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Sunil_Prasannan said:

Endillion said:

Ok, new theory:

- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
- This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
- It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
- Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
- Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
- the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
- there are wildly different death rates in different countries
- case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
- The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
- The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
- I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

Cases in Lombardy in November?

Fits perfectly. Could've got to Wuhan from Lombardy, or the other way round, and either way hit both regions simultaneously. Possibly was slower to take hold in Lombardy because there was more immunity in the local population from earlier waves.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Anabobazina said:

Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!

I believe they are now doing their own makeup

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the ladies on the show are far better at it!

TGOHF666 said:

Endillion said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Endillion said:

Ok, new theory:

- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
- This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
- It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
- Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
- Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
- the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
- there are wildly different death rates in different countries
- case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
- The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
- The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
- I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

Cases in Lombardy in November?

Fits perfectly. Could've got to Wuhan from Lombardy, or the other way round, and either way hit both regions simultaneously. Possibly was slower to take hold in Lombardy because there was more immunity in the local population from earlier waves.

Beijing appreciates your efforts Comrade.

#DonaldtheButcher

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Anabobazina said:

Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!

I believe they are now doing their own makeup

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the ladies on the show are far better at it!

As I have never worn makeup it would not be a problem for me

IanB2 said:

Endillion said:

Ok, new theory:

- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
- This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
- It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
- Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
- Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
- the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
- there are wildly different death rates in different countries
- case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
- The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
- The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
- I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

Incredibly infectious is over stating things. I believe the chance of transmission on single contact has been estimated at 5%. Both the ski chalet and the cruise ship shows that it is possible to have repeated exposure and still not catch it.

Indeed. What is the infection rate of the Common Cold? That said, I haven’t had a cold for nearly five years, since a ward doctor mate told me just to wash my hands and under my nails several times a day. One of the best pieces of life advice I have ever had.

tyson said:

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Benpointer said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.

If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.

I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.

Have you got a source for that?

@Foxy posted a link, I think.

IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.

Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19

Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?

I wouldn't go as far as that. We have plenty of gloves, masks and aprons at Leicester. There are shortages of FFP3 masks and of the long sleeved gowns. The biggest practical issue is the ability to identify the patients that we need to use it on.

I cannot obviously say where my nephew is...his ward now has 30 Covid's (non acute)..there are another 22 non covids segregated...and he doesn't feel safe....they have makeshifted stuff to feel safe

Sounds bad. In Leicester we have 34 confirmed inpatients and 6 deaths. Lots of suspect cases though.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1242923617391972352/photo/1

...and the winner is... Rebecca Long Bailey??

33/1

The only way she wins based on the polls is if most Labour members have not received a ballot paper, in which case Starmer would likely succeed in overturning the result in the courts anyway

Point 1 Correct. Point 2 That will look really, really professional for a party preparing for government...not!

JonathanD said:

egg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1242935240873709568?s=20

Nope. Spain.

The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.

Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.

Anabobazina said:

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Not sure about that. I would be wondering how many were infected on the rescue flights rather than in China.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Anabobazina said:

Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!

I believe they are now doing their own makeup

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the ladies on the show are far better at it!

As I have never worn makeup it would not be a problem for me

I guess you have never been on telly either. The studio lights are brutal. Even beery blokes need makeup.

Foxy said:

JonathanD said:

egg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1242935240873709568?s=20

Nope. Spain.

The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.

Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.

Will a vaccine be found for covid 19

IanB2 said:

Endillion said:

Ok, new theory:

- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
- This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
- It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
- Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
- Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
- the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
- there are wildly different death rates in different countries
- case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
- The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
- The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
- I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

Incredibly infectious is over stating things. I believe the chance of transmission on single contact has been estimated at 5%. Both the ski chalet and the cruise ship shows that it is possible to have repeated exposure and still not catch it.

Aha! Indeed. But that picture changes dramatically if a significant proportion on the cruise ship and at the ski chalet had already had a previous iteration. Which they would have, if the previous iteration had been predominantly in the West, rather than China. But they'd still test negative, because we don't have a test that identifies antibodies.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

JonathanD said:

egg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1242935240873709568?s=20

Nope. Spain.

The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.

Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.

Will a vaccine be found for covid 19

I expect so. The problem is timing...

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

JonathanD said:

egg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1242935240873709568?s=20

Nope. Spain.

The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.

Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.

Will a vaccine be found for covid 19

I expect so. The problem is timing...

Thanks because earlier the question was asked

All the best and keep safe

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848

Good bye Corbyn. You wrecked the labour party

I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.

And lost

Once again, in fairness to Corbyn they all did!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848

Good bye Corbyn. You wrecked the labour party

I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.

And lost

against May and her Kryptonite manifesto.......

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

JonathanD said:

egg said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1242935240873709568?s=20

Nope. Spain.

The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.

Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.

Will a vaccine be found for covid 19

I expect so. The problem is timing...

It's tricky. The modern vaccine technologies are incredible (relative to what we're used to), but the testing procedure is incredibly rigorous since a bad vaccine can easily be worse than no vaccine. More likely we get anti-virals (that may have prophylactic properties) developed that can stop a certain fraction of cases progressing to more serious symptoms, making the disease much more manageable. There are numerous ongoing clinical trials that should report in the next 4 weeks or so I think. In the short term that will be more promising I think.

Floater said:

I hear my local A and E is very busy - if what I hear is true some very dumb people rocking up to A and E with symptoms.

I am surprised that they got through the door

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331

Beyond parody!

another_richard said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Benpointer said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.

If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.

I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.

Have you got a source for that?

@Foxy posted a link, I think.

IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.

Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19

Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?

Didn't they just get 15 million masks and 25 million gloves?

As of today...and I carry on bleating on about this...my family are working in NHS wards and do not feel safe...

I have a good friend in St Thomas's...I will name this...who is working on a respiratory ward who is given the right equipment....

I was surprised too hear Floater telling me that Fox has said that all is well

Do you think it is the government's job to micro-manage everything which takes place in the NHS ?

Now does the NHS have a 100% guaranteed level of resources for every possible event ?

Of course it doesn't and nor could it and for that matter nor could any of us.

Tyson is also misquoting me - but hey ho

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Anabobazina said:

Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!

I believe they are now doing their own makeup

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the ladies on the show are far better at it!

As I have never worn makeup it would not be a problem for me

I guess you have never been on telly either. The studio lights are brutal. Even beery blokes need makeup.

I have been interviewed in the past but that was a long time ago

I dare say G you were the 1 in 1000 that didn’t need the powder.

ABZ said:

Floater said:

I hear my local A and E is very busy - if what I hear is true some very dumb people rocking up to A and E with symptoms.

Oh dear... people partying over the past few days?

It sounds like a fair number are exhibiting Covid symptoms - they should NOT be going to A and E

Endillion said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1242905328209080331

I am absolutely loving "LameStream Media". It's the capital S that tips it over the top.

I'll say this - it at least makes more sense than being a mainstream media outlet that continually rails against the mainstream media.

B & Q:

The COVID-19 crisis continues to evolve, so I wanted to update you on some changes here at B&Q.
Over the last 48 hours we have been working hard to create a service that focuses on providing essential products for repair and maintenance of the home. This means we can keep supplies open and give our customers the best possible service to ensure their homes are safe, warm and in working order.
In order to do this in the safest possible way for our colleagues and customers, we are making some changes:
• Our website, diy.com, will be our primary store, giving customers access to a range of essential products.
• The Click+Collect range will be reduced to ensure we do everything we can to limit unnecessary purchases, so that our customers and colleagues are protected from needless contact.
• Customers can now use our new contactless Click+Collect service from their local store. This will allow you to pick up items from an allocated parking zone and we will bring products to your car.
• We are working on our home delivery service to enable us to provide a fuller product range.
• Stores will remain closed to customers for browsing and purchasing.
We urge you to follow all the Government’s social distancing guidelines and to shop responsibly for essential needs only. The safety of customers and colleagues remains our top priority.

Gallowgate said:

I’ve met a wonderful woman on a dating app, but I can’t meet her for months. This truly is tragic.

Can't you FaceTime?

Gallowgate said:

I’ve met a wonderful woman on a dating app, but I can’t meet her for months. This truly is tragic.

That is sad but something to look forward to on the other side of this

justin124 said:

Floater said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848

Good bye Corbyn. You wrecked the labour party

I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.

And lost

No party won the 2017 election.

Remind me who formed the Government

That was courtesy of the DUP.

So not Labour then ... who therefore lost

Foxy said:

Gallowgate said:

I’ve met a wonderful woman on a dating app, but I can’t meet her for months. This truly is tragic.

Think of it as a Victorian romance!

I was thinking that

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Anabobazina said:

Anabobazina said:

Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!

I believe they are now doing their own makeup

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the ladies on the show are far better at it!

As I have never worn makeup it would not be a problem for me

I guess you have never been on telly either. The studio lights are brutal. Even beery blokes need makeup.

I have been interviewed in the past but that was a long time ago

I dare say G you were the 1 in 1000 that didn’t need the powder.

Yes just plain me

justin124 said:

Floater said:

justin124 said:

Floater said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848

Good bye Corbyn. You wrecked the labour party

I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.

And lost

No party won the 2017 election.

Remind me who formed the Government

That was courtesy of the DUP.

So not Labour then ... who therefore lost

They all lost - ditto in 2010 .

I hate to break it to you as you seem to be struggling with this.

The aim is to be in Government - if you form a government you have won.

Labour could not, they lost

NHS staff are being targeted by muggers trying to steal their identity badges so they can use them to obtain the free food and drinks being offered to doctors and nurses tackling coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/nhs-staff-warned-to-hide-id-after-spate-of-targeted-muggings

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.

The Netherlands says hi. They really are in a mess. Basically tracking UK numbers with a fraction of the population. Belgium looking dodgy also.

USA 65,652 +10,796 931 +151

About that opening up the economy in 18 days Mr Trump................

MyBurningEars said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

Hunt on Peston now.

Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.

I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.

When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.

Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).

I think that is unfortunately true. It is refreshing to hear from a politician who speaks lucidly and with authority about Coronavirus.

alex_ said:

The Netherlands says hi. They really are in a mess. Basically tracking UK numbers with a fraction of the population. Belgium looking dodgy also.

A friend in Holland who was positive about things a week ago was by the weekend despondent - their health system under huge pressure

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Police have the power to fine from tomorrow

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Police have the power to fine from tomorrow

I think £30 is far too low. Should be more like £300.

rottenborough said:

Mail:

"Rapper M.I.A. has revealed she is anti-vaccination and would 'choose death' over getting a coronavirus vaccination amid the ongoing pandemic.

The Paper Planes hitmaker, 44, declared her stance on vaccinations and expressed her regret at being 'made to' vaccinate her son, 11, before he started school in a series of tweets on Wednesday.

The musician, real name Mathangi Arulpragasam, wrote: 'If I have to choose the vaccine or chip I'm gonna choose death.'


Mad.

I saw MIA headlining at The Big Chill some years ago. Quite possibly the worst act that I have ever seen live.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Police have the power to fine from tomorrow

I think £30 is far too low. Should be more like £300.

I thought it went from £30 to £1,000

It's also simplistic to say anti-vaxxers are just fooled by random coincidences. The article doesn't make this point, but vaccines generally have adverse events associated. Usually rare, and if you experience one it will likely be mild, but the worst adverse events can be very gruesome indeed. Frankly, just reading the list of harms we do know vaccines can cause is sufficient to tip some people into the anti-vaxx column. A lot of cost-benefit style calculations get number-crunched before vaccines get signed off. In principle a rational person might disagree with that calculation, feel the risks are not worth it, and take their chances - in fact this is scarily rational if other people are more compliant and so you can still get the benefits of the vaccine via herd immunity without having to face the risk of any adverse events! But if too many people try freeloading like that, then the herd immunity fails. What do you do to stop them - make it compulsory? Ban kids from schools unless they've had their shots or have a medical condition that prevents them doing so? These are vexed questions.

There's a strong chance that vaccines developed in a rush to beat a pandemic are going to have a greater rate of nasty adverse events than a vaccine that's had many years of careful trials, for obvious reasons. But you really, really want people to take it rather than freeload. Some countries (including the UK) have a sort of no-fault insurance scheme whereby people who suffer vaccine injury can receive compensation (some countries limit this to pandemic vaccines only). Hopefully this encourages people to take the vaccines up by providing some mitigation if e.g. they miss a few days of work due to nasty side-effects. There's an occasional counter-argument: telling a mum that there's a scheme in place to pay her X dollars if the vaccine kills her darling daughter may not encourage her to think the vaccine is perfectly safe (which, after all, it isn't - but if you're tasked with maximising vaccine uptake, you might rather wish parents believed it was), and people may be wary of taking active steps that endanger loved ones in a psychologically asymmetric way to the risks they're prepared to expose their loved ones to via negligent inaction.

There's also an issue implicit in that article but never really addressed because of its failure to consider the genuine health risks that vaccination can cause. We are correctly informed that the government is relying on young and middle-aged people to get vaccinated in order to keep older people safe, because older people's immune systems generally don't get the full benefit of vaccination. And the risks of COVID-19 lie mostly with the elderly. So we are expecting one group to accept the harms of vaccination for minimal personal benefit, largely in order to confer benefits to another group... that certainly raises "interesting" ethical issues! But also from a messaging point of view, has plenty of potential to backfire.

RobD said:

alex_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

Looks like a car park, at least judging by the lines.

Nah, look at the arrows in the road. Presumably of course it’s a far more mundane explanation of an inverted image.

alex_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

The two lanes of the road are to their left. They're parked.

alex_ said:

RobD said:

alex_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Some people still not getting the message,

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

Looks like a car park, at least judging by the lines.

Nah, look at the arrows in the road. Presumably of course it’s a far more mundane explanation of an inverted image.

Look at the Mazda. The steering wheel is on the right side but there's no driver.

The arrows are that way because they're for people overtaking.

Foxy said:

MyBurningEars said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

Hunt on Peston now.

Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.

I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.

When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.

Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).

Apart from his stupidity over the junior doctors rotas, I was never anti Hunt. There have been plenty of worse Health Secs in my career. Hancock is OK too.

I am guessing neither Lansley or Keith Joseph were favourites.