A focus on getting the 2021 season off the ground would be more appropriate.
Like every other sport, they're flapping about enormous financial losses and engaging in wishful thinking about how quickly things might get back to (something approximating to) normal.
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.
Now you are being ridiculous.
My wife, our children, and grandchildren do not wear any old tartan, they wear their family tartan going back generations
Seems you have the daft idea you cannot be Scots unless you live in Scotland
Not that many generations, it really is a very recent fiction. And he was talking about what they are permitted (as far as anyone in Scotland is concerned) to do, not what they in fact do.
It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
betting wise i have had a go at some Australian dog racing, Swedish horses, Belarussian football and a thing called League of Legends, which I think is real people playing computer games, like space invaders or similar.
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.
Sure. And if I put up a flagpole in the front garden no one* would give a sh1t. Technically against the rules.
However it’s really a matter of courtesy. Technically I’m entitled to wear Graham tartan (as a good Glaswegian boy) but the only thing I wear occasionally is a scarf. It would feel like passing myself off as something I’m not. In the same way, I’d be slightly peeved if someone was to adopt my logo for their own use.
Glasgow? Kilts are a highland thing, and no one in the highlands gives a monkeys about what you wear.
Don't you think that even Highlanders might respond in some fashion to Charles wandering the Highlands wearing nothing but a scarf?
You'd be surprised. They are a tolerant lot.
I wouldn't expect any kind of derision from them, more like a hearty round of applause.
Yes I'm doing OK so far too. Wouldn't say it's great, as such, but things are perfectly tolerable from my point of view. Really hope I don't get the virus though. It's one thing reading about it, running the numbers, debating its impact on the economy and on the world in general, quite another to actually get sick with the dreadful thing. Fingers crossed for me - and for one and all.
To clarify: not wearing a watch is great. Everything else is clearly not to be wished on us all, though so far I and Mrs Owl are bearing up well. (Do miss the sport though).
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
No, do tell. Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...
That brought a huge smile to my face @tyson. That's wonderful to hear. I know from colleagues in the large hospital that serves where i live that they have also managed to send some people home already and are equally delighted about that.
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...
Good news story and the whole nation is at one in thanking everyone in the NHS
I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
Peter Hitchens still thinks that
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.
Tbf having a big wet doob passed to you would be a maximum risk activity at the moment.
Apologies if that has been posted before, but from the Guardian 'I sell cannabis and cocaine to suppliers in the north of England. I have around 20 guys on the street, with approximately 200 regular customers. We have two main concerns now: sourcing drugs and getting enough money. We expect no more cocaine shipments from abroad for the next six weeks, so prices have shot up. '
I am surprised that the Graun hasn't written a sob story yet on the financial hardship facing criminals. And it's not just the drug dealers - imagine trying to make a living as a burglar at the moment.
Hard [ or maybe soft] going for the blow job merchants at 2 meters as well!
On a positive note...my nephew was really (I mean seriously) upbeat today....they are discharging a 92 and 91 year old (he thinks) from his Covid ward tomorrow after they have recovered...
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...
101 year old made it through in italy, apparently.
It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
Both flights? Must be a busy day...
Members of Momentum have to holiday somewhere and it would be awful to inconvenience them.
If they’re there at this moment, that’s a good enough reason to cancel all flights, surely?
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
Both flights? Must be a busy day...
Members of Momentum have to holiday somewhere and it would be awful to inconvenience them.
If they’re there at this moment, that’s a good enough reason to cancel all flights, surely?
It's like springing the trap on a tiger... wait for it.... wait for it... WAIT! FOR! IT!...
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
No, do tell. Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
Wikipedia, unhelpfully, doesn’t put this particular pandemic in 1919, even though it was at its height in 1918-1919 with a heavy overhang in 1920 (which the article doesn’t mention).
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.
I was struck by coverage on the BBC News website yesterday that included the latest updates from France. The Plague there, having initially been worst in the East of the country, is now really beginning to ramp up in Paris. Data from the mobile phone networks also indicated that, apparently, an estimated 1.3 million Parisians have left either the city itself or the Ile de France (I can't remember which was specified) in the past week.
I can see there being a similar problem in London, and a typically behind-the-curve response from Government. Train services will stop and roadblocks will be thrown up on all the outbound routes about five minutes after every disease vector in the capital who has a second home, a friend or relative to go to elsewhere has finished leaving.
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
I do. It will still save lives.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
Assuming that you are correct, what kind of masks? Will any old mask do, or does it need to be properly face-fitting? What kind of filtration properties should the mask have? Should it be disposable or reusable, and if the latter then how frequently and thoroughly need it be cleaned? And where is the entire population of the UK going to get an adequate supply of the required masks when we're presently having real trouble getting enough PPE to NHS workers?
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
I do. It will still save lives.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
So one of the main effects of globalisation may be that everyone has to walk around wearing face masks when they venture outside. Not quite what was envisaged by the proponents of the "global village".
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.
Sure. And if I put up a flagpole in the front garden no one* would give a sh1t. Technically against the rules.
However it’s really a matter of courtesy. Technically I’m entitled to wear Graham tartan (as a good Glaswegian boy) but the only thing I wear occasionally is a scarf. It would feel like passing myself off as something I’m not. In the same way, I’d be slightly peeved if someone was to adopt my logo for their own use.
Glasgow? Kilts are a highland thing, and no one in the highlands gives a monkeys about what you wear.
Which was why I said Graham tartan... (The Graham seat is Loch Lomond which is on the highland borders)
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
That is a very good point you have made....
The reduction in air pollution will probably extend a few lives.
To clarify: not wearing a watch is great. Everything else is clearly not to be wished on us all, though so far I and Mrs Owl are bearing up well. (Do miss the sport though).
I do too. The best time (sportswise) of the year this would usually be for me. Start of flat racing. Build up to the Masters. Winter in the rear view.
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.
Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.
"I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!"
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.
Now you are being ridiculous.
My wife, our children, and grandchildren do not wear any old tartan, they wear their family tartan going back generations
Seems you have the daft idea you cannot be Scots unless you live in Scotland
Not that many generations, it really is a very recent fiction. And he was talking about what they are permitted (as far as anyone in Scotland is concerned) to do, not what they in fact do.
It's slightly odd to me that that so many non Scots and/or non residents with some connection to the place are such suckers for a confidence trick whipped up by Sir Walter Scott to ingratiate a whole nation with an overweight Hanoverian. Wattie was obviously a marketing genius.
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
That is a very good point you have made....
The reduction in air pollution will probably extend a few lives.
What’s the reduction in RTA deaths? Does anyone know yet?
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
I do. It will still save lives.
Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
Where we will get masks from? Will the public not notice that they have been recommending the opposite for two months? Would that in turn not make them think, wtf do you guys know I'm going to be doing my own shit now?
I think it might come but only when things seem totally out of control and everyone wants something, anything, doing.
I'm most concerned about what happens if things keep getting worse in London and substantial numbers of people begin throwing armfuls of bags into their cars and fleeing, to stay with any friends or family elsewhere who can be persuaded to take them in.
I was struck by coverage on the BBC News website yesterday that included the latest updates from France. The Plague there, having initially been worst in the East of the country, is now really beginning to ramp up in Paris. Data from the mobile phone networks also indicated that, apparently, an estimated 1.3 million Parisians have left either the city itself or the Ile de France (I can't remember which was specified) in the past week.
I can see there being a similar problem in London, and a typically behind-the-curve response from Government. Train services will stop and roadblocks will be thrown up on all the outbound routes about five minutes after every disease vector in the capital who has a second home, a friend or relative to go to elsewhere has finished leaving.
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.
Three years’ worth of annual deaths in a week or so would be - unfortunate.
It's a Saturday afternoon in early spring and Belarusian Amateur Mixed Volleyball is having a big moment in the sun, courtesy of in-play betting sites. Meanwhile all flights from and to Pyongyang Airport are running as usual. Anything else going on?
There must be a risk of the Fix going in with these obscure sports attracting big betting money.
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).
This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.
UK deaths are getting mixed with England deaths. England deaths about 540,000 pa, or 1480 a day UK deaths about 610,000 pa, or about 1671 a day.
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
It's really hard to estimate and feels rather morbid. But I think that range is pretty accurate.
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
No, do tell. Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
Wikipedia, unhelpfully, doesn’t put this particular pandemic in 1919, even though it was at its height in 1918-1919 with a heavy overhang in 1920 (which the article doesn’t mention).
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.
Yes, it seems to be referred to as The Great Encephalitis Pandemic (1915-1926). Smallpox, of course, killed around five million a year, every year on average, until eradication efforts started.
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.
Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.
"I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!"
It all depends on what happens with the coronavirus.
Running an election campaign from opposition in the middle of a crisis is really difficult, there's a fine line between presenting an alternative vision and mindless government-bashing when they're up to their necks in something not entirely of their own making.
Head-to-head debates between Trump and Biden could get very ugly though, Trump won't be afraid to call his opponent out as being mentally sick.
He won't. But it's also such a predictable line of attack that Biden and his campaign should be able to prepare a zinger response. "You talk about a diseased mind, Mr Trump? Let me tell you what a diseased mind looks like ... [give several examples of Trump's utter lack of empathy]; it's not my mind that's diseased: it's yours".
That's not a zinger. It is a clever reply, but to long to be a zinger. It is about 59 seconds longer than Reagan's "There he goes again"
The zinger is the final eight words; the rest just tees it up, rather like "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy". There was actually quite a long intro to that put-down, which was necessary to provide context and to make it a justified response rather than a plain insult but ultimately it was only the sign-off that mattered.
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.
In this case it’s largely becuase, as Foxy has already pointed out, there was so much else going on at the time. Almost every country in Europe was wracked by revolution or civil unrest, many of them by full scale war. For example, in the former Russian Empire maybe 13 million people died in a civil war. There was also a nasty worldwide economic shock in 1920-21 which diverted attention away from death rates. Because of these factors, the press was under tight control which meant it wasn’t widely reported on. Finally, the fact that in social history studies it has always been linked with the more dramatic First World War has tended to shine the spotlight away from it.
It pops up in many autobiographies or quasi-autobiographies of the period - Shute, for example, or Rolt, or Buchan. But equally it gets missed in others - Meyrick, for example, just talks about how London was busy in 1919 with everyone trying to forget the war.
There was in fact a second, longer lasting (and more lethal although fortunately smaller scale) pandemic at the same time, which I am guessing most people here have never heard of. Anyone heard of it?
No, do tell. Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
Wikipedia, unhelpfully, doesn’t put this particular pandemic in 1919, even though it was at its height in 1918-1919 with a heavy overhang in 1920 (which the article doesn’t mention).
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.
Yes, it seems to be referred to as The Great Encephalitis Pandemic (1915-1926). Smallpox, of course, killed around five million a year, every year on average, until eradication efforts started.
That’s the one. Can’t have been many plagues in history with that high a mortality rate - it is comparable to the Black Death - but fortunately it was not nearly so virulent.
Edit - smallpox of course for all it was so infectious didn’t have that high a mortality rate, although it was higher than this current one.
In some sense, seeing what is happening in Italy and Spain helps as it's more expected. If we can control it a little better than in either of those countries that would be a relatively good outcome. We might be helped by not having quite as bad a hotspot as Lombardy or Madrid (London is not nearly as much of an outlier as Lombardy) so can spread the care a little better (although Hampshire and Birmingham may also be difficult).
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
If the apex should turn out to be a sustained plateau rather than a pointy peak it might play a significant role that fatalities are lagging by several weeks, i.e. will still be rising while new infections don't.
Yeah - it will look really grim for a period as fatalities definitely do lag...
What do you reckon will be the peak daily fatality rate for the UK? 1000? 1500?
PB competition ?
To speculate on that is in really poor taste
Its been happening for weeks here and elsewhere.
Speculate, yes, have s competition not so much...
And I'm not organising one but many of us have morbid humour at times.
Besides there already is a PB competition on first famous death.
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
Your ability to ignore facts for the sake of political point scoring is truly shameful. I suggest you go and look at the minutes of the NERVTAG committee before coming on here spouting your bullshit.
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
According to the ICO they wouldn’t even have needed an emergency bill to track mobile phones. Public health is a legitimate purpose under GDPR/DPA 18.
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
That was the NHS England medical director.
You're quoting those pesky fact things again...
I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?
There will be time enough for such comparisons, credit, and blame, when this is done.
For now, while we can contemplate the possibility of copying Korea’s approach, if the lockdown is sufficiently successful, emulating (for example) Germany’s provision of 13 nurses per 1000 population simply isn’t possible from where we started.
It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....
The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.
Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.
Stupid. Your last point was that suicide at 17 a day kills more than CV. Now we are 10x that and you still haven't drawn the conclusion that increases in CV deaths are to some extent predictable. We are heading for 2x normal mortality in a system geared to cope with say normal mortality plus 10% peaks. Are you saying we should be ok with that, it's "only" double?
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
The USA has 5 deaths per million people, the same as Germany. Of course we have good reason to believe the US deaths are about to increase rapidly.
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
Low deaths also in Norway, Finland, Iceland, Taiwan and S Korea.
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
It's already apparent that the authorities love (and overstep) every extra "temporary" power they get.
So, no thanks. It'll be hard enough to roll back as it is.
By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.
Not everything. We are all responsible for our own actions - but only within the parameters of the information we have on which to make those decisions. China could - and should - have done a lot more.
Though the comparison is seriously flawed because of the variance in testing.
Yes. The fraction of positive tests per million would be much more meaningful as a statistic, but even that is biased depending upon when the tests were performed (e.g., lots of tests 3 weeks ago would give a negative result and bias the outcome).
Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?
This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.
Think of it like this:
No restrictions - R0=3
Complete lockdown - R0=0.2
The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)
What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?
Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.
If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
That was the NHS England medical director.
You're quoting those pesky fact things again...
I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?
I think it's unlikely that there's a very different death rate in the UK to Germany - it only looks that way because the UK is so far behind on testing.
The implication is that, if we'd been testing as much as Germany has, or more, then we'd probably have 100,000 cases now.
Comments
My money would be on "I Can't Go For That (No Can Do)".
There's going to be a virtual Grand National this year. In America, some people are betting on maximum temperatures in various cities.
(Do miss the sport though).
Browsing the Wikipedia page of 1919 events, it’s almost surprising that anyone noticed the pandemic at all....
From Live At The Budokan?
It is so uplifting to hear that our NHS staff are so committed to their patients...
And...even if some of us may have to be admitted...it's not terminal...you have staff though who are really caring and getting better and more experienced at handling patients...
Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?
In the UK, I don't think so now.
Five million cases, roughly two million deaths. The charming side-effect was that many of those three million survivors were left permanently disabled by it.
(The Graham seat is Loch Lomond which is on the highland borders)
Goodbye to Rosie, the queen of Corona
I think it might come but only when things seem totally out of control and everyone wants something, anything, doing.
And, of course, Fever.
England deaths about 540,000 pa, or 1480 a day
UK deaths about 610,000 pa, or about 1671 a day.
It's really hard to estimate and feels rather morbid. But I think that range is pretty accurate.
You can listen to it here, it's best played without shuffle.
https://open.spotify.com/playlist/16EgGUFlFEJjx7Fp2yasF9
https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-03-28/do-we-have-a-deal-pedro-an-inside-look-at-the-clash-between-eu-leaders-at-coronavirus-summit.html?ssm=FB_CM_EN&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR29Bgc3V3v8K3ow9Ret9sAWvJW6mQB7w24GSHF5q77U2rJcSWENFWAelbA#Echobox=1585411491
Smallpox, of course, killed around five million a year, every year on average, until eradication efforts started.
It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.
Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.
That's grim. Very grim.
Edit - smallpox of course for all it was so infectious didn’t have that high a mortality rate, although it was higher than this current one.
http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=286956
The first three have a lot of cases but their healthcare seems on a par with Germany.
The last two acted to stop the epidemic spreading. The UK could have done the same as SK if it had rushed an emergency bill to track mobile phones (for 3 months only) through parliament.
Besides there already is a PB competition on first famous death.
We are in the middle I think. Quite good on Social Distancing pretty poor on testing
For now, while we can contemplate the possibility of copying Korea’s approach, if the lockdown is sufficiently successful, emulating (for example) Germany’s provision of 13 nurses per 1000 population simply isn’t possible from where we started.
So, no thanks. It'll be hard enough to roll back as it is.
20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.
Think of it like this:
No restrictions - R0=3
Complete lockdown - R0=0.2
The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)
What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?
Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.
If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
The implication is that, if we'd been testing as much as Germany has, or more, then we'd probably have 100,000 cases now.