After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
The fact that people are returning to work in droves (if indeed they are) suggests that many do not believe your scaremongering and are prepared to accept the 'risks'
Droves vs a working population of more than 30m.
All I see is a slight move towards working within the actual rules - e.g. takeaways have reorganised their business processes and can now safely reopen, B&Q have done the same.
Is that a surprise? My expectation is that business will adapt to the regulations because it has to. The extension of the furlough scheme till June, made 10 days ago, was the only policy indication that the Govt have made, and it suggests a longish lockdown.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
But if furlough was stopped or even reduced, that view would change in a split second.
Furlough was introduced explicitly because the government was preventing people from working. It makes no sense to talk of the two not ending in concert.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
How was the Spanish flu eventually overcome? I have no idea and, in shocking news to PB, I am not an epidemiologist. But don't these things subside?
@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.
We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?
Smoking, AFAIK, isn't infectious.
The economy as we knew it before Covid 19 is ruined - lockdown or no lockdown. Life becomes much easier when you recognise this.
Not my point. I am talking about the principle of following health advice to the letter.
The government says that it has no greater task than to save lives. What do you suppose the health advice would be on smoking? The government allows its citizens to die and NHS resources to be used by people who smoke. They have made that political decision.
We are in an analogous (note: not similar) position here.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
No, he really can't...
On 13 February, Johnson conducted a ministerial reshuffle that completed the purge of experienced “grown-ups” from the government and backbenches that began at the end of the last parliament. He instead awarded top jobs to relative mediocrities whose top qualifications were their loyalty to the Prime Minister and commitment to Brexit. In Johnson’s absence, the likes of Dominic Raab, Matthew Hancock and Priti Patel have found themselves running the country.
How the lockdown is being eased in Guernsey: Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
How was the Spanish flu eventually overcome? I have no idea and, in shocking news to PB, I am not an epidemiologist. But don't these things subside?
@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.
We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?
Smoking, AFAIK, isn't infectious.
The economy as we knew it before Covid 19 is ruined - lockdown or no lockdown. Life becomes much easier when you recognise this.
We are not going to accept this government spin bullsh8t. The government had agency, it had choice, it had the precedent of no government in British history ever doing what it has done.
Since the start of lockdown its had had clear evidence that the lockdown was killing people through diseases completely unrelated to Corana while it blithely bankrupted the country.
It had even clearer evidence that the economic implications of its absurd actions were far, far worse than anybody realised.
It completely ignored this evidence and pressed on with a policy it could have pulled out of at any time
The government is culpable. It is responsible. It should be judged, and it will be.
How the lockdown is being eased in Guernsey: Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
How the lockdown is being eased in Guernsey: Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
Germany's easing seems not overly dissimilar to our lockdown.
Edit. Guernsey....no edit button.
Incidentally, I've noticed most countries 'easing' has actually left them with more stringent rules than we have now. Its why I don't see us lifting the lockdown substantially for months - we have much less leeway and are 2 weeks behind mainland Europe in the infection stage.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
The virus can fuck you up. For a long time, perhaps permanently. Far more terrifying than the death stats.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
How was the Spanish flu eventually overcome? I have no idea and, in shocking news to PB, I am not an epidemiologist. But don't these things subside?
@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.
We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?
Smoking, AFAIK, isn't infectious.
The economy as we knew it before Covid 19 is ruined - lockdown or no lockdown. Life becomes much easier when you recognise this.
We are not going to accept this government spin bullsh8t. The government had agency, it had choice, it had the precedent of no government in British history ever doing what it has done.
Since the start of lockdown its had had clear evidence that the lockdown was killing people through diseases completely unrelated to Corana while it blithely bankrupted the country.
It had even clearer evidence that the economic implications of its absurd actions were far, far worse than anybody realised.
It completely ignored this evidence and pressed on with a policy it could have pulled out of at any time
The government is culpable. It is responsible. It should be judged, and it will be.
Yeah, whatever.
You and a few cranks on the internet vs the vast majority of the population and factual evidence.
Shops were closing (I know, I closed mine), offices were WFH, pubs and restaurants had started closing already.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
It is clearly a nonsense to expect anyone to go straight back to 12 hour days. I expect he will take the very most important decisions. And spend a lot resting. At least I hope so.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
No, he really can't...
On 13 February, Johnson conducted a ministerial reshuffle that completed the purge of experienced “grown-ups” from the government and backbenches that began at the end of the last parliament. He instead awarded top jobs to relative mediocrities whose top qualifications were their loyalty to the Prime Minister and commitment to Brexit. In Johnson’s absence, the likes of Dominic Raab, Matthew Hancock and Priti Patel have found themselves running the country.
The Gordon Brown approach of the PM trying to control everything personally is not a plan. In fact it is demonstrably a bad idea.
Every time I hear the "Got to work an 18 hour day, and then read 27 red boxes of material", I think of the Mythical Man Month and this -
"Coster buried his face in his hands, then looked up. "I know it. I know what needs to be done—but every time I try to tackle a technical problem some bloody fool wants me to make a decision about trucks —or telephones—or some damn thing. I'm sorry, Mr. Harriman. I thought I could do it. "
How the lockdown is being eased in Guernsey: Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
Germany's easing seems not overly dissimilar to our lockdown.
Edit. Guernsey....no edit button.
Incidentally, I've noticed most countries 'easing' has actually left them with more stringent rules than we have now. Its why I don't see us lifting the lockdown substantially for months - we have much less leeway and are 2 weeks behind mainland Europe in the infection stage.
The much talked about German easing of the lockdown is basically small shops open and kids who need be in school to do exams are to return. Merkel has already made it clear pubs, clubs, restaurants, cinemas etc won't be reviewed until the end of August.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
No, he really can't...
On 13 February, Johnson conducted a ministerial reshuffle that completed the purge of experienced “grown-ups” from the government and backbenches that began at the end of the last parliament. He instead awarded top jobs to relative mediocrities whose top qualifications were their loyalty to the Prime Minister and commitment to Brexit. In Johnson’s absence, the likes of Dominic Raab, Matthew Hancock and Priti Patel have found themselves running the country.
Yes he can, Sunak and Raab are both Oxbridge educated, Sunak was a top banker and Raab a top lawyer
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
The virus can fuck you up. For a long time, perhaps permanently. Far more terrifying than the death stats.
Two of the people I know who have had it - one of them quite badly - have made complete recoveries. I know a third person who ended up in hospital. They got through it, but I don’t know how they are now.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
The virus can fuck you up. For a long time, perhaps permanently. Far more terrifying than the death stats.
Yep, I saw a thread on twitter at the weekend on someone who had a second attack a week after they thought they had recovered from it.
The description of the second attack was that it was way worse than the first.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
He will decide when to end the lockdown and how based on the advice he was given.
Last December Boris won the biggest Tory voteshare since 1979 and the biggest Tory majority since 1987, so as long as Boris is alive he will remain Tory leader until at least past the next general election
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
You keep posting the same stuff a dozen times a day without any evidence to support it. What polling evidence there is suggests the majority still support the lockdown.
Nobody wants it and of course people are getting fed up with it but they fear the alternative more. For sure they want to know what the exit strategy looks like but there have been enough hints given as to broadly how it is going to happen.
The out-and-out "end lockdown now" agitators are pretty much the same people they have been saying that all along, Toby Young, Peter Hitchens, Dan Hannan. Even if they had the power to do so I doubt that any one of them would have had the guts to do what they are now advocating.
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
And that actually he spent the last few weeks secretly burying bodies in the grounds of Chequers?
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
And that actually he spent the last few weeks secretly burying bodies in the grounds of Chequers?
Listening to R4 this morning, it's clear that the '50m test kits ordered' news from the weekend was 90% bollocks. The Oxford team have identified a particular antigen which might make the basis for such a test (it works very reliably, with both high specificity and high sensitivity to identify the those who have been infected, but only using specialised, low throughput lab equipment). Putting together a validated design for mass testing kits will take at least three months (in normal times seven to nine months). And then they have to be manufactured.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
Suspect Boris wont do the 5pm briefing today. But will later in the week.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
None planned. We have a gaudy in September that none of us really think is going to happen... Its different, for sure, but many of us are self-employed or have significant periods working from home anyway. I wonder if thats the difference. Pretty much all escaped the office rat race a few years ago. I'm spending longer periods walking the dog, a good few hours a day cooking lovely and complicated meals.
Too many people seem to want yes/no all-or-nothing outcomes.
"If we can't do x, we should go back to normal and just bury our loved ones when the time comes..."
There are so many options on the table, many of which need us to know more.
Key questions: - Are children uniquely non-spreading/non-vulnerable? I've seen some claims to that which could be plausible, but also, today, a suggestion that they could be vulnerable to a different presentation of the virus. Need to know which way. And, if it's the former, to what degree? What age? (after all, I doubt the virus carries out an age-check. Puberty would suggest itself as plausible, as would the enhanced immune system in young childhood). It's possible that reopening primary schools could have zero public health implications. And it's also possible that doing so would kill tens of thousands of our children; we really need to know which...
- Are the lung/kidney effects that many seem to have after recovery permanent? If so, the long-running effects are quite a lot worse. Tell the younger demographics: "You're very unlikely to die. Oh, but your health may well be be impaired for the rest of your life. And any future similar pandemics - you'll be one of those "with underlying health conditions..."
- How do we develop a fast and reliable antibodies test? What level of antibodies gives reliable immunity?
- Can we roll out a fast and reliable antigens test (to test if you've got it right now). If we could roll out cheqap, plentiful, reliable and near-instant tests for this, then we win: if you have it, self-isolate. If you can demonstrate you don't, into the restaurant with the others; no problem.
- How rapidly can we develop and roll out a reliable vaccine (CAN we do so)? Initial feedback seems promising; the more time, the better.
- What social distancing interventions provide the biggest impact to Rt? If we're at 0.67 (as estimated by Imperial College) and Sweden is at 1.27, we can lift restrictions to half-way between the two and still continue to push infections down. But what are the levels (one estimate does not make proof), and what interventions can be lifted to get to that level?
- Can we continue to tweak businesses and activity around social distancing? Which ones can we, and which can't we?
- Can we treat it better? If so, not so much of a problem. If not; we need to look at more.
Listening to R4 this morning, it's clear that the '50m test kits ordered' news from the weekend was 90% bollocks. The Oxford team have identified a particular antigen which might make the basis for such a test (it works very reliably, with both high specificity and high sensitivity to identify the those who have been infected, but only using specialised, low throughput lab equipment). Putting together a validated design for mass testing kits will take at least three months (in normal times seven to nine months). And then they have to be manufactured.
I think it was clear it was when Raab dismissed it yesterday, saying he had no knowledge of ordering 50m kits. There is no way he wouldn't know.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
I see the Boris/brexit derangement crowd are now saying that Boris was simultaneously not that sick and his hospitalisation was a hoax for sympathy but still very sick so why did he come back.
And that actually he spent the last few weeks secretly burying bodies in the grounds of Chequers?
So many babies to eat, so little time......
The obvious answer to summation of the BDS theories is that Boris died, but is better now. Kind of....
All hail the undead PM. Clearly he has to limit the amount of sunlight....
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
But if furlough was stopped or even reduced, that view would change in a split second.
Furlough was introduced explicitly because the government was preventing people from working. It makes no sense to talk of the two not ending in concert.
Of course it makes no sense. But then if lockdown is to continue until there is a vaccine is the government going to spend the humongous amounts of money that will mean?
Someone - a journalist even- might ask some of these questions.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
He will decide when to end the lockdown and how based on the advice he was given.
Last December Boris won the biggest Tory voteshare since 1979 and the biggest Tory majority since 1987, so as long as Boris is alive he will remain Tory leader until at least past the next general election
He may well do. I just question whether it is best for the country for it to be lead by someone who is far from 100%.
Character matters, and politicians need more than just a grip on the figures to succeed. Frank Luntz, the American pollster who has known Johnson since their time as students at Oxford University, told me when I was researching a previous profile of the prime minister that he had never met anyone “so obviously talented yet so quickly dismissed by critics because he doesn't conform to their definitions or expectations.” Johnson’s skill, Luntz said, was to appeal to the heart, not the head. Andrew Gimson, one of Johnson’s biographers, told me that part of Johnson’s appeal lies in his ability to speak to people’s aspirations. “We all want, with at least part of our minds, to believe that the crisis can be surmounted,” he told me. “So Boris as leader is showing by his boosterism that he is intent on taking us where we actually want to go.”
First Zoom meeting of week completed - a fellow SMT member and one of my team updating on a project we're working on. We spent half of it talking about our respective efforts in getting obliterati shitfaced over the weekend. And such is every weekend - I have a virtual party in the diary for Saturday night and a real hangover in the diary for Sunday morning...
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Reagan's cabinet were competent.
Reagan as with all American Presidents can pick anyone he wanted.
Boris has to pick from elected MPs and the odd Lord. Given that no one sane would want to be an MP (far more money for less hassle elsewhere) he hasn't got much to choose from.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
None planned. We have a gaudy in September that none of us really think is going to happen... Its different, for sure, but many of us are self-employed or have significant periods working from home anyway. I wonder if thats the difference. Pretty much all escaped the office rat race a few years ago. I'm spending longer periods walking the dog, a good few hours a day cooking lovely and complicated meals.
We're having quizzes on zoom, virtual drinks etc.
I think you've answered your own question. For that subset of the population who were already partially isolating, the lockdown is just a variation on a theme.
The analogy here is the triple lock pensioners sitting prettily at the expense of those younger citizens.
Character matters, and politicians need more than just a grip on the figures to succeed. Frank Luntz, the American pollster who has known Johnson since their time as students at Oxford University, told me when I was researching a previous profile of the prime minister that he had never met anyone “so obviously talented yet so quickly dismissed by critics because he doesn't conform to their definitions or expectations.” Johnson’s skill, Luntz said, was to appeal to the heart, not the head. Andrew Gimson, one of Johnson’s biographers, told me that part of Johnson’s appeal lies in his ability to speak to people’s aspirations. “We all want, with at least part of our minds, to believe that the crisis can be surmounted,” he told me. “So Boris as leader is showing by his boosterism that he is intent on taking us where we actually want to go.”
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Reagan's cabinet were competent.
Reagan as with all American Presidents can pick anyone he wanted.
Boris has to pick from elected MPs and the odd Lord. Given that no one sane would want to be an MP (far more money for less hassle elsewhere) he hasn't got much to choose from.
Not technically true. He could have sacked HanCock and replaced him with Sir Chris Whitty as Health Secretary. Cabinet members do not have to be members of either House - as happens with the proroguing of parliament before a General Election.
Johnson is optimistic and upbeat when he has nothing to be optimistic and upbeat about. But he is holding the line for a few days longer, which is good.
This article is well worth the read.
I'm not comfortable with the "win", " defeat" language. Living with a virus principally requires discipline, which is not a Johnson strength.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
None planned. We have a gaudy in September that none of us really think is going to happen... Its different, for sure, but many of us are self-employed or have significant periods working from home anyway. I wonder if thats the difference. Pretty much all escaped the office rat race a few years ago. I'm spending longer periods walking the dog, a good few hours a day cooking lovely and complicated meals.
We're having quizzes on zoom, virtual drinks etc.
I think you've answered your own question. For that subset of the population who were already partially isolating, the lockdown is just a variation on a theme.
The analogy here is the triple lock pensioners sitting prettily at the expense of those younger citizens.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Perhaps Boris will appear on the The Andrew Marr Show this Sunday. There are certainly a lot of questions for him that people would like answers to. Even if your role is as a frontman, you need to have answers to the main questions such as what is the strategy to end the lockdown, what criteria need to be met, when will restrictions start being lifted etc. I give Boris two days, or perhaps until the next PMQs on Wednesday to come up with the answers. There is no halfway house with being Prime Minister. If he wants to come back to the job, he has to do the job.
I think I've discovered the group of people who annoy me the most. Amateur gold investors. I don't care that gold is at a record high and I don't care that you've doubled your investment over 94 years or however long it's taken.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
But if furlough was stopped or even reduced, that view would change in a split second.
Furlough was introduced explicitly because the government was preventing people from working. It makes no sense to talk of the two not ending in concert.
Of course it makes no sense. But then if lockdown is to continue until there is a vaccine is the government going to spend the humongous amounts of money that will mean?
Someone - a journalist even- might ask some of these questions.
It is not (not least because the economy would be beyond broken). Government thinking on how they intend to lift it is entirely opaque. The reason presented for that is to avoid 'distracting' the public. Which is repeated, ad nauseam, in reply to any journalists asking.
Whether that is credible, whether it's just insulting to the intelligence of the public, whether it's because government itself has little in the way of coherent plans... are all open questions.
I think I've discovered the group of people who annoy me the most. Amateur gold investors. I don't care that gold is at a record high and I don't care that you've doubled your investment over 94 years or however long it's taken.
You obviously don't spend much time listening to those involved with crypto...
Surely the lockdown exit strategy will depend on a daily update of information.
Publishing a rigid strategy is utterly daft and will result in "wah wah you said Pastry chefs would be able to go back by the 7th of June and its now the 8th - why did you lie to us prime minister ?"
Like the "ventilator" crisis - turns out we have plenty, we got some processes in motion just in case and they aren't whats needed for treatment anyway.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
I wonder what the result would be if the country was asked: “Do you want to be unemployed and on Universal Credit for 18 months to 2 years until a vaccine is found?”
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Perhaps Boris will appear on the The Andrew Marr Show this Sunday. There are certainly a lot of questions for him that people would like answers to. Even if your role is as a frontman, you need to have answers to the main questions such as what is the strategy to end the lockdown, what criteria need to be met, when will restrictions start being lifted etc. I give Boris two days, or perhaps until the next PMQs on Wednesday to come up with the answers. There is no halfway house with being Prime Minister. If he wants to come back to the job, he has to do the job.
Boris will act as per the advice he gets and as he has a comfortable majority of 80 and most new Tory MPs owe their election to him regardless of what you think there is no prospect of him ceasing to be PM for years
Does - does Hitchen thinks that if we'd ignored it, the coronavirus would just have... sort of... gone away?
That can work for attention-seeking toddler tantrums, but this is somewhat different.
Hitchens, like the government at the start of the pandemic, is still thinking this can be though of in the same way as flu. The government has learned it was wrong. Hitchens is clearly the Bourbon of his family.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
So scrub those 2 and 1/2 days in August off the calendar then.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
I wonder what the result would be if the country was asked: “Do you want to be unemployed and on Universal Credit for 18 months to 2 years until a vaccine is found?”
Prof Farzan was very optimistic that there are a number of non-vaccine avenues from effective treatments to making antibodies to provide a short term boost to immunity.
Does - does Hitchen thinks that if we'd ignored it, the coronavirus would just have... sort of... gone away?
That can work for attention-seeking toddler tantrums, but this is somewhat different.
Hitch has really gone off the deep end with this lockdown (even for him)
He's latest argument seems to be that we had a similar number of deaths in the entirety of the 99/00 flu season to what we've seen in the past few weeks with Covid-19 - ignoring the fact that 99/00 is for the entirety a winter season where-as the deaths we've seen from COVID-19 so far is been a much more limited time-frame and during a period of national lockdown.
He's basically making the point that Covid-19 is far more serious than the 99/00 flu bug but doesn't seem to realize it.
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis https://nyti.ms/34QerxA
Even if true none of that disputes a single thing I said given life expectancy in Ecuador is 77.6 compared to a global average of 73 Ecuador may have few over 80s but it has lots more over 70s compared to the global average and the death rate from Covid really starts to climb once you get over 70
It is a very young country, with a median age of 27 and only 1% of the male population above 80 (compared to Italy 5% UK 4%) and entirely demolishes your claim about old age being the most important predictor of outcomes
Median age is irrelevant, there are far more over 70s and over 80s in Ecuador than most developing countries certainly compared to Nigeria or India as a percentage of population for example. Plus Ecuador still has a significantly lower death rate than Italy and the UK anyway.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
You cannot be serious about believing the numbers on Worldometer surely? If you look at excess deaths- the most reliable game in town - Ecuador is 83% above the norm; UK 33%
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Have you not got 3 or 4 post lockdown reunions planned? Lockdown is miserable, I'm lucky that I have someone to share the misery with and a flat with a nice roof terrace that catches the sun until about 6pm. Everyone can't wait for it to be over with so we can get down to the beer gardens.
Might want to hold your horses. If we follow Germany's example, we won't be opening pubs until well past the time of year that one can sit in the beer garden.
Tbf, I'm ok with the beer garden year round. We did someone's leaving drinks in January at the Crown and Shuttle in their beer garden, everyone just had to wear a coat and sit near the outdoor heaters. A few pints in and it didn't matter that we were outside.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
I think I've discovered the group of people who annoy me the most. Amateur gold investors. I don't care that gold is at a record high and I don't care that you've doubled your investment over 94 years or however long it's taken.
Back when the Internet was still young I had an amusing exchange with a gold ramper who finally admitted that he stored his loot with a 'specialist depository' and all he got for his financial acumen was a piece of paper saying (I paraphrase) "sure we've got your gold - come and get it whenever you need it."
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
Not if the hairdresser comes to you and you're not going out much.
I think I've discovered the group of people who annoy me the most. Amateur gold investors. I don't care that gold is at a record high and I don't care that you've doubled your investment over 94 years or however long it's taken.
Back when the Internet was still young I had an amusing exchange with a gold ramper who finally admitted that he stored his loot with a 'specialist depository' and all he got for his financial acumen was a piece of paper saying (I paraphrase) "sure we've got your gold - come and get it whenever you need it."
Or ... I promise to pay the bearer on demand...
Wait, he didn't buy the physical gold? What's the point?
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
Where was it you did your medical training again?
I have the Scouts first aid badge which puts me in a strong position to be the next CMO of Scotland.
Given the scenes on Westminster Bridge for the past few Thursdays I've never been sure entirely sure Londoners have taken the lockdown seriously....
From behind my twitching curtains, I have observed something of a detachment from what people say publically and what they do privately. Much as I hate the phrase with a passion, there is a certain degree of "virtue signalling" going on with respect to the lockdown. I am sure that everyone on this board are paragons of lawfulness and community spirit, but I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that many others who have been enthuiastically clapping on Thursday nights, denouncing their compatriots as "covidiots" on Twitter and local FB groups, and answering closed-ended polling questions supportive of the lockdown, and generally getting on a moral high horse, while privately breaching the new regulations to varying degrees of seriousness. I've seen it in action round here.
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
Bit hard to hide you've been to the barbers though when everyone else obeying the rules is sporting a mullet....
People do possess their own clippers. I'm seriously contemplating the #2 treatment for my flowing locks if this goes on much longer...
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
He has been in no position to set the direction for the past month and I'm none too sure he is able to set it now that he has "returned".
I don't see why not. He'll be able to absorb and set the "big picture" directions while delegating a lot of minutiae for others. Which given the entire Cabinet and machinery of government is working on this now essentially is entirely the correct thing to do anyway.
The quality of the remote medical expertise on here this morning is astounding. Their diagnostic skills on Boris's present condition based on a 10 minute video - very impressive.
Any idiot could see that his lung capacity/efficiency was far from 100%. Or to put it in simple terms, he was out of breath.
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
Most people will appreciate his health is likely to be sub perfect but on an upward trajectory.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
Where was it you did your medical training again?
I have the Scouts first aid badge which makes me over qualified to be the next CMO of Scotland.
Comments
All I see is a slight move towards working within the actual rules - e.g. takeaways have reorganised their business processes and can now safely reopen, B&Q have done the same.
Is that a surprise? My expectation is that business will adapt to the regulations because it has to. The extension of the furlough scheme till June, made 10 days ago, was the only policy indication that the Govt have made, and it suggests a longish lockdown.
And they wonder why people don't trust them
The government says that it has no greater task than to save lives. What do you suppose the health advice would be on smoking? The government allows its citizens to die and NHS resources to be used by people who smoke. They have made that political decision.
We are in an analogous (note: not similar) position here.
On 13 February, Johnson conducted a ministerial reshuffle that completed the purge of experienced “grown-ups” from the government and backbenches that began at the end of the last parliament. He instead awarded top jobs to relative mediocrities whose top qualifications were their loyalty to the Prime Minister and commitment to Brexit. In Johnson’s absence, the likes of Dominic Raab, Matthew Hancock and Priti Patel have found themselves running the country.
Since the start of lockdown its had had clear evidence that the lockdown was killing people through diseases completely unrelated to Corana while it blithely bankrupted the country.
It had even clearer evidence that the economic implications of its absurd actions were far, far worse than anybody realised.
It completely ignored this evidence and pressed on with a policy it could have pulled out of at any time
The government is culpable. It is responsible. It should be judged, and it will be.
You and a few cranks on the internet vs the vast majority of the population and factual evidence.
Shops were closing (I know, I closed mine), offices were WFH, pubs and restaurants had started closing already.
Every time I hear the "Got to work an 18 hour day, and then read 27 red boxes of material", I think of the Mythical Man Month and this -
"Coster buried his face in his hands, then looked up. "I know it. I know what needs to be done—but every time I try to tackle a technical problem some bloody fool wants me to make a decision about trucks —or telephones—or some damn thing. I'm sorry, Mr. Harriman. I thought I could do it. "
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.80UP.MA.5Y?end=2018&start=2018&view=bar
The description of the second attack was that it was way worse than the first.
Last December Boris won the biggest Tory voteshare since 1979 and the biggest Tory majority since 1987, so as long as Boris is alive he will remain Tory leader until at least past the next general election
Nobody wants it and of course people are getting fed up with it but they fear the alternative more. For sure they want to know what the exit strategy looks like but there have been enough hints given as to broadly how it is going to happen.
The out-and-out "end lockdown now" agitators are pretty much the same people they have been saying that all along, Toby Young, Peter Hitchens, Dan Hannan. Even if they had the power to do so I doubt that any one of them would have had the guts to do what they are now advocating.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8260213/Coronavirus-UK-Roads-jam-packed-traffic-Tubes-look-busier.html
You'd end up with a lot less death and the economy locally could reopen with a lot more confidence.
So it entirely supports my claim that old age is the main predictor of outcomes
The Oxford team have identified a particular antigen which might make the basis for such a test (it works very reliably, with both high specificity and high sensitivity to identify the those who have been infected, but only using specialised, low throughput lab equipment).
Putting together a validated design for mass testing kits will take at least three months (in normal times seven to nine months). And then they have to be manufactured.
We're having quizzes on zoom, virtual drinks etc.
"If we can't do x, we should go back to normal and just bury our loved ones when the time comes..."
There are so many options on the table, many of which need us to know more.
Key questions:
- Are children uniquely non-spreading/non-vulnerable? I've seen some claims to that which could be plausible, but also, today, a suggestion that they could be vulnerable to a different presentation of the virus.
Need to know which way. And, if it's the former, to what degree? What age? (after all, I doubt the virus carries out an age-check. Puberty would suggest itself as plausible, as would the enhanced immune system in young childhood). It's possible that reopening primary schools could have zero public health implications. And it's also possible that doing so would kill tens of thousands of our children; we really need to know which...
- Are the lung/kidney effects that many seem to have after recovery permanent? If so, the long-running effects are quite a lot worse. Tell the younger demographics: "You're very unlikely to die. Oh, but your health may well be be impaired for the rest of your life. And any future similar pandemics - you'll be one of those "with underlying health conditions..."
- How do we develop a fast and reliable antibodies test? What level of antibodies gives reliable immunity?
- Can we roll out a fast and reliable antigens test (to test if you've got it right now). If we could roll out cheqap, plentiful, reliable and near-instant tests for this, then we win: if you have it, self-isolate. If you can demonstrate you don't, into the restaurant with the others; no problem.
- How rapidly can we develop and roll out a reliable vaccine (CAN we do so)? Initial feedback seems promising; the more time, the better.
- What social distancing interventions provide the biggest impact to Rt? If we're at 0.67 (as estimated by Imperial College) and Sweden is at 1.27, we can lift restrictions to half-way between the two and still continue to push infections down. But what are the levels (one estimate does not make proof), and what interventions can be lifted to get to that level?
- Can we continue to tweak businesses and activity around social distancing? Which ones can we, and which can't we?
- Can we treat it better? If so, not so much of a problem. If not; we need to look at more.
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1254466107991359491
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1254466439379107842
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1254466678492139521
All hail the undead PM. Clearly he has to limit the amount of sunlight....
Showing he's back and getting a message out of "control your impatience" is exactly what Johnson needed to do today.
Someone - a journalist even- might ask some of these questions.
So should you although I'm guessing you won't.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/boris-johnson-recovery-coronavirus-pandemic/610675/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Relation's 60th birthday.
Red, white, gin and pernod was a bit taxing.
Boris has to pick from elected MPs and the odd Lord. Given that no one sane would want to be an MP (far more money for less hassle elsewhere) he hasn't got much to choose from.
He's clearly too dim to read the personal message from Boris this morning: "Oi, Peston, STFU...."
The analogy here is the triple lock pensioners sitting prettily at the expense of those younger citizens.
Now he has to do another 10 minutes work.
He's the guy who's specialised in helping peddle absurdities to the public for a couple of decades.
https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis https://nyti.ms/34QerxA
This article is well worth the read.
I'm not comfortable with the "win", " defeat" language. Living with a virus principally requires discipline, which is not a Johnson strength.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1254698294040768512
That can work for attention-seeking toddler tantrums, but this is somewhat different.
Government thinking on how they intend to lift it is entirely opaque. The reason presented for that is to avoid 'distracting' the public. Which is repeated, ad nauseam, in reply to any journalists asking.
Whether that is credible, whether it's just insulting to the intelligence of the public, whether it's because government itself has little in the way of coherent plans... are all open questions.
Publishing a rigid strategy is utterly daft and will result in "wah wah you said Pastry chefs would be able to go back by the 7th of June and its now the 8th - why did you lie to us prime minister ?"
Like the "ventilator" crisis - turns out we have plenty, we got some processes in motion just in case and they aren't whats needed for treatment anyway.
A flexible approach is what is required.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-contenders-and-challenges-in-the-race-to-cure-covid
What that could mean for the governance of our country is a legitimate topic for debate.
The government has learned it was wrong. Hitchens is clearly the Bourbon of his family.
He will be better tomorrow than today. And then the day after.
He's latest argument seems to be that we had a similar number of deaths in the entirety of the 99/00 flu season to what we've seen in the past few weeks with Covid-19 - ignoring the fact that 99/00 is for the entirety a winter season where-as the deaths we've seen from COVID-19 so far is been a much more limited time-frame and during a period of national lockdown.
He's basically making the point that Covid-19 is far more serious than the 99/00 flu bug but doesn't seem to realize it.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254471487039377410
This behaviour will inevitably increase. An underground market for certain services (I'm thinking hairdressers initially) will inevitably start to emerge. No-one will want to admit it but they'll start taking advantage of this and the lockdown will fray from the edges.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1254710293365751808?s=20
Or ... I promise to pay the bearer on demand...
https://twitter.com/JoeTall/status/1254621688773226496?s=20
I'm seriously contemplating the #2 treatment for my flowing locks if this goes on much longer...