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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited March 2020
    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

    Looks like a car park, at least judging by the lines.
    Nah, look at the arrows in the road. Presumably of course it’s a far more mundane explanation of an inverted image.
    No, it's a car park. :p

    Did you not learn the different types of lines from the highway code? ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Good to see the Queen using a real telephone to speak to Prince Charles on the front cover of the Telegraph, not of these stupid new things.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited March 2020

    alex_ said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

    The two lanes of the road are to their left. They're parked.
    Don’t think so. Two lanes on the right, one on the left. Middle lane way two narrow otherwise. But as I say, almost certainly an inverted image.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Hunt on Peston now.

    Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.

    I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
    When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
    Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
    Apart from his stupidity over the junior doctors rotas, I was never anti Hunt. There have been plenty of worse Health Secs in my career. Hancock is OK too.
    I am guessing neither Lansley or Keith Joseph were favourites.
    The worst was Hewitt, with Milburn a close second.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Andy_JS said:

    Good to see the Queen using a real telephone to speak to Prince Charles on the front cover of the Telegraph, not of these stupid new things.

    Bet it has one of those rotary dials, too. :D
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

    The two lanes of the road are to their left. They're parked.
    Don’t think so. Two lanes on the right, one on the left. Middle lane way two narrow otherwise. But as I say, almost certainly an inverted image.
    It isn't, and if they were driving they would be so ridiculously close to one another for a road like that. The road markings are a dead giveaway.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    On Corbyn, he lost the C2 vote, and some of the DE vote but gained amongst the C1 vote, particularly young C1's.

    Then he lost the C1 vote as well. That's not very good, is it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

    Looks like a car park, at least judging by the lines.
    Nah, look at the arrows in the road. Presumably of course it’s a far more mundane explanation of an inverted image.
    Look at the Mazda. The steering wheel is on the right side but there's no driver.

    The arrows are that way because they're for people overtaking.
    Did the famous nudge unit model what happens when you allow one trip for exercise per day?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Hunt on Peston now.

    Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.

    I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
    When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
    Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
    Apart from his stupidity over the junior doctors rotas, I was never anti Hunt. There have been plenty of worse Health Secs in my career. Hancock is OK too.
    I am guessing neither Lansley or Keith Joseph were favourites.
    The worst was Hewitt, with Milburn a close second.
    I can't imagine Dobbo set the world on fire either.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

    Looks like a car park, at least judging by the lines.
    Nah, look at the arrows in the road. Presumably of course it’s a far more mundane explanation of an inverted image.
    Look at the Mazda. The steering wheel is on the right side but there's no driver.

    The arrows are that way because they're for people overtaking.
    Ok think you’re right.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    Why are they all driving on the wrong side of the road?

    The two lanes of the road are to their left. They're parked.
    Don’t think so. Two lanes on the right, one on the left. Middle lane way two narrow otherwise. But as I say, almost certainly an inverted image.
    It is a car park. You can tell this from the shorter white lines. The end.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Now about the media being innumerate....Remember the FT / Oxford Uni report about 50% having had it, now Sky News talk have spun this in upto 66%...by tomorrow it will be 110%.

    More seriously this is really dangerous, it is giving people the message well probably most people have already got it, therefore why are we locking down...lovely sunny day out...I'm off out.

    Coronavirus: Do two-thirds of us already have it?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bTF0_GUsRg
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Hunt on Peston now.

    Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.

    I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
    When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
    Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
    Apart from his stupidity over the junior doctors rotas, I was never anti Hunt. There have been plenty of worse Health Secs in my career. Hancock is OK too.
    I am guessing neither Lansley or Keith Joseph were favourites.
    The worst was Hewitt, with Milburn a close second.
    I can't imagine Dobbo set the world on fire either.
    I quite liked Dobson...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848

    Good bye Corbyn. You wrecked the labour party
    I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.
    And lost
    No party won the 2017 election.
    Remind me who formed the Government
    That was courtesy of the DUP.
    So not Labour then ... who therefore lost
    They all lost - ditto in 2010 .
    Cameron became PM in 2010.
    Courtesy of Nick Clegg.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    Government fail, I am afraid. What these people are doing is rational, understandable and crucially not explicitly banned under the rules. It has always been blindingly obvious that driving to a place from which to exercise should have been banned.

    For all the outrage from people ignoring rules, I doubt the net sum of this is actually going to have much impact on Corona virus stats. Even if there is a risk, the vast majority of the population are strongly obeying the rules (to the extent necessary anyway).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Monkeys said:

    On Corbyn, he lost the C2 vote, and some of the DE vote but gained amongst the C1 vote, particularly young C1's.

    Then he lost the C1 vote as well. That's not very good, is it?

    I guess what I'm saying is, he brought the Labour party to the Golgafrincham B-Ark, but they were doomed from the start.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    Floater said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Meanwhile, over at the we actually won the 2019 GE camp...

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1242795428283854848

    Good bye Corbyn. You wrecked the labour party
    I was never a Corbynite - but at both the elections he fought as Leader, he outpolled Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown.
    And lost
    No party won the 2017 election.
    Remind me who formed the Government
    That was courtesy of the DUP.
    So not Labour then ... who therefore lost
    They all lost - ditto in 2010 .
    Cameron became PM in 2010.
    Courtesy of Nick Clegg.
    Gordon Brown lost his premiership.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753538285023232
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    The government have actually said a number of time about this. Boris said very clearly the other day about outside doesn't make you immune etc.

    Its not true about the "one walk a day" only being here. Other countries at least at the start of their lockdown had provisions for going out and doing some exercise.

    It isn't people don't understand this, they just think they can bend the rules. Nobody gets from stay inside, only come out for absolutely essential things like food, do not make non essential trips and you are allowed out for a short walk, run or cycle, to well that means it ok to do a day trip to the peak district.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Good to see the Queen using a real telephone to speak to Prince Charles on the front cover of the Telegraph, not of these stupid new things.

    Prince Charles is in Balmoral self-isolating with Covid-19, which is far safer than self-isolating in the U.S. Virgin Islands with Virginia-17.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    I don’t think there’s much of a risk. Certainly not 100 people wandering about the Peak District! 1,000 or 10,000 maybe. But the issue here is probably that the more people push the boundaries, the more the emergency services have to waste time and resources enforcing it. Fortunately it is easy for the media to find examples of a few people ignoring the advice and using it to extrapolate to the entire country. In reality the numbers flouting the rules are small.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited March 2020

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    I believe restricting liberty is anathema for Johnson, which under normal circumstances is admirable. Being likeable should be subordinate to being firm.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    alex_ said:

    I don’t think there’s much of a risk. Certainly not 100 people wandering about the Peak District! 1,000 or 10,000 maybe. But the issue here is probably that the more people push the boundaries, the more the emergency services have to waste time and resources enforcing it. Fortunately it is easy for the media to find examples of a few people ignoring the advice and using it to extrapolate to the entire country. In reality the numbers flouting the rules are small.

    There is another issue. You drive your car for say an hour there and an hour back. Now you need to get petrol, so you have to stop at a garage. Now you are adding yet another unnecessary interaction with the world and one where lots of people will have gone through touching the pumps and the card machine.

    And what happens if you break down, now you have to call out the AA.

    The advice is clear everything you do should be about minimising your interaction with the outside world and other people.
  • Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    All the car parks in our national parks are closed and the police are active

    But that is nothing compared to the fury of us North Walians

    Clear messages across the communities, expletives ending with 'home'
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Mexican

    Yeah, just catching up on Peston.

    Can’t see the attraction with Rayner. She has authenticity but not much else. I would have gone for Rosena.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
    So what's your answer ?

    Ban people from entering National Parks ? Ban people from driving from their homes ? Ban people from leaving their homes ?

    Whatever it is it leads to a reduction in opportunities for the majority because the stupid, the stubborn and the selfish never think and never learn.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    edited March 2020

    Mexican

    Yeah, just catching up on Peston.

    Can’t see the attraction with Rayner. She has authenticity but not much else. I would have gone for Rosena.

    ... and a Doctor to boot I believe.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Another thing is, the more you start saying such and such is ok under particular circumstances e.g. you tell the public its ok to drive say within 30mins somewhere as long as less than 10 cars there, the more people start from there and then stretch the elastic even further. 30 min drives soon become well an hour isn't much different is it. Well there are only 20 people in the car park.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
    So what's your answer ?

    Ban people from entering National Parks ? Ban people from driving from their homes ? Ban people from leaving their homes ?

    Whatever it is it leads to a reduction in opportunities for the majority because the stupid, the stubborn and the selfish never think and never learn.
    Our national parks are closed and policed
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    Do we know how far these people have driven. I live in the middle of the peak district, and can walk into it from home, but it does involve a brief walk through town. I must admit I'd contemplated driving across town and parking up the other side just so I don't have to walk through town... I'll probably go for a walk tomorrow, starting from home if driving is going to cause trouble, but it's almost certainly actually higher risk (although I suspect that the risk outdoors, in an area on the low end of case numbers is pretty low anyway).
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100



    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    I believe restricting liberty is anathema for Johnson, which under normal circumstances is admirable. Being likeable should be subordinate to being firm.
    I'm not sure Boris is doing this to be likeable. I think he knows he has to carry people with him and he is conscious of the confliction this situation presents.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
    So what's your answer ?

    Ban people from entering National Parks ? Ban people from driving from their homes ? Ban people from leaving their homes ?

    Whatever it is it leads to a reduction in opportunities for the majority because the stupid, the stubborn and the selfish never think and never learn.
    Yes, yes and yes, with limited exceptions to each ban. I am afraid that is how it works. By way of analogy the large majority of gun owners in the US are perfectly safe to be allowed to own any number of guns, which doesn't stop me thinking gun ownership should be controlled.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited March 2020

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-patient-zero-east-sussex-family-may-have-infected-coronavirus/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    alterego said:



    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    I believe restricting liberty is anathema for Johnson, which under normal circumstances is admirable. Being likeable should be subordinate to being firm.
    I'm not sure Boris is doing this to be likeable. I think he knows he has to carry people with him and he is conscious of the confliction this situation presents.
    Although I generally think Johnson is doing OK so far, there are still a couple of mixed message loose end issues. He needs to cut the 'matiness' and crack the whip over who works and who doesn't and where we can and can't go for our daily exercise.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486



    Mexican

    Yeah, just catching up on Peston.

    Can’t see the attraction with Rayner. She has authenticity but not much else. I would have gone for Rosena.

    ... and a Doctor to boot I believe.
    Indeed. I should have said Dr Rosena, MD!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
    So what's your answer ?

    Ban people from entering National Parks ? Ban people from driving from their homes ? Ban people from leaving their homes ?

    Whatever it is it leads to a reduction in opportunities for the majority because the stupid, the stubborn and the selfish never think and never learn.
    Yes, yes and yes, with limited exceptions to each ban. I am afraid that is how it works. By way of analogy the large majority of gun owners in the US are perfectly safe to be allowed to own any number of guns, which doesn't stop me thinking gun ownership should be controlled.
    Locking people down into their homes and not letting them out leads to other social and health problems.

    And ultimately governments have to govern with consent in this country.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    I think it’s possible we peak within a fortnight. But, we shall see.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.

    They could all have gone shopping for bikes in Halfords and Plod wouldn't have troubled them.
    I think the problem here (and in parks) is that people think that the virus isn't caught much in fresh air. Tjhey correctly think you probably can't catch it inside your own car. So dfriving to the peak District and having a nice walk seems compliant with the Government's "one walk a day" policy.

    When they get there, they find 100 other people had the same idea, and at that point the 2 metre rule become impractical. But having gone to the trouble of getting there they don't want to just head back, so they hope for the best.

    What's needed is a clear statement that driving to a spot where many other people will gather is against the rules. If they wanted to drive to somewhere obscure that almost nobody else would fancy, perhaps that'd be OK. But the basic problem is that the "one walk a day" idea is completely unenforceable. AFAIK, only Britain is even trying to make it work.
    The government has been unlucky that the start of the lockdown has conincided with a warm spell. As the weather warms more and more people will start to ignore it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    I think it’s possible we peak within a fortnight. But, we shall see.
    God I hope so. I really dislike working from home now that I have to do it full time. :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    Well when the government finally get the fancy anti-body kits we will probably find out.

    There was a report showing documents that claimed to show a case in Wuhan where an individual presented to healthcare professionals in early November, which means that person must have been infected most likely at the start of November.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Just imagine the fallout if it is discovered that 80% of the population has had it, and all of these lockdowns and economic damage have been a waste of time.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
    So what's your answer ?

    Ban people from entering National Parks ? Ban people from driving from their homes ? Ban people from leaving their homes ?

    Whatever it is it leads to a reduction in opportunities for the majority because the stupid, the stubborn and the selfish never think and never learn.
    Yes, yes and yes, with limited exceptions to each ban. I am afraid that is how it works. By way of analogy the large majority of gun owners in the US are perfectly safe to be allowed to own any number of guns, which doesn't stop me thinking gun ownership should be controlled.
    Locking people down into their homes and not letting them out leads to other social and health problems.

    And ultimately governments have to govern with consent in this country.
    Yes*3 too. FfS we can spend a few weeks at home without turning into criminals or invalids, and if it saves our lives, it's worth it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570

    Hunt on Peston now.

    Very smart, he knows his subject and is talking cogently about Covid-19.

    I thought he had some very good ideas early on e.g. about running a skeleton school just for key workers.
    When he was Secretary of State for Health, I though he was an absolute dick! Iwas wrong, the guy is wasted on the back benches.
    Hunt (at Health and to some extent Foreign Office) reminds me of Gove (at Education and Environment) in many ways. Very smart, very up on his brief and genuinely passionate about it. But despite doing a lot of hard yards to get mastery over the subject matter, didn't manage to gain and hold the trust of the people at the coalface (at least at Health, not sure how popular he was with the diplomats!).
    Gove at Environment did actually manage to gain the trust of people at the coal face - more importantly on both sides of the fence; farming/industry and environmental organisations. There was a lot of disappointment on all sides when he was moved on.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    Just imagine the fallout if it is discovered that 80% of the population has had it, and all of these lockdowns and economic damage have been a waste of time.

    I think Eadric would be lynched.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Talking of innumerate...Daily Mail headline...

    Is it working? UK records 43 coronavirus deaths in past 24 hours compared to 87 yesterday... and new infections level out

    I will make a bold prediction in a week it will be

    Its not working! UK records highest number of deaths in a day
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    I think it’s possible we peak within a fortnight. But, we shall see.
    God I hope so. I really dislike working from home now that I have to do it full time. :p
    Ha! Try to get used to it. Think it will be midsummer before anyone goes into the office again. Did you not WFH much before?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LucyJones said:

    Some people still not getting the message,

    https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1242753532362739713?s=20

    They seem to think this is like the big holiday when you were at school.


    We're all going to be confined to our homes all the time if this kind of thing carries on.
    The stupid, the stubborn and the selfish.

    There's no shortage of countryside to walk in outside the Peak District but going to it would require a moment of original thought.
    But that yields a paradox that if one of those drivers has the appropriate thought he is virtuous, but if he does but the others do too he is at fault, for reasons beyond his control. Which is why state intervention is desirable. Nudging is not enough, just as you don't merely nudge people in the direction of driving on the left.
    So what's your answer ?

    Ban people from entering National Parks ? Ban people from driving from their homes ? Ban people from leaving their homes ?

    Whatever it is it leads to a reduction in opportunities for the majority because the stupid, the stubborn and the selfish never think and never learn.
    Yes, yes and yes, with limited exceptions to each ban. I am afraid that is how it works. By way of analogy the large majority of gun owners in the US are perfectly safe to be allowed to own any number of guns, which doesn't stop me thinking gun ownership should be controlled.
    Locking people down into their homes and not letting them out leads to other social and health problems.

    And ultimately governments have to govern with consent in this country.
    Yes*3 too. FfS we can spend a few weeks at home without turning into criminals or invalids, and if it saves our lives, it's worth it.
    But not everyone has the same risk/return and cost/benefit situation as others.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Just imagine the fallout if it is discovered that 80% of the population has had it, and all of these lockdowns and economic damage have been a waste of time.

    I think Eadric would be lynched.
    Surprised he hasn't by the locals in his newly adopted seaside bolt-hole.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    I think it’s possible we peak within a fortnight. But, we shall see.
    God I hope so. I really dislike working from home now that I have to do it full time. :p
    Ha! Try to get used to it. Think it will be midsummer before anyone goes into the office again. Did you not WFH much before?
    I think it's okay once or twice a week, but not full time. Good to interact with colleagues in person, rather than remotely. Also easier to get into the zone at work.
  • Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Gates just given an interview,

    How we must respond to the COVID-19 pandemic | Bill Gates

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.

    High chance of something going wrong relative to most trips, so I'd also go no.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.

    I'd also say no. The advice is "Only go outside for food, health reasons or work (where this absolutely cannot be done from home)".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.

    I say no, as although obviously you want your daughter to learn to drive, at this moment in time it is not absolutely necessary. Also you are using petrol, so need to go the petrol station to fill up, an extra unnecessary interaction. And if anything goes wrong, you will have to call the AA / RAC.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    More or Less — Coronavirus special.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gwy8
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    I think it’s possible we peak within a fortnight. But, we shall see.
    God I hope so. I really dislike working from home now that I have to do it full time. :p
    Ha! Try to get used to it. Think it will be midsummer before anyone goes into the office again. Did you not WFH much before?
    I think it's okay once or twice a week, but not full time. Good to interact with colleagues in person, rather than remotely. Also easier to get into the zone at work.
    I’d go 3 days WFH 2 office, if I had the choice. I don’t, because I don’t have a desk in our new (smaller) office anymore so it’s 4/1. Motivation not a problem though - in fact I am far more productive at home. But I do miss seeing colleagues and having the odd pint after work.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.

    Best leave it a few weeks.
  • Thanks all. I will report back to SWMBO suggesting we wait for now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "How different countries are reacting to the COVID-19 risk and their governments’ responses

    Researchers at the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication spent the weekend surveying people's attitudes towards the risk of coronavirus, and their governments’ reactions.
    Here, Dr Alexandra Freeman takes us through data collected from the UK and US at the end of last week, and Australia, Mexico, Spain, Germany and Italy over the weekend (21-22 March)."

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/wintoncovid1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    That would perhaps explain why so many people had a terrible cold in December, including me.
    It would be nice to think that the 3 month cough I had from early December had granted me immunity!
    Had exactly that too.

    We (wife and I) got it in early December, from an Italian friend who came to stay. (No, she is not in the leather industry....) Horrible hacking dry cough at night - hadn't had such a bad cough for decades before that. Probably not it, probably coincidence. Prevented me from going to see my mother before she passed on at Christmas. But whatever it was, I couldn't risk passing it on to the residential home she was in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.

    Best leave it a few weeks.
    It's not like there's any driving tests anyway.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649

    Now about the media being innumerate....Remember the FT / Oxford Uni report about 50% having had it, now Sky News talk have spun this in upto 66%...by tomorrow it will be 110%.

    More seriously this is really dangerous, it is giving people the message well probably most people have already got it, therefore why are we locking down...lovely sunny day out...I'm off out.

    Coronavirus: Do two-thirds of us already have it?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bTF0_GUsRg

    I’m getting concerned about the amount of people who have convinced themselves that they’ve already had the virus. Given the amount of different things flying around in school, which I pick up far too often, these are very likely to have been something else. I had a bug before Christmas that knocked me out for days, a weird stomach cramp that cropped up in February, another stomach bug a few weeks ago and the week after, what I presume was a really bad cold, for which I was told to self isolate.

    From what I know about this virus, none of these were it. Maybe all these tales are just different viruses and people are just desperate to convince themselves that they are now immune. Dangerous, though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Question: is it reasonable to take the youngest daughter out for a driving lesson on quiet roads with no stops, simply returning home. No interaction with anyone? My wife says yes, I say no.

    Yes. Full send though.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcL1H8t6qTo
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    That would perhaps explain why so many people had a terrible cold in December, including me.
    It would be nice to think that the 3 month cough I had from early December had granted me immunity!
    Had exactly that too.

    We (wife and I) got it in early December, from an Italian friend who came to stay. (No, she is not in the leather industry....) Horrible hacking dry cough at night - hadn't had such a bad cough for decades before that. Probably not it, probably coincidence. Prevented me from going to see my mother before she passed on at Christmas. But whatever it was, I couldn't risk passing it on to the residential home she was in.
    I had a slight fever, bad dry cough, and horrendously achy joints (in retrospect the joints were so painful that I should have seen someone) about a month ago, followed soon after by a feeling that made breathing seem like it was being done through two thick straws. I had been in close contact with someone that had been to Milan a week and a bit before. Luckily none of my family or housemates subsequently got ill.

    I'm in young and (relatively) fit, so it's extremely possible that that week was me having coronavirus, but given the time was unfortunately far more likely to be the flu. A lot of people have been knocked over by a bad flu in the past few months, so if this theory gains much traction every Tom, Dick, and Henrietta will think that they're immune.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    ukpaul said:

    Now about the media being innumerate....Remember the FT / Oxford Uni report about 50% having had it, now Sky News talk have spun this in upto 66%...by tomorrow it will be 110%.

    More seriously this is really dangerous, it is giving people the message well probably most people have already got it, therefore why are we locking down...lovely sunny day out...I'm off out.

    Coronavirus: Do two-thirds of us already have it?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bTF0_GUsRg

    I’m getting concerned about the amount of people who have convinced themselves that they’ve already had the virus. Given the amount of different things flying around in school, which I pick up far too often, these are very likely to have been something else. I had a bug before Christmas that knocked me out for days, a weird stomach cramp that cropped up in February, another stomach bug a few weeks ago and the week after, what I presume was a really bad cold, for which I was told to self isolate.
    From what I know about this virus, none of these were it. Maybe all these tales are just different viruses and people are just desperate to convince themselves that they are now immune. Dangerous, though.
    One question that I guess might become important at some stage is: how prevalent were other (non Covid-19) Coronaviruses in Europe prior to this year, and did they have similar symptoms?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2020

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Its Ischgl, the Austrian ski-resort again. They are in big shit if they as alleged covered this up.
    Bloody hell. Quote from the article:

    "Like many of the European victims, Mr Bland visited the Kitzloch bar, which is famed for its apres ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and known for “beer pong” – a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass.

    “We visited the Kitzloch and it was rammed, with people singing and dancing on the tables”, recalled Mr Bland on Wednesday. “People were hot and sweaty from skiing and waiters were delivering shots to tables in their hundreds. You couldn't have a better home for a virus”."
    And we all thought those Iranians licking the shrine were mad.
    If it has been in the UK since January, we could be right at the peak now, or very near it.
    I think it’s possible we peak within a fortnight. But, we shall see.
    God I hope so. I really dislike working from home now that I have to do it full time. :p
    Ha! Try to get used to it. Think it will be midsummer before anyone goes into the office again. Did you not WFH much before?
    I think it's okay once or twice a week, but not full time. Good to interact with colleagues in person, rather than remotely. Also easier to get into the zone at work.
    I’d go 3 days WFH 2 office, if I had the choice. I don’t, because I don’t have a desk in our new (smaller) office anymore so it’s 4/1. Motivation not a problem though - in fact I am far more productive at home. But I do miss seeing colleagues and having the odd pint after work.
    Dude. Take the hint, already.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "Two thirds of patients who die of coronavirus would have died this year anyway, government advisor says

    Professor Neil Ferguson said experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Andy_JS said:

    "Two thirds of patients who die of coronavirus would have died this year anyway, government advisor says

    Professor Neil Ferguson said experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway

    Unrelenting tide of good news right now. Antibody testing will hopefully confirm a big iceberg in the next fortnight.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Andy_JS said:

    "Two thirds of patients who die of coronavirus would have died this year anyway, government advisor says

    Professor Neil Ferguson said experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway

    So experts have more caught up with my forecast of ten days ago.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Global Deaths still well ahead of this back of the fag packet calculation posted on Twitter a while ago, I had thought that by mid April the new death rate would be beating this chart but America looks like it is going to blow this apart.


    If smoking is an important factor, the USA might do better than expected since they have a relatively low rate.
    I thought non-smokers were much more likely to catch CV-19.
    Have you got a source for that?
    @Foxy posted a link, I think.

    IIRC they're less likely to get it, but have much worse outcomes if they do.
    If you live you'll come home with two giant bazooka man breasts!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Two thirds of patients who die of coronavirus would have died this year anyway, government advisor says

    Professor Neil Ferguson said experts were now expecting around 20,000 deaths, although said it may turn out to be a lot less"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway

    So experts have more caught up with my forecast of ten days ago.
    Right from the start I've trusted your opinion and interpretations on this more than anyone else in the entire media.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Chameleon said:

    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    That would perhaps explain why so many people had a terrible cold in December, including me.
    It would be nice to think that the 3 month cough I had from early December had granted me immunity!
    Had exactly that too.

    We (wife and I) got it in early December, from an Italian friend who came to stay. (No, she is not in the leather industry....) Horrible hacking dry cough at night - hadn't had such a bad cough for decades before that. Probably not it, probably coincidence. Prevented me from going to see my mother before she passed on at Christmas. But whatever it was, I couldn't risk passing it on to the residential home she was in.
    I had a slight fever, bad dry cough, and horrendously achy joints (in retrospect the joints were so painful that I should have seen someone) about a month ago, followed soon after by a feeling that made breathing seem like it was being done through two thick straws. I had been in close contact with someone that had been to Milan a week and a bit before. Luckily none of my family or housemates subsequently got ill.

    I'm in young and (relatively) fit, so it's extremely possible that that week was me having coronavirus, but given the time was unfortunately far more likely to be the flu. A lot of people have been knocked over by a bad flu in the past few months, so if this theory gains much traction every Tom, Dick, and Henrietta will think that they're immune.
    Yep, the aching joints kept me in bed for a couple of days.

    Given the reports from those who have had the real thing, the working assumption has to be that there were several really nasty bastard bugs around this winter, although by far the nastiest was Covid-19. It will be interesting to see what other antibodies they find when they start doing the blood work on the nation - and whether any of these bugs might give a degree of immunity to Covid-19. That would be too much to hope for though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Chameleon said:

    alex_ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Endillion said:

    Ok, new theory:

    - The first iteration of the novel coronavirus actually appeared at some point in mid 2019. As it was extremely infectious, millions of people round the world caught it.
    - This form was unpleasant, but almost invariably harmless, and generally cleared up in a few days to a few weeks. As a result, no one noticed at the time, nobody bothered developing antibody tests, classifying it, etc.
    - It then evolved into something quite nasty in Hubei, sometime in November 2019. The rapidly mounting death rate quickly brought it to the attention of the Chinese authorities.
    - Since then, there have been a few further major variants, with quite variable levels of aggression and general nastiness/associated mortality.
    - Crucially, having had one variant (including the first one) confers almost (but not complete) immunity for all the others.

    I know this is entirely guesswork. But it seems like it fits all the facts we have. It explains why:
    - the virus seems both incredibly infectious but also not to be spreading all that quickly
    - there are wildly different death rates in different countries
    - case rates seem to tail off after a while regardless of whether anyone does anything about it or not
    - The Imperial vs Oxford modelling on number of cases - they're both right, only the latter are including all variants and the former only the nasty one
    - The incredibly wide range of symptoms experienced by a range of people exposed to the the same disease, none of whom have any immunity to it
    - I and a bunch of people I know had all the symptons months before anyoen in China did

    What have I missed? The bat/pangolin research? Just a total failure to understand how epidemiology works?

    That would perhaps explain why so many people had a terrible cold in December, including me.
    It would be nice to think that the 3 month cough I had from early December had granted me immunity!
    Had exactly that too.

    We (wife and I) got it in early December, from an Italian friend who came to stay. (No, she is not in the leather industry....) Horrible hacking dry cough at night - hadn't had such a bad cough for decades before that. Probably not it, probably coincidence. Prevented me from going to see my mother before she passed on at Christmas. But whatever it was, I couldn't risk passing it on to the residential home she was in.
    I had a slight fever, bad dry cough, and horrendously achy joints (in retrospect the joints were so painful that I should have seen someone) about a month ago, followed soon after by a feeling that made breathing seem like it was being done through two thick straws. I had been in close contact with someone that had been to Milan a week and a bit before. Luckily none of my family or housemates subsequently got ill.

    I'm in young and (relatively) fit, so it's extremely possible that that week was me having coronavirus, but given the time was unfortunately far more likely to be the flu. A lot of people have been knocked over by a bad flu in the past few months, so if this theory gains much traction every Tom, Dick, and Henrietta will think that they're immune.
    Yep, the aching joints kept me in bed for a couple of days.

    Given the reports from those who have had the real thing, the working assumption has to be that there were several really nasty bastard bugs around this winter, although by far the nastiest was Covid-19. It will be interesting to see what other antibodies they find when they start doing the blood work on the nation - and whether any of these bugs might give a degree of immunity to Covid-19. That would be too much to hope for though.
    The test will pick up only the Covid-19 antibodies, so they won’t.

    In any event, most of the population will have antibodies to various cold and flu bugs from the last several years (you do tend to lose immunity to common cold viruses over a period of a few years).
    If Covid-19 had been around in the UK earlier on, we’d have seen deaths from it, and the lung symptoms in the serious cases are so peculiar that it’s hard to believe they would have been missed.
    It’s true, though, that the number of mild or asymptomatic cases is a big unknown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Dead Thread

This discussion has been closed.