politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can You Guess Which Country It is Yet?

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.

No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK

They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it

Mortimer said:

TGOHF666 said:

Lockdown is toast after that speech.

An interesting view. Not obviously shared by anyone else...

It's the genius of Boris though. Everyone can take from his speeches what they want to hear.

Cyclefree said:

JohnLilburne said:

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Cyclefree said:

rkrkrk said:

New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus.
I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian.
But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.

And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?

Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.

In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.

And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?

You don't need to. You just quarantine them until they get on another plane.

Is that what happens? Do they stay in hotels for their prescribed rest periods? Hotels staffed by New Zealanders presumably who do not go back to their homes or into the wider community at all?

In China they are put in hotels where they are not allowed to leave their room, so minimal contacts with hotel staff.

Mr. Contrarian, Canute was aware he couldn't control the tide.

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.

No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK

They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it

The German system is successful because it's is essentially all privatised and the government doesn't get involved with running it except providing subsidised access to low and no income people.

contrarian said:

After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.

Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.

Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).

Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.

I thought polling showed there's still widespread support for lockdown?

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.

No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK

They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it

I don't disagree on that and Germany has public health insurance not taxpayer funded single payer health like the NHS

Floater said:

RochdalePioneers said:

A summary of the PM's message to the country - "stop fucking whining"

Cuomo said similar things in the States over weekend

Cuomo has presided over even more of a disaster than Boris.

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.

Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.

I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?

Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.

The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.

NerysHughes said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.

No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK

They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it

On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?

I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.

In other news, Rupe's dagger to the heart of the British Libtard Broacasting Corporation is poised. Noteworthy how many actual BBC people he's poached.

https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1254690925495943170?s=20

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-

1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed?
2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine?
3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living?
4. What happens if no vaccine is found?

At a guess

1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this.
2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative)
3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc
4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.

MattW said:

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.

I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?

Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.

The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.

For one reason or another I am on a couple of area's community help groups which coordinate the response to vulnerable people with local food distribution groups and councillors.

On Saturday night, a message popped up: our neighbours are having people round. To which the answer by the councillor was "call 101".

Job done. Except. Is that really the country we are becoming? Shop your neighbour? Seemed pretty depressing, tbh.

LostPassword said:

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1254655177476444162?s=21


THE SNP is so rotten it may have to be replaced by a new independence party, its former deputy leader has said

If another Nationalist party challenges the SNP at Holyrood next year but fails to pass the threshold for MSPs all that will do is split the Nationalist vote and enable a Unionist majority

The SNP manage fine with other pro-Independence parties like the Greens and minor Socialist parties because the threshold for the list vote is relatively low, and these parties mostly don't stand in the constituency seats.

To be a threat a new party would have to split the vote in the FPTP constituency part of the election sufficiently for the SNP to lose many of those seats - which would mean the new party would have to be above the threshold for gaining the list seats.

The Greens are an established party though with multiple MSPs, a new minor Nationalist party is unlikely to do as well but could split the Nationalist vote enough to hand enough MSPs on the list to Unionists rather than the SNP or split the SNP vote on the constituency vote enough to lose the SNP seats thus enabling a narrow Unionist majority at Holyrood the first time since 2007.

When we’re allowed to see family members, I wonder if the definition of “family member” will stretch enough to include “girls from Tinder”.

isam said:

AnneJGP said:

FF43 said:

People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.

This chart was posted yesterday, comparing the areas of England. I've been wondering why the south west line, although low, still seems so static, and whether this is saying anything about a potential 'background level' of infection in spite of locking down. Can any PBer enlighten me, please? (I hope the paste from yesterday works.)

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254414877919191040?s=20

Good morning, everyone.

Isn’t Cheltenham in the SW? It is the least affected region?

Plymouth and Exeter have had a level of infection too - plenty of students in both. Elsewhere not so much - Torbay has had very few deaths recently for example. Which is encouraging, given how many over 70's it has there.

contrarian said:

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.

Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.

We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.

Gallowgate said:

When we’re allowed to see family members, I wonder if the definition of “family member” will stretch enough to include “girls from Tinder”.

You are already allowed gatherings of two people under the existing law. Though Chief Constable Copper may get you under "essential".

That is with social distancing though, so you would need your teledildonic equipment. With appropriate interfaces.

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

Luckily this condition will respond to treatment. Dr. DA prescribes a Cannondale SystemSix Hi-Mod and a Castelli Gabba.

Gesundheit.

IshmaelZ said:

Cyclefree said:

MarqueeMark said:

WTF, Daily Mail??? Notoriety? "the state of being famous or well known for some bad quality or deed."

"Captain Tom Moore (pictured) rose to notoriety having raised over £29million for the NHS by walking 100 lengths of his garden"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8259403/Queen-send-Captain-Tom-Moore-personalised-telegram-turns-100.html

Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.

A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.

Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.

I did not know that. The things you learn on here. Thank you.

I presume on twitter it is currently... Boris doesn't look like he was really ill, all just a PR stunt..i know Maureen, she had it and even after a month she can't talk for more than a few words at a time.

I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.

We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.

However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.

Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.

We are quite a way from this point.

Gallowgate said:

New Zealand has 5 international airports. We have that number in London alone. To compare us to New Zealand is ridiculous.

I wondered whether number of international airports was a common factor in regions that have done badly, but that doesn’t explain Ecuador

Nigel_Foremain said:

NerysHughes said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.

No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK

They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it

On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?

I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.

It's also better funded (in health spend per capita, quick Google by about 30%).

On most measures, the NHS does pretty well per unit spend. I don't have any particular ideological attachment to health service delivery models a long as universal and receipt not tied to ability to pay. There are also some really daft things in NHS organisation, but overall it performs fairly well.

Would be funny if a celebrity appeared via webcam deliberately looking like absolute shit for a wind up on This Morning/GMB or some such show

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.

Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.

Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).

Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.

The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.

I wonder what the result would be if the country was asked: “Do you want to be unemployed and on Universal Credit for 18 months to 2 years until a vaccine is found?”

Cyclefree said:

Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?

5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.

A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.

I thought Boris's speech was a reasonable summary from his viewpoint - obviously leaves the main questions unanswered and invents an almost non-existent "success" (people like that sort of thing from him). I think most people will give him a week or two back in the job to come to a view before they grumble seriously.

Politically I think he should indeed be downbeat over the next few years - get people's acceptance in advance that it's going to be tough, instead of spinning that it'd all pretty good as is his natural wont.

Amusingly grim header, by the way. I did think it was France from the start, but didn't know about the extent of their crisis.

GIN1138 said:

contrarian said:

After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.

Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.

Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).

Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.

I thought polling showed there's still widespread support for lockdown?

What you are seeing is the diversity in outcomes.

Imagine the following -

- Dave and Sarah. Dave is a long standing IT contractor, Sarah is a senior civil servant. Paid off their 4 bed house in London (bought before the prizes zoomed). His job is manic at the moment - works for one of the business that are doing massively more work during lockdown. Their days are spent WFH - evenings are relaxing in their garden and HouseParty with friends. Lockdown is a bore, but they have no money worries, tons of space. Even the pantry is full, thanks to some clever ordering before things got problematic.

- Mike runs a small business. It's shuttered, and he is trying to deal with no cash coming in. Rents a small flat. Spends his days wondering when he will have to actual fire his remaining employees. His elderly mother lives in his second bedroom - should be self isolating. But there is no space for that

It doesn't take much imagination to see who regards the lockdown as a minor thing and who regards it as the end of everything.

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume on twitter it is currently... Boris doesn't look like he was really ill, all just a PR stunt..i know Maureen, she had it and even after a month she can't talk for more than a few words at a time.

Except he did? You could tell he was extremely out of breath during that speech.

Just faking for the cameras.... ;-)

More seriously, Boris better but clearly still not 100%, lets not hope he is coming back too soon.

contrarian said:

noneoftheabove said:

contrarian said:

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.

Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.

We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.

Cyclists are no respecters of rules, judging by the number of red lights they run in Central London

Personally I think we should adopt a shoot on sight policy for red light runners, operating by police marksmen on rooftops.

That would indeed be contrarian!

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-

1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed?
2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine?
3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living?
4. What happens if no vaccine is found?

At a guess

1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this.
2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative)
3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc
4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.

Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?

5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.

A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.

As I posted earlier if a vaccine is a long way off we're going to have to treat this thing like my dad's generation did things like Polio - live with it. We can't just switch everything off and hunker down waiting for scientists to come up with a solution.

There are real hardships now - but there is government cash and the prospects for resumption of stuff currently off. If "we have to leave the hospitality sector shut and that means most pubs and restaurants will shut and their staff be dumped onto UC with few prospects of a new job" and "we have to keep your children at home with responsibility for them not ending up like Cleatus on you and you alone" then I can't see people accepting it.

We WILL have to resume. A new social distancing as best we can. Regardless of the virus.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

rkrkrk said:

New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus.
I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian.
But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.

New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is

I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.

We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.

With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.

It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country

Indeed – sheep outnumber people in NZ and, as for the pubs and restaurants, in most towns, even where they exist, you'd have zero inclination to visit them.

Cyclefree said:

JohnLilburne said:

Cyclefree said:

CarlottaVance said:

Cyclefree said:

rkrkrk said:

New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus.
I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian.
But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.

And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?

Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.

In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.

And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?

You don't need to. You just quarantine them until they get on another plane.

Is that what happens? Do they stay in hotels for their prescribed rest periods? Hotels staffed by New Zealanders presumably who do not go back to their homes or into the wider community at all?

For the Aer Lingus flights to China to collect PPE the aircrew stayed with the aircraft.

Also, if you have a relatively small number of entry points for the virus (as you do with an island compared to a land border) then it becomes easier to test and monitor those who have contact with the entry points.

Gallowgate said:

When we’re allowed to see family members, I wonder if the definition of “family member” will stretch enough to include “girls from Tinder”.

Don't go visiting Granny for 7 days after, and remember to use the wheelbarrow position.

SouthamObserver said:

Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.

No, this is what the virus does.

Selebian said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

NerysHughes said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.

No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK

They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it

On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?

I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.

It's also better funded (in health spend per capita, quick Google by about 30%).

On most measures, the NHS does pretty well per unit spend. I don't have any particular ideological attachment to health service delivery models a long as universal and receipt not tied to ability to pay. There are also some really daft things in NHS organisation, but overall it performs fairly well.

I think it will be very difficult indeed to have an ideology-free conversation about the future of our health and social services, or even ideology-light.

I have no idea how that will be managed.

I have not noticed that removing the management of the NHS to an Executive Agency more than 5 years ago has reduced the political content of the debates around it. It is still the Minister's fault if somebody runs out of Fairy Liquid in a tea room in a hospital in Carlisle.

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.

Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.

Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).

Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.

The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.

Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.

High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.

I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.

NickPalmer said:

Cyclefree said:

Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?

5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.

A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.

I thought Boris's speech was a reasonable summary from his viewpoint - obviously leaves the main questions unanswered and invents an almost non-existent "success" (people like that sort of thing from him). I think most people will give him a week or two back in the job to come to a view before they grumble seriously.

Politically I think he should indeed be downbeat over the next few years - get people's acceptance in advance that it's going to be tough, instead of spinning that it'd all pretty good as is his natural wont.

Amusingly grim header, by the way. I did think it was France from the start, but didn't know about the extent of their crisis.

Boris' USP is his cheery optimism in the face of adversity. Even naysayers like myself felt a little more jaunty after his speech. It was reassuring, and he held his audience very, very well, so much so that several of his more enthustic PB supporters might have needed private time to reflect on the event with a pack of Kleenex. (For their tears of joy, obviously).

SouthamObserver said:

Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.

Realistically it will probably be at least 3-6 months before he's back to how he was before he caught COVID-19

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.

No, this is what the virus does.

Then he should hand over to someone fit.

My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.

I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).

If it is not, then he should step down.

GIN1138 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.

Realistically it will probably be at least 3-6 months before he's back to how he was before he caught COVID-19

50% of SARS survivors were permanently affected.

I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.

Alistair said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

rkrkrk said:

New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus.
I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian.
But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.

New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is

I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.

We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.

With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.

It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country

It still has schools right? And offices?

It'll have bars soon. Get prepared for that first picture of an Auckland bar on twitter.

noneoftheabove said:

contrarian said:

noneoftheabove said:

contrarian said:

TOPPING said:

contrarian said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.

Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.

They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.

On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).

There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.

Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.

We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.

Cyclists are no respecters of rules, judging by the number of red lights they run in Central London

Personally I think we should adopt a shoot on sight policy for red light runners, operating by police marksmen on rooftops.

That would indeed be contrarian!

I like the permanent green circles with bicycle signs (meaning cyclists can always go when safe to do so) which I'm seeing more and more of in this city. It's often safest, and causes least inconvenience to other road users, for cyclists to cross when the traffic light is red.

I'm looking forward to some people's heads exploding when they are adopted in London.

TOPPING said:

Mortimer said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.

Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.

Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).

Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.

The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.

Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.

High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.

I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.

How was the Spanish flu eventually overcome? I have no idea and, in shocking news to PB, I am not an epidemiologist. But don't these things subside?

@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.

We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?

Smoking, AFAIK, isn't infectious.

The economy as we knew it before Covid 19 is ruined - lockdown or no lockdown. Life becomes much easier when you recognise this.

Mortimer said:

LostPassword said:

contrarian said:

After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.

Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.

Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).

Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.

The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.

Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.

High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.

I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.

The fact that people are returning to work in droves (if indeed they are) suggests that many do not believe your scaremongering and are prepared to accept the 'risks'

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.

No, this is what the virus does.

Then he should hand over to someone fit.

My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.

I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).

If it is not, then he should step down.

He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.

SouthamObserver said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.

No, this is what the virus does.

Then he should hand over to someone fit.

My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.

I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).

If it is not, then he should step down.

He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.

Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet