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SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Biden’s campaign is attacking Trump over his handling of the coronavirus epidemic

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    According the Guardian, the 10,000 unit Dyson order is for what they call the The CoVent, which is a totally new type ventilator. Sounds like Dyson think they have got a new business opportunity, as they want to also sell it around the world.

    I hope that isn't just it. AFAIK, the G-Tech one was very simple the medical experts gave it the ok and the guy was claiming he could make 1,000s of them quickly.

    I have to say if I need one, I think I would definitely prefer the Dyson one than that Oxford University design were showing off today. They might claim to be able to make 5,000 a week of them, but we know what shoddy work they are usually responsible for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    According the Guardian, the 10,000 unit Dyson order is for what they call the The CoVent, which is a totally new type ventilator. Sounds like Dyson think they have got a new business opportunity, as they want to also sell it around the world.

    I hope that isn't just it. AFAIK, the G-Tech one was very simple the medical experts gave it the ok and the guy was claiming he could make 1,000s of them quickly.

    I have to say if I need one, I think I would definitely prefer the Dyson one than that Oxford University design were showing off today. They might claim to be able to make 5,000 a week of them, but we know what shoddy work they are usually responsible for.

    At Fenland Poly, they are too busy trying to report to Moscow(*) to actually do science. Unlike Oxford.

    *To be fair they may not realise that Communism is over, yet
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    But the likes of obesity and diabetes are serious risk factors. Something America is #1 in....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    I see twitter have decided that only 28 people dying in England is evidence of a massive government cover-up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited March 2020

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.

    It's fascinating how Covid 19 spread....after it passed into community spreading...the virus was going to catch up with the world....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    I see twitter have decided that only 28 people dying in England is evidence of a massive government cover-up.

    Obviously - Boris is personally hiding the dead in the same place as the 4 figures of dead people from Grenfell Towers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Dr Fox linked to a paper that had a small sample that showed their cohort was much more non-smokers, but I also saw a more recent paper that had the opposite.

    I am no doctor (in the medical sense), but logically it seems very unlikely that an activity that screws your lungs wouldn't make you worse off against a respiratory disease.

    And the suggestion with Northern Italy contributory factors include shit air quality and high levels of smoking.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    According the Guardian, the 10,000 unit Dyson order is for what they call the The CoVent, which is a totally new type ventilator. Sounds like Dyson think they have got a new business opportunity, as they want to also sell it around the world.

    I hope that isn't just it. AFAIK, the G-Tech one was very simple the medical experts gave it the ok and the guy was claiming he could make 1,000s of them quickly.

    I have to say if I need one, I think I would definitely prefer the Dyson one than that Oxford University design were showing off today. They might claim to be able to make 5,000 a week of them, but we know what shoddy work they are usually responsible for.

    If I get the virus I want to breathe, I don’t want my insides pumped to twice their normal size and then sucked down to nothing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    tyson said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.

    It's fascinating how Covid 19 spread....after it passed into community spreading...the virus was going to catch up with the world....
    But, may mean far more of us have had it than first thought.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    I see twitter have decided that only 28 people dying in England is evidence of a massive government cover-up.

    Obviously - Boris is personally hiding the dead in the same place as the 4 figures of dead people from Grenfell Towers.
    Boris the Butcher is obviously failing miserably at his desired aim of killing off all the Gammon Brexiteer oldies...that's the secret plan right?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    According the Guardian, the 10,000 unit Dyson order is for what they call the The CoVent, which is a totally new type ventilator. Sounds like Dyson think they have got a new business opportunity, as they want to also sell it around the world.

    I hope that isn't just it. AFAIK, the G-Tech one was very simple the medical experts gave it the ok and the guy was claiming he could make 1,000s of them quickly.

    I have to say if I need one, I think I would definitely prefer the Dyson one than that Oxford University design were showing off today. They might claim to be able to make 5,000 a week of them, but we know what shoddy work they are usually responsible for.

    If I get the virus I want to breathe, I don’t want my insides pumped to twice their normal size and then sucked down to nothing.
    Are you suggesting that perhaps the Dyson model might be a tad overpowered?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    edited March 2020

    I see twitter have decided that only 28 people dying in England is evidence of a massive government cover-up.

    Obviously - Boris is personally hiding the dead in the same place as the 4 figures of dead people from Grenfell Towers.
    Boris the Butcher is obviously failing miserably at his desired aim of killing off all the Gammon Brexiteer oldies...that's the secret plan right?
    Komrade, with deviationist thinking like this, you will never get your MaoMentum merit badge.

    He is obviously succeeding. The lower the published numbers, the higher the ReallyReal numbers are... simples.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Great ad from Biden. Although, I have laid him a little today to balance my book.

    Still, Harris is 310 for POTUS. Crazy. DYOR.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Thanks for the link

    Carry on Up the White House....

    he comes across like he's bladdered tonight...he can hardly talk
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    Misread above, ignore.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Non smokers are less likely to die from it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Pretty sure the science experts will be unhappy with tonight's headlines.

    A lot of 'could' involved and headlines about testing kits in days.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    God Trump is now on about NATO and the EU.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    Ranting about the EU ripping off the US. If he is re-elected it is the end of US hegemony.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    tyson said:

    Thanks for the link

    Carry on Up the White House....

    he comes across like he's bladdered tonight...he can hardly talk
    "We've been treated very unfairly by the European Union..."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Did one of the boffins today say that the death rate is 1 in 1000?

    Thought I caught something on the news but wasn't sure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    No not really. The vast majority of people in most countries are quite decent. Media loves the outliers.
  • Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so
    It would be really great if we can spin this into something more long term.
  • Joe Biden can appear presidential and statesman-like in brief clips and small doses. This is a great ad because it doesn't show him at all.
  • tyson said:

    Thanks for the link

    Carry on Up the White House....

    he comes across like he's bladdered tonight...he can hardly talk
    "We've been treated very unfairly by the European Union..."
    He is a very real danger to the American people and the rest of us
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Wow Trump is really on one this evening. We are now onto the Fake News Media.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Non smokers are less likely to die from it
    The worst chest infection I ever got was caught from sharing a spliff at a party at Fenland Poly after the Freshers varsity athletics meeting. So smoking and being in Cambridge are risk factors definitely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139

    Ranting about the EU ripping off the US. If he is re-elected it is the end of US hegemony.
    The US is no longer the sole superpower, China and the EU and even India are challenging it for that position.
    However as this virus shows China also needs to be challenged by the West to improve its sanitation and reduce its secrecy
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    "Epidemiology? You get an ology - you're a scientist!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so
    It would be really great if we can spin this into something more long term.
    Cameron's Big Society was a fine idea. The massive flaw was at the same time as he bigged it up and encouraged it as a policy, another part of his government was slashing the financial support to voluntary organisations who could coordinate it.

    It happened to my local volunteer hub.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Wow Trump is really on one this evening. We are now onto the Fake News Media.

    Is that like Post-Post-Post Truth?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    Have you got any toilet rolls? We are running low.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Joe Biden can appear presidential and statesman-like in brief clips and small doses. This is a great ad because it doesn't show him at all.

    Boris gives classes on how to win elections?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Trump struggling tonight - starts to boast when on the defensive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    And now he is off onto we test the most, we have the greatest test, the likes of Idaho doing great, no need to test there.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Ranting about the EU ripping off the US. If he is re-elected it is the end of US hegemony.
    Has Pence got the most deadpan face in the history of politics?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    And now he is off onto we test the most, we have the greatest test, the likes of Idaho doing great, no need to test there.

    Pretty sure there are some farmers in the mid-west who are doing great, too. Mainly because no one goes to see them. :p
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,317
    Thanks all for your kind comments on the previous thread. I have given myself a stern talking to and will get back to my usual glass half full approach tomorrow. Plenty of people far worse off than me.

    Before I go to bed I just want to wish the very best to @Foxy and to thank him and his colleagues for all the work they do. Glad to hear that @GideonWise and @MaxPB are on the mend. And thoughts and prayers for @Charles.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    What is this thing about having the flag in the background of every photo and tv appearance? He’s upping the ante here with two.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    The wall...big beautiful wall....

    It is greatest hits evening.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Trump's speech when he was sworn in as POTUS talked about American carnage.

    Who knew, he meant he was going to organise it himself?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    What is this thing about having the flag in the background of every photo and tv appearance? He’s upping the ante here with two.
    Utterly shocked that the PM has flags in his office.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    Really? No big screen conference call? not even FaceTime or Skype?

    Fake photograph.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I would love to know what the only adult on the stage, Mnuchin, is thinking.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so

    I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?

    I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    What is this thing about having the flag in the background of every photo and tv appearance? He’s upping the ante here with two.
    Utterly shocked that the PM has flags in his office.
    How dare he talk to her Maj with his hand in his pocket!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Trump's speech when he was sworn in as POTUS talked about American carnage.

    Who knew, he meant he was going to organise it himself?

    He really is a force of nature....

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    What is this thing about having the flag in the background of every photo and tv appearance? He’s upping the ante here with two.
    Utterly shocked that the PM has flags in his office.
    How dare he talk to her Maj with his hand in his pocket!
    Look, just be glad he has his shirt tucked in. :p
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    The wall...big beautiful wall....

    It is greatest hits evening.

    Steve Bannon said (after he was dumped) that the Trump presidency was not going to end well. As in really not well.

    God knows how they will get him out of the oval office, but many people are going to lose their lives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Trump...WHO sided with China...WHO biased towards China...then massive hospital pass Fauci.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    Fly fishing by E R Windsor.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Dr Fox linked to a paper that had a small sample that showed their cohort was much more non-smokers, but I also saw a more recent paper that had the opposite.

    I am no doctor (in the medical sense), but logically it seems very unlikely that an activity that screws your lungs wouldn't make you worse off against a respiratory disease.

    And the suggestion with Northern Italy contributory factors include shit air quality and high levels of smoking.
    The smoking rate in Spain in 2015 was 29.1% compared to 23.8% in Italy.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence_of_tobacco_use
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

    I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

    https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    The wall...big beautiful wall....

    It is greatest hits evening.

    162 miles built.....out of 1,945 total.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    You really hope the people making the decisions behind the scenes in the US are just by-passing Trump.

    And back onto the stock market....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    What is this thing about having the flag in the background of every photo and tv appearance? He’s upping the ante here with two.
    Utterly shocked that the PM has flags in his office.
    How dare he talk to her Maj with his hand in his pocket!
    Queen: "I just need to check on my Prince Philip"

    Bozo: "I'm just checking on my Prince Albert"
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

    I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

    https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19


    Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    tyson said:

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so

    I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?

    I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
    It’s a crime on a par with the lack of protective gear for patrols in Iraq under Blair. Families took that into court, and they will do here.

    Not voting government back in after how they mishandled virus, will play on doorsteps at next election, like Iraq did in 2005.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

    I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

    https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19


    Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?
    Didn't they just get 15 million masks and 25 million gloves?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

    Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    Meanwhile...

    twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1242940486324834304

    I have seen less conspiracy theory in a mash-up between Alex Jones and David Icke output than her twitter timeline.

    I am surprised nobody from the Guardian has had a word.
  • tyson said:

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so

    I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?

    I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
    The way you attack my support for Boris and HMG but to be honest Tyson I do care about your family, indeed for everyone on the front line, and please accept that I do not want to fall out with you or anyone to be honest

    I hope your family get the PPE they need and just a little personal point, my dear niece and her husband have both gone down with covid 19 and are making a slow and painful recovery
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Erm, isn't that the sort of things governments do... plan for the worst?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    I keep misreading her name as Carol Codswallop. (I don't expect that's an original observation).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    If it's absolute deaths on the y axis, shouldn't we be looking at EEA +UK vs US?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

    I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

    https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19


    Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?
    Didn't they just get 15 million masks and 25 million gloves?
    As of today...and I carry on bleating on about this...my family are working in NHS wards and do not feel safe...

    I have a good friend in St Thomas's...I will name this...who is working on a respiratory ward who is given the right equipment....

    I was surprised too hear Floater telling me that Fox has said that all is well



  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Spain line starts later, and is higher. Correct me where I am wrong. But that means if this was chart of mountains in a grand tour this tells you Col d’Spain is steeper?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,878
    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    Cases in Lombardy in November?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    Yes that was the finding in one of the early Coronavirus series from China. Only 15% who were treated had a history of smoking, rather lower than the Chinese average.

    I think though it was looking at younger people with infections. It was cited by the Singapore University resources.

    https://twitter.com/ubcprez/status/1239990410736357376?s=19


    Floater posted before that you have confirmed that the PPE equipment is OK for NHS frontline staff....is that correct?
    I wouldn't go as far as that. We have plenty of gloves, masks and aprons at Leicester. There are shortages of FFP3 masks and of the long sleeved gowns. The biggest practical issue is the ability to identify the patients that we need to use it on.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    Has Gov.uk still not made its official announcement of UK cases for today?

    BBC doesn't appear to have the figures though others do.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    tyson said:

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so

    I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?

    I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
    The way you attack my support for Boris and HMG but to be honest Tyson I do care about your family, indeed for everyone on the front line, and please accept that I do not want to fall out with you or anyone to be honest

    I hope your family get the PPE they need and just a little personal point, my dear niece and her husband have both gone down with covid 19 and are making a slow and painful recovery
    I am really, really sorry to hear about your family being ill....this is truly a terrible time that is impacting on all us in some way........


  • Nick Watt looking slightly peaky on Newsnight. Hope he’s okay!

    Or maybe all the makeup team are self isolating!
    I believe they are now doing their own makeup
  • tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Over 500,000 people have now volunteered. Really amazing to see.

    Even beyond Cavid Cameron's dreams of a big society

    It speaks volumns for our country and how love trumps hate

    And I think this is the start of a much more compassionate country, at least lets hope so

    I'm very curious...why do you think I was making a political point when I was querying NHS staff being unprotected?

    I would have been equally appalled about the equipment members of my family have been given during a Labour Govt...probably more so because I would have expected a Labour Govt to have known better....
    The way you attack my support for Boris and HMG but to be honest Tyson I do care about your family, indeed for everyone on the front line, and please accept that I do not want to fall out with you or anyone to be honest

    I hope your family get the PPE they need and just a little personal point, my dear niece and her husband have both gone down with covid 19 and are making a slow and painful recovery
    I am really, really sorry to hear about your family being ill....this is truly a terrible time that is impacting on all us in some way........


    It is Tyson and I am sorry if I upset you
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    That would perhaps explain why so many people had a terrible cold in December, including me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Newsnight having a Trump over ventilators.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ...and the winner is... Rebecca Long Bailey??

    33/1
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    That doesn't look like a particularly secure phone, Your Majesty.

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1242896686122504192/photo/2

    What is this thing about having the flag in the background of every photo and tv appearance? He’s upping the ante here with two.
    Utterly shocked that the PM https://cdn.britannica.com/65/134565-050-109B1A28/David-Beatty.jpg flags in his office.
    How dare he talk to her Maj with his hand in his pocket!
    Queen: "I just need to check on my Prince Philip"

    Bozo: "I'm just checking on my Prince Albert"
    Hands in pockets always make me think of this chap -

    https://cdn.britannica.com/65/134565-050-109B1A28/David-Beatty.jpg
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    There is a Stanford report out tonight which supports much of this. I don’t think I can post it as it’s (£) and might get Mike into trouble. But I’ll quote a line below...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    Incredibly infectious is over stating things. I believe the chance of transmission on single contact has been estimated at 5%. Both the ski chalet and the cruise ship shows that it is possible to have repeated exposure and still not catch it.
This discussion has been closed.