politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden: tough seasoned candidate or bumbling geriatric?

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden: tough seasoned candidate or bumbling geriatric?

I have not covered myself with glory during the 2020 US presidential election so far. To date, I have tipped, successively, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden for victory – and I’m not exactly convinced at the moment that it’ll be any of them.

Read the full story here

squareroot2

First

Foxy

First, like Biden

edmundintokyo

Both!

Nigelb

Tough seasoned bumbling geriatric candidate.


Or just an elderly stutterer.

squareroot2

Foxy said:

First, like Biden

Possibly the shape of things to come. Thinks first comes second.. 4 more years of Trump quite possible.

MarqueeMark

The best that can be said for Biden is that he doesn't appear to be especially malign.

Nigelb

MarqueeMark said:

The best that can be said for Biden is that he doesn't appear to be especially malign.

That puts him head and shoulders above the alternative.

DAlexander

Biden is completely unviable, he'd be 78 before he even starts his first term and he's not a young 78 either. There's almost no chance of him completing two terms and not a great one of completing his first either.

How the Democrats went through all the rigmarole of the primaries just to choose him is beyond me.

Foxy

Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...

https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19

Cyclefree

FPT re the need for precision in drafting rules, this ditty came in handy when I studied law.

“There was a young man from Darjeeling
Who got on a bus bound for Ealing,
The sign on the door
Said “Don’t spit on the floor”,
So he leaned back and spat on the ceiling.”

MaxPB

I have to say it bothers me that the chancellor has done such a great job with protecting the general public from joblessness at a very high cost, but given that the the blank cheques are being written we should be spending whatever it takes to keep the frontline safe.

I've been handed some very disturbing news this morning on low quality and home made PPE being distributed to London hospitals. Three verified senior people have corroborated the story and put it down to cost. If we're spending £50-70bn on keeping the nation in work, I think £200-300m on keeping our doctors and nurses alive and healthy isn't too much to ask

Sandpit

It all depends on what happens with the coronavirus.

Running an election campaign from opposition in the middle of a crisis is really difficult, there's a fine line between presenting an alternative vision and mindless government-bashing when they're up to their necks in something not entirely of their own making.

Head-to-head debates between Trump and Biden could get very ugly though, Trump won't be afraid to call his opponent out as being mentally sick.

IanB2

FPT:

Cyclefree said:

IanB2 said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

The pertinent question is why the government hasn't put the "once only per day" bit into the regulations. Perhaps it was considered too difficult to define, or would be rendered pointless if, for example, I took the dog out three times, once "for exercise", once "for shopping" and once "to get money".

They did so in Wales. Don’t ask me why.

In Wales, the wording is inserted only in relation to going out for exercise:

"to take exercise, no more than once a day, either alone or with other members of the household"

Which would seem pointless, since you can go out as many times as you like for shopping, to get money, to get medicines, etc.

Nevertheless the difference in wording between the Welsh and English Regulations is peculiar.

edmundintokyo

But there are two known-unknowns we have to recognise. Firstly, he’s an elderly man engaged in a demanding campaign, meeting many people in the middle of a pandemic. There are clearly risks there given the fatality rate of Covid-19 sufferers among male 70-somethings. (This of course also applies to Sanders and Trump). And while I think Biden’s reputation as ‘gaffe-prone’ is exaggerated – there was nothing during his eight years as Vice President that caused serious embarrassment – there’s always the potential for a campaign-ending howler.

If he can avoid dying I think the dynamics of the pandemic will help him avoid the gaffes and the exhaustion, because his wranglers can keep him away from spontaneous situations where he might gaffe and restrict his schedule to avoid burning him out.

Jonathan

Biden has had an impressive campaign so far. Ruthlessly effective in the primaries. He waited and then crushed them overnight. His recent attacks on Trump no not pull their punches. It’s the team, not just the man that determines success. To that end, he doing rather well.

Big_G_NorthWales

FPT

Cyclefree said:

IanB2 said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

The police do seem to be exercising powers the new legislation does not give them. In England you are entitled to be out of the house if you have a reasonable excuse. That includes taking “exercise alone or with another member of their household”. There is no limit to the number of times you can do this in a day. Nor does it say that the exercise can only be taken outside your home.

So a bit of common-sense is needed. If you have a park or field at the end of your street you can go there to have a walk. If you are in an urban area you can of course simply walk the streets but this may well be risky if you cannot stay 2 metres apart from other people walking the pavements.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

The pertinent question is why the government hasn't put the "once only per day" bit into the regulations. Perhaps it was considered too difficult to define, or would be rendered pointless if, for example, I took the dog out three times, once "for exercise", once "for shopping" and once "to get money".

They did so in Wales. Don’t ask me why.

North Wales police were stopping cars at the English border last night and they are enforcing the closure of our National Parks with the full support of us North Walians

Cyclefree

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Cyclefree said:

IanB2 said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

The pertinent question is why the government hasn't put the "once only per day" bit into the regulations. Perhaps it was considered too difficult to define, or would be rendered pointless if, for example, I took the dog out three times, once "for exercise", once "for shopping" and once "to get money".

They did so in Wales. Don’t ask me why.

In Wales, the wording is inserted only in relation to going out for exercise:

"to take exercise, no more than once a day, either alone or with other members of the household"

Which would seem pointless, since you can go out as many times as you like for shopping, to get money, to get medicines, etc.

Nevertheless the difference in wording between the Welsh and English Regulations is peculiar.

It’s what happens when legislation is drafted and passed in a hurry.

felix

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Cyclefree said:

IanB2 said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

The pertinent question is why the government hasn't put the "once only per day" bit into the regulations. Perhaps it was considered too difficult to define, or would be rendered pointless if, for example, I took the dog out three times, once "for exercise", once "for shopping" and once "to get money".

They did so in Wales. Don’t ask me why.

In Wales, the wording is inserted only in relation to going out for exercise:

"to take exercise, no more than once a day, either alone or with other members of the household"

Which would seem pointless, since you can go out as many times as you like for shopping, to get money, to get medicines, etc.

Nevertheless the difference in wording between the Welsh and English Regulations is peculiar.

Maybe connected with the need to act at speed because we're in the middle of a huge crisis and the government and civil servants are under huge pressure. The basic purpose is very easy and simple to understand - stay at home as much as possible and go out as little as possible. That is the way to protect others and yourself. Armchair lawyers and busybodies trying to pick holes, however well intentioned, act to encourage people to be reckless.

edmundintokyo

Sandpit said:

Running an election campaign from opposition in the middle of a crisis is really difficult, there's a fine line between presenting an alternative vision and mindless government-bashing when they're up to their necks in something not entirely of their own making.

This is normally true and it'll be a tough situation for Starmer but Trump comes up with something outrageous, corrupt or repugnant pretty much daily. It'll be very easy to draw a contrast with what a normal competent leader would be doing.

ABZ

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

felix

On topic: The sole redeeming features for Biden Presidency are:

1 He is not Bernie Sanders
2 He is not Donald Trump

Other than that the USA is truly in a very bad place.

isam

https://twitter.com/nickw84/status/1243635545303105537?s=21
https://twitter.com/nickw84/status/1243635896131469317?s=21

rkrkrk

Great header as usual. Very hard to assess the risk of Biden being replaced/standing down due to ill health. If it's small, then he's a great bet.

I definitely think he's favourite to beat Trump now.

The Cuomo bet doesn't appeal. He won't have time at the minute to be doing anything but crisis management. And New York is going to be really badly hit - his record may not look all that good come November through no fault of his own.

Finally - what kind of sway does Biden have in choosing the nominee if he steps aside? Quite a bit I'd imagine. That makes me think Bernie is very, very unlikely.

kle4

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

The police do seem to be exercising powers the new legislation does not give them. In England you are entitled to be out of the house if you have a reasonable excuse. That includes taking “exercise alone or with another member of their household”. There is no limit to the number of times you can do this in a day. Nor does it say that the exercise can only be taken outside your home.

So a bit of common-sense is needed. If you have a park or field at the end of your street you can go there to have a walk. If you are in an urban area you can of course simply walk the streets but this may well be risky if you cannot stay 2 metres apart from other people walking the pavements.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

No I don’t. I have not been out of the house for over a week now.

There is no rule about exercise once a day.

Try reading the rules and the guidance.

The important thing is to avoid contact with other people because that is what spreads the virus and to go out for reasonable needs only, which are clearly set out in the legislation.

It is the police who risk undermining that message - and may well put people at risk - if they behave officiously and unlawfully.

The guidance very clearly states that you should only leave your house for exercise once a day. It’s not easily enforceable but it’s clear. One of the biggest challenges this country has is the number of people who know better, who can best judge the risks and think this is a matter for their own judgment. Most of the time this is a strength in this country, it makes us less prone to dictators for example, but right now it’s a problem.

What does the law say vs the guidance? I'm following the guidance and intend to keep doing so but its certainly not unherd of that government guidance on what the law is can be wrong (even where what they think it is is sensible).

Socky

Report from Central London (Lambeth)

Just been out for my weekly shop.

Streets very quite. Even so with narrow pavements it is hard to keep to the 2M rule. Lots of joggers out making things more difficult. Frankly this seems self indulgent in this area.

Tried to shop at local Iceland. Checked their website last night to confirm 09:00 opening. Actual opening time is 10:00 (opening times sign over-written) but shop is full of people. Random undisciplined queue outside, overheard mumbles that 09:00 to 10:00 is reserved for NHS staff, but no signs or staff to confirm this, so gave up. (poor effort Iceland)

Sainsburys on way home; barriers and signage outside, but no queue and shop quiet. Inside staff all had PPE, plenty of stuff on shelves, with signs restricting purchase numbers for certain items. Got all I went for. (good effort Sainsbuys)

kle4

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

kamski said:

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

edb said:

This stuff about Branson is way way too personal. Why should every other airline business in the uk be bailed out but not him? And they will be.

Oh unsubstantiated and irrelevant rumours about his private life, ok fair enough.

Bogoff Richard

Buy BA and get Virgin free ?

Airlines haven't been paying for the global overheating they contribute to, nor for the rapid spread of global pandemics.
Bail them out? A disgusting idea. The nonflying majority have already been paying a massive subsidy to frequent flyers for years.

I was making a joke, not a policy suggestion.

Johnson won’t bail out Branson.

He never misses an opportunity to screw virgins.

He's moved on from emulating Churchill to Augustus?

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

Theuniondivvie said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1243320489692606465

Future MP?

Can we have a sweepstake on which month PBers will once more start whining about the NHS being treated as a religion?

OK, since you ask, and your post is aimed at denouncing the heresy.

The British doctors and nurses are equally heroic to the French or German doctors and nurses, but they're going to have to deal with this crisis in a system barely has the capacity to handle a regular seasonal flu.

British people treat the NHS like a religion, and fewer people would die if they treated it like most other developed countries treat their healthcare systems, instead of a religion.

The religious bit - for me - should be that it’s universal, the best and free at the point if use. Everything else is just detail. The problem is we can’t talk about the detail without it becoming politicised. This applies to the left and right.

This. So much. It's not the only area where problems become hard to solve due to politics that is supposed to help, but it's a big one. Maybe one day.

edmundintokyo

felix said:

On topic: The sole redeeming features for Biden Presidency are:

1 He is not Bernie Sanders
2 He is not Donald Trump

Other than that the USA is truly in a very bad place.

A US president's job consists of two things:
1) Make appointments
2) Decide which brown people to bomb

(2) mostly depends on (1).

President Biden would appoint a bunch of people who showed they were competent and effective during the Obama administration and not go out on any particular limb over (2). That's all it takes to be the best president they've had in decades.

kle4

Everyone knows Bidens flaws but he still easily won out. Yes a sign of weakness from the others but not all of them seemed like pushovers. He still seems an issue though.

But then I find the choices Americans make hard to understand a lot of the time.

Foxy

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

DavidL

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

Foxy

MaxPB said:

I have to say it bothers me that the chancellor has done such a great job with protecting the general public from joblessness at a very high cost, but given that the the blank cheques are being written we should be spending whatever it takes to keep the frontline safe.

I've been handed some very disturbing news this morning on low quality and home made PPE being distributed to London hospitals. Three verified senior people have corroborated the story and put it down to cost. If we're spending £50-70bn on keeping the nation in work, I think £200-300m on keeping our doctors and nurses alive and healthy isn't too much to ask

There are still concerns re PPE, but these are not cost related. My Trust is seriously skint, and tight as a gnats arse for expenditure, but all pandemic related orders are coded as COVID19 supplies, and have a blank check written. This was from one of our management meetings at the beginning of the week.

edmundintokyo

rkrkrk said:

Finally - what kind of sway does Biden have in choosing the nominee if he steps aside? Quite a bit I'd imagine. That makes me think Bernie is very, very unlikely.

Yes, lots. They're his delegates, if he made a clear recommendation and it wasn't insane they'd be highly likely to follow it.

DavidL

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

The police do seem to be exercising powers the new legislation does not give them. In England you are entitled to be out of the house if you have a reasonable excuse. That includes taking “exercise alone or with another member of their household”. There is no limit to the number of times you can do this in a day. Nor does it say that the exercise can only be taken outside your home.

So a bit of common-sense is needed. If you have a park or field at the end of your street you can go there to have a walk. If you are in an urban area you can of course simply walk the streets but this may well be risky if you cannot stay 2 metres apart from other people walking the pavements.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

No I don’t. I have not been out of the house for over a week now.

There is no rule about exercise once a day.

Try reading the rules and the guidance.

The important thing is to avoid contact with other people because that is what spreads the virus and to go out for reasonable needs only, which are clearly set out in the legislation.

It is the police who risk undermining that message - and may well put people at risk - if they behave officiously and unlawfully.

The guidance very clearly states that you should only leave your house for exercise once a day. It’s not easily enforceable but it’s clear. One of the biggest challenges this country has is the number of people who know better, who can best judge the risks and think this is a matter for their own judgment. Most of the time this is a strength in this country, it makes us less prone to dictators for example, but right now it’s a problem.

What does the law say vs the guidance? I'm following the guidance and intend to keep doing so but its certainly not unherd of that government guidance on what the law is can be wrong (even where what they think it is is sensible).

I think that the guidance goes further than the law. And it is of course more flexible. And it’s what we should all follow whether it is legally enforceable or not.

ABZ

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

HYUFD

I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.

Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck

HYUFD

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

IanB2

Gretchen for VP? She seems to be having a good war, so far

felix

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

Yes - I simply do not comprehend either their approach to healthcare. The NHS is far from perfect but for all individuals not to feel their wealth is a barrier to essential medical care when needed is such a comfort even in normal times. Yet they show no sign as a nation of really wanting to change that very much. I had to have private medical cover in Spain until I reached pension age - it's very good and not expensive but for many the failiure to cover pre-conditions make it a non-starter. I was lucky in that respect but many are not and the result is years of stress and worry - something that I believe is a big problem in the US where costs of cover and other exclusions can cripple families even with high incomes. It is no way to run a society.

squareroot2

Cyclefree said:

FPT re the need for precision in drafting rules, this ditty came in handy when I studied law.

“There was a young man from Darjeeling
Who got on a bus bound for Ealing,
The sign on the door
Said “Don’t spit on the floor”,
So he leaned back and spat on the ceiling.”

There is a more rustic version of that...

Scott_xP

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1243655280556195840

nichomar

Is James Martin Saturday kitchen live? ITV

DavidL

ABZ said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

I had a persistent cough and cold through most of January and February. It left me feeling generally crap and I didn’t go near the gym. As a result I gained a stone which I am now anxiously trying to lose. It seems obvious to me that being generally healthy is the best protection we can hope for. We don’t know enough to be sure, there is much about this virus we don’t know, but it’s a sensible precaution that has the psychological benefit of making me feel a little less helpless. So lose weight, don’t drink, improve lung capacity and hope.

geoffw

IanB2 said:

Gretchen for VP? She seems to be having a good war, so far

Gretchen? I think you're spinning.

rottenborough

rkrkrk said:

Great header as usual. Very hard to assess the risk of Biden being replaced/standing down due to ill health. If it's small, then he's a great bet.

I definitely think he's favourite to beat Trump now.

The Cuomo bet doesn't appeal. He won't have time at the minute to be doing anything but crisis management. And New York is going to be really badly hit - his record may not look all that good come November through no fault of his own.

Finally - what kind of sway does Biden have in choosing the nominee if he steps aside? Quite a bit I'd imagine. That makes me think Bernie is very, very unlikely.

Yet Trump's approval ratings are rising.

Pulpstar

The way the USA is going I'm not even sure he might make it to the start line. Same goes for Trump too.

paulyork64

felix said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

Yes - I simply do not comprehend either their approach to healthcare. The NHS is far from perfect but for all individuals not to feel their wealth is a barrier to essential medical care when needed is such a comfort even in normal times. Yet they show no sign as a nation of really wanting to change that very much. I had to have private medical cover in Spain until I reached pension age - it's very good and not expensive but for many the failiure to cover pre-conditions make it a non-starter. I was lucky in that respect but many are not and the result is years of stress and worry - something that I believe is a big problem in the US where costs of cover and other exclusions can cripple families even with high incomes. It is no way to run a society.

If a poor person in NYC with no medical insurance gets Covid badly what are their options?

Nigelb

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

I have to say it bothers me that the chancellor has done such a great job with protecting the general public from joblessness at a very high cost, but given that the the blank cheques are being written we should be spending whatever it takes to keep the frontline safe.

I've been handed some very disturbing news this morning on low quality and home made PPE being distributed to London hospitals. Three verified senior people have corroborated the story and put it down to cost. If we're spending £50-70bn on keeping the nation in work, I think £200-300m on keeping our doctors and nurses alive and healthy isn't too much to ask

There are still concerns re PPE, but these are not cost related. My Trust is seriously skint, and tight as a gnats arse for expenditure, but all pandemic related orders are coded as COVID19 supplies, and have a blank check written. This was from one of our management meetings at the beginning of the week.

Yes, I think any problems are more likely related to difficulties in ramping up the supply chain at a time when the whole world is demanding more deliveries.

kinabalu

Good news! I am over my little "covid wobble" on Donald Trump and back to thinking straight. He is (once again) toast in November. It matters not who the Dems choose. It's an open goal. Just slot it home. You don't need to be Maradona. Tony Cottee will do. And I am OK with Joe Biden. Either he has dementia or he hasn't. If he hasn't, great, he will be the nominee and the next president. If he has, even better, because he will then be swapped out for a more animated alternative and whoever that is will convert. Either way, Trump is losing WH2020 and it will not be particularly close. What a relief (!) to rediscover my strong and uncluttered view on this, the single most important issue in the world today other than finding a cure for the Sickness.

Charles

IanB2 said:

Gretchen for VP? She seems to be having a good war, so far

I can see why Trump might like her
https://www.bravotv.com/sites/bravo/files/2019-10/gretchen-rossi-family-baby-daughter.jpg

Theuniondivvie

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

It takes some level of dystopian perversity to titillate oneself with the idea of the SNP standing against Trump, but whatever floats your boat.

Foxy

ABZ said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

We know that hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnoea all seem to worsen outcomes. Perhaps through obesity, maybe the common factor is insulin resistance?

kle4

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

The police do seem to be exercising powers the new legislation does not give them. In England you are entitled to be out of the house if you have a reasonable excuse. That includes taking “exercise alone or with another member of their household”. There is no limit to the number of times you can do this in a day. Nor does it say that the exercise can only be taken outside your home.

So a bit of common-sense is needed. If you have a park or field at the end of your street you can go there to have a walk. If you are in an urban area you can of course simply walk the streets but this may well be risky if you cannot stay 2 metres apart from other people walking the pavements.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

No I don’t. I have not been out of the house for over a week now.

There is no rule about exercise once a day.

Try reading the rules and the guidance.

The important thing is to avoid contact with other people because that is what spreads the virus and to go out for reasonable needs only, which are clearly set out in the legislation.

It is the police who risk undermining that message - and may well put people at risk - if they behave officiously and unlawfully.

The guidance very clearly states that you should only leave your house for exercise once a day. It’s not easily enforceable but it’s clear. One of the biggest challenges this country has is the number of people who know better, who can best judge the risks and think this is a matter for their own judgment. Most of the time this is a strength in this country, it makes us less prone to dictators for example, but right now it’s a problem.

What does the law say vs the guidance? I'm following the guidance and intend to keep doing so but its certainly not unherd of that government guidance on what the law is can be wrong (even where what they think it is is sensible).

I think that the guidance goes further than the law. And it is of course more flexible. And it’s what we should all follow whether it is legally enforceable or not.

I didn't say we shouldn't, but it is useful to know where there is a difference, particularly when it comes to how much opprobrium or actual punishment people should receive.

IanB2

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

Gretchen for VP? She seems to be having a good war, so far

I can see why Trump might like her
https://www.bravotv.com/sites/bravo/files/2019-10/gretchen-rossi-family-baby-daughter.jpg

Lol

I was thinking of Whitmer for Biden

williamglenn

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1243655280556195840

I hope he’s right but I have my doubts.

DougSeal

Don’t shoot the messenger- I’m just throwing this out there. Has anyone considered actually sitting down and talking with Covid-19? We may be able to reach a negotiated solution.

DavidL

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

Nope. The man is a dangerous degenerate.

TOPPING

I know this has been put here before but in case anyone missed it. I will be watching the first one even though I have seen the production twice!
https://www.nationaltheatre.org.uk/nt-at-home

david_herdson

Sandpit said:

It all depends on what happens with the coronavirus.

Running an election campaign from opposition in the middle of a crisis is really difficult, there's a fine line between presenting an alternative vision and mindless government-bashing when they're up to their necks in something not entirely of their own making.

Head-to-head debates between Trump and Biden could get very ugly though, Trump won't be afraid to call his opponent out as being mentally sick.

He won't. But it's also such a predictable line of attack that Biden and his campaign should be able to prepare a zinger response. "You talk about a diseased mind, Mr Trump? Let me tell you what a diseased mind looks like ... [give several examples of Trump's utter lack of empathy]; it's not my mind that's diseased: it's yours".

SirNorfolkPassmore

Have to say, I don't agree at all with David's "degenerative mental condition" argument.

The problem with it is that Biden has ALWAYS been prone to stumbles and brain freezes. It was a feature of his Senate career, of his 1988 Presidential run, his 2008 run, and a concern in his VP debates in 2008 and 2012.

There's nothing degenerative about it - it's just the way he is.

And this "mental condition" thing is unfair. Being a less than perfect media performer isn't a mental condition - you try performing consistently at a high level under the glare of media attention. He wasn't the best performer on the debate stage, but wasn't the worst either. And, aside from a highly effective Harris attack in an earlier debate, a lot of very capable debaters (the forensic Warren, combative Klobuchar, populist Sanders, and slick Buttigieg) pushed at but never really breached Biden's defences.

Scott_xP

DavidL said:

I hope he’s right but I have my doubts.

I think the fact that the Trump campaign issued cease and desist orders against the ad showing all his quotes matched with the rise in cases demonstrates that they are at least worried this will not work out to his advantage...

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1243804425577209856?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1243813959444000768?s=20

DavidL

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

We know that hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnoea all seem to worsen outcomes. Perhaps through obesity, maybe the common factor is insulin resistance?




Are quite a lot of people who are obese not pre-diabetic? Maybe that is enough to increase the risk.

Richard_Tyndall

williamglenn said:

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

It is kind of meaningless though. There are a whole series of mini black swans related to the main crisis which have to play out over the next year or so and any one of them could either boost or utterly destroy a Conservative Government.

What really needs to happen at the moment is for the Labour party to pick an electable leader so that as events do unfold we have a realistic choice at the end of it all.

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

DavidL said:

I hope he’s right but I have my doubts.

I think the fact that the Trump campaign issued cease and desist orders against the ad showing all his quotes matched with the rise in cases demonstrates that they are at least worried this will not work out to his advantage...

They should be worried that he is going to be indicted.

SirNorfolkPassmore

rottenborough said:

rkrkrk said:

Great header as usual. Very hard to assess the risk of Biden being replaced/standing down due to ill health. If it's small, then he's a great bet.

I definitely think he's favourite to beat Trump now.

The Cuomo bet doesn't appeal. He won't have time at the minute to be doing anything but crisis management. And New York is going to be really badly hit - his record may not look all that good come November through no fault of his own.

Finally - what kind of sway does Biden have in choosing the nominee if he steps aside? Quite a bit I'd imagine. That makes me think Bernie is very, very unlikely.

Yet Trump's approval ratings are rising.

As is the death toll, while the economy is tanking. People rally around in a national crisis, but it is very likely the debate by the Autumn will have moved on to whether lives and jobs could have been saved.

HYUFD

The Chancellor now more popular than the PM
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1243844673380265986?s=20

Toms

Foxy said:

Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...

https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19

Are face masks much cop for the general public?

MightyAlex

IMO Biden was placed on the political ventillator by the democratic party. If there hadn't been an orchestrated attempt to remove all the other viables straight before California he would still be seen as the gaff prone elder.

His core support in the first primaries was beyond a joke and he was only bouyed by the demographics of SC, had california had been primaried first he would have been done.

I think he might actualy loose this election. His story isn't without baggage. You can throw everything at Trump but Hunter Biden will be ressurrected every time you do. Plus if he does loose this will be perceived as the second democratic stich up. What happens to the youth of the party. Those under 45 will become even more disenfranchised and their politics will slide further from the mainstream.

The Sanders camp will be able to say with legitamacy 'you could have voted for the candidate championing health care at the time it is most expedient to do so'. You need to fight a populist with a populist and to me Biden is a suit, the new Hillary and a political insder.

Trump may even fight on a healthcare ticket! Why not do a Boris, steal your opponents policies, legitamise them and let your tame media broadcast how they were your ideas in the first place.

DavidL

DougSeal said:

Don’t shoot the messenger- I’m just throwing this out there. Has anyone considered actually sitting down and talking with Covid-19? We may be able to reach a negotiated solution.

You are Jeremy Corbyn. I claim my £5.

HYUFD

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

Nope. The man is a dangerous degenerate.

In your opinion

squareroot2

williamglenn said:

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

Tories way up and the idiot Corbyn still thinks he won...

Foxy

Toms said:

Foxy said:

Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...

https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19

Are face masks much cop for the general public?

Probably not, but this design has appeal!

HYUFD

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

It takes some level of dystopian perversity to titillate oneself with the idea of the SNP standing against Trump, but whatever floats your boat.

Salmond of course was once great mates with Trump and even played golf with him

kle4

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1243813959444000768?s=20

Will no one think of the industry really hurt by all this, the pickpockets?

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1243804425577209856?s=20

He had Spanish flu as a baby and survived it?

Toms

Foxy said:

Toms said:

Foxy said:

Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...

https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19

Are face masks much cop for the general public?

Probably not, but this design has appeal!

Yes, but I'd prefer it erm, right side up.

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

The Chancellor now more popular than the PM
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1243844673380265986?s=20

The media are more out of touch with the public than Brexit or last year's general election...

ydoethur

Toms said:

Foxy said:

Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...

https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19

Are face masks much cop for the general public?

I was just thinking how much SeanT has changed in Penarth, although I’m sure it’s nothing new for him to put his face in a thong.

geoffw

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

We know that hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnoea all seem to worsen outcomes. Perhaps through obesity, maybe the common factor is insulin resistance?

oh shsugar

FrancisUrquhart

The NHS could have prevented “chaos and panic” had the system not been left “wholly unprepared for this pandemic”, the editor of a British medical journal has said.

Numerous warnings were issued but these were not heeded, Richard Horton wrote in The Lancet. He cited an example from his journal on 20 January, pointing to a global epidemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/chaos-and-panic-lancet-editor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19

Errhhh...now when was that tweet he posted saying nothing to see here....

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow

SirNorfolkPassmore

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

Nope. The man is a dangerous degenerate.

In your opinion

Oh, for goodness sake HYUFD. You can hardly get snippy about others on here presenting opinion as fact. Look in the mirror, mate.

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.

Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.

I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anyday

It takes some level of dystopian perversity to titillate oneself with the idea of the SNP standing against Trump, but whatever floats your boat.

Salmond of course was once great mates with Trump and even played golf with him

*nobly resists puns about both of them looking for holes*

david_herdson

HYUFD said:

I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.

Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck

Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?

DavidL

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

felix said:

Cyclefree said:

IshmaelZ said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another cracking day, reckon I will go up on to Dartmoor looking for...

Ah. Bugger.

*shakes fist at the skies* Damn you, Police Drone of Doom!

Just off out there now to check the welfare of my ponies. I'll let you know if anything interesting happens.

The police do seem to be exercising powers the new legislation does not give them. In England you are entitled to be out of the house if you have a reasonable excuse. That includes taking “exercise alone or with another member of their household”. There is no limit to the number of times you can do this in a day. Nor does it say that the exercise can only be taken outside your home.

So a bit of common-sense is needed. If you have a park or field at the end of your street you can go there to have a walk. If you are in an urban area you can of course simply walk the streets but this may well be risky if you cannot stay 2 metres apart from other people walking the pavements.

So driving a short distance to some outside space to exercise there while keeping a safe distance away from others is both legal and in accordance with health safety guidelines.

Telling people that walking a dog is not essential is nonsense and outside the police’s powers. Walking the dog exercises you and the dog and is both essential and permitted.

People - and this includes the police - need to use a bit of common-sense.

The trouble with that approach is it creates way too many exceptions and loopholes to be policed effectively. It is also basically selfish. In normal times of course your probes and queries would be laudable.

I am not going outside beyond the garden.

It doesn’t make it difficult if the police act reasonably. Even in an emergency the police are obliged to obey the laws specifically put in place for the emergency’s duration.And the emergency laws do permit people to go outside for exercise. That exercise should be taken in accordance with the health guidelines. Jogging close to someone outside your home is stupid. Jogging a mile away in an empty space is not. Walking your dog in a lonely spot miles from other people is both reasonable and lawful and the police have no business shaming you or telling you not to.

Well you already want to ignore the rule about exercise once a day. You also want for some bizarre reason to nit-pick other rules to satisfy your fears of the overbearing state exceeding its powers - completely ignoring the context in which the Police are trying to operate and encouraging others to do the same. How do you expect the Police to manage when thousands try to follow your advice and drive to somewhere quiet! And all because it's lawful!. Sorry - that approach doesn't fly.

No I don’t. I have not been out of the house for over a week now.

There is no rule about exercise once a day.

Try reading the rules and the guidance.

The important thing is to avoid contact with other people because that is what spreads the virus and to go out for reasonable needs only, which are clearly set out in the legislation.

It is the police who risk undermining that message - and may well put people at risk - if they behave officiously and unlawfully.

The guidance very clearly states that you should only leave your house for exercise once a day. It’s not easily enforceable but it’s clear. One of the biggest challenges this country has is the number of people who know better, who can best judge the risks and think this is a matter for their own judgment. Most of the time this is a strength in this country, it makes us less prone to dictators for example, but right now it’s a problem.

What does the law say vs the guidance? I'm following the guidance and intend to keep doing so but its certainly not unherd of that government guidance on what the law is can be wrong (even where what they think it is is sensible).

I think that the guidance goes further than the law. And it is of course more flexible. And it’s what we should all follow whether it is legally enforceable or not.

I didn't say we shouldn't, but it is useful to know where there is a difference, particularly when it comes to how much opprobrium or actual punishment people should receive.

I had a look at the Coronavirus Act and I couldn’t immediately find any reference to guidance. Specific powers are given to control infected persons but if there is a right to fine people for being out of their house without good reason I am not immediately seeing it.

ydoethur

FrancisUrquhart said:

The NHS could have prevented “chaos and panic” had the system not been left “wholly unprepared for this pandemic”, the editor of a British medical journal has said.

Numerous warnings were issued but these were not heeded, Richard Horton wrote in The Lancet. He cited an example from his journal on 20 January, pointing to a global epidemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/chaos-and-panic-lancet-editor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19

Errhhh...now when was that tweet he posted saying nothing to see here....

What’s the difference between Richard Horton and Donald Trump?

One is an incoherent narcissist with no clue what he’s doing who warps facts to suit his reality and is vicious in his attacks on people who criticise him for his behaviour.

The other is of course the President of the United States.

GideonWise

FrancisUrquhart said:

The NHS could have prevented “chaos and panic” had the system not been left “wholly unprepared for this pandemic”, the editor of a British medical journal has said.

Numerous warnings were issued but these were not heeded, Richard Horton wrote in The Lancet. He cited an example from his journal on 20 January, pointing to a global epidemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/chaos-and-panic-lancet-editor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19

Errhhh...now when was that tweet he posted saying nothing to see here....

He would be better placed working constructively to help now.

We've had Dunkirk, now it's the Battle of Britain.

rottenborough

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.

Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck

Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?

Maybe because many americans seem to be idiots?

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.

Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck

Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?

Let’s not write him off yet, he’s somehow sustained the impression he’s sane for four years.

ABZ

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

We know that hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnoea all seem to worsen outcomes. Perhaps through obesity, maybe the common factor is insulin resistance?




Interesting... something that would definitely justify future investigation...

squareroot2

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow

Part of the big lead is Corbyn being an arse in.everything he says... Starmer unlikey to be so giving...

nichomar

Actualizamos los últimos datos de coronavirus en España. En las últimas 24 horas, se han registrado 832 fallecimientos más. El total de fallecidos es ya de 5.690 y el número de contagios asciende a 72.248, después de registrarse otros 8.189 nuevos casos, según ha confirmado el Ministerio de Sanidad.

11.2% increase in cases

FrancisUrquhart

GideonWise said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The NHS could have prevented “chaos and panic” had the system not been left “wholly unprepared for this pandemic”, the editor of a British medical journal has said.

Numerous warnings were issued but these were not heeded, Richard Horton wrote in The Lancet. He cited an example from his journal on 20 January, pointing to a global epidemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/chaos-and-panic-lancet-editor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19

Errhhh...now when was that tweet he posted saying nothing to see here....

He would be better placed working constructively to help now.

We've had Dunkirk, now it's the Battle of Britain.

And the revisionism....those screaming why didn't Britain do anything...well they did, they started planning at the beginning of January, however Imperial egg-head model based on the Chinese data said the risk of a global pandemic was low to none, then it was revised and showed yes its coming but not too bad, and then we got Italy data and it said, oh shit, twice as many people need hospitalization.

I don't blame Neil Ferguson. He only had the very suspicious Chinese data to go on to begin with.

Its all in the minutes that have been released from those meetings. If it hadn't have spread, we would have the same people screaming like they did when the government ordered all that Tamiflu that went to waste. Saying all that money spent could have gone on x instead.

Malmesbury

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

The Chancellor now more popular than the PM
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1243844673380265986?s=20

The media are more out of touch with the public than Brexit or last year's general election...

The public have forfeited the confidence of the chattering classes.....

The Guardian
Had an edition distributed on the website
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the Commentariat
And could only win it back
By increased poll numbers. Would it not in that case be simpler
for the Commentariat
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

Foxy

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

Foxy said:

ABZ said:

That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.

Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19

Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...

We know that hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnoea all seem to worsen outcomes. Perhaps through obesity, maybe the common factor is insulin resistance?

Are quite a lot of people who are obese not pre-diabetic? Maybe that is enough to increase the risk.

Insulin has many functions and actions on top of the obvious one on blood sugar. High blood insulin is a significant association of inflammation, but the biology is quite complex.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ije/2015/508409/

Malmesbury

GideonWise said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The NHS could have prevented “chaos and panic” had the system not been left “wholly unprepared for this pandemic”, the editor of a British medical journal has said.

Numerous warnings were issued but these were not heeded, Richard Horton wrote in The Lancet. He cited an example from his journal on 20 January, pointing to a global epidemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/chaos-and-panic-lancet-editor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19

Errhhh...now when was that tweet he posted saying nothing to see here....

He would be better placed working constructively to help now.

We've had Dunkirk, now it's the Battle of Britain.

He is B. H. Liddell Hart and I claim my 5 tanks.

felix

nichomar said:

Actualizamos los últimos datos de coronavirus en España. En las últimas 24 horas, se han registrado 832 fallecimientos más. El total de fallecidos es ya de 5.690 y el número de contagios asciende a 72.248, después de registrarse otros 8.189 nuevos casos, según ha confirmado el Ministerio de Sanidad.

11.2% increase in cases

Similar for deaths. The rate of growth is less steep - flattening the curve is not going to be quick. I begin to wonder if the government will survive as the state of the health service buckles.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21

Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow

What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time