After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
I wonder what the result would be if the country was asked: “Do you want to be unemployed and on Universal Credit for 18 months to 2 years until a vaccine is found?”
Prof Farzan was very optimistic that there are a number of non-vaccine avenues from effective treatments to making antibodies to provide a short term boost to immunity.
Yeah, I watched his impressive presentation the other day. It dispelled the angst somewhat.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
Do you really think pictures in the press and videos on Twitter are likely to be typical?
Put it this way, does it get clicks if you show pictures of quiet parks, relatively empty streets and trains, and orderly queues respecting social distancing at the greengrocers? Yet that's by far the more typical situation.
I don't particularly blame the media for this, but people need to be more savvy about it. It isn't wrong to cover incidents where social distancing isn't being achieved, just like it is perfectly proper to cover a nasty crime or a scandal in a charity or whatever. But it doesn't make it typical.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Perhaps Boris will appear on the The Andrew Marr Show this Sunday. There are certainly a lot of questions for him that people would like answers to. Even if your role is as a frontman, you need to have answers to the main questions such as what is the strategy to end the lockdown, what criteria need to be met, when will restrictions start being lifted etc. I give Boris two days, or perhaps until the next PMQs on Wednesday to come up with the answers. There is no halfway house with being Prime Minister. If he wants to come back to the job, he has to do the job.
Might get asked a real question instead of the crap the journalists keep asking.
What are the infection rates for -
Hospital staff in COVID wards Hospital staff in non COVID wards Staff in shops Transport workers Care home residents Care home workers Other categories?
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Spoons do table service via the app, it's a such a great innovation. Europe has been so far ahead of the curve with table service though, loads of my European friends always bitch about high prices and no table service in London bars and pubs.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
I can only repeat what I said. The key decisions here are not about health or about the economy or about personal liberty. They are about politics. And the calculus of political risk is IMO clear. It steers to keeping the lockdown largely in place for a while yet. I explained why this is the case. The government agrees with me.
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
People do possess their own clippers. I'm seriously contemplating the #2 treatment for my flowing locks if this goes on much longer...
I've been contemplating shaving my hair off if hairdressers are still shut in June.
When my hair gets too long it really gives me the pip.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
Not if the hairdresser comes to you and you're not going out much.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
Do you really think pictures in the press and videos on Twitter are likely to be typical?
Put it this way, does it get clicks if you show pictures of quiet parks, relatively empty streets and trains, and orderly queues respecting social distancing at the greengrocers? Yet that's by far the more typical situation.
I don't particularly blame the media for this, but people need to be more savvy about it. It isn't wrong to cover incidents where social distancing isn't being achieved, just like it is perfectly proper to cover a nasty crime or a scandal in a charity or whatever. But it doesn't make it typical.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
Do you really think pictures in the press and videos on Twitter are likely to be typical?
Put it this way, does it get clicks if you show pictures of quiet parks, relatively empty streets and trains, and orderly queues respecting social distancing at the greengrocers? Yet that's by far the more typical situation.
I don't particularly blame the media for this, but people need to be more savvy about it. It isn't wrong to cover incidents where social distancing isn't being achieved, just like it is perfectly proper to cover a nasty crime or a scandal in a charity or whatever. But it doesn't make it typical.
The increasing traffic on the roads is backed up by the government data.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Wetherspoons have a table service app.
Next step - which some places were looking into, is self service. Taps in the middle of the table, automated, pay by card
The severity of lockdown needs to take into account how strictly it is being observed.
So if on a scale of 0-100 where 0 is business as usual and 100 is nobody is even allowed to open their doors for any reason whatsoever we have a lockdown severity of say 85. France is about 90.
But crucially the average citizen is at something like 75-80, because some people are not fully observing the rules. So the govt needs to make a judgement on whether to officially lower the rules from a level of 85. Right now i;d say the average number is dropping due to people getting fed up and the disobeyance levels creeping up. There may be a scientific case for it dropping, but the government feels it can't change the official rules otherwise it will drop too far, as more people will not obey.
This is bad news for the majority of people - who are sticking like good citizens at 85. But i think the govt for now is judging it can't officially relax, because relaxation is happening by "leakage" anyway. I think that's probably right.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Perhaps Boris will appear on the The Andrew Marr Show this Sunday. There are certainly a lot of questions for him that people would like answers to. Even if your role is as a frontman, you need to have answers to the main questions such as what is the strategy to end the lockdown, what criteria need to be met, when will restrictions start being lifted etc. I give Boris two days, or perhaps until the next PMQs on Wednesday to come up with the answers. There is no halfway house with being Prime Minister. If he wants to come back to the job, he has to do the job.
Boris will act as per the advice he gets and as he has a comfortable majority of 80 and most new Tory MPs owe their election to him regardless of what you think there is no prospect of him ceasing to be PM for years
You are a stalwart Conservative, would be councillor and have been loyal to the party for many years. It is something to be proud of.
But what is disappointing is that you seem to be putting party before country. Now, that may just be the way things are on both sides of the political divide. But it is disappointing and not a great way to run a country.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Wetherspoons have a table service app.
Next step - which some places were looking into, is self service. Taps in the middle of the table, automated, pay by card
Your choices are either “Fosters”, “Strongbow”, or “Chardonnay”.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
Might get asked a real question instead of the crap the journalists keep asking.
What are the infection rates for -
Hospital staff in COVID wards Hospital staff in non COVID wards Staff in shops Transport workers Care home residents Care home workers Other categories?
In how many Covid outbreaks in care homes was the index case (the individual who was the most likely source of the infection) a patient recently discharged from hospital ?
Forget government debt. The big issue is going to be all the personal debt rung through the online tills of the sites selling inflatable hot tubs, gym equipment, garden and diy shite and anything else bored people with credit cards impulse buy. I've been in the market for some 10kg Olympic weights. Even checked a site called Very. In the past, they have been chock full of stuff, albeit pricey, but I have used them with a discount code before. It looks like Genghis Khan and his horde of been through the site! It's all been snaffled, presumably on interest free credit that people won't pay in time and get loaded up with 39.9% apr in 12 months time.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Wetherspoons have a table service app.
Next step - which some places were looking into, is self service. Taps in the middle of the table, automated, pay by card
Your choices are either “Fosters”, “Strongbow”, or “Chardonnay”.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
People do possess their own clippers. I'm seriously contemplating the #2 treatment for my flowing locks if this goes on much longer...
My daughter and I have cut each other’s hair. And a good job we’ve made of it too, given that we’re complete amateurs. Mind you the many hours spent sitting in hairdressers watching professionals at work might have helped .......
We have also acquired a sewing machine and are going to teach ourselves sewing. At this rate we will end up dressed like the children in The Sound of Music marching round the Cumbrian countryside with my knitted cardigans for warmth.
The severity of lockdown needs to take into account how strictly it is being observed.
So if on a scale of 0-100 where 0 is business as usual and 100 is nobody is even allowed to open their doors for any reason whatsoever we have a lockdown severity of say 85. France is about 90.
But crucially the average citizen is at something like 75-80, because some people are not fully observing the rules. So the govt needs to make a judgement on whether to officially lower the rules from a level of 85. Right now i;d say the average number is dropping due to people getting fed up and the disobeyance levels creeping up. There may be a scientific case for it dropping, but the government feels it can't change the official rules otherwise it will drop too far, as more people will not obey.
This is bad news for the majority of people - who are sticking like good citizens at 85. But i think the govt for now is judging it can't officially relax, because relaxation is happening by "leakage" anyway. I think that's probably right.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
Where was it you did your medical training again?
I have the Scouts first aid badge which puts me in a strong position to be the next CMO of Scotland.
For once you've surprised me, I was sure you'd have been Hauptscharführer in the local BB.
People often copy what others do and there'll be more examples of breaking lockdown rules where the most people are. Unfortunately, that also increases infection risks...
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Wetherspoons have a table service app.
You youngsters love your apps! I'd settle for a bald bloke with a starched white apron and a supercilious demeanour (French-style) or a complaisant buxom blonde (German-style) just like the good old days.
Mr. Max, that's possible but it'll perhaps also be like QT and the BBC's Con leadership programme, with people who have strong political views trying to score points one way or the other.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
People do possess their own clippers. I'm seriously contemplating the #2 treatment for my flowing locks if this goes on much longer...
I've been contemplating shaving my hair off if hairdressers are still shut in June.
When my hair gets too long it really gives me the pip.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
Wrong.
UK official deaths over 20 000, Ecuador official deaths about 500.
So even if missing deaths added UK total deaths would still likely be higher than Ecuador's (though UK life expectancy is only 5 years above Ecuador's anyway).
Completely confirming that Covid is worse with older populations
Might get asked a real question instead of the crap the journalists keep asking.
What are the infection rates for -
Hospital staff in COVID wards Hospital staff in non COVID wards Staff in shops Transport workers Care home residents Care home workers Other categories?
In how many Covid outbreaks in care homes was the index case (the individual who was the most likely source of the infection) a patient recently discharged from hospital ?
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Wetherspoons have a table service app.
Next step - which some places were looking into, is self service. Taps in the middle of the table, automated, pay by card
Your choices are either “Fosters”, “Strongbow”, or “Chardonnay”.
In that case, I'll have a Covid 19 please.
Edit: a Corona was a sitter for me and I missed it!
Might get asked a real question instead of the crap the journalists keep asking.
What are the infection rates for -
Hospital staff in COVID wards Hospital staff in non COVID wards Staff in shops Transport workers Care home residents Care home workers Other categories?
In how many Covid outbreaks in care homes was the index case (the individual who was the most likely source of the infection) a patient recently discharged from hospital ?
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Perhaps Boris will appear on the The Andrew Marr Show this Sunday. There are certainly a lot of questions for him that people would like answers to. Even if your role is as a frontman, you need to have answers to the main questions such as what is the strategy to end the lockdown, what criteria need to be met, when will restrictions start being lifted etc. I give Boris two days, or perhaps until the next PMQs on Wednesday to come up with the answers. There is no halfway house with being Prime Minister. If he wants to come back to the job, he has to do the job.
Boris will act as per the advice he gets and as he has a comfortable majority of 80 and most new Tory MPs owe their election to him regardless of what you think there is no prospect of him ceasing to be PM for years
You are a stalwart Conservative, would be councillor and have been loyal to the party for many years. It is something to be proud of.
But what is disappointing is that you seem to be putting party before country. Now, that may just be the way things are on both sides of the political divide. But it is disappointing and not a great way to run a country.
Boris is in my view still the best PM for the country and half the art of doing the job effectively is delegation, as Brown and May showed overwork and control freaked ends in disaster
The severity of lockdown needs to take into account how strictly it is being observed.
So if on a scale of 0-100 where 0 is business as usual and 100 is nobody is even allowed to open their doors for any reason whatsoever we have a lockdown severity of say 85. France is about 90.
But crucially the average citizen is at something like 75-80, because some people are not fully observing the rules. So the govt needs to make a judgement on whether to officially lower the rules from a level of 85. Right now i;d say the average number is dropping due to people getting fed up and the disobeyance levels creeping up. There may be a scientific case for it dropping, but the government feels it can't change the official rules otherwise it will drop too far, as more people will not obey.
This is bad news for the majority of people - who are sticking like good citizens at 85. But i think the govt for now is judging it can't officially relax, because relaxation is happening by "leakage" anyway. I think that's probably right.
Sensible post.
If the majority decide to drop the lockdown and its ends up 50-50 there is literally no way for the government to enforce it. Yes I was bemused by the tweet from North Yorks Police fining a car for "taking a drive". But if half the population did it we would get away with it because significant cuts to the police over the last decade means very very few of them.
Absolutely nothing to do with me agreeing with him on no early end to the lockdown.
Pretty typical Boris speech of the formal kind - less chaotic than his more informal stuff, relatively stirring, optimistic. Plenty dont like his style, but it's generally effective.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
Where was it you did your medical training again?
I have the Scouts first aid badge which puts me in a strong position to be the next CMO of Scotland.
For once you've surprised me, I was sure you'd have been Hauptscharführer in the local BB.
I forgot you are stuck in 1916.
On a more serious topic - are the number of tests in Scotland lagging the ramp up in the rest of the Uk ?
1,400 performed yesterday out of a total of 29,000+
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
The one thing that would massively improve the good old English beer garden would be table service, instead of having to fight your way to the bar past a scrum of vertical drinkers determined to keep you out.
Wetherspoons have a table service app.
Next step - which some places were looking into, is self service. Taps in the middle of the table, automated, pay by card
Your choices are either “Fosters”, “Strongbow”, or “Chardonnay”.
In that case, I'll have a Covid 19 please.
Special or Export
I'll get my coat - the military bio-chemical warfare suit on the left, please.
Also just to add that I have been lurking for a while, believe me when I say that this site has the most well informed comment out there by some distance
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
I can only repeat what I said. The key decisions here are not about health or about the economy or about personal liberty. They are about politics. And the calculus of political risk is IMO clear. It steers to keeping the lockdown largely in place for a while yet. I explained why this is the case. The government agrees with me.
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
If you’re right - and I think you are - that this is a political decision, let’s stop having all this bollocks about “we’re just following the science”. Governments have never just followed the science before - even when we’ve had diseases quite as infectious or dangerous as this one.
The science plays an important part in the decision-making, maybe the most important part for now. But it is not the only factor. Here or in any other country.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
You say this like it's some horror scenario for them. Of course people will be less happy to consent as time goes by, it's a major reason they justified holding off on measures.
Fact is its supported by a high base so it will still likely be some time before it actually is no longer supported by most people.
Your interpretation is just silly. You might as well point out we're aging by the hour, oh what horror.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
Yes. There are so many confounding variables, that we have little clear overall idea why particular countries have much higher or lower death rates. What thing, for example, makes for the difference between NI and the Republic ? Is it just the policy differences ?
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
Welcome back. Very sorry to hear about your wife's condition/diagnosis.
I suspect that unfortunately your wife's experience isn't uncommon at the moment.
We're all suffering a once in a century calamity and its bloody terrible.
Germany flips to Apple-Google approach on smartphone contact tracing
Germany changed course on Sunday over which type of smartphone technology it wanted to use to trace coronavirus infections, backing an approach supported by Apple and Google along with a growing number of other European countries.
An open letter from hundreds of scientists published last Monday warned that, if the contact tracing data was centralised, it would allow “unprecedented surveillance of society at large”.
You are a stalwart Conservative, would be councillor and have been loyal to the party for many years. It is something to be proud of.
But what is disappointing is that you seem to be putting party before country. Now, that may just be the way things are on both sides of the political divide. But it is disappointing and not a great way to run a country.
Boris is in my view still the best PM for the country and half the art of doing the job effectively is delegation, as Brown and May showed overwork and control freaked ends in disaster
As RR said: "they say hard work never killed anybody, but I figured, why take the chance?"
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
Google is divided on the subject, but If you are right the genuine third world can expect even worse outcomes among its even younger population.
The severity of lockdown needs to take into account how strictly it is being observed.
So if on a scale of 0-100 where 0 is business as usual and 100 is nobody is even allowed to open their doors for any reason whatsoever we have a lockdown severity of say 85. France is about 90.
But crucially the average citizen is at something like 75-80, because some people are not fully observing the rules. So the govt needs to make a judgement on whether to officially lower the rules from a level of 85. Right now i;d say the average number is dropping due to people getting fed up and the disobeyance levels creeping up. There may be a scientific case for it dropping, but the government feels it can't change the official rules otherwise it will drop too far, as more people will not obey.
This is bad news for the majority of people - who are sticking like good citizens at 85. But i think the govt for now is judging it can't officially relax, because relaxation is happening by "leakage" anyway. I think that's probably right.
Sensible post.
If the majority decide to drop the lockdown and its ends up 50-50 there is literally no way for the government to enforce it. Yes I was bemused by the tweet from North Yorks Police fining a car for "taking a drive". But if half the population did it we would get away with it because significant cuts to the police over the last decade means very very few of them.
Yes that's true. Lockdown can only work with public consent.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
The proportion of old people in the population is going to be one of the factors, but your argument would be stronger (and less annoying) if you didn't overstate it and dismiss any other factors.
For example the German state Sachsen-Anhalt has 7.8% people 80 or over, whereas Bavaria has 6%.
Deaths per million Sachsen-Anhalt: 16 Bavaria: 125
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
The virus can fuck you up. For a long time, perhaps permanently. Far more terrifying than the death stats.
Two of the people I know who have had it - one of them quite badly - have made complete recoveries. I know a third person who ended up in hospital. They got through it, but I don’t know how they are now.
One of my mates had it and was laid up in bed for a week with chest pains, fever the lot... and I go running with him at the weekends
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
That is sad news. My best wishes to you both.
I'm very sorry to hear that, too; all the best. And I hope TSE gives you a parole.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
So sorry to hear about your wife's situation, and the impact COVID is having on you both.
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
It seems the haters think
The cabinet are not up to it without him there
But they’ve diagnosed him as still very ill and therefore doing more harm than good
...and he was useless before he got ill anyway
Maybe we should just let Starmer be PM (with Blair Cameron, Major, May and Brown helping out as Alastair Campbell suggested?) Always a way...
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
I can only repeat what I said. The key decisions here are not about health or about the economy or about personal liberty. They are about politics. And the calculus of political risk is IMO clear. It steers to keeping the lockdown largely in place for a while yet. I explained why this is the case. The government agrees with me.
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
If you’re right - and I think you are - that this is a political decision, let’s stop having all this bollocks about “we’re just following the science”. Governments have never just followed the science before - even when we’ve had diseases quite as infectious or dangerous as this one.
The science plays an important part in the decision-making, maybe the most important part for now. But it is not the only factor. Here or in any other country.
I think your conclusion is right but you've undermined it in your first sentence unnecessarily.
That there are political considerations and political decisions does not mean the emphasis on following the science is 'bollocks'. Its not complete, as a decision based on scientific advice remains partly political or based on other factors depending on range of options is indeed not just following science. But that doesnt mean its bollocks.
But I am surprised and disappointed that you trivialise the emphasis as bollocks as though that decision to have that emphasis is meaningless. I think that's quite petty and mistaken particularly as you're hanging it all on a single word 'just' which is not even universally used when they talk about following the science.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
Welcome back. Very sorry to hear about your wife's condition/diagnosis.
I suspect that unfortunately your wife's experience isn't uncommon at the moment.
We're all suffering a once in a century calamity and its bloody terrible.
Good luck to both of you.
Echoed. Nice that you're back. Good luck to you both.
He just keeps on winning the argument. What a bloke.
Not sure why his supporters pout all the time about losing - if his ideas happen why do they care who gets credit?
One would have to be super high minded not to feel a frisson of resentment that it's the folk who said all these ideas were shit who are now making them happen.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Perhaps Boris will appear on the The Andrew Marr Show this Sunday. There are certainly a lot of questions for him that people would like answers to. Even if your role is as a frontman, you need to have answers to the main questions such as what is the strategy to end the lockdown, what criteria need to be met, when will restrictions start being lifted etc. I give Boris two days, or perhaps until the next PMQs on Wednesday to come up with the answers. There is no halfway house with being Prime Minister. If he wants to come back to the job, he has to do the job.
Boris will act as per the advice he gets and as he has a comfortable majority of 80 and most new Tory MPs owe their election to him regardless of what you think there is no prospect of him ceasing to be PM for years
You are a stalwart Conservative, would be councillor and have been loyal to the party for many years. It is something to be proud of.
But what is disappointing is that you seem to be putting party before country. Now, that may just be the way things are on both sides of the political divide. But it is disappointing and not a great way to run a country.
Boris is in my view still the best PM for the country and half the art of doing the job effectively is delegation, as Brown and May showed overwork and control freaked ends in disaster
A 100% Boris you may well be right, at least until we get the measure of SKS.
But at present we don't have a 100% Boris. We until this morning had a 0% Boris. Now we have a ??% Boris. That is the issue.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
I thought the PC Police deemed that terms such as Third World were verboten these days.
People like that should be offered a months stay in the fun* bits of Lagos. They will rapidly find there are worse things than finding the organic Belgian smoked beer has run out.
*As in absolutely-no-fun-for-the-poor-barstewards-who-live-there
Germany flips to Apple-Google approach on smartphone contact tracing
Germany changed course on Sunday over which type of smartphone technology it wanted to use to trace coronavirus infections, backing an approach supported by Apple and Google along with a growing number of other European countries.
An open letter from hundreds of scientists published last Monday warned that, if the contact tracing data was centralised, it would allow “unprecedented surveillance of society at large”.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
Also just to add that I have been lurking for a while, believe me when I say that this site has the most well informed comment out there by some distance
Good to hear, and welcome back. Very sorry to hear of your home situation.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
I thought "second world" was the USSR and it's sphere of influence?
So we still have a first world and third world but don't really have a second world any more.
Hello everyone, I used to post as Nigel4England before being banned a couple of years ago. Now that I have confessed to that TSE will probably chop me again, but I hope not as I promise to behave myself.
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
Sorry to hear that. I remember having a few barneys with your previous incarnation. I think the general policy is fairly forgiving of prodigal sons as long as they learn to count up to 6 million.
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
It seems the haters think
The cabinet are not up to it without him there
But they’ve diagnosed him as still very ill and therefore doing more harm than good
...and he was useless before he got ill anyway
Maybe we should just let Starmer be PM (with Blair Cameron, Major, May and Brown helping out as Alastair Campbell suggested?) Always a way...
Given the Tories have a majority of 80 no way will Starmer be PM before the next general election, even if Boris did go it would be Sunak not Starmer replacing him
Germany flips to Apple-Google approach on smartphone contact tracing
Germany changed course on Sunday over which type of smartphone technology it wanted to use to trace coronavirus infections, backing an approach supported by Apple and Google along with a growing number of other European countries.
An open letter from hundreds of scientists published last Monday warned that, if the contact tracing data was centralised, it would allow “unprecedented surveillance of society at large”.
No South Korean style contact tracing for Germany.
" In Europe, France and Britain still back centralisation. "
Are you sure about Britain? I haven't seen a definitive statement on it. They have said they are working with Google/Apple which might imply the data staying on the phone
Germany flips to Apple-Google approach on smartphone contact tracing
Germany changed course on Sunday over which type of smartphone technology it wanted to use to trace coronavirus infections, backing an approach supported by Apple and Google along with a growing number of other European countries.
An open letter from hundreds of scientists published last Monday warned that, if the contact tracing data was centralised, it would allow “unprecedented surveillance of society at large”.
No South Korean style contact tracing for Germany.
" In Europe, France and Britain still back centralisation. "
It is as I feared, looking very messy. Different countries, different standards, all voluntary apps, all very concerned about the state appearing to have too much insight into citizens lives.
And then you compare it against the gold standard, South Korea. And South Korea have now decided it doesn't go far enough, some people have been caught going out without their phones when in supposed isolation, thus they are now looking into mandating tracking bracelets on people.
I fear in the West these apps will give people a false sense of security, while not being that effective.
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
I can only repeat what I said. The key decisions here are not about health or about the economy or about personal liberty. They are about politics. And the calculus of political risk is IMO clear. It steers to keeping the lockdown largely in place for a while yet. I explained why this is the case. The government agrees with me.
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
If you’re right - and I think you are - that this is a political decision, let’s stop having all this bollocks about “we’re just following the science”. Governments have never just followed the science before - even when we’ve had diseases quite as infectious or dangerous as this one.
The science plays an important part in the decision-making, maybe the most important part for now. But it is not the only factor. Here or in any other country.
I happen to agree with extending the lockdown until new hospital admissions with Covid-19 are of the order "trickle" but following THE SCIENCE (what?) has become a crude hammer to squash debate. I would prefer not to hear the phrase again from either the government or its apologists.
Also just to add that I have been lurking for a while, believe me when I say that this site has the most well informed comment out there by some distance
Very sorry to hear that about your wife. I hope things can be sorted out soon.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am.
It is clearly a nonsense to expect anyone to go straight back to 12 hour days. I expect he will take the very most important decisions. And spend a lot resting. At least I hope so.
If you are back you need to be fully back, in that job anyway. I'm not sure phased returning works for PMs.
Were it not for people fluttering in a panic at his absence it wouldnt be an issue to take more time.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
I thought "second world" was the USSR and it's sphere of influence?
So we still have a first world and third world but don't really have a second world any more.
It's one of those phrases that has changed meaning a bit in the post-Soviet world.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
Google is divided on the subject, but If you are right the genuine third world can expect even worse outcomes among its even younger population.
No 3rd world countries are in the top 10 nations for coronavirus death rates precisely as none of them have averagw life expectancy over 80 and most of them do not even have average life expectancy over 70 and it is only once you get to life expectancy over 70 nations that you see a real climb in percentage death rate given that is the age group most at risk
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
I can only repeat what I said. The key decisions here are not about health or about the economy or about personal liberty. They are about politics. And the calculus of political risk is IMO clear. It steers to keeping the lockdown largely in place for a while yet. I explained why this is the case. The government agrees with me.
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
If you’re right - and I think you are - that this is a political decision, let’s stop having all this bollocks about “we’re just following the science”. Governments have never just followed the science before - even when we’ve had diseases quite as infectious or dangerous as this one.
The science plays an important part in the decision-making, maybe the most important part for now. But it is not the only factor. Here or in any other country.
I think your conclusion is right but you've undermined it in your first sentence unnecessarily.
That there are political considerations and political decisions does not mean the emphasis on following the science is 'bollocks'. Its not complete, as a decision based on scientific advice remains partly political or based on other factors depending on range of options is indeed not just following science. But that doesnt mean its bollocks.
But I am surprised and disappointed that you trivialise the emphasis as bollocks as though that decision to have that emphasis is meaningless. I think that's quite petty and mistaken particularly as you're hanging it all on a single word 'just' which is not even universally used when they talk about following the science.
I am not trivialising it. I just think it is oversimplifying what is a complex and very difficult decision where there is no obviously right answer because any choice has unpalatable consequences.
There needs I think to be more openness and discussion about what the implications are of a statement like Tobias Ellwood’s this morning or about Boris urging us not to be impatient. What does this mean and for how long?
The uncertainty - whether we are looking at weeks or months or potentially years of lockdown - is as much of a problem as the actual lockdown itself. People / businesses can hang on for weeks. When it is months or years very different decisions will be taken. And people deserve a more intelligent discussion than they are getting from government Ministers about the implications and about how or how much the science should inform the political and economic decisions being taken.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
I thought "second world" was the USSR and it's sphere of influence?
So we still have a first world and third world but don't really have a second world any more.
It's one of those phrases that has changed meaning a bit in the post-Soviet world.
The general usage (if any) of second world is for those countries that have progressed from being third world, with a growing segment of the population living in "first world" conditions. But with a substantial section of the population still living in the getting-clean-water-is-still-a-problem zone.
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
It seems the haters think
The cabinet are not up to it without him there
But they’ve diagnosed him as still very ill and therefore doing more harm than good
...and he was useless before he got ill anyway
Maybe we should just let Starmer be PM (with Blair Cameron, Major, May and Brown helping out as Alastair Campbell suggested?) Always a way...
Given the Tories have a majority of 80 no way will Starmer be PM before the next general election, even if Boris did go it would be Sunak not Starmer replacing him
You are talking about the kind of people who pass the wine glass over a bowl of water, when the EU is mentioned...
He just keeps on winning the argument. What a bloke.
Not sure why his supporters pout all the time about losing - if his ideas happen why do they care who gets credit?
One would have to be super high minded not to feel a frisson of resentment that it's the folk who said all these ideas were shit who are now making them happen.
Granted. Why does Corbyn put though? He's supposed to much more high minded and does not seek acclaim.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
Poor physics. They've have been better off asking them to run around.
Better to get them to lie on the floor I think. Maximum transfer of body heat, floor can then slowly warm up the room.
UK official deaths over 20 000, Ecuador official deaths about 500.
So even if missing deaths added UK total deaths would still likely be higher than Ecuador's (though UK life expectancy is only 5 years above Ecuador's anyway).
Completely confirming that Covid is worse with older populations
This was only one single province of Ecuador that had 10k excess deaths. Almost certainly the worst, but there will be a lot more. For comparison, London is about the same population and had 4k excess deaths.
Excess deaths will also have some unpredictable elements in the whole - lives will have been saved by lockdown, eg flu or accident deaths, others cost (eg heart attacks). The figures in the FT attempt to depict the sum effect of all this, and they came up with 15k for England and Wales. That's not on top of official covid deaths, that's the entirety.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
Google is divided on the subject, but If you are right the genuine third world can expect even worse outcomes among its even younger population.
No 3rd world countries are in the top 10 nations for coronavirus death rates precisely as none of them have averagw life expectancy over 80 and most of them do not even have average life expectancy over 70 and it is only once you get to life expectancy over 70 nations that you see a real climb in percentage death rate given that is the age group most at risk
No rich superspreaders getting the plane there from their skiing holiday helps!
That seems unacceptable to me. Delaying key cancer treatment. I can't get my head around that - even allowing for the imperative to stay on top of the virus.
I feel the same about the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying.
These are value judgments that I struggle to share.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
Poor physics. They've have been better off asking them to run around.
Better to get them to lie on the floor I think. Maximum transfer of body heat, floor can then slowly warm up the room.
On understanding the English Language.Thermodynamics of Corona transmission ... people with PPE degrees.
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
I can only repeat what I said. The key decisions here are not about health or about the economy or about personal liberty. They are about politics. And the calculus of political risk is IMO clear. It steers to keeping the lockdown largely in place for a while yet. I explained why this is the case. The government agrees with me.
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
If you’re right - and I think you are - that this is a political decision, let’s stop having all this bollocks about “we’re just following the science”. Governments have never just followed the science before - even when we’ve had diseases quite as infectious or dangerous as this one.
The science plays an important part in the decision-making, maybe the most important part for now. But it is not the only factor. Here or in any other country.
I think your conclusion is right but you've undermined it in your first sentence unnecessarily.
That there are political considerations and political decisions does not mean the emphasis on following the science is 'bollocks'. Its not complete, as a decision based on scientific advice remains partly political or based on other factors depending on range of options is indeed not just following science. But that doesnt mean its bollocks.
But I am surprised and disappointed that you trivialise the emphasis as bollocks as though that decision to have that emphasis is meaningless. I think that's quite petty and mistaken particularly as you're hanging it all on a single word 'just' which is not even universally used when they talk about following the science.
I am not trivialising it. I just think it is oversimplifying what is a complex and very difficult decision where there is no obviously right answer because any choice has unpalatable consequences.
There needs I think to be more openness and discussion about what the implications are of a statement like Tobias Ellwood’s this morning or about Boris urging us not to be impatient. What does this mean and for how long?
The uncertainty - whether we are looking at weeks or months or potentially years of lockdown - is as much of a problem as the actual lockdown itself. People / businesses can hang on for weeks. When it is months or years very different decisions will be taken. And people deserve a more intelligent discussion than they are getting from government Ministers about the implications and about how or how much the science should inform the political and economic decisions being taken.
I'm sorry but I think you did trivialise it. That's why I think your conclusion and indeed explanation is right and I agree with it, but dismissing what theyve said as bollocks, a lazy oversimplification of the type you yourself have just criticised, undermined the validity of your point.
Describe something as simply bollocks and the nuanced point you wanted to make is severely let down.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Wow. 10,000 extra deaths prorated up = 39,000 extra uk deaths. In fact uk has 15,600 extra deaths. Knocking on the head both "it's worse with older populations" and "it doesn't like the heat."
And good for Ecuador for producing what I thought we would never see - first world quality data from a third world country.
Ecuador is not third world, second world at most
I thought "second world" was the USSR and it's sphere of influence?
So we still have a first world and third world but don't really have a second world any more.
It's one of those phrases that has changed meaning a bit in the post-Soviet world.
The non aligned aspect of 'Third World' seems to have gone by the board, originally that included Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland and Yugoslavia.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
Poor physics. They've have been better off asking them to run around.
Better to get them to lie on the floor I think. Maximum transfer of body heat, floor can then slowly warm up the room.
Lower maximum density of peasants though (unless lying on top of one another).
Comments
Put it this way, does it get clicks if you show pictures of quiet parks, relatively empty streets and trains, and orderly queues respecting social distancing at the greengrocers? Yet that's by far the more typical situation.
I don't particularly blame the media for this, but people need to be more savvy about it. It isn't wrong to cover incidents where social distancing isn't being achieved, just like it is perfectly proper to cover a nasty crime or a scandal in a charity or whatever. But it doesn't make it typical.
Hospital staff in COVID wards
Hospital staff in non COVID wards
Staff in shops
Transport workers
Care home residents
Care home workers
Other categories?
Perhaps you are right and me and "Boris" are wrong. Perhaps there would be little public backlash if the UK ends up with a second wave and the worst Covid-19 death toll in Europe. Hopefully we will not get to test that hypothesis.
When my hair gets too long it really gives me the pip.
So if on a scale of 0-100 where 0 is business as usual and 100 is nobody is even allowed to open their doors for any reason whatsoever we have a lockdown severity of say 85. France is about 90.
But crucially the average citizen is at something like 75-80, because some people are not fully observing the rules. So the govt needs to make a judgement on whether to officially lower the rules from a level of 85. Right now i;d say the average number is dropping due to people getting fed up and the disobeyance levels creeping up. There may be a scientific case for it dropping, but the government feels it can't change the official rules otherwise it will drop too far, as more people will not obey.
This is bad news for the majority of people - who are sticking like good citizens at 85. But i think the govt for now is judging it can't officially relax, because relaxation is happening by "leakage" anyway. I think that's probably right.
But what is disappointing is that you seem to be putting party before country. Now, that may just be the way things are on both sides of the political divide. But it is disappointing and not a great way to run a country.
I've been in the market for some 10kg Olympic weights. Even checked a site called Very. In the past, they have been chock full of stuff, albeit pricey, but I have used them with a discount code before. It looks like Genghis Khan and his horde of been through the site! It's all been snaffled, presumably on interest free credit that people won't pay in time and get loaded up with 39.9% apr in 12 months time.
We have also acquired a sewing machine and are going to teach ourselves sewing. At this rate we will end up dressed like the children in The Sound of Music marching round the Cumbrian countryside with my knitted cardigans for warmth.
Kirstie Allsopp had better watch out!
People often copy what others do and there'll be more examples of breaking lockdown rules where the most people are. Unfortunately, that also increases infection risks...
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/27/national/tokyo-barber-telecut-coronavirus/
As a 'quick fix,' customers of Mr. Brothers Cut Club get real-time tutorials via video-conferencing
UK official deaths over 20 000, Ecuador official deaths about 500.
So even if missing deaths added UK total deaths would still likely be higher than Ecuador's (though UK life expectancy is only 5 years above Ecuador's anyway).
Completely confirming that Covid is worse with older populations
Edit: a Corona was a sitter for me and I missed it!
Timpson will reopen 40 of its outlets this week.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52438693
I have mellowed anyway, I have had to take early retirement as my wife was diagnosed with secondary breast cancer a year ago, it has spread to her bones and as such is incurable.
One of the side effects of this ghastly virus is that part of her treatment has been suspended. She has oral chemotherapy, she takes one tablet every day and another that she takes for 21 days, then has a 7 day break. After that she has a blood test to check that her bloods are OK before the next 21 day course.
We had a call from the oncologist to say that as the drug she takes on a 21 day cycle is an immunosuppressant she has to stop taking it, which the oncologist confirmed will increase the chances of the cancer spreading quicker than otherwise.
I know that others are in a far worse situation but just thought I would highlight an actual example of the true devastating effect of all this.
On a more serious topic - are the number of tests in Scotland lagging the ramp up in the rest of the Uk ?
1,400 performed yesterday out of a total of 29,000+
I'll get my coat - the military bio-chemical warfare suit on the left, please.
The science plays an important part in the decision-making, maybe the most important part for now. But it is not the only factor. Here or in any other country.
Fact is its supported by a high base so it will still likely be some time before it actually is no longer supported by most people.
Your interpretation is just silly. You might as well point out we're aging by the hour, oh what horror.
What thing, for example, makes for the difference between NI and the Republic ? Is it just the policy differences ?
I suspect that unfortunately your wife's experience isn't uncommon at the moment.
We're all suffering a once in a century calamity and its bloody terrible.
Good luck to both of you.
Germany changed course on Sunday over which type of smartphone technology it wanted to use to trace coronavirus infections, backing an approach supported by Apple and Google along with a growing number of other European countries.
An open letter from hundreds of scientists published last Monday warned that, if the contact tracing data was centralised, it would allow “unprecedented surveillance of society at large”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe-tech/germany-flips-on-smartphone-contact-tracing-backs-apple-and-google-idUSKCN22807J
No South Korean style contact tracing for Germany.
For example the German state Sachsen-Anhalt has 7.8% people 80 or over, whereas Bavaria has 6%.
Deaths per million Sachsen-Anhalt: 16
Bavaria: 125
And I hope TSE gives you a parole.
https://www.oag.com/blog/chinese-domestic-capacity-grows-again-but-global-capacity-falls-0
The cabinet are not up to it without him there
But they’ve diagnosed him as still very ill and therefore doing more harm than good
...and he was useless before he got ill anyway
Maybe we should just let Starmer be PM (with Blair Cameron, Major, May and Brown helping out as Alastair Campbell suggested?) Always a way...
That there are political considerations and political decisions does not mean the emphasis on following the science is 'bollocks'. Its not complete, as a decision based on scientific advice remains partly political or based on other factors depending on range of options is indeed not just following science. But that doesnt mean its bollocks.
But I am surprised and disappointed that you trivialise the emphasis as bollocks as though that decision to have that emphasis is meaningless. I think that's quite petty and mistaken particularly as you're hanging it all on a single word 'just' which is not even universally used when they talk about following the science.
Nice that you're back. Good luck to you both.
But at present we don't have a 100% Boris. We until this morning had a 0% Boris. Now we have a ??% Boris. That is the issue.
*As in absolutely-no-fun-for-the-poor-barstewards-who-live-there
So we still have a first world and third world but don't really have a second world any more.
Good luck, I hope your situation improves.
And then you compare it against the gold standard, South Korea. And South Korea have now decided it doesn't go far enough, some people have been caught going out without their phones when in supposed isolation, thus they are now looking into mandating tracking bracelets on people.
I fear in the West these apps will give people a false sense of security, while not being that effective.
Excellent username, btw.
Were it not for people fluttering in a panic at his absence it wouldnt be an issue to take more time.
There needs I think to be more openness and discussion about what the implications are of a statement like Tobias Ellwood’s this morning or about Boris urging us not to be impatient. What does this mean and for how long?
The uncertainty - whether we are looking at weeks or months or potentially years of lockdown - is as much of a problem as the actual lockdown itself. People / businesses can hang on for weeks. When it is months or years very different decisions will be taken. And people deserve a more intelligent discussion than they are getting from government Ministers about the implications and about how or how much the science should inform the political and economic decisions being taken.
You are talking about the kind of people who pass the wine glass over a bowl of water, when the EU is mentioned...
https://www.ft.com/content/a2f66f6a-50cb-46fe-a160-3854e4702f1c
This was only one single province of Ecuador that had 10k excess deaths. Almost certainly the worst, but there will be a lot more. For comparison, London is about the same population and had 4k excess deaths.
Excess deaths will also have some unpredictable elements in the whole - lives will have been saved by lockdown, eg flu or accident deaths, others cost (eg heart attacks). The figures in the FT attempt to depict the sum effect of all this, and they came up with 15k for England and Wales. That's not on top of official covid deaths, that's the entirety.
That seems unacceptable to me. Delaying key cancer treatment. I can't get my head around that - even allowing for the imperative to stay on top of the virus.
I feel the same about the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying.
These are value judgments that I struggle to share.
https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1254456216174149635
Describe something as simply bollocks and the nuanced point you wanted to make is severely let down.
“Which epidemiologist do you believe?
The debate about lockdown is not a contest between good and evil”
https://unherd.com/2020/04/which-epidemiologist-do-you-believe/