Conclusive demonstration of the role of the proofreading segment in the acovid genome:
The coronavirus proofreading exoribonuclease mediates extensive viral recombination https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.057786v1 ... RNA recombination is required during normal CoV replication for subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) synthesis and generates defective viral genomes (DVGs) of unknown function. However, the determinants and patterns of CoV recombination are unknown. Here, we show that divergent β-CoVs SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) perform extensive RNA recombination in culture, generating similar patterns of recombination junctions and diverse populations of DVGs and sgmRNAs. We demonstrate that the CoV proofreading nonstructural protein (nsp14) 3-to-5 exoribonuclease (nsp14-ExoN) is required for normal CoV recombination and that its genetic inactivation causes significantly decreased frequency and altered patterns of recombination in both infected cells and released virions. Thus, nsp14-ExoN is a key determinant of both high fidelity CoV replication and recombination, and thereby represents a highly-conserved and vulnerable target for virus inhibition and attenuation.
That's very promising, not only in providing a target, but in suggesting, because of its use of a proofreading protein, that significant mutations are less likely and therefore longer lasting vaccines and antibodies more likely.
I watched (about half of) Michael Farzan's lecture yesterday. He reckoned that if it does mutate, future mutations will tend to become less effective.
I based my remark on Farzan's lecture. Here is one of his introductory slides.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
Looks like that work might have wider application for attacking all coronavirus types?
It is looking like many, many years of virology research is now being squashed into a few months. Good job, Science Guys and Gals.
Well the particular error correction mechanism (and its experimental inactivation) was only demonstrated in the Covid and MERS viruses - though I think it exists also in the original SARS virus. It’s certainly not in all coronaviruses: “ The b-coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV) lacking nsp14-ExoN activity has significantly decreased and altered distribution of RNA recombination events..”. Like this one, they have their own different proofreading mechanisms, with different functionality.
It’s a very interesting result, but I don’t expect any therapeutic arriving particularly soon. A vaccine seems a better bet in the short term.
So this protein both ensures fidelity of RNA replication, and increased recombination. Surely, the latter is potentially bad news for a vaccine if it increases the frequency of recombination events for the RNA coding for the S protein?
If this particular protein is reasonably widespread in the betacoronaviruses, it also means that there should be a highish probability of more zoonotic novel coronavirus diseases emerging because of recombination events.
Well, it's an exoribonuclease rather than the protein that's present in the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus itself (the protein is a product it manufactures when reproducing in cells). There seem to be completely different mechanisms in other coronaviruses (like the MHV virus), but yes, performing a similar role.; ...therefore, CoVs perform recombination as a normal part of their replication, producing complex populations of recombined RNA molecules... It's just that this one seems to have hit on the right balance of genetic variability and stability to be very successful. And it seems unlikely to evolve a different method of targeting its ACE cell receptor target given just how effective it is at doing so now.
This is all fairly new stuff, as it's only recently that we've had the technology to sequence in tandem so many different bits of viral RNA as it's reproducing; Prior to the advent of next generation sequencing, direct analysis of recombined CoV RNAs was not possible and the determinants of recombination could not be identified...
Coronaviruses seem to jump between species from their main bat hosts very frequently (and not just in China), but only a small proportion get into humans, and only a small proportion of those ones which get into humans acquire the ability to readily infect other humans. Not least because most are enteric rather than respiratory viruses.
I thought it could be pretty much the eclipse of any major European Empire, from Spain to 1920s-30s Germany.
And I did actually think about France (I allege), and the Romans.
Just been listening to a so-called "intimacy coordinator" discussing how they will do 'intimacy' between actors with social distancing. All about 'intimacy is a dance between movements of two bodies and lots of guff'.
Longest version of "we're up shit creek without a paddle but I hope to assume one" I have heard for some time. They need an economist.
Mr. rkrkrk, she does. As others have mentioned New Zealand is in a very good position to do that, given its population spread and geographical isolation.
The NZ alert level system is very good and clear. Completely blows away the argument that you cannot talk about the end of lockdown. Rather by giving a clear path out, it strengthens the current status.
I assumed it couldn't be Britain on reading the headline, so my first thought with the first lines was France. But couldn't make it fit with the little I know about Napoleon, so gave up.
But if this is really an attempt to draw a parallel between Brexit and 17th-18th century France it's not very convincing.
See my latest comment. The most interesting point for me from that period - taking only an English perspective - is how England was able to take advantage of 2 mistakes by France and 1 Dutch decision (done for perfectly rational geopolitical reasons) to make itself top dog.
Whether that is an analogy for Brexit or not or whether Brexit Britain is the lumbering slowly declining French State I will leave for others.
For me it was a Sunday jeu d’esprit before we all got bogged down - yet again - in the bloody C*****V****.
A thread on PI results for the first Chinese vaccine. The data look good (and it seems to provide protection against various strains evolved outside of China, too). But being an ‘old fashioned” inactivated virus vaccine, will be relatively expensive and slow to manufacture in quantity (though many countries have the necessary plants).
Looks like that work might have wider application for attacking all coronavirus types?
It is looking like many, many years of virology research is now being squashed into a few months. Good job, Science Guys and Gals.
Well the particular error correction mechanism (and its experimental inactivation) was only demonstrated in the Covid and MERS viruses - though I think it exists also in the original SARS virus. It’s certainly not in all coronaviruses: “ The b-coronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV) lacking nsp14-ExoN activity has significantly decreased and altered distribution of RNA recombination events..”. Like this one, they have their own different proofreading mechanisms, with different functionality.
It’s a very interesting result, but I don’t expect any therapeutic arriving particularly soon. A vaccine seems a better bet in the short term.
So this protein both ensures fidelity of RNA replication, and increased recombination. Surely, the latter is potentially bad news for a vaccine if it increases the frequency of recombination events for the RNA coding for the S protein?
If this particular protein is reasonably widespread in the betacoronaviruses, it also means that there should be a highish probability of more zoonotic novel coronavirus diseases emerging because of recombination events.
Well, it's an exoribonuclease rather than the protein that's present in the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus itself (the protein is a product it manufactures when reproducing in cells). There seem to be completely different mechanisms in other coronaviruses (like the MHV virus), but yes, performing a similar role.; ...therefore, CoVs perform recombination as a normal part of their replication, producing complex populations of recombined RNA molecules... It's just that this one seems to have hit on the right balance of genetic variability and stability to be very successful. And it seems unlikely to evolve a different method of targeting its ACE cell receptor target given just how effective it is at doing so now.
This is all fairly new stuff, as it's only recently that we've had the technology to sequence in tandem so many different bits of viral RNA as it's reproducing; Prior to the advent of next generation sequencing, direct analysis of recombined CoV RNAs was not possible and the determinants of recombination could not be identified...
Coronaviruses seem to jump between species from their main bat hosts very frequently (and not just in China), but only a small proportion get into humans, and only a small proportion of those ones which get into humans acquire the ability to readily infect other humans. Not least because most are enteric rather than respiratory viruses.
(edit - it's not clear to me from the paper whether the protein is then also incorporated in the virus).
The NZ alert level system is very good and clear. Completely blows away the argument that you cannot talk about the end of lockdown. Rather by giving a clear path out, it strengthens the current status.
People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.
This chart was posted yesterday, comparing the areas of England. I've been wondering why the south west line, although low, still seems so static, and whether this is saying anything about a potential 'background level' of infection in spite of locking down. Can any PBer enlighten me, please? (I hope the paste from yesterday works.)
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
The NZ alert level system is very good and clear. Completely blows away the argument that you cannot talk about the end of lockdown. Rather by giving a clear path out, it strengthens the current status.
I thought it could be pretty much the eclipse of any major European Empire, from Spain to 1920s-30s Germany.
And I did actually think about France (I allege), and the Romans.
Just been listening to a so-called "intimacy coordinator" discussing how they will do 'intimacy' between actors with social distancing. All about 'intimacy is a dance between movements of two bodies and lots of guff'.
Longest version of "we're up shit creek without a paddle but I hope to assume one" I have heard for some time. They need an economist.
David Smith dug out the old joke about a (male) economist being someone who knows 365 ways of making love but not any women yesterday. I am not sure that is the answer.
Lockdown and hot weather might be fraying tempers, and LibDems fasting on bacon won't help. Yesterday's walk to the fish and chip shop was marked by groups of men exchanging threats at one end of the road, and a double-slaying at the other. Domestic violence, up to and including murder, has doubled in the last three weeks. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52433520
Fortunately, summer ends today with a 10 degree Celsius drop forecast for the rest of the week. It is not just Covid-19 and the economy.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Bar Napoleon, Louis XIV was the most powerful and successful leader in French history who made France into the most powerful nation in Europe.
So not really sure what point this header is trying to make?
And then in his hubris made some critical errors which led to its decline. France’s military and diplomatic defeats started under him - in the last years of his reign. The Napoleonic victories a century or so later were a two decade exception.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Having seen glimpses of New Zealand from various test matches, I think I could deal with being "cooped up" on the islands for a couple of years.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
Lufthansa has asked Merkel for 10 billion dollars state aid
And Airbus has big problems and lay offs are certain across Europe
Indeed I do know quite a bit about Airbus in the UK but am not willing to go further just yet
And EU state aid rules....? Torn up?
Let the airlines go bust. It's a good moment to get companies to start paying for their negative externalities
No, it's really not. It is, if anything, the worst moment to do stuff like that. The core economic lesson from pandemics seems to be that pandemic-induced recessions can be of two natures: - Near-total rapid bounceback - Long-term damage taking ages to recover from.
The first kind is achieved by taking all required public health measures and doing whatever is possible to "pause" the economy. Worry about fairness, or justice, or whatever after things have returned to normal and you've bounced back.
It's not really a surprise that airlines are unprofitable and inefficient when they are not permitted to fly planes. In fact, if that were not the case, they'd not be very good at being airlines.
If we want to mess around changing costs of externalities, do it when they are back on healthy terms. Doing it now (for them and, of course, whatever else strikes our fancy to "level out" or gain "justice" or whatever, because if we do it for one, why not for others?) risks moving us to the state where we've permanently scarred our economy and won't get much bounceback.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Anyone coming in is going to be quarantined I'd have thought. Someone from New Zealand travelling abroad is no problem obviously.
But if they have eliminated the virus, then they can theoretically get the economy back to normal. Months before the UK and Europe.
THE SNP is so rotten it may have to be replaced by a new independence party, its former deputy leader has said
If another Nationalist party challenges the SNP at Holyrood next year but fails to pass the threshold for MSPs all that will do is split the Nationalist vote and enable a Unionist majority
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
Fascinating header. Are people in government (particularly this one) so ignorant of history? Are they so obsessed with shallow modernity and the moods of the moment - who's up? who's down? - as to lack any perspective on how and why the tectonic plates shift? It appears that they are. Because repeating the terrible mistakes of 300 years ago is not a good look. Even worse where those mistakes were not even our own but made by the French.
Very good by Boris. Again, we can discuss the whys and wherefores of whether the lockdown should continue (I do not necessarily think it should for too much longer) but it was a good speech setting out the government's policy.
One thing I noticed, is that on observation I would say, understandably, that his lung capacity/efficiency looks at some degree below 100%.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
New Zealand and China are highly linked - New Zealand was the first developed country China signed a trade deal with. There were loads of flights between the countries.
I assumed it couldn't be Britain on reading the headline, so my first thought with the first lines was France. But couldn't make it fit with the little I know about Napoleon, so gave up.
But if this is really an attempt to draw a parallel between Brexit and 17th-18th century France it's not very convincing.
See my latest comment. The most interesting point for me from that period - taking only an English perspective - is how England was able to take advantage of 2 mistakes by France and 1 Dutch decision (done for perfectly rational geopolitical reasons) to make itself top dog.
Whether that is an analogy for Brexit or not or whether Brexit Britain is the lumbering slowly declining French State I will leave for others.
For me it was a Sunday jeu d’esprit before we all got bogged down - yet again - in the bloody C*****V****.
Apologies for that.
To get back on topic, while glancing at the virus, here's a very good article on historical parallels, drawing them between Cuomo and Al Smith (a fascinating figure in 20th Century US politics):
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Having seen glimpses of New Zealand from various test matches, I think I could deal with being "cooped up" on the islands for a couple of years.
Indeed; I’d far rather we were in their position. I guess the question, when would we have needed to start shutting ourselves off and locking people down to be in that position? Perhaps it’s asking too much for a country like ours to have taken the pre-emotive action that was necessary.
Labour MP on BBC seems unaware that the govt has already been ringing round businesses telling them to get going.
Part of Starmer's rationale for being generally supportive at this time must be that individual Labour MPS appear to be appallingly briefed and informed.
Very good by Boris. Again, we can discuss the whys and wherefores of whether the lockdown should continue (I do not necessarily think it should for too much longer) but it was a good speech setting out the government's policy.
One thing I noticed, is that on observation I would say, understandably, that his lung capacity/efficiency looks at some degree below 100%.
Let’s hope he hasn’t come back too soon. You could interpret the speech as well talking about himself as well as the economy.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
As PB’s leading historian I knew it was the nation of collaborators straight away.
But it was an enjoyable read.
Go on then. Without looking it up, which famous Briton was responsible for suppressing the Parthenopean Republic?
Horatio Nelson?
Very good. And for your bonus point can you name the other Admiral involved?
Extra bonus points for knowing which events in a British island Nelson compared his actions to
(Of course, this was an occasion when the Revolutionary French were the good guys and the British were on the side of the bad guys. )
I’d have to google that.
OK. It was Admiral Caracciolo, who was hung by the British. The main sea-facing avenue in Naples (the one you see in all the postcards) is Via Caracciolo and off it comes Via Partenope.
Nelson reputedly said he would crush the rebels like the “rebellious provinces in Ireland”.
The Bourbon Queen the British helped put back on the throne of the Kingdom of Naples and the Two Sicilies was the sister of Marie-Antoinette. Of course, Napoleon had put his brother, Joseph, on the throne, followed by his brother, Murat. Nepotism was all the rage then.
It’s a fascinating period: this was the time when Pompei was discovered, when Sir William Hamilton collected some of its pots and brought them back for Wedgewood to use them as models for his vases etc. There is a very good historical novel about this written by, of all people, Susan Sontag - The Volcano Lover. Well worth catching.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The great frost of 1709 is generally thought to have been the greatest external shock sustained by our economy....until now.
We need to come out of the lockdown but we also need to recognise that each step will have a cost in lives and hospital resources. We must therefore focus on getting the biggest bang for our bucks which means identifying economic activities with modest risk but high rewards. Factories may be an obvious starting point as might offices even if these have restrictions on numbers actually attending on any given day. Public transport remains the biggest risk in our conurbations, essential and yet a very obvious vector for infection. This is going to be slow, difficult and frighteningly expensive.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Having seen glimpses of New Zealand from various test matches, I think I could deal with being "cooped up" on the islands for a couple of years.
Indeed; I’d far rather we were in their position. I guess the question, when would we have needed to start shutting ourselves off and locking people down to be in that position? Perhaps it’s asking too much for a country like ours to have taken the pre-emotive action that was necessary.
A country that was letting 15k people a day unchecked up until a couple of days ago was never going to be capable of that kind of preemptive action.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
I dunno... I hate the lockdown, like really hate it, and Boris’s speech made me sad, but he did a good job at convincing me of the continued necessity of it.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
Very good by Boris. Again, we can discuss the whys and wherefores of whether the lockdown should continue (I do not necessarily think it should for too much longer) but it was a good speech setting out the government's policy.
One thing I noticed, is that on observation I would say, understandably, that his lung capacity/efficiency looks at some degree below 100%.
It's going to be another 3-5 days before we know whether the lockdown measures have been successful enough to start easing them. The Boris speech was about getting people to stick to the lockdown rules as much as possible for that long.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-
1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed? 2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine? 3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living? 4. What happens if no vaccine is found?
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
If the anecdotals on folk going back to work are correct, people no longer care as much.
Its clear than having experienced lockdown, they are now willing to accept the risks and tolerate a higher rate of death than they previously would.
Second spike? maybe. Second lockdown? no chance
A friend of mine (yes, I know) who works for a large national infrastructure/utility company says they have been told to prepare for a) end lockdown end-May; and b) a six month lockdown in October again.
Can't see it myself, for the reasons you describe. We are just not going to put up with a lockdown over the winter months.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
Fascinating header. Are people in government (particularly this one) so ignorant of history? Are they so obsessed with shallow modernity and the moods of the moment - who's up? who's down? - as to lack any perspective on how and why the tectonic plates shift? It appears that they are. Because repeating the terrible mistakes of 300 years ago is not a good look. Even worse where those mistakes were not even our own but made by the French.
The only history they care about is an infantilised version of the history of plucky Britain in WW2, where in their minds the EU is the equivalent of Nazi Germany, not because it is, of course, even a moron can see it is nothing like, but nothing will be allowed to stop their dishonest populist narrative. They even try and turn the coronavirus crisis into a version of WW2, where we have our poundshop Winston, and where all industrialists are invited to participate in the great effort, whether or not they know anything about medical devices or diagnostics, provided, and only provided, they were vociferous supporters of the calamity known as Brexit. This is the reality of the Brexit-Party-Lite being in power.
It's going to be another 3-5 days before we know whether the lockdown measures have been successful enough to start easing them. The Boris speech was about getting people to stick to the lockdown rules as much as possible for that long.
Yes. In the scheme of things I think we are talking days not weeks. It's 10 days-odd to 7th May. Should be a clearer picture by then. Let's see how transparent they are on the thinking.
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
If the anecdotals on folk going back to work are correct, people no longer care as much.
Its clear than having experienced lockdown, they are now willing to accept the risks and tolerate a higher rate of death than they previously would.
Second spike? maybe. Second lockdown? no chance
Lockdown compliance has been observed better than expected, buoyed by the "protect the NHS" messaging, which is an appeal to duty and the nation.
Getting us out of lockdown will be more difficult and will need similarly evocative messaging telling people not only that they CAN go back to work but that they SHOULD go back: "do your duty, save the economy".
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
I do find it a bit odd that we have placed no restrictions on people flying into the country.
But - a genuine question this - we import (I think) about 40% of our food, much of it via lorries coming into Dover etc. Would we really want to close the borders to them or quarantine lorry drivers?
Has NZ closed its borders to imports?
Saying “close the borders” is easy. What it means in practice is a touch more complicated.
A slightly alarming report from the Paediatric Intensive Care group. It may not be as benign in children as thought, just that it presents differently.
According to that alarming thread same has apparently been reported in Italy, Spain and Washington DC and there's someone convinced Covid19 could be Lemierre's syndrome and recommends testing patients for certain kinds of anaerobic bacteria.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
If the anecdotals on folk going back to work are correct, people no longer care as much.
Its clear than having experienced lockdown, they are now willing to accept the risks and tolerate a higher rate of death than they previously would.
Second spike? maybe. Second lockdown? no chance
A friend of mine (yes, I know) who works for a large national infrastructure/utility company says they have been told to prepare for a) end lockdown end-May; and b) a six month lockdown in October again.
Can't see it myself, for the reasons you describe. We are just not going to put up with a lockdown over the winter months.
I can see it - I was hearing people in PHE talking about that pattern in Feb.
Though I don't see the winter lockdown being as severe as the current one, or as long as 6 months.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
You don't need to. You just quarantine them until they get on another plane.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
Wrong, we had none of the advantages of New Zealand, we are one of the most interconnected nations in the world, New Zealand is one of the most isolated nations in the world.
Barely any one travels to or through New Zealand anyway, even before coronavirus
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https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/799-new-covid-19-patients-in-singapore-taking-the-total-to-14-423?cx_testId=20&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s
https://twitter.com/portraitinflesh/status/1254675170339454977
https://twitter.com/alisonwallis60/status/1254676724421406726
I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian.
But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
There seem to be completely different mechanisms in other coronaviruses (like the MHV virus), but yes, performing a similar role.; ...therefore, CoVs perform
recombination as a normal part of their replication, producing complex populations of recombined RNA molecules...
It's just that this one seems to have hit on the right balance of genetic variability and stability to be very successful. And it seems unlikely to evolve a different method of targeting its ACE cell receptor target given just how effective it is at doing so now.
This is all fairly new stuff, as it's only recently that we've had the technology to sequence in tandem so many different bits of viral RNA as it's reproducing; Prior to the advent of next generation sequencing, direct analysis of recombined CoV RNAs was not possible and the determinants of recombination could not be identified...
Coronaviruses seem to jump between species from their main bat hosts very frequently (and not just in China), but only a small proportion get into humans, and only a small proportion of those ones which get into humans acquire the ability to readily infect other humans.
Not least because most are enteric rather than respiratory viruses.
And I did actually think about France (I allege), and the Romans.
Just been listening to a so-called "intimacy coordinator" discussing how they will do 'intimacy' between actors with social distancing. All about 'intimacy is a dance between movements of two bodies and lots of guff'.
Longest version of "we're up shit creek without a paddle but I hope to assume one" I have heard for some time. They need an economist.
Whether that is an analogy for Brexit or not or whether Brexit Britain is the lumbering slowly declining French State I will leave for others.
For me it was a Sunday jeu d’esprit before we all got bogged down - yet again - in the bloody C*****V****.
Extra bonus points for knowing which events in a British island Nelson compared his actions to
(Of course, this was an occasion when the Revolutionary French were the good guys and the British were on the side of the bad guys.
BORIS JOHNSON
BORIS JOHNSON
So not really sure what point this header is trying to make?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52433520
Fortunately, summer ends today with a 10 degree Celsius drop forecast for the rest of the week. It is not just Covid-19 and the economy.
Absolutely nothing to do with me agreeing with him on no early end to the lockdown.
The core economic lesson from pandemics seems to be that pandemic-induced recessions can be of two natures:
- Near-total rapid bounceback
- Long-term damage taking ages to recover from.
The first kind is achieved by taking all required public health measures and doing whatever is possible to "pause" the economy. Worry about fairness, or justice, or whatever after things have returned to normal and you've bounced back.
It's not really a surprise that airlines are unprofitable and inefficient when they are not permitted to fly planes. In fact, if that were not the case, they'd not be very good at being airlines.
If we want to mess around changing costs of externalities, do it when they are back on healthy terms. Doing it now (for them and, of course, whatever else strikes our fancy to "level out" or gain "justice" or whatever, because if we do it for one, why not for others?) risks moving us to the state where we've permanently scarred our economy and won't get much bounceback.
Someone from New Zealand travelling abroad is no problem obviously.
But if they have eliminated the virus, then they can theoretically get the economy back to normal. Months before the UK and Europe.
One thing I noticed, is that on observation I would say, understandably, that his lung capacity/efficiency looks at some degree below 100%.
To get back on topic, while glancing at the virus, here's a very good article on historical parallels, drawing them between Cuomo and Al Smith (a fascinating figure in 20th Century US politics):
The Time a New York Governor Disobeyed the Federal Government
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/25/al-smith-andrew-cuomo-federal-government-207603
Nelson reputedly said he would crush the rebels like the “rebellious provinces in Ireland”.
The Bourbon Queen the British helped put back on the throne of the Kingdom of Naples and the Two Sicilies was the sister of Marie-Antoinette. Of course, Napoleon had put his brother, Joseph, on the throne, followed by his brother, Murat. Nepotism was all the rage then.
It’s a fascinating period: this was the time when Pompei was discovered, when Sir William Hamilton collected some of its pots and brought them back for Wedgewood to use them as models for his vases etc. There is a very good historical novel about this written by, of all people, Susan Sontag - The Volcano Lover. Well worth catching.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
We need to come out of the lockdown but we also need to recognise that each step will have a cost in lives and hospital resources. We must therefore focus on getting the biggest bang for our bucks which means identifying economic activities with modest risk but high rewards. Factories may be an obvious starting point as might offices even if these have restrictions on numbers actually attending on any given day. Public transport remains the biggest risk in our conurbations, essential and yet a very obvious vector for infection. This is going to be slow, difficult and frighteningly expensive.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1254687137846484994?s=20
Its clear than having experienced lockdown, they are now willing to accept the risks and tolerate a higher rate of death than they previously would.
Second spike? maybe. Second lockdown? no chance
Afaics people are having no problem containing their patience, their impatience otoh...
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed?
2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine?
3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living?
4. What happens if no vaccine is found?
Can't see it myself, for the reasons you describe. We are just not going to put up with a lockdown over the winter months.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
Getting us out of lockdown will be more difficult and will need similarly evocative messaging telling people not only that they CAN go back to work but that they SHOULD go back: "do your duty, save the economy".
The public sector may be the most problematic.
"Captain Tom Moore (pictured) rose to notoriety having raised over £29million for the NHS by walking 100 lengths of his garden"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8259403/Queen-send-Captain-Tom-Moore-personalised-telegram-turns-100.html
But - a genuine question this - we import (I think) about 40% of our food, much of it via lorries coming into Dover etc. Would we really want to close the borders to them or quarantine lorry drivers?
Has NZ closed its borders to imports?
Saying “close the borders” is easy. What it means in practice is a touch more complicated.
https://sanchakblog.wordpress.com/2020/04/22/every-aspect-of-a-theory-may-not-hold-that-prevotella-is-synenergizing-with-sars-cov2-i-am-99-9999-sure-whether-it-infects-sars-cov2-i-am-not-sure/
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Though I don't see the winter lockdown being as severe as the current one, or as long as 6 months.
This is weekly deaths in the UK in the Spanish Flu epidemic. The multiple waves are as much an artefact of demographics and sociology, as they are of the virus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif
Barely any one travels to or through New Zealand anyway, even before coronavirus