A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
I think what'll be key to UKIP seats is finding out where they put more of their resources.
Anyone know about UKIP selections in these seats and where they are?
A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
I think what'll be key to UKIP seats is finding out where they put more of their resources.
Anyone know about UKIP selections in these seats and where they are?
Oh obv Eastleigh should be on here also
Tim Aker is in Thurrock. He is one of UKIPs top men, I think that should be 3 or 4/1.. maybe shorter
SkyBet have let me have £20. Going to have to talk to Betfred people tommorow. Account is on the naughty step or something...
Betfred make an account inactive if you have not deposited for a while.
Betfred and the Tote are of course one and the same company - hence the identical odds. Unfortunately neither is offerting EW on Eurovision so SkyBet is best in this regard paying one quarter of their 150/1 win odds on the first 4.
A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
I think what'll be key to UKIP seats is finding out where they put more of their resources.
Anyone know about UKIP selections in these seats and where they are?
Oh obv Eastleigh should be on here also
Tim Aker is in Thurrock. He is one of UKIPs top men, I think that should be 3 or 4/1.. maybe shorter
Would be amazed if they didn't get 2nd
Don't say that. Pulpstar and I have a bet about UKIP second places. I could do with as few as possible.
the good economic news has to have an effect soon.... surely...
You'd think so, but I doubt it will have all that much impact, notwithstanding the occasional good poll for the Tories. In ordinary times it seems like it should shore up the Tory vote to 2010 levels or a few points above if they're lucky, but the party still seems so beset by internal troubles that if they ever got into a good position they'd be too busy shooting their own foot while digging their own grave to seize it.
Further to that it has taken so long for things to pretty much umambiguously start looking up (plenty of naysayers among economists, and they're probably right, but then again apparently no-one in authority saw a huge crash coming, so even if another period of pain is coming, it's probably inevitable so I won;t worry about it) that anyone on the fence or inclined to dislike the Tories (which is a majority of the electorate) will probably see any economic recovery as bound to happen eventually whoever was in power, in which case punishing the Tory cutters and LD betrayers can be done without fear.
Good economic news can be counter productive if the electorate don't feel the benefit.
After all why should 'they' get the benefit whilst you don't - 'they' being any group different to you.
Now compare and contrast:
Annual increase in earnings:
May 1983 +8.9% May 1987 +8.6% Mar 1992 +9.1%
RPI
May 1983 +3.7% May 1987 +4.1% Mar 1992 +4.0%
These help explain the Conservative landslide of 1983. Sure there's Foot and the Falklands but wages increasing by more than 5% above inflation makes for a happy electorate.
Likewise, wages were rising very nicely in the weeks before the Conservatives surprise victory in 1992.
By comparison RPI is at present higher than the annual increase in earnings and has been so consistently under this government.
Meanwhile 'they' get all the benefits etc.
And governments which blame all the bad things which happen during their time in office on others - for example the two Osborne manufacturing recessions - subsequently struggle to gain recognition for any good things.
A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
I think what'll be key to UKIP seats is finding out where they put more of their resources.
Anyone know about UKIP selections in these seats and where they are?
Oh obv Eastleigh should be on here also
Tim Aker is in Thurrock. He is one of UKIPs top men, I think that should be 3 or 4/1.. maybe shorter
Would be amazed if they didn't get 2nd
Don't say that. Pulpstar and I have a bet about UKIP second places. I could do with as few as possible.
depending on the Green figure, which wasn't given in the poll. UNS caveats, of course...
Eh, given SE is one of the stronger LD areas, the Greens won it on 8% last time and iirc aren't polling fantastically well I'd reckon a 7% national figure would be at the least a coinflip for a LD MEP.
To get the article for free, you need to google search "Most Ukip voters plan to stick with party in 2015"
More than half of those voting Ukip in this month’s European elections also intend to support the anti-EU party in next year’s general election, according to a new survey.
The poll of 20,000 people by YouGov for the British Election Study suggests that the Ukip vote will prove much more resilient this time than in the last election cycle. It suggests Ukip could win up to 10 per cent at the general election.
depending on the Green figure, which wasn't given in the poll. UNS caveats, of course...
Eh, given SE is one of the stronger LD areas, the Greens won it on 8% last time and iirc aren't polling fantastically well I'd reckon a 7% national figure would be at the least a coinflip for a LD MEP.
With respect, do some research on how D'Hondt works...
It may indeed be a 'coinflip', but I can only simulate using UNS. And UNS says No...
To get the article for free, you need to google search "Most Ukip voters plan to stick with party in 2015"
More than half of those voting Ukip in this month’s European elections also intend to support the anti-EU party in next year’s general election, according to a new survey.
The poll of 20,000 people by YouGov for the British Election Study suggests that the Ukip vote will prove much more resilient this time than in the last election cycle. It suggests Ukip could win up to 10 per cent at the general election.
Was told at the UKIP drink up last month that there is an "old UKIP" and "new UKIP" and "old" were pretty much on one strike and youre out...Godders fell foul
To get the article for free, you need to google search "Most Ukip voters plan to stick with party in 2015"
More than half of those voting Ukip in this month’s European elections also intend to support the anti-EU party in next year’s general election, according to a new survey.
The poll of 20,000 people by YouGov for the British Election Study suggests that the Ukip vote will prove much more resilient this time than in the last election cycle. It suggests Ukip could win up to 10 per cent at the general election.
To get the article for free, you need to google search "Most Ukip voters plan to stick with party in 2015"
More than half of those voting Ukip in this month’s European elections also intend to support the anti-EU party in next year’s general election, according to a new survey.
The poll of 20,000 people by YouGov for the British Election Study suggests that the Ukip vote will prove much more resilient this time than in the last election cycle. It suggests Ukip could win up to 10 per cent at the general election.
A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
What about Louth and Horncastle with Sir Peter Tapsell standing down?
A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.
Thank you - this means a lot to me.
My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.
I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
These were my Top Kips!
Barking Boston & Skegness Bromsgrove Dag & Rain Dudley North Halesown & Rowley Regis Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Plymouth Moor View S Bas & E Thurrock Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke on Trent South Telford Thanet North Thanet South Thurrock Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
What about Louth and Horncastle with Sir Peter Tapsell standing down?
Previous thread on banks - Investment banks were not immune from the crash either, Lehmans, Merill Lynch, Bear Stearns all went bust or were taken over, even if they were US rather than UK banks, Lehmans for example had its EU HQ in London
depending on the Green figure, which wasn't given in the poll. UNS caveats, of course...
Eh, given SE is one of the stronger LD areas, the Greens won it on 8% last time and iirc aren't polling fantastically well I'd reckon a 7% national figure would be at the least a coinflip for a LD MEP.
With respect, do some research on how D'Hondt works...
It may indeed be a 'coinflip', but I can only simulate using UNS. And UNS says No...
With respect I know how D'Hondt works, apologies if I didn't start doing the equations mid-thread.
I also know the Lib Dems have had better Euro results in SE in the past and in the couple of London polls they've been above the national figures.
So forgive me for expressing doubt at your confident 'yep'.
Comments
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
Anyone know about UKIP selections in these seats and where they are?
It would be either (UK/C/L/G/LD)
4/4/2/0/0 or 4/3/2/1/0
depending on the Green figure, which wasn't given in the poll. UNS caveats, of course...
50 pence still too big a bet for Fred !
Tim Aker is in Thurrock. He is one of UKIPs top men, I think that should be 3 or 4/1.. maybe shorter
Would be amazed if they didn't get 2nd
This sounds intriguing so I'm off to have a look! Please excuse if I don't comment until tomorrow, I'm now very tired.
More than half of those voting Ukip in this month’s European elections also intend to support the anti-EU party in next year’s general election, according to a new survey.
The poll of 20,000 people by YouGov for the British Election Study suggests that the Ukip vote will prove much more resilient this time than in the last election cycle. It suggests Ukip could win up to 10 per cent at the general election.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f7a1cfbe-d52c-11e3-9187-00144feabdc0.html#axzz30xv5WVB8
It may indeed be a 'coinflip', but I can only simulate using UNS. And UNS says No...
Was told at the UKIP drink up last month that there is an "old UKIP" and "new UKIP" and "old" were pretty much on one strike and youre out...Godders fell foul
Lady Godiva he ain't !
Is there any reason I shouldn't lay the bejeesus out of that ?
She's our best entry since Gina G in 1996.
I know we won it in 97 but Gina G was better.
Was a good song.
Famous People on the Toilet No. 97: Gina G. pic.twitter.com/FyxAmE8WS2
Jeb Bush 13% (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
Rand Paul 13% (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
Paul Ryan 12% (15%) {9%} [11%] (16%)
Mike Huckabee 10% (10%) {14%}
Chris Christie 9% (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
Rick Perry 8% (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
Scott Walker 7%
Ted Cruz 7% (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
Someone else (vol.) 4% (6%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
None/No one (vol.) 4% (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
No opinion 7% (5%) {4%} [6%] (6%)
I also know the Lib Dems have had better Euro results in SE in the past and in the couple of London polls they've been above the national figures.
So forgive me for expressing doubt at your confident 'yep'.