This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
I think IgM antibodies are detectable after a week, and IgG in 3 weeks. IgM is short lived so indicates recent infection, indeed because of the duration of viral shedding, probable continuing infection. Viral PCR swabs can be positive sooner, but have a lot of false negatives.
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.
Or they massively increase council tax
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central government
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics. If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax rises
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.
If you are bailing out councils tax rises will have to come over the short term or long term, the money will not come from nowhere
Lockdown until a vaccination is available for me and Mrs BJ even if that's 2021.
Unfortunately with Carers in day and night even that may not get us through.
Well I hope you both DO make it through. I'm sure you will. And I think that WILL be what we end up doing. Not a lockdown on this scale for that long - since the economic and social damage would be too great - but some sort of targeted regime whereby those at high risk (quite a large group) remain isolated and the rest resume a stripped down version of normality - e.g. they WFH where possible and maintain a degree of social distancing. Schools reopen but pubs and the like probably don't. It's life, Jim, but not as we know it. I can't see any other feasible way forward. The end of this does not come until we have mass immunity. Achieving this by infection costs 3,000,000 hospital admissions and 200,000 lives, unthinkable, therefore the only route to it is via a vaccine, and a vaccine is probably over a year away. This is my rather downbeat assessment having now educated myself on the key metrics and chewed the thing over. I did so last night. Not a pleasant exercise - would vastly prefer to have listed out my top ten Madonna songs - but I felt I had to do it.
There is one other factor which might mean a more optimistic scenario is possible, namely that it seems quite likely that there might be combinations of existing, already known to be safe, drugs which will allow doctors to treat patients more effectively and without recourse to intensive care and ventilators. If that does turn out to be the case, it will change the calculation a lot. Fingers crossed on that one.
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
I sense Pesto is becoming the new Burgon on here. Whatever he says is - per se - an utterance of the utmost risibility.
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
I sense Pesto is becoming the new Burgon on here. Whatever he says is - per se - an utterance of the utmost risibility.
Potentially good rather than scary, if it indicates more people have already got/had it and are immune.
Not so good if you are going the SK route of rigorously testing and tracing the contacts of those with symptoms. Such a method is doomed to ultimate failure in such a scenario although the curve may be spread very long and shallow.
Only so if you assume no treatments become available. That seems unlikely.
Don't worry. I've been informed the BROTH manufacturers are hard at work.
One of the things I have touched on before is the recovery rate in the UK which is stuck at 135 meaning that more than 95% of UK cases are ending in death.
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
It's a totally reasonable question. What's not reasonable is his refusal to shut up for long enough to listen to the answer he's being given, and his obvious preconceived notions that the answer's wrong because it doesn't help his agenda.
I'm not a fan of Peston, but the add hominems do little to excuse the government's extremely poor communication of late.
The media might not be doing their job very well, either - but expecting them to stop doing it is a ridiculous response. (That comment is not directed at you personally.)
Again, it's not the fact that he's doing his job; it's purely the way he's doing it. Just watch the video of him with Van Tam - the poor guy can't finish a single sentence without some kind of interruption from Peston.
The fact that Peston has become the story here is a good indication that he's screwed up.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Depends what you mean...
The number of new infections will likely have been maximised on the day the lockdown was called. The number of cases being admitted to hospital (and being tested positive) is now constant (happens ~10-14 days after lockdown) instead of rising, so there is not a (relative) rise in new cases. We saw the same thing in Italy with the plateau before a gradual decline in new cases, which will hopefully happen in Spain over the weekend.
Lockdown until a vaccination is available for me and Mrs BJ even if that's 2021.
Unfortunately with Carers in day and night even that may not get us through.
Well I hope you both DO make it through. I'm sure you will. And I think that WILL be what we end up doing. Not a lockdown on this scale for that long - since the economic and social damage would be too great - but some sort of targeted regime whereby those at high risk (quite a large group) remain isolated and the rest resume a stripped down version of normality - e.g. they WFH where possible and maintain a degree of social distancing. Schools reopen but pubs and the like probably don't. It's life, Jim, but not as we know it. I can't see any other feasible way forward. The end of this does not come until we have mass immunity. Achieving this by infection costs 3,000,000 hospital admissions and 200,000 lives, unthinkable, therefore the only route to it is via a vaccine, and a vaccine is probably over a year away. This is my rather downbeat assessment having now educated myself on the key metrics and chewed the thing over. I did so last night. Not a pleasant exercise - would vastly prefer to have listed out my top ten Madonna songs - but I felt I had to do it.
There is one other factor which might mean a more optimistic scenario is possible, namely that it seems quite likely that there might be combinations of existing, already known to be safe, drugs which will allow doctors to treat patients more effectively and without recourse to intensive care and ventilators. If that does turn out to be the case, it will change the calculation a lot. Fingers crossed on that one.
Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
There are many cases when, in a specialist area, someone who has read up on it for a couple of days and had some briefings from experts, think he/she has insights.
This is the point where the grad students gets told "no" by the professors. A lot.
The trick is to ask why you are wrong, digest and move froward.
The car manufacturers must be in the absolute shit. I just got an email from PFS UK offering absolutely ridiculously cheap leases on 992s for 2021 delivery. Might weigh in Mrs DA's gold jewelry down and get a 7 speed manual base model with no options.
A 992 is ?
4th gen watercooled 911. 2019 or later.
Ok ty.. what is ridiculously cheap..? i suspect however cheap it may be it will be beyond my wallet a cursury look is 11k down and 1200 plus a month for 4 yrs in a pcp..
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.
Or they massively increase council tax
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central government
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics. If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax rises
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.
If you are bailing out councils tax rises will have to come over the short term or long term, the money will not come from nowhere
The money will come from the Bank of England printing it primarily and government bonds being issues for which interest will be paid. So long as this is short term neither require massive tax rises.
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.
Or they massively increase council tax
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central government
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics. If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax rises
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.
What has been suggested are some of the rational tax changes that should have been made by now anyway, like extending the coverage of NI to match income tax, maybe merging them, lower pension contributions for the well off, closing loopholes on inheritance tax. Id expect to see something like that plus a 1-2% rise in income tax to appease those who think we must raise more tax, rather than out of pure economic judgement.
Potentially good rather than scary, if it indicates more people have already got/had it and are immune.
Not so good if you are going the SK route of rigorously testing and tracing the contacts of those with symptoms. Such a method is doomed to ultimate failure in such a scenario although the curve may be spread very long and shallow.
Only so if you assume no treatments become available. That seems unlikely.
We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
I have noticed little difference in traffic at home - but that is because there is zero drop in tractor movement and apart from them, we have bugger all traffic anyway...
Anyone who cares to simply check the “traffic” function on Google Maps will be able to tell you that there is much much less traffic on London’s roads than normal.
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.
Or they massively increase council tax
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central government
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics. If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax rises
Thanks very much. Although I was hoping that somebody would tell me it isn't.
The only way I can see that is more positive is if the lockdown allows the NHS to cope with the peak of this outbreak, then afterwards we implement a very rigorous and effective Korean style "test and trace" regime which allows us to, other than this, return to normal life.
But I can't see us being up to that task. I think it's beyond our capability. Or let's just say that the evidence that we CAN do it is somewhat lacking.
Again I agree largely with that but I expect the unwind to be slow and hopefully all the time our testing ramps up to near or at the level required
Some hope for lockdown to end soon, but I doubt it will be before mid June or later and by then we should have the experience of other countries like Japan, Italy and Spain who are likely to be ahead in the wind down timetable
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
Sounds like he, a professional communicator, was not communicating his point very well. Not alone in that of course.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Good to hear. The numbers do certainly seem to have stabilised in terms of new cases. It's not good, but the situation will start to improve in a week. I was reading that in northern Italy that the ICUs are under much less strain this week and, indeed, in some of the previously worst affected areas have capacity again. However, lockdowns take time to have an effect...
One slight positive, given the fairly high asymptomatic case numbers that are anticipated, it is possible that a really quite large fraction of the population in Spain will have been infected. For example, say the final tally is 200,000 cases, most of which will have been diagnosed in hospital in people with fairly serious pathologies. If this represents 20% of cases with any symptoms (this was the number reported from China, who did not count asymptomatic positives), then 1,000,000 people will have had symptomatic (mild + severe) cases of Covid-19.
However, if the research from South Korea linked to below is correct (and other countries, including Iceland and the Veneto are consistent, so it's reasonable to think this is not crazy) and 80-90% are completely asymptomatic, then 5-10 million people across Spain might already have been infected (so say 20% of the entire population). If this turns out to be the case (serology will be critical to validate) then a lot of people should have a degree of immunity for the next round, which will partially limit the ability of the virus to spread.
And this is independent of improvements in testing / contract tracing / and hopefully anti-virals, which should further slow down the spread next time
I’ve always thought that the time lag between infection and symptoms meant that the policy of herd immunity and lockdown could actually be pursued in parallel.
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
It's a totally reasonable question. What's not reasonable is his refusal to shut up for long enough to listen to the answer he's being given, and his obvious preconceived notions that the answer's wrong because it doesn't help his agenda.
I'm not a fan of Peston, but the add hominems do little to excuse the government's extremely poor communication of late.
The media might not be doing their job very well, either - but expecting them to stop doing it is a ridiculous response. (That comment is not directed at you personally.)
Again, it's not the fact that he's doing his job; it's purely the way he's doing it. Just watch the video of him with Van Tam - the poor guy can't finish a single sentence without some kind of interruption from Peston.
The fact that Peston has become the story here is a good indication that he's screwed up.
There was a way of framing the question that wouldn't have made Peston look like a tit: "The manufacturer claims* that this test can identify those currently with the disease [despite it being an antibody rather than antigen test]. Can that be true?"
Bits in [] if he wants to show he understands the difference. Prof could then have given exactly the same answer without having to tell Peston he's wrong (as it was, he wasn't really given a choice).
*I've not source for this other then Peston, so don't know whether they actually claim that.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.
I like 'Frontoviks'!! How is Leicester looking at present? Hope the situation is still not too grim there...
The government are doing well at dodging the blame for their failure if the voters think the relevant question is this exceedingly stupid one.
The right question is whether the British government (like other European governments) was too slow in doing less disruptive things like cancelling events, closing pubs, enforcing quarantine requirements on incoming travel and *asking* (not requiring) people to work from home where practical. And the answer to that is, yes, it could have done these things weeks ago, and quite plausibly that would have both avoided the need for the current lockdown and saved a lot of lives.
I must admit to not understanding the logic of this, I must be missing something.
As I see it the lockdown will eventually get the numbers down low enough that tracking and tracing those with the virus will be possible in the way South Korea are doing it.
Waiting until more are infected before the lockdown just means more deaths before that point is reached. The fact that say 0.5% rather than 0.2% of the population have had the virus after makes no real difference in terms of a herd immunity strategy.
So what is the advantage of having a lockdown later?
Because their attitude is that the British people "can't cope", translated as "we have too many people who would gladly trade being able to go shopping/to the pub for saving people's lives".
I'm glad the messaging has been harsher, now we need to move to a more strict lockdown. Too many people are trying to wriggle out of it, given succour by a press whinging about it and (because it happened too late) of the belief that it's up to them to decide when they can do something, not the government.
For the next two weeks, we need to move to the next stage, the one that Spain and Italy had to move to. The people going on about what a terrible attack on their freedom what we currently have is, need to be told in no uncertain terms that we are at war and need to suspend norms, so that we can survive it as fit as possible.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Are you sure the 6120 new cases is for today, or for this morning? When looking at the very latest figures, we need to be sure that the count is for a 24 hour period.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It's a bit like starting a petition for bad things to stop happening, and good things to happen in their place. Uncontroversial but not massively helpful.
We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.
I like 'Frontoviks'!! How is Leicester looking at present? Hope the situation is still not too grim there...
Frontovik is a Russion term for troops who have served in combat. It hasn't got a precise English equivalent.
Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
This is a not unreasonable point to ask about, given that different relative levels of the different antibody types (IgM and IgG specific to the virus) should be present during and after infection: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4574583/
I think IgM antibodies are detectable after a week, and IgG in 3 weeks. IgM is short lived so indicates recent infection, indeed because of the duration of viral shedding, probable continuing infection. Viral PCR swabs can be positive sooner, but have a lot of false negatives.
So that's a qualified yes to Peston's question ?
As far as I understand it (which is not that far!) it is feasible that you might get a positive antibody test from someone still actively infected, if they've been infected long enough for there to be sufficient immune response to pick up. But people will be infected (and infectious) for a period before the antibody test would give a positive result. So it's not very useful (well, pretty useless, really) for determining who is presently infectious, e.g. to decide which NHS staff can go in to work for example.
I await correction from someone who knows more about this...
Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.
Some perhaps, but a lot are being repurposed. Remdesivir is probably the most promising I think, but there are others being currently tested in a huge number of trials. There's a good reason to hope that one of them will have an effect upon the progression of the disease (especially combined with rapid testing, which could enable treatment to be received immediately following diagnosis).
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Depends what you mean...
The number of new infections will likely have been maximised on the day the lockdown was called. The number of cases being admitted to hospital (and being tested positive) is now constant (happens ~10-14 days after lockdown) instead of rising, so there is not a (relative) rise in new cases. We saw the same thing in Italy with the plateau before a gradual decline in new cases, which will hopefully happen in Spain over the weekend.
What I meant is that the number of active cases is still increasing and will be for some time to come. It's just no longer growing exponentially which is obviously the first step. But the time that those who are unfortunate enough to get this badly in hospital is one of the biggest problems because it inevitably means the hospitals cannot cope. It's another reason for having accurate records of those discharged "cured" which we don't have.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.
Hopefully sooner - I'd hope to see hints of a tail off on Monday (similar to Italy).
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after the WA Government's spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
The petition effective before it even began!
Given how events and info lag in all this, there's lots of 'do this' 'we are planning to' which can allow the former to claim credit for forcing government to do things. Though I don't doubt increased public pressure on various issues does have an effect. Greater calls for a lockdown probably enabled the decision to be taken easier than trying it before there was pressure.
Why should he? Journalists should write whatever they like, we are not behind the iron curtain
'Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.'
Beginning to resemble the global warming debate - those with differing opinions must be hounded regardless of any data.
Stocky made the case against extending the lockdown on here yesterday eloquently and although most did not agree with him, it received widespread praise.
Differing opinions are welcomed by the vast majority, ill informed ranting less so.
It's nothing like the global warming debate (the wisdom of a coronavirus lock down is not yet settled science), people paid by fossil fuel billionaires to spread misinformation have been given far too much credence for far too long in the interests of "balance" The nutters some of whom still claim that AIDS isn't caused by HIV are rightly ridiculed and ignored - hardly anybody complains (is it because they don't have a trillion dollar industry behind them that spends more on disinformation than any other?)
I don't want start a fight over global warming (disclosure: it is happening) but I think you have the science the wrong way round there. We know a feck of a lot about human beings, and about viruses, and about infection because we have access to literally billions of each, and lots of completed case studies about outcomes when the two get together. With the earth (a system as complex as the human body) we have a sample of 1 out of a population of 1, with the patient in the early stages of a hitherto unknown disease, and all we can do is model outcomes. Most of the debate about covid is a great deal more settled than that.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
Well, he didn't mention what type, so it could be hundreds of millions of pairs of gloves and nothing else.
I must admit to not understanding the logic of this, I must be missing something.
As I see it the lockdown will eventually get the numbers down low enough that tracking and tracing those with the virus will be possible in the way South Korea are doing it.
Waiting until more are infected before the lockdown just means more deaths before that point is reached. The fact that say 0.5% rather than 0.2% of the population have had the virus after makes no real difference in terms of a herd immunity strategy.
So what is the advantage of having a lockdown later?
The lockdown is to clamp down on community transmission of the virus. In the early stages most of our new cases were due to travel, so a lockdown at that stage wouldn't have made a difference.
It would have prevented community spread in the first place.
We're going to be in the same position after a lockdown regardless of whether it was earlier or later, only doing it later causes more deaths.
But, with containment failed what do you do at the end of your lockdown?
We can't do permanent lockdown. What we are doing is as much lockdown as is required to keep the spread of the virus within NHS capacity - and working to increase that capacity.
We still are getting visits, this morning, from Carers who have zero PPE. Even the aprons they have had up to now have run out. One of them was told by her manager that masks will not arrive for 7 weeks.
How do you constructively criticise that?
That is why recommending the public wears masks in public is premature. There needs to be priority by risk group, and care workers for vulnerable people need second priority, after frontoviks.
I like 'Frontoviks'!! How is Leicester looking at present? Hope the situation is still not too grim there...
Frontovik is a Russion term for troops who have served in combat. It hasn't got a precise English equivalent.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
One of the things I have touched on before is the recovery rate in the UK which is stuck at 135 meaning that more than 95% of UK cases are ending in death.
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.
Isn’t it also a measure of actual case load on the nhs and of how effective treatment is?
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.
Spain is not quite as bleak as the media are trying to paint it, on a three day average new cases are flatlining at 8,200 approx and whilst deaths are still going up that is to be expected for a few days yet. Valencia day on day increase in new cases is 5% the lowest for a while. I see no sign of any large scale desire to break the lockdown, there are a declining number of fines etc being issued. Locally it’s becoming a highlight when the bin Larry comes round each night and the traffic has dropped by 95% on the road near me.
Just over 6k new cases today is not good. Spain seems out of the exponential growth period but it has not yet reached a peak.
Where did you get the 6k figure from? The figures on RTVE were 8,200 if you look at the graph from 25/3 then you can draw a horizontal straight line through it. I would hazard a guess and say that all being well they will have started slowly tailing off in a week.
6,120 is their exact figure. We had this issue a couple of days ago. There are clearly some discrepancies in the way that the numbers are collated.
Worldometer add the numbers from Catalunya in the evening (they are published around 10pm); these figures get folded into the daily Spain-wide updates.
I can see a major central London road from my window, it is normally at 5 mph and full throughout a working day and most of the evening.
Since the lockdown including today if I look I can normally but not always see at least one vehicle but the traffic is flowing very freely and Id say 90%+ down on normal.
And when I go for a run/walk I have noticed most buses have zero passengers, just the driver (admittedly those are timed to avoid whats left of rush hour).
TfL and other bus and train companies may need new subsidies before long because they are running services on almost no fare revenue.
Local govts generally will certainly need bailouts as well as businesses. Ive not been paying much attention on that front but it will need to be done if it hasnt already.
Or they massively increase council tax
Those have just been set and aiui are subject to caps on increases? Business rates are decimated, as is transport income. They will need bailouts from the centre.
Government could just end the caps this year, let councils take the flack for tax rises not just central government
No, it is not possible. The maths of this situation are that the costs are going to be paid back over the next 20-30 years. People in work would not be able to pay the council tax rise that would be needed, let alone those who have lost their jobs or were struggling before.
Fortunately the people at the Treasury are not so wedded to ideology as some, and will look at it pragmatically and mathematically.
So they can just pay the massive hike in income tax and VAT instead?
You don't understand either politics or economics at all.
There won't be a massive hike in tax.
No need to be patronising or rude, I have A grade A levels in both politics and economics. If central government had to bail out out all local councils then income tax and VAT would have to rise whether sharply in the short term or stretched out longer term
There's no if about it, central government will have to and it will be stretched out long term - but there won't be massive tax rises to pay for it.
If they have to bail out every council there will be tax rises
Unlikely though I note the subtle drop of the word "massive". We will be trying to get the economy off the floor - you don't do that with tax rises.
If you are bailing out councils tax rises will have to come over the short term or long term, the money will not come from nowhere
Money does come from nowhere. That's how money works in an economy unlike a household.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.
There is a global shortage of equipment. Every nation in the world is seeking far more of it than they'd ever normally require.
One of the things I have touched on before is the recovery rate in the UK which is stuck at 135 meaning that more than 95% of UK cases are ending in death.
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.
Isn’t it also a measure of actual case load on the nhs and of how effective treatment is?
I would bow to the experts such as @Foxy on that, there may be better ways of measuring it such as the percentage of ICUs being used, but yes, it should give us a rough idea.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
Other than all the comments reproaching it.
I haven't seen much reproach, and any who do question any part of the Government's handling of the crisis, are shot down in flames by the PB aerial tag team.
Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.
Some perhaps, but a lot are being repurposed. Remdesivir is probably the most promising I think, but there are others being currently tested in a huge number of trials. There's a good reason to hope that one of them will have an effect upon the progression of the disease (especially combined with rapid testing, which could enable treatment to be received immediately following diagnosis).
That's slightly different. I was referring to the possibility of new drugs that healthy people, with no infection, would take to prevent them getting hit by the virus (or hit badly), in the same way that people take anti-malarial prophylactics. In this case it could for example be a drug with a very specific effect of interfering with the process by which the virus latches on the ACE-2 receptors.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.
There will probably be political errors to examine in this whole situation, but given what is happening problems seem more likely to be in emergency planning protocols, institutional issues and matters of supply etc. As you say no politician will not be trying to do as much as can be done, there's not likely to be political factors at play there, so I suspect any politically driven issues will be difficult to spot until we are out of this.
I'm at ~ 5 known/suspected cases out of my facebook friends and colleagues/partners. That's a group of approx 520 people so 5/520 = 1.2%. All mild or recovered cases thankfully.
How are everyone else's acquaintances numbers looking ?
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
Well, he didn't mention what type, so it could be hundreds of millions of pairs of gloves and nothing else.
I have it on terrible authority that it's actually just half a billion left-handed gloves.
Or the rapid availability of (expensive, and in development) antibody prophylactics against the virus and/or a fast developed RNA vaccine (much cheaper, but likely to take longer), which could be used alongside track and trace on all contacts, or likely contacts of the infected.
Yes, the prophylactic route is potentially very interesting. From what I've read, there seems to be a very good understanding of how this virus works and some promising avenues for disrupting its effect on our bodies. That may well lead to some effective prophylactics, but presumably those would be brand new drugs and therefore take some time to get approved and into production.
Some perhaps, but a lot are being repurposed. Remdesivir is probably the most promising I think, but there are others being currently tested in a huge number of trials. There's a good reason to hope that one of them will have an effect upon the progression of the disease (especially combined with rapid testing, which could enable treatment to be received immediately following diagnosis).
That's slightly different. I was referring to the possibility of new drugs that healthy people, with no infection, would take to prevent them getting hit by the virus (or hit badly), in the same way that people take anti-malarial prophylactics. In this case it could for example be a drug with a very specific effect of interfering with the process by which the virus latches on the ACE-2 receptors.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
Well, he didn't mention what type, so it could be hundreds of millions of pairs of gloves and nothing else.
I have it on terrible authority that it's actually just half a billion left-handed gloves.
The reasoning behind the lockdown was explained at the beginning. It is to slow new cases (flatten the curve) so that the NHS is not overwhelmed and therefore those infected or ill due to other causes have a decent chance of survival and the benefit of more experience in dealing with the disease. Even if widespread antibody testing does not become available the logic is that the lockdown can be relaxed when hospital admissions fall and the models show sufficient treatment headroom. Relaxation of the lockdown I reckon will be incremental and differential (maintained longer for vulnerable and direct carers). It might also have to be increased again if admissions surge. Lots of testing helps (particularly for NHS headroom by reducing staff absences) and for verifying the models but does not change the logic.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.
This is true and in any case any finger pointing should be directed at Hunt for suppressing the 2016 pandemic report and any number of politicians from that and previous governments who failed to take this threat seriously. Unfortunately it is always more sexy to take the current lot to task.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
While I appreciate the gesture, no petition can magic up supplies.
Absolutely true although registering a concern might push governments into greater action.
Haven't they been delivering this equipment already at an incredible rate? The PM mentioned something about hundreds of millions of pieces of kit.
Here in Wales we have a distinct lack of masks and visors. Testing too has collapsed after a spat with HoffmanLaRoche. I am not getting at the Westminster Government which I can see from PB is beyond reproach.
Other than all the comments reproaching it.
I haven't seen much reproach, and any do question any part of the Government's handling of the crisis, are shot down in flames by the PB aerial tag team.
Then you' ve missed all those comments about how we were late in putting in the lockdown, that it should be harder, that testing has not been sufficient, that PPE has not been provided adequately... and so on
There's been reproach. Minority reproach? Probably, but like people openly saying they are not allowed to openly say things, it's not the case that they have been above reproach even if a majority are not reproaching or even object to reproaching. That many or even most don't doesn't mean it doesn't happen.
Just signed the change.org 'provide PPE to all frontline staff' petition.
I'm sure that will help. Maybe Matt will get off his bed of sick and hand over all the boxes of PPE that he has been secretly squirreling away in the hope that he could re-sell them to that fetish site that was linked to here the other day.
It is not just Matt. Here in Wales the failing Assembly Government needs to pull its finger out. In England things may be going much better.
I frankly refuse to believe that anyone in authority anywhere, whether the Tories in England, Labour in Wales or the SNP in Scotland is not moving heaven and earth to get as many tests and as much PPE to the front line as possible. It's just inconceivable. All of us wish there was more but blaming politicians of any stripe for not achieving the impossible is unproductive and pointless.
Philip Lee explains this was war gamed two years ago. Did the results not get past the Severn Bridge until late May 2020?
I'm at ~ 5 known/suspected cases out of my facebook friends and colleagues/partners. That's a group of approx 520 people so 5/520 = 1.2%. All mild or recovered cases thankfully.
How are everyone else's acquaintances numbers looking ?
Why should he? Journalists should write whatever they like, we are not behind the iron curtain
'Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.'
Beginning to resemble the global warming debate - those with differing opinions must be hounded regardless of any data.
Stocky made the case against extending the lockdown on here yesterday eloquently and although most did not agree with him, it received widespread praise.
Differing opinions are welcomed by the vast majority, ill informed ranting less so.
It's nothing like the global warming debate (the wisdom of a coronavirus lock down is not yet settled science), people paid by fossil fuel billionaires to spread misinformation have been given far too much credence for far too long in the interests of "balance" The nutters some of whom still claim that AIDS isn't caused by HIV are rightly ridiculed and ignored - hardly anybody complains (is it because they don't have a trillion dollar industry behind them that spends more on disinformation than any other?)
I don't want start a fight over global warming (disclosure: it is happening) but I think you have the science the wrong way round there. We know a feck of a lot about human beings, and about viruses, and about infection because we have access to literally billions of each, and lots of completed case studies about outcomes when the two get together. With the earth (a system as complex as the human body) we have a sample of 1 out of a population of 1, with the patient in the early stages of a hitherto unknown disease, and all we can do is model outcomes. Most of the debate about covid is a great deal more settled than that.
I don't want to start a fight about it either (disclosure: I agree) but the policies of lockdown are a huge quantum leap from anything that has ever been contemplated in terms of reduction of carbon emissions. If the effect of massive reductions in flights, traffic, manufacturing, vessel movement etc are measurable then we will surely have the definitive answer as to whether anthropomorphic global warming is a thing.
Comments
A first.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176783/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-china-treatment-cytokine-storm-syndrome
Its been at this figure for quite a while and the authorities clearly have no interest in recording recoveries. I think that this is a mistake. Firstly, people need to know that the vast majority of any age who get this disease live. Secondly, the number of people who are immune in society is important and will become incredibly so when we want to go back to work. Thirdly, it gives us a better idea of the pressure on ICUs etc, if we measure those that are being discharged.
My guess is that the government thought that this would be superseded by the antigen test which would be available more widely and give a better picture of where we are with herd immunity but, like other forms of testing, there has been a longer gap between the aspiration and the delivery than was hoped. It may now be too late but for reasons (1) and (3) at least I think this information should be updated.
The fact that Peston has become the story here is a good indication that he's screwed up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0-2XxgHIXk
The number of new infections will likely have been maximised on the day the lockdown was called. The number of cases being admitted to hospital (and being tested positive) is now constant (happens ~10-14 days after lockdown) instead of rising, so there is not a (relative) rise in new cases. We saw the same thing in Italy with the plateau before a gradual decline in new cases, which will hopefully happen in Spain over the weekend.
This is the point where the grad students gets told "no" by the professors. A lot.
The trick is to ask why you are wrong, digest and move froward.
Some hope for lockdown to end soon, but I doubt it will be before mid June or later and by then we should have the experience of other countries like Japan, Italy and Spain who are likely to be ahead in the wind down timetable
Hope we dont surpass both
Bits in [] if he wants to show he understands the difference. Prof could then have given exactly the same answer without having to tell Peston he's wrong (as it was, he wasn't really given a choice).
*I've not source for this other then Peston, so don't know whether they actually claim that.
The right question is whether the British government (like other European governments) was too slow in doing less disruptive things like cancelling events, closing pubs, enforcing quarantine requirements on incoming travel and *asking* (not requiring) people to work from home where practical. And the answer to that is, yes, it could have done these things weeks ago, and quite plausibly that would have both avoided the need for the current lockdown and saved a lot of lives.
At that rate they will all have had one test by 2022
I'm glad the messaging has been harsher, now we need to move to a more strict lockdown. Too many people are trying to wriggle out of it, given succour by a press whinging about it and (because it happened too late) of the belief that it's up to them to decide when they can do something, not the government.
For the next two weeks, we need to move to the next stage, the one that Spain and Italy had to move to. The people going on about what a terrible attack on their freedom what we currently have is, need to be told in no uncertain terms that we are at war and need to suspend norms, so that we can survive it as fit as possible.
That testing rate will see a huge increase over the next 14 days
I await correction from someone who knows more about this...
FFS can those organising this go off and run a brewery instead
We will be succeeding when testing numbers increase faster than cases increase.
Given how events and info lag in all this, there's lots of 'do this' 'we are planning to' which can allow the former to claim credit for forcing government to do things. Though I don't doubt increased public pressure on various issues does have an effect. Greater calls for a lockdown probably enabled the decision to be taken easier than trying it before there was pressure.
Is there a petition yet demanding that the virus cease spreading forthwith?
6,120 is their exact figure. We had this issue a couple of days ago. There are clearly some discrepancies in the way that the numbers are collated.
We can't do permanent lockdown. What we are doing is as much lockdown as is required to keep the spread of the virus within NHS capacity - and working to increase that capacity.
How are everyone else's acquaintances numbers looking ?
There's been reproach. Minority reproach? Probably, but like people openly saying they are not allowed to openly say things, it's not the case that they have been above reproach even if a majority are not reproaching or even object to reproaching. That many or even most don't doesn't mean it doesn't happen.