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SystemSystem Posts: 12,650
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,861
    Good evening, everyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Evening !
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    FPT
    anotherDave said:

    Quincel said:

    GeoffM said:

    isam said:


    Mr Helmer was dismissive of the odds, adding: "I can't put on a bet as I would be breaking election rules.

    Okay, I know that I should know this ... but ... is this true?

    I don't know for sure, but I was always under the impression it wasn't, and there were no rules whatsoever governing political betting.
    Isn't there a general rule about using insider information?

    Or participants having a financial interest in the outcome? The obvious danger here would be people betting against themselves, and sabotaging their campaign.
    I can't find any election rules against it.

    The biggest danger would be the over/under of votes for those joke candidates the bookies sometimes offer. I've always wondered whether anything would stop 51 locals just putting bets on and then going and voting themselves money.

    I think Helmer's got it wrong tbh.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Who is going to leave the realms of mere mortals and embrace legendhood by joining the PB 2014 Mk3 Diplomacy game?

    Password catsandkittens
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Bugger!caught by thread change, again. :(

    Change of topic:

    I have this feeling that when the results of the referendum in the Eastern Ukraine are announced, and it goes to those favouring union with Russia, Putin will send his troops in.

    This feeling is particularly strong tonight, as Obama and Kerry denounce the referendum in pithy terms.

    "The Obama administration denounced as illegal a planned weekend referendum by pro-Russian insurgents pushing for autonomy and independence for portions of eastern Ukraine.

    Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday the referendum being planned for Sunday would be "bogus" and would not be recognized (sic) by the West.

    "We flatly reject this illegal effort to further divide Ukraine," he told reporters after meeting at the State Department with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton."

    I see that the EU and Ashton are in the mix again.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    corporeal said:

    Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

    D:
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    corporeal said:

    Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

    Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Bloody bookies can't add up !

    Still if I push a missed 50p on an 8-1 shot that hacked up at 5-1 I'm probably going to make the ban list ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,861
    Interesting piece about Chinese politics, cleaning up corruption and so forth:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27289321

    The tiger references remind me of The Tiger Killers, one of the books (if you go for separate volumes rather than a boxed set) in the Outlaws of the Marsh. It's a sort of Robin Hood in China.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Next said:

    corporeal said:

    Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

    Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?
    Given his position in both games he has every chance.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

    I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

    I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited May 2014
    Also I've backed Iceland to win the Eurovision.

    I've been impressed by them tonight.

    250/1 with Corals.

    Now back to the semi.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,861
    Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Next said:

    corporeal said:

    Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

    Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?
    Hadn't put it together before, but I seem to have invaded Pulpstar in both almost simultaneously.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

    Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    corporeal said:

    Next said:

    corporeal said:

    Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

    Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?
    Hadn't put it together before, but I seem to have invaded Pulpstar in both almost simultaneously.
    *Innuendo klaxon alert*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

    Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,861
    Mr. Eagles, the Kaiser and Czar didn't fare very well. And Caesar was inferior to Augustus.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    AndyJS said:

    I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

    Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

    The bookies don't agree
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,094
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

    Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.
    That's mainly because Augustus pinched it.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

    Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.
    That's mainly because Augustus pinched it.

    Shush, he picked it, because he wanted a name that would be both feared and respected for military prowess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    --- Betting post ---

    If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

    (Though obviously still a longshot ;) )
    ---------------
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Easterross said:

    Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

    I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

    I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

    Cameron and EdM did the same degree at the same University. Ed got a Second,Cameron got a First. EdM's chief claim to mental excellence is his ability to solve the Rubik's Cube quite rapidly.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

    Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

    The bookies don't agree
    I agree with Andy JS. Helmer is a good choice for Ukip and his selection sends out a strong dog whistle about the party. His controversial views could bring in votes and the fact that he's an ex-Tory helps.

  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

    Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

    The bookies don't agree
    I agree with Andy JS. Helmer is a good choice for Ukip and his selection sends out a strong dog whistle about the party. His controversial views could bring in votes and the fact that he's an ex-Tory helps.

    I'm waiting for a few more of his views to become public and see his price soar, then back him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've put another £50 on UKIP at 5/1. It'll make election night interesting even if I lose.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited May 2014
    shadsy said:

    There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

    Didn't the Humberside Police Commissioner back himself at 100/1 to win without any problems?

    Edit: Mr Grove referred to defying the odds to win the election.

    Bookmaker William Hill had given him odds of 100/1 at one stage in the campaign.

    He said: "Thank you William Hill for that windfall, on behalf of some of my campaign members who put a bet on."

    William Hill said they had taken one bet of £10 at 100/1 on Mr Grove and two bets of £100 at 10/1.

    http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Matthew-Grove-beats-John-Prescott-Humberside/story-17339710-detail/story.html

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,094
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

    Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.
    That's mainly because Augustus pinched it.

    Shush, he picked it, because he wanted a name that would be both feared and respected for military prowess.
    I think it was more a matter of factional politics, and the desire to not be associated with that nutter Marcus Antonius.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Helmer - personally I never trust anyone whose tie is a Windsor knot. Still, unlike Allardyce, at least he fastens the top button of his shirt.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Blue Guerilla thinks Farage is angling for Portsmouth South.

    http://www.theblueguerilla.co.uk/2014/05/hancock-under-pressure-from-ukip-after.html
  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    Clement Freud

    "In his column in Racing Post, issue of 23 August 2006, he wrote about his election to Parliament in a by-election: "Politically, I was an anti-Conservative unable to join a Labour party hell-bent on nationalising everything that moved, so when a by-election occurred in East Anglia, where I lived and live, I stood as a Liberal and was fortunate in getting in. Ladbrokes quoted me at 33-1 in this three-horse contest, so Ladbrokes paid for me to have rather more secretarial and research staff than other MPs, which helped to keep me in for five parliaments.""

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clement_Freud#Political_career
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    O/T - I saw a Scottish European Elections ballot paper today, and some of the tag lines were interesting, in order as they appear on the ballot paper.

    Britain First - Defending The Union 2014

    BNP - We can make Scotland Better

    Conservative Party - Scottish Conservatives vote no to Independence

    Labour Party - No Tag Line

    Liberal Democrats - Scottish Liberal Democrats

    NO2EU - Yes to Workers Rights

    Scottish Green Party - No Tag Line

    SNP - Make Scotland's Mark in Europe

    UKIP - No Tag Line
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    peter_from_putney said:

    Helmer - personally I never trust anyone whose tie is a Windsor knot. Still, unlike Allardyce, at least he fastens the top button of his shirt.

    http://www.theblueguerilla.co.uk/2013/11/another-d-day-for-mike-hancock-mp.html
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    shadsy said:

    There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

    Consider the following scenario: Candidate A is the favourite to win the election. He puts £1,000 on candidate B at 5/1. On the day before the election, on live television, candidate A makes a speech denying the Holocaust, with the intention of losing the election. Candidate A has interfered with the event or process to which the gambling relates. Surely he is criminally liable by virtue of section 42(1) of the Gambling Act 2005?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    AndyJS said:

    I've put another £50 on UKIP at 5/1. It'll make election night interesting even if I lose.

    Myself and astateofdenmark are opposing you with the Conservatives, Mike with UKIP.

    My 30-1 still unmatched on Betfair !
  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    Could the Lord become a Kipper?

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 6m
    "If the British electorate always vote for what they've always voted for, they'll always get what they've always had"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,430
    Roger Helmer strikes me as someone who having rejected political correctness and defined himself against it, now just enjoys shocking people, being insensitive, pedantic and facetious. There is much to reject about political correctness, but kindness and humanity go a long way to bridging the gap with people. UKIP must hope there are enough secret P.C. haters out there to get him elected, because I certainly don't think he has floating voter appeal like Diane James has.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited May 2014
    I think it is ok for you to back yourself to win in an election, but not OK to back yourself to lose.

    Gawd knows what happens with spread betting.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    edited May 2014
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    shadsy said:

    There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

    Consider the following scenario: Candidate A is the favourite to win the election. He puts £1,000 on candidate B at 5/1. On the day before the election, on live television, candidate A makes a speech denying the Holocaust, with the intention of losing the election. Candidate A has interfered with the event or process to which the gambling relates. Surely he is criminally liable by virtue of section 42(1) of the Gambling Act 2005?
    Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

    £5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    Pulpstar said:

    --- Betting post ---

    If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

    (Though obviously still a longshot ;) )
    ---------------

    And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!


  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Easterross said:

    Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

    I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

    I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

    Cameron and EdM did the same degree at the same University. Ed got a Second,Cameron got a First. EdM's chief claim to mental excellence is his ability to solve the Rubik's Cube quite rapidly.
    For that alone he should be barred from ever becoming PM. Rubik's Cube was the work of the devil :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    peter_from_putney said:

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

    @Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems :D ?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited May 2014
    Easterross said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Easterross said:

    Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

    I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

    I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

    Cameron and EdM did the same degree at the same University. Ed got a Second,Cameron got a First. EdM's chief claim to mental excellence is his ability to solve the Rubik's Cube quite rapidly.
    For that alone he should be barred from ever becoming PM. Rubik's Cube was the work of the devil :)
    As it is the lagershed.

    What does a Rubik's cube and a penis have in common?

    The longer you play with them, the harder they get.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    edited May 2014
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    --- Betting post ---

    If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

    (Though obviously still a longshot ;) )
    ---------------

    And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!


    I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

    The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

    £5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

    Then consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    isam said:

    Could the Lord become a Kipper?

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 6m
    "If the British electorate always vote for what they've always voted for, they'll always get what they've always had"

    A forgettable x factor winner?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Most important news of the day, in what was apparently a dreadfully dull match, Ross County has beaten Hibs 1-0 thereby avoiding the drop and creating the possibility of both Edinburgh clubs being demoted this season. As Jack W would say 'titters'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Quincel said:

    Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

    The Ashcroft Marginals polls comes out in a few weeks time.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    isam said:

    Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

    £5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

    Then consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?
    I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

    The Ashcroft Marginals polls comes out in a few weeks time.
    Ah, thanks for that. I didn't read the thread on that closely enough, did I?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

    Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

    The bookies don't agree
    I agree with Andy JS. Helmer is a good choice for Ukip and his selection sends out a strong dog whistle about the party. His controversial views could bring in votes and the fact that he's an ex-Tory helps.

    I'm waiting for a few more of his views to become public and see his price soar, then back him.
    I think 5/1 is as good as it gets. So I put another tenner on Helmer. Boy I'm really going mad tonight.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    TSE the Ashcroft poll is coming out the day after the Euro elections.

    I assume we will have the pogo pollsters in a few minutes time? What will tonight be? Labour lead of 6, 10 or Avery and Compouter's blessed crossover approaching once more!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    I think it's because you have moved out of Yorkshire.

    The North-West is sapping your manly vigor.

    It is Kryptonite but with more BBC employees and Krispy Kreme donuts.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    --- Betting post ---

    If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

    (Though obviously still a longshot ;) )
    ---------------

    And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!


    I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

    The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.
    Same here and agree but it puts the one line into perspective. Plus of course and although the odds aren't the same (and hence the opportunity to win through analysis), to pick the winner in each of 6 x 15 runner races is still pretty formidable at greater than the national lottery = 15m/1.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

    The Ashcroft Marginals polls comes out in a few weeks time.
    Ah, thanks for that. I didn't read the thread on that closely enough, did I?
    Mike posted this yesterday

    There's some very interesting polling coming out on Ukip in 2015 which I've got but is embargoed until 0001 on Wednesday
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
    Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    edited May 2014
    A video for all those that insist that immigrants and their children are "just as British/English as the rest of us" etc etc

    Awate seems a nice chap

    http://www.channel4.com/news/do-non-white-britons-feel-more-english-or-british-video
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    isam said:

    Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

    £5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

    Then consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?
    So long as you stay the correct side of electoral law you'd be fine.

    If you produced this sort of stuff though http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Woolas_2010_election_leaflet.jpg and backed yourself, well you might be in trouble. I mean you'd be in trouble if you didn't back yourself but you might be in more.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
    YouGov/Sun poll: LAB 35% CON 34% UKIP 14% LDEM 9%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    oh jings where are Avery and Compouter when you need an "old married couple" to have an entertaining ding dong!
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

    The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,094
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Roger Helmer strikes me as someone who having rejected political correctness and defined himself against it, now just enjoys shocking people, being insensitive, pedantic and facetious. There is much to reject about political correctness, but kindness and humanity go a long way to bridging the gap with people. UKIP must hope there are enough secret P.C. haters out there to get him elected, because I certainly don't think he has floating voter appeal like Diane James has.

    She's from Surrey though - leader of UKIP on Waverley borough council. Eastleigh isn't too far away, but I don't know how well she'd go down in Newark.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Freggles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    I think it's because you have moved out of Yorkshire.

    The North-West is sapping your manly vigor.

    It is Kryptonite but with more BBC employees and Krispy Kreme donuts.

    I spend my time equally between Yorkshire and Manchester.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    --- Betting post ---

    If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

    (Though obviously still a longshot ;) )
    ---------------

    And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!


    I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

    The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.
    Same here and agree but it puts the one line into perspective. Plus of course and although the odds aren't the same (and hence the opportunity to win through analysis), to pick the winner in each of 6 x 15 runner races is still pretty formidable at greater than the national lottery = 15m/1.

    All bingo/lottery balls are equal, some horses more likely to win than others ;)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,283
    Tykejohnno said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
    Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

    Labour ought not to panic. The article only came out today. The lure of Ed and his gazelle-like intellect has yet to filter through.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    isam said:

    I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

    The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.
    You'll have to have the whole of pb up before the beak then.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

    @Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems :D ?!
    I fear you are confusing me with another similarly-named but all too infrequent poster ..... so that's the usual £1 fine you owe the PB social fund.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,861
    Mr. Dawning, one eagerly awaits to see if a question arises to which the Milibrain's answer is not state intervention.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    By the way folks, I'm as subtle as a brick through a window.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    edited May 2014
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    isam said:

    I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

    The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.
    So if a trainer backs his horse and tells the jockey to set a fast pace, knowing it will inconvenience its main rival, that is cheating at gambling and he should be charged with a criminal offence?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    isam said:

    Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

    £5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

    The consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?
    I believe pro jockeys are allowed to bet on themselves to win?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,861
    Mr. Eagles, I believe I speak for most pbers when I say that we have noticed this already.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

    @Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems :D ?!
    I fear you are confusing me with another similarly-named but all too infrequent poster ..... so that's the usual £1 fine you owe the PB social fund.
    Not confusing you with PtP...

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

    The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Tykejohnno said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
    Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

    May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    isam said:

    I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

    The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.
    Oh dear.

    It's a fair cop guv'nor, you got me bang to right, I'll come quietly.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Hedgehogs: why can't they just share the hedge?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2014
    isam said:

    So if a trainer backs his horse and tells the jockey to set a fast pace, knowing it will inconvenience its main rival, that is cheating at gambling and he should be charged with a criminal offence?

    I am, of course, not arguing that he should be locked up, merely that he might be guilty of an offence on a strict construction of the statute. Parliament often passes badly drafted legislation...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Iceland are through to the Eurovision final. I backed them at 250/1 earlier on, they are now down to 100/1 with Corals
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Remember all those posts about how Lab was rock solid on 38 to 39?

    Well two different YouGovs on Sunday had them on 36 and now tonight they are on 35.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,397
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

    The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

    Iceland through... good bet at 250s I reckon

    Ukraine's girl is beautiful
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

    The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

    You mean the russkies are in a - ahem - clef stick?

    Hopefully they'll have to face the music....
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

    The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

    Iceland through... good bet at 250s I reckon

    Ukraine's girl is beautiful
    I hope to have my annual PB Eurovision thread up on Friday night.

    And yes she is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    31/01/2014 Single To Win Q2 2014 @ 6/1
    Polling Specials
    When will YouGov show Conservatives level with or leading Labour? Pending £7.15

    Another hit of the crossbar.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    --- Betting post ---

    If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

    (Though obviously still a longshot ;) )
    ---------------

    And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!


    I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

    The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.
    Same here and agree but it puts the one line into perspective. Plus of course and although the odds aren't the same (and hence the opportunity to win through analysis), to pick the winner in each of 6 x 15 runner races is still pretty formidable at greater than the national lottery = 15m/1.

    All bingo/lottery balls are equal, some horses more likely to win than others ;)
    Especially if Barney Curley has anything to do with it....
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
    Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

    May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%
    An interesting comparison with 28 years ago Ms DiCanio - it will be intriguing to see how this and any similar subsequent polls impact on Dr Stephen Fisher's GE forecasts over the coming weeks and indeed how the betting markets react.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited May 2014
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Could the bloody Tories just get one f*cking level poll with Labour please. Sick of these off by 1s.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
    Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

    May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%
    You think we're going to have the equivalent of the Lawson boom ?


  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Is this another poll tonight?
    MirrorJames @MirrorJames
    A year to the election and Labour's lead tumbles to 1 point . Ed M's party 34% (-2), Cons 33% (+5) - Survation for @DailyMirror
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    @MirrorJames: A year to the election and Labour's lead tumbles to 1 point . Ed M's party 34% (-2), Cons 33% (+5) - Survation for @DailyMirror
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    MikeK said:

    Change of topic:

    I have this feeling that when the results of the referendum in the Eastern Ukraine are announced, and it goes to those favouring union with Russia, Putin will send his troops in.

    This feeling is particularly strong tonight, as Obama and Kerry denounce the referendum in pithy terms.

    "The Obama administration denounced as illegal a planned weekend referendum by pro-Russian insurgents pushing for autonomy and independence for portions of eastern Ukraine.

    Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday the referendum being planned for Sunday would be "bogus" and would not be recognized (sic) by the West.

    "We flatly reject this illegal effort to further divide Ukraine," he told reporters after meeting at the State Department with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton."

    I see that the EU and Ashton are in the mix again.

    I didn't even realise one was planned. Also can't quite see how the pro-Russian bods could organize one with heli gunships firing rockets at them. All very weird.
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