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  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Am I required to fulfil my normal PB role at this wedding? (i.e. to come along and apologise for all the 80s music references that have been sneaked in to a thread/speech).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Headline in today's Standard a bad one for EdM. Forget it exactly but something along the lines of hitting rich people with "ghost" properties with penal taxes
    Is there nothing the State can't fix with a tax?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Hang fire on that survation poll

    The last survation poll had Lab on a 1% lead.

    Was in March, post budget.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Is this another poll tonight?
    MirrorJames @MirrorJames
    A year to the election and Labour's lead tumbles to 1 point . Ed M's party 34% (-2), Cons 33% (+5) - Survation for @DailyMirror

    Yes - looks like a pair....of ones!

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    The correct changes on the survation poll is Lab minus 1 and con minus 1
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

    @Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems :D ?!
    I fear you are confusing me with another similarly-named but all too infrequent poster ..... so that's the usual £1 fine you owe the PB social fund.
    Not confusing you with PtP...

    Eh ....... are you sure?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

    @Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems :D ?!
    I fear you are confusing me with another similarly-named but all too infrequent poster ..... so that's the usual £1 fine you owe the PB social fund.
    Not confusing you with PtP...

    Eh ....... are you sure?
    Yes, I know you are a punter too - Oh Bloody hell sorry I meant "Backing anyone in Newark, PfP ?"

    Mea Culpa.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Could the bloody Tories just get one f*cking level poll with Labour please. Sick of these off by 1s.

    They did, Populus 23-24 April. Although with the two leads of 1 today I reckon the average Labour lead is down to about two and a half, depending on how far back you go.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    OGH tweeted about some fancy polling overnight so guess tomorrow we will all be very busy analysing everything. Off to bed. Goodnight all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789

    Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

    I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

    I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

    An independent Scotland is going to be far more left wing and far more dominated by Labour than a UK under a weak government of the Eds. And it still will be when the Eds are no more than a joke to political anoraks.

    Also to be blunt no political party has been more ground into the ground than the Scottish Conservatives.

    You really need to sort out your own problems instead of giving the wrong advice to the English Conservatives.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    corporeal said:

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Am I required to fulfil my normal PB role at this wedding? (i.e. to come along and apologise for all the 80s music references that have been sneaked in to a thread/speech).
    All the people at this wedding know me, so they would be disappointed if there weren't any pop music references.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    The correct changes on the survation poll is Lab minus 1 and con minus 1

    There was a Survation poll dated 4 April that had a Lab lead of 7
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    The correct changes on the survation poll is Lab minus 1 and con minus 1

    There was a Survation poll dated 4 April that had a Lab lead of 7
    Ah, thanks.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Pretty feeble excuses there, Mr. Eagles, but I suppose as long as we can depend on your word we have to accept them I am certainly looking forward to playing against/with you, or possibly both, later on this summer.

    Meanwhile I wonder of we can scare up some Scottish interest. Are you there MalcomG? Ah'm calling ye! Your mither was a Tory! Will you no come on and fight?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    Roger Helmer strikes me as someone who having rejected political correctness and defined himself against it, now just enjoys shocking people, being insensitive, pedantic and facetious. There is much to reject about political correctness, but kindness and humanity go a long way to bridging the gap with people. UKIP must hope there are enough secret P.C. haters out there to get him elected, because I certainly don't think he has floating voter appeal like Diane James has.

    She's from Surrey though - leader of UKIP on Waverley borough council. Eastleigh isn't too far away, but I don't know how well she'd go down in Newark.

    I agree she would not be right in this case -just using her as an example. Shame they don't appear to have someone similar in the wings. Having a female candidate as his right arm (next to Nigel, the newly selected Newark candidate will get the most publicity) would not have done Farage any harm in these last couple of weeks either.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2014
    One can only hope that the complacents on this site(inc Nick Palmer) will remain as complacent as they have been.. if crossover occurs it will be all the more enjoyable(of course if it doesn't , the obverse is true)

    I think crossover is imminent.. the good economic news has to have an effect soon.... surely...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Hang fire on that survation poll

    The last survation poll had Lab on a 1% lead.

    Was in March, post budget.

    The last Survation poll was 4th April. Con 29%, Lab 36%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    The correct changes on the survation poll is Lab minus 1 and con minus 1

    There was a Survation poll dated 4 April that had a Lab lead of 7
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Maria-Miller-Tables-FINAL1.pdf
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Pretty feeble excuses there, Mr. Eagles, but I suppose as long as we can depend on your word we have to accept them I am certainly looking forward to playing against/with you, or possibly both, later on this summer.

    Meanwhile I wonder of we can scare up some Scottish interest. Are you there MalcomG? Ah'm calling ye! Your mither was a Tory! Will you no come on and fight?
    How do we get to watch these Diplomacy games ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    FPT - Another_Richard, a report on my Mother and I's visit to Page Hall Road.

    So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.

    When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.

    Her response "I can understand why"*

    *Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Pretty feeble excuses there, Mr. Eagles, but I suppose as long as we can depend on your word we have to accept them I am certainly looking forward to playing against/with you, or possibly both layer on this summer.

    Meanwhile I wonder of we can scare up some Scottish interest. Are you there MalcomG? Ah'm calling ye! Your mother was a Tory! Will you no come on and fight?
    MalcolmG was Tory. He voted for Thatcher either once or three times according to his various accounts of his political history.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
    Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

    May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%
    You think we're going to have the equivalent of the Lawson boom ?


    We can but hope. :D

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TOPPING said:

    Headline in today's Standard a bad one for EdM. Forget it exactly but something along the lines of hitting rich people with "ghost" properties with penal taxes
    Is there nothing the State can't fix with a tax?

    This is one of the situations where the idea is a great one. Given the housing shortage in London, it's outrageous that many are left empty. Residential should be used for people to live in, not as an investment class.
  • Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Pretty feeble excuses there, Mr. Eagles, but I suppose as long as we can depend on your word we have to accept them I am certainly looking forward to playing against/with you, or possibly both, later on this summer.

    Meanwhile I wonder of we can scare up some Scottish interest. Are you there MalcomG? Ah'm calling ye! Your mither was a Tory! Will you no come on and fight?
    How do we get to watch these Diplomacy games ?
    http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play_details.php?game_id=77399

    http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=79131

    Although you need to register for an account to see the order history of the games.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:

    Headline in today's Standard a bad one for EdM. Forget it exactly but something along the lines of hitting rich people with "ghost" properties with penal taxes
    Is there nothing the State can't fix with a tax?

    This is one of the situations where the idea is a great one. Given the housing shortage in London, it's outrageous that many are left empty. Residential should be used for people to live in, not as an investment class.
    Doesn't US resident David Miliband own a multi-million pound London ghost mansion?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709
    Grim polling for Labour, not least because there's a pattern to this. So many people dabble in the realm of property leasing these days, even if it's their first flat as they save for a deposit on a house. The last thing they want is to be forced to lease it at a state-determined value for a minimum of three years. Foolish by Miliband. But we did warn him.
  • Pulpstar - No bets for me in Newark by-election - I did have a small punt on Farage standing but lost my money a few hours later when he chickened out.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    Hang fire on that survation poll

    The last survation poll had Lab on a 1% lead.

    Was in March, post budget.

    The last Survation poll was 4th April. Con 29%, Lab 36%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    That Survation is missing from the UKPR listing.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Surprising - usually the UKPR listing is much more accurate than the Wikipedia listing. Wikipedia listing has numerous errors.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited May 2014
    What I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Pretty feeble excuses there, Mr. Eagles, but I suppose as long as we can depend on your word we have to accept them I am certainly looking forward to playing against/with you, or possibly both, later on this summer.

    Meanwhile I wonder of we can scare up some Scottish interest. Are you there MalcomG? Ah'm calling ye! Your mither was a Tory! Will you no come on and fight?
    How do we get to watch these Diplomacy games ?
    Mr. Richard, Go to PlayDiplomacy.com. There are two current PB games going on at the moment: The fun one PB 2014 Mk2 and the vicious one, PB Death Match 2014. The latter of which is now in furball stage, which is something to behold (not often you get seven countries attacking each other in a glorious matrix of aggression).

    However, Diplomacy is rather worse as a spectator sport than sex. If you want to enjoy it you really have to do it. The rules are very simple. can be learned in half an hour, actually playing the game is all about negotiation and in that aspect there are no rules.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Con available at 84-1 for most seats in Euros.

    Obviously a long shot but if they really are now only 1% behind (or close to that) for GE then they could still just have a chance - and over 2 weeks to go.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    Whatt I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...

    All the swing voters moved to UKIP.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014

    the good economic news has to have an effect soon.... surely...

    You'd think so, but I doubt it will have all that much impact, notwithstanding the occasional good poll for the Tories. In ordinary times it seems like it should shore up the Tory vote to 2010 levels or a few points above if they're lucky, but the party still seems so beset by internal troubles that if they ever got into a good position they'd be too busy shooting their own foot while digging their own grave to seize it.

    Further to that it has taken so long for things to pretty much umambiguously start looking up (plenty of naysayers among economists, and they're probably right, but then again apparently no-one in authority saw a huge crash coming, so even if another period of pain is coming, it's probably inevitable so I won;t worry about it) that anyone on the fence or inclined to dislike the Tories (which is a majority of the electorate) will probably see any economic recovery as bound to happen eventually whoever was in power, in which case punishing the Tory cutters and LD betrayers can be done without fear.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    #16 When the housing crisis in London first started i.e. about ten years before it started being reported, a very large number of people the London councils wanted least were dumped in the cheaper coastal towns.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    The danger for Mr Miliband comes if the recent Tory mini-surge continues. Asked who they would put in power now, 34% say Labour, down two points on last month, while the Tories are up five points to 33%.

    Ukip are on 18% and the Lib Dems on 8%, both also down two points.



    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-become-new-prime-3505658#ixzz30yQa1dKP
    Follow us: @DailyMirror on Twitter | DailyMirror on Facebook
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    GIN1138 said:

    Whatt I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...

    All the swing voters moved to UKIP.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
    That Wiki graph hasn't been updated for almost a month - the next update is going to show it getting even tighter between Lab and Con.

    Lab trend line solidly downwards.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeL said:

    Hang fire on that survation poll

    The last survation poll had Lab on a 1% lead.

    Was in March, post budget.

    The last Survation poll was 4th April. Con 29%, Lab 36%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    That Survation is missing from the UKPR listing.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Surprising - usually the UKPR listing is much more accurate than the Wikipedia listing. Wikipedia listing has numerous errors.
    The wikipedia page, has a 'talk' page. If you know of any omissions or mistakes, let them know.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    isam said:



    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 6m
    "If the British electorate always vote for what they've always voted for, they'll always get what they've always had"

    It's a good statement, and places the responsibility for any dissatisfaction on the shoulders of those who are ultimately to blame (even if only for allowing the political classes they despise become what they are), the public themselves. We get the governments we deserve.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    GIN1138 said:

    Whatt I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...

    All the swing voters moved to UKIP.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
    Thanks. :)

    So, if "swing-voters" decide voting UKIP under a FPTP general election is pointless and decide to move to the next best thing (Conservative) Labour's stuffed even with 2010 Lib-Dems? ;)

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    MikeL said:

    Hang fire on that survation poll

    The last survation poll had Lab on a 1% lead.

    Was in March, post budget.

    The last Survation poll was 4th April. Con 29%, Lab 36%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    That Survation is missing from the UKPR listing.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Surprising - usually the UKPR listing is much more accurate than the Wikipedia listing. Wikipedia listing has numerous errors.
    The wikipedia page, has a 'talk' page. If you know of any omissions or mistakes, let them know.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    What do I do - start a new topic?

    Whoever compiles it needs to just cross-check to UKPR - UKPR is far more accurate - though not 100% perfect as tonight illustrates.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I've noticed whenever I am about to guest edit the side, the polls start to narrow.

    It's almost like the fates want me to do regular Ed is crap threads.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

    I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

    Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.
    I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.
    Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

    Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.
    I really am busy.

    I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

    Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

    Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.
    Pretty feeble excuses there, Mr. Eagles, but I suppose as long as we can depend on your word we have to accept them I am certainly looking forward to playing against/with you, or possibly both layer on this summer.

    Meanwhile I wonder of we can scare up some Scottish interest. Are you there MalcomG? Ah'm calling ye! Your mother was a Tory! Will you no come on and fight?
    MalcolmG was Tory. He voted for Thatcher either once or three times according to his various accounts of his political history.

    Is that so? Then I suppose I had better tweak my challenge. I'll come up with something for the morning.
  • Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    This could be a tremendous play to lay with Betfair on the night if Iceland were somewhere in the running and their odds were to fall to say around 20/1or 30/1.
    Unfortunately for you TSE you'll be otherwise engaged then at your wedding function.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    Could the bloody Tories just get one f*cking level poll with Labour please. Sick of these off by 1s.

    Patience, Pulpstar.

    Basil has only been retained on a zero hours contract..

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    This could be a tremendous play to lay with Betfair on the night if Iceland were somewhere in the running and their odds were to fall to say around 20/1or 30/1.
    Unfortunately for you TSE you'll be otherwise engaged then at your wedding function.
    The wedding is on the 17th, not this weekend.
  • I've noticed whenever I am about to guest edit the side, the polls start to narrow.

    It's almost like the fates want me to do regular Ed is crap threads.

    Ah, but just think of the balance you bring to the site.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Survation asked an EU Parliament question too:

    Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 7% , UKIP 31%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Survation asked an EU Parliament question too:

    Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 7% , UKIP 31%

    Link please (not that I doubt you, but I need a link to send to OGH)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Not long now till crossover... ;-)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Survation asked an EU Parliament question too:

    Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 7% , UKIP 31%

    Link please (not that I doubt you, but I need a link to send to OGH)
    It's in the Mirror article. In one of the info boxes.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-become-new-prime-3505658
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Survation asked an EU Parliament question too:

    Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 7% , UKIP 31%

    Link please (not that I doubt you, but I need a link to send to OGH)
    It's in the Mirror article. In one of the info boxes.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-become-new-prime-3505658
    Thanks.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Survation asked an EU Parliament question too:

    Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 7% , UKIP 31%

    Third place for Labour in the EU elections begins to loom.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Where are my standards?

    Two polls with shrinking Labour leads and I've not said

    "Sleazy Broken Labour On The Slide"
  • RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Rod - didn't you forecast early May for crossover time?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

    I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

    I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

    An independent Scotland is going to be far more left wing and far more dominated by Labour than a UK under a weak government of the Eds. And it still will be when the Eds are no more than a joke to political anoraks.

    Also to be blunt no political party has been more ground into the ground than the Scottish Conservatives.

    You really need to sort out your own problems instead of giving the wrong advice to the English Conservatives.

    Scottish Tories? Ground into the glaur [Anglice, mud]? Can you be serious? They aren't doing too badly considering they have the Thatcherite-Unionist albatross around their necks (that is a factual observation on my part) - they can't do much worse and will probably do a bit better in the event of independence, i.e. somewhere between EWNI Tories and LDs.

    It's the Trots that really have caught it - and the LDs next in line.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Rod - didn't you forecast early May for crossover time?
    I said 'by May'
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    bwin are 300s

    They let me have £2.61

    Tonight I tipped a 9/1 First Goalscorer, 11/4 anytime, 20/1 brace & 100/1 Hat trick.. all copped, didn't have a penny on

    I blame PB
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Just did an Opinium poll for the Euros - they asked me which region I would be voting in and then gave me a prompt in alphabetical order of the parties standing in this area - but they didn't create a mock-up of the ballot paper with the party slogans and symbols.

    If the results see the light of day it will be interesting to see whether "An Independence from Europe" registers to a significant extent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    bwin are 300s
    Cheers, this has all the hallmarks of a very decent trading bet.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    GIN1138 said:

    What I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...

    1. The BBC version of reality isn't true.
    2. The credit bubble acted as a sedative.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Hang fire on that survation poll

    The last survation poll had Lab on a 1% lead.

    Was in March, post budget.

    The last Survation poll was 4th April. Con 29%, Lab 36%

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    That Survation is missing from the UKPR listing.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    Surprising - usually the UKPR listing is much more accurate than the Wikipedia listing. Wikipedia listing has numerous errors.
    The wikipedia page, has a 'talk' page. If you know of any omissions or mistakes, let them know.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    What do I do - start a new topic?

    Scroll down to the last topic. Edit it. Scroll to the bottom, start a new heading, say your piece. then to sign off (i don't know why) add ~~~~ at the end.

    under the editing box there are 'preview' and 'save' buttons.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Just noticed that in the the North West An Independence from Europe are running an all female list for the Euros led by the former chair of the British Womens Racing Driver's club Helen Bashford.

    Less pleasingly there are at least a couple of former BNP members elsewhere on their lists.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Survation asked an EU Parliament question too:

    Con 24%, Lab 28%, LD 7% , UKIP 31%

    Third place for Labour in the EU elections begins to loom.

    !!!!!!!!!!!

    I hope not. I bet on the ukip-lab-con trifecta.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Changes since the Survation Euros poll at the start of April

    Con plus 3, Lab Minus 6, LD Minus 2, UKIP plus 4

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Changes since the Survation Euros poll at the start of April

    Con plus 3, Lab Minus 6, LD Minus 2, UKIP plus 4

    UKIP needs a bigger font.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    bwin are 300s
    Cheers, this has all the hallmarks of a very decent trading bet.
    Skybet "Enhanced Win Only"

    500/1!!

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/enhanced-win-only
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    bwin are 300s
    Cheers, this has all the hallmarks of a very decent trading bet.
    Skybet "Enhanced Win Only"

    500/1!!

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/enhanced-win-only
    Bloody Hell!
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    What does enhanced win only mean?

    And why on earth are the UK 8/1?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    What I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...

    At one point 2010 Conservatives were more important for the Con to Lab swing than the 2010 Lib Dems. It's a myth that there has been no movement between the Conservatives and Labour.
  • The biggest and as far as I am concerned the best news story of the day is Patten's resignation as BBC Chairman, although of course I'm sorry that this resulted from serious ill health.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    corporeal said:

    What does enhanced win only mean?

    And why on earth are the UK 8/1?

    Just means no each way
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    bwin are 300s
    Cheers, this has all the hallmarks of a very decent trading bet.
    Skybet "Enhanced Win Only"

    500/1!!

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/enhanced-win-only
    Bloody Hell!
    Don't know how youd work this out but PP are 11/2 top 10 finish,

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/top-10-finish
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789

    FPT - Another_Richard, a report on my Mother and I's visit to Page Hall Road.

    So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.

    When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.

    Her response "I can understand why"*

    *Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.

    FPT - Another_Richard, a report on my Mother and I's visit to Page Hall Road.

    So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.

    When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.

    Her response "I can understand why"*

    *Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.

    I know someone who lives in Dore and dislikes his neighbours so much that he's thinking about renting out his house to an extended Roma family if he moves away.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    The biggest and as far as I am concerned the best news story of the day is Patten's resignation as BBC Chairman, although of course I'm sorry that this resulted from serious ill health.

    I think Lord Pearson would be the most entertaining replacement. The wails from Broadcasting House would be heard in Hull. :-)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    FPT - Another_Richard, a report on my Mother and I's visit to Page Hall Road.

    So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.

    When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.

    Her response "I can understand why"*

    *Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.

    FPT - Another_Richard, a report on my Mother and I's visit to Page Hall Road.

    So we went back, my mother was back to saying how disgusting the Roma are, begging and being an annoyance and doing bad things in the street.

    When we got back into the car, I said, she was being far too harsh on the Roma, and they were a persecuted race, that Hitler had tried to wipe them out.

    Her response "I can understand why"*

    *Not her exact words, this conversation was in Urdu.

    I know someone who lives in Dore and dislikes his neighbours so much that he's thinking about renting out his house to an extended Roma family if he moves away.

    The rest of the residents of Dore would go all Wicker Man on that person.
  • Will the knives come out for EdM should Labour fall behind in the polls?
    Probably not - we're now too close to a General Election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Iceland still on offer at 250/1 with the Tote, etc. but only 33/1 with Ladbrokes. Personally I blame Shadsy.

    250/1 with Betfred, just topping up now.
    bwin are 300s
    Cheers, this has all the hallmarks of a very decent trading bet.
    Skybet "Enhanced Win Only"

    500/1!!

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/enhanced-win-only
    Bloody Hell!
    Don't know how youd work this out but PP are 11/2 top 10 finish,

    http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/top-10-finish
    Eurovision does occasionally throw up some bizarre prices.

    Last year I think you could back Greece at 66/1 and 10/1 on the night.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Another day, another mad lefty policy from labour. Given it looks as though the Tories are playing them long so they can spout and more lefty crud, and the lead is now only one point, its sure going to hard for the self confessed intellectual powerhouse Mili to win.
    The more the broken record of "cost of living crisis" is repeated, the more it it clear that Miliband believes it to be a real & sustainable fact and all the great economic numbers are fake.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    #12 What proportion of the housing bubble is caused by help to buy and what proportion by the flood of money from the BRICs? Osborne may not be able to stop it if it's mostly the latter.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Will the knives come out for EdM should Labour fall behind in the polls?
    Probably not - we're now too close to a General Election.

    Not a lot of point, who would they replace him with?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
    Yup...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
    Yup...
    Probably? Off the top of my head 7% would still be borderline for the SE region.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Whatt I can't understand is how has Labour gone from 43% in 2012 to 35% in 2014 when 2010 Lib-Dems are solid and they never secured many 2010 Conservative's in the first place?

    Has there been a mass suicide pact of old Trots that we've not been told about? Have thousands of Labour voters gone the same way as the missing Malaysia Airline?

    I don't understand what's happened...

    All the swing voters moved to UKIP.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/40907/labour-are-the-big-losers-from-ukips-surge/
    Thanks. :)

    So, if "swing-voters" decide voting UKIP under a FPTP general election is pointless and decide to move to the next best thing (Conservative) Labour's stuffed even with 2010 Lib-Dems? ;)

    Lord Ashcroft wrote something on this:

    "...one in ten UKIP supporters both agreeing that a vote for the party increased the chances of a Miliband victory and saying this might make a difference to how they ended up casting their ballot."

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/03/vote-ukip-get/
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
    Yup...
    Splendid! Many thanks Mr Crosby.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Bet placement confirmation

    We're sorry but we can't accept such stake at the moment, but we can accept a lower stake.

    Please review and place bet. You have 19 seconds to accept the offer.

    £0.50 Single
    Market Selection Price Hcp
    Eurovision Song Contest 2014
    Eurovision Song Contest 2014 Outright
    Iceland 200/1
    Total stake £ 0.50
    Estimated return £ 100.50
    Full stake £ 0.50
    Full estimated return £ 100.50

    The minimum stake is 50 p tho !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Selection Odds Stake Returns Maximum potential returns including stake amount. Receipt More
    Iceland 501.00 £10.27 £5,145.27
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Selection Odds Stake Returns Maximum potential returns including stake amount. Receipt More
    Iceland 501.00 £10.27 £5,145.27

    You swine! Having a Skybet account!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Thank you - this means a lot to me.

    My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.

    I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
    Yup...
    Splendid! Many thanks Mr Crosby.
    I don't think he's right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Bet placement confirmation

    We're sorry but we can't accept such stake at the moment, but we can accept a lower stake.

    Please review and place bet. You have 19 seconds to accept the offer.

    £0.50 Single
    Market Selection Price Hcp
    Eurovision Song Contest 2014
    Eurovision Song Contest 2014 Outright
    Iceland 200/1
    Total stake £ 0.50
    Estimated return £ 100.50
    Full stake £ 0.50
    Full estimated return £ 100.50

    The minimum stake is 50 p tho !

    SkyBet and BetFred are letting me put up 15quid a pop.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    antifrank said:

    Strange town: London 2015

    A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

    Thank you - this means a lot to me.

    My intention is not to post a blog so much as to do some thinking and then put my thoughts up online for others to see and vehemently disagree with if necessary. I'm particularly grateful to anotherDave, who has very different views from me but who has helped me reconsider my thinking on what's coming next on a few key points.

    I'm actually proudest of today's post, where I think I've spotted something that hasn't been fully appreciated before.
    You should be very proud of your blog.

    I suspect I'll be doing a few threads based on your blog!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Selection Odds Stake Returns Maximum potential returns including stake amount. Receipt More
    Iceland 501.00 £10.27 £5,145.27

    Wow! Betfair presumably?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
    Yup...
    Splendid! Many thanks Mr Crosby.
    I don't think he's right.
    Don't worry, I am...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    SkyBet have let me have £20. Going to have to talk to Betfred people tommorow. Account is on the naughty step or something...
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RodCrosby said:

    corporeal said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Not long now till crossover... ;-)

    Do the LDs lose all their MEPs on 7%?
    Yup...
    Splendid! Many thanks Mr Crosby.
    I don't think he's right.
    Don't worry, I am...
    And your response on the South East?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    edited May 2014
    kle4 said:

    the good economic news has to have an effect soon.... surely...

    You'd think so, but I doubt it will have all that much impact, notwithstanding the occasional good poll for the Tories. In ordinary times it seems like it should shore up the Tory vote to 2010 levels or a few points above if they're lucky, but the party still seems so beset by internal troubles that if they ever got into a good position they'd be too busy shooting their own foot while digging their own grave to seize it.

    Further to that it has taken so long for things to pretty much umambiguously start looking up (plenty of naysayers among economists, and they're probably right, but then again apparently no-one in authority saw a huge crash coming, so even if another period of pain is coming, it's probably inevitable so I won;t worry about it) that anyone on the fence or inclined to dislike the Tories (which is a majority of the electorate) will probably see any economic recovery as bound to happen eventually whoever was in power, in which case punishing the Tory cutters and LD betrayers can be done without fear.
    Good economic news can be counter productive if the electorate don't feel the benefit.

    After all why should 'they' get the benefit whilst you don't - 'they' being any group different to you.

    Now compare and contrast:

    Annual increase in earnings:

    May 1983 +8.9%
    May 1987 +8.6%
    Mar 1992 +9.1%

    RPI

    May 1983 +3.7%
    May 1987 +4.1%
    Mar 1992 +4.0%

    These help explain the Conservative landslide of 1983. Sure there's Foot and the Falklands but wages increasing by more than 5% above inflation makes for a happy electorate.

    Likewise, wages were rising very nicely in the weeks before the Conservatives surprise victory in 1992.

    By comparison RPI is at present higher than the annual increase in earnings and has been so consistently under this government.

    Meanwhile 'they' get all the benefits etc.

This discussion has been closed.