politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Joe Biden: tough seasoned candidate or bumbling geriatric?
Comments
-
Interesting... something that would definitely justify future investigation...ABZ said:
We know that hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and sleep apnoea all seem to worsen outcomes. Perhaps through obesity, maybe the common factor is insulin resistance?Foxy said:ABZ said:
Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...Foxy said:
I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.ABZ said:That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?
Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19
Perhaps it is just that diabetes is familiar territory for me!0 -
Whilst Covid19 does tend to be more deadly to the elderly it's worth noting that over 90% of over 80s who get it also survive; it's underlying health and the strength of the immune system that's key.
So, even if Trump and Biden did get it, they'd be overwhelmingly likely to survive.0 -
I think Cuomo at 25/1 on Betfair is barking.
So, I've gone back in and laid him.1 -
https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1243607117552115712FrancisUrquhart said:
And the revisionism....those screaming why didn't Britain do anything...well they did, they started planning at the beginning of January, however Imperial egg-head model based on the Chinese data said the risk of a global pandemic was low to none, then it was revised and showed yes its coming but not too bad, and then we got Italy data and it said, oh shit, twice as many people need hospitalization.GideonWise said:
He would be better placed working constructively to help now.FrancisUrquhart said:The NHS could have prevented “chaos and panic” had the system not been left “wholly unprepared for this pandemic”, the editor of a British medical journal has said.
Numerous warnings were issued but these were not heeded, Richard Horton wrote in The Lancet. He cited an example from his journal on 20 January, pointing to a global epidemic:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/chaos-and-panic-lancet-editor-says-nhs-was-left-unprepared-for-covid-19
Errhhh...now when was that tweet he posted saying nothing to see here....
We've had Dunkirk, now it's the Battle of Britain.
I don't blame Neil Ferguson. He only had the very suspicious Chinese data to go on to begin with.
Its all in the minutes that have been released from those meetings. If it hadn't have spread, we would have the same people screaming like they did when the government ordered all that Tamiflu that went to waste. Saying all that money spent could have gone on x instead.-1 -
My niece just whatsapped this to me
Good one.
What makes me laugh is all these ‘clever’ self employed people who’ve lied about their earnings to pay less maintenance for their children..Karma!1 -
I would have thought obesity is the flag of lots of terrible life habits. Poor diet, little to no exercise, and even if you aren't already diagnosed onset of heart disease, diabetes, etc. Even among people who they say don't have an underlying health condition, it might still be that they haven't had it diagnosed i.e. lots of people are borderline diabetic or have narrowing of the arteries (but haven't had the heart attack yet).
So when something comes along that goes for your lungs and then looks for other weaknesses, they are prime people for having issues.0 -
Another truly excellent thread from David Herdson.
I like others am nervous about backing Biden to become the next POTUS. mainly on account of his age and some doubt about about his mental agility to cope with the enormous demands of such a job, especially if one were to fast-forward a few years. Accordingly I don't fancy backing him at the modest odds on offer.
But then again, I certainly don't fancy backing Trump. We are currently at the back end of March and it's truly frightening to consider just how seriously and disastrously wrong the Covid-19 virus epidemic may become in the United States, largely it will be claimed as a result of the President's misguided actions.
Trump has so boxed himself into a corner with his optimistic forecasts, suggesting, for example, that the worst will be over by Easter, that if and when the opposite proves to be the case, there will be enormous pressure on him to step down which will only increase in intensity over the summer months, not least from Rebublicans who will wish to see a GOP candidate with at least some chance of making a good fist of it come the POTUS elections in November. Were he to step aside, it would likely be on the grounds of "ill-health" or suchlike, presumably with Mike Spence stepping in to the breach at least in the interim.
My outside punt therefore is to lay Trump against him being the Republican nominee at odds of 1.11, i.e. approx 1/9 on the Betfair Exchange.
As ever, DYOR0 -
I think Spain may have reached the plateau point now - a fairly constant number of new cases over the past few days and linear rather than exponential growth. If it's like Italy, there will be a few more days of similar numbers and then, hopefully, the start of a decline, especially in the worst affected areas. However, the total number of deaths in Spain could well exceed Italy - it seems just to have run through nursing homes in Madrid at an appalling ratefelix said:
Similar for deaths. The rate of growth is less steep - flattening the curve is not going to be quick. I begin to wonder if the government will survive as the state of the health service buckles.nichomar said:Actualizamos los últimos datos de coronavirus en España. En las últimas 24 horas, se han registrado 832 fallecimientos más. El total de fallecidos es ya de 5.690 y el número de contagios asciende a 72.248, después de registrarse otros 8.189 nuevos casos, según ha confirmado el Ministerio de Sanidad.
11.2% increase in cases
1 -
Once this is over the great political struggle of our times is going to be Johnson vs The Snake.HYUFD said:The Chancellor now more popular than the PM
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1243844673380265986?s=200 -
Virophobic genocide is the obvious aim of a *Tory* Government.Chris said:
"Why can't we all just get along?"DougSeal said:Don’t shoot the messenger- I’m just throwing this out there. Has anyone considered actually sitting down and talking with Covid-19? We may be able to reach a negotiated solution.
0 -
squareroot2 said:
My niece just whatsapped this to me
Good one.
What makes me laugh is all these ‘clever’ self employed people who’ve lied about their earnings to pay less maintenance for their children..Karma!
You are about a week late with that one.0 -
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.nichomar said:HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish themHYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time0 -
I am not a doctor - but my understanding is that obesity can be both a symptom and a cause. In the same patient. So a medical condition can kick off obesity, which in turn causes more problems which make the obesity worse, which makes exercise harder which makes....FrancisUrquhart said:I would have thought obesity is the flag of lots of terrible life habits. Poor diet, little to no exercise, and even if you aren't already diagnosed onset of heart disease, diabetes, etc. Even among people who they say don't have an underlying health condition, it might still be that they haven't had it diagnosed i.e. lots of people are borderline diabetic or have narrowing of the arteries (but haven't had the heart attack yet).
So when something comes along that goes for your lungs and then looks for other weaknesses, they are prime people for having issues.0 -
But what alternatives are there could PP VOX and the other right of centers command a majority? A GONU? Or the more frightening military take over!felix said:
Similar for deaths. The rate of growth is less steep - flattening the curve is not going to be quick. I begin to wonder if the government will survive as the state of the health service buckles.nichomar said:Actualizamos los últimos datos de coronavirus en España. En las últimas 24 horas, se han registrado 832 fallecimientos más. El total de fallecidos es ya de 5.690 y el número de contagios asciende a 72.248, después de registrarse otros 8.189 nuevos casos, según ha confirmado el Ministerio de Sanidad.
11.2% increase in cases0 -
I had a persistent cough and cold through most of January and February. It left me feeling generally crap and I didn’t go near the gym. As a result I gained a stone which I am now anxiously trying to lose. It seems obvious to me that being generally healthy is the best protection we can hope for. We don’t know enough to be sure, there is much about this virus we don’t know, but it’s a sensible precaution that has the psychological benefit of making me feel a little less helpless. So lose weight, don’t drink, improve lung capacity and hope.DavidL said:ABZ said:
Agreed, though I've read elsewhere he had 'underlying health issues'. More generally, it would be curious to know, especially in those who are not elderly, how many fall in the obese group...Foxy said:
I haven't been to work for a few days, but that would be quite significant for the Netherlands, as they are one of the least obese countries in Europe, despite their diet. All that cycling, I think.ABZ said:That link on the previous thread (thanks @DAlexander!) from the Netherlands stating that 80% of patients in the ICU are obese is very interesting. It does suggest that this (plus associated complications) are, perhaps unsurprisingly, major factors. That doesn't bode well for this country and, especially, for the USA... @Foxy do you know if something similar has been seen, anecdotally, here?
Though this transplant surgeon doesn't look obese.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1243830420535459840?s=19
Gardening is a pretty good gym substitute....0 -
The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.felix said:
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.nichomar said:HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish themHYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21 people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
0 -
Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)
This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.
Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics1 -
Dear Dr Foxy, are the garments supposed to be more protective when they are well worn in?Foxy said:Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...
https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19
Asking for a friend.1 -
They are also among the small minority of Americans who have access to what is undoubtedly the world's very best healthcare.Casino_Royale said:Whilst Covid19 does tend to be more deadly to the elderly it's worth noting that over 90% of over 80s who get it also survive; it's underlying health and the strength of the immune system that's key.
So, even if Trump and Biden did get it, they'd be overwhelmingly likely to survive.
0 -
-
Below par for you. Are you self-isolating in a bunker?ydoethur said:
*nobly resists puns about both of them looking for holes*HYUFD said:
Salmond of course was once great mates with Trump and even played golf with himTheuniondivvie said:
It takes some level of dystopian perversity to titillate oneself with the idea of the SNP standing against Trump, but whatever floats your boat.HYUFD said:
I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anydayDavidL said:I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.
Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.1 -
Oh baby.williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
0 -
Yes, I heard from a friend about a taxi driver he knows who was ruefully regretting all the tax-avoiding rides he'd given without the meter ticking. To be fair, my friend says the driver was laughing at himself and saying yeah, it's karma.squareroot2 said:My niece just whatsapped this to me
Good one.
What makes me laugh is all these ‘clever’ self employed people who’ve lied about their earnings to pay less maintenance for their children..Karma!0 -
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
Trump is obese so maybe not.Casino_Royale said:Whilst Covid19 does tend to be more deadly to the elderly it's worth noting that over 90% of over 80s who get it also survive; it's underlying health and the strength of the immune system that's key.
So, even if Trump and Biden did get it, they'd be overwhelmingly likely to survive.0 -
You might think about matching that with the results market, "Will candidate reach majority of pledged delegates". The rules aren't 100% clear if primaries don't happen, but Cuomo couldn't possible win a majority on the first vote.Casino_Royale said:I think Cuomo at 25/1 on Betfair is barking.
So, I've gone back in and laid him.
Plus Biden might not, if primaries are cancelled.0 -
The only way PP/VOX/C's get into power is via a general election. There is an absolute Parliamentary majority against them taking over. In any case, a change of government would not change the fiundamentals, which is that as in Italy there is a social structure in Spain that enables the spread of the virus, while, as is the case almost everywhere, there is a lack of kit to fight it.nichomar said:
But what alternatives are there could PP VOX and the other right of centers command a majority? A GONU? Or the more frightening military take over!felix said:
Similar for deaths. The rate of growth is less steep - flattening the curve is not going to be quick. I begin to wonder if the government will survive as the state of the health service buckles.nichomar said:Actualizamos los últimos datos de coronavirus en España. En las últimas 24 horas, se han registrado 832 fallecimientos más. El total de fallecidos es ya de 5.690 y el número de contagios asciende a 72.248, después de registrarse otros 8.189 nuevos casos, según ha confirmado el Ministerio de Sanidad.
11.2% increase in cases
0 -
There are no viable alternatives - but there have been blunders, all those faulty testing kits for example, the care home scandals, the mass movements to second homes. I think there is a case here for a GONU as even the current coalition lacks a stable majority. However, saying all that my biggest concern is how long the health service can hold out. I've been appalled at the failure of the EU and allies to offer more support first to Italy and now Spain. It is a very bad situation. The one hope is that we're near the peak but it's going to be touch and go.nichomar said:
But what alternatives are there could PP VOX and the other right of centers command a majority? A GONU? Or the more frightening military take over!felix said:
Similar for deaths. The rate of growth is less steep - flattening the curve is not going to be quick. I begin to wonder if the government will survive as the state of the health service buckles.nichomar said:Actualizamos los últimos datos de coronavirus en España. En las últimas 24 horas, se han registrado 832 fallecimientos más. El total de fallecidos es ya de 5.690 y el número de contagios asciende a 72.248, después de registrarse otros 8.189 nuevos casos, según ha confirmado el Ministerio de Sanidad.
11.2% increase in cases0 -
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
1 -
Indeed. Which was my point because it is an opinion apparently not shared by a bewildering number of Americans.HYUFD said:
In your opinionDavidL said:
Nope. The man is a dangerous degenerate.HYUFD said:
I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anydayDavidL said:I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.
Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.0 -
There is a definite feedback loop between the polarisation of society. The more the top tier pull away, the more the bottom tiers despise and rejects their expertise, the more the top tier patronises them etc. Trump is a dreadful symptom within that polarisation but not the ultimate cause.rottenborough said:
Maybe because many americans seem to be idiots?david_herdson said:
Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?HYUFD said:I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.
Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck
But without check the polarisation could lead to a vicious, country-destroying, spiral.
This sounds like a better version of our guidance. The 2km is sensible and more easily actionable. It would prevent the clustering at honeyspots.HYUFD said:1 -
If the primaries are cancelled wouldn't their state parties choose delegates instead? If there was a convention in whatever form, it's hard to imagine a bunch of states just sitting it out.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You might think about matching that with the results market, "Will candidate reach majority of pledged delegates". The rules aren't 100% clear if primaries don't happen, but Cuomo couldn't possible win a majority on the first vote.Casino_Royale said:I think Cuomo at 25/1 on Betfair is barking.
So, I've gone back in and laid him.
Plus Biden might not, if primaries are cancelled.0 -
Fuck it, go for that election Boris!RobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
I was slightly surprised that there was no uplift in the SNP vote although national polls like this are quite crude. Nicola has done very well through this so far and has possibly had a stroke of luck in the Salmond trial which got far, far less coverage than it would in normal times.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=211 -
It's not meaningless - you just have to look for the meaning. And the meaning here is that *at least* 54% of the country would seriously consider voting Tory. That's a much higher ceiling than we've previously assumed - and hence a much bigger pond in which to fish for votes in the future.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is kind of meaningless though. There are a whole series of mini black swans related to the main crisis which have to play out over the next year or so and any one of them could either boost or utterly destroy a Conservative Government.williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What really needs to happen at the moment is for the Labour party to pick an electable leader so that as events do unfold we have a realistic choice at the end of it all.3 -
The trouble, I think, is we ask ourselves the wrong question. We ask something along the lines of "who should be President?" or "who does America need to get through this crisis?" and this leads us to say Trump is too short because he is an idiot who has handled this all wrong, and Biden is too short because he is gaga. Bookmakers do not make these value judgements but pay out only on who is actually elected.peter_from_putney said:Another truly excellent thread from David Herdson.
I like others am nervous about backing Biden to become the next POTUS. mainly on account of his age and some doubt about about his mental agility to cope with the enormous demands of such a job, especially if one were to fast-forward a few years. Accordingly I don't fancy backing him at the modest odds on offer.
But then again, I certainly don't fancy backing Trump. We are currently at the back end of March and it's truly frightening to consider just how seriously and disastrously wrong the Covid-19 virus epidemic may become in the United States, largely it will be claimed as a result of the President's misguided actions.
Trump has so boxed himself into a corner with his optimistic forecasts, suggesting, for example, that the worst will be over by Easter, that if and when the opposite proves to be the case, there will be enormous pressure on him to step down which will only increase in intensity over the summer months, not least from Rebublicans who will wish to see a GOP candidate with at least some chance of making a good fist of it come the POTUS elections in November. Were he to step aside, it would likely be on the grounds of "ill-health" or suchlike, presumably with Mike Spence stepping in to the breach at least in the interim.
My outside punt therefore is to lay Trump against him being the Republican nominee at odds of 1.11, i.e. approx 1/9 on the Betfair Exchange.
As ever, DYOR
The reason it might not be Trump or Biden is not that they are not up to the job. If they are the candidates on the ballot paper, that is all that matters. Normally we would say Biden at 1.2 is very generously priced to be Democrat nominee, for instance. He has an unassailable lead and the people with doubts about Biden are no fans of Sanders, the only viable alternative.
The trouble is that as we have seen this week with the Prime Minister and the Prince of Wales being infected is that the virus does not care about rank.
If someone wants to back an alternative to Biden, then don't just look down the list for a familiar name at a big price but try to quantify how likely it is that Biden or Trump will succumb to Covid-19, and when they will succumb, and then try to predict how their parties will react. For me, it is all too complicated right now.0 -
There is always the simple expedient of laying Trump.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The trouble, I think, is we ask ourselves the wrong question. We ask something along the lines of "who should be President?" or "who does America need to get through this crisis?" and this leads us to say Trump is too short because he is an idiot who has handled this all wrong, and Biden is too short because he is gaga. Bookmakers do not make these value judgements but pay out only on who is actually elected.peter_from_putney said:Another truly excellent thread from David Herdson.
I like others am nervous about backing Biden to become the next POTUS. mainly on account of his age and some doubt about about his mental agility to cope with the enormous demands of such a job, especially if one were to fast-forward a few years. Accordingly I don't fancy backing him at the modest odds on offer.
But then again, I certainly don't fancy backing Trump. We are currently at the back end of March and it's truly frightening to consider just how seriously and disastrously wrong the Covid-19 virus epidemic may become in the United States, largely it will be claimed as a result of the President's misguided actions.
Trump has so boxed himself into a corner with his optimistic forecasts, suggesting, for example, that the worst will be over by Easter, that if and when the opposite proves to be the case, there will be enormous pressure on him to step down which will only increase in intensity over the summer months, not least from Rebublicans who will wish to see a GOP candidate with at least some chance of making a good fist of it come the POTUS elections in November. Were he to step aside, it would likely be on the grounds of "ill-health" or suchlike, presumably with Mike Spence stepping in to the breach at least in the interim.
My outside punt therefore is to lay Trump against him being the Republican nominee at odds of 1.11, i.e. approx 1/9 on the Betfair Exchange.
As ever, DYOR
The reason it might not be Trump or Biden is not that they are not up to the job. If they are the candidates on the ballot paper, that is all that matters. Normally we would say Biden at 1.2 is very generously priced to be Democrat nominee, for instance. He has an unassailable lead and the people with doubts about Biden are no fans of Sanders, the only viable alternative.
The trouble is that as we have seen this week with the Prime Minister and the Prince of Wales being infected is that the virus does not care about rank.
If someone wants to back an alternative to Biden, then don't just look down the list for a familiar name at a big price but try to quantify how likely it is that Biden or Trump will succumb to Covid-19, and when they will succumb, and then try to predict how their parties will react. For me, it is all too complicated right now.0 -
Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/12438584348665323530 -
There was the story the other day about an MP who was offered 1,000s of ventilators and why didn't the government take up the offer. It sounds like it is the total wild west and lots and lots of total scumbag agents promising all sort of dodgy stuff...we know Spain got caught buying 300,000 Chinese tests that were worse than useless and Italy with a delivery of kit from Russia in which 80% was totally unusable
UK wary of international market for ventilators
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52074862
Clearly the UK think their 3 strand approach is the safest option, but not without risks if Dyson or the other consortium making copies of an existing British model can't produce at the promised rate.1 -
What Trumps Rally Round The Flag surge is telling us is Trump is in deep doodoo. With such low ratings to start with there was plenty of room for rally round surge.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
Unlike Trump, Boris is in a different place, we have party politics so the first poll we look at is for movement in party support, and there Boris was historically high going into the crisis, for the most part because the Tory party hasn’t had any real scrutiny or opposition since the Labour Party social distanced itself from the Corbinista in 2016.
As the rally round effect begins to drop off, will the term the “Cheltenham Gamble” enter the political lexicon?0 -
look at this from the EBC, fcukwit robbing cheapskate propaganda twunts
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?0 -
Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.SouthamObserver said:
The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.felix said:
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.nichomar said:HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish themHYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21 people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.0 -
Glad we don’t have that here. My daily constitutional takes me more than 2km from my house.HYUFD said:0 -
She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well mademalcolmg said:Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/12438584348665323533 -
Has anybody Baxtered that?RobD said:
Oh baby.williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
LibDems on 7%.....is it even worth holding that leadership election next year?
Greens get a small uptick. Maybe a straw in the wind for What Happens After? The environment will be a significant issue for many. Boris to get hold of the Green Industrial Revolution with both hands....0 -
All good, except Brexit was never the common ground ; quite the opposite. This is an attempt to conflate Johnson's broadly ideologically flexible liberalism, which he's had for many years, with his stance on Brexit, which emerges from somewhere quite different, and something quite different in him.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)
This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.
Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics0 -
Of course in the real world, were he to do anything so absurd, the Tory lead would melt tike an ice cube on Nevada blacktop.MarqueeMark said:
Fuck it, go for that election Boris!RobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?0
-
Morning all.
I presume that Dominic Raaab is being protected from the outside world right now just in case the PM is incapacitated.
I fully expect to hear that other members of the cabinet have the virus before the weekend is out.
I thought this article on the BBC was useful:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111
0 -
I love an occasional and selective sub-sampleRobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
1 -
Short answer is that it didn’t.tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
It just got it under control very quickly.0 -
Yes, quite how that tweet pointed to the end of the aristocracy is beyond me.HYUFD said:
She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well mademalcolmg said:Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/12438584348665323532 -
-
I would certainly recommend washing them first...matthiasfromhamburg said:
Dear Dr Foxy, are the garments supposed to be more protective when they are well worn in?Foxy said:Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...
https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19
Asking for a friend.0 -
I was surprised by the Scottish CMO doing an advert on a Sky channel last night. If the BBC are not there to provide this information what are they for?malcolmg said:look at this from the EBC, fcukwit robbing cheapskate propaganda twunts
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?1 -
I don't think so. It's a rally-round-the-flag boost. But that effect only lasts as long as people have confidence in the commander in chief. Now, Trump's been very good at selling confidence (in himself but also in America, which voters like), and in selling hate as well.rottenborough said:
Maybe because many americans seem to be idiots?david_herdson said:
Yes, but his ratings are up because the public think he's doing a wonderful job on Covid-19. How does he sustain that impression for seven months?HYUFD said:I still think Trump will win but relatively narrowly, all Biden has done is ensure it will be close as the Democrats did when they picked Kerry over Dean in 2004 against President Bush or the Republicans did in 2012 when they picked Romney over Santorum or Gingrich.
Trump's rating is still only hovering around 50% which means he was not going to be re elected by a landslide provided the Democrats picked a centrist alternative, however his ratings are up on the 35 to 40% they were for most of last year which means he is no longer at Carter 1980 levels and a sitting duck
But what happens when that expression of confidence jars increasingly with the evident reality in a way that *hadn't* happened between 2017-19? The economy *was* going strongly; unemployment *was* at a record low; the stock market *was* at a record high. Those were facts (whether Trump's achievements or not) that gave validity to the confidence. But they're now in the past and unlikely to recover by November.0 -
The Python&Radiohead hating Albanian taxi driver (loved pineapple pizza) I met the other day was an expert on Scottish poll sub-samples, as it happens.....felix said:
I love an occasional and selective sub-sampleRobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
They are my favourite kind of sub-sample.felix said:
I love an occasional and selective sub-sampleRobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
(note I wasn't being entirely serious, hence the cheeky smiley)0 -
Wouldn't it be wonderful to see the Tories ahead in Scotland!!!!. Might wipe the smug look.off la Nicola.MarqueeMark said:
Fuck it, go for that election Boris!RobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
And it wasn't just Hubei that shut down, 100s millions of people across China were put in lockdown. I believe all school kids have been home schooled over the internet for weeks now, that's 200 million of them.MaxPB said:
They stopped all transport in and out of Hubei overnight.tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
Also, I don't think any western government fully believes the Chinese figures. I am sure they have been massaged some what.1 -
Huge mystery.tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/0 -
One thing that is correct, is trying to portray Johnson as a right wing, foaming at the mouth extremist doesn't work.WhisperingOracle said:
All good, except Brexit was never the common ground ; quite the opposite. This is an attempt to conflate Johnson's broadly ideologically flexible liberalism, which he's had for many years, with his stance on Brexit, which emerges from somewhere quite different, and something quite different in him.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)
This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.
Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics
Remember the hilarious campaign against him on his first run for Mayor - trying too portray him as BNP-lite? Had everyone I knew going WTF??1 -
Smelling salts on standby....MarqueeMark said:
Has anybody Baxtered that?RobD said:
Oh baby.williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
LibDems on 7%.....is it even worth holding that leadership election next year?
Greens get a small uptick. Maybe a straw in the wind for What Happens After? The environment will be a significant issue for many. Boris to get hold of the Green Industrial Revolution with both hands....
Tory majority of 232.
1 -
The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.felix said:
Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.SouthamObserver said:
The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.felix said:
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.nichomar said:HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish themHYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21 people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.
0 -
Four years ago the Republicans went through and chose Trump.DAlexander said:Biden is completely unviable, he'd be 78 before he even starts his first term and he's not a young 78 either. There's almost no chance of him completing two terms and not a great one of completing his first either.
How the Democrats went through all the rigmarole of the primaries just to choose him is beyond me.0 -
Boris -- and I think it is Boris and not Dom -- learns from mistakes. He won the election because he saw how Labour nearly won in 2017 and nicked most of its platform. It has been a pattern since his Oxford days at least when successful at his second run for the union.
Boris has a huge lead now because he has been front and centre and that is because he learned from his failure to do that with the floods. He was criticised whereas Gordon Brown got a boost from standing around in wellies gazing implacably into the mid-distance. At times of crisis, all it takes is for a leader to seem engaged, empathic and determined. Boris adapts. Boris evolves.0 -
But that was only in Wuhan, as I understand.felix said:
The mother of all welded lockdowns!tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
0 -
I would not be surprised. Their numbers simply aren't believable. Only 50 new cases per day, with a population that large?IshmaelZ said:
Huge mystery.tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/0 -
With the mess up Boris and Trump made at the start of the crisis, wasted the extra time given them in muddled strategy and communication, this rally round flag bounce feels like when someone has crossed line first in GP, but we all know there was that incident, it’s going to be looked at, and they are going to be severely demoted.RobD said:
Oh baby.williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
Off the top of my head George Wubulya Bush started at 55 surged to 80 and dropped to 40 during 9/11 rally round.
On the Rally Round the flag in crisis history, do facts get re written. Churchill, world war 2 for example. When people sell Churchill they sell the Great War leader, unfatiguable determination, rousing rhetoric that lifted a nation. I understand when he toured bombed city’s he was roundly boo’d, and then thoroughly stuffed at the polls as soon as GE came along. So that also screws the correct history of the Incoming Labour administration, on the grounds they would have to have made a fantastic connection with voters to have beaten Churchill surely, when the true answer is no, they didn’t. They just were not the unpopular Churchill.0 -
More recently he has been portrayed as the opposite. Not right wing authoritarian enough, with his limp approach to a lockdown....Malmesbury said:
One thing that is correct, is trying to portray Johnson as a right wing, foaming at the mouth extremist doesn't work.WhisperingOracle said:
All good, except Brexit was never the common ground ; quite the opposite. This is an attempt to conflate Johnson's broadly ideologically flexible liberalism, which he's had for many years, with his stance on Brexit, which emerges from somewhere quite different, and something quite different in him.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)
This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.
Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics
Remember the hilarious campaign against him on his first run for Mayor - trying too portray him as BNP-lite? Had everyone I knew going WTF??0 -
I'd have thought that while stonkingly great poll ratings for the Conservative and Johnson (who were already riding pretty high on a GE and Brexit boost) are obviously not relevant in terms of any imminent election or even necessarily a sign for the future, it is still at least relevant in terms of demonstrating they are doing a sufficiently good job with the current crisis to engender a rally round the flag effect, and most people would like to see us rally round the authorities at such time even if the political nature of such a poll would not wish to be repeated for many.1
-
Agreed and unfortunately virtually the whole government were out in force for a massive Womens' march in Madrid a few weeks ago and subsequently came down with the virus. All very unfortunate but oxygen for the critics. We need those figures to start falling pronto.SouthamObserver said:
The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.felix said:
Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.SouthamObserver said:
The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.felix said:
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.nichomar said:HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish themHYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21 people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.0 -
I commented here yesterday that dealing with compensation to the self-employed is going to cause a lot of problems down the line, as so many don't have accurate records.squareroot2 said:My niece just whatsapped this to me
Good one.
What makes me laugh is all these ‘clever’ self employed people who’ve lied about their earnings to pay less maintenance for their children..Karma!
Memories of the aftermath of the Grenfell Tower fire, where a dozen or so people ended up in prison for fraud related to the emergency government funding that was made available to those affected.0 -
Another symptom of BDS?FrancisUrquhart said:
More recently he has been portrayed as the opposite. Not right wing authoritarian enough, with his limp approach to a lockdown....Malmesbury said:
One thing that is correct, is trying to portray Johnson as a right wing, foaming at the mouth extremist doesn't work.WhisperingOracle said:
All good, except Brexit was never the common ground ; quite the opposite. This is an attempt to conflate Johnson's broadly ideologically flexible liberalism, which he's had for many years, with his stance on Brexit, which emerges from somewhere quite different, and something quite different in him.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)
This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.
Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics
Remember the hilarious campaign against him on his first run for Mayor - trying too portray him as BNP-lite? Had everyone I knew going WTF??0 -
look at this from the EBC
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?
She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.HYUFD said:
She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well mademalcolmg said:Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353
Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.-2 -
It is actually only an 85% survival rate for over 80s with Covid 19 but get the pointCasino_Royale said:Whilst Covid19 does tend to be more deadly to the elderly it's worth noting that over 90% of over 80s who get it also survive; it's underlying health and the strength of the immune system that's key.
So, even if Trump and Biden did get it, they'd be overwhelmingly likely to survive.0 -
That's not a zinger. It is a clever reply, but to long to be a zinger. It is about 59 seconds longer than Reagan's "There he goes again"david_herdson said:
He won't. But it's also such a predictable line of attack that Biden and his campaign should be able to prepare a zinger response. "You talk about a diseased mind, Mr Trump? Let me tell you what a diseased mind looks like ... [give several examples of Trump's utter lack of empathy]; it's not my mind that's diseased: it's yours".Sandpit said:It all depends on what happens with the coronavirus.
Running an election campaign from opposition in the middle of a crisis is really difficult, there's a fine line between presenting an alternative vision and mindless government-bashing when they're up to their necks in something not entirely of their own making.
Head-to-head debates between Trump and Biden could get very ugly though, Trump won't be afraid to call his opponent out as being mentally sick.0 -
I’d ask HYUFD to present his case for Trump not being a dangerous degenerate - but I’m pretty sure it would merely be a reference to his polling ratings.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Oh, for goodness sake HYUFD. You can hardly get snippy about others on here presenting opinion as fact. Look in the mirror, mate.HYUFD said:
In your opinionDavidL said:
Nope. The man is a dangerous degenerate.HYUFD said:
I would have voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 (as most Americans did in the popular vote) but I would vote for Trump over Corbyn or the SNP (or Sanders) anydayDavidL said:I am not going to pretend that I understand the United States. We are deceived by a broadly common language into believing that we do. How anyone with any sense of morality could have voted for Trump in 2016 is beyond my comprehension. I have some idea as to why some deluded souls vote for the SNP or even for Corbyn but Trump was really beyond me.
Since then he has exceeded expectations is his all round awfulness. Now, his incompetence, stupidity and arrogance is going to be the cause of multiple times the deaths of Americans that bin Laden achieved. And yet his polling is improving, his likely opponent is incredibly weak and he may be elected again. As I said, a completely different country.2 -
On the one hand it feels like we need to be careful not to disbelieve figures from China (or similar places) simply on account of the fact that they are a brutal authoritarian dictatorship who we do not like, and in fact being a brutal authoritarian dictatorship could help them with certain measures. On the other hand, they are still a brutal authoritarian dictatorship, who also sought to deny events first, and its censorship and propaganda regime is remarkable, so wariness does not seem unreasonable.RobD said:
I would not be surprised. Their numbers simply aren't believable. Only 50 new cases per day, with a population that large?IshmaelZ said:
Huge mystery.tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
Iran seems to odd one based on various reports.0 -
LOL, you have delusion virussquareroot2 said:
Wouldn't it be wonderful to see the Tories ahead in Scotland!!!!. Might wipe the smug look.off la Nicola.MarqueeMark said:
Fuck it, go for that election Boris!RobD said:
Tories 3% behind the SNP in Scotland.Theuniondivvie said:
*biggest Tory poll lead in Wangland.HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
Morning Malc.. lockdown getting to you ?malcolmg said:look at this from the EBC
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?
She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.HYUFD said:
She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well mademalcolmg said:Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353
Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.0 -
For some of us, there's been more than three hours of drinking time already!TOPPING said: Cheers! 0 -
So highlighting an actual problem and encouraging people to reach out to the societal provisions for dealing with that problem makes you an arse?malcolmg said:look at this from the EBC
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?
She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.HYUFD said:
She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well mademalcolmg said:Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353
Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.
There's a big chunk of timber stuck in your eye, friend.0 -
They are there to feed us English news David, you should know that as you live here.DavidL said:
I was surprised by the Scottish CMO doing an advert on a Sky channel last night. If the BBC are not there to provide this information what are they for?malcolmg said:look at this from the EBC, fcukwit robbing cheapskate propaganda twunts
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?
PS: You know that is no joke, they are pathetic and output on Scottish matters is miniscule and biased if you do not count the odd Teuchter music show.0 -
What did the Dutch minister say?SouthamObserver said:
The Dutch minister's comments were an absolute disgrace and reminded me that I voted Remain not because I had any affection for the EU but because I thought leaving was a worse idea than staying. There have been failings, as there have in many countries, including this one; and it is politcally very charged in Spain right now, as it has been for a long while. That's why I think a GONU woud be very hard. The real shame is that C's ruled out a coalition with PSOE after April's election. That would have had a solid majority and would have meant no Podemos in power. However, the devolved healthcare systems, the social interaction, the number of people living in flats, etc would still have been there. The one real charge you can lay at the government's feet, I think, is the failure to act decisively sooner. Had it done so, it woud still have been horrific, but undoubtedly less horrific than it is now.felix said:
Of course I agree wrt the UK but in Spain the optics atm are not good. There have been quite big failings re test kits, the flight to second homes and the awful care home scandals. In addition the current coalition lacks an overall majority. The health service is buckling in the centre and parts of the north. Catalonia continues being awkward. The EU and European allies have left Italy and Spain out to dry sadly. The Dutch minister's comments at the EU summit have gone down very badly.SouthamObserver said:
The polling in Spain has been pretty non-existent recently, but one I saw this week basically had the result at where it was for the last election. In the UK, I think it is very good news that a large majority currently have confidence in the government. If we were divided the kind of collective action needed to combat the emergency would be far harder to undertake. There is plenty of time for normal politics to resume later.felix said:
It's very encouraging at a time of crisis that the government has the confidence of the people. Long may it last in the UK - we are not quite so fortunate here in Spain but at least where I live people are strongly backing the lockdown.nichomar said:HYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
What’s encouraging about it? Who gives a shit that it is the biggest lead since god knows when I’m not sure why a) they publish themHYUFD said:
Encouraging and the biggest Tory poll lead since Thatcher post Falklands in 1982 apparently but next week Corbyn will be gone and Starmer will likely be Labour leader and the Tories poll lead may narrowwilliamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21 people read them
C) anybody thinks it’s relevant
We can hopeful resume Or not petty party politics in 12 months time
I still hope we'll pull through and life here in the SE is very calm and compliant. However, this is a very conservative rural zone very unlike the rest of the country. Turbulent times.0 -
I think Boris is divided between an ideologically flexible people-pleaser, which I would see as the more positive side of his personality, and a fiercely ambitious calculator.Malmesbury said:
One thing that is correct, is trying to portray Johnson as a right wing, foaming at the mouth extremist doesn't work.WhisperingOracle said:
All good, except Brexit was never the common ground ; quite the opposite. This is an attempt to conflate Johnson's broadly ideologically flexible liberalism, which he's had for many years, with his stance on Brexit, which emerges from somewhere quite different, and something quite different in him.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn gets it (as usual)
This is not a premier anchored to ideology, just one who has what might be termed 'ceteris paribus inclinations' that he is ready to temper given the course of events.
Johnson has long had a nose for what Sir Keith Joseph termed 'the common ground' and had already occupied it on everything from getting Brexit done, to tougher law and order and more generous NHS funding before the Covid-19 crisis erupted. Attempts by left-wing politicians and pundits, mired as they are in minority sensibilities, to depict him as a right-wing extremist are not only doomed to failure but will appear increasingly off-the-wall to normal members of the public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-s-coronavirus-pragmatism-is-confounding-his-critics
Remember the hilarious campaign against him on his first run for Mayor - trying too portray him as BNP-lite? Had everyone I knew going WTF??
It's very difficult not to see his Brexit stance in terms of the raw ambition of his personality. He exaggerated stories in the 1990s in Brussels partly simply to get on, and he knew by returning to and re-emphasising that particular set of views of the EU, which he himself helped shape, he could get on further, on to his ultimate ambition of prime minister. This is also connected to part of his personality that enjoys provocation.
This crisis is bringing out the best side of him because an ideologically flexible and open-minded response is unqestionably best both for all of us , and his prime ministership, so the two aspects of his personality are able to work more harmoniously, or in a more integrated way , as Jung might say.1 -
She is staying at Clarence House herself and she made the speech you attacked, not Charles.malcolmg said:look at this from the EBC
BBC Scotland insists it cannot provide health broadcasts in Scotland, for staffing and cost reasons. The Scottish Government provides daily updates. Question, so where is the cost to them in running these?
She is an arse, she should practice what she preaches to the plebs or send helicopters round to everyone so they can chose which one of their other houses/mansions/castles they want to go to , thereby breaking the stay at home message.HYUFD said:
She was talking about domestic violence and her comments were well mademalcolmg said:Have these people no self awareness or principles
https://twitter.com/Grouse_Beater/status/1243858434866532353
Your post also highlights what an absolute arse you are.
The fact you decided to abuse her for making a speech about domestic violence says more about you than me2 -
Slightly disappointing, according to my friend. He prefers them a little more 'spicy'.Foxy said:
I would certainly recommend washing them first...matthiasfromhamburg said:
Dear Dr Foxy, are the garments supposed to be more protective when they are well worn in?Foxy said:Video had emerged from Penarth. Watch until the end...
https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1243812935992061952?s=19
Asking for a friend.0 -
When was last time the Tories were twice Labour 😆squareroot2 said:
Tories way up and the idiot Corbyn still thinks he won...williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=210 -
George W Bush was re elected.egg said:
With the mess up Boris and Trump made at the start of the crisis, wasted the extra time given them in muddled strategy and communication, this rally round flag bounce feels like when someone has crossed line first in GP, but we all know there was that incident, it’s going to be looked at, and they are going to be severely demoted.RobD said:
Oh baby.williamglenn said:Look away now, HYUFD.
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/1243823761650040832?s=21
Off the top of my head George Wubulya Bush started at 55 surged to 80 and dropped to 40 during 9/11 rally round.
On the Rally Round the flag in crisis history, do facts get re written. Churchill, world war 2 for example. When people sell Churchill they sell the Great War leader, unfatiguable determination, rousing rhetoric that lifted a nation. I understand when he toured bombed city’s he was roundly boo’d, and then thoroughly stuffed at the polls as soon as GE came along. So that also screws the correct history of the Incoming Labour administration, on the grounds they would have to have made a fantastic connection with voters to have beaten Churchill surely, when the true answer is no, they didn’t. They just were not the unpopular Churchill.
Churchill would have won a landslide in a 1940 general election, by July 1945 the war in Europe was won and the Tories had been in power over a decade0 -
As they start un-welding all the apartment blocks they imprisoned people in two months ago, they will probably find more than a few bodies inside. Not that anyone will ever know about them.IshmaelZ said:
Huge mystery.tlg86 said:I must have not paid attention at the time, but can someone explain how China prevented this virus from spreading through the rest of the country at the same time it has spread through the rest of the world?
Also funeral urn counts suggest 60,000 dead in Wuhan, not 3,000 as claimed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/27/doubts-surface-chinese-virus-death-toll-thousands-urns-spotted/
Some things just cannot be done in a democracy, what happened in Wuhan being close to the top of the list.1 -
Appeasement is no solution. He's a dangerous killer, who's enlisting thousands of new supporters every day. Prison's too good for him. He should be hanged.DougSeal said:Don’t shoot the messenger- I’m just throwing this out there. Has anyone considered actually sitting down and talking with Covid-19? We may be able to reach a negotiated solution.
0 -
Surely takeaways (preparation and pick up) are much more of an issue than exercise which involves very briefly passing people? And then there are the other health impacts of these activities to consider.HYUFD said:
I ran 15 miles yesterday, including a five mile section offroad where I encountered no one. Staying closer to home and doing loops along the esplanade wouldn't be doing anyone any favours.2 -
Germany’s death figures are slowly becoming slightly less remarkable. Maybe it really was the case that they managed to identify many more infections at an early stage after all.0
