politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden: tough seasoned candidate or bumbling geriatric?
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Like every other sport, they're flapping about enormous financial losses and engaging in wishful thinking about how quickly things might get back to (something approximating to) normal.Benpointer said:
They really don't get this do they?CatMan said:F1 News: "F1 considers two-day race weekends to help stalled season get to finish line"
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/28/formula-one-radical-solutions-lights-green-on-season-coronavirus
A focus on getting the 2021 season off the ground would be more appropriate.0 -
Not that many generations, it really is a very recent fiction. And he was talking about what they are permitted (as far as anyone in Scotland is concerned) to do, not what they in fact do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Now you are being ridiculous.Theuniondivvie said:
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.Charles said:
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.Theuniondivvie said:
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kiltsTheuniondivvie said:
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malcmalcolmg said:
Lovely day here for a changeIanB2 said:Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
My wife, our children, and grandchildren do not wear any old tartan, they wear their family tartan going back generations
Seems you have the daft idea you cannot be Scots unless you live in Scotland0 -
betting wise i have had a go at some Australian dog racing, Swedish horses, Belarussian football and a thing called League of Legends, which I think is real people playing computer games, like space invaders or similar.algarkirk said:It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
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I wonder what the highest placed Hall & Oates will be?No_Offence_Alan said:My normal Saturday involves watching sport. I am currently watching 101 Feelgood Anthems of the 80s.
My money would be on "I Can't Go For That (No Can Do)".0 -
I wouldn't expect any kind of derision from them, more like a hearty round of applause.IshmaelZ said:
You'd be surprised. They are a tolerant lot.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Don't you think that even Highlanders might respond in some fashion to Charles wandering the Highlands wearing nothing but a scarf?IshmaelZ said:
Glasgow? Kilts are a highland thing, and no one in the highlands gives a monkeys about what you wear.Charles said:
Sure. And if I put up a flagpole in the front garden no one* would give a sh1t. Technically against the rules.Theuniondivvie said:
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.Charles said:
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.Theuniondivvie said:
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kiltsTheuniondivvie said:
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malcmalcolmg said:
Lovely day here for a changeIanB2 said:Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
However it’s really a matter of courtesy. Technically I’m entitled to wear Graham tartan (as a good Glaswegian boy) but the only thing I wear occasionally is a scarf. It would feel like passing myself off as something I’m not. In the same way, I’d be slightly peeved if someone was to adopt my logo for their own use.0 -
Mr. Better, I was just reading about stuff like that the other day.
There's going to be a virtual Grand National this year. In America, some people are betting on maximum temperatures in various cities.0 -
To clarify: not wearing a watch is great. Everything else is clearly not to be wished on us all, though so far I and Mrs Owl are bearing up well.kinabalu said:
Yes I'm doing OK so far too. Wouldn't say it's great, as such, but things are perfectly tolerable from my point of view. Really hope I don't get the virus though. It's one thing reading about it, running the numbers, debating its impact on the economy and on the world in general, quite another to actually get sick with the dreadful thing. Fingers crossed for me - and for one and all.welshowl said:Not worn a watch in two weeks. It’s great.
(Do miss the sport though).
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No, do tell.ydoethur said:
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.BluestBlue said:
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.stodge said:
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.Barnesian said:
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".kle4 said:
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....0 -
On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...2 -
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
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The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.eadric said:Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?
They lied
https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841?s=21
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.0 -
That brought a huge smile to my face @tyson. That's wonderful to hear. I know from colleagues in the large hospital that serves where i live that they have also managed to send some people home already and are equally delighted about that.tyson said:On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...1 -
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
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Good news story and the whole nation is at one in thanking everyone in the NHStyson said:On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...3 -
Hard [ or maybe soft] going for the blow job merchants at 2 meters as well!Black_Rook said:
I am surprised that the Graun hasn't written a sob story yet on the financial hardship facing criminals. And it's not just the drug dealers - imagine trying to make a living as a burglar at the moment.OldKingCole said:
Apologies if that has been posted before, but from the GuardianTheuniondivvie said:
Tbf having a big wet doob passed to you would be a maximum risk activity at the moment.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
'I sell cannabis and cocaine to suppliers in the north of England. I have around 20 guys on the street, with approximately 200 regular customers. We have two main concerns now: sourcing drugs and getting enough money. We expect no more cocaine shipments from abroad for the next six weeks, so prices have shot up. '0 -
101 year old made it through in italy, apparently.tyson said:On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...0 -
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If they’re there at this moment, that’s a good enough reason to cancel all flights, surely?algarkirk said:
Members of Momentum have to holiday somewhere and it would be awful to inconvenience them.ydoethur said:
Both flights? Must be a busy day...algarkirk said:It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
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That is a very good point you have made....SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
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Mail on Sunday bringing up the iffy Imperial death report.0
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It's like springing the trap on a tiger... wait for it.... wait for it... WAIT! FOR! IT!...ydoethur said:
If they’re there at this moment, that’s a good enough reason to cancel all flights, surely?algarkirk said:
Members of Momentum have to holiday somewhere and it would be awful to inconvenience them.ydoethur said:
Both flights? Must be a busy day...algarkirk said:It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
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Wikipedia, unhelpfully, doesn’t put this particular pandemic in 1919, even though it was at its height in 1918-1919 with a heavy overhang in 1920 (which the article doesn’t mention).Nigelb said:
No, do tell.ydoethur said:
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.BluestBlue said:
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.stodge said:
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.Barnesian said:
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".kle4 said:
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.0 -
https://twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/1243402906469949440Black_Rook said:I was struck by coverage on the BBC News website yesterday that included the latest updates from France. The Plague there, having initially been worst in the East of the country, is now really beginning to ramp up in Paris. Data from the mobile phone networks also indicated that, apparently, an estimated 1.3 million Parisians have left either the city itself or the Ile de France (I can't remember which was specified) in the past week.
I can see there being a similar problem in London, and a typically behind-the-curve response from Government. Train services will stop and roadblocks will be thrown up on all the outbound routes about five minutes after every disease vector in the capital who has a second home, a friend or relative to go to elsewhere has finished leaving.0 -
This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
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Where are you going to get 50 million masks ?eadric said:
I do. It will still save lives.GideonWise said:
The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.eadric said:Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?
They lied
https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841?s=21
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks0 -
So one of the main effects of globalisation may be that everyone has to walk around wearing face masks when they venture outside. Not quite what was envisaged by the proponents of the "global village".eadric said:
I do. It will still save lives.GideonWise said:
The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.eadric said:Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?
They lied
https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841?s=21
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks0 -
Assuming that you are correct, what kind of masks? Will any old mask do, or does it need to be properly face-fitting? What kind of filtration properties should the mask have? Should it be disposable or reusable, and if the latter then how frequently and thoroughly need it be cleaned? And where is the entire population of the UK going to get an adequate supply of the required masks when we're presently having real trouble getting enough PPE to NHS workers?eadric said:
I do. It will still save lives.GideonWise said:
The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.eadric said:Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?
They lied
https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841?s=21
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks0 -
Just wondering to be a government science advisor do you have to bald?0
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Which was why I said Graham tartan...IshmaelZ said:
Glasgow? Kilts are a highland thing, and no one in the highlands gives a monkeys about what you wear.Charles said:
Sure. And if I put up a flagpole in the front garden no one* would give a sh1t. Technically against the rules.Theuniondivvie said:
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.Charles said:
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.Theuniondivvie said:
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kiltsTheuniondivvie said:
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malcmalcolmg said:
Lovely day here for a changeIanB2 said:Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
However it’s really a matter of courtesy. Technically I’m entitled to wear Graham tartan (as a good Glaswegian boy) but the only thing I wear occasionally is a scarf. It would feel like passing myself off as something I’m not. In the same way, I’d be slightly peeved if someone was to adopt my logo for their own use.
(The Graham seat is Loch Lomond which is on the highland borders)0 -
Don't stand so close to me.kinabalu said:
Ah that's a good idea - corona compatible song titles.AlastairMeeks said:Every Day Is Like Sunday is definitely on the Covid-19 playlist, along with I Can’t Feel My Face, Don’t Stand So Close To Me and Staying Alive.
There's a kind of hush ... all over the world ??1 -
Dealing with politicians presumably is enough to make anyone lose their hair.FrancisUrquhart said:Just wondering to be a government science advisor do you have to bald?
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Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.algarkirk said:
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
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The reduction in air pollution will probably extend a few lives.tyson said:
That is a very good point you have made....SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.0 -
I do too. The best time (sportswise) of the year this would usually be for me. Start of flat racing. Build up to the Masters. Winter in the rear view.welshowl said:To clarify: not wearing a watch is great. Everything else is clearly not to be wished on us all, though so far I and Mrs Owl are bearing up well.
(Do miss the sport though).0 -
"I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!"TGOHF666 said:
Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.algarkirk said:
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
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No but bald men are naturally awesome. We reach for the top all the time, usually ruefully.FrancisUrquhart said:Just wondering to be a government science advisor do you have to bald?
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PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
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It's slightly odd to me that that so many non Scots and/or non residents with some connection to the place are such suckers for a confidence trick whipped up by Sir Walter Scott to ingratiate a whole nation with an overweight Hanoverian. Wattie was obviously a marketing genius.IshmaelZ said:
Not that many generations, it really is a very recent fiction. And he was talking about what they are permitted (as far as anyone in Scotland is concerned) to do, not what they in fact do.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Now you are being ridiculous.Theuniondivvie said:
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.Charles said:
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.Theuniondivvie said:
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kiltsTheuniondivvie said:
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malcmalcolmg said:
Lovely day here for a changeIanB2 said:Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
My wife, our children, and grandchildren do not wear any old tartan, they wear their family tartan going back generations
Seems you have the daft idea you cannot be Scots unless you live in Scotland0 -
What’s the reduction in RTA deaths? Does anyone know yet?another_richard said:
The reduction in air pollution will probably extend a few lives.tyson said:
That is a very good point you have made....SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.0 -
Not a song title , but Paul Simon's Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard contains the line:felix said:
Don't stand so close to me.kinabalu said:
Ah that's a good idea - corona compatible song titles.AlastairMeeks said:Every Day Is Like Sunday is definitely on the Covid-19 playlist, along with I Can’t Feel My Face, Don’t Stand So Close To Me and Staying Alive.
There's a kind of hush ... all over the world ??
Goodbye to Rosie, the queen of Corona2 -
The all had full heads of hair before the thick hacks asked their dumb questions.FrancisUrquhart said:Just wondering to be a government science advisor do you have to bald?
0 -
For Dura Ace: Morrisey - First of the Gang To Diekinabalu said:
Ah that's a good idea - corona compatible song titles.AlastairMeeks said:Every Day Is Like Sunday is definitely on the Covid-19 playlist, along with I Can’t Feel My Face, Don’t Stand So Close To Me and Staying Alive.
There's a kind of hush ... all over the world ??1 -
About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.0 -
Where we will get masks from? Will the public not notice that they have been recommending the opposite for two months? Would that in turn not make them think, wtf do you guys know I'm going to be doing my own shit now?eadric said:
I do. It will still save lives.GideonWise said:
The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.eadric said:Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?
They lied
https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841?s=21
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
I think it might come but only when things seem totally out of control and everyone wants something, anything, doing.0 -
Oh yeah. We are coming to GET you!Black_Rook said:I'm most concerned about what happens if things keep getting worse in London and substantial numbers of people begin throwing armfuls of bags into their cars and fleeing, to stay with any friends or family elsewhere who can be persuaded to take them in.
I was struck by coverage on the BBC News website yesterday that included the latest updates from France. The Plague there, having initially been worst in the East of the country, is now really beginning to ramp up in Paris. Data from the mobile phone networks also indicated that, apparently, an estimated 1.3 million Parisians have left either the city itself or the Ile de France (I can't remember which was specified) in the past week.
I can see there being a similar problem in London, and a typically behind-the-curve response from Government. Train services will stop and roadblocks will be thrown up on all the outbound routes about five minutes after every disease vector in the capital who has a second home, a friend or relative to go to elsewhere has finished leaving.0 -
Livin’ on a Prayerfelix said:
Don't stand so close to me.kinabalu said:
Ah that's a good idea - corona compatible song titles.AlastairMeeks said:Every Day Is Like Sunday is definitely on the Covid-19 playlist, along with I Can’t Feel My Face, Don’t Stand So Close To Me and Staying Alive.
There's a kind of hush ... all over the world ??
And, of course, Fever.1 -
Three years’ worth of annual deaths in a week or so would be - unfortunate.No_Offence_Alan said:
About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.0 -
There must be a risk of the Fix going in with these obscure sports attracting big betting money.algarkirk said:It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
0 -
Typo...? 😂MarqueeMark said:Ooooh - Good Lady now making chocolate mousse!
0 -
Them traps ain't so humane.....Charles said:0 -
UK deaths are getting mixed with England deaths.No_Offence_Alan said:
About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
England deaths about 540,000 pa, or 1480 a day
UK deaths about 610,000 pa, or about 1671 a day.
0 -
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?eadric said:ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
It's really hard to estimate and feels rather morbid. But I think that range is pretty accurate.0 -
Mr. Eadric, hard to assess, though, given the numbers may or may not be fictitious.0
-
You're all a week late. I created a spotify "mix tape" last sunday called self isolation:felix said:
Don't stand so close to me.kinabalu said:
Ah that's a good idea - corona compatible song titles.AlastairMeeks said:Every Day Is Like Sunday is definitely on the Covid-19 playlist, along with I Can’t Feel My Face, Don’t Stand So Close To Me and Staying Alive.
There's a kind of hush ... all over the world ??
You can listen to it here, it's best played without shuffle.
https://open.spotify.com/playlist/16EgGUFlFEJjx7Fp2yasF92 -
By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.eadric said:Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.
https://twitter.com/robertmcutler/status/1243795351976521733?s=21
That’s 0.36% of the population.0 -
China and the WHO. Massive failure from the WHO to vet their claims.another_richard said:
By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.eadric said:Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.
https://twitter.com/robertmcutler/status/1243795351976521733?s=21
That’s 0.36% of the population.1 -
Fascinating on the EU summit fiasco this week. A very hard lesson for Pedro Sanchez in Spain:
https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-03-28/do-we-have-a-deal-pedro-an-inside-look-at-the-clash-between-eu-leaders-at-coronavirus-summit.html?ssm=FB_CM_EN&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR29Bgc3V3v8K3ow9Ret9sAWvJW6mQB7w24GSHF5q77U2rJcSWENFWAelbA#Echobox=15854114910 -
Yes, it seems to be referred to as The Great Encephalitis Pandemic (1915-1926).ydoethur said:
Wikipedia, unhelpfully, doesn’t put this particular pandemic in 1919, even though it was at its height in 1918-1919 with a heavy overhang in 1920 (which the article doesn’t mention).Nigelb said:
No, do tell.ydoethur said:
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.BluestBlue said:
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.stodge said:
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.Barnesian said:
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".kle4 said:
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.
Smallpox, of course, killed around five million a year, every year on average, until eradication efforts started.0 -
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.0 -
another_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
To speculate on that is in really poor tasteanother_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
0 -
Eating babies is a potential vaccine? Now you've got my attention.rottenborough said:0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0AXgaFqEasMalmesbury said:
"I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!"TGOHF666 said:
Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.algarkirk said:
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
0 -
Love it - Fever really is one of my all time favourites.eristdoof said:
You're all a week late. I created a spotify "mix tape" last sunday called self isolation:felix said:
Don't stand so close to me.kinabalu said:
Ah that's a good idea - corona compatible song titles.AlastairMeeks said:Every Day Is Like Sunday is definitely on the Covid-19 playlist, along with I Can’t Feel My Face, Don’t Stand So Close To Me and Staying Alive.
There's a kind of hush ... all over the world ??
You can listen to it here, it's best played without shuffle.
https://open.spotify.com/playlist/16EgGUFlFEJjx7Fp2yasF90 -
The zinger is the final eight words; the rest just tees it up, rather like "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy". There was actually quite a long intro to that put-down, which was necessary to provide context and to make it a justified response rather than a plain insult but ultimately it was only the sign-off that mattered.eristdoof said:
That's not a zinger. It is a clever reply, but to long to be a zinger. It is about 59 seconds longer than Reagan's "There he goes again"david_herdson said:
He won't. But it's also such a predictable line of attack that Biden and his campaign should be able to prepare a zinger response. "You talk about a diseased mind, Mr Trump? Let me tell you what a diseased mind looks like ... [give several examples of Trump's utter lack of empathy]; it's not my mind that's diseased: it's yours".Sandpit said:It all depends on what happens with the coronavirus.
Running an election campaign from opposition in the middle of a crisis is really difficult, there's a fine line between presenting an alternative vision and mindless government-bashing when they're up to their necks in something not entirely of their own making.
Head-to-head debates between Trump and Biden could get very ugly though, Trump won't be afraid to call his opponent out as being mentally sick.0 -
Eadric's attic.another_richard said:
Where are you going to get 50 million masks ?eadric said:
I do. It will still save lives.GideonWise said:
The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.eadric said:Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?
They lied
https://twitter.com/drmattmccarthy/status/1243891663162019841?s=21
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks0 -
That was the NHS England medical director.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.1 -
260 deaths in a day?
That's grim. Very grim.1 -
Its been happening for weeks here and elsewhere.squareroot2 said:another_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
To speculate on that is in really poor tasteanother_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
0 -
You're quoting those pesky fact things again...Nigelb said:
That was the NHS England medical director.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.0 -
Germany will see way less than 20,000 imo we should be aiming for far less than 20,000 too. We should not accept this guff.eadric said:
But it is true. 20,000 is a very good result. Germany will be feeling the same.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
A bad result would be Wuhan. 0.3% of the population in a crashing health system, which would mean around 200,000 dead.0 -
Excellent, thanks for that.rottenborough said:0 -
Speculate, yes, have s competition not so much...another_richard said:
Its been happening for weeks here and elsewhere.squareroot2 said:another_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
To speculate on that is in really poor tasteanother_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
0 -
That’s the one. Can’t have been many plagues in history with that high a mortality rate - it is comparable to the Black Death - but fortunately it was not nearly so virulent.Nigelb said:
Yes, it seems to be referred to as The Great Encephalitis Pandemic (1915-1926).ydoethur said:
Wikipedia, unhelpfully, doesn’t put this particular pandemic in 1919, even though it was at its height in 1918-1919 with a heavy overhang in 1920 (which the article doesn’t mention).Nigelb said:
No, do tell.ydoethur said:
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.BluestBlue said:
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.stodge said:
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.Barnesian said:
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".kle4 said:
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.
Smallpox, of course, killed around five million a year, every year on average, until eradication efforts started.
Edit - smallpox of course for all it was so infectious didn’t have that high a mortality rate, although it was higher than this current one.0 -
I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?BluestBlue said:
You're quoting those pesky fact things again...Nigelb said:
That was the NHS England medical director.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.0 -
In some sense, seeing what is happening in Italy and Spain helps as it's more expected. If we can control it a little better than in either of those countries that would be a relatively good outcome. We might be helped by not having quite as bad a hotspot as Lombardy or Madrid (London is not nearly as much of an outlier as Lombardy) so can spread the care a little better (although Hampshire and Birmingham may also be difficult).eadric said:
We all have to brace ourselvesCasino_Royale said:260 deaths in a day?
That's grim. Very grim.1 -
EU fires warning shot at China in coronavirus battle of the narratives
http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=2869560 -
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.0 -
You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.0 -
And I'm not organising one but many of us have morbid humour at times.MaxPB said:
Speculate, yes, have s competition not so much...another_richard said:
Its been happening for weeks here and elsewhere.squareroot2 said:another_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
To speculate on that is in really poor tasteanother_richard said:
PB competition ?eadric said:
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?ABZ said:
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...matthiasfromhamburg said:
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
Besides there already is a PB competition on first famous death.0 -
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Your ability to ignore facts for the sake of political point scoring is truly shameful. I suggest you go and look at the minutes of the NERVTAG committee before coming on here spouting your bullshit.rural_voter said:
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.2 -
According to the ICO they wouldn’t even have needed an emergency bill to track mobile phones. Public health is a legitimate purpose under GDPR/DPA 18.rural_voter said:
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.0 -
SK and US at opposite ends of the doing stuff right graph.
We are in the middle I think. Quite good on Social Distancing pretty poor on testing0 -
The UK isn't doing too badly thenHYUFD said:1 -
There will be time enough for such comparisons, credit, and blame, when this is done.bigjohnowls said:
I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?BluestBlue said:
You're quoting those pesky fact things again...Nigelb said:
That was the NHS England medical director.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
For now, while we can contemplate the possibility of copying Korea’s approach, if the lockdown is sufficiently successful, emulating (for example) Germany’s provision of 13 nurses per 1000 population simply isn’t possible from where we started.
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Stupid. Your last point was that suicide at 17 a day kills more than CV. Now we are 10x that and you still haven't drawn the conclusion that increases in CV deaths are to some extent predictable. We are heading for 2x normal mortality in a system geared to cope with say normal mortality plus 10% peaks. Are you saying we should be ok with that, it's "only" double?TGOHF666 said:
Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.algarkirk said:
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.tyson said:It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
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For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?felix said:
You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
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The USA has 5 deaths per million people, the same as Germany. Of course we have good reason to believe the US deaths are about to increase rapidly.rural_voter said:
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.0 -
It's already apparent that the authorities love (and overstep) every extra "temporary" power they get.rural_voter said:
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
So, no thanks. It'll be hard enough to roll back as it is.0 -
No I dont.felix said:
You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.0 -
Though the comparison is seriously flawed because of the variance in testing.Casino_Royale said:
The UK isn't doing too badly thenHYUFD said:1 -
Not everything. We are all responsible for our own actions - but only within the parameters of the information we have on which to make those decisions. China could - and should - have done a lot more.another_richard said:
By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.eadric said:Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.
https://twitter.com/robertmcutler/status/1243795351976521733?s=21
That’s 0.36% of the population.0 -
Yes. The fraction of positive tests per million would be much more meaningful as a statistic, but even that is biased depending upon when the tests were performed (e.g., lots of tests 3 weeks ago would give a negative result and bias the outcome).Nigelb said:
Though the comparison is seriously flawed because of the variance in testing.Casino_Royale said:
The UK isn't doing too badly thenHYUFD said:0 -
Who would hang a dog on the evidence for any country there?HYUFD said:1 -
Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.felix said:
This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.ABZ said:Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
Think of it like this:
No restrictions - R0=3
Complete lockdown - R0=0.2
The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)
What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?
Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.
If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
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I think it's unlikely that there's a very different death rate in the UK to Germany - it only looks that way because the UK is so far behind on testing.bigjohnowls said:
I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?BluestBlue said:
You're quoting those pesky fact things again...Nigelb said:
That was the NHS England medical director.bigjohnowls said:Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
The implication is that, if we'd been testing as much as Germany has, or more, then we'd probably have 100,000 cases now.0
