politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open

If you’re going to be up, All Night Long, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

Read the full story here

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Pulpstar

Evening !

corporeal

FPT

anotherDave said:

Quincel said:

GeoffM said:

isam said:

Mr Helmer was dismissive of the odds, adding: "I can't put on a bet as I would be breaking election rules.

Okay, I know that I should know this ... but ... is this true?

I don't know for sure, but I was always under the impression it wasn't, and there were no rules whatsoever governing political betting.

Isn't there a general rule about using insider information?

Or participants having a financial interest in the outcome? The obvious danger here would be people betting against themselves, and sabotaging their campaign.

I can't find any election rules against it.

The biggest danger would be the over/under of votes for those joke candidates the bookies sometimes offer. I've always wondered whether anything would stop 51 locals just putting bets on and then going and voting themselves money.

I think Helmer's got it wrong tbh.

Freggles

Who is going to leave the realms of mere mortals and embrace legendhood by joining the PB 2014 Mk3 Diplomacy game?

Password catsandkittens

MikeK

Bugger!caught by thread change, again.

Change of topic:

I have this feeling that when the results of the referendum in the Eastern Ukraine are announced, and it goes to those favouring union with Russia, Putin will send his troops in.

This feeling is particularly strong tonight, as Obama and Kerry denounce the referendum in pithy terms.

"The Obama administration denounced as illegal a planned weekend referendum by pro-Russian insurgents pushing for autonomy and independence for portions of eastern Ukraine.

Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday the referendum being planned for Sunday would be "bogus" and would not be recognized (sic) by the West.

"We flatly reject this illegal effort to further divide Ukraine," he told reporters after meeting at the State Department with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton."

I see that the EU and Ashton are in the mix again.

corporeal

Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

Pulpstar

corporeal said:

Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

Next

corporeal said:

Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?

Pulpstar

Bloody bookies can't add up !

Still if I push a missed 50p on an 8-1 shot that hacked up at 5-1 I'm probably going to make the ban list

Morris_Dancer

Interesting piece about Chinese politics, cleaning up corruption and so forth:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27289321

The tiger references remind me of The Tiger Killers, one of the books (if you go for separate volumes rather than a boxed set) in the Outlaws of the Marsh. It's a sort of Robin Hood in China.

Pulpstar

Next said:

corporeal said:

Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?

Given his position in both games he has every chance.

Easterross

Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

TheScreamingEagles

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

TheScreamingEagles

Also I've backed Iceland to win the Eurovision.

I've been impressed by them tonight.

250/1 with Corals.

Now back to the semi.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

corporeal

Next said:

corporeal said:

Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?

Hadn't put it together before, but I seem to have invaded Pulpstar in both almost simultaneously.

AndyJS

I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

TheScreamingEagles

corporeal said:

Next said:

corporeal said:

Freggles, I would but I've already got two pb diplomacy games on the go. If you're still stuck then I'll join after finishing whichever game I win faster.

Do you have intellectual self-confidence about winning?

Hadn't put it together before, but I seem to have invaded Pulpstar in both almost simultaneously.

*Innuendo klaxon alert*

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, the Kaiser and Czar didn't fare very well. And Caesar was inferior to Augustus.

TheScreamingEagles

AndyJS said:

I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

The bookies don't agree

JohnLilburne

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.

That's mainly because Augustus pinched it.

TheScreamingEagles

JohnLilburne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.

That's mainly because Augustus pinched it.

Shush, he picked it, because he wanted a name that would be both feared and respected for military prowess.

Pulpstar

--- Betting post ---

If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

(Though obviously still a longshot )
---------------

MonikerDiCanio

Easterross said:

Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

Cameron and EdM did the same degree at the same University. Ed got a Second,Cameron got a First. EdM's chief claim to mental excellence is his ability to solve the Rubik's Cube quite rapidly.

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

The bookies don't agree

I agree with Andy JS. Helmer is a good choice for Ukip and his selection sends out a strong dog whistle about the party. His controversial views could bring in votes and the fact that he's an ex-Tory helps.

shadsy

There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

TheScreamingEagles

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

The bookies don't agree

I agree with Andy JS. Helmer is a good choice for Ukip and his selection sends out a strong dog whistle about the party. His controversial views could bring in votes and the fact that he's an ex-Tory helps.

I'm waiting for a few more of his views to become public and see his price soar, then back him.

AndyJS

I've put another £50 on UKIP at 5/1. It'll make election night interesting even if I lose.

TheScreamingEagles

shadsy said:

There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

Didn't the Humberside Police Commissioner back himself at 100/1 to win without any problems?

Edit: Mr Grove referred to defying the odds to win the election.

Bookmaker William Hill had given him odds of 100/1 at one stage in the campaign.

He said: "Thank you William Hill for that windfall, on behalf of some of my campaign members who put a bet on."

William Hill said they had taken one bet of £10 at 100/1 on Mr Grove and two bets of £100 at 10/1.

http://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/Matthew-Grove-beats-John-Prescott-Humberside/story-17339710-detail/story.html

JohnLilburne

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnLilburne said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Caesar really liked diplomacy, judging by how long he stayed in Bithynia...

Yet they still made his name the byword for Kings.

That's mainly because Augustus pinched it.

Shush, he picked it, because he wanted a name that would be both feared and respected for military prowess.

I think it was more a matter of factional politics, and the desire to not be associated with that nutter Marcus Antonius.

peter_from_putney

Helmer - personally I never trust anyone whose tie is a Windsor knot. Still, unlike Allardyce, at least he fastens the top button of his shirt.

volcanopete

The Blue Guerilla thinks Farage is angling for Portsmouth South.

http://www.theblueguerilla.co.uk/2014/05/hancock-under-pressure-from-ukip-after.html

isam

Clement Freud

"In his column in Racing Post, issue of 23 August 2006, he wrote about his election to Parliament in a by-election: "Politically, I was an anti-Conservative unable to join a Labour party hell-bent on nationalising everything that moved, so when a by-election occurred in East Anglia, where I lived and live, I stood as a Liberal and was fortunate in getting in. Ladbrokes quoted me at 33-1 in this three-horse contest, so Ladbrokes paid for me to have rather more secretarial and research staff than other MPs, which helped to keep me in for five parliaments.""

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clement_Freud#Political_career

TheScreamingEagles

O/T - I saw a Scottish European Elections ballot paper today, and some of the tag lines were interesting, in order as they appear on the ballot paper.

Britain First - Defending The Union 2014

BNP - We can make Scotland Better

Conservative Party - Scottish Conservatives vote no to Independence

Labour Party - No Tag Line

Liberal Democrats - Scottish Liberal Democrats

NO2EU - Yes to Workers Rights

Scottish Green Party - No Tag Line

SNP - Make Scotland's Mark in Europe

UKIP - No Tag Line

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Helmer - personally I never trust anyone whose tie is a Windsor knot. Still, unlike Allardyce, at least he fastens the top button of his shirt.

http://www.theblueguerilla.co.uk/2013/11/another-d-day-for-mike-hancock-mp.html

Life_ina_market_town

shadsy said:

There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

Consider the following scenario: Candidate A is the favourite to win the election. He puts £1,000 on candidate B at 5/1. On the day before the election, on live television, candidate A makes a speech denying the Holocaust, with the intention of losing the election. Candidate A has interfered with the event or process to which the gambling relates. Surely he is criminally liable by virtue of section 42(1) of the Gambling Act 2005?

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

I've put another £50 on UKIP at 5/1. It'll make election night interesting even if I lose.

Myself and astateofdenmark are opposing you with the Conservatives, Mike with UKIP.

My 30-1 still unmatched on Betfair !

isam

Could the Lord become a Kipper?

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 6m
"If the British electorate always vote for what they've always voted for, they'll always get what they've always had"

Luckyguy1983

Roger Helmer strikes me as someone who having rejected political correctness and defined himself against it, now just enjoys shocking people, being insensitive, pedantic and facetious. There is much to reject about political correctness, but kindness and humanity go a long way to bridging the gap with people. UKIP must hope there are enough secret P.C. haters out there to get him elected, because I certainly don't think he has floating voter appeal like Diane James has.

peter_from_putney

Strange town: London 2015

A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspects which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

TheScreamingEagles

I think it is ok for you to back yourself to win in an election, but not OK to back yourself to lose.

Gawd knows what happens with spread betting.

isam

Life_ina_market_town said:

shadsy said:

There's certainly no rule I have ever heard of that would stop Roger Helmer or anyone else having a bet on the result of an election, even if they are a participant.

Consider the following scenario: Candidate A is the favourite to win the election. He puts £1,000 on candidate B at 5/1. On the day before the election, on live television, candidate A makes a speech denying the Holocaust, with the intention of losing the election. Candidate A has interfered with the event or process to which the gambling relates. Surely he is criminally liable by virtue of section 42(1) of the Gambling Act 2005?

Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

£5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

--- Betting post ---

If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

(Though obviously still a longshot )
---------------

And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!

Easterross

MonikerDiCanio said:

Easterross said:

Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

Cameron and EdM did the same degree at the same University. Ed got a Second,Cameron got a First. EdM's chief claim to mental excellence is his ability to solve the Rubik's Cube quite rapidly.

For that alone he should be barred from ever becoming PM. Rubik's Cube was the work of the devil

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Strange town: London 2015

A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

@Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems ?!

TheScreamingEagles

Easterross said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Easterross said:

Evening colleagues, just a thought, if Ed did make that remark comparing himself to David Cameron, he clearly cheated at his O'level English because his grammar is shockingly bad.

I may be wrong but I strongly suspect there is a little unit deep in the recesses of Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street working on models for Scotland and rUK post independence and that it is having regular chats with the senior civil servants in Edinburgh and Dover House.

I am a fan of Jacob Rees-Mogg but he is wrong on a Tory-UKIP pact. I like many of the PB Kippers but sorry chaps we need to grind you into the ground like an overworked dockside hooker, if you will forgive the totally non-PC pun. You seem happy to welcome an Ed+Ed government as a worthwhile price of getting some Euro sceptic government at some time in the next century. I am not cash rich enough to contemplate that and would rather live in an Independent Scotland than a UK ruined once more by the Labour Party.

Cameron and EdM did the same degree at the same University. Ed got a Second,Cameron got a First. EdM's chief claim to mental excellence is his ability to solve the Rubik's Cube quite rapidly.

For that alone he should be barred from ever becoming PM. Rubik's Cube was the work of the devil

As it is the lagershed.

What does a Rubik's cube and a penis have in common?

The longer you play with them, the harder they get.

Pulpstar

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

--- Betting post ---

If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

(Though obviously still a longshot )
---------------

And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!

I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.

Life_ina_market_town

isam said:

Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

£5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

Then consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?

corporeal

isam said:

Could the Lord become a Kipper?

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 6m
"If the British electorate always vote for what they've always voted for, they'll always get what they've always had"

A forgettable x factor winner?

Quincel

Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

Easterross

Most important news of the day, in what was apparently a dreadfully dull match, Ross County has beaten Hibs 1-0 thereby avoiding the drop and creating the possibility of both Edinburgh clubs being demoted this season. As Jack W would say 'titters'

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

The Ashcroft Marginals polls comes out in a few weeks time.

isam

Life_ina_market_town said:

isam said:

Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

£5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

Then consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?

I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

Quincel

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

The Ashcroft Marginals polls comes out in a few weeks time.

Ah, thanks for that. I didn't read the thread on that closely enough, did I?

MikeK

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AndyJS said:

I think Helmer is an inspired choice by UKIP. The by-election is now too close to call IMO.

Awaiting an Ashcroft constituency poll with interest.

The bookies don't agree

I agree with Andy JS. Helmer is a good choice for Ukip and his selection sends out a strong dog whistle about the party. His controversial views could bring in votes and the fact that he's an ex-Tory helps.

I'm waiting for a few more of his views to become public and see his price soar, then back him.

I think 5/1 is as good as it gets. So I put another tenner on Helmer. Boy I'm really going mad tonight.

Easterross

TSE the Ashcroft poll is coming out the day after the Euro elections.

I assume we will have the pogo pollsters in a few minutes time? What will tonight be? Labour lead of 6, 10 or Avery and Compouter's blessed crossover approaching once more!

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.

Freggles

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

I think it's because you have moved out of Yorkshire.

The North-West is sapping your manly vigor.

It is Kryptonite but with more BBC employees and Krispy Kreme donuts.

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

--- Betting post ---

If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

(Though obviously still a longshot )
---------------

And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!

I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.

Same here and agree but it puts the one line into perspective. Plus of course and although the odds aren't the same (and hence the opportunity to win through analysis), to pick the winner in each of 6 x 15 runner races is still pretty formidable at greater than the national lottery = 15m/1.

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

Anyone got any general news about this poll embargoed until midnight tonight (unless I've misunderstood and it's tomorrow night). I think it's an Ashcroft mega-poll of marginals, is that confirmed? Any chance of it being Newark?

The Ashcroft Marginals polls comes out in a few weeks time.

Ah, thanks for that. I didn't read the thread on that closely enough, did I?

Mike posted this yesterday

There's some very interesting polling coming out on Ukip in 2015 which I've got but is embargoed until 0001 on Wednesday

Tykejohnno

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

isam

A video for all those that insist that immigrants and their children are "just as British/English as the rest of us" etc etc

Awate seems a nice chap

http://www.channel4.com/news/do-non-white-britons-feel-more-english-or-british-video

Pulpstar

Life_ina_market_town said:

isam said:

Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

£5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

Then consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?

So long as you stay the correct side of electoral law you'd be fine.

If you produced this sort of stuff though http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Woolas_2010_election_leaflet.jpg and backed yourself, well you might be in trouble. I mean you'd be in trouble if you didn't back yourself but you might be in more.

Easterross

Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
YouGov/Sun poll: LAB 35% CON 34% UKIP 14% LDEM 9%

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.

I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.

Easterross

oh jings where are Avery and Compouter when you need an "old married couple" to have an entertaining ding dong!

Life_ina_market_town

isam said:

I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.

JohnLilburne

Luckyguy1983 said:

Roger Helmer strikes me as someone who having rejected political correctness and defined himself against it, now just enjoys shocking people, being insensitive, pedantic and facetious. There is much to reject about political correctness, but kindness and humanity go a long way to bridging the gap with people. UKIP must hope there are enough secret P.C. haters out there to get him elected, because I certainly don't think he has floating voter appeal like Diane James has.

She's from Surrey though - leader of UKIP on Waverley borough council. Eastleigh isn't too far away, but I don't know how well she'd go down in Newark.

TheScreamingEagles

Freggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

I think it's because you have moved out of Yorkshire.

The North-West is sapping your manly vigor.

It is Kryptonite but with more BBC employees and Krispy Kreme donuts.

I spend my time equally between Yorkshire and Manchester.

Pulpstar

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

--- Betting post ---

If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

(Though obviously still a longshot )
---------------

And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!

I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.

Same here and agree but it puts the one line into perspective. Plus of course and although the odds aren't the same (and hence the opportunity to win through analysis), to pick the winner in each of 6 x 15 runner races is still pretty formidable at greater than the national lottery = 15m/1.

All bingo/lottery balls are equal, some horses more likely to win than others

Stark_Dawning

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

Labour ought not to panic. The article only came out today. The lure of Ed and his gazelle-like intellect has yet to filter through.

Pulpstar

Life_ina_market_town said:

isam said:

I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.

You'll have to have the whole of pb up before the beak then.

peter_from_putney

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Strange town: London 2015

A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

@Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems ?!

I fear you are confusing me with another similarly-named but all too infrequent poster ..... so that's the usual £1 fine you owe the PB social fund.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dawning, one eagerly awaits to see if a question arises to which the Milibrain's answer is not state intervention.

TheScreamingEagles

By the way folks, I'm as subtle as a brick through a window.

isam

Life_ina_market_town said:

isam said:

I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.

So if a trainer backs his horse and tells the jockey to set a fast pace, knowing it will inconvenience its main rival, that is cheating at gambling and he should be charged with a criminal offence?

corporeal

Life_ina_market_town said:

isam said:

Yeah surely they could only back themselves?

£5 to lay on BF UKIP 5.5 ARB!!!!

The consider the following: Candidate B is the favourite. Candidate A puts £1000 on himself at 5/1. The day before the election, candidate A makes a speech strongly attacking candidate B's character, with the intent of winning the election, and does so against all expectations. Is candidate A criminally liable?

I believe pro jockeys are allowed to bet on themselves to win?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I believe I speak for most pbers when I say that we have noticed this already.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

peter_from_putney said:

Strange town: London 2015

A terrific piece by antifrank on his new and most absorbing blog. I do hope he'll keep this going - particularly the betting aspect which are all too absent these days on PB.com itself.

Backing anyone in Newark, PtP ?

@Shadsy How is the Newark book looking, who is best and worst results ? Anyone lumping on the Lib Dems ?!

I fear you are confusing me with another similarly-named but all too infrequent poster ..... so that's the usual £1 fine you owe the PB social fund.

Not confusing you with PtP...

TheScreamingEagles

The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

MonikerDiCanio

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%

corporeal

Life_ina_market_town said:

isam said:

I don't think so. If that worked everyone would do it to win elections wouldn't they?

The statute says that a person is guilty of an offence if he cheats at gambling. It is immaterial whether he improves his chances of winning or wins anything. Cheating at gambling may, in particular, consist of interference in the event or process to which the gambling relates. On a strict construction, it is arguable that a person commits an offence if he backs a party to win a seat, and then campaigns for the party, or even votes for it.

Oh dear.

It's a fair cop guv'nor, you got me bang to right, I'll come quietly.

Tim_B

Hedgehogs: why can't they just share the hedge?

Life_ina_market_town

isam said:

So if a trainer backs his horse and tells the jockey to set a fast pace, knowing it will inconvenience its main rival, that is cheating at gambling and he should be charged with a criminal offence?

I am, of course, not arguing that he should be locked up, merely that he might be guilty of an offence on a strict construction of the statute. Parliament often passes badly drafted legislation...

TheScreamingEagles

Iceland are through to the Eurovision final. I backed them at 250/1 earlier on, they are now down to 100/1 with Corals

MikeL

Remember all those posts about how Lab was rock solid on 38 to 39?

Well two different YouGovs on Sunday had them on 36 and now tonight they are on 35.

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

Iceland through... good bet at 250s I reckon

Ukraine's girl is beautiful

Tim_B

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

You mean the russkies are in a - ahem - clef stick?

Hopefully they'll have to face the music....

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.

I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.

Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Ruskies have been booed during the Eurovision semi final.

The Eurovision song contest is the true voice of the people of Europe.

Iceland through... good bet at 250s I reckon

Ukraine's girl is beautiful

I hope to have my annual PB Eurovision thread up on Friday night.

And yes she is.

Pulpstar

31/01/2014 Single To Win Q2 2014 @ 6/1
Polling Specials
When will YouGov show Conservatives level with or leading Labour? Pending £7.15

Another hit of the crossbar.

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

--- Betting post ---

If you like long odds, big win bets but don't play the lottery because the odds are just so fundamentally poor then you could do worse than having a go on the Scoop 6 which will have a £7.5 million fund this Saturday. Multiple rollovers mean it is +EV to play now

(Though obviously still a longshot )
---------------

And be aware that your £10 will be up against syndicates with hundreds of thousands of pounds to spend!

I'm in one of those, a 5000ish (Free !) member one. I'll play a line for myself though, which will most likely be within their selections for 5/6 with perhaps 1 perm line changed.

The odds don't change with 1 or 2000 lines though.

Same here and agree but it puts the one line into perspective. Plus of course and although the odds aren't the same (and hence the opportunity to win through analysis), to pick the winner in each of 6 x 15 runner races is still pretty formidable at greater than the national lottery = 15m/1.

All bingo/lottery balls are equal, some horses more likely to win than others

Especially if Barney Curley has anything to do with it....

peter_from_putney

MonikerDiCanio said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%

An interesting comparison with 28 years ago Ms DiCanio - it will be intriguing to see how this and any similar subsequent polls impact on Dr Stephen Fisher's GE forecasts over the coming weeks and indeed how the betting markets react.

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I would play diplomacy, but I think I lack the prerequisite skills to be a diplomat.

I'm just too damn subtle to be a diplomat.

Ha, prove it! PlayDiplomacy.com, navigate to PB 2014 Mk3 and sign up (password is catsandkittens). As a smart-arse, stonkingly well paid lawyer you ought to be able to negotiate the snot of us poor mortals. So come on then, big boy, if you think you are subtle enough come and have a go.

I'm far too busy for the next six weeks, I promise to play mid June onwards.

Yeah, I got your name. ya big Jessie. I am too subtle for oiks like you becomes I am rather busy at present he moment you are called. Oh, see you Jimmy! Ah see you! Next game and your in an we will see how subtle ye are.

Meanwhile, we are still one short for the MK3 game. Its a friendly game, not a death match or anything nasty, ideal fr a new player wanting to get involved in a fascinating hobby.

I really am busy.

I've got a wedding to go to next weekend, and I'm the best man, and I've not written the speech yet.

Then the 5 days later, I begin a long stint as Guest Editor of PB, then after my stint I go on holiday for a bit

Edit: If I'm not properly focussed on the game, then I'll be so bad, you'll think I'm a Carthaginian with the crapness of my strategy and tactics.

Pulpstar

Could the bloody Tories just get one f*cking level poll with Labour please. Sick of these off by 1s.

another_richard

MonikerDiCanio said:

Tykejohnno said:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn · 50 secs
Just one year to go til polling day 2015 tmrw, and our YouGov tonight has Labour on just a 1 point lead: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%

May 1986 LAB 39% CON 28% LIB/SDP 30%

You think we're going to have the equivalent of the Lawson boom ?

Easterross

Is this another poll tonight?
MirrorJames @MirrorJames
A year to the election and Labour's lead tumbles to 1 point . Ed M's party 34% (-2), Cons 33% (+5) - Survation for @DailyMirror

CarlottaVance

@MirrorJames: A year to the election and Labour's lead tumbles to 1 point . Ed M's party 34% (-2), Cons 33% (+5) - Survation for @DailyMirror

MrJones

FPT

MikeK said:

Change of topic:

I have this feeling that when the results of the referendum in the Eastern Ukraine are announced, and it goes to those favouring union with Russia, Putin will send his troops in.

This feeling is particularly strong tonight, as Obama and Kerry denounce the referendum in pithy terms.

"The Obama administration denounced as illegal a planned weekend referendum by pro-Russian insurgents pushing for autonomy and independence for portions of eastern Ukraine.

Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday the referendum being planned for Sunday would be "bogus" and would not be recognized (sic) by the West.

"We flatly reject this illegal effort to further divide Ukraine," he told reporters after meeting at the State Department with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton."

I see that the EU and Ashton are in the mix again.

I didn't even realise one was planned. Also can't quite see how the pro-Russian bods could organize one with heli gunships firing rockets at them. All very weird.