politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden: tough seasoned candidate or bumbling geriatric?
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1 This is the BBC interpretationdr_spyn said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52077997
@alterego
13 deaths without underlying medical problems. (unless I have misread the final sentence).
2 It doesn't address which is responsible for death twixt underlying problems and CV where both are present.
CV may have a heavy weighting (like smoking and lung cancer) but I think it's important to not lose sight of proclivities per the Government's list of health issues being high risk in association with CV.0 -
'While recklessly disobeying Govt advice I saw other people recklessly disobeying Govt advice, what stupid people they are.'felix said:
Also wtf is he doing going out on a 'daily forage for victuals'? And he's worried that some ethnic groups don't understand what is happening. Why on earth would a sane sentient person choose to go out on to the streets DAILY in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic.?Andy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.2 -
I am surprised at no post mortem in a sudden death in a fit 21 year old. Toxicology in particular.Andy_JS said:It's concerning that a coroner apparently decided to class a death as linked to coronavirus just because there was a report of the victim having coughed. I hope this isn't happening in other places. If so the figures may be higher than they should be.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/chloe-middleton-death-21-year-old-not-recorded-nhs-covid-19-related
She wouldn't feature in the figures published, as these are only hospital deaths with confirmed COVID19 on testing (hence some died on previous days and swab results awaited).
As the only people being tested are suspect hospital patients with respiratory symptoms, these are deaths due to COVID19, not just with it as an incidental finding, and likely to be a significant underestimate of all deaths.0 -
The tweet said it was the best case scenario, and that was incorrect, it was the central estimate for the prediction.Chris said:
I repeat. You were replying to my comment that because the IC models looked at a range of assumptions it wouldn't be surprising if we worse than the "best case" they looked at. And you replied "Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330." Clearly you thought 260 came from the IC models.RobD said:
Huh? I was referring to the same model in the tweet, unless Ferguson's group also predicted 260 cases per day as the peak in their best case?Chris said:
For heaven's sake, I replied to the post quoting that tweet, pointing out that the Imperial College models were looking at a range of assumptions, so it would hardly be surprising if we were worse than the "best case", and you yourself replied:RobD said:
Ah, I thought you were referring to PBers. Yes. If anything this highlights how suspect the Chinese numbers actually are.Chris said:
Look at Freedman's tweet, describing it as "the best case Imperial model"!RobD said:
I don't think anyone has suggested it came from Ferguson's group.Chris said:
All I can see here is a lot of people thinking wrongly that it comes from the modelling of the Ferguson group at Imperial, and mouthing off on that basis.RobD said:
But that's what people have been discussing in this thread, and in the tweet quoted by TSE.Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
In fact it's not a model at all - it's just shifting the Chinese curve into alignment with the curves from other countries.
"Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330."
Obviously you thought it came from the Imperial College models yourself!0 -
Use of tomorrow rather than a specific date isnt much help in that case!isam said:
Had that off different people on WhatsApp every day this weeksquareroot2 said:
I was sentbthis today. No idea of whether it is correct or spamalterego said:
Surely the peak day should be 1st April.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
This is a text from an NHS worker
As of tomorrow, do not leave home for bread for anything! Because the worst begins tomorrow as the incubation date is met and many people that are positive with the virus start to peak!! It’s at this time other people are most vulnerable! so it is very important to stay home and not to be in contact with anybody, even members of your family if possible!! Being very careful is very important and very crucial at this time!!
As from tomorrow we are going to see the start of the peak of those that are positive, then there will be two weeks of calm and then two weeks where it decreases.
* What happened in Italy is that they neglected the contagion period and that is why all the cases turned out together and so badly, plus they didn’t know what they were dealing with *.
* And finally, please do not receive visits from anyone, not even from the same family. This is all for the good of all. *
WE WILL BE IN THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF INFECTION.
* DO NOT HOLD ON TO THIS MESSAGE, PASS IT ON TO ALL YOUR CONTACTS *0 -
Three groups around where I live don't seem to be able to do social distancing - the young and the.... un-assimilated asians and eastern europeans. All three bimble along the pavements, often in groups and seems pained when you cross the road to avoid them.eadric said:
Also why COVID is likely to rip through BAME communities. Many videos out there showing lockdown being completely ignored by some Muslim and African communitiesAndy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.
In France it is even worse, and the police have admitted they simply can’t enforce social distancing in the bain lieues
Multiculturalism is about to exact a heavy price on those who can least afford it.
The Chinese and Japanese are masked up (surgical masks only) and often walk in the road to avoid pedestrians.
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Or maybe... the market pressures that drove the rise of megabucks football in the first place will recur again once C-19 is under control?Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward0 -
I mentioned on here the other day that I got my worst ever chest infection from a spliff I shared at a party in Cambridge. So he may have a point if he did.noneoftheabove said:
He has been on question time about 26 times, it seems the more extreme and ridiculous you can be, the more likely you are to be invited back.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
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Not quite....its quite complicated as a number of factors at play. Current spread when you enable the lockdown, the density of population, % of people who obey the measures, focal points, etc etc etc.ABZ said:
I don't understand the rationale here - the lockdown takes place at the same time everywhere - hence you will, approximately, have peaks at the same time everywhere. The timing of the peak is a direct function of the measures you put in place - as these have been implemented nationally the peaks should be roughly synchronous. What will differ is that the amplitude of the peak will be larger in those areas that started with more cases once the lockdown was implemented.FrancisUrquhart said:
For London....other parts of the country are 2-3 weeks behind. So I think we have to brace for appalling scenes first from the capital and then everywhere else on our screens for 4-5 weeks.Floater said:
Yes - the peak is allegedly at least a couple of weeks offFrancisUrquhart said:If anybody needed reminding before todays figures, the next month or so at least is going to be very grim.
This might give you some of the ideas and how they can shift not only the peak, but the shape of the curve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
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That's show businessnoneoftheabove said:
He has been on question time about 26 times, it seems the more extreme and ridiculous you can be, the more likely you are to be invited back.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
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It is just a table showing what would happen if x happened.RobD said:
The tweet said it was the best case scenario, and that was incorrect, it was the central estimate for the prediction.Chris said:
I repeat. You were replying to my comment that because the IC models looked at a range of assumptions it wouldn't be surprising if we worse than the "best case" they looked at. And you replied "Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330." Clearly you thought 260 came from the IC models.RobD said:
Huh? I was referring to the same model in the tweet, unless Ferguson's group also predicted 260 cases per day as the peak in their best case?Chris said:
For heaven's sake, I replied to the post quoting that tweet, pointing out that the Imperial College models were looking at a range of assumptions, so it would hardly be surprising if we were worse than the "best case", and you yourself replied:RobD said:
Ah, I thought you were referring to PBers. Yes. If anything this highlights how suspect the Chinese numbers actually are.Chris said:
Look at Freedman's tweet, describing it as "the best case Imperial model"!RobD said:
I don't think anyone has suggested it came from Ferguson's group.Chris said:
All I can see here is a lot of people thinking wrongly that it comes from the modelling of the Ferguson group at Imperial, and mouthing off on that basis.RobD said:
But that's what people have been discussing in this thread, and in the tweet quoted by TSE.Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
In fact it's not a model at all - it's just shifting the Chinese curve into alignment with the curves from other countries.
"Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330."
Obviously you thought it came from the Imperial College models yourself!
Its like showing how the Premier League would play out if the favourites won all their matches. It doesnt mean its going to happen or anyone ever expected it to.0 -
I've seen a few comments from Japanese people in Europe about getting racist abuse when they walk around wearing masks, so potentially the mask is to avoid getting attacked by the virus, and the walking in the road is to avoid getting attacked by the human.Malmesbury said:The Chinese and Japanese are masked up (surgical masks only) and often walk in the road to avoid pedestrians.
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There is surely far too much of this 'aligning curves' business going on, proving diddly squat.Chris said:
Look at Freedman's tweet, describing it as "the best case Imperial model"!RobD said:
I don't think anyone has suggested it came from Ferguson's group.Chris said:
All I can see here is a lot of people thinking wrongly that it comes from the modelling of the Ferguson group at Imperial, and mouthing off on that basis.RobD said:
But that's what people have been discussing in this thread, and in the tweet quoted by TSE.Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
In fact it's not a model at all - it's just shifting the Chinese curve into alignment with the curves from other countries.
E.g: http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid190 -
We don't know if it is still true, but last week Maajid Nawaz said that 25% of the dead at that time were Asian.eadric said:Malmesbury said:
Three groups around where I live don't seem to be able to do social distancing - the young and the.... un-assimilated asians and eastern europeans. All three bimble along the pavements, often in groups and seems pained when you cross the road to avoid them.eadric said:
Also why COVID is likely to rip through BAME communities. Many videos out there showing lockdown being completely ignored by some Muslim and African communitiesAndy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.
In France it is even worse, and the police have admitted they simply can’t enforce social distancing in the bain lieues
Multiculturalism is about to exact a heavy price on those who can least afford it.
The Chinese and Japanese are masked up (surgical masks only) and often walk in the road to avoid pedestrians.
The Chinese and Japanese will likely survive. The Muslims and east Europeans will likely die.
I went on a long walk the other day, along the Penarth cliffs. Everyone was social distancing, apart from four Romanians/Albanians (the accents were definitely south east European)
They were having a barbecue. They were very friendly. “Lovely day’”
They seemed bemused when I stepped back to keep my social distance.
Could be an unfortunate cluster, could be related to going to the mosque / temple in which an individual had it. But there are probably other factors, more likely to have certain underlying health conditions and live in multi-generational households.0 -
And being very rude about posters on here being obsessed by a poll - which they weren't - then writing reams of explanation as to why the poll didn't count. 'Methinks he doth protest too much milord'.Chameleon said:
'While recklessly disobeying Govt advice I saw other people recklessly disobeying Govt advice, what stupid people they are.'felix said:
Also wtf is he doing going out on a 'daily forage for victuals'? And he's worried that some ethnic groups don't understand what is happening. Why on earth would a sane sentient person choose to go out on to the streets DAILY in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic.?Andy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.0 -
The damage is happening now and I do believe it is going to lay waste to football as we know it.Benpointer said:
Or maybe... the market pressures that drove the rise of megabucks football in the first place will recur again once C-19 is under control?Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward
Of course I could be wrong but I do not see where the money is coming from in the populace for sports subscriptions after this economic armageddon0 -
Inform, educate, and entertain, not just entertain.alterego said:
That's show businessnoneoftheabove said:
He has been on question time about 26 times, it seems the more extreme and ridiculous you can be, the more likely you are to be invited back.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
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Yes and that still seems likely if you think about what we know of the disease. And yet the Chinese are claiming a far lower death rate than elsewhere.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am sure initially there was probably a fair bit of thought that less developed healthcare, high levels of smoking and pollution and incredibly high density housing would mean the Chinese higher death rates would be higher than the West.DavidL said:
I agree. The problem is that they have seriously underestimated how bad this would be in western countries with advanced medical systems and their figures look increasingly incredible. Their figures for the rest of China outside Wuhan, particularly so.OllyT said:
China is desperately trying to save face and salvage its international reputation. I would be amazed if their cumulative death figures are anywhere near accurate.DavidL said:
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.eadric said:
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1243243397281972225?s=21Benpointer said:
To put this into context of the resolved cases the world average is currently 17% resolved by death. Italy is currently at 45%. China, on the same basis, is claiming to be at 4%. So either the death/recovered ratio in the rest of the world is about to fall off a cliff (and it has been climbing steadily in the wrong direction since the start of this month when, dominated by China, it was at 6) or the China experience is misreported. I also fear that the final death estimates are going to creep up from our current assumptions.0 -
The abstract doesn't read that way. It says that decline in the growth of mortality rates are converging with those seen in China, and they can use that to estimate the total deaths in a number of countries.noneoftheabove said:
It is just a table showing what would happen if x happened.RobD said:
The tweet said it was the best case scenario, and that was incorrect, it was the central estimate for the prediction.Chris said:
I repeat. You were replying to my comment that because the IC models looked at a range of assumptions it wouldn't be surprising if we worse than the "best case" they looked at. And you replied "Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330." Clearly you thought 260 came from the IC models.RobD said:
Huh? I was referring to the same model in the tweet, unless Ferguson's group also predicted 260 cases per day as the peak in their best case?Chris said:
For heaven's sake, I replied to the post quoting that tweet, pointing out that the Imperial College models were looking at a range of assumptions, so it would hardly be surprising if we were worse than the "best case", and you yourself replied:RobD said:
Ah, I thought you were referring to PBers. Yes. If anything this highlights how suspect the Chinese numbers actually are.Chris said:
Look at Freedman's tweet, describing it as "the best case Imperial model"!RobD said:
I don't think anyone has suggested it came from Ferguson's group.Chris said:
All I can see here is a lot of people thinking wrongly that it comes from the modelling of the Ferguson group at Imperial, and mouthing off on that basis.RobD said:
But that's what people have been discussing in this thread, and in the tweet quoted by TSE.Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
In fact it's not a model at all - it's just shifting the Chinese curve into alignment with the curves from other countries.
"Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330."
Obviously you thought it came from the Imperial College models yourself!
Its like showing how the Premier League would play out if the favourites won all their matches. It doesnt mean its going to happen or anyone ever expected it to.0 -
My Dad, a very good footballer who played for English Universities, got a sportsman’s third from Hull. He then applied to St Edmund Hall, Oxford two months after the deadline to do a Postgrad Cert Ed. The tutors met him off the train, gave him a lift to interview and offered him a place there and then. The University left back (soccer was a bigger deal then and the Varsity Match played at Wembley) had been badly injured and they needed a replacement.Jonathan said:
Tell me you’re not naive enough to believe colleges select purely on merit?HYUFD said:
Given over 90% of Oxbridge students have at least 3 A grade A levels that is not correctJonathan said:
Corrected for you.HYUFD said:
And you need to know someone to get into LMH and Balliol to meet the people you need to know in the first placeJonathan said:
Proof if proof were needed it ain’t what you know it’s who you know.Charles said:
It’s a massive improvement in social mobility that LMH gets a look in 😂BluestBlue said:This was a fun snapshot of the British class system from the briefings yesterday:
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus.
So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with
Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).
A precisely calibrated comment.Stark_Dawning said:
What have UCL got to do with it, or was that just a random observation thrown in there?Jonathan said:
UCL is a dump.eadric said:0 -
Players will still play but on a fraction of their current salaries.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The damage is happening now and I do believe it is going to lay waste to football as we know it.Benpointer said:
Or maybe... the market pressures that drove the rise of megabucks football in the first place will recur again once C-19 is under control?Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward
Of course I could be wrong but I do not see where the money is coming from in the populace for sports subscriptions after this economic armageddon1 -
Not quite....its quite complicated as a number of factors at play. Current spread when you enable the lockdown, the density of population, % of people who obey the measures, focal points, etc etc etc.FrancisUrquhart said:ABZ said:
I don't understand the rationale here - the lockdown takes place at the same time everywhere - hence you will, approximately, have peaks at the same time everywhere. The timing of the peak is a direct function of the measures you put in place - as these have been implemented nationally the peaks should be roughly synchronous. What will differ is that the amplitude of the peak will be larger in those areas that started with more cases once the lockdown was implemented.FrancisUrquhart said:
For London....other parts of the country are 2-3 weeks behind. So I think we have to brace for appalling scenes first from the capital and then everywhere else on our screens for 4-5 weeks.Floater said:
Yes - the peak is allegedly at least a couple of weeks offFrancisUrquhart said:If anybody needed reminding before todays figures, the next month or so at least is going to be very grim.
This might give you some of the ideas and how they can shift not only the peak, but the shape of the curve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
Thanks - that's interesting. Still not sure why you would expect London to be first though?0 -
I think the issue is about critical mass that once that is reached then there are many more infection opportunities. You could see the numbers in London rising faster than the rest of the country, apart from the early hotspots that tracking resolved. If as it looks in spain, the less badly hit areas will peak first despite being slower to take off. Others have pointed out that London has the underground, lots of migrant workers living on top off each other, not to different to Madrid.ABZ said:
I don't understand the rationale here - the lockdown takes place at the same time everywhere - hence you will, approximately, have peaks at the same time everywhere. The timing of the peak is a direct function of the measures you put in place - as these have been implemented nationally the peaks should be roughly synchronous. What will differ is that the amplitude of the peak will be larger in those areas that started with more cases once the lockdown was implemented.FrancisUrquhart said:
For London....other parts of the country are 2-3 weeks behind. So I think we have to brace for appalling scenes first from the capital and then everywhere else on our screens for 4-5 weeks.Floater said:
Yes - the peak is allegedly at least a couple of weeks offFrancisUrquhart said:If anybody needed reminding before todays figures, the next month or so at least is going to be very grim.
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Thanks - that's interesting. Still not sure why you would expect London to be first though?ABZ said:
Not quite....its quite complicated as a number of factors at play. Current spread when you enable the lockdown, the density of population, % of people who obey the measures, focal points, etc etc etc.FrancisUrquhart said:ABZ said:
I don't understand the rationale here - the lockdown takes place at the same time everywhere - hence you will, approximately, have peaks at the same time everywhere. The timing of the peak is a direct function of the measures you put in place - as these have been implemented nationally the peaks should be roughly synchronous. What will differ is that the amplitude of the peak will be larger in those areas that started with more cases once the lockdown was implemented.FrancisUrquhart said:
For London....other parts of the country are 2-3 weeks behind. So I think we have to brace for appalling scenes first from the capital and then everywhere else on our screens for 4-5 weeks.Floater said:
Yes - the peak is allegedly at least a couple of weeks offFrancisUrquhart said:If anybody needed reminding before todays figures, the next month or so at least is going to be very grim.
This might give you some of the ideas and how they can shift not only the peak, but the shape of the curve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
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Snap - me also - in 1972 I think.DougSeal said:
I mentioned on here the other day that I got my worst ever chest infection from a spliff I shared at a party in Cambridge. So he may have a point if he did.noneoftheabove said:
He has been on question time about 26 times, it seems the more extreme and ridiculous you can be, the more likely you are to be invited back.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
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To be fair - if you didn't stock up before the rush, it is very hard to go a day or 2 without going out. Much more fresh stuff than long life/cans etcfelix said:
And being very rude about posters on here being obsessed by a poll - which they weren't - then writing reams of explanation as to why the poll didn't count. 'Methinks he doth protest too much milord'.Chameleon said:
'While recklessly disobeying Govt advice I saw other people recklessly disobeying Govt advice, what stupid people they are.'felix said:
Also wtf is he doing going out on a 'daily forage for victuals'? And he's worried that some ethnic groups don't understand what is happening. Why on earth would a sane sentient person choose to go out on to the streets DAILY in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic.?Andy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.0 -
I'm not sure anyone else imports as many wild animals to eat or use "medicinally" as does China. It's fads seriously threaten many species.OllyT said:
I understand that live markets have been banned but will it just go underground? I expect so.alterego said:
China's got to stop eating fad shit (for certain and for ever) if it wants to salvage its reputationOllyT said:
China is desperately trying to save face and salvage its international reputation. I would be amazed if their cumulative death figures are anywhere near accurate.DavidL said:
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.eadric said:
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1243243397281972225?s=21Benpointer said:
IIUC Sars, Covid-19, HIV-Aids and Ebola all caused by species-jumping disease from eating wild animals. Will humans learn their lesson. No.0 -
"Torturing the data" is what my stats prof at university called it.Benpointer said:
There is surely far to much of this 'aligning curves' business going on, proving diddly squat.Chris said:
Look at Freedman's tweet, describing it as "the best case Imperial model"!RobD said:
I don't think anyone has suggested it came from Ferguson's group.Chris said:
All I can see here is a lot of people thinking wrongly that it comes from the modelling of the Ferguson group at Imperial, and mouthing off on that basis.RobD said:
But that's what people have been discussing in this thread, and in the tweet quoted by TSE.Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
In fact it's not a model at all - it's just shifting the Chinese curve into alignment with the curves from other countries.
E.g: http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid190 -
To be honest if we no longer had a world where footballers were earning more than £200k a week I would be far from devastated.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward5 -
Back the f##k up mother-truckers...
Social distancing: new study suggests two metres is not enough
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/social-distancing-new-study-suggests-two-metres-not-enough/0 -
If the Chinese Communist Party decide that this is a choice between them and the animal markets, then the animal markets will go and the recalcitrant will get to meet quite a few Muslims - in their new homes in the prison camps.alterego said:
I'm not sure anyone else imports as many wild animals to eat or use "medicinally" as does China. It's fads seriously threaten many species.OllyT said:
I understand that live markets have been banned but will it just go underground? I expect so.alterego said:
China's got to stop eating fad shit (for certain and for ever) if it wants to salvage its reputationOllyT said:
China is desperately trying to save face and salvage its international reputation. I would be amazed if their cumulative death figures are anywhere near accurate.DavidL said:
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.eadric said:
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1243243397281972225?s=21Benpointer said:
IIUC Sars, Covid-19, HIV-Aids and Ebola all caused by species-jumping disease from eating wild animals. Will humans learn their lesson. No.0 -
BSE came from eating domesticated animals (albeit after feeding them to themselves) so maybe we should just stop doing thatalterego said:
I'm not sure anyone else imports as many wild animals to eat or use "medicinally" as does China. It's fads seriously threaten many species.OllyT said:
I understand that live markets have been banned but will it just go underground? I expect so.alterego said:
China's got to stop eating fad shit (for certain and for ever) if it wants to salvage its reputationOllyT said:
China is desperately trying to save face and salvage its international reputation. I would be amazed if their cumulative death figures are anywhere near accurate.DavidL said:
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.eadric said:
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1243243397281972225?s=21Benpointer said:
IIUC Sars, Covid-19, HIV-Aids and Ebola all caused by species-jumping disease from eating wild animals. Will humans learn their lesson. No.0 -
https://twitter.com/geminiorchard2/status/1243874866283130882MarqueeMark said:Although the garage a mile away sells Tunnocks tea cakes. So could survive a few weeks....
0 -
How high a profile does the Korean War have? Of the KMT’s retreat to Formosa?BluestBlue said:
On the gross politics of it, I'd ask why the Spanish Flu - despite being one of the most significant events of the 20th century - has almost no profile in the public mind. The answer seems to be that pandemics create such a visceral horror in the population that there is no incentive to dwell on them afterwards, and every incentive to forget.stodge said:
Unfortunately the truth is somewhere in the middle. I try to be polite as often as I can and perhaps I'm too verbose in developing an argument but that's how I roll as a non-user of twitter.Barnesian said:
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".kle4 said:
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
I'm irritated that people who opine several times a day on matters political seem genuinely surprised Johnson and Sunak are scoring such high ratings and take the Conservative figure of 54% as some huge vote of confidence.
We go through this every time there's a crisis - people seem surprised leadership approval ratings spike up.
MY point is none of this is politically significant and once this is over the awkward questions may well start being asked such as who decided what, when and on what basis? Was the debate about the "herd immunity" business as usual theory held in Cabinet, at Cobra or elsewhere? Were the potential consequences of the "herd immunity" strategy in terms of deaths understood or explained? If so, by whom and when?
I suspect that there will be little political capital to be gained by the Opposition from harping on about the details of herd immunity or who knew or did what and when. Essentially, everyone will be too happy to be out of lockdown and alive to do anything other than want to forget the whole ugly experience as quickly as possible. The Government will have to fuck up very, very badly indeed to pay a serious political price.
They were both fairly significant events about which the average Brit knows little0 -
Quite a moving tribute to him from his cousin, the tv jouro Zeinab Badawi, on R4's Our Own Correspondent this am.Floater said:An NHS surgeon who worked in London has become the first in the UK to die of coronavirus.
Adil El Tayar was an organ transplant consultant who worked in two of London's biggest hospitals - St Mary's and St George's.
Dr El Tayar died on March 25 at West Middlesex University Hospital in west London.
He had been self-isolating after noticing symptoms in mid-March.
He was admitted to hospital on 20 March.
I believe he is actually the second as I understand a doctor in Southend has died too0 -
I wasn't defending itnoneoftheabove said:
Inform, educate, and entertain, not just entertain.alterego said:
That's show businessnoneoftheabove said:
He has been on question time about 26 times, it seems the more extreme and ridiculous you can be, the more likely you are to be invited back.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
0 -
I've heard of success by changing to the viola, so as to apply the year that the viola player from a very successful quartet was leaving....DougSeal said:
My Dad, a very good footballer who played for English Universities, got a sportsman’s third from Hull. He then applied to St Edmund Hall, Oxford two months after the deadline to do a Postgrad Cert Ed. The tutors met him off the train, gave him a lift to interview and offered him a place there and then. The University left back (soccer was a bigger deal then and the Varsity Match played at Wembley) had been badly injured and they needed a replacement.Jonathan said:
Tell me you’re not naive enough to believe colleges select purely on merit?HYUFD said:
Given over 90% of Oxbridge students have at least 3 A grade A levels that is not correctJonathan said:
Corrected for you.HYUFD said:
And you need to know someone to get into LMH and Balliol to meet the people you need to know in the first placeJonathan said:
Proof if proof were needed it ain’t what you know it’s who you know.Charles said:
It’s a massive improvement in social mobility that LMH gets a look in 😂BluestBlue said:This was a fun snapshot of the British class system from the briefings yesterday:
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus.
So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with
Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).
A precisely calibrated comment.Stark_Dawning said:
What have UCL got to do with it, or was that just a random observation thrown in there?Jonathan said:
UCL is a dump.eadric said:0 -
The Jury is out on what is going to survive economically....Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward
I've been shocked about how much my obsessive compulsive fascination with football has simply dissipated these last three weeks....
I've kept my own subscriptions going.....
0 -
Tbf having a big wet doob passed to you would be a maximum risk activity at the moment.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm surprised he hasn't yet proclaimed a link between contracting COVID-19 and marijuana use.HYUFD said:
Peter Hitchens still thinks thatFloater said:I remind myself that only yesterday the comment sections on the Daily Mail site were saying this is a scare story by the NWO to set up a global government.......
1 -
I used to drive to LMH...BluestBlue said:
I remember having to walk there a couple of times - it felt like I was on a voyage to the moon...Charles said:
It’s a massive improvement in social mobility that LMH gets a look in 😂BluestBlue said:This was a fun snapshot of the British class system from the briefings yesterday:
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus.
So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with
Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).
1 -
On topic, it’s hard to square this polling with current betting:
https://twitter.com/colinkahl/status/1243912323619631104?s=210 -
There are reports of such things happening already, including people who allegedly called 999 and were told they were not in a priority group.stodge said:I fear there are people who will die alone, unaided, as a result of this. I fear there are those who will try to manage their illness at home without outside help and hope their family or house mates can help them if things get bad.
The pictures from the Excel centre this morning are remarkable, but even more so when you realise it may soon be full of people in acute medical distress.0 -
I normally go shopping daily - I'm retired and have the time - I enjoy it. Now I keep it to once a week without any difficulty. It benefits me obviously but also makes me one less nuisance for the authorities to worry about. Everyone should be trying to pull together.Malmesbury said:
To be fair - if you didn't stock up before the rush, it is very hard to go a day or 2 without going out. Much more fresh stuff than long life/cans etcfelix said:
And being very rude about posters on here being obsessed by a poll - which they weren't - then writing reams of explanation as to why the poll didn't count. 'Methinks he doth protest too much milord'.Chameleon said:
'While recklessly disobeying Govt advice I saw other people recklessly disobeying Govt advice, what stupid people they are.'felix said:
Also wtf is he doing going out on a 'daily forage for victuals'? And he's worried that some ethnic groups don't understand what is happening. Why on earth would a sane sentient person choose to go out on to the streets DAILY in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic.?Andy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.0 -
How many models get made and shared on PB?RobD said:
Maybe a better question is, why are they even making these naive models in the first place? Seems highly irresponsible.ABZ said:
I don't think Imperial were to be fair...RobD said:
Why in God's name are they publicising it then?ABZ said:
To be fair, they were not epidemiologists. The model was naive and not based on anything to do with epidemic modelling, so really unfair to equate it to the work of Neil Ferguson et al., who are absolute pros at this...Jonathan said:
UCL is a dump.eadric said:0 -
Quite - why on earth is such nonsense even being posted?DavidL said:
To be honest if we no longer had a world where footballers were earning more than £200k a week I would be far from devastated.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward0 -
Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible0 -
More importantly why do we allow Imperial College to be called that? It’s a disgrace! We should rename it Exhibition College or something. It’s upsetting for people who directly suffered from the Empire otherwise!Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf0 -
What mask should I be buying for when I go out?0
-
Likely the only country able to afford those kind of wages will be China.DavidL said:
To be honest if we no longer had a world where footballers were earning more than £200k a week I would be far from devastated.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Covid 19 - could see the fall of football as we know it
Yesterday Sky allowed me to pause their sports subscription and today BT have credited one month sport subscription with further reviews
Assuming wholesale cancellation of sports subscriptions are happening now just how many will reinstate their full packages when sport returns, but maybe of an even wider concern to subscription channels is where will the money come from to afford them from the populace. I can see a large uptake of freeview
I assume the broadcasters will litigate over broken contracts but the obscene flow of money into football is going to come to a juddering halt.
Many clubs , including famous ones, will not survive this going forward0 -
Kaboom!!!!AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s hard to square this polling with current betting:
https://twitter.com/colinkahl/status/1243912323619631104?s=210 -
It seems like there's a portion of American voters who support their president in a time of crisis and that's showing up in the approval numbers, but that doesn't mean they're going to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s hard to square this polling with current betting:
https://twitter.com/colinkahl/status/1243912323619631104?s=211 -
They've played hokey cokey with this for years. The problem is that it's the rich and influential who are largely responsible for the most troubling abuses. Fad shit is expensive!Malmesbury said:
If the Chinese Communist Party decide that this is a choice between them and the animal markets, then the animal markets will go and the recalcitrant will get to meet quite a few Muslims - in their new homes in the prison camps.alterego said:
I'm not sure anyone else imports as many wild animals to eat or use "medicinally" as does China. It's fads seriously threaten many species.OllyT said:
I understand that live markets have been banned but will it just go underground? I expect so.alterego said:
China's got to stop eating fad shit (for certain and for ever) if it wants to salvage its reputationOllyT said:
China is desperately trying to save face and salvage its international reputation. I would be amazed if their cumulative death figures are anywhere near accurate.DavidL said:
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.eadric said:
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1243243397281972225?s=21Benpointer said:
IIUC Sars, Covid-19, HIV-Aids and Ebola all caused by species-jumping disease from eating wild animals. Will humans learn their lesson. No.0 -
When I was at Trinity we shared a rugby team with LMH. Total pain. The convention was to alternate captains between colleges every year and the captain would favour his own college in selections. You can punt directly from the college though - which is nice. Also my best friend from school was there so I knew the walk well.Charles said:
I used to drive to LMH...BluestBlue said:
I remember having to walk there a couple of times - it felt like I was on a voyage to the moon...Charles said:
It’s a massive improvement in social mobility that LMH gets a look in 😂BluestBlue said:This was a fun snapshot of the British class system from the briefings yesterday:
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus.
So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with
Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).0 -
Dont necessarily believe that about underlying health problems or reasons for death. I guess there is little time for in depth post moterms unless absolutely necessary .alterego said:
1 This is the BBC interpretationdr_spyn said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52077997
@alterego
13 deaths without underlying medical problems. (unless I have misread the final sentence).
2 It doesn't address which is responsible for death twixt underlying problems and CV where both are present.
CV may have a heavy weighting (like smoking and lung cancer) but I think it's important to not lose sight of proclivities per the Government's list of health issues being high risk in association with CV.0 -
Now this is a crisis.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/geminiorchard2/status/1243874866283130882MarqueeMark said:Although the garage a mile away sells Tunnocks tea cakes. So could survive a few weeks....
0 -
Actually, it doesn't seem to be culture but socio-economic.eadric said:
Also why COVID is likely to rip through BAME communities. Many videos out there showing lockdown being completely ignored by some Muslim and African communitiesAndy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.
In France it is even worse, and the police have admitted they simply can’t enforce social distancing in the bain lieues
Multiculturalism is about to exact a heavy price on those who can least afford it.
Looking around here(not a very large BAME community), there are streams of people coming out of the areas populated by the lower socio-economic end and, looking the other way, in the higher end, virtually nothing.
Now that may be because it's easier to cope in a big place and less so in more packed living conditions, but there does also seem to be a different attitude as well.
1 -
Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.Charles said:
He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.Theuniondivvie said:
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kiltsTheuniondivvie said:
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malcmalcolmg said:
Lovely day here for a changeIanB2 said:Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.0 -
edmundintokyo said:
It seems like there's a portion of American voters who support their president in a time of crisis and that's showing up in the approval numbers, but that doesn't mean they're going to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s hard to square this polling with current betting:
https://twitter.com/colinkahl/status/1243912323619631104?s=21
His approval ratings for the crisis are very poor....they should be up in the 70's...0 -
I can't believe the official number of cases - 17,000 - bears any relation to the real number now, so I can't believe a slight trend in the percentage growth rate of the daily number of new cases is telling us much at all.Andrew said:Similar sort of progression for UK daily cases as we've seen elsewhere - this is since we hit 100 cases (ignore that the trendline is linear, just put in there to compare daily variance with the different time periods)
Given the number of deaths, there must be several hundred thousand cases now. Maybe half a million.0 -
Chorizo and broad bean risotto is less nice than it sounds. Two finger kitkats are unacceptably moreish.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible0 -
Good lord - we have everything we need - shops are well stocked with all of our regular goodies and some. Yesterday pasta and minced beef; tonight southern fried chicken with peas and broccoli, sunday loin of pork roast potatoes, etc......tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible0 -
I could really eat one of those bad boys now.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/geminiorchard2/status/1243874866283130882MarqueeMark said:Although the garage a mile away sells Tunnocks tea cakes. So could survive a few weeks....
0 -
Do we need one ?Freggles said:What mask should I be buying for when I go out?
It's the one bit of PPE I'm not going to bother with. Then again I'm in quite a rural area.
Filled the misses' car today - Disposable gloves for the petrol pump. We have to travel during the lockdown, that won't apply to everyone mind.0 -
He is a Lib Dem...felix said:
Also wtf is he doing going out on a 'daily forage for victuals'? And he's worried that some ethnic groups don't understand what is happening. Why on earth would a sane sentient person choose to go out on to the streets DAILY in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic.?Andy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.-1 -
Anyone know what the UK doubling time is, before and after lockdown?
The difference between two and three days makes the difference between ~500,000 cases and 17,000,000 cases ... around now.0 -
Funnily enough, the "technology transfer" division of the College used to be called "Imperial Exploitation". I think it's now known as IMPEL for some reason.Charles said:
More importantly why do we allow Imperial College to be called that? It’s a disgrace! We should rename it Exhibition College or something. It’s upsetting for people who directly suffered from the Empire otherwise!Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf0 -
Charts on this thread showing various countries rates etc. Up from 2 to about 2.5 days. Scary one is Spain, no real sign of any slowing down.rural_voter said:Anyone know what the UK doubling time is, before and after lockdown?
The difference between two and three days makes the difference between ~500,000 cases and 17,000,000 cases ... around now.
Interesting that even before the lockdown the UK was already "flattening the curve".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/52075063/page/20 -
So now you met four Albanians at once? Talk about doubling down when onto a loser! Quadrupling, even.eadric said:Malmesbury said:
Three groups around where I live don't seem to be able to do social distancing - the young and the.... un-assimilated asians and eastern europeans. All three bimble along the pavements, often in groups and seems pained when you cross the road to avoid them.eadric said:
Also why COVID is likely to rip through BAME communities. Many videos out there showing lockdown being completely ignored by some Muslim and African communitiesAndy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.
In France it is even worse, and the police have admitted they simply can’t enforce social distancing in the bain lieues
Multiculturalism is about to exact a heavy price on those who can least afford it.
The Chinese and Japanese are masked up (surgical masks only) and often walk in the road to avoid pedestrians.
The Chinese and Japanese will likely survive. The Muslims and east Europeans will likely die.
I went on a long walk the other day, along the Penarth cliffs. Everyone was social distancing, apart from four Romanians/Albanians (the accents were definitely south east European)
They were having a barbecue. They were very friendly. “Lovely day’”
They seemed bemused when I stepped back to keep my social distance.0 -
Seems to be some evidence for them, especially if it becomes normalizedPulpstar said:
Do we need one ?Freggles said:What mask should I be buying for when I go out?
It's the one bit of PPE I'm not going to bother with. Then again I'm in quite a rural area.
Filled the misses' car today - Disposable gloves for the petrol pump. We have to travel during the lockdown, that won't apply to everyone mind.0 -
You can't write about those potholes if you don't do your basic research.Charles said:
He is a Lib Dem...felix said:
Also wtf is he doing going out on a 'daily forage for victuals'? And he's worried that some ethnic groups don't understand what is happening. Why on earth would a sane sentient person choose to go out on to the streets DAILY in the midst of a highly contagious pandemic.?Andy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.1 -
I see twitter have switched back from Boris is personally hiding all the bodies to Boris the Butcher again.0
-
I'm not a meat eater...but chorizo and broad bean risotto doesn't sound that nice...IshmaelZ said:
Chorizo and broad bean risotto is less nice than it sounds. Two finger kitkats are unacceptably moreish.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
Hmmm...I love a courgette risotto....but sadly have no risotto rice, courgettes, or parmiggiano., or garlic....but I have white wine which I would splashed a little into...
0 -
I understand time issue but the more we know about correlation between deaths and risk factors the better we can shelter those most at risk. A difficult balance like most decisions at present.squareroot2 said:
Dont necessarily believe that about underlying health problems or reasons for death. I guess there is little time for in depth post moterms unless absolutely necessary .alterego said:
1 This is the BBC interpretationdr_spyn said:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52077997
@alterego
13 deaths without underlying medical problems. (unless I have misread the final sentence).
2 It doesn't address which is responsible for death twixt underlying problems and CV where both are present.
CV may have a heavy weighting (like smoking and lung cancer) but I think it's important to not lose sight of proclivities per the Government's list of health issues being high risk in association with CV.0 -
Glancing at the UK dashboard - at first glance the virus seems to be very much more prevalent in Remain than Leave areas. Very striking. At the risk of re-igniting the fires.......0
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As I remainer, I was completely against a stupid No Deal Brexit, but in an example of unintended consequences, I had built up a fair supply of canned and dried goods in case one happened.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
So, ok for food at moment.0 -
No lockdown is ever perfect, and the virus will continue to spread faster where the current infection rate is higher, and where breaking the lockdown rules is more likely to bring you into contact with other people (directly or via surfaces)ABZ said:
I don't understand the rationale here - the lockdown takes place at the same time everywhere - hence you will, approximately, have peaks at the same time everywhere. The timing of the peak is a direct function of the measures you put in place - as these have been implemented nationally the peaks should be roughly synchronous. What will differ is that the amplitude of the peak will be larger in those areas that started with more cases once the lockdown was implemented.FrancisUrquhart said:
For London....other parts of the country are 2-3 weeks behind. So I think we have to brace for appalling scenes first from the capital and then everywhere else on our screens for 4-5 weeks.Floater said:
Yes - the peak is allegedly at least a couple of weeks offFrancisUrquhart said:If anybody needed reminding before todays figures, the next month or so at least is going to be very grim.
0 -
Did I mention there were 3 other Albanians in the taxi?IanB2 said:
So now you met four Albanians at once? Talk about doubling down when onto a loser! Quadrupling, even.eadric said:Malmesbury said:
Three groups around where I live don't seem to be able to do social distancing - the young and the.... un-assimilated asians and eastern europeans. All three bimble along the pavements, often in groups and seems pained when you cross the road to avoid them.eadric said:
Also why COVID is likely to rip through BAME communities. Many videos out there showing lockdown being completely ignored by some Muslim and African communitiesAndy_JS said:
This is why London is likely to be hit harder by the virus than elsewhere.stodge said:I'm still worried by what I saw this morning while on my daily forage for victuals.
Social distancing within stores but the people queuing to get into stores all bunched up together.
I'm also far from convinced those for whom English isn't a first language fully comprehend what is happening and what they need to do. Groups of men hanging round street corners smoking and drinking but if you are in a house of 15 to 20 and one of them is sick what can you do?
I'm also far from convinced the number of reported cases is anywhere near the number of actual cases.
In France it is even worse, and the police have admitted they simply can’t enforce social distancing in the bain lieues
Multiculturalism is about to exact a heavy price on those who can least afford it.
The Chinese and Japanese are masked up (surgical masks only) and often walk in the road to avoid pedestrians.
The Chinese and Japanese will likely survive. The Muslims and east Europeans will likely die.
I went on a long walk the other day, along the Penarth cliffs. Everyone was social distancing, apart from four Romanians/Albanians (the accents were definitely south east European)
They were having a barbecue. They were very friendly. “Lovely day’”
They seemed bemused when I stepped back to keep my social distance.
0 -
I don't believe the Falklands comparison works here. That was a UK v Argentina issue whilst Covid19 is worldwide - the first Gulf War might be a better analogy. Beyond that , the 1983 election was just a year after the conflict ended. Thatcher's 1987 victory was based on the Lawson boom not the success in the South Atlantic - indeed she came close to being toppled early in 1986 over the Westland affair.BluestBlue said:
Perhaps. Personally, I think that if Boris is seen to have led the country through this crisis with an acceptable level of damage, then he will as untouchable as Thatcher was after the Falklands, both inside the party and nationally. Sunak is definitely one to watch for the future, though - perhaps this experience will forge the two into a kind of Cameron-Osborne duumvirate that would serve the interests of them both.stodge said:Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.0 -
That's mainly because Remain areas tend to be more urban. The Highlands of Scotland also voted Remain but I doubt they'll be as affected, so it probably isn't anything to do with how people voted in the referendum.felix said:Glancing at the UK dashboard - at first glance the virus seems to be very much more prevalent in Remain than Leave areas. Very striking. At the risk of re-igniting the fires.......
0 -
felix said:
Good lord - we have everything we need - shops are well stocked with all of our regular goodies and some. Yesterday pasta and minced beef; tonight southern fried chicken with peas and broccoli, sunday loin of pork roast potatoes, etc......tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
I hated going to the supermarket food shopping at the best of times...now facing the prospect of dying to undertake this horrible inconvenience, I'm postponing it as long as possible...
My wife has metamorphosed into a female incarnate of Howard Hughes which is hardly helping matters...0 -
A few days ago I joked about having an exclusive clip from a new BBC public information film.
Today that clip is now a new BBC public information film: https://twitter.com/BBC/status/12435234148387184723 -
Our local garage provides disposable gloves for everybody, whether buying fuel or newspapers (or Tunnock's tea cakes). And we aren't exactly a hot-spot - I think Devon has had 15 extra cases this week, from 50 to 65. But everyone is taking it VERY seriously, even though the odds of coming into contact with it are still quite remote. Fuel sales are W-A-Y down.Pulpstar said:
Do we need one ?Freggles said:What mask should I be buying for when I go out?
It's the one bit of PPE I'm not going to bother with. Then again I'm in quite a rural area.
Filled the misses' car today - Disposable gloves for the petrol pump. We have to travel during the lockdown, that won't apply to everyone mind.0 -
I would be OK if I could deal with these mice raiding my emergency food store every night.rottenborough said:
As I remainer, I was completely against a stupid No Deal Brexit, but in an example of unintended consequences, I had built up a fair supply of canned and dried goods in case one happened.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
So, ok for food at moment.
0 -
Tried a cat?IanB2 said:
I would be OK if I could deal with these mice raiding my emergency food store every night.rottenborough said:
As I remainer, I was completely against a stupid No Deal Brexit, but in an example of unintended consequences, I had built up a fair supply of canned and dried goods in case one happened.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
So, ok for food at moment.0 -
alterego said:
They've played hokey cokey with this for years. The problem is that it's the rich and influential who are largely responsible for the most troubling abuses. Fad shit is expensive!Malmesbury said:
If the Chinese Communist Party decide that this is a choice between them and the animal markets, then the animal markets will go and the recalcitrant will get to meet quite a few Muslims - in their new homes in the prison camps.alterego said:
I'm not sure anyone else imports as many wild animals to eat or use "medicinally" as does China. It's fads seriously threaten many species.OllyT said:
I understand that live markets have been banned but will it just go underground? I expect so.alterego said:
China's got to stop eating fad shit (for certain and for ever) if it wants to salvage its reputationOllyT said:
China is desperately trying to save face and salvage its international reputation. I would be amazed if their cumulative death figures are anywhere near accurate.DavidL said:
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.eadric said:
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/1243243397281972225?s=21Benpointer said:
IIUC Sars, Covid-19, HIV-Aids and Ebola all caused by species-jumping disease from eating wild animals. Will humans learn their lesson. No.
But when the Party decides that you are not acting in the interests of the Party....0 -
I think the next risotto will be broad bean, pea and mint. Covid doing its bit for veganism.tyson said:
I'm not a meat eater...but chorizo and broad bean risotto doesn't sound that nice...IshmaelZ said:
Chorizo and broad bean risotto is less nice than it sounds. Two finger kitkats are unacceptably moreish.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
Hmmm...I love a courgette risotto....but sadly have no risotto rice, courgettes, or parmiggiano., or garlic....but I have white wine which I would splashed a little into...0 -
I don't think the intellectual middle classes are that clean....not good at washing hands and that kind of thing....it's why I speculated that Boris got it last night....Andy_JS said:
That's mainly because Remain areas tend to be more urban.felix said:Glancing at the UK dashboard - at first glance the virus seems to be very much more prevalent in Remain than Leave areas. Very striking. At the risk of re-igniting the fires.......
1 -
Much though I hate to admit it Liverpool had a pretty good go.noneoftheabove said:
It is just a table showing what would happen if x happened.RobD said:
The tweet said it was the best case scenario, and that was incorrect, it was the central estimate for the prediction.Chris said:
I repeat. You were replying to my comment that because the IC models looked at a range of assumptions it wouldn't be surprising if we worse than the "best case" they looked at. And you replied "Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330." Clearly you thought 260 came from the IC models.RobD said:
Huh? I was referring to the same model in the tweet, unless Ferguson's group also predicted 260 cases per day as the peak in their best case?Chris said:
For heaven's sake, I replied to the post quoting that tweet, pointing out that the Imperial College models were looking at a range of assumptions, so it would hardly be surprising if we were worse than the "best case", and you yourself replied:RobD said:
Ah, I thought you were referring to PBers. Yes. If anything this highlights how suspect the Chinese numbers actually are.Chris said:
Look at Freedman's tweet, describing it as "the best case Imperial model"!RobD said:
I don't think anyone has suggested it came from Ferguson's group.Chris said:
All I can see here is a lot of people thinking wrongly that it comes from the modelling of the Ferguson group at Imperial, and mouthing off on that basis.RobD said:
But that's what people have been discussing in this thread, and in the tweet quoted by TSE.Chris said:
That's not from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team at all.RobD said:
Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330.Chris said:
Why do people find it so, so hard to understand the very basic fact that the Imperial College modelling is producing a range of predictions based on different conditions?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's hardly surprising that we are doing worse than the "best case" model. By definition of "best case". Is it perhaps a problem with understanding English rather than Maths?
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1243243397281972225
It's from a preprint by one W. T. Pike of Imperial College and one V. Saini of "the Lown Institute" in Brookline, Massachusetts:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf
In fact it's not a model at all - it's just shifting the Chinese curve into alignment with the curves from other countries.
"Actually, 260 was the estimate. Lower and upper bounds were 210 and 330."
Obviously you thought it came from the Imperial College models yourself!
Its like showing how the Premier League would play out if the favourites won all their matches. It doesnt mean its going to happen or anyone ever expected it to.0 -
Very little meat on them.welshowl said:
Tried a cat?IanB2 said:
I would be OK if I could deal with these mice raiding my emergency food store every night.rottenborough said:
As I remainer, I was completely against a stupid No Deal Brexit, but in an example of unintended consequences, I had built up a fair supply of canned and dried goods in case one happened.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
So, ok for food at moment.2 -
Would merely be entertainment for my dog.welshowl said:
Tried a cat?IanB2 said:
I would be OK if I could deal with these mice raiding my emergency food store every night.rottenborough said:
As I remainer, I was completely against a stupid No Deal Brexit, but in an example of unintended consequences, I had built up a fair supply of canned and dried goods in case one happened.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
So, ok for food at moment.0 -
Just walked the dog
Saw less than 20 people in total and only 8 vehicles moving.
This is in Colchester
However reports from extended family in London are pretty much the opposite - where is our epicentre again?0 -
Vegetarian tagine with grilled haloumi cheese last night; a beef chilli tonight; roast chicken dinner tomorrow (with a crumble and custard).felix said:
Good lord - we have everything we need - shops are well stocked with all of our regular goodies and some. Yesterday pasta and minced beef; tonight southern fried chicken with peas and broccoli, sunday loin of pork roast potatoes, etc......tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
We are surviving.....2 -
Ah. Good point.IanB2 said:
Would merely be entertainment for my dog.welshowl said:
Tried a cat?IanB2 said:
I would be OK if I could deal with these mice raiding my emergency food store every night.rottenborough said:
As I remainer, I was completely against a stupid No Deal Brexit, but in an example of unintended consequences, I had built up a fair supply of canned and dried goods in case one happened.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
So, ok for food at moment.0 -
Well it's Saturday but you wouldn't know it. Every day is exactly the same.3
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It's crazy... I don't understand what is going on there at all...Floater said:Just walked the dog
Saw less than 20 people in total and only 8 vehicles moving.
This is in Colchester
However reports from extended family in London are pretty much the opposite - where is our epicentre again?0 -
You would want some parmiggiano in that too....but does sound delicious....IshmaelZ said:
I think the next risotto will be broad bean, pea and mint. Covid doing its bit for veganism.tyson said:
I'm not a meat eater...but chorizo and broad bean risotto doesn't sound that nice...IshmaelZ said:
Chorizo and broad bean risotto is less nice than it sounds. Two finger kitkats are unacceptably moreish.tyson said:Food wise...how are people going?
we are now onto mash potatoes and baked beans with some cheddar ontop...lovely actually...my goto dish as a student....I'm holding out going back to the supermarket as long as possible
Hmmm...I love a courgette risotto....but sadly have no risotto rice, courgettes, or parmiggiano., or garlic....but I have white wine which I would splashed a little into...
0 -
I have to say I am losing track of days. I am a WFHer, but obviously weekends we usually have sport to keep me in check with things.kinabalu said:Well it's Saturday but you wouldn't know it. Every day is exactly the same.
2 -
I think this is a very important insight.edmundintokyo said:
It seems like there's a portion of American voters who support their president in a time of crisis and that's showing up in the approval numbers, but that doesn't mean they're going to vote for him.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, it’s hard to square this polling with current betting:
https://twitter.com/colinkahl/status/1243912323619631104?s=211
