- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Cases in Lombardy in November?
Fits perfectly. Could've got to Wuhan from Lombardy, or the other way round, and either way hit both regions simultaneously. Possibly was slower to take hold in Lombardy because there was more immunity in the local population from earlier waves.
Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.
If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.
I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.
Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?
I wouldn't go as far as that. We have plenty of gloves, masks and aprons at Leicester. There are shortages of FFP3 masks and of the long sleeved gowns. The biggest practical issue is the ability to identify the patients that we need to use it on.
I cannot obviously say where my nephew is...his ward now has 30 Covid's (non acute)..there are another 22 non covids segregated...and he doesn't feel safe....they have makeshifted stuff to feel safe
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Cases in Lombardy in November?
Fits perfectly. Could've got to Wuhan from Lombardy, or the other way round, and either way hit both regions simultaneously. Possibly was slower to take hold in Lombardy because there was more immunity in the local population from earlier waves.
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Cases in Lombardy in November?
Fits perfectly. Could've got to Wuhan from Lombardy, or the other way round, and either way hit both regions simultaneously. Possibly was slower to take hold in Lombardy because there was more immunity in the local population from earlier waves.
The only way she wins based on the polls is if most Labour members have not received a ballot paper, in which case Starmer would likely succeed in overturning the result in the courts anyway
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Ant eaters the worlds most trafficked animals? That’s less WWF more WTF!
Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
This claim looks very doubtful to me. The man is said to have left Ischgl on 19 January. The earliest confirmed cases in Europe were in France on 24 January and there were no confirmed cases in Austria until 25 February. The cases exported from Ischgl and the alleged cover-up were in late February.
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Incredibly infectious is over stating things. I believe the chance of transmission on single contact has been estimated at 5%. Both the ski chalet and the cruise ship shows that it is possible to have repeated exposure and still not catch it.
Indeed. What is the infection rate of the Common Cold? That said, I haven’t had a cold for nearly five years, since a ward doctor mate told me just to wash my hands and under my nails several times a day. One of the best pieces of life advice I have ever had.
Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.
Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society
It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate
And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so
I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?
I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
The way you attack my support for Boris and HMG but to be honest Tyson I do care about your family, indeed for everyone on the front line, and please accept that I do not want to fall out with you or anyone to be honest
I hope your family get the PPE they need and just a little personal point, my dear niece and her husband have both gone down with covid 19 and are making a slow and painful recovery
I am really, really sorry to hear about your family being ill....this is truly a terrible time that is impacting on all us in some way........
It is Tyson and I am sorry if I upset you
..you are decent bloke Big_G...that is why I can get frustrated with you when I wouldn't even bother with others.......
I think we agree on 75% of everything...maybe more....and maybe more than that...notably that Corbyn was a disaster...
And...I do think that Johnson et al are pointing (belatedly) in the right direction with Covid 19.....
Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.
If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.
I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.
Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?
I wouldn't go as far as that. We have plenty of gloves, masks and aprons at Leicester. There are shortages of FFP3 masks and of the long sleeved gowns. The biggest practical issue is the ability to identify the patients that we need to use it on.
I cannot obviously say where my nephew is...his ward now has 30 Covid's (non acute)..there are another 22 non covids segregated...and he doesn't feel safe....they have makeshifted stuff to feel safe
Sounds bad. In Leicester we have 34 confirmed inpatients and 6 deaths. Lots of suspect cases though.
The only way she wins based on the polls is if most Labour members have not received a ballot paper, in which case Starmer would likely succeed in overturning the result in the courts anyway
Point 1 Correct. Point 2 That will look really, really professional for a party preparing for government...not!
Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.
Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society
It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate
And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so
I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?
I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
The way you attack my support for Boris and HMG but to be honest Tyson I do care about your family, indeed for everyone on the front line, and please accept that I do not want to fall out with you or anyone to be honest
I hope your family get the PPE they need and just a little personal point, my dear niece and her husband have both gone down with covid 19 and are making a slow and painful recovery
I am really, really sorry to hear about your family being ill....this is truly a terrible time that is impacting on all us in some way........
It is Tyson and I am sorry if I upset you
..you are decent bloke Big_G...that is why I can get frustrated with you when I wouldn't even bother with others.......
I think we agree on 75% of everything...maybe more....and maybe more than that...notably that Corbyn was a disaster...
And...I do think that Johnson et al are pointing (belatedly) in the right direction with Covid 19.....
The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.
Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.
Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
Not sure about that. I would be wondering how many were infected on the rescue flights rather than in China.
Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.
If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.
I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.
The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.
Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Incredibly infectious is over stating things. I believe the chance of transmission on single contact has been estimated at 5%. Both the ski chalet and the cruise ship shows that it is possible to have repeated exposure and still not catch it.
Aha! Indeed. But that picture changes dramatically if a significant proportion on the cruise ship and at the ski chalet had already had a previous iteration. Which they would have, if the previous iteration had been predominantly in the West, rather than China. But they'd still test negative, because we don't have a test that identifies antibodies.
The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.
Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.
The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.
Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.
Given her reaction I cannot imagine why the government perhaps engaged in a strategy of phasing in changes to prepare people for a bad situation coming up rather than ran around like headless chickens from the off.
I am absolutely loving "LameStream Media". It's the capital S that tips it over the top.
If I was a Democrat politician in the US, I think I'd constantly refer to my opponents as the Publican party. On the other side, I think I'd go with Lemoncrat.
The US can hit up to 80,000 flu deaths in a bad season / 4000 deaths a week. So deaths at the rate being seen are not unprecedented.
Once again, this is not the Flu. The duration of inpatient care and ventilation required for COVID19 is 5-10 times that of Flu. If we cannot meet that demand, preventable fatalities will steeply increase.
Will a vaccine be found for covid 19
I expect so. The problem is timing...
It's tricky. The modern vaccine technologies are incredible (relative to what we're used to), but the testing procedure is incredibly rigorous since a bad vaccine can easily be worse than no vaccine. More likely we get anti-virals (that may have prophylactic properties) developed that can stop a certain fraction of cases progressing to more serious symptoms, making the disease much more manageable. There are numerous ongoing clinical trials that should report in the next 4 weeks or so I think. In the short term that will be more promising I think.
Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.
If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.
I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.
The COVID-19 crisis continues to evolve, so I wanted to update you on some changes here at B&Q. Over the last 48 hours we have been working hard to create a service that focuses on providing essential products for repair and maintenance of the home. This means we can keep supplies open and give our customers the best possible service to ensure their homes are safe, warm and in working order. In order to do this in the safest possible way for our colleagues and customers, we are making some changes: • Our website, diy.com, will be our primary store, giving customers access to a range of essential products. • The Click+Collect range will be reduced to ensure we do everything we can to limit unnecessary purchases, so that our customers and colleagues are protected from needless contact. • Customers can now use our new contactless Click+Collect service from their local store. This will allow you to pick up items from an allocated parking zone and we will bring products to your car. • We are working on our home delivery service to enable us to provide a fuller product range. • Stores will remain closed to customers for browsing and purchasing. We urge you to follow all the Government’s social distancing guidelines and to shop responsibly for essential needs only. The safety of customers and colleagues remains our top priority.
I hear my local A and E is very busy - if what I hear is true some very dumb people rocking up to A and E with symptoms.
Oh dear... people partying over the past few days?
It sounds like a fair number are exhibiting Covid symptoms - they should NOT be going to A and E
Oh - I mis-read (too late!), i thought they were being taken to the hospital. That really is disappointing that people can't follow the basic instructions...
I’ve met a wonderful woman on a dating app, but I can’t meet her for months. This truly is tragic.
Can't you FaceTime?
Of course! But that’s not the same!
Bear in mind that my post was pretty tongue in cheek, if you excuse the expression, I realize this is not an actual problem in the grand scheme of things!
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
That would perhaps explain why so many people had a terrible cold in December, including me.
It would be nice to think that the 3 month cough I had from early December had granted me immunity!
"Rapper M.I.A. has revealed she is anti-vaccination and would 'choose death' over getting a coronavirus vaccination amid the ongoing pandemic.
The Paper Planes hitmaker, 44, declared her stance on vaccinations and expressed her regret at being 'made to' vaccinate her son, 11, before he started school in a series of tweets on Wednesday.
The musician, real name Mathangi Arulpragasam, wrote: 'If I have to choose the vaccine or chip I'm gonna choose death.'
NHS staff are being targeted by muggers trying to steal their identity badges so they can use them to obtain the free food and drinks being offered to doctors and nurses tackling coronavirus.
I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.
And lost
No party won the 2017 election.
There are degrees of victory. Did Labour lose the 2017 New Zealand GE? By many measures, yes, but they still got their leader in as PM so by gaining sufficient seats to form a majority with others they won it more than anyone else did. The National party got most votes and seats yet still lost the election as a result. Did the Tories win the 2017 UK GE? Not outright, but they won sufficient support and seats to remain in power and Corbyn and Labour did not win enough to gain power.
That no one won outright does not mean that no one lost, or that one did not clearly lose more than the other. Labour made good ground, but still lost. They lost in votes, they lost in seats, and they lost by not gaining power. They just plain lost.
The Tories cocked up but still came top and retained power. It was a qualified victory, one which hamstrung them for over 2 years, but it was enough of a victory.
Pretending everyone lost is based on a rather silly absolute view victory as requiring a majority.
Dyson, along with a separate consortium of manufacturers led by Airbus, is expecting the government to give it the green light to start making up to 30,000 medical ventilators from next week, after finalising plans to supply thousands of devices to help the NHS fight Covid-19.
The COVID-19 crisis continues to evolve, so I wanted to update you on some changes here at B&Q. Over the last 48 hours we have been working hard to create a service that focuses on providing essential products for repair and maintenance of the home. This means we can keep supplies open and give our customers the best possible service to ensure their homes are safe, warm and in working order. In order to do this in the safest possible way for our colleagues and customers, we are making some changes: • Our website, diy.com, will be our primary store, giving customers access to a range of essential products. • The Click+Collect range will be reduced to ensure we do everything we can to limit unnecessary purchases, so that our customers and colleagues are protected from needless contact. • Customers can now use our new contactless Click+Collect service from their local store. This will allow you to pick up items from an allocated parking zone and we will bring products to your car. • We are working on our home delivery service to enable us to provide a fuller product range. • Stores will remain closed to customers for browsing and purchasing. We urge you to follow all the Government’s social distancing guidelines and to shop responsibly for essential needs only. The safety of customers and colleagues remains our top priority.
Thanks for that. I need some things from B & Q but they have a £100 min bulk delivery
If they cancel bulk buying for delivery and charged £10 as other merchants do they could provide a very good service
Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.
I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
I think that is unfortunately true. It is refreshing to hear from a politician who speaks lucidly and with authority about Coronavirus.
The Netherlands says hi. They really are in a mess. Basically tracking UK numbers with a fraction of the population. Belgium looking dodgy also.
They're attempting the herd immunity strategy in the Netherlands, and it sounds like they are in Sweden as well, since they're not shutting bars, restaurants and schools there.
The Netherlands says hi. They really are in a mess. Basically tracking UK numbers with a fraction of the population. Belgium looking dodgy also.
They're attempting the herd immunity strategy in the Netherlands, and it sounds like they are in Sweden as well, since they're not shutting bars, restaurants and schools there.
Netherlands will be the biggest disaster in the EU. Aging population, very few beds available, highest population density. Trump will be pointing them out as an example of "socialised medicine" failing catastrophically.
- The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it. - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc. - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities. - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality. - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.
I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why: - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly - there are wildly different death rates in different countries - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did
What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
Brilliant, whether correct (or even possible) or not.
"Rapper M.I.A. has revealed she is anti-vaccination and would 'choose death' over getting a coronavirus vaccination amid the ongoing pandemic.
The Paper Planes hitmaker, 44, declared her stance on vaccinations and expressed her regret at being 'made to' vaccinate her son, 11, before he started school in a series of tweets on Wednesday.
The musician, real name Mathangi Arulpragasam, wrote: 'If I have to choose the vaccine or chip I'm gonna choose death.'
Mad.
I saw MIA headlining at The Big Chill some years ago. Quite possibly the worst act that I have ever seen live.
I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.
And lost
No party won the 2017 election.
There are degrees of victory. Did Labour lose the 2017 New Zealand GE? By many measures, yes, but they still got their leader in as PM so by gaining sufficient seats to form a majority with others they won it more than anyone else did. The National party got most votes and seats yet still lost the election as a result. Did the Tories win the 2017 UK GE? Not outright, but they won sufficient support and seats to remain in power and Corbyn and Labour did not win enough to gain power.
That no one won outright does not mean that no one lost, or that one did not clearly lose more than the other. Labour made good ground, but still lost. They lost in votes, they lost in seats, and they lost by not gaining power. They just plain lost.
The Tories cocked up but still came top and retained power. It was a qualified victory, one which hamstrung them for over 2 years, but it was enough of a victory.
Pretending everyone lost is based on a rather silly absolute view victory as requiring a majority.
I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.
And lost
No party won the 2017 election.
...but Labour lost bigger than the Tories.
And sometimes that's all you need to 'win'.
I don't dissent to great degree - but the Tory retention of office post-2017 was entirely dependant on the decision of the DUP. Had they followed the New Zealand example, they could have facilitated a minority- Labour Government. Had Milliband or Starmer then been leader , such a course might well have been followed!
I am absolutely loving "LameStream Media". It's the capital S that tips it over the top.
If I was a Democrat politician in the US, I think I'd constantly refer to my opponents as the Publican party. On the other side, I think I'd go with Lemoncrat.
“Rethuglican” is the preferred term of a lot of Dem activists.
Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.
I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
Apart from his stupidity over the junior doctors rotas, I was never anti Hunt. There have been plenty of worse Health Secs in my career. Hancock is OK too.
They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.
We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
Government fail, I am afraid. What these people are doing is rational, understandable and crucially not explicitly banned under the rules. It has always been blindingly obvious that driving to a place from which to exercise should have been banned.
Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.
I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
Apart from his stupidity over the junior doctors rotas, I was never anti Hunt. There have been plenty of worse Health Secs in my career. Hancock is OK too.
I am guessing neither Lansley or Keith Joseph were favourites.
Comments
I think we agree on 75% of everything...maybe more....and maybe more than that...notably that Corbyn was a disaster...
And...I do think that Johnson et al are pointing (belatedly) in the right direction with Covid 19.....
I'm off to bed.....
Goodnight
I know Blair is toxic now but I voted for him twice
Nice to be back on the same page, more or less
Now does the NHS have a 100% guaranteed level of resources for every possible event ?
Of course it doesn't and nor could it and for that matter nor could any of us.
Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.
All the best and keep safe
If I was a Democrat politician in the US, I think I'd constantly refer to my opponents as the Publican party. On the other side, I think I'd go with Lemoncrat.
And opponents nicking your policies only half counts.
The COVID-19 crisis continues to evolve, so I wanted to update you on some changes here at B&Q.
Over the last 48 hours we have been working hard to create a service that focuses on providing essential products for repair and maintenance of the home. This means we can keep supplies open and give our customers the best possible service to ensure their homes are safe, warm and in working order.
In order to do this in the safest possible way for our colleagues and customers, we are making some changes:
• Our website, diy.com, will be our primary store, giving customers access to a range of essential products.
• The Click+Collect range will be reduced to ensure we do everything we can to limit unnecessary purchases, so that our customers and colleagues are protected from needless contact.
• Customers can now use our new contactless Click+Collect service from their local store. This will allow you to pick up items from an allocated parking zone and we will bring products to your car.
• We are working on our home delivery service to enable us to provide a fuller product range.
• Stores will remain closed to customers for browsing and purchasing.
We urge you to follow all the Government’s social distancing guidelines and to shop responsibly for essential needs only. The safety of customers and colleagues remains our top priority.
Oh - I mis-read (too late!), i thought they were being taken to the hospital. That really is disappointing that people can't follow the basic instructions...
https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20
They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.
Bear in mind that my post was pretty tongue in cheek, if you excuse the expression, I realize this is not an actual problem in the grand scheme of things!
The aim is to be in Government - if you form a government you have won.
Labour could not, they lost
"Rapper M.I.A. has revealed she is anti-vaccination and would 'choose death' over getting a coronavirus vaccination amid the ongoing pandemic.
The Paper Planes hitmaker, 44, declared her stance on vaccinations and expressed her regret at being 'made to' vaccinate her son, 11, before he started school in a series of tweets on Wednesday.
The musician, real name Mathangi Arulpragasam, wrote: 'If I have to choose the vaccine or chip I'm gonna choose death.'
Mad.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/nhs-staff-warned-to-hide-id-after-spate-of-targeted-muggings
That no one won outright does not mean that no one lost, or that one did not clearly lose more than the other. Labour made good ground, but still lost. They lost in votes, they lost in seats, and they lost by not gaining power. They just plain lost.
The Tories cocked up but still came top and retained power. It was a qualified victory, one which hamstrung them for over 2 years, but it was enough of a victory.
Pretending everyone lost is based on a rather silly absolute view victory as requiring a majority.
Or more succinctly And sometimes that's all you need to 'win'.
Dyson, along with a separate consortium of manufacturers led by Airbus, is expecting the government to give it the green light to start making up to 30,000 medical ventilators from next week, after finalising plans to supply thousands of devices to help the NHS fight Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/airbus-dyson-firms-waiting-uk-green-light-produce-ventilators-coronavirus
About that opening up the economy in 18 days Mr Trump................
If they cancel bulk buying for delivery and charged £10 as other merchants do they could provide a very good service
We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
The arrows are that way because they're for people overtaking.
Did you not learn the different types of lines from the highway code?