New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
You don't need to. You just quarantine them until they get on another plane.
Is that what happens? Do they stay in hotels for their prescribed rest periods? Hotels staffed by New Zealanders presumably who do not go back to their homes or into the wider community at all?
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
BBC: PM 'cannot say' when lockdown eased. This epidemic is less dangerous than many that have preceded it, but it has lead to a much more drastic response. I cannot say how long I will continue to support the lockdown.
If Boris Johnson has not fully recovered from his infection soon then he should stand down as Prime Minister. He was elected as Conservative leader to lead Brexit and fight an election, both of which he has done. The main battle now is against coronavirus and it is hard to see how Boris's capabilities of political intrigue, spin, nuance and demagoguery match up to the skills that are required for this.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
You don't need to. You just quarantine them until they get on another plane.
Is that what happens? Do they stay in hotels for their prescribed rest periods? Hotels staffed by New Zealanders presumably who do not go back to their homes or into the wider community at all?
In China they are put in hotels where they are not allowed to leave their room, so minimal contacts with hotel staff.
THE SNP is so rotten it may have to be replaced by a new independence party, its former deputy leader has said
If another Nationalist party challenges the SNP at Holyrood next year but fails to pass the threshold for MSPs all that will do is split the Nationalist vote and enable a Unionist majority
The SNP manage fine with other pro-Independence parties like the Greens and minor Socialist parties because the threshold for the list vote is relatively low, and these parties mostly don't stand in the constituency seats.
To be a threat a new party would have to split the vote in the FPTP constituency part of the election sufficiently for the SNP to lose many of those seats - which would mean the new party would have to be above the threshold for gaining the list seats.
And even without that the simple excess death figure gives us a pretty good steer. What is meaningless, in the absence of evidence, is your claim that not locking down would cause less economic damage than locking down has. Show us your workings please.
You don't know what Canute was on about: he wasn't trying to command the tide, he was demonstrating that he couldn't. So, yes, you are accidentally kind of right: the government cannot command a virus.
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
The German system is successful because it's is essentially all privatised and the government doesn't get involved with running it except providing subsidised access to low and no income people.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
I thought polling showed there's still widespread support for lockdown?
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
I don't disagree on that and Germany has public health insurance not taxpayer funded single payer health like the NHS
It would have been an obvious trap for Boris' first speech back for him to start ladling out the goodies. He would have been accused, probably correctly, of playing politics. The good news will come over the coming days, and will probably be filtered through various Ministers, especially those like Hancock who need a bit of a boost.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?
Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.
The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Everyone in my running club has been running in isolation, we've made a whatsapp group and are currently doing a virtual Killamarsh to the (Edinburgh) Castle relay for charity. I've completed my leg, pegging it out of Dewsbury.
Perhaps runners are more introverted than the cyclists (Though plenty in my club do both)
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?
I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.
It would have been an obvious trap for Boris' first speech back for him to start ladling out the goodies. He would have been accused, probably correctly, of playing politics. The good news will come over the coming days, and will probably be filtered through various Ministers, especially those like Hancock who need a bit of a boost.
Agree.
It would have been bad for party unity (although something I wouldn't have put past Boris doing) if he came out and was the good cop to everyone else's bad cop.
In other news, Rupe's dagger to the heart of the British Libtard Broacasting Corporation is poised. Noteworthy how many actual BBC people he's poached.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-
1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed? 2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine? 3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living? 4. What happens if no vaccine is found?
At a guess
1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this. 2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative) 3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc 4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
Luckily this condition will respond to treatment. Dr. DA prescribes a Cannondale SystemSix Hi-Mod and a Castelli Gabba.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?
Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.
The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.
For one reason or another I am on a couple of area's community help groups which coordinate the response to vulnerable people with local food distribution groups and councillors.
On Saturday night, a message popped up: our neighbours are having people round. To which the answer by the councillor was "call 101".
Job done. Except. Is that really the country we are becoming? Shop your neighbour? Seemed pretty depressing, tbh.
People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.
This chart was posted yesterday, comparing the areas of England. I've been wondering why the south west line, although low, still seems so static, and whether this is saying anything about a potential 'background level' of infection in spite of locking down. Can any PBer enlighten me, please? (I hope the paste from yesterday works.)
THE SNP is so rotten it may have to be replaced by a new independence party, its former deputy leader has said
If another Nationalist party challenges the SNP at Holyrood next year but fails to pass the threshold for MSPs all that will do is split the Nationalist vote and enable a Unionist majority
The SNP manage fine with other pro-Independence parties like the Greens and minor Socialist parties because the threshold for the list vote is relatively low, and these parties mostly don't stand in the constituency seats.
To be a threat a new party would have to split the vote in the FPTP constituency part of the election sufficiently for the SNP to lose many of those seats - which would mean the new party would have to be above the threshold for gaining the list seats.
The Greens are an established party though with multiple MSPs, a new minor Nationalist party is unlikely to do as well but could split the Nationalist vote enough to hand enough MSPs on the list to Unionists rather than the SNP or split the SNP vote on the constituency vote enough to lose the SNP seats thus enabling a narrow Unionist majority at Holyrood the first time since 2007.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-
1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed? 2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine? 3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living? 4. What happens if no vaccine is found?
At a guess
1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this. 2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative) 3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc 4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.
Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?
5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.
A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.
People will feel a lot more confident moving around if the level of infection is low. There are sporadic outbreaks, you take basic precautions, but you are not too worried. Unfortunately the UK might be leaving lockdown at a high level of infection.
This chart was posted yesterday, comparing the areas of England. I've been wondering why the south west line, although low, still seems so static, and whether this is saying anything about a potential 'background level' of infection in spite of locking down. Can any PBer enlighten me, please? (I hope the paste from yesterday works.)
Isn’t Cheltenham in the SW? It is the least affected region?
Plymouth and Exeter have had a level of infection too - plenty of students in both. Elsewhere not so much - Torbay has had very few deaths recently for example. Which is encouraging, given how many over 70's it has there.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.
We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
But if furlough was stopped or even reduced, that view would change in a split second.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?
Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.
The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.
Here the police are now asking people to stop being vigilantes because they are being overwhelmed with dobbings in which turn out not to have any substance to them.
When we’re allowed to see family members, I wonder if the definition of “family member” will stretch enough to include “girls from Tinder”.
You are already allowed gatherings of two people under the existing law. Though Chief Constable Copper may get you under "essential".
That is with social distancing though, so you would need your teledildonic equipment. With appropriate interfaces.
You might be permitted to have “gatherings” of two people under the existing law but my understanding is that despite this, you are not allowed to leave your home unless it is for a “permitted reason”.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
Luckily this condition will respond to treatment. Dr. DA prescribes a Cannondale SystemSix Hi-Mod and a Castelli Gabba.
First Zoom meeting of week completed - a fellow SMT member and one of my team updating on a project we're working on. We spent half of it talking about our respective efforts in getting obliterati shitfaced over the weekend. And such is every weekend - I have a virtual party in the diary for Saturday night and a real hangover in the diary for Sunday morning...
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
I did not know that. The things you learn on here. Thank you.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?
Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.
The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.
For one reason or another I am on a couple of area's community help groups which coordinate the response to vulnerable people with local food distribution groups and councillors.
On Saturday night, a message popped up: our neighbours are having people round. To which the answer by the councillor was "call 101".
Job done. Except. Is that really the country we are becoming? Shop your neighbour? Seemed pretty depressing, tbh.
There's a view that those impulses are always there in all countries; extraordinary times beget disappointingly squalid & small minded responses, as well as all the noble stuff.
I presume on twitter it is currently... Boris doesn't look like he was really ill, all just a PR stunt..i know Maureen, she had it and even after a month she can't talk for more than a few words at a time.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.
It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.
We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.
Cyclists are no respecters of rules, judging by the number of red lights they run in Central London
Personally I think we should adopt a shoot on sight policy for red light runners, operating by police marksmen on rooftops.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?
I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.
It's also better funded (in health spend per capita, quick Google by about 30%).
On most measures, the NHS does pretty well per unit spend. I don't have any particular ideological attachment to health service delivery models a long as universal and receipt not tied to ability to pay. There are also some really daft things in NHS organisation, but overall it performs fairly well.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
I presume on twitter it is currently... Boris doesn't look like he was really ill, all just a PR stunt..i know Maureen, she had it and even after a month she can't talk for more than a few words at a time.
Except he did? You could tell he was extremely out of breath during that speech.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
I wonder what the result would be if the country was asked: “Do you want to be unemployed and on Universal Credit for 18 months to 2 years until a vaccine is found?”
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-
1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed? 2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine? 3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living? 4. What happens if no vaccine is found?
At a guess
1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this. 2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative) 3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc 4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.
Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?
5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.
A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.
Definitely no to 3 which is why 2 will happen to avoid 3 being relevant.
On 4 I think it would be far from 5-10 years of economic recession, the getting back to normal was more socially, our tolerance for being in enclosed spaces with strangers etc, the economy may be able to redesign and grow even with the necessary restrictions if we are looking at a 5 year plus time horizon. 4 is also unlikely imo, its the backup path if things dont go well on vaccines and treatments.
These things arent said explicitly by the govt but can be deduced from listening to their detailed statements. So I would say they are heavily spun (out of good intent) and therefore should be listened to with care and caution, rather than seeing them as dishonest (and I am not shy of calling the PM and govt dishonest generally).
Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?
5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.
A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.
I thought Boris's speech was a reasonable summary from his viewpoint - obviously leaves the main questions unanswered and invents an almost non-existent "success" (people like that sort of thing from him). I think most people will give him a week or two back in the job to come to a view before they grumble seriously.
Politically I think he should indeed be downbeat over the next few years - get people's acceptance in advance that it's going to be tough, instead of spinning that it'd all pretty good as is his natural wont.
Amusingly grim header, by the way. I did think it was France from the start, but didn't know about the extent of their crisis.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
I thought polling showed there's still widespread support for lockdown?
What you are seeing is the diversity in outcomes.
Imagine the following -
- Dave and Sarah. Dave is a long standing IT contractor, Sarah is a senior civil servant. Paid off their 4 bed house in London (bought before the prizes zoomed). His job is manic at the moment - works for one of the business that are doing massively more work during lockdown. Their days are spent WFH - evenings are relaxing in their garden and HouseParty with friends. Lockdown is a bore, but they have no money worries, tons of space. Even the pantry is full, thanks to some clever ordering before things got problematic.
- Mike runs a small business. It's shuttered, and he is trying to deal with no cash coming in. Rents a small flat. Spends his days wondering when he will have to actual fire his remaining employees. His elderly mother lives in his second bedroom - should be self isolating. But there is no space for that
It doesn't take much imagination to see who regards the lockdown as a minor thing and who regards it as the end of everything.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
What Singapore do is quarantine aircrew in hotels until they leave to return home.
I presume on twitter it is currently... Boris doesn't look like he was really ill, all just a PR stunt..i know Maureen, she had it and even after a month she can't talk for more than a few words at a time.
Except he did? You could tell he was extremely out of breath during that speech.
Just faking for the cameras.... ;-)
More seriously, Boris better but clearly still not 100%, lets not hope he is coming back too soon.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
I don't understand that. Is it really so difficult not to be an idiot?
Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.
The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.
For one reason or another I am on a couple of area's community help groups which coordinate the response to vulnerable people with local food distribution groups and councillors.
On Saturday night, a message popped up: our neighbours are having people round. To which the answer by the councillor was "call 101".
Job done. Except. Is that really the country we are becoming? Shop your neighbour? Seemed pretty depressing, tbh.
The next phase has to incorporate people resuming social contact - at distance. If you have a garden, easy enough to keep 2m apart and still not have to bellow out your expectorate to be heard.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.
We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.
Cyclists are no respecters of rules, judging by the number of red lights they run in Central London
Personally I think we should adopt a shoot on sight policy for red light runners, operating by police marksmen on rooftops.
Just as people don’t know as much history as they should, they also don’t understand the English language.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Reactionary heating is what the Russian aristocracy used to do: if they were having a ball they would bring in hundreds of peasants to stand motionless in the ballroom all day to warm it up for the evening.
Poor physics. They've have been better off asking them to run around.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Someone should ask him, then, four questions:-
1. If a vaccine is a year or two away, as many have suggested, does this mean the lockdown we are under will continue until then ie schools and very many businesses closed? 2. What happens to the economy in such a case and will the government continue financially supporting businesses and jobs at the same level as now for however long it takes to get a vaccine? 3. If the government won’t do this, what does he think will happen to the people and businesses left with no means to earn a living? 4. What happens if no vaccine is found?
At a guess
1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this. 2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative) 3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc 4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.
Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?
5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.
A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.
As I posted earlier if a vaccine is a long way off we're going to have to treat this thing like my dad's generation did things like Polio - live with it. We can't just switch everything off and hunker down waiting for scientists to come up with a solution.
There are real hardships now - but there is government cash and the prospects for resumption of stuff currently off. If "we have to leave the hospitality sector shut and that means most pubs and restaurants will shut and their staff be dumped onto UC with few prospects of a new job" and "we have to keep your children at home with responsibility for them not ending up like Cleatus on you and you alone" then I can't see people accepting it.
We WILL have to resume. A new social distancing as best we can. Regardless of the virus.
I think the current calculation on lockdown is straightforward and is driven by the balance of risk - the political risk.
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Second spike, bad publicity from higher deaths and second lockdown now exist in the minds of politicians and the commentariat only.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.
It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country
Indeed – sheep outnumber people in NZ and, as for the pubs and restaurants, in most towns, even where they exist, you'd have zero inclination to visit them.
I presume on twitter it is currently... Boris doesn't look like he was really ill, all just a PR stunt..i know Maureen, she had it and even after a month she can't talk for more than a few words at a time.
Except he did? You could tell he was extremely out of breath during that speech.
Just faking for the cameras.... ;-)
More seriously, Boris better but clearly still not 100%, lets not hope he is coming back too soon.
Committed lecturers know that when you're at the blackboard giving an account you kinda go into overdrive.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
And what happens when they reopen the borders or someone from New Zealand travels abroad?
Quarantine on arrival or return. For Singaporeans returning from abroad Singapore puts them up for two weeks in government controlled hotels - free, for those who were already abroad before the Singapore government advised against foreign travel. If you travelled abroad after they advised against foreign travel they make you pay.
In practice, though, that’s not really reopening borders, is it? No work travel to or out of NZ is going to happen. Nor any leisure travel.
And what about imports of goods? Are you going to quarantine pilots who land the planes for a fortnight?
You don't need to. You just quarantine them until they get on another plane.
Is that what happens? Do they stay in hotels for their prescribed rest periods? Hotels staffed by New Zealanders presumably who do not go back to their homes or into the wider community at all?
For the Aer Lingus flights to China to collect PPE the aircrew stayed with the aircraft.
Also, if you have a relatively small number of entry points for the virus (as you do with an island compared to a land border) then it becomes easier to test and monitor those who have contact with the entry points.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
New Zealand has 5 international airports. We have that number in London alone. To compare us to New Zealand is ridiculous.
I know New Zealand especially South Island and it is not to be compared with the UK in any way
I once drove from Christchurch to Queenstown, you can go for miles and miles without seeing another car
I have driven all over South Island on several occasions and you have to experience it to appreciate how sparsely populated it is, and also how wonderful the country is
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
I thought polling showed there's still widespread support for lockdown?
What you are seeing is the diversity in outcomes.
Imagine the following -
- Dave and Sarah. Dave is a long standing IT contractor, Sarah is a senior civil servant. Paid off their 4 bed house in London (bought before the prizes zoomed). His job is manic at the moment - works for one of the business that are doing massively more work during lockdown. Their days are spent WFH - evenings are relaxing in their garden and HouseParty with friends. Lockdown is a bore, but they have no money worries, tons of space. Even the pantry is full, thanks to some clever ordering before things got problematic.
- Mike runs a small business. It's shuttered, and he is trying to deal with no cash coming in. Rents a small flat. Spends his days wondering when he will have to actual fire his remaining employees. His elderly mother lives in his second bedroom - should be self isolating. But there is no space for that
It doesn't take much imagination to see who regards the lockdown as a minor thing and who regards it as the end of everything.
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?
I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.
It's also better funded (in health spend per capita, quick Google by about 30%).
On most measures, the NHS does pretty well per unit spend. I don't have any particular ideological attachment to health service delivery models a long as universal and receipt not tied to ability to pay. There are also some really daft things in NHS organisation, but overall it performs fairly well.
I didn't say it didn't, it just ain't as good as the British public have been brainwashed into believing. There has been a deliberate attempt, and this crisis has furthered it, to equate the NHS with the best people that work in it. My view is that the NHS is a bureaucracy that needs substantial reform, with large parts that serve the provider before the consumer (the patient). I think our medical staff are equal to the best in world, though no better
Our fatality rate is just about the highest in the world. I'd hate to see what the NHS being overwhelmed looks like.
No, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium all have a higher fatality rate than the UK
They are pretty much all ahead of us in terms of the curve. Time will tell. I think it will be difficult for anyone to use that cringeworthy and erroneous phrase "the envy of the world" regarding the NHS in future. Further targeted funding for the NHS without it being slurped up in bigger pensions for doctors and general bureaucracy is looking essential. Our healthcare system is third class when compared with Germany and this crisis has proved it
On what basis are making that statement. Has the German Health Service "cured" more people than NHS?
I have to go into a virtual meeting so don't have time for full answer. The German health system is better than the NHS on just about every measure. It hasn't cured anyone of Covid-19 if that is what you refer, it just has controlled it better and has had significantly fewer deaths.
It's also better funded (in health spend per capita, quick Google by about 30%).
On most measures, the NHS does pretty well per unit spend. I don't have any particular ideological attachment to health service delivery models a long as universal and receipt not tied to ability to pay. There are also some really daft things in NHS organisation, but overall it performs fairly well.
I think it will be very difficult indeed to have an ideology-free conversation about the future of our health and social services, or even ideology-light.
I have no idea how that will be managed.
I have not noticed that removing the management of the NHS to an Executive Agency more than 5 years ago has reduced the political content of the debates around it. It is still the Minister's fault if somebody runs out of Fairy Liquid in a tea room in a hospital in Carlisle.
How the lockdown is being eased in Guernsey: Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
Do you really think that these answers - especially 3 and 4 - would either be said or be politically acceptable?
5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.
A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.
I thought Boris's speech was a reasonable summary from his viewpoint - obviously leaves the main questions unanswered and invents an almost non-existent "success" (people like that sort of thing from him). I think most people will give him a week or two back in the job to come to a view before they grumble seriously.
Politically I think he should indeed be downbeat over the next few years - get people's acceptance in advance that it's going to be tough, instead of spinning that it'd all pretty good as is his natural wont.
Amusingly grim header, by the way. I did think it was France from the start, but didn't know about the extent of their crisis.
Boris' USP is his cheery optimism in the face of adversity. Even naysayers like myself felt a little more jaunty after his speech. It was reassuring, and he held his audience very, very well, so much so that several of his more enthustic PB supporters might have needed private time to reflect on the event with a pack of Kleenex. (For their tears of joy, obviously).
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
But look at the front page of the Daily Mail. Boris is Back to Work. To Save Us All. Huzzah for Boris! Even the Tory press know that the Cabinet are largely a bunch of shysters. I was posting on here yonks back that the Tories needed Johnson as leader as he would cut through party lines and he did. Doesn't matter how crap Raab or Hancock may be or how people are feeling about the increasing horror stories because Boris is Back. With his lovable scarecrow hair and his bumbling delivery of words.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
Realistically it will probably be at least 3-6 months before he's back to how he was before he caught COVID-19
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
I know. It’s an absolute bugger to shake off. That’s kind of the point. He was literally at death’s door three week’s ago.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.
It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
Realistically it will probably be at least 3-6 months before he's back to how he was before he caught COVID-19
When we’re allowed to see family members, I wonder if the definition of “family member” will stretch enough to include “girls from Tinder”.
You are already allowed gatherings of two people under the existing law. Though Chief Constable Copper may get you under "essential".
That is with social distancing though, so you would need your teledildonic equipment. With appropriate interfaces.
You might be permitted to have “gatherings” of two people under the existing law but my understanding is that despite this, you are not allowed to leave your home unless it is for a “permitted reason”.
You can leave your home if you have a 'reasonable excuse'. The section goes on to list examples of things which are reasonable excuses, but the list does not claim to be exhaustive.
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.
It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country
It still has schools right? And offices?
Of course but the population is widespread across the country
New Zealand reckon they've eliminated the virus. I'd been wary of the Jacinda Ardern love-in on the Guardian. But if she has managed that she deserves a lot of praise.
New Zealand is thousands of miles from anywhere, it is even further from Melbourne to Wellington than it is from London to Moscow which shows how isolated it is
I might not be an expert in such matters, but I believe that if someone coughs in Calais the virus doesn't quite make it to Dover.
We have the same advantages as New Zealand but lost the chance to take advantage of them.
With respect you cannot know NZ to make that statement.
It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country
It still has schools right? And offices?
It'll have bars soon. Get prepared for that first picture of an Auckland bar on twitter.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
How was the Spanish flu eventually overcome? I have no idea and, in shocking news to PB, I am not an epidemiologist. But don't these things subside?
@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.
We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.
We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.
Cyclists are no respecters of rules, judging by the number of red lights they run in Central London
Personally I think we should adopt a shoot on sight policy for red light runners, operating by police marksmen on rooftops.
That would indeed be contrarian!
I like the permanent green circles with bicycle signs (meaning cyclists can always go when safe to do so) which I'm seeing more and more of in this city. It's often safest, and causes least inconvenience to other road users, for cyclists to cross when the traffic light is red.
I'm looking forward to some people's heads exploding when they are adopted in London.
I thought Boris's speech was a reasonable summary from his viewpoint - obviously leaves the main questions unanswered and invents an almost non-existent "success".
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
How was the Spanish flu eventually overcome? I have no idea and, in shocking news to PB, I am not an epidemiologist. But don't these things subside?
@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.
We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?
Smoking, AFAIK, isn't infectious.
The economy as we knew it before Covid 19 is ruined - lockdown or no lockdown. Life becomes much easier when you recognise this.
How the lockdown is being eased in Guernsey: Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
After that speech by the prime minister, its clear that the politicians and the media are way, way behind the curve.
Working people don;t give a toss about R, about infection rates and epidemiologists.
Lockdown is smashing their lives to bits economically, mentally and socially, and they have had quite enough of it, whatever the risks ( which for healthy people under fifty are negligible).
Dissenting voices are growing all the time, and the search for who is responsible for this massive policy mistake is starting.
The latest poll put support for your position at 6% and static. I can write until the cows come home about the inaccuracy of opinion polls but there's no mistaking a result like that. The country doesn't agree with you.
Contrarian's position isn't logical, either.
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
The fact that people are returning to work in droves (if indeed they are) suggests that many do not believe your scaremongering and are prepared to accept the 'risks'
I see Deltapoll shows 3 times as many people (63%) saying they worry that lockdown is being eased too quickly than those (21%) who worry that it's being lifted too slowly. Generally quite balanced polls (offices and shops yes with proper safeguards, pubs and stadiums and nightclubs not yet), though the Telegraph is spinning them as increasingly anxious to lift the lockdown.
Indeed. This tallies with my personal experience.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Tobias Ellwood MP on BBC News "There is no exit strategy without a vaccine" - he's right "back to normal" is a long way off. I do with someone would nick Merkel's R0 explanation.
Right now the government seems to be doing a passable impression of King Canute.
They govern by consent. They are losing that consent by the day. By the hour.
On my daily bike ride over the weekend, I stopped at a cyclists' cafe (yes I stood out because I'm the numpty on the Apollo Highway in shorts and a t-shirt when everyone else is clipping themselves in and out of bespoke hand-crafted road weapons).
There are around 12 tables outside and every one of the was full with 3-4 people which were def not family groups unless that sample of households had a lot of young/middle-aged men in them.
Yes the last few weeks have been a cyclists paradise.
We are getting quite a few beginner/lapsed cyclists on the pavement in central London taking advantage of the lower lockdown traffic and footfall. The problem is some are too scared to use the roads but dont have the skills to navigate pedestrian traffic when the path narrows or there are more people around.
Cyclists are no respecters of rules, judging by the number of red lights they run in Central London
I think the percentage stat would be an interesting comparison with drivers who break 20 mph limits.
Just seen the Johnson speech footage. He looks and sounds well below par. I think he’s come back way too soon. That will be bad for him and, by extension, bad for us. He’s not going to have the stamina or concentration to do the job that needs doing.
No, this is what the virus does.
Then he should hand over to someone fit.
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
He may be functioning at 9.00am. He still needs to be at 9.00pm. He was visibly and audibly flagging by the end of that speech. It’s a worry for me.
Boris' role is to be a Reagan like frontman cheering up the nation and setting the direction, like Reagan he can leave implementing the detail to the Cabinet
Comments
If Boris Johnson has not fully recovered from his infection soon then he should stand down as Prime Minister. He was elected as Conservative leader to lead Brexit and fight an election, both of which he has done. The main battle now is against coronavirus and it is hard to see how Boris's capabilities of political intrigue, spin, nuance and demagoguery match up to the skills that are required for this.
To be a threat a new party would have to split the vote in the FPTP constituency part of the election sufficiently for the SNP to lose many of those seats - which would mean the new party would have to be above the threshold for gaining the list seats.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf
And even without that the simple excess death figure gives us a pretty good steer. What is meaningless, in the absence of evidence, is your claim that not locking down would cause less economic damage than locking down has. Show us your workings please.
You don't know what Canute was on about: he wasn't trying to command the tide, he was demonstrating that he couldn't. So, yes, you are accidentally kind of right: the government cannot command a virus.
A heating engineer came round to check our boiler the other day (don’t worry I stood a long way away) and he told me his work was mainly “reactionary”. He meant “reactive”. But the concept of “reactionary work” rather appeals. And I understood what he meant so his novel use of language worked.
Perhaps one to be dobbed in. Black and white case.
The only serious thing I have seen hit the media here, leaving aside the Derbyshire Drone, was a pub lock-in.
Perhaps runners are more introverted than the cyclists (Though plenty in my club do both)
It would have been bad for party unity (although something I wouldn't have put past Boris doing) if he came out and was the good cop to everyone else's bad cop.
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/1254690925495943170?s=20
1 They will only be allowed to operate with social distancing. In practice a reduction in time at school/offices and increase in home learning/working. Schools probably get saved by grants if a solution with 2 years, but yes clearly many businesses will close for good as a result of this.
2. Economy will recover quite a bit from 2020 Q2 but be way behind where it was expected to be or where it was in 2019. So govt support can be lower than 2020 Q2 but will still need to be significant. Guess would be it is at a lower level (maybe 60% rather than 80% and/or 2000 max perhaps) and more targeted (either sectorally and/or requiring case for redundancy as alternative)
3. Businesses that dont have access to cash go bust. People would be unemployed on minimal state benefits, increase in food banks etc
4. We will still eventually revert largely to how we were but it may take 5-10 years instead of 1.5-3.
On Saturday night, a message popped up: our neighbours are having people round. To which the answer by the councillor was "call 101".
Job done. Except. Is that really the country we are becoming? Shop your neighbour? Seemed pretty depressing, tbh.
5 - 10 years of economic recession, depression or slump or a combination of all 3. I cannot see any government offering it or being honest about it. But it is the inevitable consequence of what Elwood and others are saying. There is a dishonesty - a lack of candour - about what the implications of all these statements are.
A pity journalists are not following up with questioning about what this actually means.
That is with social distancing though, so you would need your teledildonic equipment. With appropriate interfaces.
It has only Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as main cities and as for the rest, it is all mountains, sheep and safe distancing is far from a problem, virtually throughout the country
We face a deep recession and ruined public finances regardless. And there is much the government can do to mitigate this by way of fiscal and monetary measures. They are all bad options but there are plenty of them.
However if we get a nasty second wave of disease which leaves us clearly the worst country in Europe for Covid-19 deaths, there will be no hiding place from that for Johnson and his administration.
Therefore the approach will be to keep the lockdown in place until the virus is demonstrably squashed down to a steady state which is miles below NHS capacity.
We are quite a way from this point.
Personally I think we should adopt a shoot on sight policy for red light runners, operating by police marksmen on rooftops.
On most measures, the NHS does pretty well per unit spend. I don't have any particular ideological attachment to health service delivery models a long as universal and receipt not tied to ability to pay. There are also some really daft things in NHS organisation, but overall it performs fairly well.
On 4 I think it would be far from 5-10 years of economic recession, the getting back to normal was more socially, our tolerance for being in enclosed spaces with strangers etc, the economy may be able to redesign and grow even with the necessary restrictions if we are looking at a 5 year plus time horizon. 4 is also unlikely imo, its the backup path if things dont go well on vaccines and treatments.
These things arent said explicitly by the govt but can be deduced from listening to their detailed statements. So I would say they are heavily spun (out of good intent) and therefore should be listened to with care and caution, rather than seeing them as dishonest (and I am not shy of calling the PM and govt dishonest generally).
Politically I think he should indeed be downbeat over the next few years - get people's acceptance in advance that it's going to be tough, instead of spinning that it'd all pretty good as is his natural wont.
Amusingly grim header, by the way. I did think it was France from the start, but didn't know about the extent of their crisis.
Imagine the following -
- Dave and Sarah. Dave is a long standing IT contractor, Sarah is a senior civil servant. Paid off their 4 bed house in London (bought before the prizes zoomed). His job is manic at the moment - works for one of the business that are doing massively more work during lockdown. Their days are spent WFH - evenings are relaxing in their garden and HouseParty with friends. Lockdown is a bore, but they have no money worries, tons of space. Even the pantry is full, thanks to some clever ordering before things got problematic.
- Mike runs a small business. It's shuttered, and he is trying to deal with no cash coming in. Rents a small flat. Spends his days wondering when he will have to actual fire his remaining employees. His elderly mother lives in his second bedroom - should be self isolating. But there is no space for that
It doesn't take much imagination to see who regards the lockdown as a minor thing and who regards it as the end of everything.
More seriously, Boris better but clearly still not 100%, lets not hope he is coming back too soon.
There are real hardships now - but there is government cash and the prospects for resumption of stuff currently off. If "we have to leave the hospitality sector shut and that means most pubs and restaurants will shut and their staff be dumped onto UC with few prospects of a new job" and "we have to keep your children at home with responsibility for them not ending up like Cleatus on you and you alone" then I can't see people accepting it.
We WILL have to resume. A new social distancing as best we can. Regardless of the virus.
With millions observed to be going back to work, its clear that a large section of the public have no confidence in the government strategy, will shrug their shoulders at a second spike and will not countenance a second lockdown.
We have given up everything for the NHS to build its capacity. This has probably cost some very ill people without Coronavirus their lives because the NHS stopped treating many conditions.
The NHS should now be able to cope.
Also, if you have a relatively small number of entry points for the virus (as you do with an island compared to a land border) then it becomes easier to test and monitor those who have contact with the entry points.
I have no idea how that will be managed.
I have not noticed that removing the management of the NHS to an Executive Agency more than 5 years ago has reduced the political content of the debates around it. It is still the Minister's fault if somebody runs out of Fairy Liquid in a tea room in a hospital in Carlisle.
Estate agents, tradesmen, builders, and mechanics all became part of the vanguard for the island’s economic resurgence after exactly one month of lockdown.
Office premises can now open, but only with a maximum of five workers per office and only when working from home is not possible.
Building supplies and hardware stores are allowed to open, but on Saturday most of them remained shut as they figured out how to abide with the social distancing and hygiene rules....
..Guernsey has won plaudits for the way it has handled this crisis.
A combination of one of the highest per capita testing rates in Europe, extensive contact-tracing and quarantining, means that Guernsey has not just flattened the curve, it is on the other side of the curve.
The core message is still stay at home and the authorities remain in a high state of vigilance because of the fear of a new outbreak and a second peak.
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/04/27/island-takes-first-back-to-work-steps-but-far-from-business-as-usual/
High infection and death rates and the resultant fear will smash people's lives to bits more than.
I have one in my extended family. She's also a conspiracy theorist nut and has blocked me on facebook for continually correcting her fake news posts.
It remains the number of over 70s and over 80s in a country which is most closely linked to the death rate
https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
My concern for the past few weeks is that now, just when we need a government functioning at 100%, we have been missing a prime minister. 90% of the people on here thought I was being crazy - why on earth would we need a fully fit PM when we are going through one of the worst crises of our lifetimes, but I digress.
I was happy to see him back and am sure that his mental capacity remains as per the status quo ante (ie solipsistic shit, but fully functioning).
If it is not, then he should step down.
@contrarian's position is absolutely logical. We must live with the risk.
We can't just go on "health advice from the experts". What do you suppose "health advice from the experts" would say about smoking?
I'm looking forward to some people's heads exploding when they are adopted in London.
Success = 21,000 people dead apparently.
The economy as we knew it before Covid 19 is ruined - lockdown or no lockdown. Life becomes much easier when you recognise this.
In my extended network, only one or two (coincidentally with school age children and jobs in financial services) are really concerned to lift the lockdown.
I think I'm a similar age to @MaxPB - none of my uni mates seem like they want to go to the pub. More of our whatsapp chat is about the worry that the lockdown will be lifted too soon.
(For the record I use both modes)