Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting for Biden’s VP pick is getting tighter

1246789

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Jonathan said:

    Who care about Australia or Israel. We’re talking about England and how see ourselves. We are more than the chocolate box.
    There is nothing wrong with living in a chocolate box, chocolate boxes are nice, better than a crime ridden, poverty stricken hell hole.

    Since the end of the British Empire we have not been a superpower so being a chocolate box with good art, culture, heritage and some science and finance is no bad thing
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841

    "that's why London is such a draw and you don't see many foreign tourists wandering round the Highlands"

    You'd be surprised, Nick. During Summer the roads up here are crawling with European registered cars, esp German and Scandinavian. Also a surprising number of people from the Far East - who are not very adept with single track roads and reversing into passing places!
    First law of tourism is that wherever and whenever you go, you will always come across a Dutch car, if not a Dutch campervan. I always assumed their country was so low and densely populated that a good proportion of them had to be away at all times. Which makes me wonder how they are coping now with everyone suddenly at home.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    edited April 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Most on here inhabit the M25 ring and so have absolutely not a clue on anything about Scotland. They think we are all unemployed , drinking Buckfast and running about in kilts eating fried Mars Bars.
    I don't think thats true actually malc. I can think of posters from Scotland (quite a few), Wales, Devon, Dorset, the Midlands, the North East - and only a handful from London.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    So with Trump there's always a "low cunning" explanation and a "confused old man has no idea what's going on" explanation, and you can never be entirely sure which one is right. The low cunning explanation is that there are millions of voters who believe in lunatic medical pseudo-science, and they care much more about this issue than the voters who believe in normal medicine, most of whom will just roll their eyes and move onto his next distraction.
    I have a different view of him. Yes, it's often fucking hilarious - this latest one is David Brent on steroids - but in fact it isn't funny at all. He is 100% about narcissism and it is narcissism of a deeply malevolent kind. He stands there chatting utter shit purely because he knows he can and he gets off on it. When he muses about injecting disinfectant maybe "kills the virus in a minute" and turns to his flunky and says "I understand you haven't tested that yet but it's interesting right?" he is mocking and humiliating her. He knows she is too afraid to reply truthfully along the lines of "Oh shut the fuck up you ridiculous little man". Just has to grin and bear it. Cos he's the head honcho. He is talking the piss out of an entire nation - and beyond - and is enjoying every minute of it. A warped and evil troll feeding his monstrous ego at our expense. Guy is vermin. That he loses in November is, to me, as important as winning the fight against Covid-19.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    MattW said:

    Isn't that about a 10% sample of the countries the Gnats have compared Scotland to for what their future is going to be like, when they escape and return to status quo 1700 or 1300?
    Usual sneering crap from our resident EDL knuckle dragger.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    malcolmg said:

    Givenonly Tories or Labour are ever going to govern the UK , my answer was qualified. When we get independence I will have same thinking around any Scottish party likely to govern Scotland. They do not take long to get self absorbed and only interested in their own selves / pockets.
    If you get independence, you voted against in 2014
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Jonathan said:

    The ww2 our finest hour mythology, whilst important, has cast a shadow over how we are governed and where we want to go as a country. It limits us.
    Perhaps, but I think to say its killing us is a bit much. Post war government being part of our finest hour is also part of the myth, and looking back not forwards.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,608
    edited April 2020

    Of course it has, but the research in question has never been contradicted. The rise of antibiotics meant research into hydrogen peroxide all but ceased. Which is fine, only in the current situation, with a rapidly spreading pandemic, a simpler 'all purpose' pathogen killer is actually what you need, because research into a silver bullet doesn't fit the time lines we are dealing with. Hence comments about 'injecting disinfectant', whichever mental recesses they come from, are interesting.
    No Mr LuckyGuy Trump's allusion yesterday was dangerously indefensible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    eristdoof said:

    "May" be at 25%.
    For sure.

    The biggest difference with the Swedish attitude is that they still seem to be seeing herd immunity as the likely end point, whereas everyone else has circled the wagons and is waiting for various sorts of cavalry.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,069
    Mortimer said:

    To be frank, I think this is an accusation that the small-ell left often make against Britain. It is the trope behind the 'its all about passports' and 'you can't stop talking about the empire'. The past is simply another stick that the left use to beat the country with. And interestingly, the only successful Labour leaders recognise this - Blair was a perfect example.

    I've don't see it play out in reality.

    And my degree is in history....
    Have you lived in another country? I have lived in Australia and in Germany, and have had many political disussions from all around the world. You quickly get to learn that Briatin is not the only country and that the way of doing things in Britain is often rooted in the past.

    I Briatain there is a strong feeling of "But that's not how we do things in Britain" and "Theres no way that would work over here", and I see this attitude from the pubs up to Downing Street. To some extent, most countries do not take into consideration enough how things are done in ther countries, but in Britain this is actively ignored.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    HYUFD said:

    Without mass testing and tracing there is little chance of getting out of lockdown before a vaccince is found
    Which is being put in place - a lot of restrictions could be lifted much sooner than expected.

    Perhaps summer isn't a write off.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,166

    Of course it has, but the research in question has never been contradicted. The rise of antibiotics meant research into hydrogen peroxide all but ceased. Which is fine, only in the current situation, with a rapidly spreading pandemic, a simpler 'all purpose' pathogen killer is actually what you need, because research into a silver bullet doesn't fit the time lines we are dealing with. Hence comments about 'injecting disinfectant', whichever mental recesses they come from, are interesting.
    If h2o2 was effective against a virus like influenza, why would the rise in antibiotics stop further research?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    Yet it has been shown to work...
    Well I am even more confused now. I can understand your reply to Nigel, but what has this to do with my post?

    I'm completely lost unless you are saying the evidence is it works. But that was my argument. You disagreed with me!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    HYUFD said:

    There is nothing wrong with living in a chocolate box, chocolate boxes are nice, better than a crime ridden, poverty stricken hell hole.

    Since the end of the British Empire we have not been a superpower so being a chocolate box with good art, culture, heritage and some science and finance is no bad thing
    Not much cop if it rains , your chocolate box would disintegrate. Next you will be telling us the poor should eat cake.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    eristdoof said:

    Have you lived in another country? I have lived in Australia and in Germany, and have had many political disussions from all around the world. You quickly get to learn that Briatin is not the only country and that the way of doing things in Britain is often rooted in the past.

    I Briatain there is a strong feeling of "But that's not how we do things in Britain" and "Theres no way that would work over here", and I see this attitude from the pubs up to Downing Street. To some extent, most countries do not take into consideration enough how things are done in ther countries, but in Britain this is actively ignored.
    You should try serving on a British local council. How things might be done in the next town or village is often seen as both irrelevant and potentially the work of the devil.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    TGOHF666 said:

    Which is being put in place - a lot of restrictions could be lifted much sooner than expected.

    Perhaps summer isn't a write off.
    2021 maybe given the incompetence of the Tories.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    malcolmg said:

    Most on here inhabit the M25 ring .
    Better than inhabiting the First Minister's ring like our resident Nats.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,978
    I have no idea as to.the efficacy of Trumps idea but it shoupd not be dismissed just because it came from Trump. Its not as tho we are talking about taking gulps of concentrated bleach....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited April 2020
    HYUFD said:

    There is nothing wrong with living in a chocolate box, chocolate boxes are nice, better than a crime ridden, poverty stricken hell hole.

    Since the end of the British Empire we have not been a superpower so being a chocolate box with good art, culture, heritage and some science and finance is no bad thing
    I was under the impression that your hero was appealing to voters at the last GE who believed that they very definitely didn't live in a chocolate box.
  • Nigelb said:

    That's interesting; thanks.
    I hadn't read up on anything to do with fusion in the last decade.

    It still sounds a messy business, compared to (say) solar power, but a successful system would have obvious advantages.
    My PhD was on magnetic confinement of plasmas in spherical tokamaks (aka spheromaks) :-) It was a while ago now, but as far as I can see, sustained fusion remains a pretty much unsolved problem. The economic arguments in favour of pursuing it become ever more tenuous as solar power becomes cheaper.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Barnesian said:

    Some people live in the past (nostalgia).
    Some live in the present (mindfulness or simple survival).
    Some live in the future (planning and anticipation).

    So it is with countries. UK in the past. Africa in the present. China in the future.
    Dont the chinese authorities make a big deal of the greatness and long history of Chinese culture and civilisation? I think a sweeping statement like yours is very unlikely to be correct.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    edited April 2020

    Of course it has, but the research in question has never been contradicted. The rise of antibiotics meant research into hydrogen peroxide all but ceased. Which is fine, only in the current situation, with a rapidly spreading pandemic, a simpler 'all purpose' pathogen killer is actually what you need, because research into a silver bullet doesn't fit the time lines we are dealing with. Hence comments about 'injecting disinfectant', whichever mental recesses they come from, are interesting.
    Trump's comments on chloroquinine were no less "interesting" - sadly they "interested" that guy in Arizona who died after drinking fish tank cleaner and a whole host of folks in Nigeria who overdosed on their malaria pills, some fatally, rather too much.

    With a platform comes responsibility.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    It seems an obvious step but I wonder whether - like with the masks encouraging people to feel safe and ignore all the other physical distancing/hygiene advice - they are worried about the social behaviour consequentials.

    If the British public knew that a positive Covid-19 test would see them quarantined for two weeks, even more socially isolated than they are now, they might suddenly become a lot less interested in being tested for the virus.
    I don't think you need quarantine to be compulsory, just make it the recommended thing to do, and don't charge.

    Most people don't want to expose their families or flatmates to coronavirus.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151
    IanB2 said:

    And, conversely, there is still going out and interaction in those countries that have imposed apparently fierce lockdowns. The gap between policy and reaction is different in different countries. Perhaps the outcomes aren't that different (certainly the medical data so far suggests as much) and different governments are simply wise enough to know how far they have to go to prompt their citizens to change behaviour?
    Yes - and likely that climbing deaths and infections influence behaviour - even if no enforced lock down, if you start to know personally - even at a few removes - of people infected then I think you'll be very inclined to social distance. So maybe Sweden really is tipping over, but at a later point and with faster growth to that point than countries that locked down forcefully at an earlier point. Working through the pros and cons of that and the economics (and wellbeing/incidence of death and morbidity from other causes going forwards) will be a big job

    There will be some fascinating studies on this in the next few years. That kind of epidemiology is my field, not the predicting infections bit, but looking at what explains differences after the event to learn for the future. Not likely that I'll do any of it, except maybe at one remove as PhD supervisor, got other projects for the next couple of years and there will be no shortage of people looking at this kind of thing (though I may try and do something on effects in the particular population I study)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    IanB2 said:

    For sure.

    The biggest difference with the Swedish attitude is that they still seem to be seeing herd immunity as the likely end point, whereas everyone else has circled the wagons and is waiting for various sorts of cavalry.
    To be fair, most European nations have said that unless a vaccine, this is the only other way out and the ultimate outcome, but they are placing a kot of faith in if they can keep kicking the ball down the field something will come up before we reach "herd immunity".

    From the Newsnight, although sweden top egg head didn't say it, he implied it, that he doesn't think anything is coming anytime soon, with his comment come back in a year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    kle4 said:

    Dont the chinese authorities make a big deal of the greatness and long history of Chinese culture and civilisation? I think a sweeping statement like yours is very unlikely to be correct.
    Yes. Krastev and Holmes is interesting in this regard. They argue that the Chinese have a longheld historical world view of greater China as a civilization in itself, with the rest of the world being "other" (hence all the Chinatowns wherever they settle), and that this worldview remains relevant to China's actions and policy today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455

    I don't know what motivated his comments, and I haven't watched them - I hate cringey moments.

    However, it must be said that injecting a disinfectant, in this case hydrogen peroxide, has been written up in the Lancet and actually shown remarkable results for a similar condition!
    Trumps words are best understood when this young woman lipsynchs them. Remember, this is the President:

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189?s=19
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    I am afraid that I just do not believe that rape gangs are the inevitable consequence of recognsiing and celebrating cultural diversity, which is what I regard as multiculturalism.
    Exactly. Cultural diversity within the law. This prohibits things like murder and rape and insider trading. Law to be applied without fear or favour.
  • I have no idea as to.the efficacy of Trumps idea but it shoupd not be dismissed just because it came from Trump. Its not as tho we are talking about taking gulps of concentrated bleach....

    Well if you take it in small enough doses no poison will harm you but you can be sure there are fuckwits out there who will hear the words of GOB [the Great Orange Berk] and swig it down like whiskey.

    He's a menace as well as an embarrassment.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    edited April 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Most on here inhabit the M25 ring and so have absolutely not a clue on anything about Scotland. They think we are all unemployed , drinking Buckfast and running about in kilts eating fried Mars Bars.
    That's your oppression/grievance fantasy talking that speaks more to your prejudices about London than anyone elses prejudices about Scotland. Very few people on here, given the amount of anti-London prejudice bandied about, live within the M25 anyway. And I am not sure what inhabiting "the M25 ring" means. Is this supposed entity a ring of towns including Dartford, Redhill, Sevenoaks and Watford?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841

    To be fair, most European nations have said that unless a vaccine, this is the only other way out and the ultimate outcome, but they are placing a kot of faith in if they can keep kicking the ball down the field something will come up before we reach "herd immunity".

    From the Newsnight, although sweden top egg head didn't say it, he implied it, that he doesn't think anything is coming anytime soon, with his comment come back in a year.
    Which is what I thought I had just said.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,005
    And 538 has Trump's popularity going from minus 4.3% to minus 9.2% since the start of April.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    HYUFD said:

    As China planned so well to avoid Covid
    Look at China's strategic approach (Belt and Road initiative, investment in Africa etc) and contrast that with UK approach (fine words plus make it up as you go along).

    Which countries are in relative ascendency and which are in relative decline? And why is that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    eristdoof said:

    Have you lived in another country? I have lived in Australia and in Germany, and have had many political disussions from all around the world. You quickly get to learn that Briatin is not the only country and that the way of doing things in Britain is often rooted in the past.

    I Briatain there is a strong feeling of "But that's not how we do things in Britain" and "Theres no way that would work over here", and I see this attitude from the pubs up to Downing Street. To some extent, most countries do not take into consideration enough how things are done in ther countries, but in Britain this is actively ignored.
    What's wrong with being rooted in the past?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    I have no idea as to.the efficacy of Trumps idea but it shoupd not be dismissed just because it came from Trump. Its not as tho we are talking about taking gulps of concentrated bleach....

    First 4 words were sufficient.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited April 2020
    Barnesian said:

    Look at China's strategic approach (Belt and Road initiative, investment in Africa etc) and contrast that with UK approach (fine words plus make it up as you go along).

    Which countries are in relative ascendency and which are in relative decline? And why is that?
    I'm really not sure that anyone can yet claim results for the Chinese approach, since they have only slightly lifted the provincial lockdown and we do not yet know what will happen to the other 1.3 billion (or however many) people.

    I think the UK has been making significant investment just in Foreign Aid - 100bn over 7 years or so? In Europe only Germany comes close in cash terms. Perhaps we need to seriously rethink attaching strings.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    HYUFD said:

    There is nothing wrong with living in a chocolate box, chocolate boxes are nice, better than a crime ridden, poverty stricken hell hole.

    Since the end of the British Empire we have not been a superpower so being a chocolate box with good art, culture, heritage and some science
    and finance is no bad thing
    I didn’t realise the Eloi emerged due to a deliberate political choice. Wells was right.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,310
    Mr. Barnesian, China has no cultural baggage/white middle class guilt when it comes to Africa, and its non-democratic government means that strategic planning can work better (neither changing parties nor high court challenges get in the way).

    Of course, if we had a media that scrutinised policies more than personalities rather than the other way around, that'd help too.

    The biggest shift is simply due to China et al. getting richer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    edited April 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Most on here inhabit the M25 ring and so have absolutely not a clue on anything about Scotland. They think we are all unemployed , drinking Buckfast and running about in kilts eating fried Mars Bars.
    I thought you were all high on Irn Bru and looking for a fight? Or an argument.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    To be fair, most European nations have said that unless a vaccine, this is the only other way out and the ultimate outcome, but they are placing a kot of faith in if they can keep kicking the ball down the field something will come up before we reach "herd immunity".

    From the Newsnight, although sweden top egg head didn't say it, he implied it, that he doesn't think anything is coming anytime soon, with his comment come back in a year.
    yeah, this is basically the sort of summary you'd hope the press, educating and informing as they do (!) would come up with. For a number of reasons, the Swedish politicians and supporting scientists think they can take a bigger 'hit' now, without overworking their health service and without breaking their society.

    The two words you *need* to add in any discussion of the situation remain "so far"

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    kle4 said:

    Dont the chinese authorities make a big deal of the greatness and long history of Chinese culture and civilisation? I think a sweeping statement like yours is very unlikely to be correct.
    It's a provocative generalisation.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.

    I wish people would stop repeating this bollocks, there's herd immunity or suppression. Argue that suppression is impractical if you like, or that the costs are higher than the benefits, but stop pretending it's not a thing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Trump should put his money where his mouth is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    Selebian said:

    Yes - and likely that climbing deaths and infections influence behaviour - even if no enforced lock down, if you start to know personally - even at a few removes - of people infected then I think you'll be very inclined to social distance. So maybe Sweden really is tipping over, but at a later point and with faster growth to that point than countries that locked down forcefully at an earlier point. Working through the pros and cons of that and the economics (and wellbeing/incidence of death and morbidity from other causes going forwards) will be a big job

    There will be some fascinating studies on this in the next few years. That kind of epidemiology is my field, not the predicting infections bit, but looking at what explains differences after the event to learn for the future. Not likely that I'll do any of it, except maybe at one remove as PhD supervisor, got other projects for the next couple of years and there will be no shortage of people looking at this kind of thing (though I may try and do something on effects in the particular population I study)
    There was a guy on Radio 4 early this morning arguing/hoping that the Government had behavioural scientists within their battery of experts (of course he had an axe being one himself). But he had good points to make.

    The French and Spanish had to be told. The Swedish could take a hint. The Brits needed to see their PM get ill himself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    Barnesian said:

    It's a provocative generalisation.
    Generalisations are always crap.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151
    Alistair said:

    Cherry picked as in the 3 countries it borders?
    And Iceland! And Estonia, which has a pretty different history.

    International comparisons are difficult, things that might matter in addition to how well the country is handing things:
    - Lived density
    - Working patterns (what % work, what % in offices)
    - Transport patterns (public transport v car and walk)
    - Ties to countries with early outbreaks (how many people brought the infections in early)
    - Normal behviour (how kissy/huggy they are - possibly? How much people go to the pub rather than sitting at home)
    - Age/health profile
    - Genetics
    - Climate (not necessarily for direct effect on virus but for effects on behaviours and transport choices)

    Now, some of those are similar in the compared countries (I expect) but maybe not the lived density, transport patterns or ties to countries with early outbreaks. The nearest comparator to Sweden may not be in that list.

    Note, I think lockdown here was the right thing to do with the information available, but I'm open to the possibility that with hindsight, when all the facts are known, a full lockdown may well not be the optimal course (the optimal course being the early introduction of the least economically damaging measures that get reproduction down to 1 or below)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    @kjh

    There is never an excuse for rudeness - so for that I apologise unreservedly.

    I felt strongly that at the heart of your post there was a very obvious contradiction, and I chose to put it down sarcastically to muddled thinking.

    You are quite right that vast numbers live in small states within the EU, and we see the outworkings of that in the sad situation of Greece. To identify that as a desirable future and in the same breath speak of 'maximum devolution' or whatever the phrase you used was, I felt stretched credibility beyond breaking point.

    What I now realise more fully, is that you didn't actually mean 'maximum devolution' in the sense of maximum autonomy being returned to your units of statehood, but of the EU being the sovereign state, with a comparatively 'generous' degree of devolution being bestowed on its component statelets. Those are very different concepts, hence the confusion.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alistair said:

    Continuing the sweden obsession.

    Sweden doesn't have corona virus. Stockholm does.

    The county Skåno, which contains Malmo, has a population of 1.2 million people and has had 57 deaths.

    Stockholm County has a population of 2.3 million and 1128 deaths.

    2 times the population but 20 times the deaths. Same for the rest of Sweden, basically negligible covid deaths outside of Stockholm.

    Stockholm only has 40% of the cases though?

    Or are some of the other places in this list part of Stockholm?


    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103949/number-of-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-in-sweden-by-region/
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just to reiterate that Sweden is basically unaffected by Coronavirus.

    Stockholm is fucked though. It is on its way to New York level deaths.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    IanB2 said:

    I thought you were all high on Irn Bru and looking for a fight? Or an argument.
    D'ye mean old or new recipe Irn Bru? We could easily have an argument about that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    I am shocked to hear that all the home testing kits have been snapped up in a few minutes. I think we all said that would occur, as every hypercondric in the country bashes refresh on their browser.

    It is why we need an automated prioritization system across the whole testing operation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    Trumps words are best understood when this young woman lipsynchs them. Remember, this is the President:

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189?s=19
    This stuff is great - but the risk is he just becomes more and more embedded as a kind of incredibly amusing popular culture icon. You know, a Guilty Pleasure.

    I would rather he was not covered by the media and ignored by everyone else.

    In fact, new approach from yours truly. No further comments on Donald Trump except for my periodic reminder - to assist with people's betting - that he will lose in November and it will not be close.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    kinabalu said:

    I have a different view of him. Yes, it's often fucking hilarious - this latest one is David Brent on steroids - but in fact it isn't funny at all. He is 100% about narcissism and it is narcissism of a deeply malevolent kind. He stands there chatting utter shit purely because he knows he can and he gets off on it. When he muses about injecting disinfectant maybe "kills the virus in a minute" and turns to his flunky and says "I understand you haven't tested that yet but it's interesting right?" he is mocking and humiliating her. He knows she is too afraid to reply truthfully along the lines of "Oh shut the fuck up you ridiculous little man". Just has to grin and bear it. Cos he's the head honcho. He is talking the piss out of an entire nation - and beyond - and is enjoying every minute of it. A warped and evil troll feeding his monstrous ego at our expense. Guy is vermin. That he loses in November is, to me, as important as winning the fight against Covid-19.
    Again, Krastev and Holmes have an interesting take on Trump (their book is highly recommended). They argue that the dishonesty and absurdity of Trump's stances are actually the point - that he's communicating to his base his power, by being able to get away with it, his worldview, by taking on these establishment enemies, and his willingness to deploy every tactic to win the argument. They draw a parallel with Putin and his rigged elections; Russians all know they are rigged, and the point of having them is to rub it in that Putin is able to depart from what many would see as normal standards of behaviour, yet retain his power.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I think that is very astute and very important. I am entirely opposed to a world view that dicatates we accept every aspect of every culture as being of equal worth. Clearly that is not the case. There are certain core values that are non-negotiable. But that does not preclude the acceptance and celebraiton of difference. And that, for me, is what multiculturalism is.

    The politicians who promoted multiculturalism as an idea in the 60s, Roy Jenkins, Lord Lester for instance, were horrified by what it led to. They thought it was Little m and regretted that people took it to be capital M
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    kjh said:

    Well I am even more confused now. I can understand your reply to Nigel, but what has this to do with my post?

    I'm completely lost unless you are saying the evidence is it works. But that was my argument. You disagreed with me!
    I planned to respond, decided to respond to his first, but my browser saved a draft of my quote - does it all the time, very annoying.

    I have responded to you downthread.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    isam said:

    The politicians who promoted multiculturalism as an idea in the 60s, Roy Jenkins, Lord Lester for instance, were horrified by what it led to. They thought it was Little m and regretted that people took it to be capital M
    The little m involves using common sense and judgement.

    The Blockführer types find both dangerous and worrying. So they try and invent rigid rules to make themselves feel safe and virtuous. The results is the big M.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    Stockholm only has 40% of the cases though?

    Or are some of the other places in this list part of Stockholm?


    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103949/number-of-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-in-sweden-by-region/
    Cases are more spread out but deaths are concentrated in Stockholm.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Of course it has, but the research in question has never been contradicted. The rise of antibiotics meant research into hydrogen peroxide all but ceased. Which is fine, only in the current situation, with a rapidly spreading pandemic, a simpler 'all purpose' pathogen killer is actually what you need, because research into a silver bullet doesn't fit the time lines we are dealing with. Hence comments about 'injecting disinfectant', whichever mental recesses they come from, are interesting.
    Which phase of the moon do you think is best to inject disinfectant under?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021

    No its not. Its 5, 6 times worse than some cherrypicked neighbours but compare to other neighbours like the Netherlands or Belgium and a different picture emerges. Sweden is physically closer to the Netherlands (not on the graph) than it is to the tiny island of Iceland (which is on the graph).
    They are not cherry-picked neighbours - Sweden is a Scandinavian country and is therefore usually grouped with the other Scandinavian countries because of the similarities between them. Saying it is more logical to compare them with Belgium is grasping at straws simply because it fits your agenda better.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    malcolmg said:

    Not much cop if it rains , your chocolate box would disintegrate. Next you will be telling us the poor should eat cake.
    This is exactly what the VAT system would suggest, where cakes are exempt from VAT - being a necessity for ye olde traditional English tea - but biscuits are charged full whack - being the staple of dunking in a working class cuppa.

    If this discrepancy made its way into a 2019 election video I sadly missed it, but I would have thought it would have been right up Johnson's [terraced] street in his pre-Coronavirus period.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    Foxy said:

    Trumps words are best understood when this young woman lipsynchs them. Remember, this is the President:

    https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189?s=19
    Very entertaining, but as our resident doc, I would expect you to engage with the science, rather than echoing the herd.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    I wish people would stop repeating this bollocks, there's herd immunity or suppression. Argue that suppression is impractical if you like, or that the costs are higher than the benefits, but stop pretending it's not a thing.
    Hi Edmund, just for you

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.


    Suppression is a supporting strategy. It is not a way out.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    malcolmg said:

    Most on here inhabit the M25 ring and so have absolutely not a clue on anything about Scotland. They think we are all unemployed , drinking Buckfast and running about in kilts eating fried Mars Bars.
    I thought you were all high on Irn Bru and looking for a fight? Or an argument.
    IanB2 said:

    That's a Scottish observation about Scottish people, not an English one.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    Hi Edmund, just for you

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.


    Suppression is a supporting strategy. It is not a way out.
    What do you think happened in Taiwan?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841

    This is exactly what the VAT system would suggest, where cakes are exempt from VAT - being a necessity for ye olde traditional English tea - but biscuits are charged full whack - being the staple of dunking in a working class cuppa.

    If this discrepancy made its way into a 2019 election video I sadly missed it, but I would have thought it would have been right up Johnson's [terraced] street in his pre-Coronavirus period.
    Broth is the new cake. Do keep up.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    What do you think happened in Taiwan?
    So far.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,151

    Very entertaining, but as our resident doc, I would expect you to engage with the science, rather than echoing the herd.
    What science?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alistair said:

    Just to reiterate that Sweden is basically unaffected by Coronavirus.

    Stockholm is fucked though. It is on its way to New York level deaths.

    Especially worrying if you’re over 70


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Barnesian said:

    Look at China's strategic approach (Belt and Road initiative, investment in Africa etc) and contrast that with UK approach (fine words plus make it up as you go along).

    Which countries are in relative ascendency and which are in relative decline? And why is that?
    China has a population over 10 times ours, since we gave up the British Empire obviously we are not going to be able to challenge China economically.

  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Oh wait, Edmund removed that line of the original post to make a point that he didn't need to make. Excellent. Well done.

    In that case, I will repeat the basic truth of our situation again.

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,166

    I wish people would stop repeating this bollocks, there's herd immunity or suppression. Argue that suppression is impractical if you like, or that the costs are higher than the benefits, but stop pretending it's not a thing.
    We haven't even tried a tracking app yet in Europe, so not very wise to give up on containment
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    HYUFD said:

    China has a population over 10 times ours, since we gave up the British Empire obviously we are not going to be able to challenge China economically.

    Gdp per capita maybe but not gdp
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,700

    Oh wait, Edmund removed that line of the original post to make a point that he didn't need to make. Excellent. Well done.

    In that case, I will repeat the basic truth of our situation again.

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.

    Is "hard immunity" different to "herd immunity"? or is it only for cocks?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Oh wait, Edmund removed that line of the original post to make a point that he didn't need to make. Excellent. Well done.

    In that case, I will repeat the basic truth of our situation again.

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.

    You keep saying hard immunity. It is herd immunity.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    Oh wait, Edmund removed that line of the original post to make a point that he didn't need to make. Excellent. Well done.

    In that case, I will repeat the basic truth of our situation again.

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.

    You would be more persuasive if, instead of endlessly repeating it, you made some kind of actual argument for it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    kamski said:

    If h2o2 was effective against a virus like influenza, why would the rise in antibiotics stop further research?
    Because they were more exciting, more targeted, offered to eliminate specific diseases, and were more commercially promising?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Again, Krastev and Holmes have an interesting take on Trump (their book is highly recommended). They argue that the dishonesty and absurdity of Trump's stances are actually the point - that he's communicating to his base his power, by being able to get away with it, his worldview, by taking on these establishment enemies, and his willingness to deploy every tactic to win the argument. They draw a parallel with Putin and his rigged elections; Russians all know they are rigged, and the point of having them is to rub it in that Putin is able to depart from what many would see as normal standards of behaviour, yet retain his power.
    Haven't read their book but that is my sense too. There is much of that going on. Applies to the blatant lying. No attempt to hide it. Quite the opposite. It's a wanton display of power - winding up opponents for the amused gratification of supporters.

    Oh shit, my "no more Trump comments" resolution lasted all of 15 minutes.

    Stop it, Ian. Your fault.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    OllyT said:

    They are not cherry-picked neighbours - Sweden is a Scandinavian country and is therefore usually grouped with the other Scandinavian countries because of the similarities between them. Saying it is more logical to compare them with Belgium is grasping at straws simply because it fits your agenda better.
    Sweden ex Stockholm can be safely compared to it's Nordic neighbours.

    Stockholm and Copenhagen are similiar.
    Oslo, Reykjavik and Talinn are more spread out cities.

    So how does Stockholm compare to Copenhagen ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    Tartans in Scotland?
    Gaelic in 75% of Scotland (by population, not area). Despite the nonsense on our police cars and ambulances now.
  • Trump said what last night?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507


    Yet it has been shown to work...
    JFC. A single case study (not even a proper case-control study) in /1920/ does not count as "has been shown to work". You are spreading dangerous pseudo-science that can easily kill. Please just stop.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    malcolmg said:

    Most on here inhabit the M25 ring and so have absolutely not a clue on anything about Scotland. They think we are all unemployed , drinking Buckfast and running about in kilts eating fried Mars Bars.
    Is that not just Ayrshire?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,978

    Well if you take it in small enough doses no poison will harm you but you can be sure there are fuckwits out there who will hear the words of GOB [the Great Orange Berk] and swig it down like whiskey.

    He's a menace as well as an embarrassment.
    There is no accounting for stupidity. They walk amongst us.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    You would be more persuasive if, instead of endlessly repeating it, you made some kind of actual argument for it.
    The issue is two fold here, Edmund.

    1. You missed out a clear part of the post.
    2. You've not even read what was written properly.

    This does not make me look like the one lacking in basic debating skills, does it?

    So, I will repeat the basic facts of the situation again.

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.

    and, as it is a fundamentally correct statement, I will happily continue to do so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    IanB2 said:

    First law of tourism is that wherever and whenever you go, you will always come across a Dutch car, if not a Dutch campervan. I always assumed their country was so low and densely populated that a good proportion of them had to be away at all times. Which makes me wonder how they are coping now with everyone suddenly at home.
    Glass houses. When was the last time that there was a plane disaster when there was not a Brit on board?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Is "hard immunity" different to "herd immunity"? or is it only for cocks?
    better than anything Edmund's come up with this morning! have a like
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited April 2020
    Labour Party to investigate impact on minorities

    The UK's main opposition partry is set to probe the impact of coronavirus on black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities. According to the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, 34% of more than 4,800 critically ill patients with Covid-19 identified as BAME. This is despite only 14% of people in England and Wales being from ethnic minority backgrounds, according to the 2011 census.

    And again....no normalization for location or mention that it needs to be considered....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716

    The issue is two fold here, Edmund.

    1. You missed out a clear part of the post.
    2. You've not even read what was written properly.

    This does not make me look like the one lacking in basic debating skills, does it?

    So, I will repeat the basic facts of the situation again.

    In the absence of a vaccine, the only way out is hard immunity. There are plenty of supporting strategies that mitigate the effects of that decision.

    and, as it is a fundamentally correct statement, I will happily continue to do so.
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773

    There is no accounting for stupidity. They walk amongst us.
    But not, perhaps, for long.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051

    Most national myth are like that. German efficiency, for example.
    The Germans are actually far worse at major complex capital programmes than we are.

    Berlin Brandenberg airport (far less complex than Crossrail) is a complete disaster, look it up if you don't believe me, which they still haven't all fixed.

    They are tapping British expertise for their nuclear decommissioning programme too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    IanB2 said:

    Trump's comments on chloroquinine were no less "interesting" - sadly they "interested" that guy in Arizona who died after drinking fish tank cleaner and a whole host of folks in Nigeria who overdosed on their malaria pills, some fatally, rather too much.

    With a platform comes responsibility.
    I agree, there is a responsibility. Although regarding chloroquine, potentially his comments saved lives by highlighting it as a treatment option. The drug seems highly efficacious when used in conjunction with zinc (which our very own foxy has been recommending since the start of the outbreak). There is also a responsibility of individuals to respond to Trump in a way that benefits them. Responding to him as either God's word made flesh, or as the source of all the world's ills, seems harmful.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Trump said what last night?

    That the answer to Covid-19 is Cillit Bang.

    But you'll have to look it up because I'm not discussing him anymore.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926
    Alistair said:

    Just to reiterate that Sweden is basically unaffected by Coronavirus.

    Stockholm is fucked though. It is on its way to New York level deaths.

    It's far too early to assess whether Sweden or other countries have made the best decision.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Danish statistics office also offers an OLAP cube.

    Come on ONS, raise you game - excel spreadsheets aren't going to cut it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,455
    HYUFD said:

    China has a population over 10 times ours, since we gave up the British Empire obviously we are not going to be able to challenge China economically.

    20 times.

    I think that more accurately it was the British Empire that gave us up rather than vice versa.
This discussion has been closed.