Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
The media has always been partisan, 'The Independent' tried for a while...
I remember when the Times and even the Telegraph's first few pages gave you the news and the facts. They had strong opinion pieces and editorials but they were separate. Maybe 30 years ago. I agree that the Indy started that way too.
Call after call after call on LBC from businesses who can't operate but have not been shut down and are not eligible for what Sunak has offered. Its going to collapse sole trading and SMEs unless they do something in their 3rd budget.
They will have to. There is no alternative. The government just has to bite the bullet on this one. I am sure Sunak knows this. It may be that others will not accept it. Forget the economics for a moment, these people are a key Tory-voting demographic. Leaving them hanging makes noi sense at any level.
If you are self employed you are an entrepreneur not a wage earner and set yourself up in the knowledge you would be on your own financially. The government has provided loans to businesses and offered to pay 80% of wages of wage earners and offered easier and quicker temporary access to Universal Credit and sick pay for the self employed but every grant it offers during the crisis ultimately leads to higher taxes post crisis for taxpayers
I see your point but we are dealing with something extraordinary here. If you are a S/E plumber, for instance, and you want to carry on working, and you have clients who have jobs for you to do, but are prevented by carrying on your trade due to government policy, then surely you have a case for compensation. In this example it is the government that is stopping your earnings, not the virus or lack of trading opportunities.
The government has not yet stopped plumbers from working and for the average plumber most of their clients are domestic households not businesses and as stated they can still apply for loans if necessary
I saw my plumber last week. He said he had plenty of work and was booked up for months. He recommended some precautionary work on the boiler and it didn't sound like I was going to get an appointment for a while. Thursday his assistant phones and suddenly there is lots of availability. So clearly such tradespeople are now getting lots of cancellations
Some but clearly they are still working as shown by the fact he is going to work on your boiler
I'm confused. Should we be social distancing or not? Should we be working from home to avoid people being in close contact or not? Should we be going to each other's houses or not?
Its unsafe for Nandos to offer a takeaway business and we should all Listen to the Prime Minister and his Clear Advice. But John the plumber absolutely should be doing his normal business going into house after house after house.
I suspect that HYUFD knows the contradictory nature of his utterances but is enough of a political sociopath not to care. Its just Other People after all, what do peons matter?
Happy birthday PB from the most idiotic poster it’s ever had.
Culture
I posted not long ago it’s our liberal/capitalist culture not the science controlling the governments response, and making U.K. response weak and error prone. i was called the most idiotic Poster in PB history! You remember? Changed your mind yet?
The differences around the world is cultural. It’s not the Chinese Plague it’s the wrapped up in consumerism without a conscious awareness of what your lives and society’s have become plaque. Hence, bang, straight into those countries before they realised what’s hitting them. Hence the panic buying of toilet roles and riots outside supermarkets.
I used the observation of Jerome, on holiday in Germany and eyes open at the cultural differences. There are keep off the grass signs in the park and the Germans are observing em, in complete contrast to London where Jerome lives.
Culture.
You were supreme in your ignorance it was science guiding the government not culture, repeating it over and over brain washing yourselves.
You see now you were wrong, we are a very liberal country, a liberal PM not an authoritarian PM, finding it hard to do the authoritarian thing, thisis the very heart of our culture. And a nations culture has been driving response to this the whole world over, not the science.
I`m finding it hard from you post to divine the point you are making. The previous post that you referred to was IMO unfairly criticised. Are you now defending liberal democracy or attacking it?
OT we finally got a glimmer of an admission from Abe that the Olympics might need to be postponed. This comes after a couple of teams and I think the Canadian olympic association or whatever made public requests to postpone.
I don't *think* I believe the conspiracy theories about Japan deliberately holding back covid19 testing in the hope of keeping the Olympics going but it would be really nice not to have to worry about it.
If anyone has any contacts with anyone in British olympic teams or the related organizations it would be really helpful if a few more people could stick their nails in the coffin...
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
I don't know, when his voters start dropping dead it might hurt his chances. I had Trump as odds on until now. His response has been so inept that I don't think he's going to win even some pretty red states at this rate.
OT we finally got a glimmer of an admission from Abe that the Olympics might need to be postponed. This comes after a couple of teams and I think the Canadian olympic association or whatever made public requests to postpone.
I don't *think* I believe the conspiracy theories about Japan deliberately holding back covid19 testing in the hope of keeping the Olympics going but it would be really nice not to have to worry about it.
If anyone has any contacts with anyone in British olympic teams or the related organizations it would be really helpful if a few more people could stick their nails in the coffin...
The behaviour of officials in Japan over this issue has been an outrage.
BBC Radio 4 got UK athletics bigwigs on this morning, all of whom agreed it should be postponed. No word from Seb Coe yet, though.
Best of luck to Max, fingers x’d for Gideon (and happy B to PB)
The fact so many of us on here are already personally impacted shows how deeply this has penetrated.
Out in the real world most of my friends and family now know someone who is suspected or confirmed.
I know loads of people now with the virus...or with symptoms that are as good as....
And weirdly, I still don't know anybody with it, or even suspected... And I have friends all over the country. Although obviously most of my peer group are mid to late 20s.
Tesco in Newcastle had plenty of food today. Bread, rice, eggs, toilet roll, even some pasta.
To add to this point, Tesco was full of old people, taking no notice at all of "social distancing". Even making it hard for me to socially distance from them, by blocking isles with their trolly, or coming really close when I was taking things from shelves. It begs belief.
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
During a national crisis people get patriotic.....history is full of leaders managing to deflect their own weaknesses onto something else....
FWIW...I think those ratings are still quite terrible for Trump...a less divisive leader , an Obama, Bush, Clinton...would be getting ratings in the 80/90's
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
Ironically, it seems to me that plenty of remainers are ignoring the experts at the moment.
Although the polling indicates that Leavers are more likely to believe that the dangers of coronavirus are being overplayed. Republicans believe the same in the US, apparently.
More seriously, I suspect we will be hearing a lot less of Leavers and Remainers after this is done.
There is a distinction, is there not, between being sceptical about the seriousness of a situation, and not doing what you are being asked?
I'm still doing a five mile walk most days, making every effort to avoid getting too close to other people. I think I'm being sensible and the chances of me contracting it taking such a walk are slim. However, if the government asks me to stop going out except to buy food or for some other absolutely essential reason, then I will stop.
Similarly, I have gone for runs the last two days. I have managed to keep more than two metres from everyone, but it hasn't always been easy. I passed some large-ish groups who showed no inclination to keep their distance from me.
The reports have made me question whether I should do that because, even though I am sticking to the guidelines, I am perhaps contributing to the feeling amongst such groups that what they are doing is okay.
I still haven't decided whether I will go for a run today. If I do, and I encounter such groups again, I will simply turn around and go home. It may be a lot harder to get good quality exercise at home, but it clearly is possible.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
From Facebook (so can't vouch for its veracity) but intuitively makes sense:
“Why do we need to shut places where people group?
Remember this: VIRAL LOAD
There will be a lot about this. Why is it important? With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.
[snip]
If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.
No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.
If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or an ITU/HDU specialist) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.
REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD
Quite confused.
You don't get "viral load" from inhaling more virus.
Viral load is a measure of how fast the virus multiples in the blood stream (way way quicker than inhaling more virus particles will impact). In any event our tests are positive/negative at the moment and can't measure viral load.
That being said, they are right that being in a room with a lot of sufferers will increase the probability of catching the virus. However, it won't impact the severity of the disease
(and - on most occasions - when they say "viral load" they actually mean "viral shedding")
Thank you - as I noted, I couldn't count for its veracity.
To be clear, it doesn't really matter whether you are initially infected with one virus or a hundred thousand? So in the case of viruses the dose does not make the poison?
But once it is in the body it is in the body. Whether it is 1 cell or 1,000 or 10,000 doesn't make a difference given the speed of viral replication once in the body.
Typically how quickly does a virus replicate? The implicit theory would appear to be that the more time you have to respond, the better your response - "flattening the curve" in personal terms. Of course if it only makes a few hours difference then its largely academic.
Happy birthday PB from the most idiotic poster it’s ever had.
Culture
I posted not long ago it’s our liberal/capitalist culture not the science controlling the governments response, and making U.K. response weak and error prone. i was called the most idiotic Poster in PB history! You remember? Changed your mind yet?
The differences around the world is cultural. It’s not the Chinese Plague it’s the wrapped up in consumerism without a conscious awareness of what your lives and society’s have become plaque. Hence, bang, straight into those countries before they realised what’s hitting them. Hence the panic buying of toilet roles and riots outside supermarkets.
I used the observation of Jerome, on holiday in Germany and eyes open at the cultural differences. There are keep off the grass signs in the park and the Germans are observing em, in complete contrast to London where Jerome lives.
Culture.
You were supreme in your ignorance it was science guiding the government not culture, repeating it over and over brain washing yourselves.
You see now you were wrong, we are a very liberal country, a liberal PM not an authoritarian PM, finding it hard to do the authoritarian thing, thisis the very heart of our culture. And a nations culture has been driving response to this the whole world over, not the science.
I`m finding it hard from you post to divine the point you are making. The previous post that you referred to was IMO unfairly criticised. Are you now defending liberal democracy or attacking it?
Does your ultra capitalist consumerist society have any conscious awareness at all? Does your science?
In our lifetimes we have sat back as conscious awareness has been eroded in our lives and our society. Religious observances reduced to an isle in the supermarket. And the impact on our politics the good balance of our liberal democracy even worse.
And science has always been devoid of conscious awareness.
Tesco in Newcastle had plenty of food today. Bread, rice, eggs, toilet roll, even some pasta.
To add to this point, Tesco was full of old people, taking no notice at all of "social distancing". Even making it hard for me to socially distance from them, by blocking isles with their trolly, or coming really close when I was taking things from shelves. It begs belief.
As many have said before. The government Comms strategy has been appalling. They need 30s slots in between each program with a clear message about staying home and the risk of death for people in vulnerable groups of going outside and for younger people of the risk of spreading the virus to vulnerable people by going outside unnecessarily.
My sister is currently one week into 2 weeks shut in a Melbourne hotel room. She did have a flight booked out on Singapore Airlines, but that is not happening now.
OT we finally got a glimmer of an admission from Abe that the Olympics might need to be postponed. This comes after a couple of teams and I think the Canadian olympic association or whatever made public requests to postpone.
I don't *think* I believe the conspiracy theories about Japan deliberately holding back covid19 testing in the hope of keeping the Olympics going but it would be really nice not to have to worry about it.
If anyone has any contacts with anyone in British olympic teams or the related organizations it would be really helpful if a few more people could stick their nails in the coffin...
Think they already have. I believe Seb Coe (remember him?) and the head of the British Olympic Association have called for postponement.
OT we finally got a glimmer of an admission from Abe that the Olympics might need to be postponed. This comes after a couple of teams and I think the Canadian olympic association or whatever made public requests to postpone.
I don't *think* I believe the conspiracy theories about Japan deliberately holding back covid19 testing in the hope of keeping the Olympics going but it would be really nice not to have to worry about it.
If anyone has any contacts with anyone in British olympic teams or the related organizations it would be really helpful if a few more people could stick their nails in the coffin...
The behaviour of officials in Japan over this issue has been an outrage.
BBC Radio 4 got UK athletics bigwigs on this morning, all of whom agreed it should be postponed. No word from Seb Coe yet, though.
Best of luck to Max, fingers x’d for Gideon (and happy B to PB)
The fact so many of us on here are already personally impacted shows how deeply this has penetrated.
Out in the real world most of my friends and family now know someone who is suspected or confirmed.
I know loads of people now with the virus...or with symptoms that are as good as....
And weirdly, I still don't know anybody with it, or even suspected... And I have friends all over the country. Although obviously most of my peer group are mid to late 20s.
I know quite a few people in the NHS....teachers...also it's gone through a firm of solicitors whom I know here in Oxford like a dose of salts...my wife's work has had people returning from international trips (Spain particularly)
Funnily enough only one of my Italian connections (an old boy in Pesaro) has been known to have it......and he's now at the crematorium waiting to be incinerated sadly...RIP...
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
Wonder where they got all these ventilators from, as the whole world is trying to buy them and the big international players that make them, their increase in output is tiny compared to the demand.
Local manufacturers.
They interviewed the biggest UK manufacturer the other day and they weren't talking about being able to make 1000s etc in a week, just a few 100.
Amazing how many people seem to think that "manufacturers" are an enormously homogeneous group who all use basically the same type of kit to just make anything.
Just because you make cars or washing machines doesn't mean you can just immediately make respirators!
"Noel Gallagher, you can write rock songs, but please can you write 100 operas a week starting tomorrow? And by the way they have to be every bit as good as Puccini and Bizet"
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Best of luck to Max, fingers x’d for Gideon (and happy B to PB)
The fact so many of us on here are already personally impacted shows how deeply this has penetrated.
Out in the real world most of my friends and family now know someone who is suspected or confirmed.
I know loads of people now with the virus...or with symptoms that are as good as....
And weirdly, I still don't know anybody with it, or even suspected... And I have friends all over the country. Although obviously most of my peer group are mid to late 20s.
I know quite a few people in the NHS....teachers...also it's gone through a firm of solicitors whom I know here in Oxford like a dose of salts...my wife's work has had people returning from international trips (Spain particularly)
Funnily enough only one of my Italian connections (an old boy in Pesaro) has been known to have it......and he's now at the crematorium waiting to be incinerated sadly...RIP...
Happy birthday PB from the most idiotic poster it’s ever had.
Culture
I posted not long ago it’s our liberal/capitalist culture not the science controlling the governments response, and making U.K. response weak and error prone. i was called the most idiotic Poster in PB history! You remember? Changed your mind yet?
The differences around the world is cultural. It’s not the Chinese Plague it’s the wrapped up in consumerism without a conscious awareness of what your lives and society’s have become plaque. Hence, bang, straight into those countries before they realised what’s hitting them. Hence the panic buying of toilet roles and riots outside supermarkets.
I used the observation of Jerome, on holiday in Germany and eyes open at the cultural differences. There are keep off the grass signs in the park and the Germans are observing em, in complete contrast to London where Jerome lives.
Culture.
You were supreme in your ignorance it was science guiding the government not culture, repeating it over and over brain washing yourselves.
You see now you were wrong, we are a very liberal country, a liberal PM not an authoritarian PM, finding it hard to do the authoritarian thing, thisis the very heart of our culture. And a nations culture has been driving response to this the whole world over, not the science.
I`m finding it hard from you post to divine the point you are making. The previous post that you referred to was IMO unfairly criticised. Are you now defending liberal democracy or attacking it?
Does your ultra capitalist consumerist society have any conscious awareness at all? Does your science?
In our lifetimes we have sat back as conscious awareness has been eroded in our lives and our society. Religious observances reduced to an isle in the supermarket. And the impact on our politics the good balance of our liberal democracy even worse.
And science has always been devoid of conscious awareness.
I think that there is some meat somewhere in your posts - from a philosophical perspective. Maybe someone else can weigh in?
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
From Facebook (so can't vouch for its veracity) but intuitively makes sense:
“Why do we need to shut places where people group?
Remember this: VIRAL LOAD
There will be a lot about this. Why is it important? With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.
[snip]
If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.
No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.
If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or an ITU/HDU specialist) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.
REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD
Quite confused.
You don't get "viral load" from inhaling more virus.
Viral load is a measure of how fast the virus multiples in the blood stream (way way quicker than inhaling more virus particles will impact). In any event our tests are positive/negative at the moment and can't measure viral load.
That being said, they are right that being in a room with a lot of sufferers will increase the probability of catching the virus. However, it won't impact the severity of the disease
(and - on most occasions - when they say "viral load" they actually mean "viral shedding")
Thank you - as I noted, I couldn't count for its veracity.
To be clear, it doesn't really matter whether you are initially infected with one virus or a hundred thousand? So in the case of viruses the dose does not make the poison?
It's the wrong measure.
In theory it only takes one virus cell to enter your body for you to be infected.
If you are in a room with lots of infected people you will have more encounters with virus cells increasing the probability of infection.
But once it is in the body it is in the body. Whether it is 1 cell or 1,000 or 10,000 doesn't make a difference given the speed of viral replication once in the body.
(And as most people don't initially have antibodies you can't argue that "if it's only one cell then the body can fight it off more easily")
That is NOT what the Doctor I heard on the radio yesterday was saying. They were making the point that you have to try to minimise the load you get as it DOES make a difference once in the body. If you get a small dose to infect you it starts to replicate and your body can start to fight it off - if you get a large does to infect you it can make you critically ill sooner because your body can't cope.
That they were saying is why if you get ill then you must isolate even from your own household as much as possible, not share a towel etc - as even if its likely you might infect them either way you want to not overwhelm them with the infection before they start producing their own antibodies.
Yes, that's my understanding too.
Charles' comment is based on what is possible in theory: infection by a single cell. For the overwhelming majority of infectious diseases, including ones that an individual hasn't encountered before, a much greater number is required to have a non-negligible probability of developing.
Plus not just developing but how severely it develops. A high dose leads to higher risk that the illness advances to a more severe case.
Best of luck to Max, fingers x’d for Gideon (and happy B to PB)
The fact so many of us on here are already personally impacted shows how deeply this has penetrated.
Out in the real world most of my friends and family now know someone who is suspected or confirmed.
I know loads of people now with the virus...or with symptoms that are as good as....
And weirdly, I still don't know anybody with it, or even suspected... And I have friends all over the country. Although obviously most of my peer group are mid to late 20s.
I know quite a few people in the NHS....teachers...also it's gone through a firm of solicitors whom I know here in Oxford like a dose of salts...my wife's work has had people returning from international trips (Spain particularly)
Funnily enough only one of my Italian connections (an old boy in Pesaro) has been known to have it......and he's now at the crematorium waiting to be incinerated sadly...RIP...
I'm very sorry to hear that.
He died in 2 days....
Touch wood though no-one that I know in the UK has had terrible symptoms....Giedon on this site yesterday were the worst I've encountered from the people I know about....
Call after call after call on LBC from businesses who can't operate but have not been shut down and are not eligible for what Sunak has offered. Its going to collapse sole trading and SMEs unless they do something in their 3rd budget.
They will have to. There is no alternative. The government just has to bite the bullet on this one. I am sure Sunak knows this. It may be that others will not accept it. Forget the economics for a moment, these people are a key Tory-voting demographic. Leaving them hanging makes noi sense at any level.
If you are self employed you are an entrepreneur not a wage earner and set yourself up in the knowledge you would be on your own financially. The government has provided loans to businesses and offered to pay 80% of wages of wage earners and offered easier and quicker temporary access to Universal Credit and sick pay for the self employed but every grant it offers during the crisis ultimately leads to higher taxes post crisis for taxpayers
I see your point but we are dealing with something extraordinary here. If you are a S/E plumber, for instance, and you want to carry on working, and you have clients who have jobs for you to do, but are prevented by carrying on your trade due to government policy, then surely you have a case for compensation. In this example it is the government that is stopping your earnings, not the virus or lack of trading opportunities.
The government has not yet stopped plumbers from working and for the average plumber most of their clients are domestic households not businesses and as stated they can still apply for loans if necessary
I saw my plumber last week. He said he had plenty of work and was booked up for months. He recommended some precautionary work on the boiler and it didn't sound like I was going to get an appointment for a while. Thursday his assistant phones and suddenly there is lots of availability. So clearly such tradespeople are now getting lots of cancellations
Some but clearly they are still working as shown by the fact he is going to work on your boiler
I'm confused. Should we be social distancing or not? Should we be working from home to avoid people being in close contact or not? Should we be going to each other's houses or not?
Its unsafe for Nandos to offer a takeaway business and we should all Listen to the Prime Minister and his Clear Advice. But John the plumber absolutely should be doing his normal business going into house after house after house.
I suspect that HYUFD knows the contradictory nature of his utterances but is enough of a political sociopath not to care. Its just Other People after all, what do peons matter?
Stop being silly - even in the lock-down scenario - plumbers in Spain are legally allowed to visit homes to deal with emergencies - repairing toilets, boilers, pipes , etc. Of course it's not perfect but it's just common sense. You're either very stupid or deliberately dissembling. Your call.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
New cases and deaths % increase slowing down rapidly, the raw numbers are frightening but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
We're (well, I am, anyway) projecting forward and assuming that New York in a month's time will look like Italy right now, only much worse. And beyond that: the US is just not equipped to deal with this due to a combination of its healthcare system and federal vs state vs municipal control circles.
They also have a high percentage of people who think it's a hoax and will whine about their freedoms being impaired when lockdown commences, right up to the point when someone they know is affected, at which point they will spin on a dime and complain the government should have done more, sooner.
It's a totally toxic mix for Trump, and - coupled with the stock market crash - I don't see any way this doesn't get worse and worse for him.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
Currently working on setting up a Zoom account to enable some at least of our U3a Groups to continue. Discussion Groups, whether Book, or Current Affairs should be fine of course, but Walking's out and I fear Wine Appreciation is going to mean a rethink.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Re point 2 -- quarantining people coming from abroad. Just last week, the chatty shopper from Tenerife was not tested. If we are not bothered about one of the European hotspots, why isolate anyone at all?
Call after call after call on LBC from businesses who can't operate but have not been shut down and are not eligible for what Sunak has offered. Its going to collapse sole trading and SMEs unless they do something in their 3rd budget.
They will have to. There is no alternative. The government just has to bite the bullet on this one. I am sure Sunak knows this. It may be that others will not accept it. Forget the economics for a moment, these people are a key Tory-voting demographic. Leaving them hanging makes noi sense at any level.
If you are self employed you are an entrepreneur not a wage earner and set yourself up in the knowledge you would be on your own financially. The government has provided loans to businesses and offered to pay 80% of wages of wage earners and offered easier and quicker temporary access to Universal Credit and sick pay for the self employed but every grant it offers during the crisis ultimately leads to higher taxes post crisis for taxpayers
I see your point but we are dealing with something extraordinary here. If you are a S/E plumber, for instance, and you want to carry on working, and you have clients who have jobs for you to do, but are prevented by carrying on your trade due to government policy, then surely you have a case for compensation. In this example it is the government that is stopping your earnings, not the virus or lack of trading opportunities.
The government has not yet stopped plumbers from working and for the average plumber most of their clients are domestic households not businesses and as stated they can still apply for loans if necessary
I saw my plumber last week. He said he had plenty of work and was booked up for months. He recommended some precautionary work on the boiler and it didn't sound like I was going to get an appointment for a while. Thursday his assistant phones and suddenly there is lots of availability. So clearly such tradespeople are now getting lots of cancellations
Some but clearly they are still working as shown by the fact he is going to work on your boiler
I'm confused. Should we be social distancing or not? Should we be working from home to avoid people being in close contact or not? Should we be going to each other's houses or not?
Its unsafe for Nandos to offer a takeaway business and we should all Listen to the Prime Minister and his Clear Advice. But John the plumber absolutely should be doing his normal business going into house after house after house.
I suspect that HYUFD knows the contradictory nature of his utterances but is enough of a political sociopath not to care. Its just Other People after all, what do peons matter?
Stop being silly - even in the lock-down scenario - plumbers in Spain are legally allowed to visit homes to deal with emergencies - repairing toilets, boilers, pipes , etc. Of course it's not perfect but it's just common sense. You're either very stupid or deliberately dissembling. Your call.
In fact it would be stupid to not allow them to work as long as you don’t hug him because he’s your second cousin!
Best of luck to Max, fingers x’d for Gideon (and happy B to PB)
The fact so many of us on here are already personally impacted shows how deeply this has penetrated.
Out in the real world most of my friends and family now know someone who is suspected or confirmed.
I know loads of people now with the virus...or with symptoms that are as good as....
And weirdly, I still don't know anybody with it, or even suspected... And I have friends all over the country. Although obviously most of my peer group are mid to late 20s.
im aware of 7 people who've had/have it , or at least claim to have it.
One an NHS worker and one a GP in different parts of the country.
A cousin in london thinks he , his wife and teenage son have it although his son apparently had a cough and a fever for a day or so and then was ok....
And a friend in liverpool but i think he might be panicking (he's over it now anyway)
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
That's my view too.
I had Trump as toast if it were not for this crisis. Now, not so sure.
In other words I disagree with both bits of the sentiment - as expressed in the @david_herdson header last week - that he was going to win (IMO he wasn't) and is now less likely to because the economy has gone and he will preside over a public health disaster (IMO he's now more likely to win).
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
I still haven't decided whether I will go for a run today. If I do, and I encounter such groups again, I will simply turn around and go home. It may be a lot harder to get good quality exercise at home, but it clearly is possible.
I'm still running. 1st thing in the morning when there's almost no-one about.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
New cases and deaths % increase slowing down rapidly, the raw numbers are frightening but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Yes - about 13% for cases and 21% for deaths. It'll get worse overall but I think the curve is starting to ease.
Call after call after call on LBC from businesses who can't operate but have not been shut down and are not eligible for what Sunak has offered. Its going to collapse sole trading and SMEs unless they do something in their 3rd budget.
They will have to. There is no alternative. The government just has to bite the bullet on this one. I am sure Sunak knows this. It may be that others will not accept it. Forget the economics for a moment, these people are a key Tory-voting demographic. Leaving them hanging makes noi sense at any level.
If you are self employed you are an entrepreneur not a wage earner and set yourself up in the knowledge you would be on your own financially. The government has provided loans to businesses and offered to pay 80% of wages of wage earners and offered easier and quicker temporary access to Universal Credit and sick pay for the self employed but every grant it offers during the crisis ultimately leads to higher taxes post crisis for taxpayers
I see your point but we are dealing with something extraordinary here. If you are a S/E plumber, for instance, and you want to carry on working, and you have clients who have jobs for you to do, but are prevented by carrying on your trade due to government policy, then surely you have a case for compensation. In this example it is the government that is stopping your earnings, not the virus or lack of trading opportunities.
The government has not yet stopped plumbers from working and for the average plumber most of their clients are domestic households not businesses and as stated they can still apply for loans if necessary
I saw my plumber last week. He said he had plenty of work and was booked up for months. He recommended some precautionary work on the boiler and it didn't sound like I was going to get an appointment for a while. Thursday his assistant phones and suddenly there is lots of availability. So clearly such tradespeople are now getting lots of cancellations
Some but clearly they are still working as shown by the fact he is going to work on your boiler
I'm confused. Should we be social distancing or not? Should we be working from home to avoid people being in close contact or not? Should we be going to each other's houses or not?
Its unsafe for Nandos to offer a takeaway business and we should all Listen to the Prime Minister and his Clear Advice. But John the plumber absolutely should be doing his normal business going into house after house after house.
I suspect that HYUFD knows the contradictory nature of his utterances but is enough of a political sociopath not to care. Its just Other People after all, what do peons matter?
Stop being silly - even in the lock-down scenario - plumbers in Spain are legally allowed to visit homes to deal with emergencies - repairing toilets, boilers, pipes , etc. Of course it's not perfect but it's just common sense. You're either very stupid or deliberately dissembling. Your call.
Not all plumbing work is emergency work. Most isn't. That is the problem. The same applies to most services provided by most self-employed people.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
We're (well, I am, anyway) projecting forward and assuming that New York in a month's time will look like Italy right now, only much worse. And beyond that: the US is just not equipped to deal with this due to a combination of its healthcare system and federal vs state vs municipal control circles.
They also have a high percentage of people who think it's a hoax and will whine about their freedoms being impaired when lockdown commences, right up to the point when someone they know is affected, at which point they will spin on a dime and complain the government should have done more, sooner.
It's a totally toxic mix for Trump, and - coupled with the stock market crash - I don't see any way this doesn't get worse and worse for him.
Otoh it is mainly Dems in the cities who own shares and will get Covid-19. If I were Donald, I'd have the Fed restore American workers' 401-k's (I think that is what they call their pension plans) to pre-crisis levels; job done; reelection in the bag.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
Happy birthday PB from the most idiotic poster it’s ever had.
Culture
I posted not long ago it’s our liberal/capitalist culture not the science controlling the governments response, and making U.K. response weak and error prone. i was called the most idiotic Poster in PB history! You remember? Changed your mind yet?
The differences around the world is cultural. It’s not the Chinese Plague it’s the wrapped up in consumerism without a conscious awareness of what your lives and society’s have become plaque. Hence, bang, straight into those countries before they realised what’s hitting them. Hence the panic buying of toilet roles and riots outside supermarkets.
I used the observation of Jerome, on holiday in Germany and eyes open at the cultural differences. There are keep off the grass signs in the park and the Germans are observing em, in complete contrast to London where Jerome lives.
Culture.
You were supreme in your ignorance it was science guiding the government not culture, repeating it over and over brain washing yourselves.
You see now you were wrong, we are a very liberal country, a liberal PM not an authoritarian PM, finding it hard to do the authoritarian thing, thisis the very heart of our culture. And a nations culture has been driving response to this the whole world over, not the science.
I`m finding it hard from you post to divine the point you are making. The previous post that you referred to was IMO unfairly criticised. Are you now defending liberal democracy or attacking it?
Does your ultra capitalist consumerist society have any conscious awareness at all? Does your science?
In our lifetimes we have sat back as conscious awareness has been eroded in our lives and our society. Religious observances reduced to an isle in the supermarket. And the impact on our politics the good balance of our liberal democracy even worse.
And science has always been devoid of conscious awareness.
I think that there is some meat somewhere in your posts - from a philosophical perspective. Maybe someone else can weigh in?
‘ I`m finding it hard from you post to divine the point you are making.’
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
New cases and deaths % increase slowing down rapidly, the raw numbers are frightening but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
oh, absolutely!! Those are really key statistics - similar to Italy where there is a hint of light at the end of the tunnel as well.
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
That's my view too.
I had Trump as toast if it were not for this crisis. Now, not so sure.
In other words I disagree with both bits of the sentiment - as expressed in the @david_herdson header last week - that he was going to win (IMO he wasn't) and is now less likely to because the economy has gone and he will preside over a public health disaster (IMO he's now more likely to win).
I expected him to win because of the economy and the awful weakness of the Democrat field. However, his handling of the crisis thus far has been very bad and I'd expect him to probably lose.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Interesting. Do you think this is also the case in Italy / Spain etc. then?
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Squinting at the international figures, it looks as if containment can work, but you need to start it early. It is at least more effective if started early.
2 jurors down in the Salmond trial so down to 13. The 2 were discharged for "various reasons". I hope its not Covid 19 for the sake of the remainder. 12 is the legal minimum for a verdict. Hopefully that will come today.
Best of luck to Max, fingers x’d for Gideon (and happy B to PB)
The fact so many of us on here are already personally impacted shows how deeply this has penetrated.
Out in the real world most of my friends and family now know someone who is suspected or confirmed.
I know loads of people now with the virus...or with symptoms that are as good as....
And weirdly, I still don't know anybody with it, or even suspected... And I have friends all over the country. Although obviously most of my peer group are mid to late 20s.
I know quite a few people in the NHS....teachers...also it's gone through a firm of solicitors whom I know here in Oxford like a dose of salts...my wife's work has had people returning from international trips (Spain particularly)
Funnily enough only one of my Italian connections (an old boy in Pesaro) has been known to have it......and he's now at the crematorium waiting to be incinerated sadly...RIP...
I'm very sorry to hear that.
He died in 2 days....
Touch wood though no-one that I know in the UK has had terrible symptoms....Giedon on this site yesterday were the worst I've encountered from the people I know about....
Two elderly people I know have probably or certainly had it. A slight dry cough for him, lasting 2-3 days (81, London). 6 days in bed for her (77, Oxfordshire). A third friend (69, Oxfordshire) is in quarantine after having lunch in London with someone who later developed it. No symptoms yet.
A brainy friend has done some modelling and predicts that it'll burn out by the end of April because a) it's so infectious b) there are many without any symptoms; only the unlucky ones end up in bed or hospital. He found errors in government figures.
The hypothesis that there are already >>1M cases could be tested by YouGov scrapping one of its inane opinion polls asking 'Do you like the colour of the Prime Minister's tie?' and instead paying for a few 1,000 random blood tests, at 3-4 per constituency.
Guernsey Self Isolation - all arrivals since the 19th have to "Self Isolate" for 14 days - interviewed on arrival for 1 hour - given a pack with specific advice - wellness call check each day - if you don't answer the phone the police come round. They're also finding that even doing this for 14 days is tough.
Stop being silly - even in the lock-down scenario - plumbers in Spain are legally allowed to visit homes to deal with emergencies - repairing toilets, boilers, pipes , etc. Of course it's not perfect but it's just common sense. You're either very stupid or deliberately dissembling. Your call.
In fact it would be stupid to not allow them to work as long as you don’t hug him because he’s your second cousin!
I started off pointing out that people are out fitting kitchens and bathrooms. Not emergencies. Yes if your pipe has burst someone needs to fix it. Same if you have an abscess and need a dentist. But as has been pointed out upthread and previously routine stuff rightly is being scrubbed.
The advice is only things that are absolutely necessary - is getting a new kitchen fitted absolutely vital right now? My Spanish father-in-law has put his building contractor business on ice because none of his home improvement works are critically necessary - he completed a roofing job as it wasn't secure, but amazingly enough isn't interested in kitchen or swimming pool works right now...
Call after call after call on LBC from businesses who can't operate but have not been shut down and are not eligible for what Sunak has offered. Its going to collapse sole trading and SMEs unless they do something in their 3rd budget.
I see your point but we are dealing with something extraordinary here. If you are a S/E plumber, for instance, and you want to carry on working, and you have clients who have jobs for you to do, but are prevented by carrying on your trade due to government policy, then surely you have a case for compensation. In this example it is the government that is stopping your earnings, not the virus or lack of trading opportunities.
The government has not yet stopped plumbers from working and for the average plumber most of their clients are domestic households not businesses and as stated they can still apply for loans if necessary
I saw my plumber last week. He said he had plenty of work and was booked up for months. He recommended some precautionary work on the boiler and it didn't sound like I was going to get an appointment for a while. Thursday his assistant phones and suddenly there is lots of availability. So clearly such tradespeople are now getting lots of cancellations
Some but clearly they are still working as shown by the fact he is going to work on your boiler
I'm confused. Should we be social distancing or not? Should we be working from home to avoid people being in close contact or not? Should we be going to each other's houses or not?
Its unsafe for Nandos to offer a takeaway business and we should all Listen to the Prime Minister and his Clear Advice. But John the plumber absolutely should be doing his normal business going into house after house after house.
I suspect that HYUFD knows the contradictory nature of his utterances but is enough of a political sociopath not to care. Its just Other People after all, what do peons matter?
Stop being silly - even in the lock-down scenario - plumbers in Spain are legally allowed to visit homes to deal with emergencies - repairing toilets, boilers, pipes , etc. Of course it's not perfect but it's just common sense. You're either very stupid or deliberately dissembling. Your call.
Not all plumbing work is emergency work. Most isn't. That is the problem. The same applies to most services provided by most self-employed people.
Oh indeed - but quite a lot of it is. What is stupid is to pretend that Nandos and plumbing have some kind of equivalence. I support more help for self-employed people and I'm sure they will get it. But people demanding absolutes all the time when the situation we're in can offer few certainties are being stupid or worse.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
No - we've had the same pattern for the last 3 days I believe.
Not volunteering but a thread on this would be good - it's a classic case where there's a strong consensus on what we think is happening - Trump is bollocksing everything up and destroying what's left of his presidency - that's seriously at odds with the available data.
We're (well, I am, anyway) projecting forward and assuming that New York in a month's time will look like Italy right now, only much worse. And beyond that: the US is just not equipped to deal with this due to a combination of its healthcare system and federal vs state vs municipal control circles.
They also have a high percentage of people who think it's a hoax and will whine about their freedoms being impaired when lockdown commences, right up to the point when someone they know is affected, at which point they will spin on a dime and complain the government should have done more, sooner.
It's a totally toxic mix for Trump, and - coupled with the stock market crash - I don't see any way this doesn't get worse and worse for him.
Otoh it is mainly Dems in the cities who own shares and will get Covid-19. If I were Donald, I'd have the Fed restore American workers' 401-k's (I think that is what they call their pension plans) to pre-crisis levels; job done; reelection in the bag.
Yes, this is true. I have no sense yet as to what extent this is going to impact the Rust Belt within the next few months: it's certainly the case that swing voters there won't care much if California and New York are in total chaos, as long as they still have jobs.
Just listening to Varadkar, he seems to be on the same page as Boris re lockdown saying he will ignore twitter and critics and listen only to the advice of his medical advisors and experts. Exactly the position I take on this crisis
And separately
My ears pricked up when I heard a vaccine has been discovered
And the comment was the 2 metre spacing of peoples is their only vaccine for upto 18 months
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
No - we've had the same pattern for the last 3 days I believe.
Well, that is encouraging. It could just be that Spain avoids a situation as devastating as the Italian one if this continues.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
5th day on the trot down from 25% to 11% but it’s only a line on a graph till the load starts to reduce on hospitals
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
Ooh you’re hard!
You better believe it.
Haha quality! You must have watched it more than me, it’s perfect.
Stop being silly - even in the lock-down scenario - plumbers in Spain are legally allowed to visit homes to deal with emergencies - repairing toilets, boilers, pipes , etc. Of course it's not perfect but it's just common sense. You're either very stupid or deliberately dissembling. Your call.
In fact it would be stupid to not allow them to work as long as you don’t hug him because he’s your second cousin!
I started off pointing out that people are out fitting kitchens and bathrooms. Not emergencies. Yes if your pipe has burst someone needs to fix it. Same if you have an abscess and need a dentist. But as has been pointed out upthread and previously routine stuff rightly is being scrubbed.
The advice is only things that are absolutely necessary - is getting a new kitchen fitted absolutely vital right now? My Spanish father-in-law has put his building contractor business on ice because none of his home improvement works are critically necessary - he completed a roofing job as it wasn't secure, but amazingly enough isn't interested in kitchen or swimming pool works right now...
Actually swimming pool maintenance is continuing for obvious health reasons. Even if not in use they cannot be allowed to fester. On kitchens it depends - a fair bit of such work could be in progress and need to be finished for families to have a functioning kitchen, etc. I agree with regard to things not started that are non-essential.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Squinting at the international figures, it looks as if containment can work, but you need to start it early. It is at least more effective if started early.
I think we are at 4 actually but temporarily. The epidemic will not stop but the number of new cases may start to reduce. Then either 3 will follow or a vaccine will be found. The containment measures are slowing the growth rate in some European countries but they have had to shut down all their non-essential economic activities, sport, social gatherings and education. This adds up to a substantial fraction of the economy. If this situation persists for a long time living standards must fall substantially as well as people's quality of life due to the isolation required.
I foresee that the UK government would in time have to reduce payments to support people's wages. This could lead to social unrest eventually as some people may feel that they have run out of options and have nothing to lose.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
The media has always been partisan, 'The Independent' tried for a while...
I agree. As far back as the Thatcher era at least - which is the furthest back I can remember when it comes to an interest in politics and the media. I don't think any specific political event has accentuated this. Rather I would say that the growth of social media, for all that I am a big fan and think it is overall beneficial to humanity, has had a negative impact on journalism and politics.
2 jurors down in the Salmond trial so down to 13. The 2 were discharged for "various reasons". I hope its not Covid 19 for the sake of the remainder. 12 is the legal minimum for a verdict. Hopefully that will come today.
The trial of those accused of the murder of PC Harper has collapsed. Three jurors in self-isolation. Review for new dat on June 1st; defendants remanded in custody.
I expected him to win because of the economy and the awful weakness of the Democrat field. However, his handling of the crisis thus far has been very bad and I'd expect him to probably lose.
Many feel that and I get the rationale. But as I say, I think the opposite. Well, not totally, because I still think he will lose. But before this crisis I was almost sure he would. Now I'm worried. Reason? Because when you go through something very intense and difficult with someone you sometimes end up feeling closer to them. Not always, but it often does work that way. And I can see this happening with Trump and the American people. Hope I'm wrong. No, more than that, I hope and PRAY I'm wrong, despite not being religious. Short of beating coronavirus there is for me nothing of more benefit to this world that could happen in 2020 than Donald Trump losing the US presidential election.
Yep - a national crisis is good for national leaders. The polling for all those in charge everywhere is on the rise. Trump is going to be very hard to beat in November.
That's my view too.
I had Trump as toast if it were not for this crisis. Now, not so sure.
In other words I disagree with both bits of the sentiment - as expressed in the @david_herdson header last week - that he was going to win (IMO he wasn't) and is now less likely to because the economy has gone and he will preside over a public health disaster (IMO he's now more likely to win).
I expected him to win because of the economy and the awful weakness of the Democrat field. However, his handling of the crisis thus far has been very bad and I'd expect him to probably lose.
Anyone paying enough attention to reality to notice how shit he has been at handling the coronavirus crisis was never going to vote for him anyway. A crisis in general is probably good for Trump - look at how 9/11 (which Bush handled terribly) and the disastrous Iraq war improved Bush Jnr's ratings. In fact 2004 remains the only time the Republican presidential candidate got more votes than the Dem since 1988. But if (as is likely) the economy goes down and swing voters blame Trump (possible), he will probably lose.
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
Ooh you’re hard!
You better believe it.
Haha quality! You must have watched it more than me, it’s perfect.
In any other time but these everyone would be begging you 2 to get a room!
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
No - we've had the same pattern for the last 3 days I believe.
Well, that is encouraging. It could just be that Spain avoids a situation as devastating as the Italian one if this continues.
I’m afraid it may be too late for Madrid which is what London should be using as its benchmark to avoid.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
Christ alive, no wonder he looks knackered. Lets also hope Mr G-Tech is correct with his 1000 a week claim for his design.
Cue the presser question - why have we not got more?
The press behaviour is deplorable. Mr Yorkshire Tea announces 80% pay, not enough. More than double the ventilators in a week, with the likes of G-Tech ready to make 1000s more and do an amazing deal with the whole of the private health sector for beds, staff and kit, why don't we have more.
Cuomo gave the US press both barrels yesterday when they tried this bullshit.
Maybe it is because we live in an era of less reverent press behaviour towards government and we’ve not really seen a crisis of this kind in this age, but I do find the role of the press in all this highly irresponsible and possibly dangerous. I am all for speaking truth to power, but the need to find an angle, any angle, to stoke more fear, create more confusion or just needle away in the background is really not helping IMHO.
I can't help feeling a lot of it (at least in this country) comes from the B word. Trump has arguably had a similar effect in the US.
Any concept of impartiality or reporting without spin just died a death during that sorry episode. Partisan rubbish on both sides got retweeted and discussed on both sides as "evidence" that the readers bias was correct, obvious and morally sound. Those who made any attempt at neutrality were ignored by both sides. Editors learned from this. A media infected with the virus of partisanship takes a long time to recover.
We are where we are. The government - and the people within it - have been very happy to play this game. We are not going back. I agree that it is incredibly damaging, as we are now seeing very clearly. If you tell people that experts are nothing more than agenda-driven, partisan shills, if you sneer at Elf n'Safety, then you end up with a lot of people ignoring what experts say and thinking that preventive measures are Elf n'Safety gone mad.
So when we had a labour government, that many people thought were too much of a nanny state, the people who are ignoring govt advice now would have taken it?
I don’t think so to be honest, but it’s an angle to get at Boris whilst looking concerned. There’s nothing else to do I suppose
Yeah, that must be it. There can be no other possible explanation.
Who knows? Keep it up anyway, I’ve seen The Office a hundred times and they’re not doing a new series.
It is true that I will never see the world in the way that you do. Fancy watching the Office 100 times. What a little life.
Ooh you’re hard!
You better believe it.
Haha quality! You must have watched it more than me, it’s perfect.
A little life can still be a well-lived one, so never give up - as someone once said.
I wonder how many more weeks it's going to take before people notice the reporting pattern slows down at weekends and then speeds up again once the next week starts?
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Interesting. Do you think this is also the case in Italy / Spain etc. then?
So many staff and friends are coming down with it, mostly mild symptoms still, that it appears to be very infectious. Very few have been formally tested, so I think the number of cases is probably 10 times the recorded. Each one infectious. Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose. Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Boris said 12 weeks and I am pretty sure that he did not make that number up himself. Not sure if this was before or after the latest Neil Fergusson analysis which seems a bit gloomier all round.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
The media has always been partisan, 'The Independent' tried for a while...
I agree. As far back as the Thatcher era at least - which is the furthest back I can remember when it comes to an interest in politics and the media. I don't think any specific political event has accentuated this. Rather I would say that the growth of social media, for all that I am a big fan and think it is overall beneficial to humanity, has had a negative impact on journalism and politics.
The clue as always is the word "media". As in "mediated". By humans. Most people are partisan - may not be explicitly supporting one party or other but they do have views and opinions which will park them somewhere on the political spectrum. I have no problem at all with the "biased" media especially when the people complaining loudest about bias are themselves the most biased.
We may dislike some media outlets, but its hard to deny the success of organs like the Daily Mail who understand in detail the mindset of their readership and skillfully craft their coverage to generate the more revenue-generating response from them.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It’s a slow down in the growth rate ie it’s no longer exponential (I think) not a reduction in raw numbers.
Wonder where they got all these ventilators from, as the whole world is trying to buy them and the big international players that make them, their increase in output is tiny compared to the demand.
Local manufacturers.
They interviewed the biggest UK manufacturer the other day and they weren't talking about being able to make 1000s etc in a week, just a few 100.
Amazing how many people seem to think that "manufacturers" are an enormously homogeneous group who all use basically the same type of kit to just make anything.
Just because you make cars or washing machines doesn't mean you can just immediately make respirators!
"Noel Gallagher, you can write rock songs, but please can you write 100 operas a week starting tomorrow? And by the way they have to be every bit as good as Puccini and Bizet"
Errr..no
What they are asking them to use is the design facilities - generate the CAD and other files, and then use their custom/prototyping capability (CNC/3D printing etc) to build stuff. Very often major manufacturers have connections to sub-contractors who simply have an array of CNC mills or printers.
Its asking Noel Gallagher to write a good-enough song overnight, and then getting the CDs made by distributing the work to bunch of contractors who burn them on blanks, rather than stamping them on a production line.
Happy Birthday, PB! I first started posting in 2015, but was a lurker for a long time before that, and I have to say that even though this place can get a bit heated, it's admirably free of the virulent (!) idiocy that permeates most social media, especially now. No better place on the internet to become informed about important political matters, not to mention tangential issues great and small. Ad multos annos!
Happy birthday PB from the most idiotic poster it’s ever had.
Culture
I posted not long ago it’s our liberal/capitalist culture not the science controlling the governments response, and making U.K. response weak and error prone. i was called the most idiotic Poster in PB history! You remember? Changed your mind yet?
The differences around the world is cultural. It’s not the Chinese Plague it’s the wrapped up in consumerism without a conscious awareness of what your lives and society’s have become plaque. Hence, bang, straight into those countries before they realised what’s hitting them. Hence the panic buying of toilet roles and riots outside supermarkets.
I used the observation of Jerome, on holiday in Germany and eyes open at the cultural differences. There are keep off the grass signs in the park and the Germans are observing em, in complete contrast to London where Jerome lives.
Culture.
You were supreme in your ignorance it was science guiding the government not culture, repeating it over and over brain washing yourselves.
You see now you were wrong, we are a very liberal country, a liberal PM not an authoritarian PM, finding it hard to do the authoritarian thing, thisis the very heart of our culture. And a nations culture has been driving response to this the whole world over, not the science.
I`m finding it hard from you post to divine the point you are making. The previous post that you referred to was IMO unfairly criticised. Are you now defending liberal democracy or attacking it?
Does your ultra capitalist consumerist society have any conscious awareness at all? Does your science?
In our lifetimes we have sat back as conscious awareness has been eroded in our lives and our society. Religious observances reduced to an isle in the supermarket. And the impact on our politics the good balance of our liberal democracy even worse.
And science has always been devoid of conscious awareness.
Sorry I only just realised you are a religious fanatic. It is not religion that will save us here it is science. Please take your superstitious mumbo jumbo elsewhere.
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It is a slowing of the rate of growth.
That is not a slow down! It is still an increase. Can you please point me to your sources?
Is there a betting market on how long this outbreak lasts in Great Britain? I see four scenarios.
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
I hope for 2 but I fear it might be number 4.
To be honest, I think we are at 3 already.
Interesting. Do you think this is also the case in Italy / Spain etc. then?
So many staff and friends are coming down with it, mostly mild symptoms still, that it appears to be very infectious. Very few have been formally tested, so I think the number of cases is probably 10 times the recorded. Each one infectious. Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose. Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
Agreed re the antibody. Mildly encouraging from the perspective of the number of mild cases though - suggests this really might be bad only for a relatively small subset of those infected (albeit still too many, without action, to completely overwhelm any health system).
Sadly it is to be expected that cases will rise in Spain for the next few days before the lockdown really takes effect... but they are taking the lockdown seriously so it should have an effect at least
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Can you point me to where you are seeing a slowdown in Spanish cases or deaths?
It is a slowing of the rate of growth.
That is not a slow down! It is still an increase. Can you please point me to your sources?
Comments
Add Fuller's to the nice company list.
Why are we not surprised?
Nandos - nothing that Nandos does is *vital*
Plumbing - Water leaks, Gas leaks.
I don't *think* I believe the conspiracy theories about Japan deliberately holding back covid19 testing in the hope of keeping the Olympics going but it would be really nice not to have to worry about it.
If anyone has any contacts with anyone in British olympic teams or the related organizations it would be really helpful if a few more people could stick their nails in the coffin...
BBC Radio 4 got UK athletics bigwigs on this morning, all of whom agreed it should be postponed. No word from Seb Coe yet, though.
During a national crisis people get patriotic.....history is full of leaders managing to deflect their own weaknesses onto something else....
FWIW...I think those ratings are still quite terrible for Trump...a less divisive leader , an Obama, Bush, Clinton...would be getting ratings in the 80/90's
The reports have made me question whether I should do that because, even though I am sticking to the guidelines, I am perhaps contributing to the feeling amongst such groups that what they are doing is okay.
I still haven't decided whether I will go for a run today. If I do, and I encounter such groups again, I will simply turn around and go home. It may be a lot harder to get good quality exercise at home, but it clearly is possible.
In our lifetimes we have sat back as conscious awareness has been eroded in our lives and our society. Religious observances reduced to an isle in the supermarket. And the impact on our politics the good balance of our liberal democracy even worse.
And science has always been devoid of conscious awareness.
Addendum: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/52002474
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/23/national/shinzo-abe-japan-postponing-tokyo-olympics-is-an-option/
The Japanese government reminds me a bit of Theresa May in its speed of response.
Funnily enough only one of my Italian connections (an old boy in Pesaro) has been known to have it......and he's now at the crematorium waiting to be incinerated sadly...RIP...
Just because you make cars or washing machines doesn't mean you can just immediately make respirators!
"Noel Gallagher, you can write rock songs, but please can you write 100 operas a week starting tomorrow? And by the way they have to be every bit as good as Puccini and Bizet"
Errr..no
1) An effective and safe vaccine is introduced next year, or in 2022. Once everyone has received the vaccine the outbreak ends and the economy is restarted.
2) Government containment and social distancing measures reduce the outbreak progressively to zero. All people arriving from outside Great Britain are quarantined, unless the outbreak has ended globally. The economy is restarted but could be slow to return to normal.
3) Containment measures fail and the virus quickly spreads out of control, so that the epidemic finishes this year. The economy can be restarted.
4) Containment measures partially succeed so that cases of the virus continue at a bounded and lowish level and most of the population remain suspectible to the virus. The economy cannot be restarted without increasing the number of virus cases. However over a long period of time, years to decades, herd immunity builds up and the economy can be fully restarted.
The government scientists don't seem to be saying how long it will last.
Nothing has changed significantly
Touch wood though no-one that I know in the UK has had terrible symptoms....Giedon on this site yesterday were the worst I've encountered from the people I know about....
They also have a high percentage of people who think it's a hoax and will whine about their freedoms being impaired when lockdown commences, right up to the point when someone they know is affected, at which point they will spin on a dime and complain the government should have done more, sooner.
It's a totally toxic mix for Trump, and - coupled with the stock market crash - I don't see any way this doesn't get worse and worse for him.
Discussion Groups, whether Book, or Current Affairs should be fine of course, but Walking's out and I fear Wine Appreciation is going to mean a rethink.
One an NHS worker and one a GP in different parts of the country.
A cousin in london thinks he , his wife and teenage son have it although his son apparently had a cough and a fever for a day or so and then was ok....
And a friend in liverpool but i think he might be panicking (he's over it now anyway)
I had Trump as toast if it were not for this crisis. Now, not so sure.
In other words I disagree with both bits of the sentiment - as expressed in the @david_herdson header last week - that he was going to win (IMO he wasn't) and is now less likely to because the economy has gone and he will preside over a public health disaster (IMO he's now more likely to win).
Yes - about 13% for cases and 21% for deaths. It'll get worse overall but I think the curve is starting to ease.
https://images.gamewatcherstatic.com/image/file/7/74/104087/Crusader-Kings-3-0.jpg
oh, absolutely!! Those are really key statistics - similar to Italy where there is a hint of light at the end of the tunnel as well.
As horrible as those numbers are, they look like a slowdown to me. But it's just one day, so we will need to see more.
Today’s stats
A brainy friend has done some modelling and predicts that it'll burn out by the end of April because a) it's so infectious b) there are many without any symptoms; only the unlucky ones end up in bed or hospital. He found errors in government figures.
The hypothesis that there are already >>1M cases could be tested by YouGov scrapping one of its inane opinion polls asking 'Do you like the colour of the Prime Minister's tie?' and instead paying for a few 1,000 random blood tests, at 3-4 per constituency.
The advice is only things that are absolutely necessary - is getting a new kitchen fitted absolutely vital right now? My Spanish father-in-law has put his building contractor business on ice because none of his home improvement works are critically necessary - he completed a roofing job as it wasn't secure, but amazingly enough isn't interested in kitchen or swimming pool works right now...
No - we've had the same pattern for the last 3 days I believe.
And separately
My ears pricked up when I heard a vaccine has been discovered
And the comment was the 2 metre spacing of peoples is their only vaccine for upto 18 months
Well, that is encouraging. It could just be that Spain avoids a situation as devastating as the Italian one if this continues.
5th day on the trot down from 25% to 11% but it’s only a line on a graph till the load starts to reduce on hospitals
I foresee that the UK government would in time have to reduce payments to support people's wages. This could lead to social unrest eventually as some people may feel that they have run out of options and have nothing to lose.
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1242042856300318721?s=21
But if (as is likely) the economy goes down and swing voters blame Trump (possible), he will probably lose.
I’m afraid it may be too late for Madrid which is what London should be using as its benchmark to avoid.
Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose.
Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
Some think it will be over in 3 months or so but I cannot see it before the Autumn and even then it could come back again
I have little doubt serious economic damage will be upon us worldwide
We may dislike some media outlets, but its hard to deny the success of organs like the Daily Mail who understand in detail the mindset of their readership and skillfully craft their coverage to generate the more revenue-generating response from them.
Its asking Noel Gallagher to write a good-enough song overnight, and then getting the CDs made by distributing the work to bunch of contractors who burn them on blanks, rather than stamping them on a production line.
Can you please point me to your sources?
Interestingly, several households with one clinically classic male case, and the women completely fine . Could just be coincidence, I suppose.
Until we have a blood test for antibodies we are completely in the dark.
Agreed re the antibody. Mildly encouraging from the perspective of the number of mild cases though - suggests this really might be bad only for a relatively small subset of those infected (albeit still too many, without action, to completely overwhelm any health system).