The problem with PPE, is that it is inadequate.the long sleeve protective gowns that we see in use in other countries are not in the stockpile, neither are there enough eye protection or FFP3 masks.
Do you know where the NHS PPE is made? If it is not the UK, then ramping up output is going to be very difficult if not impossible.
One factor in Malaysia makes an alarming proportion of the world's PPE.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
The delivery of Sunak's packages, which in principle are very good, may also prove to be slow, difficult and cumbersome.
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
At the end of all this, we want people still to be in jobs, because that will be the quickest way back to economic recovery. The government's package aims to achieve that. UBI doesn't.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
What’s the point of lockdown if we keep reintroducing new infection from abroad?
Realistically who is actually travelling now? It will just be people coming back home. No-one is coming to look at Stonehenge, visit closed offices in the city, sample our closed restaurants or go shopping in a closed Bicester village.
Should be simple to quarantine then. There are currently nearly 20 aircraft airborne en-route to Heathrow from the USA - the global COVID-19 hot spot, with a dozen already landed.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
I'm not so sure. The US approach, while crude, is at least simple and easier to manage, and less likely to have holes for people to fall through. Our government's set of schemes come with a lot of small print and a lot of admin, and tons of holes. By June when the small business payments come to be made, the media will be full of hard luck tales and sad cases.
Is the US approach really simpler? Lots of state aid and forgivable loans. Having filled in some US tax forms I would be quite surprised if it is actually simpler for businesses?
The UBI part, that is simpler, is only $1200 one off so miles less than the up to £2500 per month.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
You must surely see that Government over-promising - including by your hero himself - have played directly into this story.
I do not have heros at my age but do accept the testing promises have been undelivered so far
However, my issue is with those seeking to undermine public trust in a government fighting a worldwide crisis of health and economics for political reasons
"Nomura says there is mounting evidence that China’s leaders no longer believe their own story and are bracing for a second wave. Inland Sichuan has postponed the reopening of schools. Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have tightened their quarantine rules for travelers. Chinese virologist Yang Zhangqiu says there could be 200,000 live cases right now. "
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
Whether to go for per capita or absolute numbers is debatable. The virus doesn't care how big your population is, but it's a key metric for probability of catching it within a country.
Good morning, PB. I hope today will be more even-tempered than yesterday.
People who are worried that we are still allowing incoming flights are, I think, misunderstanding something. There are, it seems, hundreds of thousands of active cases in the community at the moment. It really doesn't matter if a few hundred more are imported. The trajectory of our epidemic is not materially changed.
Now if the lockdown works* then in a few weeks or months there may only be a few hundred active cases in the community; then it really does matter that we don't import a few hundred more. That's when mandatory quarantine, contact tracing, and follow-up testing really matter.
*as pointed out above, a population R0 less than 1 means that the number of cases should fall, but if say 10% of the population is still working and exposed to risk such that their R0 is greater than 1 within themselves (even if the overall R0 is less than 1) then, within that sub-population, we would still see an exponential rise. The basic theory is that this would continue until that subpopulation attains herd immunity. It's really important that non-home workers don't infect each other.
The government is clearly doing its best, but has made mistakes. It is good to see backbenchers (Hunt) and the media hold it to account best they can. They have improved the government response. But again the media make mistakes, but they too are doing their best. We need to drop Trumpian language and language of betrayal.
At the start of the crisis the government had problems with communication and was slow to react. Now the biggest problem is that reality does not live up to the rhetoric.
Despite successes in other areas, press releases on appropriate PPE, Tests and ventilator have simply not materialised on the ground and people are still at risk. The government I am sure are again doing their best, but they either need to revise their statements in the face of the new reality and ‘level with the British people’ or find a way to close the gap pronto. We are reaching the peak of the crisis.
Unless we can transfer production, or use alternative designs. And if it turns out that a UK-made mask or gown costs twice as much then so bloody what?
If there are no UK factories, cost is not an issue. Building and equipping a factory just takes a long time.
They need to get rid of all the armchair idiots from the Lobby, and replace them with medical and science journalists who can hold a sensible conversation with those on the front line.
Why does the BBC have to send Laura K every day, when they have a number of science experts who must be pulling their hair out at the level of stupidity on display? Ditto the newspapers. They stand a far better chance of getting a story.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
I'm not so sure. The US approach, while crude, is at least simple and easier to manage, and less likely to have holes for people to fall through. Our government's set of schemes come with a lot of small print and a lot of admin, and tons of holes. By June when the small business payments come to be made, the media will be full of hard luck tales and sad cases.
Is the US approach really simpler? Lots of state aid and forgivable loans. Having filled in some US tax forms I would be quite surprised if it is actually simpler for businesses?
The UBI part, that is simpler, is only $1200 one off so miles less than the up to £2500 per month.
The UBI was offered back when Trump was talking about a lockdown until Easter. What time period it is supposed to cover was unclear?
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
There was interesting analysis by canton/region which suggested it had spread much faster in the Italian parts, re-enforcing the idea that cultural norms and greetings are part of why it spread in the med quicker and wider.
The lack of PPE is scandalous given the government's own pandemic preparedness plan (which everyone on here was sharing back when they were saying how brilliant and advanced the government's handling of this was) meant that it was essential that every hospital was full stocked and beyond.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
The delivery of Sunak's packages, which in principle are very good, may also prove to be slow, difficult and cumbersome.
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
Sunak has had a good war but he can't save every job. I think air travel will suffer past the current crisis too. Scorecards: A Sunak B Johnson, Hancock, Give C Raab D Jenrick E Sharma
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
I'm not so sure. The US approach, while crude, is at least simple and easier to manage, and less likely to have holes for people to fall through. Our government's set of schemes come with a lot of small print and a lot of admin, and tons of holes. By June when the small business payments come to be made, the media will be full of hard luck tales and sad cases.
Is the US approach really simpler? Lots of state aid and forgivable loans. Having filled in some US tax forms I would be quite surprised if it is actually simpler for businesses?
The UBI part, that is simpler, is only $1200 one off so miles less than the up to £2500 per month.
The UBI was offered back when Trump was talking about a lockdown until Easter. What time period it is supposed to cover was unclear?
If it doesnt have a timescale perhaps it is too simple and easy to manage.
They need to get rid of all the armchair idiots from the Lobby, and replace them with medical and science journalists who can hold a sensible conversation with those on the front line.
Just getting rid of Peston would improve the nation's conversation on its own.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
Good morning, PB. I hope today will be more even-tempered than yesterday.
People who are worried that we are still allowing incoming flights are, I think, misunderstanding something. There are, it seems, hundreds of thousands of active cases in the community at the moment. It really doesn't matter if a few hundred more are imported. The trajectory of our epidemic is not materially changed.
Now if the lockdown works* then in a few weeks or months there may only be a few hundred active cases in the community; then it really does matter that we don't import a few hundred more. That's when mandatory quarantine, contact tracing, and follow-up testing really matter.
*as pointed out above, a population R0 less than 1 means that the number of cases should fall, but if say 10% of the population is still working and exposed to risk such that their R0 is greater than 1 within themselves (even if the overall R0 is less than 1) then, within that sub-population, we would still see an exponential rise. The basic theory is that this would continue until that subpopulation attains herd immunity. It's really important that non-home workers don't infect each other.
--AS
Yes but we should remember that R0 might not be uniform across the country. Beware of averages bearing gifts!
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
It's Belgium that is the most worrying - on the excellent chart provided yesterday by @Andy_Cooke they are tracking higher than Spain on per capita deaths.
More cases in Switzerland will mostly be a function of more testing.
Thanks for the clip of Peston. At last, someone has treated him like the excited seven-year-old he is, and not before time.
Not everything is perfect and there have been some loose ends and areas of controversy. But this is a new scenario for everyone. There have been some war-gaming performed but as the saying goes, when the first battle starts many plans go out the window.
The scientific advice may be arguable, but it will at least be scientific and will adapt to circumstances. Journalists need for a story, any story, will not adapt.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
What’s the point of lockdown if we keep reintroducing new infection from abroad?
Realistically who is actually travelling now? It will just be people coming back home. No-one is coming to look at Stonehenge, visit closed offices in the city, sample our closed restaurants or go shopping in a closed Bicester village.
Should be simple to quarantine then. There are currently nearly 20 aircraft airborne en-route to Heathrow from the USA - the global COVID-19 hot spot, with a dozen already landed.
Nothing against quarantine if the govt thinks its worthwhile but as others have pointed out, the average person arriving at Heathrow from abroad is of the same order of magnitude to have it as the average person in the country. It doesnt achieve much, and is probably a waste of resources.
If and when we get the numbers here right down, that would be a good time to introduce testing and quarantine for arrivals from abroad.
People who are worried that we are still allowing incoming flights are, I think, misunderstanding something. There are, it seems, hundreds of thousands of active cases in the community at the moment. It really doesn't matter if a few hundred more are imported. The trajectory of our epidemic is not materially changed. --AS
I agree, but it does suggest that the open-borders meme still has ascendency in Whitehall.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
Ok both testing and PPE they appear to have made the cardinal mistake of overpromising somewhat, so some of the fault is with the comms. On PPE the failure to get it done is a scandal in the making.
The problem with PPE, is that it is inadequate.the long sleeve protective gowns that we see in use in other countries are not in the stockpile, neither are there enough eye protection or FFP3 masks. We have plenty of regular surgical masks, gloves and aprons, but these are not enough protection for suspect cases.
Did you see that footage from the hospital in Southern Italy the other day? Those treating the patients were dressed in something approaching a space suit. Those who were not so dressed were not allowed to cross red line or tape drawn through the hospital. There were literally armed guards in the corridors to enforce this. Nothing went directly to or more particularly from the infected patient to the "safe" side. Infections of hospital staff were at zero.
It made our arguments about paper masks and lengths of sleeve look amateur hour to be honest.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
I know Wales NHS is falling well short on testing but to be honest I do not seek to accuse anyone, it is an intense and difficult position for those in power
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
Ok both testing and PPE they appear to have made the cardinal mistake of overpromising somewhat, so some of the fault is with the comms. On PPE the failure to get it done is a scandal in the making.
The problem with PPE, is that it is inadequate.the long sleeve protective gowns that we see in use in other countries are not in the stockpile, neither are there enough eye protection or FFP3 masks. We have plenty of regular surgical masks, gloves and aprons, but these are not enough protection for suspect cases.
Situation in one German hospital : Everyone in the hospital staff and patients wears a surgical mask. Staff in contact with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 patients wear FFP2 masks and aprons Staff involved in things like intubation wear FFP2 masks long-sleeved gowns and eye protection.
Used FFP2 masks are being kept for possible reuse. Talk is of steaming them, although according to a recent bmj letter dry heat at 75 degrees for 30 minutes is better. It also suggests using a cleanable face shield, or a surgical mask, over the mask to protect it.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
The delivery of Sunak's packages, which in principle are very good, may also prove to be slow, difficult and cumbersome.
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
Sunak has had a good war but he can't save every job. I think air travel will suffer past the current crisis too. Scorecards: A Sunak B Johnson, Hancock, Give C Raab D Jenrick E Sharma
Rather harsh on Jenrick. He and Gove both a C.
No idea why Sharma was put forward. BEIS/President of COP26 is hardly at the forefront of a health emergency.
Unless we can transfer production, or use alternative designs. And if it turns out that a UK-made mask or gown costs twice as much then so bloody what?
If there are no UK factories, cost is not an issue. Building and equipping a factory just takes a long time.
No. Sewing gowns cannot be compared with retooling a production line so Ford can churn out BMWs (and that is not really what MMM was about anyway). We have UK factories and many of them are idle because of the lockdown. There may be issues with tooling or sourcing components in some cases but not in all.
Reflecting on the figures, the people who are dying now were infected a fortnight ago.
50,000 infections a day when people were still out on the lash and having trips to the seaside.
An earlier lockdown would have saved hundreds of lives.
But it's the same argument. It would have deferred infection, not prevented it. This remains controversial but when you see what is happening in Japan now it does garner some support.
Beautiful morning folks. Having promised myself I'd have the body of a god by the end of this lock down, I've done zero workouts. Hopefully the god in question won't be Buddha.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
The delivery of Sunak's packages, which in principle are very good, may also prove to be slow, difficult and cumbersome.
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
Sunak has had a good war but he can't save every job. I think air travel will suffer past the current crisis too. Scorecards: A Sunak B Johnson, Hancock, Give C Raab D Jenrick E Sharma
Rather harsh on Jenrick. He and Gove both a C.
No idea why Sharma was put forward. BEIS/President of COP26 is hardly at the forefront of a health emergency.
Sharma was clearly put forward because no one more senior was willing to do it on a day they had no answers.
Yes but we should remember that R0 might not be uniform across the country. Beware of averages bearing gifts!
Indeed, that's what I meant.
On another matter, here's an interesting thought experiment. After the first wave is said and done, consider two hypotheticals: that we started the lockdown a week earlier, or that we ended it a week later. Which saved more lives?
We won't know the answer until we have the benefit of hindsight and a lot of analysis, but I think it's quite likely the the end of the lockdown will matter more than the start. Of course it's not a zero-sum game and one would save most lives by extended lockdown at the start and end, but if the experts were working on the assumption that society would only tolerate x weeks of lockdown, then starting a week later than some commentators were demanding may have been the better option.
People who are worried that we are still allowing incoming flights are, I think, misunderstanding something. There are, it seems, hundreds of thousands of active cases in the community at the moment. It really doesn't matter if a few hundred more are imported. The trajectory of our epidemic is not materially changed. --AS
I agree, but it does suggest that the open-borders meme still has ascendency in Whitehall.
Or that they are worrying about sorting out the real problems rather than pandering to the something must be done brigade?
People who are worried that we are still allowing incoming flights are, I think, misunderstanding something. There are, it seems, hundreds of thousands of active cases in the community at the moment. It really doesn't matter if a few hundred more are imported. The trajectory of our epidemic is not materially changed. --AS
I agree, but it does suggest that the open-borders meme still has ascendency in Whitehall.
But the Brexiters are in charge - we're all supposed to be Little Englanders
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
The delivery of Sunak's packages, which in principle are very good, may also prove to be slow, difficult and cumbersome.
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
Sunak has had a good war but he can't save every job. I think air travel will suffer past the current crisis too. Scorecards: A Sunak B Johnson, Hancock, Give C Raab D Jenrick E Sharma
I wasn't suggesting he could or indeed will be able to save jobs. The economic aftermath will look like the Somme. My point is by using sophisticated tools to overcome short term problems, and relying on high street banks to do the right thing, if delivery is slow Sunak's lustre may (unfairly) begin to fade.
The notion of UBI, so despised on PB, would at least have delivered a basic income quickly to those who need it most. Where the figure would have been set, was the gift of government in order to reduce the overall spend. IDS among others thought that would render us all lazy so politically it was never a goer in the Tory Party.
As to your league table, I suspect the names will ascend and descend as the weeks progress. Raab, Jenrick and Sharma are only having poor campaigns because due to BoJo's succumbing to the virus, they are taking Boris' spanking for him.
Unless we can transfer production, or use alternative designs. And if it turns out that a UK-made mask or gown costs twice as much then so bloody what?
If there are no UK factories, cost is not an issue. Building and equipping a factory just takes a long time.
No. Sewing gowns cannot be compared with retooling a production line so Ford can churn out BMWs (and that is not really what MMM was about anyway). We have UK factories and many of them are idle because of the lockdown. There may be issues with tooling or sourcing components in some cases but not in all.
Completely agree. There was a whole series where Mary Portas 'revived manufacturing' by taking on mothballed factories - I watched one where she developed knickers. Everything in the factory was ready to go - training the workers would take a little time. I suspect there are hundreds such facilities in the UK.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
I know Wales NHS is falling well short on testing but to be honest I do not seek to accuse anyone, it is an intense and difficult position for those in power
I suspect in your heart of hearts, you know the situation is much, much worse in Wales than England.
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
There was interesting analysis by canton/region which suggested it had spread much faster in the Italian parts, re-enforcing the idea that cultural norms and greetings are part of why it spread in the med quicker and wider.
The case numbers are high because they test lots.
Maybe. Could also be people crossing the border between Lombardy and Ticino all the time, whereas to get to the German speaking part you have to go through the Gotthard Tunnel /Pass. Plus you have to speak Swiss German when you get there.
Yes but we should remember that R0 might not be uniform across the country. Beware of averages bearing gifts!
Indeed, that's what I meant.
On another matter, here's an interesting thought experiment. After the first wave is said and done, consider two hypotheticals: that we started the lockdown a week earlier, or that we ended it a week later. Which saved more lives?
We won't know the answer until we have the benefit of hindsight and a lot of analysis, but I think it's quite likely the the end of the lockdown will matter more than the start. Of course it's not a zero-sum game and one would save most lives by extended lockdown at the start and end, but if the experts were working on the assumption that society would only tolerate x weeks of lockdown, then starting a week later than some commentators were demanding may have been the better option.
--AS
But here we run up against lack of testing. Without that we depend on Matt Hancock sticking a finger in the air. If we could test, then we'd be able to selectively reopen rather than choosing an all-or-nothing date based on Professor Ferguson's computer printout.
On testing, I'm a little confused as to why the progress has been slow. The efforts of various journalists have not managed to enlighten me.
Roche and others have tests that can be done 800+ times per machine in an 8 hour shift. So how do we end up with a capacity of just 8000/day?
Quite. Some intelligent questions to the brains in charge might have elicited an answer as to where the actual issues lie - but there were no intelligent questions from the likes of Peston.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
I know Wales NHS is falling well short on testing but to be honest I do not seek to accuse anyone, it is an intense and difficult position for those in power
I really don't see the point of accusing or moaning at people who are not achieving something that is beyond their power. If they have been dilatory or failed to place orders or failed to instruct steps that would have ramped up production earlier fair enough, criticise away. But if the problem is, as Gove said and was proven to be correct on, that there is an international shortage of the materials needed to make the tests its just a bit silly.
I am concerned that our isolation policies are falling behind the curve and need updating in light of the new information. Failure to act on this now would be a legitimate basis for criticism. The idea of medical staff who have recovered but are still shedding the virus returning to the front line in the belief that they are immune and don't need to be that careful around patients is quite scary.
Beautiful morning folks. Having promised myself I'd have the body of a god by the end of this lock down, I've done zero workouts. Hopefully the god in question won't be Buddha.
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
It's Belgium that is the most worrying - on the excellent chart provided yesterday by @Andy_Cooke they are tracking higher than Spain on per capita deaths.
More cases in Switzerland will mostly be a function of more testing.
Switzerland is not good. Test numbers are very hard to read as we know and often better to look at death numbers. Switzerland is a little bit larger than Scotland yet has 550 versus 80 deaths here. The lock down came too slow, they left the borders open with Italy especially too long and they are struggling to get tests despite Roche being Swiss.
One story from Switzerland is that they bought a plane load of PPE from China. The plane stopped in Germany on the way to Switzerland and was impounded by the Germans for 3 days before being released. Anyone who is hoping that the Germans will supply the chemicals, respirators and PPE we need is betting on a long shot.
Beautiful morning folks. Having promised myself I'd have the body of a god by the end of this lock down, I've done zero workouts. Hopefully the god in question won't be Buddha.
The Buddha wasn't a god. And at one stage in his life he almost starved himself to death. So I hope your body doesn't resemble his at that point.
They need to get rid of all the armchair idiots from the Lobby, and replace them with medical and science journalists who can hold a sensible conversation with those on the front line.
Why does the BBC have to send Laura K every day, when they have a number of science experts who must be pulling their hair out at the level of stupidity on display? Ditto the newspapers. They stand a far better chance of getting a story.
Yes it does seem strange that science journalists are not more prominent. I guess it's a hierarchy thing. Laura/Peston are top dog so it's ridiculous to expect someone else might question senior politicians.
Meh. We are approaching the peak period (further away than wed like depending on rate of increase) so I'd expect now to be when public and press get madder.
At least the complaints are starting to be ones of substance.
The lack of PPE is scandalous given the government's own pandemic preparedness plan (which everyone on here was sharing back when they were saying how brilliant and advanced the government's handling of this was) meant that it was essential that every hospital was full stocked and beyond.
They obviously stockpiled the wrong stuff. Why, we will have to find out in due course, although the obvious suggestion would be price. Coupled with failure of the supply chain, which is still affecting the food supply as well so not just a Government problem. Just-in-time just isn't working.
That’s comparing the average of one disease with the record high of the other, doesn’t sit right with me.
That's a fair point. Equally, there comes a point of a fast-growing contagion where the comparison can be made (and note, these are only the presently-confirmed cases, which are almost certainly greatly understated). If there were an extra zero on the Covid-19 daily number, few would quibble. Looking at that trajectory, we may be at that point soon enough.
"Nomura says there is mounting evidence that China’s leaders no longer believe their own story and are bracing for a second wave. Inland Sichuan has postponed the reopening of schools. Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have tightened their quarantine rules for travelers. Chinese virologist Yang Zhangqiu says there could be 200,000 live cases right now. "
But questioning the Chinese story is racist! The WHO gave them a clean bill of health!
Until China comes clean over the scale of this we should absolutely cut them out of the world economic order. It's time.
Beautiful morning folks. Having promised myself I'd have the body of a god by the end of this lock down, I've done zero workouts. Hopefully the god in question won't be Buddha.
The Buddha wasn't a god. And at one stage in his life he almost starved himself to death. So I hope your body doesn't resemble his at that point.
Interesting article on why, contrary to all historical evidence, Chinese buddhas are fat:
Does anyone know why I can't log in on Chrome on my laptop (Windows 10)? I log in but it just doesn't seem to save it. I can do it on Edge or my Android mobile on Chrome.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
I know Wales NHS is falling well short on testing but to be honest I do not seek to accuse anyone, it is an intense and difficult position for those in power
I suspect in your heart of hearts, you know the situation is much, much worse in Wales than England.
Surprisingly not so sure.
I have had a series of medical issues since January and the most recent requires an ultrasound scan. Throughout the six weeks I have been able to receive doctor and nurse phone triage and surgery appointments
The doctor who has ordered the ultrasound said that there is still availability and at present we have not been hit like other parts of the country, but she expects that to change over the next few weeks
That’s comparing the average of one disease with the record high of the other, doesn’t sit right with me.
I suppose it depends how long the world remains at the current level of death. The charts on Worldometer are not encouraging. There is no deviation in the upward direction of the totals to date. I fear many, many countries are either failing to record these deaths or still at an early stage in infections.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
I know Wales NHS is falling well short on testing but to be honest I do not seek to accuse anyone, it is an intense and difficult position for those in power
I suspect in your heart of hearts, you know the situation is much, much worse in Wales than England.
Surprisingly not so sure.
I have had a series of medical issues since January and the most recent requires an ultrasound scan. Throughout the six weeks I have been able to receive doctor and nurse phone triage and surgery appointments
The doctor who has ordered the ultrasound said that there is still availability and at present we have not been hit like other parts of the country, but she expects that to change over the next few weeks
But here we run up against lack of testing. Without that we depend on Matt Hancock sticking a finger in the air. If we could test, then we'd be able to selectively reopen rather than choosing an all-or-nothing date based on Professor Ferguson's computer printout.
I'm certain that they are performing random antigen testing, as they have been for weeks now; they have referred to it often in the daily briefings. At this stage of an epidemic there doesn't need to be many random tests per day to give a decent estimate of the infected population. However they may be hamstrung by the poor sensitivity of the test (and perhaps poor specificity too). Does anyone know whether a more accurate test exists but is not being used?
When a reliable antibody test is available, they will add that to get an estimate of immunity as well. But such tests have a long time lag. And, especially at this stage, the maths is clear: test accuracy matters hugely. I think they are probably right to validate the available tests before deployment.
The lack of PPE is scandalous given the government's own pandemic preparedness plan (which everyone on here was sharing back when they were saying how brilliant and advanced the government's handling of this was) meant that it was essential that every hospital was full stocked and beyond.
They obviously stockpiled the wrong stuff. Why, we will have to find out in due course, although the obvious suggestion would be price. Coupled with failure of the supply chain, which is still affecting the food supply as well so not just a Government problem. Just-in-time just isn't working.
Isn't the issue with a lot of the PPE that it has expiry dates, so is difficult to stockpile in advance? Maintaining a future stockpile is going to involve constant rotation of stock in and out of the storage facility.
Does anyone know why I can't log in on Chrome on my laptop (Windows 10)? I log in but it just doesn't seem to save it. I can do it on Edge or my Android mobile on Chrome.
No idea but that is why I switched to Firefox for pb.
He doesn't seem to grasp the lag caused by the incubation and infection periods.
If it is: - An average of 5-7 days between infection and showing symptoms (if you are going to show symptoms) - An average of 16-20 days between showing symptoms and death (if you are going to die) (of course, some will be far quicker and some far slower)
... then those poor souls dying on Tuesday (and recorded yesterday) were mostly infected between 6th March and 9th March.
So how in the world could a lockdown established on the 23rd of March have affected the death rate?
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
You must surely see that Government over-promising - including by your hero himself - have played directly into this story.
He sees but thinks its unhelpful to say. I think it's more likely to get resolved the more people that see and shout angrily at HM Government
That’s comparing the average of one disease with the record high of the other, doesn’t sit right with me.
I suppose it depends how long the world remains at the current level of death. The charts on Worldometer are not encouraging. There is no deviation in the upward direction of the totals to date. I fear many, many countries are either failing to record these deaths or still at an early stage in infections.
And if the likes of India, South Africa or Venezuela get severely infected, with their inept governments, weak social control, poor housing and limited health service...it will get very very nasty very very fast.
What do the media think they're trying to achieve here?
Watcher from afar, all they look like achieving is sowing distrust among the populace that the advice to stay at home is the correct advice.
Quite - and after the pile in on the Police on here yesterday after the awful thread header it's not good. Fortunately the vast majority of people lack the unpleasantness of the media hacks and are more concerned that the measures do their job.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
You must surely see that Government over-promising - including by your hero himself - have played directly into this story.
Yes. Underpromise and overdeliver. Not the other way round.
I suspect Ministers need to get stuck in more to the "nitty gritty" of what's going on rather than simply taking expert advice as gospel.
The lack of PPE is scandalous given the government's own pandemic preparedness plan (which everyone on here was sharing back when they were saying how brilliant and advanced the government's handling of this was) meant that it was essential that every hospital was full stocked and beyond.
They obviously stockpiled the wrong stuff. Why, we will have to find out in due course, although the obvious suggestion would be price. Coupled with failure of the supply chain, which is still affecting the food supply as well so not just a Government problem. Just-in-time just isn't working.
Isn't the issue with a lot of the PPE that it has expiry dates, so is difficult to stockpile in advance? Maintaining a future stockpile is going to involve constant rotation of stock in and out of the storage facility.
I suspect in these dark times even the HSE would concede, The Health and Safety etc. at Work Act 1974 trumps the PPE Regulations 2002 and an out of date visor is better than no visor.
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
It's Belgium that is the most worrying - on the excellent chart provided yesterday by @Andy_Cooke they are tracking higher than Spain on per capita deaths.
More cases in Switzerland will mostly be a function of more testing.
Per Capita deaths in Switz aren't much lower than in Belgium
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
HYUFD comment is flippant but we have to listen to the medical experts
And to say this comment heralds defeat at a GE 4 years away is your own hyperbole
The comment explains the underlying motive on here and among much of the commentariat. Apparently all fair in love, war and pandemics.
Beautiful morning folks. Having promised myself I'd have the body of a god by the end of this lock down, I've done zero workouts. Hopefully the god in question won't be Buddha.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
You must surely see that Government over-promising - including by your hero himself - have played directly into this story.
Yes. Underpromise and overdeliver. Not the other way round.
I suspect Ministers need to get stuck in more to the "nitty gritty" of what's going on rather than simply taking expert advice as gospel.
The lack of PPE is scandalous given the government's own pandemic preparedness plan (which everyone on here was sharing back when they were saying how brilliant and advanced the government's handling of this was) meant that it was essential that every hospital was full stocked and beyond.
They obviously stockpiled the wrong stuff. Why, we will have to find out in due course, although the obvious suggestion would be price. Coupled with failure of the supply chain, which is still affecting the food supply as well so not just a Government problem. Just-in-time just isn't working.
As I understand it the results of the Pandemic Preparedness exercise run a few years ago were kept secret. What leaked out was not complimentary.
"In Daegu, we had more than 10,000 members of Shincheonji. When we tested those who were symptomatic, 87.5 percent turned out to be positive. When we tested a sample of people who weren’t symptomatic, it was 74.4 per cent . So we had to quarantine this group, and we did. We call this our “divine maneuver.” If we hadn’t done it from the very beginning, we’d be where the US is now, where Italy is now."
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
You must surely see that Government over-promising - including by your hero himself - have played directly into this story.
He sees but thinks its unhelpful to say. I think it's more likely to get resolved the more people that see and shout angrily at HM Government
For sure - despite all the complaining about the media, you can bet that as a result of the coverage there are urgent meetings of politicians and civil servants today with testing and PPE at the top of the agenda.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
The problem the Westminster government (or any government for that matter) have here is incumbency. When the message gets mangled or the wheels start to come off and scapegoats are being sought the government is an easy target.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
I know Wales NHS is falling well short on testing but to be honest I do not seek to accuse anyone, it is an intense and difficult position for those in power
I suspect in your heart of hearts, you know the situation is much, much worse in Wales than England.
Surprisingly not so sure.
I have had a series of medical issues since January and the most recent requires an ultrasound scan. Throughout the six weeks I have been able to receive doctor and nurse phone triage and surgery appointments
The doctor who has ordered the ultrasound said that there is still availability and at present we have not been hit like other parts of the country, but she expects that to change over the next few weeks
The UK picture is currently being distorted by London and, to a lesser extent, Birmingham. In many other parts wards are sitting empty and doctors twiddling their thumbs as a result of cancelled outpatient clinics. It is probably too much to hope that they will stay that way but we can dream.
On case numbers per capita, Switzerland is up there with Spain, yet I haven't seem much in the media about the Swiss circumstance or response?
There was interesting analysis by canton/region which suggested it had spread much faster in the Italian parts, re-enforcing the idea that cultural norms and greetings are part of why it spread in the med quicker and wider.
The case numbers are high because they test lots.
The Italian part of Switzerland is only about 8% of the country
The lack of PPE is scandalous given the government's own pandemic preparedness plan (which everyone on here was sharing back when they were saying how brilliant and advanced the government's handling of this was) meant that it was essential that every hospital was full stocked and beyond.
They obviously stockpiled the wrong stuff. Why, we will have to find out in due course, although the obvious suggestion would be price. Coupled with failure of the supply chain, which is still affecting the food supply as well so not just a Government problem. Just-in-time just isn't working.
Isn't the issue with a lot of the PPE that it has expiry dates, so is difficult to stockpile in advance? Maintaining a future stockpile is going to involve constant rotation of stock in and out of the storage facility.
Yes but stock rotation probably happens anyway and if not then they can ask Sainsbury's, Tesco's or even the hospital pharmacists how they manage.
Beautiful morning folks. Having promised myself I'd have the body of a god by the end of this lock down, I've done zero workouts. Hopefully the god in question won't be Buddha.
Especially not when he achieved bodhi...
if that's a pun it's gone way over my head.
‘Bodhi’ is the technical term for enlightenment. This was achieved by the Buddha (which means ‘the Enlightened One’) after he had starved himself for many days.
I wasn’t actually trying to make a pun, but it does work as one.
What do the media think they're trying to achieve here?
Watcher from afar, all they look like achieving is sowing distrust among the populace that the advice to stay at home is the correct advice.
Quite - and after the pile in on the Police on here yesterday after the awful thread header it's not good. Fortunately the vast majority of people lack the unpleasantness of the media hacks and are more concerned that the measures do their job.
I'm continually astounded when people think a measured argument police should know the law is awful, or take gripes against against aspects of the police service as piling on the entire profession. Its reactions like that which lead to being unable to tackle problems in institutions, as any critique is unfair or mean.
Its perfectly possible to think the majority do a great job but there are some major problems that dont need to be ignored even now. We wouldnt ignore government lying just because we are in a crisis, nor incompetence, and we shouldnt ignore police missteps relating to exceeding authority in a crisis. Slack is cut to everyone right now, but not for everything.
He doesn't seem to grasp the lag caused by the incubation and infection periods.
If it is: - An average of 5-7 days between infection and showing symptoms (if you are going to show symptoms) - An average of 16-20 days between showing symptoms and death (if you are going to die) (of course, some will be far quicker and some far slower)
... then those poor souls dying on Tuesday (and recorded yesterday) were mostly infected between 6th March and 9th March.
So how in the world could a lockdown established on the 23rd of March have affected the death rate?
He probably understands it reasonably well, but essentially gets higher status and pay the more dramatically he can (misre)present it.
Does anyone know why I can't log in on Chrome on my laptop (Windows 10)? I log in but it just doesn't seem to save it. I can do it on Edge or my Android mobile on Chrome.
i had that problem too. i just switched to explorer.
But here we run up against lack of testing. Without that we depend on Matt Hancock sticking a finger in the air. If we could test, then we'd be able to selectively reopen rather than choosing an all-or-nothing date based on Professor Ferguson's computer printout.
I'm certain that they are performing random antigen testing, as they have been for weeks now; they have referred to it often in the daily briefings. At this stage of an epidemic there doesn't need to be many random tests per day to give a decent estimate of the infected population. However they may be hamstrung by the poor sensitivity of the test (and perhaps poor specificity too). Does anyone know whether a more accurate test exists but is not being used?
When a reliable antibody test is available, they will add that to get an estimate of immunity as well. But such tests have a long time lag. And, especially at this stage, the maths is clear: test accuracy matters hugely. I think they are probably right to validate the available tests before deployment.
--AS
I wonder if they (a) don't see the utility of testing for the general population at this stage of the epidemic and think that sampling, coupled with testing those hospitalised, will give them a good enough handle on the growth rate and (b) think it is inaccurate anyway, so prefer just to tell hospital staff to self-isolate. However this goes against WHO advice so they would rather fudge and take the flak, than come out and say it.
Comments
The UBI part, that is simpler, is only $1200 one off so miles less than the up to £2500 per month.
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1245613419446693889?s=20
However, my issue is with those seeking to undermine public trust in a government fighting a worldwide crisis of health and economics for political reasons
"Nomura says there is mounting evidence that China’s leaders no longer believe their own story and are bracing for a second wave. Inland Sichuan has postponed the reopening of schools. Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong have tightened their quarantine rules for travelers. Chinese virologist Yang Zhangqiu says there could be 200,000 live cases right now. "
People who are worried that we are still allowing incoming flights are, I think, misunderstanding something. There are, it seems, hundreds of thousands of active cases in the community at the moment. It really doesn't matter if a few hundred more are imported. The trajectory of our epidemic is not materially changed.
Now if the lockdown works* then in a few weeks or months there may only be a few hundred active cases in the community; then it really does matter that we don't import a few hundred more. That's when mandatory quarantine, contact tracing, and follow-up testing really matter.
*as pointed out above, a population R0 less than 1 means that the number of cases should fall, but if say 10% of the population is still working and exposed to risk such that their R0 is greater than 1 within themselves (even if the overall R0 is less than 1) then, within that sub-population, we would still see an exponential rise. The basic theory is that this would continue until that subpopulation attains herd immunity. It's really important that non-home workers don't infect each other.
--AS
It is classic Mythical Man Month territory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month
The case numbers are high because they test lots.
Scorecards:
A Sunak
B Johnson, Hancock, Give
C Raab
D Jenrick
E Sharma
50,000 infections a day when people were still out on the lash and having trips to the seaside.
An earlier lockdown would have saved hundreds of lives.
As you know the situation here in Wales is not without its shortcomings. Although the testing regime started well the WAG's recent spat with HoffmanLaRoche, and the letter from Llynfi Surgery is not a good look. For that you for one could quite rightly demand Vaughan Gethin be hanged from the yard-arm at noon. That being so you may well have a point, but what's good for the goose is good for the gander etc.
More cases in Switzerland will mostly be a function of more testing.
Thanks for the clip of Peston. At last, someone has treated him like the excited seven-year-old he is, and not before time.
Not everything is perfect and there have been some loose ends and areas of controversy. But this is a new scenario for everyone. There have been some war-gaming performed but as the saying goes, when the first battle starts many plans go out the window.
The scientific advice may be arguable, but it will at least be scientific and will adapt to circumstances. Journalists need for a story, any story, will not adapt.
If and when we get the numbers here right down, that would be a good time to introduce testing and quarantine for arrivals from abroad.
It made our arguments about paper masks and lengths of sleeve look amateur hour to be honest.
Everyone in the hospital staff and patients wears a surgical mask.
Staff in contact with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 patients wear FFP2 masks and aprons
Staff involved in things like intubation wear FFP2 masks long-sleeved gowns and eye protection.
Used FFP2 masks are being kept for possible reuse. Talk is of steaming them, although according to a recent bmj letter dry heat at 75 degrees for 30 minutes is better. It also suggests using a cleanable face shield, or a surgical mask, over the mask to protect it.
No idea why Sharma was put forward. BEIS/President of COP26 is hardly at the forefront of a health emergency.
On another matter, here's an interesting thought experiment. After the first wave is said and done, consider two hypotheticals: that we started the lockdown a week earlier, or that we ended it a week later. Which saved more lives?
We won't know the answer until we have the benefit of hindsight and a lot of analysis, but I think it's quite likely the the end of the lockdown will matter more than the start. Of course it's not a zero-sum game and one would save most lives by extended lockdown at the start and end, but if the experts were working on the assumption that society would only tolerate x weeks of lockdown, then starting a week later than some commentators were demanding may have been the better option.
--AS
Roche and others have tests that can be done 800+ times per machine in an 8 hour shift. So how do we end up with a capacity of just 8000/day?
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/man-derailed-train-mercy-ship-los-angeles
The notion of UBI, so despised on PB, would at least have delivered a basic income quickly to those who need it most. Where the figure would have been set, was the gift of government in order to reduce the overall spend. IDS among others thought that would render us all lazy so politically it was never a goer in the Tory Party.
As to your league table, I suspect the names will ascend and descend as the weeks progress. Raab, Jenrick and Sharma are only having poor campaigns because due to BoJo's succumbing to the virus, they are taking Boris' spanking for him.
I am concerned that our isolation policies are falling behind the curve and need updating in light of the new information. Failure to act on this now would be a legitimate basis for criticism. The idea of medical staff who have recovered but are still shedding the virus returning to the front line in the belief that they are immune and don't need to be that careful around patients is quite scary.
One story from Switzerland is that they bought a plane load of PPE from China. The plane stopped in Germany on the way to Switzerland and was impounded by the Germans for 3 days before being released. Anyone who is hoping that the Germans will supply the chemicals, respirators and PPE we need is betting on a long shot.
I guess it's a hierarchy thing. Laura/Peston are top dog so it's ridiculous to expect someone else might question senior politicians.
At least the complaints are starting to be ones of substance.
Until China comes clean over the scale of this we should absolutely cut them out of the world economic order. It's time.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/the-good-life/201207/when-did-the-buddha-become-fat
I have had a series of medical issues since January and the most recent requires an ultrasound scan. Throughout the six weeks I have been able to receive doctor and nurse phone triage and surgery appointments
The doctor who has ordered the ultrasound said that there is still availability and at present we have not been hit like other parts of the country, but she expects that to change over the next few weeks
When a reliable antibody test is available, they will add that to get an estimate of immunity as well. But such tests have a long time lag. And, especially at this stage, the maths is clear: test accuracy matters hugely. I think they are probably right to validate the available tests before deployment.
--AS
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245469969284050945?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email
He doesn't seem to grasp the lag caused by the incubation and infection periods.
If it is:
- An average of 5-7 days between infection and showing symptoms (if you are going to show symptoms)
- An average of 16-20 days between showing symptoms and death (if you are going to die) (of course, some will be far quicker and some far slower)
... then those poor souls dying on Tuesday (and recorded yesterday) were mostly infected between 6th March and 9th March.
So how in the world could a lockdown established on the 23rd of March have affected the death rate?
I think it's more likely to get resolved the more people that see and shout angrily at HM Government
I suspect Ministers need to get stuck in more to the "nitty gritty" of what's going on rather than simply taking expert advice as gospel.
They should be gone once this is finished
"In Daegu, we had more than 10,000 members of Shincheonji. When we tested those who were symptomatic, 87.5 percent turned out to be positive. When we tested a sample of people who weren’t symptomatic, it was 74.4 per cent . So we had to quarantine this group, and we did. We call this our “divine maneuver.” If we hadn’t done it from the very beginning, we’d be where the US is now, where Italy is now."
https://www.wired.com/story/a-south-korean-covid-19-czar-has-some-advice-for-trump/
Come on Oxford!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/stark-warnings-part-of-governments-new-coronavirus-messaging?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1245348997507801088
Fisher, of course, has an MA from Cambridge.
I wasn’t actually trying to make a pun, but it does work as one.
Its perfectly possible to think the majority do a great job but there are some major problems that dont need to be ignored even now. We wouldnt ignore government lying just because we are in a crisis, nor incompetence, and we shouldnt ignore police missteps relating to exceeding authority in a crisis. Slack is cut to everyone right now, but not for everything.