Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Interesting. Do you think this is also the case in Italy / Spain etc. then?
So many staff and friends are coming down with it, mostly mild symptoms still, that it appears to be very infectious. Very few have been formally tested, so I think the number of cases is probably 10 times the recorded. Each one infectious. Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose. Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
Agreed re the antibody. Mildly encouraging from the perspective of the number of mild cases though - suggests this really might be bad only for a relatively small subset of those infected (albeit still too many, without action, to completely overwhelm any health system).
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It is a slowing of the rate of growth.
That is not a slow down! It is still an increase. Can you please point me to your sources?
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Interesting. Do you think this is also the case in Italy / Spain etc. then?
So many staff and friends are coming down with it, mostly mild symptoms still, that it appears to be very infectious. Very few have been formally tested, so I think the number of cases is probably 10 times the recorded. Each one infectious. Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose. Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
--------------------------------------------------------- Oddment. Bro-in-law had similar symptoms round about Christmas, as did Grandson 1 and his wife, who are not in any sort of contact with bro-in-law. The latter has quite a few overseas trips, grandson & wife don't but have a wide circle of friends.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It is a slowing of the rate of growth.
That is not a slow down! It is still an increase. Can you please point me to your sources?
As I understand it, the rate of increase is getting slower. There will still be actual increases for a while yet.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It is a slowing of the rate of growth.
That is not a slow down! It is still an increase. Can you please point me to your sources?
It’s called flattening the curve
But look at Spain in Worldometers https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ New cases: increasing up to yesterday. Today is even higher and it's onl 1pm. New deaths: HAs been increasing for the last 5 days and the highest figure is today, and it's only 1pm
Now can you tell me where you are seeing a "flattening of the curve"?
China couldn't sell stuff because production was clobbered by the coronavirus. Now production is almost back to normal, China doesn't have anyone to sell their stuff to.
Horrifying images show coronavirus patients lying on the floor of a packed Madrid hospital as city is overrun with cases and country's death toll tops 2,000 with 462 victims in past 24 hours
China couldn't sell stuff because production was clobbered by the coronavirus. Now production is almost back to normal, China doesn't have anyone to sell their stuff to.
Horrifying images show coronavirus patients lying on the floor of a packed Madrid hospital as city is overrun with cases and country's death toll tops 2,000 with 462 victims in past 24 hours
China couldn't sell stuff because production was clobbered by the coronavirus. Now production is almost back to normal, China doesn't have anyone to sell their stuff to.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Re point 2 -- quarantining people coming from abroad. Just last week, the chatty shopper from Tenerife was not tested. If we are not bothered about one of the European hotspots, why isolate anyone at all?
I think we were very lax on the way we treated people coming back from abroad. Remember those interviews with people retuning from Italian ski holidays telling us that had not been tested on arrival or given any real advise other than self-isolate if you become unwell.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
Ooh you’re hard!
You better believe it.
Haha quality! You must have watched it more than me, it’s perfect.
A little life can still be a well-lived one, so never give up - as someone once said.
I agree. We can’t all be rich, successful and humble.
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
During a national crisis people get patriotic.....history is full of leaders managing to deflect their own weaknesses onto something else....
FWIW...I think those ratings are still quite terrible for Trump...a less divisive leader , an Obama, Bush, Clinton...would be getting ratings in the 80/90's
This is more or less what kinabalu has been saying for a while: Trump's performance has been terrible (electorally, not just in other ways), but nevertheless the crisis increases his chances of winning. And other people have mostly been disagreeing.
So maybe kinabalu should write the thread, if willing?
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Re point 2 -- quarantining people coming from abroad. Just last week, the chatty shopper from Tenerife was not tested. If we are not bothered about one of the European hotspots, why isolate anyone at all?
I think we were very lax on the way we treated people coming back from abroad. Remember those interviews with people retuning from Italian ski holidays telling us that had not been tested on arrival or given any real advise other than self-isolate if you become unwell.
The NYT showed modelling that highlighted unless you totally eliminate all travel or can instantly test everybody it actually makes little difference.
As the Covid-19 situation in Spain escalates, James Badcock rounds up the main themes:
The country's lockdown is expected to be extended until April 11 and the government is banning all international arrivals that are not essential or Spaniards returning from abroad. Spain’s elderly population is taking a bigger hit than in other countries: 67 per cent of deaths in Spain are people over 80. In Italy, the figure is 50 per cent, and much lower in South Korea and China, but they are very different demographically to Spain – Italy is not, though. 12 per cent of positives in Spain are among health workers – three times higher than China and worse than other countries that have given out this data. Facemasks and other protective equipment is lacking, and Spain’s national government was forced to permit regional government to make their own purchases at a meeting on Sunday after previously commandeering regional supplies. A government official last week said Spain had done 350,000 tests, but that was later changed to “purchased”. It is thought the country is lagging behind on testing. More than 30,000 fines for breaking the lockdown rules were handed out by last Friday.
China couldn't sell stuff because production was clobbered by the coronavirus. Now production is almost back to normal, China doesn't have anyone to sell their stuff to.
I suspect they do. This story of the "British ventilator" reminds me of the Boris Bus. At the end of the day, people whose job it is to design and manufacture buses, delivered a a better product more cheaply than the Mayor's efforts.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It is a slowing of the rate of growth.
That is not a slow down! It is still an increase. Can you please point me to your sources?
It’s called flattening the curve
But look at Spain in Worldometers https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/ New cases: increasing up to yesterday. Today is even higher and it's onl 1pm. New deaths: HAs been increasing for the last 5 days and the highest figure is today, and it's only 1pm
Now can you tell me where you are seeing a "flattening of the curve"?
Slowdown has to start somewhere it won’t happen overnight.
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
That's my view too.
I had Trump as toast if it were not for this crisis. Now, not so sure.
In other words I disagree with both bits of the sentiment - as expressed in the @david_herdson header last week - that he was going to win (IMO he wasn't) and is now less likely to because the economy has gone and he will preside over a public health disaster (IMO he's now more likely to win).
I expected him to win because of the economy and the awful weakness of the Democrat field. However, his handling of the crisis thus far has been very bad and I'd expect him to probably lose.
Anyone paying enough attention to reality to notice how shit he has been at handling the coronavirus crisis was never going to vote for him anyway. A crisis in general is probably good for Trump - look at how 9/11 (which Bush handled terribly) and the disastrous Iraq war improved Bush Jnr's ratings. In fact 2004 remains the only time the Republican presidential candidate got more votes than the Dem since 1988. But if (as is likely) the economy goes down and swing voters blame Trump (possible), he will probably lose.
If Americans reelect Trump after this then frankly I have little sympathy for them for what follows. I feel very sorry for those who suffer the consequences of this clown's actions through no fault of their own.
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Glad to see you've moved on from "25% of you are going to die!" to there's going to be a global depression.
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
You’re the dribbling idiot who actually said this virus was useful, as it was a good warning for when the REALLY bad virus came.
THE REALLY BAD ONE
When are you expecting the REALLY bad virus? I’d like to prepare, tbh
Hopefully we will learn the lessons from this pandemic and be better prepared for the next one. This will not be helped by idiots like you screaming that a quarter of people are going to die of this one.
Of course IF you are right and 25% of the population dies, then a 20% contraction would be a rise in GDP per capita, so it's win-win I suppose.
China couldn't sell stuff because production was clobbered by the coronavirus. Now production is almost back to normal, China doesn't have anyone to sell their stuff to.
I suspect they do. This story of the "British ventilator" reminds me of the Boris Bus. At the end of the day, people whose job it is to design and manufacture buses, delivered a a better product more cheaply than the Mayor's efforts.
Foxy has been giving updates on that project. It sounds as though it's close to going into production. Remember, it doesn't have to be good, it just has to work.
Horrifying images show coronavirus patients lying on the floor of a packed Madrid hospital as city is overrun with cases and country's death toll tops 2,000 with 462 victims in past 24 hours
Happy birthday PB - I've very much valued this site over many years, first as a lurker, then occasional contributor (albeit one guilty of too many drive-by postings).
I appreciate it for the quality of its contributors, the honesty people often have, for keeping me sane through the political turbulence of the last few years. It's helped me break out of my echo chamber and at least consider the point of view of people who I vehemently disagree with, and I have tried to continue that approach out offline. People on here mostly act with passion, but decency and with what I consider to be the birthright of every English person: tolerance and a sense of humour.
This is a worrying time for everyone, for many different reasons. Having spaces like this which allow honest interaction is going to be increasingly important in the weeks and months ahead. Long may it last, and thank you.
My daughter has tested positive today. She was cleaning for us last Wednesday and brought us some milk on Saturday.
This is as scary as the Tunisian gunman
Hopefully she has a speedy recovery, and you and the Mrs stay out of trouble in the interim.
Even 10x the official count seems low.
The local rag was saying 15x but none of us really know.
Judging by the number of people on PB who either have it, or know someone who has it, surely 100x would be closer to the mark!
Fortunately I know no one either here in Spain or in the UK who has it and I don’t think my children do either. But they are in some of the lowest infection rate areas.
Ron Paul (father of Sen. Rand Paul, recently diagnosed), just a week ago:
The Coronavirus Hoax http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/march/16/the-coronavirus-hoax/ ...Governments love crises because when the people are fearful they are more willing to give up freedoms for promises that the government will take care of them. After 9/11, for example, Americans accepted the near-total destruction of their civil liberties in the PATRIOT Act’s hollow promises of security.
It is ironic to see the same Democrats who tried to impeach President Trump last month for abuse of power demanding that the Administration grab more power and authority in the name of fighting a virus that thus far has killed less than 100 Americans.
Declaring a pandemic emergency on Friday, President Trump now claims the power to quarantine individuals suspected of being infected by the virus and, as Politico writes, “stop and seize any plane, train or automobile to stymie the spread of contagious disease.” He can even call out the military to cordon off a US city or state.
State and local authoritarians love panic as well. The mayor of Champaign, Illinois, signed an executive order declaring the power to ban the sale of guns and alcohol and cut off gas, water, or electricity to any citizen. The governor of Ohio just essentially closed his entire state.
The chief fearmonger of the Trump Administration is without a doubt Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health. Fauci is all over the media, serving up outright falsehoods to stir up even more panic. He testified to Congress that the death rate for the coronavirus is ten times that of the seasonal flu, a claim without any scientific basis.
On Face the Nation, Fauci did his best to further damage an already tanking economy by stating, “Right now, personally, myself, I wouldn’t go to a restaurant.” He has pushed for closing the entire country down for 14 days.
Over what? A virus that has thus far killed just over 5,000 worldwide and less than 100 in the United States? By contrast, tuberculosis, an old disease not much discussed these days, killed nearly 1.6 million people in 2017. Where’s the panic over this?
If anything, what people like Fauci and the other fearmongers are demanding will likely make the disease worse....
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Third series of Babylon Berlin out just now is set at the beginning of the Great Crash with insidious Nazism infiltrating all levels of German society.
Sometimes it's helpful to have one's fears put into a relatable form.
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
I suspect any economic soothsaying is even more pointless right now than usual. We've never had a situation where the major economies, which were hitherto ticking over without much problem, suddenly all agree put themselves on hold to stop a virus. This might turn out to be a glorified rained-off summer for all we know.
Exactlly - the quote from one person I know in a very senior management position for multiple businesses is "Thank f&*k for that - we can send people home".
Yes.
@Charles - this is the (1) of my 2 scenarios we were discussing the other day.
And the (2) was that some businesses (not many but some) who actually could afford to ride out the epi with everyone WFH - and were planning to - will now instead put them on furlough and claim the 80%.
See?
No - you were talking about businesses closing that would not otherwise have closed. I interpreted that as permanently.
Allowing for short term closure was exactly the plan.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Glad to see you've moved on from "25% of you are going to die!" to there's going to be a global depression.
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
You’re the dribbling idiot who actually said this virus was useful, as it was a good warning for when the REALLY bad virus came.
THE REALLY BAD ONE
When are you expecting the REALLY bad virus? I’d like to prepare, tbh
I keep saying this but I’ll say it again. This is a forum that is devoted to predicting events. However predicting the Coronavirus is something I would urge everyone, doomsdayers and just-a-bad-fluers alike, to dial back a bit. This isn’t an election or a horse race. Spreading panic, even if your predictions turn out to be right (Eadric!) is harmful. Spreading false hope, or downplaying the seriousness of this outbreak (Barnsean!), is harmful. There are no betting markets on this so far as I am aware - so it is pointless anyway.
Interesting paper from the company trying to develop an antibody therapy, on their earlier efforts against MERS.
Prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy of mAb treatment against MERS-CoV in common marmosets. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29885377 The high case-fatality rate of confirmed MERS-CoV infections underlines the urgent need for an effective treatment to reduce the disease severity and mortality. REGN3051 and REGN3048 are two fully human neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAb) against MERS-CoV that reduced virus replication in mice expressing human DPP4 upon prophylactic and therapeutic treatment. Here, we evaluated the prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy of REGN3048 and REGN3051 in the common marmoset model of MERS-CoV infection. Intravenous administration of mAb resulted in high levels of MERS-CoV-neutralizing activity in circulating blood. When animals were treated with mAbs one day before challenge, respiratory disease was less severe and, in animals treated with both REGN3048 and REGN3051, viral loads in the lungs were reduced. However, therapeutic treatment on day one after challenge was less efficacious as it did not prevent the development of severe respiratory disease and all treated animals developed bronchointerstitial pneumonia of similar severity as the control animals. Thus, mAb administration may be more effective in a prophylactic treatment regimen rather than treatment of MERS...
From Facebook (so can't vouch for its veracity) but intuitively makes sense:
“Why do we need to shut places where people group?
Remember this: VIRAL LOAD
There will be a lot about this. Why is it important? With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.
[snip]
If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.
No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.
If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or an ITU/HDU specialist) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.
REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD
Quite confused.
You don't get "viral load" from inhaling more virus.
Viral load is a measure of how fast the virus multiples in the blood stream (way way quicker than inhaling more virus particles will impact). In any event our tests are positive/negative at the moment and can't measure viral load.
That being said, they are right that being in a room with a lot of sufferers will increase the probability of catching the virus. However, it won't impact the severity of the disease
(and - on most occasions - when they say "viral load" they actually mean "viral shedding")
Thank you - as I noted, I couldn't count for its veracity.
To be clear, it doesn't really matter whether you are initially infected with one virus or a hundred thousand? So in the case of viruses the dose does not make the poison?
But once it is in the body it is in the body. Whether it is 1 cell or 1,000 or 10,000 doesn't make a difference given the speed of viral replication once in the body.
Typically how quickly does a virus replicate? The implicit theory would appear to be that the more time you have to respond, the better your response - "flattening the curve" in personal terms. Of course if it only makes a few hours difference then its largely academic.
Don't know, but will very likely be different for each virus.
Relativey better news from Iran, where they seem to be turning a corner.
Do you believe their data?!?
I don’t
HOWEVER there is a better way of judging this. I knew Coronavirus was gonna be bad from late January coz I was watching all the homemade clips on Twitter, of people in Wuhan dropping dead, hanging themselves, going mad, being welded into homes.
The flow of these clips has dried up. It tells me that China probably has got a grip on this, even if their numbers are massaged.
The same process is now unfolding in Iran. A few weeks ago there was a shed load of harrowing images coming out of Iran. These days there are fewer. Still some, but fewer.
It is certainly possible, therefore, that they really have peaked. Summer weather will be helping.
In Iran's case, it might be that is it just running out of new people to infect?
So in Scotland you just need 8-7 to get a conviction?
Yes.
Although there is the terrible verdict of 'not proven' available in Scotland.
Nothing terrible about it, just means the prosecution have not proved the accused is guilty.
We in the rest of the UK refer to this as "innocent". Not "we think they're guilty, we can't prove it but we're going to stigmatise them anyway."
There is that risk.
There's also the risk that "not guilty" gets interpreted in the same way in the rest of the UK, especially with regard to crimes that have a very low conviction rate.
There's also the argument that jurors may be less likely to use "beyond reasonable doubt" as the level of proof needed, if they are in a binary-outcome situation.
This is more or less what kinabalu has been saying for a while: Trump's performance has been terrible (electorally, not just in other ways), but nevertheless the crisis increases his chances of winning. And other people have mostly been disagreeing.
So maybe kinabalu should write the thread, if willing?
Well I have plenty of time on my hands being holed up.
I was planning to "debut" with either private schools - "The British Disease" - or one on Corbyn - "He Served" - but Trump is definitely more relevant right now than either of those.
From Facebook (so can't vouch for its veracity) but intuitively makes sense:
“Why do we need to shut places where people group?
Remember this: VIRAL LOAD
There will be a lot about this. Why is it important? With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.
[snip]
If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.
No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.
If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or an ITU/HDU specialist) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.
REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD
Quite confused.
You don't get "viral load" from inhaling more virus.
Viral load is a measure of how fast the virus multiples in the blood stream (way way quicker than inhaling more virus particles will impact). In any event our tests are positive/negative at the moment and can't measure viral load.
That being said, they are right that being in a room with a lot of sufferers will increase the probability of catching the virus. However, it won't impact the severity of the disease
(and - on most occasions - when they say "viral load" they actually mean "viral shedding")
Thank you - as I noted, I couldn't count for its veracity.
To be clear, it doesn't really matter whether you are initially infected with one virus or a hundred thousand? So in the case of viruses the dose does not make the poison?
It's the wrong measure.
In theory it only takes one virus cell to enter your body for you to be infected.
If you are in a room with lots of infected people you will have more encounters with virus cells increasing the probability of infection.
But once it is in the body it is in the body. Whether it is 1 cell or 1,000 or 10,000 doesn't make a difference given the speed of viral replication once in the body.
(And as most people don't initially have antibodies you can't argue that "if it's only one cell then the body can fight it off more easily")
That is NOT what the Doctor I heard on the radio yesterday was saying. They were making the point that you have to try to minimise the load you get as it DOES make a difference once in the body. If you get a small dose to infect you it starts to replicate and your body can start to fight it off - if you get a large does to infect you it can make you critically ill sooner because your body can't cope.
That they were saying is why if you get ill then you must isolate even from your own household as much as possible, not share a towel etc - as even if its likely you might infect them either way you want to not overwhelm them with the infection before they start producing their own antibodies.
Yes, that's my understanding too.
Charles' comment is based on what is possible in theory: infection by a single cell. For the overwhelming majority of infectious diseases, including ones that an individual hasn't encountered before, a much greater number is required to have a non-negligible probability of developing.
The reality though, is if you get it you get it.
Things like not sharing towels, etc are good practice to reduce the risk of transmission vs reducing the severity of the disease if it is caught, as this is overwhelmingly based on other factors
Exactlly - the quote from one person I know in a very senior management position for multiple businesses is "Thank f&*k for that - we can send people home".
Yes.
@Charles - this is the (1) of my 2 scenarios we were discussing the other day.
And the (2) was that some businesses (not many but some) who actually could afford to ride out the epi with everyone WFH - and were planning to - will now instead put them on furlough and claim the 80%.
See?
No - you were talking about businesses closing that would not otherwise have closed. I interpreted that as permanently.
Allowing for short term closure was exactly the plan.
Yes - for example, one of the business my friend was talking about has an HQ building in London - the stores are shutting. The majority of the staff will be on the scheme, the others will be supporting the online business from home. Result, the office can be completely shut. No-one travelling - public transport or otherwise.
The hope is that when normality returns the HQ can be started up again rapidly.
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Glad to see you've moved on from "25% of you are going to die!" to there's going to be a global depression.
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
You’re the dribbling idiot who actually said this virus was useful, as it was a good warning for when the REALLY bad virus came.
THE REALLY BAD ONE
When are you expecting the REALLY bad virus? I’d like to prepare, tbh
I keep saying this but I’ll say it again. This is a forum that is devoted to predicting events. However predicting the Coronavirus is something I would urge everyone, doomsdayers and just-a-bad-fluers alike, to dial back a bit. This isn’t an election or a horse race. Spreading panic, even if your predictions turn out to be right (Eadric!) is harmful. Spreading false hope, or downplaying the seriousness of this outbreak (Barnsean!), is harmful. There are no betting markets on this so far as I am aware - so it is pointless anyway.
I'm happy to agree with the overriding sentiment of this, but your last sentence seems clearly wrong. Firstly, all short to medium term investment decisions are now proxy bets on how the virus and aftermath will play out in that timeframe. Secondly, and more directly given the nature of this site, the impact on the US general election (and presumably others - next year's London mayoral election for one) will definitely be affected significantly by events there between now and then, and it'd deeply unclear in what way.
One of my elderly parents had to go for a regular test at the GP's this morning. Apparently, no messing about with checking in, using a waiting room, only one medical person came into contact with her during her whole visit.
I have always wondered why we have waiting rooms in GP surgeries. Loads of sick people sitting there infecting other sick people.
With smart phones etc, do we really need that, or should we now move to a model where they beep your phone when ready and you just go straight through.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
Paradise... apart from the expected 10-20% contraction in your economy.
Last time that happened to Germany you gave us Hitler, Nazism, world war 2, and the Holocaust.
Could you try and avoid that this time? Kthx
Get real, Eadric. You know very well that we just can't help ourselves. We're already building fleets of StuKas.
Stunningly success supermarket raid by my better half today. Toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, paracetamol, bread, even some pasta. Some things low in stock but most not out. Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?
Stunningly success supermarket raid by my better half today. Toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, paracetamol, bread, even some pasta. Some things low in stock but most not out. Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?
There is only so much bog roll one man can need !!!!
Stunningly success supermarket raid by my better half today. Toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, paracetamol, bread, even some pasta. Some things low in stock but most not out. Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?
"Stunningly success supermarket raid .... Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?"
One of my elderly parents had to go for a regular test at the GP's this morning. Apparently, no messing about with checking in, using a waiting room, only one medical person came into contact with her during her whole visit.
I have always wondered why we have waiting rooms in GP surgeries. Loads of sick people sitting there infecting other sick people.
With smart phones etc, do we really need that, or should we now move to a model where they beep your phone when ready and you just go straight through.
Historical inertia.
I could retell the story of a friend in Operations Research who received some interesting feedback on his attempt to advise an NHS hospital on improving throughput.
Stunningly success supermarket raid by my better half today. Toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, paracetamol, bread, even some pasta. Some things low in stock but most not out. Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?
Suppliers to restaurants will suddenly have a lot of extra stock - they will be diverting to supermarkets. Some unusual brands/packaging may appear over the next few weeks.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
Paradise... apart from the expected 10-20% contraction in your economy.
Last time that happened to Germany you gave us Hitler, Nazism, world war 2, and the Holocaust.
Could you try and avoid that this time? Kthx
Get real, Eadric. You know very well that we just can't help ourselves. We're already building fleets of StuKas.
And you just know there's a whole strata of British/English society dying to build fleets of Spitfires just in case (however if they put Grayling in charge it'll be fleets of Boulton Paul Defiants).
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
Paradise... apart from the expected 10-20% contraction in your economy.
Last time that happened to Germany you gave us Hitler, Nazism, world war 2, and the Holocaust.
Could you try and avoid that this time? Kthx
Get real, Eadric. You know very well that we just can't help ourselves. We're already building fleets of StuKas.
WWII was another example of a bad sequel - taking the original and just turning everything up to 11....
Stunningly success supermarket raid by my better half today. Toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, paracetamol, bread, even some pasta. Some things low in stock but most not out. Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?
Suppliers to restaurants will suddenly have a lot of extra stock - they will be diverting to supermarkets. Some unusual brands/packaging may appear over the next few weeks.
I’m hoping the panic buyers have now panic bought everything they wanted and as the supermarkets step up their supply game this will start to become less insane.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
An alternative theory, advanced by the WSJ, is that German patients so far have been younger and therefore less likely to die - but that too will change....
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Glad to see you've moved on from "25% of you are going to die!" to there's going to be a global depression.
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
You’re the dribbling idiot who actually said this virus was useful, as it was a good warning for when the REALLY bad virus came.
THE REALLY BAD ONE
When are you expecting the REALLY bad virus? I’d like to prepare, tbh
Hopefully we will learn the lessons from this pandemic and be better prepared for the next one. This will not be helped by idiots like you screaming that a quarter of people are going to die of this one.
Of course IF you are right and 25% of the population dies, then a 20% contraction would be a rise in GDP per capita, so it's win-win I suppose.
But when? When is the REALLY bad virus coming? You Know, the virus which will REALLY be nasty, unlike this one? Do you have a timescale? Because I’d like to get loo roll for the REALLY serious disease, as against this minor sniffle.
You utter, utter twit.
It is quite likely that sooner or later we will face a disease that is potentially several times worse than this one. Hopefully we will have learnt some lessons. If this was a minor sniffle then the chances of us learning lessons would be pretty small.
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Glad to see you've moved on from "25% of you are going to die!" to there's going to be a global depression.
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
You’re the dribbling idiot who actually said this virus was useful, as it was a good warning for when the REALLY bad virus came.
THE REALLY BAD ONE
When are you expecting the REALLY bad virus? I’d like to prepare, tbh
Hopefully we will learn the lessons from this pandemic and be better prepared for the next one. This will not be helped by idiots like you screaming that a quarter of people are going to die of this one.
Of course IF you are right and 25% of the population dies, then a 20% contraction would be a rise in GDP per capita, so it's win-win I suppose.
But when? When is the REALLY bad virus coming? You Know, the virus which will REALLY be nasty, unlike this one? Do you have a timescale? Because I’d like to get loo roll for the REALLY serious disease, as against this minor sniffle.
You utter, utter twit.
This was posted on this site by someone called "eadric" on February 3:
Yep. Having been either housebound or bedridden for a week I have done a lot of thinking about this
It is inevitable that one day a virus like this will cross the barrier, and be genuinely fucking terrible and lethal - 30, 40% mortality - rather than the relatively kindly SARS and corona that we have experienced to date.
What will that do to us? How would we cope?
I also now realize that health experts and microbiologists and epidemiologists must already be anticipating this, hence their reaction to my possible case, which is a mixture of concern, chaos, denial, and honest but anxious ignorance
Stunningly success supermarket raid by my better half today. Toilet rolls, kitchen rolls, paracetamol, bread, even some pasta. Some things low in stock but most not out. Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?
Same here in Penarth. Wife walked into a local Sainsbury’s. Well stocked. Calm. Short queue. She bought a chicken.
She also taught the locals about social distancing and they fell into line!
Us fancy Londoners fleeing the plague can be useful, as well as a burden.
Maybe its because I'm a Londoner That I was arrested by a cop in a hazmat suit.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
Paradise... apart from the expected 10-20% contraction in your economy.
Last time that happened to Germany you gave us Hitler, Nazism, world war 2, and the Holocaust.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world. Amazing, fantastic, tremendous. And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German: "Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
What are the political ramifications of a global Depression? There are so many the mind blanks at the glare.
Germany is handling Coronavirus better than most, but they are now anticipating a brutal contraction of 10-20% GDP in a year
It could be worse, therefore, in America and China - and France, Britain, Italy.
The last Depression led to Nazism and a world war.
I’m going to have a cup of tea.
Glad to see you've moved on from "25% of you are going to die!" to there's going to be a global depression.
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
You’re the dribbling idiot who actually said this virus was useful, as it was a good warning for when the REALLY bad virus came.
THE REALLY BAD ONE
When are you expecting the REALLY bad virus? I’d like to prepare, tbh
Hopefully we will learn the lessons from this pandemic and be better prepared for the next one. This will not be helped by idiots like you screaming that a quarter of people are going to die of this one.
Of course IF you are right and 25% of the population dies, then a 20% contraction would be a rise in GDP per capita, so it's win-win I suppose.
But when? When is the REALLY bad virus coming? You Know, the virus which will REALLY be nasty, unlike this one? Do you have a timescale? Because I’d like to get loo roll for the REALLY serious disease, as against this minor sniffle.
You utter, utter twit.
It is quite likely that sooner or later we will face a disease that is potentially several times worse than this one. Hopefully we will have learnt some lessons. If this was a minor sniffle then the chances of us learning lessons would be pretty small.
Moron.
Absolutely agree. The relative non-severity of Coronavirus, whilst this is cold comfort to the sufferers, is something to be profoundly grateful for. There was no 'reason' for this not to be far more deadly.
Are you there Gideonwise? How are you and your wife doing?
Yes. That was a disturbing post last night. Positive update would be good to hear.
I heard from Gideonwise later last night and he said that the symptoms had eased. Hopefully he will be along later to confirm that himself.
That would be good to hear. Similarly positive news from all our other PBers with family under the cosh.
Two of my grandchildren now have the dry coughs and high temperatures. Their father, my son-in-law, felt ill two days ago but now has no symptoms except he has entirely lost his sense of smell and taste. My daughter is trying to keep her third child who is asthmatic isolated from the others. The NHS radiologist who lives next door them has the virus and had difficulty breathing last night. Not good news. I think it is very widespread, much more than the official estimates.
Comments
Women tend to have fewer ACE2 receptors IIRC
To me there are too many unknown factors but it is certain it is going to damage economies, even if it went away by the late summer
Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose.
Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
---------------------------------------------------------
Oddment. Bro-in-law had similar symptoms round about Christmas, as did Grandson 1 and his wife, who are not in any sort of contact with bro-in-law. The latter has quite a few overseas trips, grandson & wife don't but have a wide circle of friends.
And Happy Birthday PB
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
https://t.co/ujvbxy1DS8
New cases: increasing up to yesterday. Today is even higher and it's onl 1pm.
New deaths: HAs been increasing for the last 5 days and the highest figure is today, and it's only 1pm
Now can you tell me where you are seeing a "flattening of the curve"?
https://twitter.com/SCMPNews/status/1241971437839278084
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8142013/Horrifying-images-coronavirus-patients-lying-floor-packed-Madrid-hospital.html
Keep drinking the tea, it seems to be making you a lot more chipper.
This is as scary as the Tunisian gunman
So maybe kinabalu should write the thread, if willing?
Even 10x the official count seems low.
The country's lockdown is expected to be extended until April 11 and the government is banning all international arrivals that are not essential or Spaniards returning from abroad.
Spain’s elderly population is taking a bigger hit than in other countries: 67 per cent of deaths in Spain are people over 80. In Italy, the figure is 50 per cent, and much lower in South Korea and China, but they are very different demographically to Spain – Italy is not, though.
12 per cent of positives in Spain are among health workers – three times higher than China and worse than other countries that have given out this data.
Facemasks and other protective equipment is lacking, and Spain’s national government was forced to permit regional government to make their own purchases at a meeting on Sunday after previously commandeering regional supplies.
A government official last week said Spain had done 350,000 tests, but that was later changed to “purchased”. It is thought the country is lagging behind on testing.
More than 30,000 fines for breaking the lockdown rules were handed out by last Friday.
If Americans reelect Trump after this then frankly I have little sympathy for them for what follows. I feel very sorry for those who suffer the consequences of this clown's actions through no fault of their own.
Of course IF you are right and 25% of the population dies, then a 20% contraction would be a rise in GDP per capita, so it's win-win I suppose.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1241446488846155777?s=20
I appreciate it for the quality of its contributors, the honesty people often have, for keeping me sane through the political turbulence of the last few years. It's helped me break out of my echo chamber and at least consider the point of view of people who I vehemently disagree with, and I have tried to continue that approach out offline. People on here mostly act with passion, but decency and with what I consider to be the birthright of every English person: tolerance and a sense of humour.
This is a worrying time for everyone, for many different reasons. Having spaces like this which allow honest interaction is going to be increasingly important in the weeks and months ahead. Long may it last, and thank you.
The Coronavirus Hoax
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/march/16/the-coronavirus-hoax/
...Governments love crises because when the people are fearful they are more willing to give up freedoms for promises that the government will take care of them. After 9/11, for example, Americans accepted the near-total destruction of their civil liberties in the PATRIOT Act’s hollow promises of security.
It is ironic to see the same Democrats who tried to impeach President Trump last month for abuse of power demanding that the Administration grab more power and authority in the name of fighting a virus that thus far has killed less than 100 Americans.
Declaring a pandemic emergency on Friday, President Trump now claims the power to quarantine individuals suspected of being infected by the virus and, as Politico writes, “stop and seize any plane, train or automobile to stymie the spread of contagious disease.” He can even call out the military to cordon off a US city or state.
State and local authoritarians love panic as well. The mayor of Champaign, Illinois, signed an executive order declaring the power to ban the sale of guns and alcohol and cut off gas, water, or electricity to any citizen. The governor of Ohio just essentially closed his entire state.
The chief fearmonger of the Trump Administration is without a doubt Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health. Fauci is all over the media, serving up outright falsehoods to stir up even more panic. He testified to Congress that the death rate for the coronavirus is ten times that of the seasonal flu, a claim without any scientific basis.
On Face the Nation, Fauci did his best to further damage an already tanking economy by stating, “Right now, personally, myself, I wouldn’t go to a restaurant.” He has pushed for closing the entire country down for 14 days.
Over what? A virus that has thus far killed just over 5,000 worldwide and less than 100 in the United States? By contrast, tuberculosis, an old disease not much discussed these days, killed nearly 1.6 million people in 2017. Where’s the panic over this?
If anything, what people like Fauci and the other fearmongers are demanding will likely make the disease worse....
Sometimes it's helpful to have one's fears put into a relatable form.
Allowing for short term closure was exactly the plan.
Secondly, catching up on the overnight thread, I see that there is still a bit of confusion on how exactly we Germans are cheating and fiddling the numbers, so I'd like to take the opportunity and try to sort it out for you.
Dedicated Lexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a neo-liberal, hyper-capitalist paradise where the corporate vultures are allowed, and even encouraged, to exploit the 'workers'.
Meanwhile, properly patriotic Brexiteers have explained for many decades how the Fourth Reich is a culturally marxist, hyper-trotskyite abomination where good, honest, buccaneering businesspeople suffer so immensely under the yoke of the socialist workers' paradise.
While simpler minds may still argue which opinion is the correct one, those more capable of holistic thinking will long have recognised that both these sets of perfectly valid assessments are completely accurate at the exact same time.
So, the one racing certainty we can safely take away from the above deliberations is that contemporary Germany is, in fact, a paradise. Of one sort or another. As close to heaven on earth as you can ever possibly get.
Great country. Greatest country in the world.
Amazing, fantastic, tremendous.
And this undeniable fact may then go a long way in explaining why the Hun is somewhat reluctant to shed this mortal coil.
So, once again, this time in German:
"Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Pb.com!"
Apparently it works on chickens.....
Prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy of mAb treatment against MERS-CoV in common marmosets.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29885377
The high case-fatality rate of confirmed MERS-CoV infections underlines the urgent need for an effective treatment to reduce the disease severity and mortality. REGN3051 and REGN3048 are two fully human neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAb) against MERS-CoV that reduced virus replication in mice expressing human DPP4 upon prophylactic and therapeutic treatment. Here, we evaluated the prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy of REGN3048 and REGN3051 in the common marmoset model of MERS-CoV infection. Intravenous administration of mAb resulted in high levels of MERS-CoV-neutralizing activity in circulating blood. When animals were treated with mAbs one day before challenge, respiratory disease was less severe and, in animals treated with both REGN3048 and REGN3051, viral loads in the lungs were reduced. However, therapeutic treatment on day one after challenge was less efficacious as it did not prevent the development of severe respiratory disease and all treated animals developed bronchointerstitial pneumonia of similar severity as the control animals. Thus, mAb administration may be more effective in a prophylactic treatment regimen rather than treatment of MERS...
There's also the risk that "not guilty" gets interpreted in the same way in the rest of the UK, especially with regard to crimes that have a very low conviction rate.
There's also the argument that jurors may be less likely to use "beyond reasonable doubt" as the level of proof needed, if they are in a binary-outcome situation.
https://twitter.com/khalafroula/status/1242048203962318860?s=20
I was planning to "debut" with either private schools - "The British Disease" - or one on Corbyn - "He Served" - but Trump is definitely more relevant right now than either of those.
Things like not sharing towels, etc are good practice to reduce the risk of transmission vs reducing the severity of the disease if it is caught, as this is overwhelmingly based on other factors
The hope is that when normality returns the HQ can be started up again rapidly.
I have always wondered why we have waiting rooms in GP surgeries. Loads of sick people sitting there infecting other sick people.
With smart phones etc, do we really need that, or should we now move to a model where they beep your phone when ready and you just go straight through.
"Big boy talk" - Office
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ0xayILu3E
Looks like the govt is putting pressure on shops and sit in restaurants to close.
Have we seen the worst of the panic buying?"
I could retell the story of a friend in Operations Research who received some interesting feedback on his attempt to advise an NHS hospital on improving throughput.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/collins-blasts-democrats-for-blocking-coronavirus-stimulus-plan-says-theyre-playing-with-fire
Moron.
Yep. Having been either housebound or bedridden for a week I have done a lot of thinking about this
It is inevitable that one day a virus like this will cross the barrier, and be genuinely fucking terrible and lethal - 30, 40% mortality - rather than the relatively kindly SARS and corona that we have experienced to date.
What will that do to us? How would we cope?
I also now realize that health experts and microbiologists and epidemiologists must already be anticipating this, hence their reaction to my possible case, which is a mixture of concern, chaos, denial, and honest but anxious ignorance
I could be just another man flu. Or Typhoid Mary
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2701841#Comment_2701841
That I was arrested by a cop in a hazmat suit.
Still needs a bit of work.
https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1241478075508035584?s=20