To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
That doesn’t make any sense. Surely once you’ve got the virus you’ve got the virus, it doesn’t care what language you speak?
I can believe that tactile Latin culture makes you more liable to catch the bug, but varying lethality, no
Perhaps it depends on how much you get at the start?
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
I don't think you can project that from the graphs. For most countries, the slope is reducing. i.e. the exponential growth is slowing down. Some notable exceptions.
But if you assume anything like a bell shaped curve then their total deaths will exceed China's declared deaths. Whilst the period of exponential or explosive growth seems to end quite quickly once controls are imposed (allowing for lags of course) there is then a quite extensive period of a few weeks before the numbers fall off materially.
Deaths are also a seriously lagging indicator since many seem to succumb well after the median of 10 days after getting symptoms. And China is reporting 3 deaths today. I frankly don't believe it.
I have no idea about the veracity of the figures from China.
All I'm doing is publishing the figures by country from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus on a log scale so you can see how or whether the exponential growth is slowing down.
Ireland has 22 reported deaths as of today. No way is it going to exceed the 3,300 reported deaths in China!
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
That doesn’t make any sense. Surely once you’ve got the virus you’ve got the virus, it doesn’t care what language you speak?
I can believe that tactile Latin culture makes you more liable to catch the bug, but varying lethality, no
That's pretty much it. The Italians, the Spanish, etc are far more tactile, they are also much more likely to mix socially than we do and, crucially, they are still much more wedded to the extended family, meaning there is a lot more regular contact between the young and the old. They are also a lot more likely to live in flats, rather than houses, from what I have read.
I have no idea about the veracity of the figures from China.
All I'm doing is publishing the figures by country from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus on a log scale so you can see how or whether the exponential growth is slowing down.
Ireland has 22 reported deaths as of today. No way is it going to exceed the 3,300 reported deaths in China!
I have no idea about the veracity of the figures from China.
All I'm doing is publishing the figures by country from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus on a log scale so you can see how or whether the exponential growth is slowing down.
Ireland has 22 reported deaths as of today. No way is it going to exceed the 3,300 reported deaths in China!
Show your working.
I don't have any working but I'll gladly take bets on it!
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He's just taking a page out of Wings' book.
Wings has gone a bit nuts lately, but nevertheless I don't think he's ever suggested that people outside a country aren't allowed to express an opinion on that country. That would make him a big fat hypocrite, wouldn't it?
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
That doesn’t make any sense. Surely once you’ve got the virus you’ve got the virus, it doesn’t care what language you speak?
I can believe that tactile Latin culture makes you more liable to catch the bug, but varying lethality, no
That's pretty much it. The Italians, the Spanish, etc are far more tactile, they are also much more likely to mix socially than we do and, crucially, they are still much more wedded to the extended family, meaning there is a lot more regular contact between the young and the old. They are also a lot more likely to live in flats, rather than houses, from what I have read.
The average Italian touches ten people each day, compared to the average Brit’s five. Someone linked to the research last week.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
If you're still around, thanks for the Chen at al paper. An interesting read.
Yes. I wonder if it all ties in via IL-6, generated via adipose tissue, and stimulating a cytokine storm, but speculation on my part. I don't understand the inflammatory pathology well enough.
Been out for my daily exercise/hunter-gatherer routine. Finally got some Paracetamol - the corner shops I am using seem well stocked of most things now (the queue to get in to our local Lidl is extremely long and while there may be social distancing at work in the store there is none in the queue !!)
Traffic in the Barking Road well down on a normal Saturday - I even managed to cross twice without having to use the pedestrian crossing. I'd say about a third of normal and the streets very quiet except up near the High Street (which I'm avoiding currently).
Much colder, cloudier and windier than last weekend in East London and that may be helping to keep people indoors. There were people in our local park but all keeping good social distance on foot or on bicycles.
The good news is my local Chinese remains open for delivery so the end of civilisation not quite on the horizon.
It seems strange having no horse racing to watch on a Saturday - one of my colleagues asked if horse racing could apply social distancing. I said most of my selections always kept several yards behind the other runners so yes.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
This was a fun snapshot of the British class system from the briefings yesterday:
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus. So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
Multiple such pandemics would soon change societal norms. But they'd have to be regular or a lot more deadly I suspect.
"For the rest of us, the change has been startling. You realize that we’re remarkably adaptable. You learn to cut hair. You tell people you love them, or risk forever holding your peace. You relish quarantinis at Zoom happy hours. You keep telling yourself that every tickle of the throat is not … it."
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
So I don't think so either.
Is it still "the egg heads" (in the plural)? I thought one of the eggs had been cracked by the virus.
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
That doesn’t make any sense. Surely once you’ve got the virus you’ve got the virus, it doesn’t care what language you speak?
I can believe that tactile Latin culture makes you more liable to catch the bug, but varying lethality, no
That's pretty much it. The Italians, the Spanish, etc are far more tactile, they are also much more likely to mix socially than we do and, crucially, they are still much more wedded to the extended family, meaning there is a lot more regular contact between the young and the old. They are also a lot more likely to live in flats, rather than houses, from what I have read.
In Northern Italy, in these really badly effected towns, it was reported huge numbers of the young commute to Milan, but still live at home or in the same street as their family and of course spend a lot of time with them.
So obviously they go into the big smoke, socialize with other youngsters, spread it and then come back and hang out with Nonna etc at the weekend.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
So I don't think so either.
Is it still "the egg heads" (in the plural)? I thought one of the eggs had been cracked by the virus.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
So I don't think so either.
Is it still "the egg heads" (in the plural)? I thought one of the eggs had been cracked by the virus.
More than one. Chief modeller Ferguson has had it, Witty now has. I am presuming it is going through the team in the way it is the cabinet.
The Government may be able to track mobile phone data to control the pandemic. The Information Commissioner’s latest guidance says public bodies - “may require additional collection and sharing of personal data to protect against serious threats to public health. Data protection law allows that to happen in the public interest and also provides the safeguards for personal data that people would expect.” - https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/data-protection-and-coronavirus/
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Depends how deep a recession we get out of this. If deaths seem low to people but economic cost seems low versus expectations then the view that the measures prevented a much worse situation will win out. If deaths are higher than anticipated with great economic costs to boot then he'll be pilloried for not acting soon enough. If deaths seem low compared to expectation at great economic cost it'll be more balanced but he'll face plenty of criticism for going with the international flow of harsh measures (probably from the same people who criticised him for not going with the flow soon enough).
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He's just taking a page out of Wings' book.
Wings has gone a bit nuts lately, but nevertheless I don't think he's ever suggested that people outside a country aren't allowed to express an opinion on that country. That would make him a big fat hypocrite, wouldn't it?
Mind you, the reaction of some scots to the point that (a) tartan is largely bullshit and (b) painting your face blue was invented for a film made by a racist Australian.
This was a fun snapshot of the British class system from the briefings yesterday:
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus. So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).
I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.
Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck
Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?
Maybe because many americans seem to be idiots?
There is a definite feedback loop between the polarisation of society. The more the top tier pull away, the more the bottom tiers despise and rejects their expertise, the more the top tier patronises them etc. Trump is a dreadful symptom within that polarisation but not the ultimate cause.
But without check the polarisation could lead to a vicious, country-destroying, spiral.
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
So I don't think so either.
Is it still "the egg heads" (in the plural)? I thought one of the eggs had been cracked by the virus.
More than one. Chief modeller Ferguson has had it, Witty now has. I am presuming it is going through the team in the way it is the cabinet.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Depends how deep a recession we get out of this. If deaths seem low to people but economic cost seems low versus expectations then the view that the measures prevented a much worse situation will win out. If deaths are higher than anticipated with great economic costs to boot then he'll be pilloried for not acting soon enough. If deaths seem low compared to expectation at great economic cost it'll be more balanced but he'll face plenty of criticism for going with the international flow of harsh measures (probably from the same people who criticised him for not going with the flow soon enough).
If we avoid Italy and Spain, at practically any economic cost, then I think this will be generally regarded as a success.
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
Think all of my circle are obeying. Loads of us had virtual drinks last night and more planned.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Depends how deep a recession we get out of this. If deaths seem low to people but economic cost seems low versus expectations then the view that the measures prevented a much worse situation will win out. If deaths are higher than anticipated with great economic costs to boot then he'll be pilloried for not acting soon enough. If deaths seem low compared to expectation at great economic cost it'll be more balanced but he'll face plenty of criticism for going with the international flow of harsh measures (probably from the same people who criticised him for not going with the flow soon enough).
If we avoid Italy and Spain,* at practically any economic cost, then I think this will be generally regarded as a success.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
So I don't think so either.
Is it still "the egg heads" (in the plural)? I thought one of the eggs had been cracked by the virus.
Is it the grown up Stewie Griffin one? Presumably baby Stewie and Brian will be along in their time machine to save the day.
I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
So if it was just a few hundred blocks where infected people were living, rather than "significant" numbers, that makes it okay?
Or if it was a local mayor's policy, rather than the central government's?
China only achieved what they have (if you believe their numbers in the first place, which I doubt), by pivoting from ignoring the problem to having the army on the streets unafraid to shoot people for leaving their houses, within a couple of days.
Actions that are not compatible with anything approaching a democratic nation. Quarantines and curfews are one thing, the actions of the Chinese quite another.
If I say there's no murder in the UK, that's obviously untrue, but clearly murder is neither widespread nor policy, as implied here for China because of its political or societal characteristics. So I am excluding possible sporadic acts of desperation that could happen anywhere, but just China. My reasons for doubting Chinese exceptionalism on murdering its citizens in this way:
- China is a police state, but one that is highly attuned to the opinions of its citizens. There's no reason to think that those citizens would be any less horrified by murder of this kind than we would be. - The video comes from the Falun Gong, a sect brutally suppressed by the Chinese government that pushes out fake news about China and it's government. The source of this video is massively suspect. - China has a widespread bush telegraph, which can be critical of the government in places. As far as I know welding people into their houses isn't showing up on it. - (The big reason) There's absolutely no reason to weld the doors when you can place a guard to check and stop comings and goings. Which is what everyone is doing anyway.
There is no slow down in new cases indeed. But importantly the number of new cases is constant (i.e., not going up). That is not good news for overcrowded hospitals but does at least hint that Spain is slowing the rate somewhat.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Depends how deep a recession we get out of this. If deaths seem low to people but economic cost seems low versus expectations then the view that the measures prevented a much worse situation will win out. If deaths are higher than anticipated with great economic costs to boot then he'll be pilloried for not acting soon enough. If deaths seem low compared to expectation at great economic cost it'll be more balanced but he'll face plenty of criticism for going with the international flow of harsh measures (probably from the same people who criticised him for not going with the flow soon enough).
If we avoid Italy and Spain,* at practically any economic cost, then I think this will be generally regarded as a success.
(*And the US)
Given the way the healthcare system works in the US and the piss poor crazed leadership, nobody is going to be shocked now if they top the charts.
There was the story the other day about an MP who was offered 1,000s of ventilators and why didn't the government take up the offer. It sounds like it is the total wild west and lots and lots of total scumbag agents promising all sort of dodgy stuff...we know Spain got caught buying 300,000 Chinese tests that were worse than useless and Italy with a delivery of kit from Russia in which 80% was totally unusable
Clearly the UK think their 3 strand approach is the safest option, but not without risks if Dyson or the other consortium making copies of an existing British model can't produce at the promised rate.
The one from Norfolk? That absolutely stank. I can well understand why the government steered well clear
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Going by top egg heads say 2 weeks to peak in London, and the rest of the country is weeks behind them. And "peak infection" isn't peak death. We know often takes weeks before people die.
So I don't think so either.
Is it still "the egg heads" (in the plural)? I thought one of the eggs had been cracked by the virus.
He's still alive.
Careful, that post was clearly not necessary to get across an important point, stodge will be on your arse.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Depends how deep a recession we get out of this. If deaths seem low to people but economic cost seems low versus expectations then the view that the measures prevented a much worse situation will win out. If deaths are higher than anticipated with great economic costs to boot then he'll be pilloried for not acting soon enough. If deaths seem low compared to expectation at great economic cost it'll be more balanced but he'll face plenty of criticism for going with the international flow of harsh measures (probably from the same people who criticised him for not going with the flow soon enough).
I fear the picture is going to be confused by a lot of consequentials. For example significant numbers of people in this country suffer from depression and loneliness. How many more of them are going to die as a result of the lockdown? How many more conventional treatments, particularly palliative treatments, will not take place? We are social animals and this is tough.
Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?
Lovely day here for a change
Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc
Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency
I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts
Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is
And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
He's just taking a page out of Wings' book.
Wings has gone a bit nuts lately, but nevertheless I don't think he's ever suggested that people outside a country aren't allowed to express an opinion on that country. That would make him a big fat hypocrite, wouldn't it?
Mind you, the reaction of some scots to the point that (a) tartan is largely bullshit and (b) painting your face blue was invented for a film made by a racist Australian.
Depends on which Scots. In my experience we tend to get pished off when some fcuker start roaring 'Freeeedom' as a substitute for an opinion on Scottish indy, or when an organ illustrates a Scotch piece with a face painted cateran.
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
Good post. How ironic it would be if Johnson were ultimately usurped by the stooge he brought in to stymie Javid.
There was the story the other day about an MP who was offered 1,000s of ventilators and why didn't the government take up the offer. It sounds like it is the total wild west and lots and lots of total scumbag agents promising all sort of dodgy stuff...we know Spain got caught buying 300,000 Chinese tests that were worse than useless and Italy with a delivery of kit from Russia in which 80% was totally unusable
Clearly the UK think their 3 strand approach is the safest option, but not without risks if Dyson or the other consortium making copies of an existing British model can't produce at the promised rate.
The one from Norfolk? That absolutely stank. I can well understand why the government steered well clear
What's your take on why the UK government have decided to not proceed with the scrapheap challenge models from G-Tech and Oxford? Just too risky?
Seems an odd decision to me. Given they are cheap, they say they can make 1000s a week of them, even if you use them until you get the real deal ones, surely it is better than nothing.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
And as we are running about 5000 below the average yearly death rate before this started, this could be just average.
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Depends how deep a recession we get out of this. If deaths seem low to people but economic cost seems low versus expectations then the view that the measures prevented a much worse situation will win out. If deaths are higher than anticipated with great economic costs to boot then he'll be pilloried for not acting soon enough. If deaths seem low compared to expectation at great economic cost it'll be more balanced but he'll face plenty of criticism for going with the international flow of harsh measures (probably from the same people who criticised him for not going with the flow soon enough).
Don't count your money while sitting at the table, there is time enough for counting, when the dealing's done.
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.
It would be incredible, and like you I think it is optimistic
So the question is: how many REALLY died in China
I have absolutely no doubt the Chinese figures are wrong. However, the Chinese people are able to comment on what is going on online in a variety of ways that circumvent the system (as we saw in December and January) and there isn’t any hint of the level of fatalities, 300,000, you posted earlier. Many law and other firms (mine included) have offices in Mainland China and they are unanimous that things have improved dramatically.
The Spanish health minister has just said (I think!) that the country is reaching the peak and that some areas might already have passed it - good news if indeed true! ( @nichomar@felix did I understand his news conference correctly??)
I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
Huge mystery.
Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.
As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.
Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.
I seriously doubt there was significant welding of people into their apartment blocks and leaving them to die, and certainly not as policy.
So if it was just a few hundred blocks where infected people were living, rather than "significant" numbers, that makes it okay?
Or if it was a local mayor's policy, rather than the central government's?
China only achieved what they have (if you believe their numbers in the first place, which I doubt), by pivoting from ignoring the problem to having the army on the streets unafraid to shoot people for leaving their houses, within a couple of days.
Actions that are not compatible with anything approaching a democratic nation. Quarantines and curfews are one thing, the actions of the Chinese quite another.
And there is an epistemological point here. Even if the commenter were a highly respected sinologist who had lived in Wuhan for 40 years, "seriously doubt" and "certainly" would be massively overconfident statements about what this particular government would do in this particular crisis. Let's accept that there are unknowns out there.
I have lived in apartment blocks like the one in the video, but not for 40 years. None of us know absolutely. However the assertion by Sandpit and others that many people are being welded into their homes to die is presented without any doubt or qualification. Yet there is little basis for that assertion.
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
Perhaps. Personally, I think that if Boris is seen to have led the country through this crisis with an acceptable level of damage, then he will as untouchable as Thatcher was after the Falklands, both inside the party and nationally. Sunak is definitely one to watch for the future, though - perhaps this experience will forge the two into a kind of Cameron-Osborne duumvirate that would serve the interests of them both.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
Think all of my circle are obeying. Loads of us had virtual drinks last night and more planned.
Please tell me that its the social element and not the drinks element that's virtual. The latter would be too much to bear.
South African police enforcing a coronavirus lockdown fired rubber bullets towards hundreds of shoppers queueing outside a supermarket in Johannesburg, according to eye witnesses.
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.
It would be incredible, and like you I think it is optimistic
So the question is: how many REALLY died in China
I have absolutely no doubt the Chinese figures are wrong. However, the Chinese people are able to comment on what is going on online in a variety of ways that circumvent the system (as we saw in December and January) and there isn’t any hint of the level of fatalities, 300,000, you posted earlier. Many law and other firms (mine included) have offices in Mainland China and they are unanimous that things have improved dramatically.
So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
I don't think you can project that from the graphs. For most countries, the slope is reducing. i.e. the exponential growth is slowing down. Some notable exceptions.
But if you assume anything like a bell shaped curve then their total deaths will exceed China's declared deaths. Whilst the period of exponential or explosive growth seems to end quite quickly once controls are imposed (allowing for lags of course) there is then a quite extensive period of a few weeks before the numbers fall off materially.
Deaths are also a seriously lagging indicator since many seem to succumb well after the median of 10 days after getting symptoms. And China is reporting 3 deaths today. I frankly don't believe it.
I have no idea about the veracity of the figures from China.
All I'm doing is publishing the figures by country from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus on a log scale so you can see how or whether the exponential growth is slowing down.
Ireland has 22 reported deaths as of today. No way is it going to exceed the 3,300 reported deaths in China!
So the likelihood is that pretty much every country down to tiny Ireland is going to end this with more dead than China? Right...
I don't think you can project that from the graphs. For most countries, the slope is reducing. i.e. the exponential growth is slowing down. Some notable exceptions.
But if you assume anything like a bell shaped curve then their total deaths will exceed China's declared deaths. Whilst the period of exponential or explosive growth seems to end quite quickly once controls are imposed (allowing for lags of course) there is then a quite extensive period of a few weeks before the numbers fall off materially.
Deaths are also a seriously lagging indicator since many seem to succumb well after the median of 10 days after getting symptoms. And China is reporting 3 deaths today. I frankly don't believe it.
I have no idea about the veracity of the figures from China.
All I'm doing is publishing the figures by country from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus on a log scale so you can see how or whether the exponential growth is slowing down.
Ireland has 22 reported deaths as of today. No way is it going to exceed the 3,300 reported deaths in China!
If 50% of Ireland is eventually infected, and ~1% of the infected die, that would be 24,000 deaths in Ireland
The equivalent in the UK would be 350,000 deaths. Deja vu.
The lockdown in Ireland is tougher than the UK. You cannot travel more than 2km from your home.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
Think all of my circle are obeying. Loads of us had virtual drinks last night and more planned.
Please tell me that its the social element and not the drinks element that's virtual. The latter would be too much to bear.
Virtual in the sense we all dialled in to FaceTime/house party/ zoom ( I forget which!) and all had a Friday night chat and drinks over the multi video link thingy.
Got one to America tomorrow. We’re doing evening dinner while they do brunch.
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
There may have been some good points in this post. I’ll never know because I stopped reading after the first paragraph
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
Your point may be more effective if you don't precede it with a charmless, self important and arrogant introduction. Lighten up, and not for the first time perhaps don't judge people for not choosing to be as efficient in their density of useful information per post as your good self. Different strokes for different folks. People are quite capable of judging for themselves if quality maches quantity.
Stodge is normally very polite. He usually starts with a "Good morning" or "Good Afternoon".
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.
It would be incredible, and like you I think it is optimistic
So the question is: how many REALLY died in China
We will almost certainly never know but if it was less than 100 times the official figure I would be surprised.
I don’t think you could cover up 300,000 dead. There would be more videos of mass graves, more images of endless bodies.
Looking at all those urns I reckon maybe five or ten times the official figure? Pure intuition but let’s go for it.
= 15,000 or 30,000
Extrapolate on to Britain = 30,000-60,000. Not far off Ferguson’s estimate of 20,000
At the moment China is claiming to have suffered 2 deaths per million of population. Spain is already at 122 and just nearing the peak of the curve for infections. They are not going to end with less than 200. They are at least 20 days behind China, probably more as Jan 10 is the date the virus was first detected, not when it started to spread.
So if China's actual death rate matched Spain's they would have deaths 100x what they have reported. They may have done better, they may have locked down faster, they certainly threw incredible resources at Wuhan in terms of new hospitals and an incredible number of doctors. But we are still looking at a very big multiple.
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
That doesn’t make any sense. Surely once you’ve got the virus you’ve got the virus, it doesn’t care what language you speak?
I can believe that tactile Latin culture makes you more liable to catch the bug, but varying lethality, no
Maybe partly explained by more old people catching it in Italian and French speaking parts. Also a lot more connection between Ticino and Lombardy than German speaking Switzerland and Lombardy, so likely the epidemic has been widespread for longer there. So mortality rates are likely to end up more similar than they are now.
To put a handle on this, the egg-heads have said they think between 50-66% of those who will die would have died this year anyway. That isn't to take anyway from the tragedy of it all, but it gives some perspective of with / of.
That supposes 2021's death rate will be only 33-50% of usual then?
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
Think all of my circle are obeying. Loads of us had virtual drinks last night and more planned.
Please tell me that its the social element and not the drinks element that's virtual. The latter would be too much to bear.
Virtual in the sense we all dialled in to FaceTime/house party/ zoom ( I forget which!) and all had a Friday night chat and drinks over the multi video link thingy.
Got one to America tomorrow. We’re doing evening dinner while they do brunch.
The lockdown in Ireland is tougher than the UK. You cannot travel more than 2km from your home.
That'd make grocery shopping tricky for us. The nearest supermarket is 3.5 miles away.
It 2km for non-essential i.e. exercise. You can go further to get your groceries and medicines. In lots of parts of Ireland, it is far more remote / rural than in England, and just wouldn't be feasible to say total 2km lockdown.
They are just trying to stop the crap like here where people go on a 10hr day trip to the peak district and claim it is their daily walk.
Perhaps. Personally, I think that if Boris is seen to have led the country through this crisis with an acceptable level of damage, then he will as untouchable as Thatcher was after the Falklands, both inside the party and nationally. Sunak is definitely one to watch for the future, though - perhaps this experience will forge the two into a kind of Cameron-Osborne duumvirate that would serve the interests of them both.
This isn't the Falklands, nor is it foot-and-mouth? The "victory" will be everyone's not just the Prime Minister's or the Government and there will or should be little sense of triumphalism. People have died, families will be grieving and sensitivity will be the watch word as restrictions are eased and life returns to whatever the "new" normal will be.
I don't know the limits of Sunak's ambition but he's a politician so I expect he has some. He's no mere technocrat like Lawson and let's not forget the Major-Lamont relationship soured quickly in office (as did the Blair-Brown and I suspect the Cameron-Osborne).
There will be a reckoning in terms of the largesse - if the system of helping people creaks or the money doesn't get where it needs Sunak will be in the firing line and he could be Johnson's Human Shield for greater love hath no man than he should lay down his friends to save his life (as someone once said).
This is Sunak's risk - the promise of help has to become a reality of support. He has made a huge hostage to fortune and if he fails to deliver Johnson has a clear someone to blame and if it becomes convenient to drop Sunak I doubt Johnson will be unaware of the political benefit.
Thatcher ended up making too enemies and the friends she did have at the end weren't of enough calibre to protect her - Johnson might end up making the same mistake (he did it with Gove of course).
"A Berkshire coroner said the death was related to Covid-19 after being told Middleton had a cough, the source said. But this surprised medics at the hospital, who have not recorded it as a coronavirus incident."
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrow
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish them people read them C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.
The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.
Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly. I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.
The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.
The Dutch are really missing us playing the baddie aren't they>
I think they are missing the point completely: telling countries that have had a decade of extreme austerity and which are now coping with a human catastrophe that essentially it is all their fault and they are on their own is quite something. In the case of Spain and Portugal, at least, it also ignores just how much has been done to bring their economies back to an even keel.
I don't disagree, its just in times past they would have had us say it and quietly agreed behind the scenes whilst we took all the flak. What their response shows is that EU solidarity is just words on a page.
Yep, that is the danger. There was polling in Spain earlier this week showing a significant fall in confidence in the EU as an institution. I am not surprised.
And completely unnecessary. This is a real opportunity for the EU to shine.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
Think all of my circle are obeying. Loads of us had virtual drinks last night and more planned.
Please tell me that its the social element and not the drinks element that's virtual. The latter would be too much to bear.
Virtual in the sense we all dialled in to FaceTime/house party/ zoom ( I forget which!) and all had a Friday night chat and drinks over the multi video link thingy.
Got one to America tomorrow. We’re doing evening dinner while they do brunch.
Don’t know why we’ve never thought if it before.
'Cos it's too naff for words?
Forget naff - you actually get to drink that nice wine you brought.....
Time for some elementary politics for those on here who, despite posting thirty or forty thousands items of drivel, still seem to struggle to comprehend the basics.
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
There may have been some good points in this post. I’ll never know because I stopped reading after the first paragraph
A post of 8 paras is a tome not a post. Sorry to be pedantic.
"Middleton was taken to Wexham Park hospital in Slough last Thursday after having a heart attack. Attempts to resuscitate her failed and she was pronounced dead soon after arriving, a source said."
”But the source said the coroner’s move “raised eyebrows” at the hospital because she had not tested positive for the disease.
The Spanish health minister has just said (I think!) that the country is reaching the peak and that some areas might already have passed it - good news if indeed true! ( @nichomar@felix did I understand his news conference correctly??)
Fernando Simón: "According to various indicators, the disease is stabilizing. Although they are preliminary data, in some areas of the country the peak could have been exceeded, although at the national level we cannot confirm anything" https://www.rtve.es/n / 2008165 More t follow
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.
It would be incredible, and like you I think it is optimistic
So the question is: how many REALLY died in China
I have absolutely no doubt the Chinese figures are wrong. However, the Chinese people are able to comment on what is going on online in a variety of ways that circumvent the system (as we saw in December and January) and there isn’t any hint of the level of fatalities, 300,000, you posted earlier. Many law and other firms (mine included) have offices in Mainland China and they are unanimous that things have improved dramatically.
I don't dispute things have improved (although there was a big increase in cases in HK today). If you factor in that maybe 80% of the deaths were amongst the elderly and economically inactive with serious existing conditions would it be so obvious to those trading there? 300K out of 1.3bn is about 0.02% if I have got all my zeroes are all in the right place.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
Think all of my circle are obeying. Loads of us had virtual drinks last night and more planned.
Please tell me that its the social element and not the drinks element that's virtual. The latter would be too much to bear.
Virtual in the sense we all dialled in to FaceTime/house party/ zoom ( I forget which!) and all had a Friday night chat and drinks over the multi video link thingy.
Got one to America tomorrow. We’re doing evening dinner while they do brunch.
Don’t know why we’ve never thought if it before.
'Cos it's too naff for words?
Well if you like. And no it’s not as good as reality, but right now we don’t have that choice.
I don’t mind bathing in a bit of naffness, if it’s harmless and it all helps us through. If the fashion police don’t like it, tough.
The Spanish health minister has just said (I think!) that the country is reaching the peak and that some areas might already have passed it - good news if indeed true! ( @nichomar@felix did I understand his news conference correctly??)
Fernando Simón: "According to various indicators, the disease is stabilizing. Although they are preliminary data, in some areas of the country the peak could have been exceeded, although at the national level we cannot confirm anything" https://www.rtve.es/n / 2008165 More t follow
Simón: "The Health System as a whole is making a huge effort. We are arriving, we do not know exactly when, but we are reaching the peak of the contagion curve (...) we continue to have a major problem with the saturation of ICUs."
That would be an incredible result but I fear that if the model is largely based on China's "actual" results it may prove to be optimistic.
It would be incredible, and like you I think it is optimistic
So the question is: how many REALLY died in China
I have absolutely no doubt the Chinese figures are wrong. However, the Chinese people are able to comment on what is going on online in a variety of ways that circumvent the system (as we saw in December and January) and there isn’t any hint of the level of fatalities, 300,000, you posted earlier. Many law and other firms (mine included) have offices in Mainland China and they are unanimous that things have improved dramatically.
I don't dispute things have improved (although there was a big increase in cases in HK today). If you factor in that maybe 80% of the deaths were amongst the elderly and economically inactive with serious existing conditions would it be so obvious to those trading there? 300K out of 1.3bn is about 0.02% if I have got all my zeroes are all in the right place.
But it’s almost all in one place, so the 1.3bn is really irrelevant.
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
I can hear my other neighbours have got guests round again - not for the first time since the "lockdown" - and so I too struggle to believe this will work.
I'd call the police on them, on the local line not the emergency one though. I do sympathise though, we used to have horrendous neighbours; it's hell in a situation like this to have shitty neighbours
The Spanish health minister has just said (I think!) that the country is reaching the peak and that some areas might already have passed it - good news if indeed true! ( @nichomar@felix did I understand his news conference correctly??)
Fernando Simón: "According to various indicators, the disease is stabilizing. Although they are preliminary data, in some areas of the country the peak could have been exceeded, although at the national level we cannot confirm anything" https://www.rtve.es/n / 2008165 More t follow
Simón: "The Health System as a whole is making a huge effort. We are arriving, we do not know exactly when, but we are reaching the peak of the contagion curve (...) we continue to have a major problem with the saturation of ICUs."
Simón: "Lethality in Spain is not one of the lowest, which may indicate that an effort is being made to report all cases and be as transparent as possible with the information."
Dear Dr Foxy, are the garments supposed to be more protective when they are well worn in? Asking for a friend.
I would certainly recommend washing them first...
Slightly disappointing, according to my friend. He prefers them a little more 'spicy'.
Add some turmeric?
Seriously though, is just a scarf or thong better than nothing. Technically common and garden face masks offered no protection anyway? So all we are doing is making a show so those around us feel a bit easier we are not breathing or worse on them?
So a scarf? A snood? Thong.
Seriously. For those of us without a cheaply mask from Amazon like you are wearing (eadric, Eagles GF) putting our pants on our head is technically just the same if we don’t want to be seen letting the side down?
This is really interesting and indicates that the social landscape is a very important factor in how damaging the virus ends up being. How do you stop Italians and the Spanish from being what they are? https://twitter.com/TrevorSutcliffe/status/1243612624790515712
That doesn’t make any sense. Surely once you’ve got the virus you’ve got the virus, it doesn’t care what language you speak?
I can believe that tactile Latin culture makes you more liable to catch the bug, but varying lethality, no
That's pretty much it. The Italians, the Spanish, etc are far more tactile, they are also much more likely to mix socially than we do and, crucially, they are still much more wedded to the extended family, meaning there is a lot more regular contact between the young and the old. They are also a lot more likely to live in flats, rather than houses, from what I have read.
Yup - in the cities and small towns for sure. Even the Garrucha sea port near us is jam packed with blocks of flats very close together. And each evening the paseo is normally thronged with locals - whole families. Even away from the summer months.
"A Berkshire coroner said the death was related to Covid-19 after being told Middleton had a cough, the source said. But this surprised medics at the hospital, who have not recorded it as a coronavirus incident."
There is quite a distinction between dying "with" and "of" CV.
Comments
Will the public credit Boris for saving so many lives, or blame him for over reacting?
Who believes that?
Happy Birthday m’lud. I loved this anger so much
https://youtu.be/PGhPvVb3dak
Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
All I'm doing is publishing the figures by country from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus on a log scale so you can see how or whether the exponential growth is slowing down.
Ireland has 22 reported deaths as of today. No way is it going to exceed the 3,300 reported deaths in China!
However, I look at the green line on this and struggle to believe the UK deaths peak will be less than a week away. Unscientific on my part, I know. I hope I am wrong.
Been out for my daily exercise/hunter-gatherer routine. Finally got some Paracetamol - the corner shops I am using seem well stocked of most things now (the queue to get in to our local Lidl is extremely long and while there may be social distancing at work in the store there is none in the queue !!)
Traffic in the Barking Road well down on a normal Saturday - I even managed to cross twice without having to use the pedestrian crossing. I'd say about a third of normal and the streets very quiet except up near the High Street (which I'm avoiding currently).
Much colder, cloudier and windier than last weekend in East London and that may be helping to keep people indoors. There were people in our local park but all keeping good social distance on foot or on bicycles.
The good news is my local Chinese remains open for delivery so the end of civilisation not quite on the horizon.
It seems strange having no horse racing to watch on a Saturday - one of my colleagues asked if horse racing could apply social distancing. I said most of my selections always kept several yards behind the other runners so yes.
Do we know whether @TSE 's girlfriend has donated her outfit, as she should have?
So I don't think so either.
Boris Johnson, PM (Oxford Union president 1986, Balliol) has coronavirus.
So Michael Gove, his effective deputy (Oxford Union president 1988, LMH) takes press conference with
Simon Stevens, NHS head (Oxford Union president 1987, Balliol).
"For the rest of us, the change has been startling. You realize that we’re remarkably adaptable. You learn to cut hair. You tell people you love them, or risk forever holding your peace. You relish quarantinis at Zoom happy hours. You keep telling yourself that every tickle of the throat is not … it."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/coronavirus-seattle.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Glad to see @Foxy has replied!
So obviously they go into the big smoke, socialize with other youngsters, spread it and then come back and hang out with Nonna etc at the weekend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9e8oNhuR17Q
All leaders do well at times of crisis - if we had a Labour Government and Prime Minister they would be polling well with high approval ratings. Trump and Merkel are doing well - I suspect Varadkar is doing well.
At times of crisis, people rally round whether out of fear, self preservation, patriotism or a genuine belief the Government is trying to do the right thing by them and their family.
At times of crisis, the Government and Prime Minister get hours of coverage and opposition is generally silenced. There will (I hope) be a full and rigorous enquiry when all this is over to ask who knew what and the bases on which decisions were taken or not taken.
In a democracy, it is right for a Government to be held to account and subject to scrutiny and while that should not impede the immediate handling of the crisis, it should once life returns to normal. What lessons can and should be learned in case something like this happens again?
It's not the big things that entrap Governments - it's the little things becoming big things. The day-to-day normality of Government is far more treacherous than times of trial.
The Conservatives may be at 54% now - one day they will be at 24%. Just last year, they polled 9% in a national election. It's almost Newtonian to suggest the higher one flies the further one falls. One day the current Conservatives will be forced to re-learn this lesson as they have before.
For now, I'd simply suggest Johnson has been weakened by the rise of Sunak - there is now a credible popular alternative where there (arguably) was none before. If Johnson starts looking vulnerable, Sunak could no doubt be persuaded in the interests of the Party to step forward. Johnson isn't the first PM to worry about his next door neighbour and he won't be the last.
- China is a police state, but one that is highly attuned to the opinions of its citizens. There's no reason to think that those citizens would be any less horrified by murder of this kind than we would be.
- The video comes from the Falun Gong, a sect brutally suppressed by the Chinese government that pushes out fake news about China and it's government. The source of this video is massively suspect.
- China has a widespread bush telegraph, which can be critical of the government in places. As far as I know welding people into their houses isn't showing up on it.
- (The big reason) There's absolutely no reason to weld the doors when you can place a guard to check and stop comings and goings. Which is what everyone is doing anyway.
Seems an odd decision to me. Given they are cheap, they say they can make 1000s a week of them, even if you use them until you get the real deal ones, surely it is better than nothing.
South African police enforcing a coronavirus lockdown fired rubber bullets towards hundreds of shoppers queueing outside a supermarket in Johannesburg, according to eye witnesses.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162889/Police-South-Africa-fire-RUBBER-BULLETS-hundreds-shoppers.html
The lockdown in Ireland is tougher than the UK. You cannot travel more than 2km from your home.
Got one to America tomorrow. We’re doing evening dinner while they do brunch.
Don’t know why we’ve never thought if it before.
So if China's actual death rate matched Spain's they would have deaths 100x what they have reported. They may have done better, they may have locked down faster, they certainly threw incredible resources at Wuhan in terms of new hospitals and an incredible number of doctors. But we are still looking at a very big multiple.
They are just trying to stop the crap like here where people go on a 10hr day trip to the peak district and claim it is their daily walk.
I don't know the limits of Sunak's ambition but he's a politician so I expect he has some. He's no mere technocrat like Lawson and let's not forget the Major-Lamont relationship soured quickly in office (as did the Blair-Brown and I suspect the Cameron-Osborne).
There will be a reckoning in terms of the largesse - if the system of helping people creaks or the money doesn't get where it needs Sunak will be in the firing line and he could be Johnson's Human Shield for greater love hath no man than he should lay down his friends to save his life (as someone once said).
This is Sunak's risk - the promise of help has to become a reality of support. He has made a huge hostage to fortune and if he fails to deliver Johnson has a clear someone to blame and if it becomes convenient to drop Sunak I doubt Johnson will be unaware of the political benefit.
Thatcher ended up making too enemies and the friends she did have at the end weren't of enough calibre to protect her - Johnson might end up making the same mistake (he did it with Gove of course).
Source says coroner linked death to coronavirus but hospital took different view"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/chloe-middleton-death-21-year-old-not-recorded-nhs-covid-19-related
"A Berkshire coroner said the death was related to Covid-19 after being told Middleton had a cough, the source said. But this surprised medics at the hospital, who have not recorded it as a coronavirus incident."
”But the source said the coroner’s move “raised eyebrows” at the hospital because she had not tested positive for the disease.
More t follow
I don’t mind bathing in a bit of naffness, if it’s harmless and it all helps us through. If the fashion police don’t like it, tough.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR3NwJw4O1cYpHrgEfGgVb4ZqFx7lQTsmWKyqcGXIgq5krxW0HskhPkTCug#e
Although the garage a mile away sells Tunnocks tea cakes. So could survive a few weeks....
https://twitter.com/AndrewStuart/status/1243329253288169473