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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden: tough seasoned candidate or bumbling geriatric?

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)

    This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.

    Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics

    All good, except Brexit was never the common ground ; quite the opposite. This is an attempt to conflate Johnson's broadly ideologically flexible liberalism, which he's had for many years, with his stance on Brexit, which emerges from somewhere quite different, and something quite different in him.
    One thing that is correct, is trying to portray Johnson as a right wing, foaming at the mouth extremist doesn't work.

    Remember the hilarious campaign against him on his first run for Mayor - trying too portray him as BNP-lite? Had everyone I knew going WTF??
    More recently he has been portrayed as the opposite. Not right wing authoritarian enough, with his limp approach to a lockdown....
    Another symptom of BDS?
    I honestly think it's more just that whilst Boris is not that complicated in the way he operates, he also doesn't neatly fit into certain boxes the way people wish he would. I mean, I think he's a bit of an arse but no doubt there's evidence out there of him being decent occasionally after all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    eristdoof said:

    DougSeal said:

    Don’t shoot the messenger- I’m just throwing this out there. Has anyone considered actually sitting down and talking with Covid-19? We may be able to reach a negotiated solution.

    Appeasement is no solution. He's a dangerous killer, who's enlisting thousands of new supporters every day. Prison's too good for him. He should be hanged.
    Anyone have a couple of quadrillion gallows ready to go?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358

    malcolmg said:

    look at this from the EBC
    BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Have these people no self awareness or principles
    https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353

    She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well made
    She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.
    Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.
    So highlighting an actual problem and encouraging people to reach out to the societal provisions for dealing with that problem makes you an arse?

    There's a big chunk of timber stuck in your eye, friend.
    whilst flying about the country with the virus and breaking all the rules the plebs get beat up for, but hey make a crappy speech and it is all right, get up off your belly.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    look at this from the EBC
    BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Have these people no self awareness or principles
    https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353

    She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well made
    She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.
    Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.
    She is staying at Clarence House herself and she made the speech you attacked, not Charles.
    The fact you decided to abuse her for making a speech about domestic violence says more about you than me
    She is in Scotland
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    DougSeal said:

    Don’t shoot the messenger- I’m just throwing this out there. Has anyone considered actually sitting down and talking with Covid-19? We may be able to reach a negotiated solution.

    Appeasement is no solution. He's a dangerous killer, who's enlisting thousands of new supporters every day. Prison's too good for him. He should be hanged.
    Solitary confinement for the rest of his days.

    Then we haven't had to stoop to his level.

    (And no opportunities for politicians to lay wreaths...)

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    Surprised it wasn't that before the crisis, to be honest. She seems very popular.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    And hadn't her hand picked successor stepped down as not up to the job? Perhaps she'll need to run again next year after all.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    I just pray it returns to some sense of normality as soon as possible, I’ve no chance of any treatment at the moment so attempting to remain calm and stoic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    Is the UK on the hook for these new bonds, too?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Current opinion polling is meaningless right now. Johnson's virus opportunity is to present himself as a serious politician tackling a serious problem.

    Which he hasn't done much of up to now. The virus neutralises one of his biggest negatives.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    egg said:

    RobD said:
    With the mess up Boris and Trump made at the start of the crisis, wasted the extra time given them in muddled strategy and communication, this rally round flag bounce feels like when someone has crossed line first in GP, but we all know there was that incident, it’s going to be looked at, and they are going to be severely demoted.

    Off the top of my head George Wubulya Bush started at 55 surged to 80 and dropped to 40 during 9/11 rally round.

    On the Rally Round the flag in crisis history, do facts get re written. Churchill, world war 2 for example. When people sell Churchill they sell the Great War leader, unfatiguable determination, rousing rhetoric that lifted a nation. I understand when he toured bombed city’s he was roundly boo’d, and then thoroughly stuffed at the polls as soon as GE came along. So that also screws the correct history of the Incoming Labour administration, on the grounds they would have to have made a fantastic connection with voters to have beaten Churchill surely, when the true answer is no, they didn’t. They just were not the unpopular Churchill.
    George W Bush was re elected.

    Churchill would have won a landslide in a 1940 general election, by July 1945 the war in Europe was won and the Tories had been in power over a decade
    Are you saying it’s Impossible for someone to have big rally round surge when their dithering created the scale of the mess? I’m not. 🙂

    I’m dealing in facts here not comparing current polling with normal polling but with the rally round surge that comes in crisis. That’s the true comparison. Hence Trumps virtually non movement is very bad for him.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?
    We're not giving you our credit card, or words to that effect.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...

    https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19

    Dear Dr Foxy, are the garments supposed to be more protective when they are well worn in?
    Asking for a friend.
    I would certainly recommend washing them first...
    Slightly disappointing, according to my friend. He prefers them a little more 'spicy'.
    Add some turmeric?

    Seriously though, is just a scarf or thong better than nothing. Technically common and garden face masks offered no protection anyway? So all we are doing is making a show so those around us feel a bit easier we are not breathing or worse on them?

    So a scarf? A snood? Thong.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    Is the UK on the hook for these new bonds, too?

    No, they would be for the Eurozone countries.

  • RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    Surprised it wasn't that before the crisis, to be honest. She seems very popular.
    Two months ago it was still in the mid to high 50s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    You don't understand how such dictatorial governments think - and this is one that is trying to eliminate an entire culture though re-education camps...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?
    We're not giving you our credit card, or words to that effect.
    Heartwarming stuff.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.
    I believe the widespread approach was uses of additional sensors on top of all the usual surveillance systems they have in place to make sure people where obeying the rules. They also placed big speaker system in neighbourhoods, in which they would order things like the time "tower 1" could come out for their walk and when they had to go back inside.

    Also, it is a hell of a lot easier to enforce social compliance, when rather than a £30 fine, they have tools like loss of social credit score which can effect your whole life to being sent to a labour camp.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    look at this from the EBC
    BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Have these people no self awareness or principles
    https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353

    She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well made
    She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.
    Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.
    She is staying at Clarence House herself and she made the speech you attacked, not Charles.
    The fact you decided to abuse her for making a speech about domestic violence says more about you than me
    She is in Scotland
    He is a thick numpty
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    Is the UK on the hook for these new bonds, too?
    No, but it doesn't matter because they will never happen. Instead governments will write their own paper and the ECB will buy it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    Is the UK on the hook for these new bonds, too?
    wouldn't that be a laugh given the oft repeated Brexit is Done , on here.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    No idea. I do note though from Defoe Journal of the Plague Year that it was the absolutely standard way of dealing with cases, and the most horrific aspect of the whole thing, to seal up houses with known cases and put a watchman on the door to prevent escapes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?
    We're not giving you our credit card, or words to that effect.
    Heartwarming stuff.
    Cold hearted but fair.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    Is the UK on the hook for these new bonds, too?

    No, they would be for the Eurozone countries.

    OK. The article suggests it was all EU members, not just eurozone.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.

    Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck

    Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?
    Let’s not write him off yet, he’s somehow sustained the impression he’s sane for four years.
    The dangerous thing about Trump is that he has convinced his thick core voters that everything in the "lamestream" media is lies and Fake News. Only he and Fox News speak the truth. You have to give him credit for pulling that off, Josef Goebbels would have been proud.
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    And hadn't her hand picked successor stepped down as not up to the job? Perhaps she'll need to run again next year after all.
    Not categorically impossible, but unlikely.
    The CV crisis does have reshuffeled the cards, though. Merz has been taken out literally by the virus, Laschet figuratively so. Spahn has been able to raise his profile considerably, Röttgen has been forgotten.
    The new frontrunner for the Union candidature is the CSU's Markus Söder, Spahn for the CDU chair.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

    Yes and remember the videos of people collapsing in the street?

    That hasn't happened anywhere else with the virus, so was probably completely unrelated.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,609
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    So if it was just a few hundred blocks where infected people were living, rather than "significant" numbers, that makes it okay?

    Or if it was a local mayor's policy, rather than the central government's?

    China only achieved what they have (if you believe their numbers in the first place, which I doubt), by pivoting from ignoring the problem to having the army on the streets unafraid to shoot people for leaving their houses, within a couple of days.

    Actions that are not compatible with anything approaching a democratic nation. Quarantines and curfews are one thing, the actions of the Chinese quite another.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited March 2020

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

    Yes and remember the videos of people collapsing in the street?

    That hasn't happened anywhere else with the virus, so was probably completely unrelated.
    I thought there were similar stories from Italy?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    Surprised it wasn't that before the crisis, to be honest. She seems very popular.
    She is popular with the population in the political middle. Those voting AfD are not so enamoured with her.

    I think it is fair to say that many who don't support the CDU still like her approach and way of governing. She also has quite a knack of being a Teflon Leader, partly because she let's her cabinet deal with making announcements, and only steps in when a problem gets too large, like she has done with the pandemic. The only difficult situation for which the blame did stick with her was the assylum crisis.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited March 2020

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    And hadn't her hand picked successor stepped down as not up to the job? Perhaps she'll need to run again next year after all.
    Not categorically impossible, but unlikely.
    The CV crisis does have reshuffeled the cards, though. Merz has been taken out literally by the virus, Laschet figuratively so. Spahn has been able to raise his profile considerably, Röttgen has been forgotten.
    The new frontrunner for the Union candidature is the CSU's Markus Söder, Spahn for the CDU chair.
    I'd read that Söder was having a good war, how do you rate his chances? My reading is that he will fall down at the same stage other CSU leaders have when trying to run for Union leader.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    And hadn't her hand picked successor stepped down as not up to the job? Perhaps she'll need to run again next year after all.
    Not categorically impossible, but unlikely.
    The CV crisis does have reshuffeled the cards, though. Merz has been taken out literally by the virus, Laschet figuratively so. Spahn has been able to raise his profile considerably, Röttgen has been forgotten.
    The new frontrunner for the Union candidature is the CSU's Markus Söder, Spahn for the CDU chair.
    I think a CSU Kanzlerkandidat would be bad for the CDU in a national election.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    So if it was just a few hundred blocks where infected people were living, rather than "significant" numbers, that makes it okay?

    Or if it was a local mayor's policy, rather than the central government's?

    China only achieved what they have (if you believe their numbers in the first place, which I doubt), by pivoting from ignoring the problem to having the army on the streets unafraid to shoot people for leaving their houses, within a couple of days.

    Actions that are not compatible with anything approaching a democratic nation. Quarantines and curfews are one thing, the actions of the Chinese quite another.
    And there is an epistemological point here. Even if the commenter were a highly respected sinologist who had lived in Wuhan for 40 years, "seriously doubt" and "certainly" would be massively overconfident statements about what this particular government would do in this particular crisis. Let's accept that there are unknowns out there.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    *biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.
    I was slightly surprised that there was no uplift in the SNP vote although national polls like this are quite crude. Nicola has done very well through this so far and has possibly had a stroke of luck in the Salmond trial which got far, far less coverage than it would in normal times.
    I'm sure all the 'Nicola Knew' stuff is being kept in reserve for when everyone has stopped coughing.
  • MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    And hadn't her hand picked successor stepped down as not up to the job? Perhaps she'll need to run again next year after all.
    Not categorically impossible, but unlikely.
    The CV crisis does have reshuffeled the cards, though. Merz has been taken out literally by the virus, Laschet figuratively so. Spahn has been able to raise his profile considerably, Röttgen has been forgotten.
    The new frontrunner for the Union candidature is the CSU's Markus Söder, Spahn for the CDU chair.
    I'd read that Söder was having a good war, how do you rate his chances? My reading is that he will fall down at the same stage other CSU leaders have when trying to run for Union leader.
    Strauss in '80 was the most controversial figure you could imagine, giving him the candidature was a cunning ruse by Kohl, he never stood a realistic chance against Schmidt.

    Stoiber was in with a shot in '02 but lacked the media savvy.

    Söder would have been a much better candidate even before the crisis took off, and, as I said, must be considered the frontrunner now, with a good chance to win a clear plurality, at the least.
  • eristdoof said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    More evidence of a rally to the leader effect:

    https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1243654522024742913?s=19

    And hadn't her hand picked successor stepped down as not up to the job? Perhaps she'll need to run again next year after all.
    Not categorically impossible, but unlikely.
    The CV crisis does have reshuffeled the cards, though. Merz has been taken out literally by the virus, Laschet figuratively so. Spahn has been able to raise his profile considerably, Röttgen has been forgotten.
    The new frontrunner for the Union candidature is the CSU's Markus Söder, Spahn for the CDU chair.
    I think a CSU Kanzlerkandidat would be bad for the CDU in a national election.
    Opinions vary on that. In my estimate he has a good chance to recover more votes from the right fringe than he would lose in the centre, nationwide.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

    Yes and remember the videos of people collapsing in the street?

    That hasn't happened anywhere else with the virus, so was probably completely unrelated.
    I thought there were similar stories from Italy?
    I can believe the collapsing in the street in a few extreme case, shocking though it is.

    When the health system cant keep up (Wuhan and N. Italy) and an elderly person has no one to buy food for him/her. At home their breathing is manageable as they are not exerting themselves, but underestaimate how much effort walking to the shops is when their lung effecacy is a quarter of what it should be.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

    Yes and remember the videos of people collapsing in the street?

    That hasn't happened anywhere else with the virus, so was probably completely unrelated.
    I thought there were similar stories from Italy?
    There are
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    eadric said:

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    *biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.
    Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland. :D:p

    I love an occasional and selective sub-sample :smiley:
    The Python&Radiohead hating Albanian taxi driver (loved pineapple pizza) I met the other day was an expert on Scottish poll sub-samples, as it happens.....
    Has my Albanian cab driver become a meme?!

    Lol. You guys are BONKERS.

    FWIW - you won’t believe me - he really exists, and I faithfully reported everything he said.
    He told me he was meme.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eadric said:

    Is this true?

    “As was also predictable from early on, once an outbreak became established in a country, the only alternative to a near-universal domestic epidemic was a shut-down of the economy and society in affected regions – which would come with a terrible economic toll.”

    SWEDEN begs to differ

    https://twitter.com/godelnik/status/1243872578537734145?s=21

    How Sweden fares will be a fascinating subplot.

    I have an acquaintance who fled the UK back to his native Sweden early on in this, because he didn't think the UK were taking enough action and had more confidence in Swedish healthcare system. Awks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373
    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

    Yes and remember the videos of people collapsing in the street?

    That hasn't happened anywhere else with the virus, so was probably completely unrelated.
    I thought there were similar stories from Italy?
    I can believe the collapsing in the street in a few extreme case, shocking though it is.

    When the health system cant keep up (Wuhan and N. Italy) and an elderly person has no one to buy food for him/her. At home their breathing is manageable as they are not exerting themselves, but underestaimate how much effort walking to the shops is when their lung effecacy is a quarter of what it should be.
    Sorry if this is upsetting. But....

    Many soldiers died early after the first world war. This was as a result of surviving gas attacks. This left them with reduced lung function and a persistent cough. This in turn put strain on the cardio-vascular system. The cause of death was generally a heart attack.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    *biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.
    I was slightly surprised that there was no uplift in the SNP vote although national polls like this are quite crude. Nicola has done very well through this so far and has possibly had a stroke of luck in the Salmond trial which got far, far less coverage than it would in normal times.
    I'm sure all the 'Nicola Knew' stuff is being kept in reserve for when everyone has stopped coughing.
    Should be very interesting for sure, if not herself all her clique and nearest and dearest were. I hope some byre cleaning is done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Look at it this way, soon the cabinet will be immune.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    *biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.
    Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland. :D:p

    I love an occasional and selective sub-sample :smiley:
    The Python&Radiohead hating Albanian taxi driver (loved pineapple pizza) I met the other day was an expert on Scottish poll sub-samples, as it happens.....
    Has my Albanian cab driver become a meme?!

    Lol. You guys are BONKERS.

    FWIW - you won’t believe me - he really exists, and I faithfully reported everything he said.
    Is setting up multiple accounts with identical personas BONKERS, or a failure of imagination? Asking for an imaginary friend.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,358
    IanB2 said:

    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?

    Lovely day here for a change
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    ABZ said:

    That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?

    In my opinion, obesity is misunderstood by the medical profession. Simply carrying around a bunch of fat cells is not, in and of itself, a medical condition - it is a symptom. It is the body's wonderful response to a problem with the problem being (in my opinion) a blood sugar spike, and/or us consuming bad things that the body can't deal with so decides to store as fat.

    That being the case, levels of sugar and carb consumption could be heavily implicated in the fortunes of sufferers. This would tally with diabetics (especially, I assume, type 1 sufferers) being vulnerable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    I read that those videos were of apartments being repossessed and secured and nothing to do with the virus.

    A lot of rhe outdoor videos supposedly from Wuhan showed trees full of leaves when it was actually the middle of winter there.

    Yes and remember the videos of people collapsing in the street?

    That hasn't happened anywhere else with the virus, so was probably completely unrelated.
    I thought there were similar stories from Italy?
    I can believe the collapsing in the street in a few extreme case, shocking though it is.

    When the health system cant keep up (Wuhan and N. Italy) and an elderly person has no one to buy food for him/her. At home their breathing is manageable as they are not exerting themselves, but underestaimate how much effort walking to the shops is when their lung effecacy is a quarter of what it should be.
    This...

    A couple of years ago, I contracted something that wasn't a millions miles off the kind of symptoms of CV i.e massive fever and developed pneumonia. Before I was hospitalized, I tried to fight through for a couple of days and even going up the stairs took everything out of me...and I am not old and very fit otherwise.

    Under the current situation, I would probably would have been an edge case for hospital admission as I wasn't "drowning", just much reduced capacity. Under those circumstances and had been forced to go to the shop, I am pretty sure I wouldn't have made it all the way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Another point on CV collapses...not only serious pneumonia being a problem, but there are plenty of evidence that it attacks other organs, especially the heart, so people could also be having heart failure.

    And anybody with an underlying condition, I am sure this overwhelms them and again could easily lead to this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    eadric said:

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    *biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.
    Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland. :D:p

    I love an occasional and selective sub-sample :smiley:
    The Python&Radiohead hating Albanian taxi driver (loved pineapple pizza) I met the other day was an expert on Scottish poll sub-samples, as it happens.....
    Has my Albanian cab driver become a meme?!

    Lol. You guys are BONKERS.

    FWIW - you won’t believe me - he really exists, and I faithfully reported everything he said.
    He told me he was meme.....
    Was your meme driving a SAAB?
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    eadric said:

    Is this true?

    “As was also predictable from early on, once an outbreak became established in a country, the only alternative to a near-universal domestic epidemic was a shut-down of the economy and society in affected regions – which would come with a terrible economic toll.”

    SWEDEN begs to differ

    https://twitter.com/godelnik/status/1243872578537734145?s=21

    How Sweden fares will be a fascinating subplot.

    Aren’t Swedes known as being a bit stand-offish anyway? Sadly, we have far too great a number who think that a good night out or good work environment is to squeeze as many people as possible into a small space.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    malcolmg said:
    What an appalling thing to say.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    He had Spanish flu as a baby and survived it?
    The Spanish must be absolutely PO’d that it is called the Spanish Flu when all they did was report on it first - being neutral in WW1 their papers were under fewer reporting restrictions than in the combatant countries, and the fact the King became ill meant it appeared more prevalent there. But it didn’t start there.
  • malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?

    Lovely day here for a change
    Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc

    Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency

    I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    Is this true?

    “As was also predictable from early on, once an outbreak became established in a country, the only alternative to a near-universal domestic epidemic was a shut-down of the economy and society in affected regions – which would come with a terrible economic toll.”

    SWEDEN begs to differ

    https://twitter.com/godelnik/status/1243872578537734145?s=21

    How Sweden fares will be a fascinating subplot.

    Aren’t Swedes known as being a bit stand-offish anyway? Sadly, we have far too great a number who think that a good night out or good work environment is to squeeze as many people as possible into a small space.
    It is certainly where it is a massive advantage to be a nation who aren't known for outward displays of affection...doing La Bise with everybody in a room like the French or the huggy nature of the Italians.

    Also, not doing that religious stuff either. Catholics obviously in Spain and Italy, and here we are seeing a disproportionate number of people from the Asian and Jewish communities being struck down.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    Is this true?

    “As was also predictable from early on, once an outbreak became established in a country, the only alternative to a near-universal domestic epidemic was a shut-down of the economy and society in affected regions – which would come with a terrible economic toll.”

    SWEDEN begs to differ

    https://twitter.com/godelnik/status/1243872578537734145?s=21

    How Sweden fares will be a fascinating subplot.

    Aren’t Swedes known as being a bit stand-offish anyway? Sadly, we have far too great a number who think that a good night out or good work environment is to squeeze as many people as possible into a small space.
    It is certainly where it is a massive advantage to be a nation who aren't known for outward displays of affection...doing La Bise with everybody in a room like the French or the huggy nature of the Italians.

    Also, not doing that religious stuff either. Catholics obviously in Spain and Italy, and here we are seeing a disproportionate number of people from the Asian and Jewish community.
    We have a lot to thank the Victorians for. ;)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Latest data




  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,373

    eadric said:

    felix said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    *biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.
    Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland. :D:p

    I love an occasional and selective sub-sample :smiley:
    The Python&Radiohead hating Albanian taxi driver (loved pineapple pizza) I met the other day was an expert on Scottish poll sub-samples, as it happens.....
    Has my Albanian cab driver become a meme?!

    Lol. You guys are BONKERS.

    FWIW - you won’t believe me - he really exists, and I faithfully reported everything he said.
    Is setting up multiple accounts with identical personas BONKERS, or a failure of imagination? Asking for an imaginary friend.
    Hey, he's MY imaginary friend, not yours.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    Is this true?

    “As was also predictable from early on, once an outbreak became established in a country, the only alternative to a near-universal domestic epidemic was a shut-down of the economy and society in affected regions – which would come with a terrible economic toll.”

    SWEDEN begs to differ

    https://twitter.com/godelnik/status/1243872578537734145?s=21

    How Sweden fares will be a fascinating subplot.

    Aren’t Swedes known as being a bit stand-offish anyway? Sadly, we have far too great a number who think that a good night out or good work environment is to squeeze as many people as possible into a small space.
    It is certainly where it is a massive advantage to be a nation who aren't known for outward displays of affection...doing La Bise with everybody in a room like the French or the huggy nature of the Italians.

    Also, not doing that religious stuff either. Catholics obviously in Spain and Italy, and here we are seeing a disproportionate number of people from the Asian and Jewish community.
    We have a lot to thank the Victorians for. ;)
    I have to say I am still very awkward about all continental level of affection when I visit European friends. Just how many kisses do I do with you, and which side do I start, and no kisses with this group, but hugs...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?

    Lovely day here for a change
    Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc

    Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency

    I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
    Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?

    Huge mystery.

    Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
    As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.

    Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
    I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
    No idea. I do note though from Defoe Journal of the Plague Year that it was the absolutely standard way of dealing with cases, and the most horrific aspect of the whole thing, to seal up houses with known cases and put a watchman on the door to prevent escapes.
    No doubt like many others, I am re-reading Defoe, and was struck by the fact that the watchmen were there not only to prevent escapes, but also to buy food and other necessary items for those in the house. Notwithstanding that there was a flaw in the procedure because they couldn't do both at once, it does seem that the planners in 17th-century London were aware that people staying at home needed to eat, unlike their modern counterparts.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    malcolmg said:
    Typhoid Nadine.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    The Dutch are really missing us playing the baddie aren't they>

    I think they are missing the point completely: telling countries that have had a decade of extreme austerity and which are now coping with a human catastrophe that essentially it is all their fault and they are on their own is quite something. In the case of Spain and Portugal, at least, it also ignores just how much has been done to bring their economies back to an even keel.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    malcolmg said:
    Typhoid Nadine.
    Doesn't really work since she had symptoms, and followed the advice rather than going back to work.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Barnesian said:

    Latest data




    So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,609

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:
    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    The Dutch are really missing us playing the baddie aren't they>

    I think they are missing the point completely: telling countries that have had a decade of extreme austerity and which are now coping with a human catastrophe that essentially it is all their fault and they are on their own is quite something. In the case of Spain and Portugal, at least, it also ignores just how much has been done to bring their economies back to an even keel.

    Unless and until an EU demos develops among the general population (as opposed to a few political elites), times of crisis will always generate massive friction between member states. Monetary union cannot survive without fiscal union in the long term.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    The Dutch are really missing us playing the baddie aren't they>

    I think they are missing the point completely: telling countries that have had a decade of extreme austerity and which are now coping with a human catastrophe that essentially it is all their fault and they are on their own is quite something. In the case of Spain and Portugal, at least, it also ignores just how much has been done to bring their economies back to an even keel.

    I don't disagree, its just in times past they would have had us say it and quietly agreed behind the scenes whilst we took all the flak. What their response shows is that EU solidarity is just words on a page.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:
    Typhoid Nadine.
    Doesn't really work since she had symptoms, and followed the advice rather than going back to work.
    Are you sure? I thought she had the test, carried on working, and only isolated after the result.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I know how he feels. Woe betide those who question authority on covid-19.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1243881105540907008?s=21
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data




    So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
    I don't think you can project that from the graphs. For most countries, the slope is reducing. i.e. the exponential growth is slowing down. Some notable exceptions.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Guidance please from resident legal eagles.

    Would knocking on my neighbour's door to ask him to stop playing deafening music morning, noon and night fall within the law?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    ukpaul said:

    eadric said:

    Is this true?

    “As was also predictable from early on, once an outbreak became established in a country, the only alternative to a near-universal domestic epidemic was a shut-down of the economy and society in affected regions – which would come with a terrible economic toll.”

    SWEDEN begs to differ

    https://twitter.com/godelnik/status/1243872578537734145?s=21

    How Sweden fares will be a fascinating subplot.

    Aren’t Swedes known as being a bit stand-offish anyway? Sadly, we have far too great a number who think that a good night out or good work environment is to squeeze as many people as possible into a small space.
    It is certainly where it is a massive advantage to be a nation who aren't known for outward displays of affection...doing La Bise with everybody in a room like the French or the huggy nature of the Italians.

    Also, not doing that religious stuff either. Catholics obviously in Spain and Italy, and here we are seeing a disproportionate number of people from the Asian and Jewish communities being struck down.
    Since God wouldn't conjure up a pandemic that disproportionately felled the devout, isn’t this conclusive proof that God doesn’t exist?
  • malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?

    Lovely day here for a change
    Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc

    Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency

    I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
    Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
    My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts

    Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is

    And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:
    Typhoid Nadine.
    Doesn't really work since she had symptoms, and followed the advice rather than going back to work.
    Are you sure? I thought she had the test, carried on working, and only isolated after the result.
    From what I've read symptoms developed on the Friday, and she isolated from Saturday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    isam said:

    I know how he feels. Woe betide those who question authority on covid-19.

    twitter.com/afneil/status/1243881105540907008?s=21

    To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    HYUFD said:

    Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
    What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them
    B) people read them
    C) anybody thinks it’s relevant

    We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
    It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.

    The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.

    Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.
    I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.

    The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.

    What did the Dutch minister say?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-try-to-calm-storm-over-repugnant-finance-ministers-comments/

    The Dutch are really missing us playing the baddie aren't they>

    I think they are missing the point completely: telling countries that have had a decade of extreme austerity and which are now coping with a human catastrophe that essentially it is all their fault and they are on their own is quite something. In the case of Spain and Portugal, at least, it also ignores just how much has been done to bring their economies back to an even keel.

    I don't disagree, its just in times past they would have had us say it and quietly agreed behind the scenes whilst we took all the flak. What their response shows is that EU solidarity is just words on a page.
    Yep, that is the danger. There was polling in Spain earlier this week showing a significant fall in confidence in the EU as an institution. I am not surprised.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000
    eadric said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?

    Lovely day here for a change
    Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc

    Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency

    I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
    Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
    ‘n’

    Lol
    Piqued Seant trying to get a dig in on another post was always one of my favourites.

    Failure of imagination it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Chris said:

    Guidance please from resident legal eagles.

    Would knocking on my neighbour's door to ask him to stop playing deafening music morning, noon and night fall within the law?

    Depends what you do after he opens it.

    I feel your pain though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data




    So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
    There is speculation that China’s real death toll is nearer 300,000 than 3.000
    Still so far short of your own calculation for the UK, then.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Chris said:

    Guidance please from resident legal eagles.

    Would knocking on my neighbour's door to ask him to stop playing deafening music morning, noon and night fall within the law?

    You’d have to knock very hard to qualify that excursion as your daily exercise.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data




    So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
    I don't think you can project that from the graphs. For most countries, the slope is reducing. i.e. the exponential growth is slowing down. Some notable exceptions.
    https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-nobel-laureate-Coronavirus-spread-is-slowing-621145
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are?
    https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Dr Foxy,

    If you're still around, thanks for the Chen at al paper. An interesting read.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Latest data




    So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
    I don't think you can project that from the graphs. For most countries, the slope is reducing. i.e. the exponential growth is slowing down. Some notable exceptions.
    But if you assume anything like a bell shaped curve then their total deaths will exceed China's declared deaths. Whilst the period of exponential or explosive growth seems to end quite quickly once controls are imposed (allowing for lags of course) there is then a quite extensive period of a few weeks before the numbers fall off materially.

    Deaths are also a seriously lagging indicator since many seem to succumb well after the median of 10 days after getting symptoms. And China is reporting 3 deaths today. I frankly don't believe it.
This discussion has been closed.