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So that's a qualified yes to Peston's question ?Foxy said:
I think IgM antibodies are detectable after a week, and IgG in 3 weeks. IgM is short lived so indicates recent infection, indeed because of the duration of viral shedding, probable continuing infection. Viral PCR swabs can be positive sooner, but have a lot of false negatives.Nigelb said:
No, it's not.BannedinnParis said:
that's not a defence, that's the outpourings of a child.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637311334735872
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/0 -
Blimey Jess Phillips on the radio now and I find myself in agreement with her.
A first.0 -
More on the phenomenon of "cytokine storm syndrome".
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176783/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-china-treatment-cytokine-storm-syndrome0 -
If you are bailing out councils tax rises will have to come over the short term or long term, the money will not come from nowherePhilip_Thompson said:
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.HYUFD said:
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax risesPhilip_Thompson said:
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.HYUFD said:
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics.Philip_Thompson said:
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.HYUFD said:
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?noneoftheabove said:
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.HYUFD said:
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central governmentnoneoftheabove said:
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.HYUFD said:
Or they massively increase council taxnoneoftheabove said:
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.DecrepiterJohnL said:
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.noneoftheabove said:
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.rottenborough said:
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term0 -
There is one other factor which might mean a more optimistic scenario is possible, namely that it seems quite likely that there might be combinations of existing, already known to be safe, drugs which will allow doctors to treat patients more effectively and without recourse to intensive care and ventilators. If that does turn out to be the case, it will change the calculation a lot. Fingers crossed on that one.kinabalu said:
Well I hope you both DO make it through. I'm sure you will. And I think that WILL be what we end up doing. Not a lockdown on this scale for that long - since the economic and social damage would be too great - but some sort of targeted regime whereby those at high risk (quite a large group) remain isolated and the rest resume a stripped down version of normality - e.g. they WFH where possible and maintain a degree of social distancing. Schools reopen but pubs and the like probably don't. It's life, Jim, but not as we know it. I can't see any other feasible way forward. The end of this does not come until we have mass immunity. Achieving this by infection costs 3,000,000 hospital admissions and 200,000 lives, unthinkable, therefore the only route to it is via a vaccine, and a vaccine is probably over a year away. This is my rather downbeat assessment having now educated myself on the key metrics and chewed the thing over. I did so last night. Not a pleasant exercise - would vastly prefer to have listed out my top ten Madonna songs - but I felt I had to do it.bigjohnowls said:Lockdown until a vaccination is available for me and Mrs BJ even if that's 2021.
Unfortunately with Carers in day and night even that may not get us through.1 -
I sense Pesto is becoming the new Burgon on here. Whatever he says is - per se - an utterance of the utmost risibility.Nigelb said:This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/0 -
Becoming? Where have you been since 2008?kinabalu said:
I sense Pesto is becoming the new Burgon on here. Whatever he says is - per se - an utterance of the utmost risibility.Nigelb said:This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
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Don't worry. I've been informed the BROTH manufacturers are hard at work.Nigelb said:
Only so if you assume no treatments become available.DavidL said:
Not so good if you are going the SK route of rigorously testing and tracing the contacts of those with symptoms. Such a method is doomed to ultimate failure in such a scenario although the curve may be spread very long and shallow.Stereotomy said:
Potentially good rather than scary, if it indicates more people have already got/had it and are immune.Andrew said:Mildly scary breakdown from S Korean cult testing:
https://twitter.com/ArchConway/status/1245655027655405571
That seems unlikely.0 -
One of the things I have touched on before is the recovery rate in the UK which is stuck at 135 meaning that more than 95% of UK cases are ending in death.
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.0 -
Again, it's not the fact that he's doing his job; it's purely the way he's doing it. Just watch the video of him with Van Tam - the poor guy can't finish a single sentence without some kind of interruption from Peston.Nigelb said:
I'm not a fan of Peston, but the add hominems do little to excuse the government's extremely poor communication of late.Endillion said:
It's a totally reasonable question. What's not reasonable is his refusal to shut up for long enough to listen to the answer he's being given, and his obvious preconceived notions that the answer's wrong because it doesn't help his agenda.Nigelb said:
No, it's not.BannedinnParis said:
that's not a defence, that's the outpourings of a child.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637311334735872
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
The media might not be doing their job very well, either - but expecting them to stop doing it is a ridiculous response. (That comment is not directed at you personally.)
The fact that Peston has become the story here is a good indication that he's screwed up.2 -
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Like this, you mean?BluestBlue said:
I would honestly go with 'Stay The Fuck Home!'rottenborough said:
People would spend so much time debating how rude it is that everyone would get the message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0-2XxgHIXk
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Depends what you mean...DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
The number of new infections will likely have been maximised on the day the lockdown was called. The number of cases being admitted to hospital (and being tested positive) is now constant (happens ~10-14 days after lockdown) instead of rising, so there is not a (relative) rise in new cases. We saw the same thing in Italy with the plateau before a gradual decline in new cases, which will hopefully happen in Spain over the weekend.0 -
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She lives next door to @MarqueeMark, I expect she's regularly tested.bigjohnowls said:
Has she been tested?MarqueeMark said:My 89 year old neighbour has left me her home-made loganberry bakewell on the plague bench - bless her!
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Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is one other factor which might mean a more optimistic scenario is possible, namely that it seems quite likely that there might be combinations of existing, already known to be safe, drugs which will allow doctors to treat patients more effectively and without recourse to intensive care and ventilators. If that does turn out to be the case, it will change the calculation a lot. Fingers crossed on that one.kinabalu said:
Well I hope you both DO make it through. I'm sure you will. And I think that WILL be what we end up doing. Not a lockdown on this scale for that long - since the economic and social damage would be too great - but some sort of targeted regime whereby those at high risk (quite a large group) remain isolated and the rest resume a stripped down version of normality - e.g. they WFH where possible and maintain a degree of social distancing. Schools reopen but pubs and the like probably don't. It's life, Jim, but not as we know it. I can't see any other feasible way forward. The end of this does not come until we have mass immunity. Achieving this by infection costs 3,000,000 hospital admissions and 200,000 lives, unthinkable, therefore the only route to it is via a vaccine, and a vaccine is probably over a year away. This is my rather downbeat assessment having now educated myself on the key metrics and chewed the thing over. I did so last night. Not a pleasant exercise - would vastly prefer to have listed out my top ten Madonna songs - but I felt I had to do it.bigjohnowls said:Lockdown until a vaccination is available for me and Mrs BJ even if that's 2021.
Unfortunately with Carers in day and night even that may not get us through.0 -
There are many cases when, in a specialist area, someone who has read up on it for a couple of days and had some briefings from experts, think he/she has insights.Nigelb said:
No, it's not.BannedinnParis said:
that's not a defence, that's the outpourings of a child.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637311334735872
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
This is the point where the grad students gets told "no" by the professors. A lot.
The trick is to ask why you are wrong, digest and move froward.2 -
Ok ty.. what is ridiculously cheap..? i suspect however cheap it may be it will be beyond my wallet a cursury look is 11k down and 1200 plus a month for 4 yrs in a pcp..Dura_Ace said:
4th gen watercooled 911. 2019 or later.squareroot2 said:
A 992 is ?Dura_Ace said:The car manufacturers must be in the absolute shit. I just got an email from PFS UK offering absolutely ridiculously cheap leases on 992s for 2021 delivery. Might weigh in Mrs DA's gold jewelry down and get a 7 speed manual base model with no options.
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The money will come from the Bank of England printing it primarily and government bonds being issues for which interest will be paid. So long as this is short term neither require massive tax rises.HYUFD said:
If you are bailing out councils tax rises will have to come over the short term or long term, the money will not come from nowherePhilip_Thompson said:
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.HYUFD said:
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax risesPhilip_Thompson said:
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.HYUFD said:
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics.Philip_Thompson said:
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.HYUFD said:
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?noneoftheabove said:
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.HYUFD said:
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central governmentnoneoftheabove said:
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.HYUFD said:
Or they massively increase council taxnoneoftheabove said:
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.DecrepiterJohnL said:
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.noneoftheabove said:
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.rottenborough said:
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term0 -
What has been suggested are some of the rational tax changes that should have been made by now anyway, like extending the coverage of NI to match income tax, maybe merging them, lower pension contributions for the well off, closing loopholes on inheritance tax. Id expect to see something like that plus a 1-2% rise in income tax to appease those who think we must raise more tax, rather than out of pure economic judgement.Philip_Thompson said:
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.HYUFD said:
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax risesPhilip_Thompson said:
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.HYUFD said:
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics.Philip_Thompson said:
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.HYUFD said:
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?noneoftheabove said:
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.HYUFD said:
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central governmentnoneoftheabove said:
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.HYUFD said:
Or they massively increase council taxnoneoftheabove said:
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.DecrepiterJohnL said:
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.noneoftheabove said:
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.rottenborough said:
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term0 -
Here's hoping. For all our sakes.Nigelb said:
Only so if you assume no treatments become available.DavidL said:
Not so good if you are going the SK route of rigorously testing and tracing the contacts of those with symptoms. Such a method is doomed to ultimate failure in such a scenario although the curve may be spread very long and shallow.Stereotomy said:
Potentially good rather than scary, if it indicates more people have already got/had it and are immune.Andrew said:Mildly scary breakdown from S Korean cult testing:
https://twitter.com/ArchConway/status/1245655027655405571
That seems unlikely.0 -
So that's why people should be nice to their neighbours! I've missed my chance, sadly.MarqueeMark said:My 89 year old neighbour has left me her home-made loganberry bakewell on the plague bench - bless her!
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That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.bigjohnowls said:We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?2 -
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.0
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Anyone who cares to simply check the “traffic” function on Google Maps will be able to tell you that there is much much less traffic on London’s roads than normal.MarqueeMark said:
I have noticed little difference in traffic at home - but that is because there is zero drop in tractor movement and apart from them, we have bugger all traffic anyway...noneoftheabove said:
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.rottenborough said:
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).0 -
Not enough, I suspect.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You only need 'there will be tax rises'HYUFD said:
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax risesPhilip_Thompson said:
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.HYUFD said:
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics.Philip_Thompson said:
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.HYUFD said:
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?noneoftheabove said:
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.HYUFD said:
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central governmentnoneoftheabove said:
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.HYUFD said:
Or they massively increase council taxnoneoftheabove said:
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.DecrepiterJohnL said:
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.noneoftheabove said:
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.rottenborough said:
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term0 -
Harsh....AlastairMeeks said:
She lives next door to @MarqueeMark, I expect she's regularly tested.bigjohnowls said:
Has she been tested?MarqueeMark said:My 89 year old neighbour has left me her home-made loganberry bakewell on the plague bench - bless her!
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50% of Tory voters though think the measures were taken at the right time, only 44% too lateScott_xP said:0 -
Again I agree largely with that but I expect the unwind to be slow and hopefully all the time our testing ramps up to near or at the level requiredkinabalu said:
Thanks very much. Although I was hoping that somebody would tell me it isn't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Fair assessment
The only way I can see that is more positive is if the lockdown allows the NHS to cope with the peak of this outbreak, then afterwards we implement a very rigorous and effective Korean style "test and trace" regime which allows us to, other than this, return to normal life.
But I can't see us being up to that task. I think it's beyond our capability. Or let's just say that the evidence that we CAN do it is somewhat lacking.
Some hope for lockdown to end soon, but I doubt it will be before mid June or later and by then we should have the experience of other countries like Japan, Italy and Spain who are likely to be ahead in the wind down timetable1 -
Had disposable gloves delivered and more wipes delivered. Decided to give the bin and door handles a wipe down. Moisturiser still on its way xD0
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While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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Sounds like he, a professional communicator, was not communicating his point very well. Not alone in that of course.Nigelb said:
No, it's not.BannedinnParis said:
that's not a defence, that's the outpourings of a child.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637311334735872
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/1 -
I suspect by the number of likes you have recieved people do care. Good luck!FrancisUrquhart said:Not that anybody will necessarily care, but I have been approached about assisting with the response to this crisis, so I may be gone some time.
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Spain is going to pass Italy unfortunately
Hope we dont surpass both0 -
Grim news. A work acquaintance lost both parents in law on consecutive days to the Coronavirus over the weekend. Scary stuff going on.0
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I’ve always thought that the time lag between infection and symptoms meant that the policy of herd immunity and lockdown could actually be pursued in parallel.ABZ said:
Good to hear. The numbers do certainly seem to have stabilised in terms of new cases. It's not good, but the situation will start to improve in a week. I was reading that in northern Italy that the ICUs are under much less strain this week and, indeed, in some of the previously worst affected areas have capacity again. However, lockdowns take time to have an effect...nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
One slight positive, given the fairly high asymptomatic case numbers that are anticipated, it is possible that a really quite large fraction of the population in Spain will have been infected. For example, say the final tally is 200,000 cases, most of which will have been diagnosed in hospital in people with fairly serious pathologies. If this represents 20% of cases with any symptoms (this was the number reported from China, who did not count asymptomatic positives), then 1,000,000 people will have had symptomatic (mild + severe) cases of Covid-19.
However, if the research from South Korea linked to below is correct (and other countries, including Iceland and the Veneto are consistent, so it's reasonable to think this is not crazy) and 80-90% are completely asymptomatic, then 5-10 million people across Spain might already have been infected (so say 20% of the entire population). If this turns out to be the case (serology will be critical to validate) then a lot of people should have a degree of immunity for the next round, which will partially limit the ability of the virus to spread.
And this is independent of improvements in testing / contract tracing / and hopefully anti-virals, which should further slow down the spread next time0 -
There was a way of framing the question that wouldn't have made Peston look like a tit: "The manufacturer claims* that this test can identify those currently with the disease [despite it being an antibody rather than antigen test]. Can that be true?"Endillion said:
Again, it's not the fact that he's doing his job; it's purely the way he's doing it. Just watch the video of him with Van Tam - the poor guy can't finish a single sentence without some kind of interruption from Peston.Nigelb said:
I'm not a fan of Peston, but the add hominems do little to excuse the government's extremely poor communication of late.Endillion said:
It's a totally reasonable question. What's not reasonable is his refusal to shut up for long enough to listen to the answer he's being given, and his obvious preconceived notions that the answer's wrong because it doesn't help his agenda.Nigelb said:
No, it's not.BannedinnParis said:
that's not a defence, that's the outpourings of a child.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637311334735872
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
The media might not be doing their job very well, either - but expecting them to stop doing it is a ridiculous response. (That comment is not directed at you personally.)
The fact that Peston has become the story here is a good indication that he's screwed up.
Bits in [] if he wants to show he understands the difference. Prof could then have given exactly the same answer without having to tell Peston he's wrong (as it was, he wasn't really given a choice).
*I've not source for this other then Peston, so don't know whether they actually claim that.
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Mexicanpete said:
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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I like 'Frontoviks'!! How is Leicester looking at present? Hope the situation is still not too grim there...Foxy said:
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.bigjohnowls said:We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?0 -
The government are doing well at dodging the blame for their failure if the voters think the relevant question is this exceedingly stupid one.Scott_xP said:
The right question is whether the British government (like other European governments) was too slow in doing less disruptive things like cancelling events, closing pubs, enforcing quarantine requirements on incoming travel and *asking* (not requiring) people to work from home where practical. And the answer to that is, yes, it could have done these things weeks ago, and quite plausibly that would have both avoided the need for the current lockdown and saved a lot of lives.0 -
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
I'm assuming that means symptoms when tested? If so, how many went on to develop symptoms after being tested positive?GIN1138 said:
He needs to quit whining and man up.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328Andrew said:Mildly scary breakdown from S Korean cult testing:
https://twitter.com/ArchConway/status/1245655027655405571
That actually sounds like the best news we've had on this since January?0 -
They are" hoping to test another 1000 nhs staff today"
At that rate they will all have had one test by 20220 -
Latest data at 11:45am today
0 -
Because their attitude is that the British people "can't cope", translated as "we have too many people who would gladly trade being able to go shopping/to the pub for saving people's lives".DAlexander said:
I must admit to not understanding the logic of this, I must be missing something.rottenborough said:
As I see it the lockdown will eventually get the numbers down low enough that tracking and tracing those with the virus will be possible in the way South Korea are doing it.
Waiting until more are infected before the lockdown just means more deaths before that point is reached. The fact that say 0.5% rather than 0.2% of the population have had the virus after makes no real difference in terms of a herd immunity strategy.
So what is the advantage of having a lockdown later?
I'm glad the messaging has been harsher, now we need to move to a more strict lockdown. Too many people are trying to wriggle out of it, given succour by a press whinging about it and (because it happened too late) of the belief that it's up to them to decide when they can do something, not the government.
For the next two weeks, we need to move to the next stage, the one that Spain and Italy had to move to. The people going on about what a terrible attack on their freedom what we currently have is, need to be told in no uncertain terms that we are at war and need to suspend norms, so that we can survive it as fit as possible.1 -
Are you sure the 6120 new cases is for today, or for this morning? When looking at the very latest figures, we need to be sure that the count is for a 24 hour period.DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
0 -
It's a bit like starting a petition for bad things to stop happening, and good things to happen in their place. Uncontroversial but not massively helpful.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
85% asymptomatic? That's great news.Andrew said:Mildly scary breakdown from S Korean cult testing:
https://twitter.com/ArchConway/status/12456550276554055714 -
Frontovik is a Russion term for troops who have served in combat. It hasn't got a precise English equivalent.ABZ said:
I like 'Frontoviks'!! How is Leicester looking at present? Hope the situation is still not too grim there...Foxy said:
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.bigjohnowls said:We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?0 -
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.Nigelb said:Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
0 -
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
Now be fair BJO.bigjohnowls said:They are" hoping to test another 1000 nhs staff today"
At that rate they will all have had one test by 2022
That testing rate will see a huge increase over the next 14 days0 -
As far as I understand it (which is not that far!) it is feasible that you might get a positive antibody test from someone still actively infected, if they've been infected long enough for there to be sufficient immune response to pick up. But people will be infected (and infectious) for a period before the antibody test would give a positive result. So it's not very useful (well, pretty useless, really) for determining who is presently infectious, e.g. to decide which NHS staff can go in to work for example.Nigelb said:
So that's a qualified yes to Peston's question ?Foxy said:
I think IgM antibodies are detectable after a week, and IgG in 3 weeks. IgM is short lived so indicates recent infection, indeed because of the duration of viral shedding, probable continuing infection. Viral PCR swabs can be positive sooner, but have a lot of false negatives.Nigelb said:
No, it's not.BannedinnParis said:
that's not a defence, that's the outpourings of a child.rottenborough said:Peston's defence:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637309023715328
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245637311334735872
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
I await correction from someone who knows more about this...0 -
Some perhaps, but a lot are being repurposed. Remdesivir is probably the most promising I think, but there are others being currently tested in a huge number of trials. There's a good reason to hope that one of them will have an effect upon the progression of the disease (especially combined with rapid testing, which could enable treatment to be received immediately following diagnosis).Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.Nigelb said:Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
0 -
What I meant is that the number of active cases is still increasing and will be for some time to come. It's just no longer growing exponentially which is obviously the first step. But the time that those who are unfortunate enough to get this badly in hospital is one of the biggest problems because it inevitably means the hospitals cannot cope. It's another reason for having accurate records of those discharged "cured" which we don't have.ABZ said:
Depends what you mean...DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
The number of new infections will likely have been maximised on the day the lockdown was called. The number of cases being admitted to hospital (and being tested positive) is now constant (happens ~10-14 days after lockdown) instead of rising, so there is not a (relative) rise in new cases. We saw the same thing in Italy with the plateau before a gradual decline in new cases, which will hopefully happen in Spain over the weekend.0 -
Those carrying out the testing at IKEA Wembley dont have the right PPE.
FFS can those organising this go off and run a brewery instead0 -
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
0 -
That is just terrible. Keep safeFoxy said:Grim news. A work acquaintance lost both parents in law on consecutive days to the Coronavirus over the weekend. Scary stuff going on.
0 -
And is a huge increase on the past. Progress is progress.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Now be fair BJO.bigjohnowls said:They are" hoping to test another 1000 nhs staff today"
At that rate they will all have had one test by 2022
That testing rate will see a huge increase over the next 14 days
We will be succeeding when testing numbers increase faster than cases increase.0 -
I could imagine this been done giving the enormous pressure to increase testing numbers.bigjohnowls said:Those carrying out the testing at IKEA Wembley dont have the right PPE.
FFS can those organising this go off and run a brewery instead0 -
@bigjohnowls Sounds like a nightmare.0
-
Hopefully sooner - I'd hope to see hints of a tail off on Monday (similar to Italy).nichomar said:
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
0 -
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after the WA Government's spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
The petition effective before it even began!RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
Given how events and info lag in all this, there's lots of 'do this' 'we are planning to' which can allow the former to claim credit for forcing government to do things. Though I don't doubt increased public pressure on various issues does have an effect. Greater calls for a lockdown probably enabled the decision to be taken easier than trying it before there was pressure.1 -
"Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition."
Is there a petition yet demanding that the virus cease spreading forthwith?6 -
I don't want start a fight over global warming (disclosure: it is happening) but I think you have the science the wrong way round there. We know a feck of a lot about human beings, and about viruses, and about infection because we have access to literally billions of each, and lots of completed case studies about outcomes when the two get together. With the earth (a system as complex as the human body) we have a sample of 1 out of a population of 1, with the patient in the early stages of a hitherto unknown disease, and all we can do is model outcomes. Most of the debate about covid is a great deal more settled than that.kamski said:
It's nothing like the global warming debate (the wisdom of a coronavirus lock down is not yet settled science), people paid by fossil fuel billionaires to spread misinformation have been given far too much credence for far too long in the interests of "balance"noneoftheabove said:
Stocky made the case against extending the lockdown on here yesterday eloquently and although most did not agree with him, it received widespread praise.TGOHF666 said:
Beginning to resemble the global warming debate - those with differing opinions must be hounded regardless of any data.Philip_Thompson said:
'Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.'isam said:
Why should he? Journalists should write whatever they like, we are not behind the iron curtainbigjohnowls said:
No Hitchens should STFUisam said:
Differing opinions are welcomed by the vast majority, ill informed ranting less so.
The nutters some of whom still claim that AIDS isn't caused by HIV are rightly ridiculed and ignored - hardly anybody complains (is it because they don't have a trillion dollar industry behind them that spends more on disinformation than any other?)
1 -
I got it from the Worldometer site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/nichomar said:
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
6,120 is their exact figure. We had this issue a couple of days ago. There are clearly some discrepancies in the way that the numbers are collated.0 -
Well, he didn't mention what type, so it could be hundreds of millions of pairs of gloves and nothing else.Mexicanpete said:
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
and Blue Peter could show you how to make 2 improvised masks out of the packaging.MarqueeMark said:My 89 year old neighbour has left me her home-made loganberry bakewell on the plague bench - bless her!
0 -
Agreed, sorry for their loss.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just terrible. Keep safeFoxy said:Grim news. A work acquaintance lost both parents in law on consecutive days to the Coronavirus over the weekend. Scary stuff going on.
0 -
But, with containment failed what do you do at the end of your lockdown?DAlexander said:
It would have prevented community spread in the first place.LostPassword said:
The lockdown is to clamp down on community transmission of the virus. In the early stages most of our new cases were due to travel, so a lockdown at that stage wouldn't have made a difference.DAlexander said:
I must admit to not understanding the logic of this, I must be missing something.rottenborough said:
As I see it the lockdown will eventually get the numbers down low enough that tracking and tracing those with the virus will be possible in the way South Korea are doing it.
Waiting until more are infected before the lockdown just means more deaths before that point is reached. The fact that say 0.5% rather than 0.2% of the population have had the virus after makes no real difference in terms of a herd immunity strategy.
So what is the advantage of having a lockdown later?
We're going to be in the same position after a lockdown regardless of whether it was earlier or later, only doing it later causes more deaths.
We can't do permanent lockdown. What we are doing is as much lockdown as is required to keep the spread of the virus within NHS capacity - and working to increase that capacity.2 -
Its ludicrous points scoring on party lines.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Now be fair BJO.bigjohnowls said:They are" hoping to test another 1000 nhs staff today"
At that rate they will all have had one test by 2022
That testing rate will see a huge increase over the next 14 days1 -
Battle hardened/seasoned troops,.?Foxy said:
Frontovik is a Russion term for troops who have served in combat. It hasn't got a precise English equivalent.ABZ said:
I like 'Frontoviks'!! How is Leicester looking at present? Hope the situation is still not too grim there...Foxy said:
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.bigjohnowls said:We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?0 -
Other than all the comments reproaching it.Mexicanpete said:
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
Isn’t it also a measure of actual case load on the nhs and of how effective treatment is?DavidL said:One of the things I have touched on before is the recovery rate in the UK which is stuck at 135 meaning that more than 95% of UK cases are ending in death.
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.0 -
I will contact Change.Org to request that immediately.NorthofStoke said:"Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition."
Is there a petition yet demanding that the virus cease spreading forthwith?0 -
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.Mexicanpete said:
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
5 -
Worldometer add the numbers from Catalunya in the evening (they are published around 10pm); these figures get folded into the daily Spain-wide updates.DavidL said:
I got it from the Worldometer site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/nichomar said:
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.DavidL said:
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.nichomar said:Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
6,120 is their exact figure. We had this issue a couple of days ago. There are clearly some discrepancies in the way that the numbers are collated.1 -
Money does come from nowhere. That's how money works in an economy unlike a household.HYUFD said:
If you are bailing out councils tax rises will have to come over the short term or long term, the money will not come from nowherePhilip_Thompson said:
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.HYUFD said:
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax risesPhilip_Thompson said:
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.HYUFD said:
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics.Philip_Thompson said:
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.HYUFD said:
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?noneoftheabove said:
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.HYUFD said:
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central governmentnoneoftheabove said:
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.HYUFD said:
Or they massively increase council taxnoneoftheabove said:
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.DecrepiterJohnL said:
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.noneoftheabove said:
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.rottenborough said:
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term0 -
There is a global shortage of equipment. Every nation in the world is seeking far more of it than they'd ever normally require.DavidL said:
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.Mexicanpete said:
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
I would bow to the experts such as @Foxy on that, there may be better ways of measuring it such as the percentage of ICUs being used, but yes, it should give us a rough idea.nichomar said:
Isn’t it also a measure of actual case load on the nhs and of how effective treatment is?DavidL said:One of the things I have touched on before is the recovery rate in the UK which is stuck at 135 meaning that more than 95% of UK cases are ending in death.
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.0 -
I haven't seen much reproach, and any who do question any part of the Government's handling of the crisis, are shot down in flames by the PB aerial tag team.kle4 said:
Other than all the comments reproaching it.Mexicanpete said:
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
0 -
That's slightly different. I was referring to the possibility of new drugs that healthy people, with no infection, would take to prevent them getting hit by the virus (or hit badly), in the same way that people take anti-malarial prophylactics. In this case it could for example be a drug with a very specific effect of interfering with the process by which the virus latches on the ACE-2 receptors.ABZ said:
Some perhaps, but a lot are being repurposed. Remdesivir is probably the most promising I think, but there are others being currently tested in a huge number of trials. There's a good reason to hope that one of them will have an effect upon the progression of the disease (especially combined with rapid testing, which could enable treatment to be received immediately following diagnosis).Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.Nigelb said:Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
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There will probably be political errors to examine in this whole situation, but given what is happening problems seem more likely to be in emergency planning protocols, institutional issues and matters of supply etc. As you say no politician will not be trying to do as much as can be done, there's not likely to be political factors at play there, so I suspect any politically driven issues will be difficult to spot until we are out of this.DavidL said:
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.Mexicanpete said:
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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I'm at ~ 5 known/suspected cases out of my facebook friends and colleagues/partners. That's a group of approx 520 people so 5/520 = 1.2%. All mild or recovered cases thankfully.
How are everyone else's acquaintances numbers looking ?0 -
I have it on terrible authority that it's actually just half a billion left-handed gloves.RobD said:
Well, he didn't mention what type, so it could be hundreds of millions of pairs of gloves and nothing else.Mexicanpete said:
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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Would blood pressure medication work ?Richard_Nabavi said:
That's slightly different. I was referring to the possibility of new drugs that healthy people, with no infection, would take to prevent them getting hit by the virus (or hit badly), in the same way that people take anti-malarial prophylactics. In this case it could for example be a drug with a very specific effect of interfering with the process by which the virus latches on the ACE-2 receptors.ABZ said:
Some perhaps, but a lot are being repurposed. Remdesivir is probably the most promising I think, but there are others being currently tested in a huge number of trials. There's a good reason to hope that one of them will have an effect upon the progression of the disease (especially combined with rapid testing, which could enable treatment to be received immediately following diagnosis).Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.Nigelb said:Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
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You can take a swab with one hand, right?Endillion said:
I have it on terrible authority that it's actually just half a billion left-handed gloves.RobD said:
Well, he didn't mention what type, so it could be hundreds of millions of pairs of gloves and nothing else.Mexicanpete said:
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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What happens when the test numbers rise and the deaths keep on increasing ?RobD said:
I could imagine this been done giving the enormous pressure to increase testing numbers.bigjohnowls said:Those carrying out the testing at IKEA Wembley dont have the right PPE.
FFS can those organising this go off and run a brewery instead0 -
The reasoning behind the lockdown was explained at the beginning. It is to slow new cases (flatten the curve) so that the NHS is not overwhelmed and therefore those infected or ill due to other causes have a decent chance of survival and the benefit of more experience in dealing with the disease. Even if widespread antibody testing does not become available the logic is that the lockdown can be relaxed when hospital admissions fall and the models show sufficient treatment headroom. Relaxation of the lockdown I reckon will be incremental and differential (maintained longer for vulnerable and direct carers). It might also have to be increased again if admissions surge. Lots of testing helps (particularly for NHS headroom by reducing staff absences) and for verifying the models but does not change the logic.2
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DavidL said:
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.Mexicanpete said:
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
This is true and in any case any finger pointing should be directed at Hunt for suppressing the 2016 pandemic report and any number of politicians from that and previous governments who failed to take this threat seriously. Unfortunately it is always more sexy to take the current lot to task.DavidL said:
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.Mexicanpete said:
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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Then you' ve missed all those comments about how we were late in putting in the lockdown, that it should be harder, that testing has not been sufficient, that PPE has not been provided adequately... and so onMexicanpete said:
I haven't seen much reproach, and any do question any part of the Government's handling of the crisis, are shot down in flames by the PB aerial tag team.kle4 said:
Other than all the comments reproaching it.Mexicanpete said:
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.RobD said:
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.Mexicanpete said:
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.Foxy said:
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
There's been reproach. Minority reproach? Probably, but like people openly saying they are not allowed to openly say things, it's not the case that they have been above reproach even if a majority are not reproaching or even object to reproaching. That many or even most don't doesn't mean it doesn't happen.1 -
Philip Lee explains this was war gamed two years ago. Did the results not get past the Severn Bridge until late May 2020?DavidL said:
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.Mexicanpete said:
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.DavidL said:Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.Mexicanpete said:Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
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[Nitpick] 5/520 must be <1% [/Nitpick]Pulpstar said:I'm at ~ 5 known/suspected cases out of my facebook friends and colleagues/partners. That's a group of approx 520 people so 5/520 = 1.2%. All mild or recovered cases thankfully.
How are everyone else's acquaintances numbers looking ?0 -
Dunno. I think that has been suggested as a possibility.Pulpstar said:
Would blood pressure medication work ?0 -
I don't want to start a fight about it either (disclosure: I agree) but the policies of lockdown are a huge quantum leap from anything that has ever been contemplated in terms of reduction of carbon emissions. If the effect of massive reductions in flights, traffic, manufacturing, vessel movement etc are measurable then we will surely have the definitive answer as to whether anthropomorphic global warming is a thing.IshmaelZ said:
I don't want start a fight over global warming (disclosure: it is happening) but I think you have the science the wrong way round there. We know a feck of a lot about human beings, and about viruses, and about infection because we have access to literally billions of each, and lots of completed case studies about outcomes when the two get together. With the earth (a system as complex as the human body) we have a sample of 1 out of a population of 1, with the patient in the early stages of a hitherto unknown disease, and all we can do is model outcomes. Most of the debate about covid is a great deal more settled than that.kamski said:
It's nothing like the global warming debate (the wisdom of a coronavirus lock down is not yet settled science), people paid by fossil fuel billionaires to spread misinformation have been given far too much credence for far too long in the interests of "balance"noneoftheabove said:
Stocky made the case against extending the lockdown on here yesterday eloquently and although most did not agree with him, it received widespread praise.TGOHF666 said:
Beginning to resemble the global warming debate - those with differing opinions must be hounded regardless of any data.Philip_Thompson said:
'Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.'isam said:
Why should he? Journalists should write whatever they like, we are not behind the iron curtainbigjohnowls said:
No Hitchens should STFUisam said:
Differing opinions are welcomed by the vast majority, ill informed ranting less so.
The nutters some of whom still claim that AIDS isn't caused by HIV are rightly ridiculed and ignored - hardly anybody complains (is it because they don't have a trillion dollar industry behind them that spends more on disinformation than any other?)0
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