weren't dying from it until March just seems illogical. Why were death rates unmoved from average (or ever down from average) over the whole winter until March?

    I'm no virologist and don't claim to be but I can read statistics and that just makes zero sense.
    Indeed, the strongest evidence that the pandemic started in China in November is precisely because the Influenza-Like Illness warning system started parting from the norm in about the 2nd week of November, and went haywire thereafter. Absent similar evidence in the UK, I'd doubt it arrived much sooner than we knew.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    That's the Conference I was talking about earlier where it was said that the UK has given more than any other nation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
    Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Lisa Nandy's background making her look like she's out of a Margaret Atwood novel?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
    No. You must be eligible to become President to become President.

    If President and VP died simultaneously and Obama was Speaker of the House then my understanding is that the President pro tempore of the Senate as 3rd in the line of succession would become President.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    FF43 said:

    One further point about the Wuhan lab conspiracy is that epidemiology suggests the epidemic didn't necessarily originate in Hubei province. The only connection to the lab is the circumstantial evidence that the lab is very close to the meat market where the Chinese government originally said the outbreak originated. We now know for sure that the epidemic started a month or so earlier than the Wuhan market outbreak, making the lab connection moot.

    There is some evidence that the epidemic may have started further south in China. See https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/could-covid-19-be-manmade-what-we-know-about-origins-trump-chinese-lab-coronavirus

    The important news of course is that the US administration is doubling down on the Wuhan lab conspiracy apparently without any basis.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.

    Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happen

    *It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.
    Lots of the US problems come down to education...its piss poor.
    Maybe there is something there, but there is more to it than just that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708

    Mr. Stereotomy, that's bloody insane.

    Loons + guns + militia mentality(*) = sh&t will happen

    *It's not just the batshit amount of guns in America. Its the batshit culture around them - the pseudo-militia thing. After all, Israel has tons of people wandering around in public with actual military weapons... while bad stuff happens it seems to be far rarer.
    People genuinely seem to believe that having guns protects them from the government, but it doesn't stop the USA incarcerating so many of its citizens.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    RobD said:

    .

    FPT

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1257245827002707968?s=20

    twitter.com/YouGov/status/1257245832522407936?s=20

    No Palpatine? Sad.
    Er, he's on 20% in the first tweet!
    What? That genial senator from Naboo is the Emperor? :o
    Hey, Rob. May the Fourth be with you :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Draft guidance for getting people back to work during the coronavirus pandemic could compromise worker safety, the head of the TUC has warned.

    Frances O'Grady, who leads the group representing UK unions, said it cannot back the advice in its "current form".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52533375

    The clue is in the name, draft...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.

    How do you think who will respond?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    In addition to the claim Germany has 10x as many cases as officially confirmed..The study also found that more than one in five people infected showed no symptoms.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    RobD said:
    That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675

    How do you think will respond when I tell them I’ve got some leaflets/booklets by Nick Griffin and John Tyndall and the rest of the BNP mob?

    I think I’ve got some EDL pamphlets as well.

    How do you think who will respond?
    I’ll be denounced as an Islamophobe and the person that complained to Mike years ago that I was an Islamphobe because I said that I really wouldn’t want devout Muslims as neighbours.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:
    That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.
    That is what they called themselves "Independent Sage".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Not really sure that I see the point in this article. There are 2 issues: was this China's fault and have we dealt with this as well as we could have done? Even if the answer to the first is yes governments are accountable for the second.

    So far as China is concerned it is extremely unlikely that there is anything deliberate about this at all. Incompetence may well have played a part but exogenous viruses have caused enough problems for them to be a legitimate matter for study. At the end of the day I am not sure negligence or incompetence would be a particular game changer here.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    More than 10 times as many people in Germany have likely been infected with the coronavirus than the number of confirmed cases, researchers from the University of Bonn have concluded from a field trial in one of the worst hit towns.

    That's quite some iceberg!
    It's not really, it's in line with the data from New York. They also seem to have roughly 10 undetected cases for every detected case. My hunch is that the UK will prove to be about the same level.

    The idea that there is a vast asymptomatic iceberg which means we can go back to normal without a huge number of deaths is increasingly implausible. Even for Germany these current figures give an IFR around 0.4%. Let the virus run through the population and a hell of a lot of Germans would die.

    You would need the undetected cases to be something like 100 x the current known cases for that idea to have any merit. i.e. To get to a bad seasonal flu type of scenario.

    There are simply far to many people who could still catch the virus and die to do anything other than maintain quite strict measures.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:
    That seems to misunderstand what they intended. Even being referred to as an alternative SAGE means it achieved what it wanted i presume.
    That is what they called themselves "Independent Sage".
    So easy to confuse them with:

    https://www.sage.com/en-gb/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    That sort of crap happened pre Trump
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
    Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.
    Surely that cannot count as being elected president?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    In addition to the claim Germany has 10x as many cases as officially confirmed..The study also found that more than one in five people infected showed no symptoms.

    One-in-five to one-in-three seem to be where most estimates for asymptotic cases are heading. That suggests no "iceberg", but also that fatality rates are 0.5-0.8%.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    Just been for my walk and met a (once upon a time) drinking friend ...... well, stood 2-3 m away from and conducted a quite load conversation. Told me he'd just seen another frequenter of of our town's pubs who has actually had, and recovered from, coronavirus, although he had been, apparently, very ill. Chap's a regular attender at hospital.... lot's of quite nasty things wrong with him and actually attending outpatients was blamed for him catching the virus.
    A second case was then quoted, a work colleague of my friend, who's acquired the virus the same way.

    I'm due to have a cancer check-up shortly..........

    Best wishes OKC
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    I'd argue that was more true of the G. W. Bush USA.

    If they want to go round shooting each other, that's their business.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    isam said:
    I don't know how verifiable theses numbers are, but it looks like:

    Good advice on hand washing, combined with i'f you wouldn't mind please don't go down the pub' was all that was needed to bring this horrible deseise to an R of less than 1. (probably also TV images of hospitals in Italy as well)

    Ripping away all our freedoms with the lock-down vertaualy no change.

    I am going to sound like a broken record, sorry about that, but when this is all over and more complete data comes out I don't want people saying nobody advocated against a lock-down.

    P.S. the more resent drop of in R, will be at leset in part because start of the 'herd immunity' effect and possible also the wormier weather and more sun-lite having a small influence.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    RobD said:

    .

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.
    The caption says it was calculated from "NHS England hospital deaths data." How in f*ck's name do they think they could calculate all that intricate up-and-down of Rt before 8 March, when the first death was reported on 7 March and the second on 8 March?

    Pure unadulterated bullshit.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    That sort of crap happened pre Trump
    The attitudes leading to this were never encouraged by the POTUS before Trump.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD said:
    Vlad hates everything to do with the EU, so does Trump, so does Farage. I wonder what the connection is? If the EU could find an absolute cure for cancer then Trump and his equivalent nutters on this side of the pond would convince themselves not to trust it and Russian bots would try and discredit it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
    Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.
    Surely that cannot count as being elected president?
    Becoming President doesn't require election, it does require eligibility.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Just been for my walk and met a (once upon a time) drinking friend ...... well, stood 2-3 m away from and conducted a quite load conversation. Told me he'd just seen another frequenter of of our town's pubs who has actually had, and recovered from, coronavirus, although he had been, apparently, very ill. Chap's a regular attender at hospital.... lot's of quite nasty things wrong with him and actually attending outpatients was blamed for him catching the virus.
    A second case was then quoted, a work colleague of my friend, who's acquired the virus the same way.

    I'm due to have a cancer check-up shortly..........

    In one post the very reason why for non COVID issues hospitals are quiet summed up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    RobD said:
    Vlad hates everything to do with the EU, so does Trump, so does Farage. I wonder what the connection is? If the EU could find an absolute cure for cancer then Trump and his equivalent nutters on this side of the pond would convince themselves not to trust it and Russian bots would try and discredit it.
    You may be surprised but I agree with you
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    That sort of crap happened pre Trump
    The attitudes leading to this were never encouraged by the POTUS before Trump.
    I'm no fan of Trump but plenty of bat shit crazy behaviour in the USA and elsewhere to be fair before Tump.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    BigRich said:

    isam said:
    I don't know how verifiable theses numbers are, but it looks like:

    Good advice on hand washing, combined with i'f you wouldn't mind please don't go down the pub' was all that was needed to bring this horrible deseise to an R of less than 1. (probably also TV images of hospitals in Italy as well)

    Ripping away all our freedoms with the lock-down vertaualy no change.

    I am going to sound like a broken record, sorry about that, but when this is all over and more complete data comes out I don't want people saying nobody advocated against a lock-down.

    P.S. the more resent drop of in R, will be at leset in part because start of the 'herd immunity' effect and possible also the wormier weather and more sun-lite having a small influence.
    Keep running with the pseudoscience. Do you know, according to the current POTUS, (a man who claims to have an unverified IQ of over 200), you might be able to inject yourself with disinfectant? (Actually, please don't do this, it really is a bad idea, and will probably kill you)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.

    The probability of it being manmade are so infinitesimally small as to be effectively zero. The probability of it being man-isolated from the natural reservoir of wild types is, however, well within the bounds of possibility.

    The probability of it being deliberately released are, IMO, close to zero also. But, if the virus had been isolated and propogated in the lab without staff realizing that it was capable of the zoonotic leap (and hence were not necessarily treating it as a human pathogen), given its high R0 absent containment efforts, I think the probability of accidental laboratory acquired infection and subsequent human to human transmission outside of the lab would be quite high.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    BigRich said:

    isam said:
    I don't know how verifiable theses numbers are, but it looks like:

    Good advice on hand washing, combined with i'f you wouldn't mind please don't go down the pub' was all that was needed to bring this horrible deseise to an R of less than 1. (probably also TV images of hospitals in Italy as well)

    Ripping away all our freedoms with the lock-down vertaualy no change.

    I am going to sound like a broken record, sorry about that, but when this is all over and more complete data comes out I don't want people saying nobody advocated against a lock-down.

    P.S. the more resent drop of in R, will be at leset in part because start of the 'herd immunity' effect and possible also the wormier weather and more sun-lite having a small influence.
    Well the graph would have to be very wrong for your analysis to be incorrect.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    That sort of crap happened pre Trump
    The attitudes leading to this were never encouraged by the POTUS before Trump.
    I'm no fan of Trump but plenty of bat shit crazy behaviour in the USA and elsewhere to be fair before Tump.
    Prior Presidents denounced the crazies not encouraged them though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
    Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.
    Surely that cannot count as being elected president?
    Becoming President doesn't require election, it does require eligibility.
    But the 22nd only prohibits being elected president.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    isam said:
    I could swear that 4-5 weeks ago we were being told that had had no effect.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.

    yes the CCP should not be scrutinised
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Is a former two terms president ineligible to be elected to Congress?

    No. Only VP needs to be eligible to become President (I think).
    So Obama can still become president again then.
    Nope. Even if he got into the order of succession by reason of being elected to Congress, he would be eliminated from the said order of succession by his being elected president twice.
    Surely that cannot count as being elected president?
    ?

    The question was about Congress.

    - Yes, Obama could get elected to Congress.
    - Yes, the speaker of the House of Representatives is in the line of succession
    - Yes, in theory the House could elect Congressman Obama as the Speaker of the House
    - No, he wouldn't be eligible to become president, so the succession list would go round him, as it were.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.

    If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:
    "Method: NHS England #covid deaths data, backdating 23 days from deaths (5 days infection => symptoms + 18 days symptoms => death), and assuming a serial interval of 5 days."

    Tweak those parameters even a tiny bit and you get Rt going under 1 coinciding with Lockdown instead of hand washing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    tlg86 said:

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    I'd argue that was more true of the G. W. Bush USA.

    If they want to go round shooting each other, that's their business.
    There is certainly a case that Trump is the foreseeable even if unintended consequence of changes to the GOP under GW Bush, especially extreme partisanship and the idea the facts do not matter -- remember truthiness? But let us not pretend American politics was clean before then: Reagan's Iran-Contra affair; Watergate under Nixon, of course; Vietnam; Iran; Central America.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.

    yes the CCP should not be scrutinised
    I’m rereading what I wrote and wondering how on earth you extracted that from my words. Since I don’t believe any such thing, and have avoided visiting China to date in part because I so strongly disapprove of that regime, I can only deduce that it comes from within the reader than from the written words.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Chris said:

    RobD said:

    .

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    I'd want to know the methodology behind this chart before coming to that conclusion.
    The caption says it was calculated from "NHS England hospital deaths data." How in f*ck's name do they think they could calculate all that intricate up-and-down of Rt before 8 March, when the first death was reported on 7 March and the second on 8 March?

    Pure unadulterated bullshit.
    Method: NHS England #covid deaths data, backdating 23 days from deaths (5 days infection => symptoms + 18 days symptoms => death), and assuming a serial interval of 5 days.

    Rock solid methodology definitely not designed to produce the outcome he wanted.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.

    Is that disclosure necessarily a good thing? It may be that they have to/what to recommend unpopular things, I don't know if this will help at a subconscious leave in making purely rational recommendations.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    On topic, it’s possible that Covid-19 is manmade. It’s even possible that it was deliberately released. The evidence for such serious claims, however, is thin. Western governments have sexed up evidence for political purposes before and the time when they can be trusted to be essentially honest is long past, if it ever existed.

    yes the CCP should not be scrutinised
    I’m rereading what I wrote and wondering how on earth you extracted that from my words. Since I don’t believe any such thing, and have avoided visiting China to date in part because I so strongly disapprove of that regime, I can only deduce that it comes from within the reader than from the written words.
    or you have no sense of proportion
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    I'd argue that was more true of the G. W. Bush USA.

    If they want to go round shooting each other, that's their business.
    There is certainly a case that Trump is the foreseeable even if unintended consequence of changes to the GOP under GW Bush, especially extreme partisanship and the idea the facts do not matter -- remember truthiness? But let us not pretend American politics was clean before then: Reagan's Iran-Contra affair; Watergate under Nixon, of course; Vietnam; Iran; Central America.
    I was thinking more foreign policy, especially Iraq. I actually think Trump's done alright on that front. What limited interventions he has made in the Middle East have not been too bad. Perhaps more luck than judgement, mind.
  • Alistair said:

    The Obama into 100/1 move was due to this batshit insane article

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1257050566817185792

    I thought that actual legal opinion was that a VP has to be eligible to be president, in order to be elected to the position of VP?
    I think that technically he could be VP.

    The 12th Amendment says:

    "No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States."

    The 22nd Amendment says:

    "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once."

    The 25th Amendment says:

    "In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President."

    Note the difference in wording. The 22nd Amendment prevents Obama from being ELECTED to the office of President for a third time. But it doesn't make him "constitutionally ineligible to the office" in the words of the 12th Amendment (noting they could have said "constitutionally ineligible for election to the office" but didn't). And the 25th Amendment confirms there is no election for President (either popular or in the Senate) if the President is removed, dies or resigns - the VP just takes office.

    So, in theory, he could be Clinton's (or anyone else's) VP and serve to the end of the term if Clinton died or resigned.

    Won't happen though.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    Assuming that the graph is accurate in portraying those impacts, lockdown could still have saved countless lives.

    If the infection period is deemed to last about a week, then if R had stayed at 0.9 the number of new cases at the end of 8 weeks would still be about 43% of the level at the start. By contrast if R were consistently 0.7 it means that new cases would be reduced to about 6% of the original level. R was 0.9 when lockdown started and has declined to about 0.7 since then, although the decline has been gradual not immediate.

    I just find it amazing the difference hand washing made to the R number.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240

    isam said:
    6th-8th March looks very significant - from 3 to pretty much 1.

    What happened there?
    This graph seems to show that lockdown has not made much difference
    Not necessarily.

    Its helped drive the R below 1 and made it stay at below 1, that is critical. If handwash advice left it only at 1 then numbers would plateau but not fall.

    Plus if people eased off on the handwashing advice R could have started to rise again.

    Realistically we won't know for a while if ever.
    According to this graph the handwashing thing made a massive difference. This might give a clue into how this virus is spread. Hardly anyone wore a mask in that period, so touching hands must be a bigger spreader of it than via oral ways.
    Surface to hand to mouth is definitely a massive issue that we've frankly got decadent about in recent years, and that kind of boring low glamour hygiene is easy to fix.

    However, it looks like that low hanging fruit wasn't quite enough. There's a Mickawber principle here, R=0.99 is eventually contentment, R = 1.01 is misery, albeit delayed.

    What the R graph may show is that there's quite a lot of unlocking that can be safely done. Not all of it (fast food restaurants without cutlery look pretty unattractive, and some organisations began taking lockdown into their own hands in early March) but more than we might fear.

    Which is not to say we should rush into anything yet. Certainly not on the basis of 1 internet graph.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    I thought he was an acknowledged expert on Ethelred the Unready.

    Not sure where I heard that but I heard it somewhere. Certainly it was the impression I was under.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Floater said:

    Aghast.

    The US under Trump has become a rogue state
    That sort of crap happened pre Trump
    Not with the President's support though. If Trump looks as though he might lose in November things will get very, very ugly indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    BigRich said:

    The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.

    Is that disclosure necessarily a good thing? It may be that they have to/what to recommend unpopular things, I don't know if this will help at a subconscious leave in making purely rational recommendations.
    I’m in two minds. For decision makers I think there’s very very rarely an excuse for any level of anonymity, such as some people floated during difficult Brexit votes on the basis MPs might find it easier to come to a resolution, to which I’d say they need to toughen up. Advisory bodies I can see more justification for doing so particularly when they may need to consider recommending very unpopular things and not be swayed by a mass of uninformed opinion. However, SAGE has been so prominent in how much the political decision makers claim to be guided by their scientific advisors, that I think on balance it is reasonable to know who sits on it.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Pro_Rata said:

    Lisa Nandy's background making her look like she's out of a Margaret Atwood novel?
    Gordon Brown is looking very old and as if he is auditioning for one of those stroke posters, not helped by tilting his head to one side.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    BigRich said:

    The provisional wing of SAGE has performed one valuable service if it prompted the disclosure of the identity of (most of) the original SAGE’s committee members.

    Is that disclosure necessarily a good thing? It may be that they have to/what to recommend unpopular things, I don't know if this will help at a subconscious leave in making purely rational recommendations.
    I wonder when we get data on the number of death threats to members of SAGE - we can plot a graph, with x days of averaging on the trend line.
This discussion has been closed.