politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today sees the worst set of front pages for the government since the crisis began
After a period when the government has been generally getting positive media coverage for its fight against the coronavirus all has changed this morning as can be seen.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
Good morning everyone; at least it's a fine morning. We have something cheerful; our own Springwatch box, a nest box with a camera in it on the side of the house, connected to the TV so we can watch a pair of blue-tits sorting out a nest. It wasn't occupied last year, which was a shame but this year a couple of birds are, irregularly, busy.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
In that context this matters from the previous thread:
Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory tract infection that emerged in late 20191,2. Initial outbreaks in China involved 13.8% cases with severe, and 6.1% with critical courses3. This severe presentation corresponds to the usage of a virus receptor that is expressed predominantly in the lung2,4. By causing an early onset of severe symptoms, this same receptor tropism is thought to have determined pathogenicity, but also aided the control, of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 20035. However, there are reports of COVID-19 cases with mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, suggesting the potential for pre- or oligosymptomatic transmission6–8. There is an urgent need for information on body site-specific virus replication, immunity, and infectivity. Here we provide a detailed virological analysis of nine cases, providing proof of active virus replication in upper respiratory tract tissues. Pharyngeal virus shedding was very high during the first week of symptoms (peak at 7.11 × 108 RNA copies per throat swab, day 4). Infectious virus was readily isolated from throat- and lung-derived samples, but not from stool samples, in spite of high virus RNA concentration. Blood and urine never yielded virus. Active replication in the throat was confirmed by viral replicative RNA intermediates in throat samples. Sequence-distinct virus populations were consistently detected in throat and lung samples from the same patient, proving independent replication. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after 7 days in 50% of patients (14 days in all), but was not followed by a rapid decline in viral load. COVID-19 can present as a mild upper respiratory tract illness. Active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract puts the prospects of COVID-19 containment in perspective.
'Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after 7 days in 50% of patients (14 days in all), but was not followed by a rapid decline in viral load." is surely the scsry bit of that - you are still infectious after recovering and developing immunity?
Which is why the WHO say for patients to isolate until 14 days after resolution of symptoms. The UK policy is only 7 days from start of symptoms, and that is what is being done at UK hospitals.
Combine that with 10% of the workforce being off with suspect COVID19 (the figure in my Trust) and lack of staff testing, and we have a major source of onward transmission.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
This is a case where responding to the day's news would make me lose my shit entirely, so I'll save my blood pressure and just say how nice it is to be rising with the dawn.
Good - no more than is deserved - though I suspect PHE’s decision to centralise all testing in-house has more than a little to do with it. But the government gets to carry the can, as it should do.
BBC reporting that random members of the public have turned up at the Ikea where they are testing people. Perhaps the media shouldn't be showing the location of these places.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
In that context this matters from the previous thread:
Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory tract infection that emerged in late 20191,2. Initial outbreaks in China involved 13.8% cases with severe, and 6.1% with critical courses3. This severe presentation corresponds to the usage of a virus receptor that is expressed predominantly in the lung2,4. By causing an early onset of severe symptoms, this same receptor tropism is thought to have determined pathogenicity, but also aided the control, of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 20035. However, there are reports of COVID-19 cases with mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, suggesting the potential for pre- or oligosymptomatic transmission6–8. There is an urgent need for information on body site-specific virus replication, immunity, and infectivity. Here we provide a detailed virological analysis of nine cases, providing proof of active virus replication in upper respiratory tract tissues. Pharyngeal virus shedding was very high during the first week of symptoms (peak at 7.11 × 108 RNA copies per throat swab, day 4). Infectious virus was readily isolated from throat- and lung-derived samples, but not from stool samples, in spite of high virus RNA concentration. Blood and urine never yielded virus. Active replication in the throat was confirmed by viral replicative RNA intermediates in throat samples. Sequence-distinct virus populations were consistently detected in throat and lung samples from the same patient, proving independent replication. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after 7 days in 50% of patients (14 days in all), but was not followed by a rapid decline in viral load. COVID-19 can present as a mild upper respiratory tract illness. Active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract puts the prospects of COVID-19 containment in perspective.
'Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after 7 days in 50% of patients (14 days in all), but was not followed by a rapid decline in viral load." is surely the scsry bit of that - you are still infectious after recovering and developing immunity?
Which is why the WHO say for patients to isolate until 14 days after resolution of symptoms. The UK policy is only 7 days from start of symptoms, and that is what is being done at UK hospitals.
Combine that with 10% of the workforce being off with suspect COVID19 (the figure in my Trust) and lack of staff testing, and we have a major source of onward transmission.
NHS workers are between a rock and a hard place on when to head back to work tbh. The bits I'm curious about are the obvious choices we could and should have made differently earlier in the process. Quite a bit of this has been like a slow motion train wreck
BBC reporting that random members of the public have turned up at the Ikea where they are testing people. Perhaps the media shouldn't be showing the location of these places.
Even staff are only being tested if they have an appointment booked by their manager (both the IKEA site in London and also Nottingham).
Compare and contrast with the open access drive through testing that were part of how South Korea got it under control.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
My point is that on 9th March, and going into the weekend of 14th/15th of March the government allowed pubs and restaurants to stay open. I went out to one myself on the 14th, and it was 2/3 full.
We won't be able to judge the lockdown for another week, at the very earliest.
"Recovered" cases not quarantined for 14 days after resolution of symptoms is another massive gap in our COVID19 plans. The World Health Organisation, what do they know? We are British and know better.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Since R0 is the total number of people you are going to infect, if you infect your housemates your job is done. The question is who are they going to infect. And that depends on timing. If you don’t infect them until near the end of the lockdown, that’s the bad news.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Since R0 is the total number of people you are going to infect, if you infect your housemates your job is done. The question is who are they going to infect. And that depends on timing. If you don’t infect them until near the end of the lockdown, that’s the bad news.
Ummm... They can't infect you back.
Unless you have people continually swapping house mates.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Big roll scrum at the supermarket ? Remember the UK lockdown is pretty much solely a white collar one too.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
That is the average figure, but if key workers in healthcare and supermarkets are back at work after just seven days, surely you can see the problem of continues?
Out of interest, in California is the WHO 14 day recommendation being followed?
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Since R0 is the total number of people you are going to infect, if you infect your housemates your job is done. The question is who are they going to infect. And that depends on timing. If you don’t infect them until near the end of the lockdown, that’s the bad news.
Ummm... They can't infect you back.
.
We don't know that.
Your assessment is also very optimistic. Yes, in theory, you might be correct but this virus is highly highly contagious. Every single item that comes through your door is a potential vector: all deliveries, all post, all packaging. Every time you venture out, whether for your daily exercise or to do shopping, is a risk. The bins you empty, the handles you touch. Everything.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
This is a case where responding to the day's news would make me lose my shit entirely, so I'll save my blood pressure and just say how nice it is to be rising with the dawn.
I know what you mean. I can only allow so much of this through my sanity filter.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
No. As Churchill said “Experts should be on tap, not on top” - this testing imbroglio has been going on long enough and Ministers should be challenging PHE behind closed doors on their approach, rather than simply accepting what they say.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
What relevance did headlines from 2015 have in relation to Boris' 2019 landslide?
Zero. We would have to be fucking lobotomized to run the government in response to the daily effluent pumped out by these 'journalists'.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
No. As Churchill said “Experts should be on tap, not on top” - this testing imbroglio has been going on long enough and Ministers should be challenging PHE behind closed doors on their approach, rather than simply accepting what they say.
Testing to what end ? What treatment will proved cases get over suspected cases ?
Sky News are also running some chilling stories today.
I'm finding the BBC very irritating. They have reverted to being Aunty BBC and at times are little more than a mouthpiece for the Gov't spin.
As Eadric posted in the night, it was social media who were onto this virus from the outset. The videos, the photos, the stories emanating out of Wuhan alerted us to the real disaster despite, not because of, the mainstream media. The reason that fake news spreads so readily online is because the truth does too.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Since R0 is the total number of people you are going to infect, if you infect your housemates your job is done. The question is who are they going to infect. And that depends on timing. If you don’t infect them until near the end of the lockdown, that’s the bad news.
Ummm... They can't infect you back.
.
We don't know that.
Your assessment is also very optimistic. Yes, in theory, you might be correct but this virus is highly highly contagious. Every single item that comes through your door is a potential vector: all deliveries, all post, all packaging. Every time you venture out, whether for your daily exercise or to do shopping, is a risk. The bins you empty, the handles you touch. Everything.
If people can be infected back then we're all going to die in a few years.
The media are telling the truth. Just like they did against Nixon. Just like they did against the Vietnam War. Just as they did in bringing down Major's sleazy Government.
The media are telling the truth. Just like they did against Nixon. Just like they did against the Vietnam War. Just as they did in bringing down Major's sleazy Government.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
It should be done now actually. If the true r0 is below 1 you don't want new infections entering the chain. Besides the only people coming in (repatriations) should be desperate enough to endure a fortnight of hotel arrest. They'll still have the internet etc.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
Gordon Brown’s spectacularly inept response to the 2007 floods did not significantly damage him. If anything, it did the reverse. What did for him was the 2008 financial crash - which ironically, despite all his mistakes leading up to it, he handled quite well when it came. He had built his reputation on economic competence, not crisis management. When he lost that, he was screwed.
Similarly Johnson has built his appeal on populism, a flair for publicity and bashing the EU. Everyone knows he is totally incompetent but it hasn’t hindered him up to now.
I do not think this crisis will of itself damage the government. That’s especially true given many other countries are doing far worse. What might do for them is they will have to scale back on the populist splurging they promised elsewhere to foot the bill for it.
What do the media think they're trying to achieve here?
Watcher from afar, all they look like achieving is sowing distrust among the populace that the advice to stay at home is the correct advice.
The government should not be obeyed sheep-like. Blind faith in authority will kill you, as can easily be shown by the fact that the government has shifted position about eight times in the last month.
We should all be willing the government to succeed on this. We should all be applying our critical faculties to the policies and administrative steps it adopts to succeed. Right now, it looks to be stumbling.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
Gordon Brown’s spectacularly inept response to the 2007 floods did not significantly damage him. If anything, it did the reverse. What did for him was the 2008 financial crash - which ironically, despite all his mistakes leading up to it, he handled quite well when it came. He had built his reputation on economic competence, not crisis management. When he lost that, he was screwed.
Similarly Johnson has built his appeal on populism, a flair for publicity and bashing the EU. Everyone knows he is totally incompetent but it hasn’t hindered him up to now.
I do not think this crisis will of itself damage the government. That’s especially true given many other countries are doing far worse. What might do for them is they will have to scale back on the populist splurging they promised elsewhere to foot the bill for it.
And worth remembering that during the crisis itself, Brown’s ratings rose. It was only as the dust settled that voters took a view on his performance in the round.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
What’s the point of lockdown if we keep reintroducing new infection from abroad?
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
HYUFD comment is flippant but we have to listen to the medical experts
And to say this comment heralds defeat at a GE 4 years away is your own hyperbole
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
A responsible non political response which I endorse 100%
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
This may also be of value for other key workers. One reason the tube is full at times is the reduced service because so many staff are self-isolating. Probably most of these are prompted by common colds, but without testing we cannot be sure. A thread or two back, someone mentioned similar problems in the food industry.
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Depends where you live and what you do. BBC breakfast just had a piece on a tower block. No washing machines in any of the flats, a tiny launderette with 5 machines for many households to share, and tiny lifts (at least sixteen stories so stairs not an option for many). Their R0 is going to be quite high whereas others with the capability to self isolate more effectively might be close to 0.
Also what percentage of the country are still working? NHS, Supermarkets, Food production, Transportation and deliveries, emergency services, carers, etc - 5m perhaps?
Only if people continue stick to the rules for the whole period.
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
I would be staggered if R0 was anywhere near as high as 0.6 in a lockdown situation. I mean, it might be for the first week or two as you infected your housemates. But after that, who are you going to infect?
Since R0 is the total number of people you are going to infect, if you infect your housemates your job is done. The question is who are they going to infect. And that depends on timing. If you don’t infect them until near the end of the lockdown, that’s the bad news.
Ummm... They can't infect you back.
.
We don't know that.
Your assessment is also very optimistic. Yes, in theory, you might be correct but this virus is highly highly contagious. Every single item that comes through your door is a potential vector: all deliveries, all post, all packaging. Every time you venture out, whether for your daily exercise or to do shopping, is a risk. The bins you empty, the handles you touch. Everything.
If people can be infected back then we're all going to die in a few years.
Current advice is we cannot be reinfected (so those living alone can be complete slobs inside their homes). However, all bets may be off since Chinese reports of a new variant.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
Ok both testing and PPE they appear to have made the cardinal mistake of overpromising somewhat, so some of the fault is with the comms. On PPE the failure to get it done is a scandal in the making.
The media are telling the truth. Just like they did against Nixon. Just like they did against the Vietnam War. Just as they did in bringing down Major's sleazy Government.
Truth must always out. It always will.
You are losing it this morning
You need to take on board the professional and rational response to you from Foxy who is on the front line, unlike yourself who is losing it
Yes I was referring to 5m as an estimate of working outside of home. Which would leave 20m furloughed, redundant or working from home. Doubt it is much less than 5m?
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
The media are telling the truth. Just like they did against Nixon. Just like they did against the Vietnam War. Just as they did in bringing down Major's sleazy Government.
I think it's totally related to the sudden rise in death numbers, no one cared about testing two days ago.
Lots of people cared about testing before that. Hence the govt promising to ramp up testing. The negative headlines are because of the failure to increase testing as promised.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
You say supply issues; others say procurement issues, which mean government ineptitude at least. On testing, the United States, despite President Trump's initial fumbling, now boasts it has carried out more tests than South Korea.
Boris should employ a procurement czar, as Churchill did when he made Beaverbrook Minister of Production. It is surprising he has not already done so given Cummings's low opinion of government procurement and Boris's own biography of Churchill, which is no doubt compulsory reading for @ydoethur's history students.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
A little more than that, for health professionals!
I think it's totally related to the sudden rise in death numbers, no one cared about testing two days ago.
Lots of people cared about testing before that. Hence the govt promising to ramp up testing. The negative headlines are because of the failure to increase testing as promised.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
What’s the point of lockdown if we keep reintroducing new infection from abroad?
Realistically who is actually travelling now? It will just be people coming back home. No-one is coming to look at Stonehenge, visit closed offices in the city, sample our closed restaurants or go shopping in a closed Bicester village.
The press aren't happy because their wise advice is being ignored in favour of the expert's knowledge. It's even worse for them because they re special, remember. Like celebrities, they are closely followed (or so they think) to get to the heart of any subject.
They may have a degree in PPE or English but they just naturally know things about science. Not having to worry about picky details, they can see the important facts, being fearless seekers after truth. That's why they are chosen, along with their fellow celebrities to opine on virtually everything.
They are the ranter in the pub with a veneer of poshness.
How dare this government go with the experts? People who have no presentation skills. Amateurs!
Yes I was referring to 5m as an estimate of working outside of home. Which would leave 20m furloughed, redundant or working from home. Doubt it is much less than 5m?
Yougov should be able to check this relatively easily. Are you I) Retired ii) Unemployed Iii) Furloughed at home Iv) Working from home V) Working away from your home Vi) Working outside your house but in complete isolation (Farming for instance)
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
Yes I was referring to 5m as an estimate of working outside of home. Which would leave 20m furloughed, redundant or working from home. Doubt it is much less than 5m?
Yougov should be able to check this relatively easily. Are you I) Retired ii) Unemployed Iii) Furloughed at home Iv) Working from home V) Working away from your home Vi) Working outside your house but in complete isolation (Farming for instance)
Yougov could be very helpful to the govt in getting fast moving stats out.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
Have to be careful over false negatives but for critical healthcare workers it's probably OK
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
A little more than that, for health professionals!
So is the issue that we shouldn’t be wasting tests on patients ?
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 2/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
edited, knocked them down to 2 for PPE. that should have been top priority imo.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
I think there's a good argument for switching testing to care home staff and those working in hospitals most at risk of infection. Patients admitted to hospital might have to make do with a clinical diagnosis - there's anyway evidence that a CT scan is more reliable (in those who have developed pneumonia) and certainly quicker than current tests.
They need to get rid of all the armchair idiots from the Lobby, and replace them with medical and science journalists who can hold a sensible conversation with those on the front line.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
That seems logical - so why isn’t the fuss about the targeting of tests - not just the number ? Testing the entire population of Cornwall would be “moar” tests - but of limited use.
It’s like a microcosm of health spending politics - quantum over quality.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
That seems logical - so why isn’t the fuss about the targeting of tests - not just the number ? Testing the entire population of Cornwall would be “moar” tests - but of limited use.
It’s like a microcosm of health spending politics - quantum over quality.
They are trying to target the tests - and there still aren't, currently, enough (or enough capacity). Testing everyone is, as an expert has said somewhat unhelpfully, a side issue until after the lockdown is ended.
There is no general election for 4 years, the government has a big majority, it should not worry about the press and focus on what the medical experts advise
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
I think that the government acted about 2 weeks too late, but apart from the lack of following the 14 day rule for Recovered cases, doing pretty much the right thing now.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
Ok both testing and PPE they appear to have made the cardinal mistake of overpromising somewhat, so some of the fault is with the comms. On PPE the failure to get it done is a scandal in the making.
The problem with PPE, is that it is inadequate.the long sleeve protective gowns that we see in use in other countries are not in the stockpile, neither are there enough eye protection or FFP3 masks. We have plenty of regular surgical masks, gloves and aprons, but these are not enough protection for suspect cases.
I see the SNP have named the Scotch temporary hospital after a nurse who died within 3 months of starting work from an infectious disease she caught from a patient. Should boost morale...
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
And "peace of mind" if positive and then recover - health workers knowing for sure that that have had it and so are unlikely to get it again - is also worth a lot
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
I'm not so sure. The US approach, while crude, is at least simple and easier to manage, and less likely to have holes for people to fall through. Our government's set of schemes come with a lot of small print and a lot of admin, and tons of holes. By June when the small business payments come to be made, the media will be full of hard luck tales and sad cases.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
I suspect PHE’s decision to centralise all testing in-house has more than a little to do with it. But the government gets to carry the can, as it should do.
The press aren't happy because their wise advice is being ignored in favour of the expert's knowledge. It's even worse for them because they re special, remember. Like celebrities, they are closely followed (or so they think) to get to the heart of any subject.
They may have a degree in PPE or English but they just naturally know things about science. Not having to worry about picky details, they can see the important facts, being fearless seekers after truth. That's why they are chosen, along with their fellow celebrities to opine on virtually everything.
They are the ranter in the pub with a veneer of poshness.
How dare this government go with the experts? People who have no presentation skills. Amateurs!
.
Yes, the media is infected with PPE types and so is politics and the civil service. But let's be fair, the government really is screwing up over testing and PPE, as even itself admits we are below where it wants us to be.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
The benefits are that @Foxy can get back to work as a doctor. That's the point. The NHS and other industries are below par because so many staff are needlessly self-isolating in the absence of tests that might give them the all-clear to return to work.
I do not think that the attacks on HMG re testing are unfair as there clearly is a problem that must be addressed and to be honest I do not know the true story behind the shortage of testing to date
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
You must surely see that Government over-promising - including by your hero himself - have played directly into this story.
The problem with PPE, is that it is inadequate.the long sleeve protective gowns that we see in use in other countries are not in the stockpile, neither are there enough eye protection or FFP3 masks.
Do you know where the NHS PPE is made? If it is not the UK, then ramping up output is going to be very difficult if not impossible.
Reading back, Mike Tindall returned from a northern Italy ski break just over a month ago. He followed government advice and didn't self quarantine for 14 days as he hasn't had any symptoms. He then headed off to Cheltenham.
It is odd that we didn't shut our boarders back in February - it did seem the obvious thing to do.
The people who died yesterday were infected when this was the government advice:
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
But actually three weeks ago it was clear we were going to have an outbreak, so it was a question of managing it.
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
A lot of early infection has come from Brits returning home from Italy/France/Austria. No country has shut its borders to its own citizens (unless they’ve suspended all flights) -but I do think we need to either ban travellers from other countries (who will almost certainly be travelling without valid travel insurance) or force ALL arrivals to quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
The time for quarantining arrivals from abroad is long gone. They are no more likely to have it than the people already on the tube back from Heathrow.
What’s the point of lockdown if we keep reintroducing new infection from abroad?
Realistically who is actually travelling now? It will just be people coming back home. No-one is coming to look at Stonehenge, visit closed offices in the city, sample our closed restaurants or go shopping in a closed Bicester village.
Should be simple to quarantine then. There are currently nearly 20 aircraft airborne en-route to Heathrow from the USA - the global COVID-19 hot spot, with a dozen already landed.
Testing capacity 3/10 Explaining about testing capacity 1/10 PPE availabilty 3/10 Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10 Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1) Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
On the other hand, I'd give the government a solid 9/10 for its economic response. It eventually got to putting together an impressive package that focuses on keeping people in work. It fumbled it at the beginning but what it has ended up with is superior to that put together by most other countries.
The delivery of Sunak's packages, which in principle are very good, may also prove to be slow, difficult and cumbersome.
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
Enabling potentially infected self isolating NHS staff back to work if they’re not infected.
But are they not staying at home because they have a fever etc ?
As we saw with Dr Fox of this parish he had some symptoms, but not COVID-19 - I’m sure a prompt test would have helped put his mind at rest a lot sooner.
So the benefits are peace of mind ?
A little more than that, for health professionals!
So is the issue that we shouldn’t be wasting tests on patients ?
Test staff only.
You have to test hospitalised patients because there will still be some who are ill from bacterial pneumonia - and they will then need treating with antibiotics.
This is another rubbish talking point from you, just like the last one.
The government is clearly doing its best, but has made mistakes. It is good to see backbenchers (Hunt) and the media hold it to account best they can. They have improved the government response. But again the media make mistakes, but they too are doing their best. We need to drop Trumpian language and language of betrayal.
At the start of the crisis the government had problems with communication and was slow to react. Now the biggest problem is that reality does not live up to the rhetoric.
Despite successes in other areas, press releases on appropriate PPE, Tests and ventilator have simply not materialised on the ground and people are still at risk. The government I am sure are again doing their best, but they either need to revise their statements in the face of the new reality and ‘level with the British people’ or find a way to close the gap pronto. We are reaching the peak of the crisis.
The problem with PPE, is that it is inadequate.the long sleeve protective gowns that we see in use in other countries are not in the stockpile, neither are there enough eye protection or FFP3 masks.
Do you know where the NHS PPE is made? If it is not the UK, then ramping up output is going to be very difficult if not impossible.
Unless we can transfer production, or use alternative designs. And if it turns out that a UK-made mask or gown costs twice as much then so bloody what?
Comments
If that number were to drift back up to 1 (and pre lockdown, it’s estimated at 2.6), the lockdown would take 30 weeks to be effective, not 12. modelling suggests.
Combine that with 10% of the workforce being off with suspect COVID19 (the figure in my Trust) and lack of staff testing, and we have a major source of onward transmission.
https://twitter.com/michaeljswalker/status/1245415339149705219?s=19
Things move so quickly that it is easy to forget that our government was not listening to the WHO.
Compare and contrast with the open access drive through testing that were part of how South Korea got it under control.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-testing/over-100-countries-ask-south-korea-for-coronavirus-testing-help-official-idUSKBN21J51C
No, the bigger question is why we didn't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world at the beginning of February. We could have had an outcome like South Korea had we done that.
We won't be able to judge the lockdown for another week, at the very earliest.
"Recovered" cases not quarantined for 14 days after resolution of symptoms is another massive gap in our COVID19 plans. The World Health Organisation, what do they know? We are British and know better.
Sir Paul Nurse of Crick Institute on R4 implicitly criticising PHE for testing approach - ignoring many small labs able to test.
Unless you have people continually swapping house mates.
Remember the UK lockdown is pretty much solely a white collar one too.
Out of interest, in California is the WHO 14 day recommendation being followed?
This comment should send a shiver down any Conservative member's spine. It's the sort of remark which heralds defeat at the next election. The signature of all failing Governments.
Your assessment is also very optimistic. Yes, in theory, you might be correct but this virus is highly highly contagious. Every single item that comes through your door is a potential vector: all deliveries, all post, all packaging. Every time you venture out, whether for your daily exercise or to do shopping, is a risk. The bins you empty, the handles you touch. Everything.
There are still inadequate provision of PPE, in particular there are no long sleeved protective gowns, and there is inadequate testing. Both of these are due to supply issues rather than government intent.
Zero. We would have to be fucking lobotomized to run the government in response to the daily effluent pumped out by these 'journalists'.
Testing to what end ? What treatment will proved cases get over suspected cases ?
I'm finding the BBC very irritating. They have reverted to being Aunty BBC and at times are little more than a mouthpiece for the Gov't spin.
As Eadric posted in the night, it was social media who were onto this virus from the outset. The videos, the photos, the stories emanating out of Wuhan alerted us to the real disaster despite, not because of, the mainstream media. The reason that fake news spreads so readily online is because the truth does too.
Watcher from afar, all they look like achieving is sowing distrust among the populace that the advice to stay at home is the correct advice.
Truth must always out. It always will.
Similarly Johnson has built his appeal on populism, a flair for publicity and bashing the EU. Everyone knows he is totally incompetent but it hasn’t hindered him up to now.
I do not think this crisis will of itself damage the government. That’s especially true given many other countries are doing far worse. What might do for them is they will have to scale back on the populist splurging they promised elsewhere to foot the bill for it.
Some like it hot, my other half is not amongst those.
We should all be willing the government to succeed on this. We should all be applying our critical faculties to the policies and administrative steps it adopts to succeed. Right now, it looks to be stumbling.
And to say this comment heralds defeat at a GE 4 years away is your own hyperbole
Also what percentage of the country are still working? NHS, Supermarkets, Food production, Transportation and deliveries, emergency services, carers, etc - 5m perhaps?
https://twitter.com/drjameskent3/status/1245567843770470400?s=21
You need to take on board the professional and rational response to you from Foxy who is on the front line, unlike yourself who is losing it
It’s not like Mysticrose ever really had it.
And a case study in the damage our political journalists are causing to serious debate
Boris should employ a procurement czar, as Churchill did when he made Beaverbrook Minister of Production. It is surprising he has not already done so given Cummings's low opinion of government procurement and Boris's own biography of Churchill, which is no doubt compulsory reading for @ydoethur's history students.
They may have a degree in PPE or English but they just naturally know things about science. Not having to worry about picky details, they can see the important facts, being fearless seekers after truth. That's why they are chosen, along with their fellow celebrities to opine on virtually everything.
They are the ranter in the pub with a veneer of poshness.
How dare this government go with the experts? People who have no presentation skills. Amateurs!
.
Are you
I) Retired
ii) Unemployed
Iii) Furloughed at home
Iv) Working from home
V) Working away from your home
Vi) Working outside your house but in complete isolation (Farming for instance)
Test staff only.
Testing capacity 3/10
Explaining about testing capacity 1/10
PPE availabilty 2/10
Explaining about PPE availabilty 2/10
Ventilator availabilty 5/10 (we don't know yet if we will have enough or not, this could change to a 9 or 1)
Hospital bed capacity 10/10
gave them benefit of doubt early on and happy to follow the rules, but some excuses wearing a bit thin.
edited, knocked them down to 2 for PPE. that should have been top priority imo.
Patients admitted to hospital might have to make do with a clinical diagnosis - there's anyway evidence that a CT scan is more reliable (in those who have developed pneumonia) and certainly quicker than current tests.
It’s like a microcosm of health spending politics - quantum over quality.
Should boost morale...
However, this crisis requires constructive and effective criticism not a pack of unhappy ill informed journalists and media presenters as we are seeing at present attempting to undermine public trust in a government facing the worst crisis since the last war
It is not edifying and I am not sure it is even shared by the public
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-rise-of-the-bluffocracy
Or an opposing view:
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/challenge-myth-bluffocracy-common-sense-264754
Before taking it back outside I left it by the thermostat to discover that what we thought was a frugal setting of ~16C was more accurately 20C.
I have more yarn for knitting more jumpers now.
Ah, my alpine jacket,..
A simper method of delivery, perhaps UBI which on PB has been described as blunt and expensive, may have been the way to have gone.
This is another rubbish talking point from you, just like the last one.
At the start of the crisis the government had problems with communication and was slow to react. Now the biggest problem is that reality does not live up to the rhetoric.
Despite successes in other areas, press releases on appropriate PPE, Tests and ventilator have simply not materialised on the ground and people are still at risk. The government I am sure are again doing their best, but they either need to revise their statements in the face of the new reality and ‘level with the British people’ or find a way to close the gap pronto. We are reaching the peak of the crisis.