With talk of "unlimited" Quantatitive Easing what's to stop the government from effectively purchasing all its past bonds and thus effectively eliminating the national debt?
In theory inflation. (It's called monetisation of debt).
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
Black Death did come to Europe via rats on merchant ships from Asia though
And smallpox, measles and flu came to the Native Americans through relatively small numbers of European invaders. Of which Trump’s ancestors (albeit the damage had been done by the time they arrived in his specific case) can be numbered.
A reader has been in touch to say he has just had an email from the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency saying that MOT tests are still going ahead, even though the government is trying to minimise social contact and coronavirus transmission risks.
And 53% of Americans approve of his handling of the crisis! The world's most powerful populace has had their brains rotted by cable news. Thank God we have the BBC.
The US government response to the coronavirus reminds me a little of the Reagan administrations initial response to the AIDS crisis. In the early days it was brushed under the carpet, even (and the articles are all there on this) as a little bit of a joke, believe it or not.
Our government was slow to face it, but when confronted with the full enormity of the situation, to its credit and certainly to the credit of Norman Fowler, it came down much more strongly. Let us see if history repeats itself.
I still remember the “Don’t Die of Ignorance” tombstone ads.
Interesting debate how much govt should try to scare people right now. If I'm allowed a repost:
ABSTRACT Among the many lessons of the homeland terrorist attacks of 2001 was that fear has powerful public health implications. People chose to drive instead of flying, thereby raising their risk of injury or death. Thousands took broad-spectrum antibiotics to prevent possible anthrax infections, thereby accelerating antimicrobial resistance. Such potentially harmful actions were taken by people seeking a sense of safety because they were afraid. This essay argues for greater emphasis on risk communication to help people keep their fears in perspective. Effective communication, not only through what the government says but implicit in the actions it takes, empowers people to make wiser choices in their own lives, and to support wise choices by society in applying limited resources to maximize public and environmental health.
It's very thought-provoking and deserves a thorough read, even if you disagree with their conclusions. I think health wonks might find they part company with Gray and Ropeik's prescription on the following point, or at least find it harder to follow:
SET HONEST GOALS. Another paradigm shift is about measuring success. Honest goals must be set. Most risk communication fails because it tells people only what the communicators want them to know, to get them to behave “rationally”—that is, the way the communicator wants them to behave. This is the “brainwashing” model that Sheila Jasanoff and others have fairly criticized. 29 We believe that risk communication is more likely to succeed if it sets the more realistic goal of helping people understand the facts, in ways that are relevant to their own lives, feelings, and values, so they are empowered to put the risk in perspective and make more informed choices. Both approaches seek to inform, to educate, and to motivate changes in behavior. But the first is overtly manipulative and less likely to be trusted, while the second acknowledges and respects the reality that people’s reactions to risk are not always rational and presents the information in terms relevant to what they are feeling.
Such change will not come easily to some agencies. It means letting go of control (“We’ll tell them what we want to tell them and make them think what we want them to think”) and relying on trustworthiness rather than manipulation to achieve success. It will take a courageous manager to recognize the long-run value of giving up control in the short term.
Please please read the whole thing, I know I post a lot of links on here but since "government comms strategy" seems to be a recurring theme on PB atm this article deserves reading several times over!!
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
With talk of "unlimited" Quantatitive Easing what's to stop the government from effectively purchasing all its past bonds and thus effectively eliminating the national debt?
In theory nothing. QE is the Pandora's box that was first prized open in 2008. Another generation of politicians are learning the almost certainly false lesson that it is a relatively painless way of resolving an extremely difficult issue. Good luck ever getting it closed again now.
Well hardly a surprise given the low inflation era we're in.
Borrowing was the Pandora's Box opened a long time ago that many generations of politicians thought was an easy fix to today's problems (while passing the debt to the future) - a generation of politicians finding a way to get rid of that debt was probably inevitable.
I have a sneaking suspicion not all these people work for the NHS...
Security staff were forced to ask NHS workers for ID before allowing them in to shop first. Scuffles broke out in several queues. A Tesco in Cheshunt, Surrey, was overwhelmed with pushy shoppers after staff stopped checking IDs.
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
Black Death did come to Europe via rats on merchant ships from Asia though
And smallpox, measles and flu came to the Native Americans through relatively small numbers of European invaders. Of which Trump’s ancestors (albeit the damage had been done by the time they arrived in his specific case) can be numbered.
Send everyone (including Americans) back to where they came from then, stop all international trade and stop all international travel. Problem solved! OK we might crash the global economy even further but nevermind
WHSmith has insisted it is an “essential retailer” akin to supermarkets and pharmacies as it vowed to keep open its 1,200 stores in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown.
"In our High Street stores, we have a retail offer that extends to every generation. We can provide essential products to our younger pre-school customers; an unrivalled education officer with accompanying stationery range to children, teenagers and students; a fantastic books offer for everyone; and a news and magazines offer that can’t be beaten, enabling communities to access information and keep up to date with what is happening at the current time."
Unbelievable.
Not sure in what world anyone would consider WHSmith an essential retailer. I can probably count on one hand the number of times I’ve been into a store in the last decade.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
I see you're rightly reminding us that Trump is of German descent...
How prolific is immigration of Muslims from the Indian subcontinent in Germany? Sadly, it appears 25% of British fatalities are Muslims, and probability would suggest these are largely from the Pakistani and Bangladeshi community. Partly this is due to behaviour (gathering in Mosques), but there may be an element of racial susceptibility too.
Where are you getting this data from?
The only 'data' posted here is the 25% factoid, which is something posted here last night, originated with Maajid Nawaz on his LBC Radio Show.
That, and the associated story in the Independent, refer solely to lifestyle matters - extended families, and collective worship - which in different ways have made the Italians particularly susceptible to transmission also.
The reference to “racial susceptibility” dropped gratuitously into the end of your OP appears to be an unpleasant speculation all of your own?
I think it probably true. Asian men have higher rates of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, kidney impairment, and are a very urban population.
Even a non-observant older Muslim man living alone would be high risk of dying, should they catch it.
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
Black Death did come to Europe via rats on merchant ships from Asia though
And smallpox, measles and flu came to the Native Americans through relatively small numbers of European invaders. Of which Trump’s ancestors (albeit the damage had been done by the time they arrived in his specific case) can be numbered.
Send everyone (including Americans) back to where they came from then, stop all international trade and stop all international travel. Problem solved! OK we might crash the global economy even further but nevermind
Most US cases are in New York, Washington and California etc ie Democratic states, Trump states like West Virginia and Montana have had fewer cases with a few exceptions like Florida. Perhaps that is driving Trump's thinking ie go for herd immunity beyind the elderly and vulnerable after 15 days federally and let Democratic governors and legislatures deal with the higher than average problems in their states.
That would be an idiotic approach, even for Trump.
Herd immunity in California or NYC does not protect Indiana, that requires herd immunity locally in Indiana.
If barely any Californians and New Yorkers regularly travel to Indiana, I would say barely any travel to some Trump states like West Virginia and Idaho and North Dakota and those states have very few cases they do not need much herd immunity anyway
Plenty of New Yorkers travel to DC, and plenty of DCers visit West Virginia. Plenty of Californians visit Colorado, and plenty of Coloradans travel to North Dakota and Idaho.
With talk of "unlimited" Quantatitive Easing what's to stop the government from effectively purchasing all its past bonds and thus effectively eliminating the national debt?
In theory nothing. QE is the Pandora's box that was first prized open in 2008. Another generation of politicians are learning the almost certainly false lesson that it is a relatively painless way of resolving an extremely difficult issue. Good luck ever getting it closed again now.
+1 This ends with serious inflation at some point in the future.
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
Black Death did come to Europe via rats on merchant ships from Asia though
And smallpox, measles and flu came to the Native Americans through relatively small numbers of European invaders. Of which Trump’s ancestors (albeit the damage had been done by the time they arrived in his specific case) can be numbered.
Yes, but they gave us tobacco and syphilis in return...
A reader has been in touch to say he has just had an email from the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency saying that MOT tests are still going ahead, even though the government is trying to minimise social contact and coronavirus transmission risks.
Yes, bloody ridiculous. I was checking this today. Suspended for buses and lorries but not private cars.
Fortunately I have found a local garage who will collect and drop off our car.
And 53% of Americans approve of his handling of the crisis! The world's most powerful populace has had their brains rotted by cable news. Thank God we have the BBC.
The US government response to the coronavirus reminds me a little of the Reagan administrations initial response to the AIDS crisis. In the early days it was brushed under the carpet, even (and the articles are all there on this) as a little bit of a joke, believe it or not.
Our government was slow to face it, but when confronted with the full enormity of the situation, to its credit and certainly to the credit of Norman Fowler, it came down much more strongly. Let us see if history repeats itself.
I still remember the “Don’t Die of Ignorance” tombstone ads.
Interesting debate how much govt should try to scare people right now. If I'm allowed a repost:
ABSTRACT Among the many lessons of the homeland terrorist attacks of 2001 was that fear has powerful public health implications. People chose to drive instead of flying, thereby raising their risk of injury or death. Thousands took broad-spectrum antibiotics to prevent possible anthrax infections, thereby accelerating antimicrobial resistance. Such potentially harmful actions were taken by people seeking a sense of safety because they were afraid. This essay argues for greater emphasis on risk communication to help people keep their fears in perspective. Effective communication, not only through what the government says but implicit in the actions it takes, empowers people to make wiser choices in their own lives, and to support wise choices by society in applying limited resources to maximize public and environmental health.
It's very thought-provoking and deserves a thorough read, even if you disagree with their conclusions. I think health wonks might find they part company with Gray and Ropeik's prescription on the following point, or at least find it harder to follow:
SET HONEST GOALS. Another paradigm shift is about measuring success. Honest goals must be set. Most risk communication fails because it tells people only what the communicators want them to know, to get them to behave “rationally”—that is, the way the communicator wants them to behave. This is the “brainwashing” model that Sheila Jasanoff and others have fairly criticized. 29 We believe that risk communication is more likely to succeed if it sets the more realistic goal of helping people understand the facts, in ways that are relevant to their own lives, feelings, and values, so they are empowered to put the risk in perspective and make more informed choices. Both approaches seek to inform, to educate, and to motivate changes in behavior. But the first is overtly manipulative and less likely to be trusted, while the second acknowledges and respects the reality that people’s reactions to risk are not always rational and presents the information in terms relevant to what they are feeling.
Such change will not come easily to some agencies. It means letting go of control (“We’ll tell them what we want to tell them and make them think what we want them to think”) and relying on trustworthiness rather than manipulation to achieve success. It will take a courageous manager to recognize the long-run value of giving up control in the short term.
Please please read the whole thing, I know I post a lot of links on here but since "government comms strategy" seems to be a recurring theme on PB atm this article deserves reading several times over!!
This was very interesting thank you - please keep sharing your links.
A reader has been in touch to say he has just had an email from the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency saying that MOT tests are still going ahead, even though the government is trying to minimise social contact and coronavirus transmission risks.
Yes, bloody ridiculous. I was checking this today. Suspended for buses and lorries but not private cars.
Fortunately I have found a local garage who will collect and drop off our car.
Spain have suspended ITV (mot) tests and driving licence renewals about a week ago.
Most US cases are in New York, Washington and California etc ie Democratic states, Trump states like West Virginia and Montana have had fewer cases with a few exceptions like Florida. Perhaps that is driving Trump's thinking ie go for herd immunity beyind the elderly and vulnerable after 15 days federally and let Democratic governors and legislatures deal with the higher than average problems in their states.
That would be an idiotic approach, even for Trump.
Herd immunity in California or NYC does not protect Indiana, that requires herd immunity locally in Indiana.
Is there a clear definition of herd immunity? When exactly does it set in? When the last infectious carrier on planet earth has either died or completely healed? Is California ever safe while Indiana still has it, or Montenegro, or Myanmar? How long does immunity persist in the individual? Can it be inherited? Is herd immunity ever a reliable protection?
I have a sneaking suspicion not all these people work for the NHS...
Security staff were forced to ask NHS workers for ID before allowing them in to shop first. Scuffles broke out in several queues. A Tesco in Cheshunt, Surrey, was overwhelmed with pushy shoppers after staff stopped checking IDs.
They should make it a crime to imitate a health or emergency worker for malicious purposes for the duration of this crisis. And this would count as malicious. If instead of just being turned away people were turned over to the police they would soon stop this shit.
WHSmith has insisted it is an “essential retailer” akin to supermarkets and pharmacies as it vowed to keep open its 1,200 stores in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown.
"In our High Street stores, we have a retail offer that extends to every generation. We can provide essential products to our younger pre-school customers; an unrivalled education officer with accompanying stationery range to children, teenagers and students; a fantastic books offer for everyone; and a news and magazines offer that can’t be beaten, enabling communities to access information and keep up to date with what is happening at the current time."
Unbelievable.
Not sure in what world anyone would consider WHSmith an essential retailer. I can probably count on one hand the number of times I’ve been into a store in the last decade.
I bet they have a lot of Easter eggs to shift
Didn't. a chain of pet-requisite stores say much the same?
Have just been out for a breath of fresh air, and while I couldn't go the full distance I planned, due to mud, I saw several very pretty red butterflies and a large bumblebee. And two magpies; one for sorrow, two for joy. Quite cheered me up
God he's like one of those halfwits on twitter who blames mass immigration for Covid-19 without realising the likes of the Black Death happened without mass immigration.
Black Death did come to Europe via rats on merchant ships from Asia though
And smallpox, measles and flu came to the Native Americans through relatively small numbers of European invaders. Of which Trump’s ancestors (albeit the damage had been done by the time they arrived in his specific case) can be numbered.
Send everyone (including Americans) back to where they came from then, stop all international trade and stop all international travel. Problem solved! OK we might crash the global economy even further but nevermind
The vast majority of the world "come" from multiple places if you are going back to the colonisation of America, obviously everyone does if you go back far enough. Do we get chopped into proportional pieces before DHL send us somewhere?
More on the German mortality figures...much better testing in Germany, but....
The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy.
On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.
With talk of "unlimited" Quantatitive Easing what's to stop the government from effectively purchasing all its past bonds and thus effectively eliminating the national debt?
It's unlimited in the sense that there is no limit to how far you can run.
IE - there IS a limit but you can only find out what it is by starting and carrying on until you drop.
For "you drop" read currency collapse and hyperinflation.
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
Most US cases are in New York, Washington and California etc ie Democratic states, Trump states like West Virginia and Montana have had fewer cases with a few exceptions like Florida. Perhaps that is driving Trump's thinking ie go for herd immunity beyind the elderly and vulnerable after 15 days federally and let Democratic governors and legislatures deal with the higher than average problems in their states.
That would be an idiotic approach, even for Trump.
Herd immunity in California or NYC does not protect Indiana, that requires herd immunity locally in Indiana.
Is there a clear definition of herd immunity? When exactly does it set in? When the last infectious carrier on planet earth has either died or completely healed? Is California ever safe while Indiana still has it, or Montenegro, or Myanmar? How long does immunity persist in the individual? Can it be inherited? Is herd immunity ever a reliable protection?
Herd immunity is the level of immunity such that infected individuals infect fewer than 1 further case, so that any outbreaks (for example imported cases) fizzle out. It is not an individual immunity, but a community effect. It relates to the population in question, so that herd immunity in one population cannot protect another.
It is estimated to be a 60% or more rate of infection for COVID19.
More on the German mortality figures...much better testing in Germany, but....
The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy.
On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
I see you're rightly reminding us that Trump is of German descent...
How prolific is immigration of Muslims from the Indian subcontinent in Germany? Sadly, it appears 25% of British fatalities are Muslims, and probability would suggest these are largely from the Pakistani and Bangladeshi community. Partly this is due to behaviour (gathering in Mosques), but there may be an element of racial susceptibility too.
Where are you getting this data from?
The only 'data' posted here is the 25% factoid, which is something posted here last night, originated with Maajid Nawaz on his LBC Radio Show.
I wonder how he knows this?
I believe the NHS has made it clear to community groups that Muslims are at risk, but if true, it probably doesn't want to release or stand behind the stat explicitly. It would tally with what is said about viral load - Mosques have large gatherings, at close quarters, and they are frequent.
More evidence that you're right
"A number of theories have begun to emerge to try to understand the high transmission rates in the region. [West Mids]
The Birmingham MP, Khalid Mahmood, said elderly Muslim and Sikh people in the area were struggling to adhere to government guidelines surrounding social distancing as they are driven by their religious convictions.
Despite most religious services being cancelled, some older people are continuing to attend mosques and gurdwaras to pray, said Mahmood.
He added: “Mosques and gurdwaras have told people to stay away but some of the older ones are really struggling. Part of it is because they feel religious observance is more important now than ever – they feel they may die and lose loved ones – so they need to pray. These are people who have incredibly strong religious convictions and it’s hard for them to stay away.”"
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
It really ought not to be. If there are multiple women making allegations against an individual it is only right that they are investigated and if deemed appropriate prosecuted. Just because the jury said not guilty/not proven doesn't mean that it was wrong that the cases were brought to trial.
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
I see my forecast that Salmond was innocent has been vindicated, it was obvious all along.
Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.html A mother who was infected with the coronavirus couldn’t smell her baby’s full diaper. Cooks who can usually name every spice in a restaurant dish can’t smell curry or garlic, and food tastes bland. Others say they can’t pick up the sweet scent of shampoo or the foul odor of kitty litter.
Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.
On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
“We really want to raise awareness that this is a sign of infection and that anyone who develops loss of sense of smell should self-isolate,” Prof. Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, wrote in an email. “It could contribute to slowing transmission and save lives.”
She and Nirmal Kumar, president of ENT UK, a group representing ear, nose and throat doctors in Britain, issued a joint statement urging health care workers to use personal protective equipment when treating any patients who have lost their senses of smell, and advised against performing nonessential sinus endoscopy procedures on anyone, because the virus replicates in the nose and the throat and an exam can prompt coughs or sneezes that expose the doctor to a high level of virus.
Two ear, nose and throat specialists in Britain who have been infected with the coronavirus are in critical condition, Dr. Hopkins said. Earlier reports from Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus first emerged, had warned that ear, nose and throat specialists as well as eye doctors were infected and dying in large numbers, Dr. Hopkins said.
The British physicians cited reports from other countries indicating that significant numbers of coronavirus patients experienced anosmia, saying that in South Korea, where testing has been widespread, 30 percent of 2,000 patients who tested positive experienced anosmia as their major presenting symptom (these were mild cases).
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
#metoo is a Westminster thing apparently.
Harry you must be disconsolate, totally and utterly gutted
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
I see my forecast that Salmond was innocent has been vindicated, it was obvious all along.
Not proven isn't innocent, Malc. Can't see him as white as the driven snow. Or something like that.
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
#metoo is a Westminster thing apparently.
Harry you must be disconsolate, totally and utterly gutted
Yes - turns out all 10 women were not believable...
It really ought not to be. If there are multiple women making allegations against an individual it is only right that they are investigated and if deemed appropriate prosecuted. Just because the jury said not guilty/not proven doesn't mean that it was wrong that the cases were brought to trial.
Investigated, yes. But brought to trial, only if the police believe him to be guilty and believe they can prove it at a trial. Cases aren't (or shouldn't be) brought to trial speculatively.
Would you mind giving me a brief rundown of what SPo2, PR and Perfusion index mean and the danger levels I need to look out for if I or my family catch the virus?
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
#metoo is a Westminster thing apparently.
Harry you must be disconsolate, totally and utterly gutted
Yes - turns out all 10 women were .........
I wouldn't repeat that if I were you; you'll get into bother, and so might OGH.
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
#metoo is a Westminster thing apparently.
Harry you must be disconsolate, totally and utterly gutted
Yes - turns out all 10 women were harlots and liars.
I knew it was a majority of women on the jury but I didn't think it was ten.
It really ought not to be. If there are multiple women making allegations against an individual it is only right that they are investigated and if deemed appropriate prosecuted. Just because the jury said not guilty/not proven doesn't mean that it was wrong that the cases were brought to trial.
Investigated, yes. But brought to trial, only if the police believe him to be guilty and believe they can prove it at a trial. Cases aren't (or shouldn't be) brought to trial speculatively.
Well, it's very difficult to prove that the authorities didn't think they'd get a conviction. Ultimately in a case link this it is one person's word against another. In this case there were a number of people making similar allegations against the defendant, so I'm struggling to see why that shouldn't have come to trial.
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
#metoo is a Westminster thing apparently.
Harry you must be disconsolate, totally and utterly gutted
Yes - turns out all 10 women were .........
I wouldn't repeat that if I were you; you'll get into bother, and so might OGH.
More like poor Salmond, just lucky the stitch up did not see him in jail, if you look at the supposed evidence and fact defence did not question one of Salmond's witnesses who ripped a hole in all the accusations it is shocking how it ever got to court.
Their testimony was quite harrowing in parts - and not to have been believed will be very difficult.
However, Salmond is innocent and that's the end of it.
I'm in no way commenting on the outcome of the case but no-one is ever "found innocent." You're just Not found Guilty. Say, hypothetically, OJ Simpson HAD murdered his wife, but had been found Not Guilty in court, he would still be guilty of murdering his wife. It could just have been that corroboration was difficult, which it is for some crimes.
Interesting - not sure how that will play in Scottish politics right now. No doubt the #metoo crowd will be gutted. But given the state of the world right now it's unlikely to occupy the news pundits for long.
I see my forecast that Salmond was innocent has been vindicated, it was obvious all along.
Not proven isn't innocent, Malc. Can't see him as white as the driven snow. Or something like that.
Wiki:
not proven is interpreted as indicating that the jury or judge, respectively, is not convinced of the innocence of the accused; in fact, they may be morally convinced that the accused is guilty, but do not find the proofs sufficient for a conviction. One reason for this is the rule that in such cases the evidence for the prosecution must be corroborated in order to permit a conviction. Thus, there might be a single plaintiff or witness for the prosecution, which the jury or judge believes is both truthful and trustworthy, but no other witness or circumstances against the accused. By Scottish law, the accused then should be acquitted, but often will be so by the verdict not proven.
I have a sneaking suspicion not all these people work for the NHS...
Security staff were forced to ask NHS workers for ID before allowing them in to shop first. Scuffles broke out in several queues. A Tesco in Cheshunt, Surrey, was overwhelmed with pushy shoppers after staff stopped checking IDs.
They should make it a crime to imitate a health or emergency worker for malicious purposes for the duration of this crisis. And this would count as malicious. If instead of just being turned away people were turned over to the police they would soon stop this shit.
To be fair, is it to some degree communication issue, these people turned up not knowing it was select group happy hour, or one of the oldie GoldenHour? So they are not all selfish greedy bastards?
Alternativly, have they been brainwashed from birth? So they are there because although they have something to eat today, they want something else. That they don’t like not getting what they want. They are are pissed off when they see someone else getting what they wanted is how they have been conditioned from birth and through out socialisation as norm of their society?
So an expensive and inconvenient version of Amazon then?
But Smiths does what it does more wholeheartedly than anybody.
It is gloriously expensive and it is massively inconvenient. The staff tend to be slow or not there, therefore your desired transaction will take a long long time. And no cheery chat either. They are clipped and sour.
There's no half measures. It's quite the experience. Integral part of the High St and would be a great loss.
It really ought not to be. If there are multiple women making allegations against an individual it is only right that they are investigated and if deemed appropriate prosecuted. Just because the jury said not guilty/not proven doesn't mean that it was wrong that the cases were brought to trial.
Fact that they were in Whatsapp groups together to discuss stories, all high up in SNP etc, it was very obvious what was going on.
It really ought not to be. If there are multiple women making allegations against an individual it is only right that they are investigated and if deemed appropriate prosecuted. Just because the jury said not guilty/not proven doesn't mean that it was wrong that the cases were brought to trial.
Fact that they were in Whatsapp groups together to discuss stories, all high up in SNP etc, it was very obvious what was going on.
Black Death did come to Europe via rats on merchant ships from Asia though
And smallpox, measles and flu came to the Native Americans through relatively small numbers of European invaders. Of which Trump’s ancestors (albeit the damage had been done by the time they arrived in his specific case) can be numbered.
Send everyone (including Americans) back to where they came from then, stop all international trade and stop all international travel. Problem solved! OK we might crash the global economy even further but nevermind
Is the food stuff getting worse, not better? I have to wonder if it is all truly self inflicted panic or whether there are actual underlying problems with food supply. It would make sense.
He's right. We are nothing like two weeks behind Italy. Hence why people are now spouting BS like three weeks behind Italy. Italy's momentum two weeks ago was worse than ours now so the comparison is weak and void.
Is the food stuff getting worse, not better? I have to wonder if it is all truly self inflicted panic or whether there are actual underlying problems with food supply. It would make sense.
Perhaps in London? Outside from talking to friends / family (and also from people here) it seems less chaotic today.
It really ought not to be. If there are multiple women making allegations against an individual it is only right that they are investigated and if deemed appropriate prosecuted. Just because the jury said not guilty/not proven doesn't mean that it was wrong that the cases were brought to trial.
Fact that they were in Whatsapp groups together to discuss stories, all high up in SNP etc, it was very obvious what was going on.
Well, if what your alleging is the case, there will be further legal action to come.
He's right. We are nothing like two weeks behind Italy. Hence why people are now spouting BS like three weeks behind Italy. Italy's momentum two weeks ago was worse than ours now so the comparison is weak and void.
Whether or not we're two weeks behind Italy, his last tweet in that chain makes it very clear he's not just disagreeing with the concept, he actually doesn't understand it. He thinks that the fact that people having been saying "we're two weeks behind Italy" for several days running is inconsistent because shouldn't we be closer to catching up with them by now
More on the German mortality figures...much better testing in Germany, but....
The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy.
On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.
Whether or not we're two weeks behind Italy, his last tweet in that chain makes it very clear he's not just disagreeing with the concept, he actually doesn't understand it. He thinks that the fact that people having been saying "we're two weeks behind Italy" for several days running is inconsistent because shouldn't we be closer to catching up with them by now
It is on the face of it compelling evidence of a lack of intelligence. Who would have guessed?
Their testimony was quite harrowing in parts - and not to have been believed will be very difficult.
However, Salmond is innocent and that's the end of it.
I'm in no way commenting on the outcome of the case but no-one is ever "found innocent." You're just Not found Guilty. Say, hypothetically, OJ Simpson HAD murdered his wife, but had been found Not Guilty in court, he would still be guilty of murdering his wife. It could just have been that corroboration was difficult, which it is for some crimes.
Surely that's wrong. You are innocent and remain innocent until found otherwise.
Salmond entered and left the court an innocent man.
(Separately I think the "not proven" verdict highly unsatisfactory - either there was enough evidence to convict, or there wasn't - if there wasn't then "not guilty" is the appropriate verdict. "Not proven" just leaves plenty of ammunition for the "no smoke without fire" crew)
More on the German mortality figures...much better testing in Germany, but....
The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy.
On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.
I'm sorry, but those are numbers are incorrect. @HYUFD has assured us that the Italians who got CV-19 were young.
If Italy is doing tests on those whose deaths might be attributable to other causes, yes their median age of catching Covid 19 will be recorded as higher. You are more likely to die of Covid related disease if you are older, you are not any more likely to catch Covid 19 if you are older without precautions than if you are younger
He's right. We are nothing like two weeks behind Italy. Hence why people are now spouting BS like three weeks behind Italy. Italy's momentum two weeks ago was worse than ours now so the comparison is weak and void.
Whether or not we're two weeks behind Italy, his last tweet in that chain makes it very clear he's not just disagreeing with the concept, he actually doesn't understand it. He thinks that the fact that people having been saying "we're two weeks behind Italy" for several days running is inconsistent because shouldn't we be closer to catching up with them by now
A broken clock can be right twice a day. Hodges is a Muppet but it doesn't make him wrong.
Comments
A reader has been in touch to say he has just had an email from the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency saying that MOT tests are still going ahead, even though the government is trying to minimise social contact and coronavirus transmission risks.
There's a famous piece in Health Affairs by George M. Gray and David P. Ropeik (both from the Center for Risk Analysis at Harvard's School of Public Health) called "Dealing With The Dangers Of Fear: The Role Of Risk Communication".
ABSTRACT
Among the many lessons of the homeland terrorist attacks of 2001 was that fear has powerful public health implications. People chose to drive instead of flying, thereby raising their risk of injury or death. Thousands took broad-spectrum antibiotics to prevent possible anthrax infections, thereby accelerating antimicrobial resistance. Such potentially harmful actions were taken by people seeking a sense of safety because they were afraid. This essay argues for greater emphasis on risk communication to help people keep their fears in perspective. Effective communication, not only through what the government says but implicit in the actions it takes, empowers people to make wiser choices in their own lives, and to support wise choices by society in applying limited resources to maximize public and environmental health.
It's very thought-provoking and deserves a thorough read, even if you disagree with their conclusions. I think health wonks might find they part company with Gray and Ropeik's prescription on the following point, or at least find it harder to follow:
SET HONEST GOALS.
Another paradigm shift is about measuring success. Honest goals must be set. Most risk communication fails because it tells people only what the communicators want them to know, to get them to behave “rationally”—that is, the way the communicator wants them to behave. This is the “brainwashing” model that Sheila Jasanoff and others have fairly criticized. 29 We believe that risk communication is more likely to succeed if it sets the more realistic goal of helping people understand the facts, in ways that are relevant to their own lives, feelings, and values, so they are empowered to put the risk in perspective and make more informed choices. Both approaches seek to inform, to educate, and to motivate changes in behavior. But the first is overtly manipulative and less likely to be trusted, while the second acknowledges and respects the reality that people’s reactions to risk are not always rational and presents the information in terms relevant to what they are feeling.
Such change will not come easily to some agencies. It means letting go of control (“We’ll tell them what we want to tell them and make them think what we want them to think”) and relying on trustworthiness rather than manipulation to achieve success. It will take a courageous manager to recognize the long-run value of giving up control in the short term.
Please please read the whole thing, I know I post a lot of links on here but since "government comms strategy" seems to be a recurring theme on PB atm this article deserves reading several times over!!
https://twitter.com/samisam147/status/1241844687960506368?s=19
Borrowing was the Pandora's Box opened a long time ago that many generations of politicians thought was an easy fix to today's problems (while passing the debt to the future) - a generation of politicians finding a way to get rid of that debt was probably inevitable.
Security staff were forced to ask NHS workers for ID before allowing them in to shop first. Scuffles broke out in several queues. A Tesco in Cheshunt, Surrey, was overwhelmed with pushy shoppers after staff stopped checking IDs.
Even a non-observant older Muslim man living alone would be high risk of dying, should they catch it.
Plenty of Californians visit Colorado, and plenty of Coloradans travel to North Dakota and Idaho.
He asked gloomly.
This ends with serious inflation at some point in the future.
Fortunately I have found a local garage who will collect and drop off our car.
https://twitter.com/Hayleyturner123/status/1242024232055451651
https://twitter.com/GECFrost/status/1242100723460050946
When exactly does it set in?
When the last infectious carrier on planet earth has either died or completely healed?
Is California ever safe while Indiana still has it, or Montenegro, or Myanmar?
How long does immunity persist in the individual?
Can it be inherited?
Is herd immunity ever a reliable protection?
That's some gravy train
Have just been out for a breath of fresh air, and while I couldn't go the full distance I planned, due to mud, I saw several very pretty red butterflies and a large bumblebee.
And two magpies; one for sorrow, two for joy.
Quite cheered me up
Who I wonder?
The age profile for those who have tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy.
On the other hand, German hospitals do not routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other causes.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-the-coronavirus-mortality-rate-so-much-lower-in-germany-
However, Salmond is innocent and that's the end of it.
IE - there IS a limit but you can only find out what it is by starting and carrying on until you drop.
For "you drop" read currency collapse and hyperinflation.
It is estimated to be a 60% or more rate of infection for COVID19.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.html
A mother who was infected with the coronavirus couldn’t smell her baby’s full diaper. Cooks who can usually name every spice in a restaurant dish can’t smell curry or garlic, and food tastes bland. Others say they can’t pick up the sweet scent of shampoo or the foul odor of kitty litter.
Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.
On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread. The published data is limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
“We really want to raise awareness that this is a sign of infection and that anyone who develops loss of sense of smell should self-isolate,” Prof. Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, wrote in an email. “It could contribute to slowing transmission and save lives.”
She and Nirmal Kumar, president of ENT UK, a group representing ear, nose and throat doctors in Britain, issued a joint statement urging health care workers to use personal protective equipment when treating any patients who have lost their senses of smell, and advised against performing nonessential sinus endoscopy procedures on anyone, because the virus replicates in the nose and the throat and an exam can prompt coughs or sneezes that expose the doctor to a high level of virus.
Two ear, nose and throat specialists in Britain who have been infected with the coronavirus are in critical condition, Dr. Hopkins said. Earlier reports from Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus first emerged, had warned that ear, nose and throat specialists as well as eye doctors were infected and dying in large numbers, Dr. Hopkins said.
The British physicians cited reports from other countries indicating that significant numbers of coronavirus patients experienced anosmia, saying that in South Korea, where testing has been widespread, 30 percent of 2,000 patients who tested positive experienced anosmia as their major presenting symptom (these were mild cases).
Would you mind giving me a brief rundown of what SPo2, PR and Perfusion index mean and the danger levels I need to look out for if I or my family catch the virus?
not proven is interpreted as indicating that the jury or judge, respectively, is not convinced of the innocence of the accused; in fact, they may be morally convinced that the accused is guilty, but do not find the proofs sufficient for a conviction. One reason for this is the rule that in such cases the evidence for the prosecution must be corroborated in order to permit a conviction. Thus, there might be a single plaintiff or witness for the prosecution, which the jury or judge believes is both truthful and trustworthy, but no other witness or circumstances against the accused. By Scottish law, the accused then should be acquitted, but often will be so by the verdict not proven.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_proven
Alternativly, have they been brainwashed from birth? So they are there because although they have something to eat today, they want something else. That they don’t like not getting what they want. They are are pissed off when they see someone else getting what they wanted is how they have been conditioned from birth and through out socialisation as norm of their society?
https://images.gamewatcherstatic.com/image/file/7/74/104087/Crusader-Kings-3-0.jpg
It is gloriously expensive and it is massively inconvenient. The staff tend to be slow or not there, therefore your desired transaction will take a long long time. And no cheery chat either. They are clipped and sour.
There's no half measures. It's quite the experience. Integral part of the High St and would be a great loss.
It was rather good.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1242102672213381124?s=20
Salmond entered and left the court an innocent man.
(Separately I think the "not proven" verdict highly unsatisfactory - either there was enough evidence to convict, or there wasn't - if there wasn't then "not guilty" is the appropriate verdict. "Not proven" just leaves plenty of ammunition for the "no smoke without fire" crew)
You are more likely to die of Covid related disease if you are older, you are not any more likely to catch Covid 19 if you are older without precautions than if you are younger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U