Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Andrew Neil’s right – Starmer’s first PMQs showed that the Gov

124678

Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    So we're in for a military coup at 5 o'clock with the Chief of Defense Staff addressing the nation.

    You might count that as a step up in competence :wink:
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964

    So who would you rely on for advice on testing procedure - Gwynth Paltrow?
    Not quite sure how Gwynth Paltrow comes into this. All I remember about her is that she is (or was) an American actress who came to this country and complained to anybody who would listen, that nobody seemed to want to seduce her.

    On the subtantial point, I probably expressed myself badly. I should have said that the advisors were the impartial scientists, but they were unable to make any headway aginst the rather dim politicians that the country has decided to put in charge of them. The point of the derailing of the good advice has to be, not any bureaucratic structures, but the political interests that intervene: ie Conservative Party dogma and self-interest, and that boils down to spin and the abominal Cummings..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    Is this wrong?


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    Floater said:

    I'm not sure what you think I am saying tbh - What do I expect?????
    Apologies, I thought you were making a judgement on her meeting a friend on Saturday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    So we're in for a military coup at 5 o'clock with the Chief of Defense Staff addressing the nation.

    "Alright you bunch of pansies, it's time to get serious".
  • The main policy that seems to have avoided the NHS being overwhelmed was the move to lockdown, which only happened a week or so after most to Europe had already brought one in and with the likes of the Cheltenham Festival continuing in the meantime. The government hardly deserves credit for being the last to jump.

    Nor does it deserve credit for the early cessation of contact tracing, nor the disregarding of widespread testing initially, nor the failure to ramp up testing to match capacity, nor the failure to order in PPE initially, nor the ignoring of locally sourced PPE, nor the absence of proper quarantining, nor the failure to protect residents and staff in care homes, nor the failure to quickly bring in technological fixes to contact tracing (aka South Korea).

    In terms of health policy, if not the economic response, it's been a total omnishambles so far.
    I would not expect you to say anything else, but other views are available
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Floater said:

    And they just been told no tests to spare - despite a drive thru operation in Ipswich
    There's a big testing centre opening in a car park at Stansted too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    I don't just mean the UK, I am surprised Germany didn't try this when they had the various labs devising the tests. Or perhaps they did and their results weren't as good.
    That's a good question, to which I don't know the answer.
    I would guess that the tests themselves work with either a saliva sample or a swab - it's that the regulator specifies the manner of sample collection, and that's how it's always been done.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,276
    isam said:

    Is this wrong?


    Might Sweden have fewer people perhaps?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2020

    The main policy that seems to have avoided the NHS being overwhelmed was the move to lockdown, which only happened a week or so after most to Europe had already brought one in and with the likes of the Cheltenham Festival continuing in the meantime. The government hardly deserves credit for being the last to jump.

    Nor does it deserve credit for the early cessation of contact tracing, nor the disregarding of widespread testing initially, nor the failure to ramp up testing to match capacity, nor the failure to order in PPE initially, nor the ignoring of locally sourced PPE, nor the absence of proper quarantining, nor the failure to protect residents and staff in care homes, nor the failure to quickly bring in technological fixes to contact tracing (aka South Korea).

    In terms of health policy, if not the economic response, it's been a total omnishambles so far.
    Every country other than South Korea gave in on that. You can't do it without massive technology infrastructure. You realize it took several years for South Korea, probably the most technologically advanced nations on the planet, to get this system in place. They didn't wake up in February and gave a local IT firm a call and said can you make us a contract tracing system by next week....they had to pass a load of laws and built this technology out as a response to SARs and MERs.

    And you expect the government to have it in a few weeks? And we live in a western liberal democracy, where spying on your citizens every move, every purchase and every interaction, isn't very popular.

    If you know somebody who can develop advanced tech to meet your thinking of what the government should have been able to do in a few weeks, I have a very highly paid job for them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    Is this wrong?


    Yes, we don't map 1:8 in terms of population with Sweden, it should be 100 deaths in Sweden = 560 in England.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Apologies, I thought you were making a judgement on her meeting a friend on Saturday.
    My comment is really about the nhs losing 48 potential days of work from 2 nurses and a slight concern the people met may now be at risk of infection.

    Perhaps I should have left that bit out as it was an aside - no worries
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    A nurse to use a modicum of intelligence?
    Lets be honest the lockdown is being breached on a huge scale, especially amongst the young.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    isam said:

    Is this wrong?


    Source?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    tlg86 said:

    Was the issue the complaint from BeIN Sports rather than anything to do with human rights?
    What was the BeIn Sports complaint? (I can think of several dozen reasons why the Qatari-owned sports arm of Al-Jazeera Media might have a bone to pick with the Saudis at the moment).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    Our old friend has these... not quite what you asked for

    https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1252635468744843267?s=20

    https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1252972819295670272?s=20
    The inpatients one is appropriate and relevant (especially as London seems to have had it worst).
    (Although Haimes' statement isn't actually true - the chart shows that there was an increase in patients on the 18th. He means the line he added to it has been going down, which isn't exactly the same thing...)

    I'd prefer one with total inpatients (rather than the change in inpatients), of course, but it isn't too bad.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    The daily briefing is a rubbish format. Repetitive and not very informative. The govt should just issue daily statements, and then later a journalist gets to properly interview a minister (plus scientist if appropriate).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited April 2020

    So we're in for a military coup at 5 o'clock with the Chief of Defense Staff addressing the nation.

    Can't wait to see how he deals with inane questions from the Lobby hacks. Popcorn!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    There's a big testing centre opening in a car park at Stansted too.
    It gets slightly murky now - once I pointed out the alleged spare capacity she is now saying she doesn't want to be tested.

    Make of that what you will - but it stops another nurse working and less importantly my son too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    edited April 2020

    Hancock has made mistakes but he has stopped the NHS being overwhelmed to be fair
    Though one of the ways we've done that it to limit hospital admissions to the very sick - which means admitting them after the disease has progressed.
    From what I've read, Germany has taken a more proactive approach to admissions which means that they see the patients at an earlier stage of the infection (and might go some way to explaining their apparently lower death rate).

    And another, of course, has been the rather careless discharge of elderly patients into care homes, or back into the community...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329

    Might Sweden have fewer people perhaps?
    They do, but I think their number of deaths is on the right and ours the left
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,201
    kamski said:

    The daily briefing is a rubbish format. Repetitive and not very informative. The govt should just issue daily statements, and then later a journalist gets to properly interview a minister (plus scientist if appropriate).
    I expect HMG quite likes not being held to account.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    Anyway, predict UK will quickly make mask wearing compulsory now that Germany has
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    So we're in for a military coup at 5 o'clock with the Chief of Defense Staff addressing the nation.

    I wonder what piece of classical music they'll choose for the radio stations?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Sky News are interviewing one of these companies. It literally is "my mate has some PPE supplies if you want some".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited April 2020
    ClippP said:

    Not quite sure how Gwynth Paltrow comes into this. All I remember about her is that she is (or was) an American actress who came to this country and complained to anybody who would listen, that nobody seemed to want to seduce her.

    On the subtantial point, I probably expressed myself badly. I should have said that the advisors were the impartial scientists, but they were unable to make any headway aginst the rather dim politicians that the country has decided to put in charge of them. The point of the derailing of the good advice has to be, not any bureaucratic structures, but the political interests that intervene: ie Conservative Party dogma and self-interest, and that boils down to spin and the abominal Cummings..
    Like so many who have a dislike of Cummings you twist the story round him when he has had no part to play in the decisions being made in COBRA on the scientific and medical advise, agreed and accepted by the devolved governments, Sturgeon (SNP) , Drakeford ( Labour) and Foster (DUP) and implemented across the whole union

    Each and every one of these politicians has followed the advice, Cummings is irrelevant
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    The government is in place to 2024
    Flabbergasted by such certainty about UK politics in a time like this. If I really am on at 33/1 a 2021 GE with @Sandpit or through Betfair, I am most gratified.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited April 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Though one of the ways we've done that it to limit hospital admissions to the very sick - which means admitting them after the disease has progressed.
    From what I've read, Germany has taken a more proactive approach to admissions which means that they see the patients at an earlier stage of the infection (and might go some way to explaining their apparently lower death rate).

    And another, of course, has been the rather careless discharge of elderly patients into care homes, or back into the community...
    I saw an interesting video yesterday suggesting that there is something quite odd about CV, that people even with quite severe pneumonia appear to sit there quite normally (albeit breathing harder and deeper) even when their O2 sats are right down (which would normally have them in a total state). And that the delay between realizing and action could be part of the issue.

    If you get people early and put them on the CPAP masks, it can be much more effective.

    Instead, those extra hours or day, mean when they arrive, it is ventilator time, and we know that doesn't go well.
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    isam said:

    Is this wrong?


    I don't know, haven't checked your figures. but it would 100% not surprise me. My hunch, not expert opinion, will show that improved hand hygiene and structural population stuff (density, care homes, hospitalisation structure, inter-generational stuff, pre-existing health conditions) and self-regulated contact avoidance will have driven paths. who knows though i may well be wrong.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    Sandpit said:

    What was the BeIn Sports complaint? (I can think of several dozen reasons why the Qatari-owned sports arm of Al-Jazeera Media might have a bone to pick with the Saudis at the moment).
    BeIn have the rights across the Gulf to show the Premier League. Saudi are openly allowing companies to ignore those rights.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    MikeL said:

    Not seen this posted yet - is Pillar 4 going to ride to the Govt's rescue to meet the 100,000 tests target?

    Govt has today reported Pillar 4 tests for first time (though some took place on earlier days).

    Yet nobody seems to have said anything!

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths

    Don't think so.
    Aren't the the very accurate, but very limited number of serology tests assessed at Porton Down ?
    If there were a "very accurate" antibody test capable of mass use, that really would be news.
    (Though there have been some very recent claims of advances from other countries.)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    kamski said:

    Anyway, predict UK will quickly make mask wearing compulsory now that Germany has

    Not until we have a few 100 million spare ones.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    RobD said:

    Sky News are interviewing one of these companies. It literally is "my mate has some PPE supplies if you want some".


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    If we had done as well on testing and PPE as the ventilators / CPAP masks, the media would be back to complaining about the government advice wasn't clear enough on how long of a dog walk was allowed.
    No. I'd be delighted.
    We haven't.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    eek said:

    Not until we have a few 100 million spare ones.
    They will just tell people to improvise. It's not rocket science
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    edited April 2020
    HSJ article on deaths of NHS staff are similar to those for general population.

    https://twitter.com/LawrenceDunhill/status/1252983071353253888

    I hope that The Lobby have done some reading for once.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    Floater said:

    And they just been told no tests to spare - despite a drive thru operation in Ipswich

    "Excess capacity" versus "Managing demand"...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    RobD said:

    Because they need a story to justify themselves.
    hWy don't they run positive stories then?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    I expect HMG quite likes not being held to account.
    After the way Starmer dealt with Raab I look forward to his questioning of the Blusterer-in-Chief when he's fit enough to return to PMQ's.
  • Nigelb said:

    Though one of the ways we've done that it to limit hospital admissions to the very sick - which means admitting them after the disease has progressed.
    From what I've read, Germany has taken a more proactive approach to admissions which means that they see the patients at an earlier stage of the infection (and might go some way to explaining their apparently lower death rate).

    And another, of course, has been the rather careless discharge of elderly patients into care homes, or back into the community...
    I am with you on care homes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    I wish he'd ask why the government should be dealing with him, rather than the producers directly?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    kinabalu said:

    Flabbergasted by such certainty about UK politics in a time like this. If I really am on at 33/1 a 2021 GE with @Sandpit or through Betfair, I am most gratified.
    Theres always the possibility of not lasting the full term. The problem with your scenario of an early GE is its predicated on assumptions about the government finding it impossible to change direction without one which is nonsense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    OllyT said:

    hWy don't they run positive stories then?
    As if that would sell copies/clicks :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    BeIn have the rights across the Gulf to show the Premier League. Saudi are openly allowing companies to ignore those rights.
    Ah, the BeOutQ channels.

    Yes, it's thought that Saudis, with at least the willful ignorance of the government there, are re-broadcasting the BeIn channels on pirate streams in the region, depriving BeIn of revenue from Premier League and other sports broadcasts.

    What that has to do materially with a specific Saudi national wanting to buy shares in a football club, I have no idea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    Every country other than South Korea gave in on that. You can't do it without massive technology infrastructure. You realize it took several years for South Korea, probably the most technologically advanced nations on the planet, to get this system in place. They didn't wake up in February and gave a local IT firm a call and said can you make us a contract tracing system by next week....they had to pass a load of laws and built this technology out as a response to SARs and MERs.

    And you expect the government to have it in a few weeks? And we live in a western liberal democracy, where spying on your citizens every move, every purchase and every interaction, isn't very popular.

    If you know somebody who can develop advanced tech to meet your thinking of what the government should have been able to do in a few weeks, I have a very highly paid job for them.
    And Germany, to an extent.
    But otherwise, fair comment.
  • RobD said:

    Sky News are interviewing one of these companies. It literally is "my mate has some PPE supplies if you want some".

    I found the interview less than inspiring
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735

    I saw an interesting video yesterday suggesting that there is something quite odd about CV, that people even with quite severe pneumonia appear to sit there quite normally (albeit breathing harder and deeper) even when their O2 sats are right down (which would normally have them in a total state). And that the delay between realizing and action could be part of the issue.

    If you get people early and put them on the CPAP masks, it can be much more effective.

    Instead, those extra hours or day, mean when they arrive, it is ventilator time, and we know that doesn't go well.
    That was one of the things which made me speculate about the German death rate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kinabalu said:

    But what if EYE win?

    That's £660 and you're in the Middle East. I'm not coming over there.
    Fair enough, hope someone matches you on Betfair than.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    edited April 2020
    kamski said:

    Anyway, predict UK will quickly make mask wearing compulsory now that Germany has

    In Berlin it is only compulsory on public transport from Monday 27th, or have I missed something?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    Van-Tam is the only one that gets put up that doesn't take any shit.
    I noticed yesterday that Van Tam had the use of Priti's box.



    To stand on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    I noticed yesterday that Van Tam had the use of Priti's box.



    To stand on.
    Sounds kinky.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    edited April 2020
    This looks like a potentially important paper:

    SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2 is an interferon-stimulated gene in human airway epithelial cells and is detected in specific cell subsets across tissues
    https://www.cell.com/pb-assets/products/coronavirus/CELL_CELL-D-20-00767.pdf
    There is pressing urgency to understand the pathogenesis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus clade 2 (SARS-CoV-2) which causes the disease COVID-19. SARS-CoV- 2 spike (S)-protein binds ACE2, and in concert with host proteases, principally TMPRSS2, promotes cellular entry. The cell subsets targeted by SARS-CoV-2 in host tissues, and the factors that regulate ACE2 expression, remain unknown. Here, we leverage human, non-human primate, and mouse single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) datasets across health and disease to uncover putative targets of SARS-CoV-2 amongst tissue-resident cell subsets. We identify ACE2 and TMPRSS2 co-expressing cells within lung type II pneumocytes, ileal absorptive enterocytes, and nasal goblet secretory cells. Strikingly, we discover that ACE2 is a human interferon- stimulated gene (ISG) in vitro using airway epithelial cells, and extend our findings to in vivo viral infections. Our data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could exploit species-specific interferon-driven upregulation of ACE2, a tissue-protective mediator during lung injury, to enhance infection....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    The big loser today was Blackford. Corbyn helped make him look statesmanlike and measured. Starmer makes him look like a blustering buffoon.
    Nasty comparing him to Boris
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    The government doesn't have to do any such damned thing. That's the difference between 'winning the argument' and winning the election - the losers get to make impotent demands, and we get to laugh at them :wink:
    I'm not really viewing things through the prism of winning or losing. I sense we will be beyond that soon. There will be a moral imperative to shield the bottom quartile from the economic fallout of coronavirus. If the government recognizes this, fine. But if they don't, all bets are off - well apart from my 33/1 on a 2021 election.

    Still, none of this helps with testing or PPE in the here and now so I'm happy to move on.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    kamski said:

    They will just tell people to improvise. It's not rocket science
    Yes, here a scarf counts as a mask, or a T-Shirt cut up and sown into a mask.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    If as it now seems, ventilators are not the best thing for Coronavirus sufferers, I am sure Dyson will provide a credit note for something else. It's still a bung but it won't be wasted money at least.
    Credit note my butt, it will be pocketed and on to the next Tory fleecing scam. He will be doing PPE next.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964

    Like so many who have a dislike of Cummings you twist the story round him when he has had no part to play in the decisions being made in COBRA on the scientific and medical advise, agreed and accepted by the devolved governments, Sturgeon (SNP) , Drakeford ( Labour) and Foster (DUP) and implemented across the whole union
    Each and every one of these politicians has followed the advice, Cummings is irrelevant
    Not entirely, I think. He is one of those who go round rubbishing Arts degrees from Oxford, and expressing a preference for people with a STEM background. I understood that he was highly iinfluential in Conservative Government circles, even to the extent of sacking ministers.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Every country other than South Korea gave in on that. You can't do it without massive technology infrastructure. You realize it took several years for South Korea, probably the most technologically advanced nations on the planet, to get this system in place. They didn't wake up in February and gave a local IT firm a call and said can you make us a contract tracing system by next week....they had to pass a load of laws and built this technology out as a response to SARs and MERs.

    And you expect the government to have it in a few weeks? And we live in a western liberal democracy, where spying on your citizens every move, every purchase and every interaction, isn't very popular.

    If you know somebody who can develop advanced tech to meet your thinking of what the government should have been able to do in a few weeks, I have a very highly paid job for them.
    Other governments, eg. Germany, made continued efforts to trace contacts when we didn't, and to good effect. But as for the technological solution, the heavy lifting has already been done by South Korea, so it shouldn't take years. Based on this government's record, if it could be rolled out in 3 months it would take this lot 3 years. A repeated pattern of slowness, as Starmer said.

    Nonetheless, as you say, we can't just focus on the short term, and I let Hancock et al off lightly by doing so. They've been in for 10 years. So they're also responsible for the utterly inadequate preparations for a pandemic, and the decision to ignore their own reports warning of that. And they're also responsible for the decision to transfer public health responsibilities over to local government, taking it out of the NHS financial envelope in order to cut Public Health England's funding by 40%.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,201

    After the way Starmer dealt with Raab I look forward to his questioning of the Blusterer-in-Chief when he's fit enough to return to PMQ's.
    It would not surprise me if Boris switches back to the pre-Blair format of two PMQs a week, meaning SKS has only three questions a time so it will be harder to develop an argument, and will also make it easier for Boris to skip sessions.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,823
    Nigelb said:

    Don't think so.
    Aren't the the very accurate, but very limited number of serology tests assessed at Porton Down ?
    If there were a "very accurate" antibody test capable of mass use, that really would be news.
    (Though there have been some very recent claims of advances from other countries.)
    Even very accurate but limited in number tests would be famtastic at this pount - just to give us a better picture of what proportion of the population has antibodies.
  • ClippP said:

    Not entirely, I think. He is one of those who go round rubbishing Arts degrees from Oxford, and expressing a preference for people with a STEM background. I understood that he was highly iinfluential in Conservative Government circles, even to the extent of sacking ministers.
    He has no imput into Cobra, the decision making body
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    RobD said:

    As if that would sell copies/clicks :D
    Didn't stop them running endless positive Brexit stories or their daily sainted Katherine & William puff pieces.

    Why so negative on the government's performance in this crisis? As I said you just don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    OllyT said:

    Didn't stop them running endless positive Brexit stories or their daily sainted Katherine & William puff pieces.

    Why so negative on the government's performance in this crisis? As I said you just don't want to see what's staring you in the face.
    Let's see if any paper picks up on how bollocks this letter is then. I predict it will be zero because the more sensational the story is, the more copies/clicks it generates.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    It would not surprise me if Boris switches back to the pre-Blair format of two PMQs a week, meaning SKS has only three questions a time so it will be harder to develop an argument, and will also make it easier for Boris to skip sessions.
    Agree,
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Sandpit said:

    Fair enough, hope someone matches you on Betfair than.
    The one that got away. Ah well. :smile:

    Let's think of a gentle and fair even money £20 bet to do instead. One that settles this year.

    I'll revert with a proposal.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,637
    kinabalu said:

    Flabbergasted by such certainty about UK politics in a time like this. If I really am on at 33/1 a 2021 GE with @Sandpit or through Betfair, I am most gratified.
    Yes rethinking a bit - 33/1 isn't as crazy as I initially thought.
    Anything could happen, and there are plenty of things that could bring down the government...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    The one that got away. Ah well. :smile:

    Let's think of a gentle and fair even money £20 bet to do instead. One that settles this year.

    I'll revert with a proposal.
    I'm happy to bet with you, if you're happy to bet with me? A more fun bet paid to the site is fine, if £660 is too much.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    RobD said:

    Let's see if any paper picks up on how bollocks this letter is then. I predict it will be zero because the more sensational the story is, the more copies/clicks it generates.
    The Mail or Telegraph wouldn't hesitate to attack the letter if they thought they could get some political mileage out of it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    It would not surprise me if Boris switches back to the pre-Blair format of two PMQs a week, meaning SKS has only three questions a time so it will be harder to develop an argument, and will also make it easier for Boris to skip sessions.

    2 sessions a week is more work than BoZo would want to do, but "skipping sessions" is the primary charge against him right now.

    I don't see that reinforcing that message is helpful to him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    edited April 2020
    OllyT said:

    The Mail or Telegraph wouldn't hesitate to attack the letter if they thought they could get some political mileage out of it.
    Which headline do you think will generate more interest "government failings putting nhs workers at risk" or "labour's sexed up letter to the health minister"?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    I saw an interesting video yesterday suggesting that there is something quite odd about CV, that people even with quite severe pneumonia appear to sit there quite normally (albeit breathing harder and deeper) even when their O2 sats are right down (which would normally have them in a total state). And that the delay between realizing and action could be part of the issue.

    If you get people early and put them on the CPAP masks, it can be much more effective.

    Instead, those extra hours or day, mean when they arrive, it is ventilator time, and we know that doesn't go well.
    The "Patient Johnson" approach?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Raab sounding very positive, much more so than usual for the minister.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    Sandpit said:

    Raab sounding very positive, much more so than usual for the minister.

    Because the Army have been called in to sort out testing?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,201
    rkrkrk said:

    Yes rethinking a bit - 33/1 isn't as crazy as I initially thought.
    Anything could happen, and there are plenty of things that could bring down the government...
    It is crazy but not impossible. A more plausible rationale imo is that Boris quits for health, boredom or financial reasons and his successor decides to go for an early poll for job security and a new mandate, as Theresa May and Boris himself did. I'd want more than 33/1 though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    He hasn't drawn his weapon yet...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    RobD said:

    Which headline do you think will generate more interest "government failings putting nhs workers at risk" or "labour's sexed up letter to the health minister"?
    So you genuinely believe that Mail readers want to hear that their Brexit Tory government is failing? It's a view I suppose
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    He hasn't drawn his weapon yet...

    Would he really launch a coup in his combat fatigues?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    OllyT said:

    So you genuinely believe that Mail readers want to hear that their Brexit Tory government is failing? It's a view I suppose
    It's what they'll click on that matters more. I'm confident that the first headline would be clicked on far more often than the second.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,735
    Nigelb said:

    Don't think so.
    Aren't the the very accurate, but very limited number of serology tests assessed at Porton Down ?
    If there were a "very accurate" antibody test capable of mass use, that really would be news.
    (Though there have been some very recent claims of advances from other countries.)
    This was the claim I was taking about; important if borne out.

    Univ. of Washington ramps up Abbott Labs’ ‘fantastic’ test for COVID-19 antibodies
    https://www.geekwire.com/2020/univ-washington-ramps-abbott-labs-really-fantastic-test-covid-19-antibodies/

    ...Other antibody tests have already come into the market, but Jerome said Abbott’s test is “very, very sensitive, with a high degree of reliability.”

    Alex Greninger, the Virology Lab’s assistant director, said his team has run about 400 blood specimens through Abbott’s instruments, including samples that were stored from pre-COVID-19 blood tests. None of those old blood samples came back positive, but the test correctly identified people who were known to have had the virus.

    Abbott’s internal study, involving 1,200 specimens, had a sensitivity of 100% to COVID-19 antibodies, Greninger said. Just as importantly, the test achieved a 99.6% specificity, meaning that it was almost always able to distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.

    Once a blood specimen is drawn and delivered to the lab, it takes about 10 to 15 minutes to spin the sample to produce the serum for testing, and another 20 to 25 minutes to conduct the test, Greninger said. “The hardest part here is going to be getting the blood,” he said.

    One issue that’s come up with regard to virus testing has to do with the availability of supplies, such as nasal swabs and reagents, but Jerome didn’t think this would be a problem for Abbott’s antibody test. “We’ve been assured that this pipeline is robust,” he said. Abbott says it’s shipping out almost 1 million of the tests to U.S. customers this week, and will ramp up to a total of 4 million tests in April. It plans to ship 20 million tests per month by June....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    RobD said:

    Would he really launch a coup in his combat fatigues?
    You want him dressed for a regimental dinner?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    kle4 said:

    Theres always the possibility of not lasting the full term. The problem with your scenario of an early GE is its predicated on assumptions about the government finding it impossible to change direction without one which is nonsense.
    True. I should not have said impossible. Of course it is anything but impossible. With a crisis of this magnitude, however, I can imagine ramifications which could trigger an election. Another possibility - Brexit has to be revisited in some way shape or form.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    The other thing that annoys me about these briefings is the way they always say Britain is doing things better, how wonderful everything British is. Are other countries' governments doing this? Trump of course...

    Cant they be honest and just say yes some things have been better elsewhere and we're learning the lessons
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    isam said:

    Is this wrong?


    Well, according to Folkhälsomyndigheten, Sweden apparently had 106 deaths on the 9th of April and their scale on that graph doesn't go above 100, so something doesn't look right at first glance.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,092
    Raab already delivering misinformation. They did not build 7 new hospitals they used existing buildings and modified them .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    nico67 said:

    Raab already delivering misinformation. They did not build 7 new hospitals they used existing buildings and modified them .

    Still an achievement to get them from empty areas to functional field hospitals in such a short period. Only a humbug would suggest otherwise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited April 2020
    nico67 said:

    Raab already delivering misinformation. They did not build 7 new hospitals they used existing buildings and modified them .

    Nitpicking
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    kamski said:

    The other thing that annoys me about these briefings is the way they always say Britain is doing things better, how wonderful everything British is. Are other countries' governments doing this? Trump of course...

    Cant they be honest and just say yes some things have been better elsewhere and we're learning the lessons

    That will happen when the media will react calmly and with nuance, and not scream "FAILURE" or "U-TURN" in 150pt letters on the front pages.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,323
    Sandpit said:

    That will happen when the media will react calmly and with nuance, and not scream "FAILURE" or "U-TURN" in 150pt letters on the front pages.
    It's always someone else's fault
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    BBC first up with the stupid question.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,549
    OllyT said:

    Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?

    Serbian tennis professionals?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    OllyT said:

    Out of interest do we have anyone who would refuse a properly tested Covid-19 vaccine if it became available?

    Looking for some anti-vaxxer nutters? :p

    I could imagine there being some apprehension regarding long-term side effects, or short-term ones for those in more vulnerable groups.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Sandpit said:

    I'm happy to bet with you, if you're happy to bet with me? A more fun bet paid to the site is fine, if £660 is too much.
    No it's fine. But it's my £20 to your £660. Wanted to make double sure you are OK with that sort of sum.

    So if you win - which you will - I donate £20 on your behalf to PB Xmas 2021.

    And if I win - which I just might - what happens then with the £660?
This discussion has been closed.