politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chanc
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?
This market from Ladbrokes about who will succeed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor is an intriguing market.
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The boredom of quarantine
https://twitter.com/asfarasdelgados/status/1241505838508003328?s=21
Did you know that if you rest one of your testicles on top of an empty beer bottle, and hold a flame at the base, eventually it gets sucked inside......If you've done this and know how to get it out, message me please...
Urgently!!
A few seconds when my brain manages to consider the possibility of Harris becoming POTUS is actually giving me a break.
Call it betting mindfulness.
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1241509523778670595?s=21
I am splitting the contest into two awards:
Boomer Remover Dead Pool Champion - first nominated sleb to cark it of confirmed Covid-19 infection or conditions caused thereby.
Marco Bielsa Award for Sporting Excellence - first sleb to die who wasn't just a really old person found on Wikipedia.
In all cases the adjudicator's decision is final and not accessible to appeal.
Extract from my brief to Council colleagues in other Authorities this evening...
One thing is for sure. Leaving this to Facebook is no solution. Social media focuses on those who shout the loudest. We need to support those with the quietest voices most of whom might never have heard of social media. That what the State is for.
It will be our task to knit the calls for help with those who are able to serve. But how?
This is what I have discussed with a fellow Council Leader when thinking how to do solve this problem practically and to get our Councils organised, so we don’t let our residents down.
We need to break the task into manageable chunks. We made some working assumptions together.
Of the 1.5m people to be super-served on the NHS list, let’s say 900,000 are in England. There are over 300 authorities here so let’s say 3,000 vulnerable people per authority. How will we serve these people over-and-above everyone else?
Let’s say a typical district has 25 wards. That’s 120 people per ward on the critical list. And, let’s say that there might be 3 times as many other families self-isolating or otherwise generally in need.
We can allocate 25 senior managers, one to each ward, perhaps supported by a Constable. We can divi-out out a share of the national volunteer base into 25 chunks.
So, that’s 25 ward with 120 people to be super-served + 360 others that’s 480 people to be served in total. Per ward. That is not an insurmountable task. It becomes manageable. And deliverable.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Why don't people want venison?
And this is a place with more than 10 million people - 25% larger than NYC.
So, while I have no doubt that it will be hit relatively hard, it will probably grow less quickly here simply because there are so many fewer contact points.
I hope the government has recruited the very best behavioural experts in order to deal with these sorts of potential problems.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/21/national-trust-close-parks-gardens-stop-spread-coronavirus-12436732
Article 107(2)(b) of the TFEU would seem to cover it:
"2. The following shall be compatible with the internal market:
(b) aid to make good the damage caused by natural disasters or exceptional occurrences;"
We shall see. But most likely file under Brexiteer arsewit propaganda.
That's a big file.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Reeves is far too intelligent and centre-left to be Labour shadow chancellor, I'm not sure that Starmer will have enough credit in the bank with maomentum to appoint someone that could propose a credible platform.
I think that (for the moment) the Overton window is relatively static (although both big parties at the GE were promising big state spending), because there's an understanding that this debt fuelled spending is unsustainable, this is not the new normal.
I mix with an extremely young & left wing circle (which is why when they swung against Lab I twigged that Corbyn was screwed & profited handsomely), and while I could see a greater role of the state in the economy, the Govt's ineptitude at running non-essential services will ensure that the Overton window remains somewhat static.
In an economic sense the Overton window is an equilibrium, and a one off shock (like this pandemic) is not enough to cause long term shifts.
But since that seems to have been Shadsy's train of thought too, these are the first three in the betting with a combined price of even money or 50 per cent (well, 51 per cent but let's hope for an odds boost to keep the arithmetic simple).
Before you look at candidates for the shadow CofE should you consider which of the labour MPs who are thought of as 'big beasts' will Starmer want to include in his shadow cabinet?
Will they demand one of the three big gigs? Will C of E be available for new talent?
I needed to do some food shopping yesterday (for bread, milk etc.). Decided to walk and avoid all the coughing fits on public transport. Very few people on street (like Christmas Day) and lots of weird social distancing - people crossing street to avoid close contact.
Elephant and Castle shopping centre was almost empty except for Iceland, where there was a queue to get in! Co-op opposite very quiet, some empty shelves but I got most of what I went for.
Finished Lancaster and York, by Alison Weir, yesterday. Good book for anyone wanting a single volume to cover the Wars of the Roses.
He has to be locked up indefinitely. Otherwise we will never get the fucker out of the Oval Office.
And that was about it.
German police arrest man over high-speed rail tampering
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51992070
Quite right.
Broadway Market was still operating, albeit probably at reduced capacity.
I literally heard one girl mention to her boyfriend that they needed truffle oil.
The social distancing thing has not reached Hackney yet.
While the supermarkets ramp up supplies and people's cupboards fill, the shelves will remain sparsely filled. But when the two curves meet, the shelves will quite suddenly appear full again, as if by magic.
The fear must be what catastrophe awaits the US. New York State would already, on its own, drop into eighth place against countries on number of cases, and NYC itself will in a day or two have twice as many confirmed cases as the whole of the UK, and the US is still on catch up in terms of testing. Were it a country, NYC alone would drop into ninth.
Yet the airspace above the US is awash with internal flights.
Hoping this goes away soon.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Mr. Algakirk, probably not going to read any new histories for a little while shelf space etc, plus a to-read pile) but it was interesting reading about most of the 15th century.
Mr. Doethur, I did find it interesting that it ended there rather than in 1485 at the Battle of Bosworth Field (which I remember learning about in the first episode of Blackadder).
In the early days (and still) we were constantly told about the need to “flatten the curve”. But that was in the context of peak new and/or “active” cases (with the knock on effect on hospitals). Probably on a straight line scale. Hence cases rising to a peak and returning back to a low level (before potentially spiking again). Having drilled that into people we are now seeing all sorts of graphs with flattening (or otherwise) curves - but these are usually total cases (and complicated by whether they are log scales or not). And then the mistake is made of using the latter to assess progress towards the former objective. All very confusing.
What is further difficult to comprehend is how the gap gets filled between where we/other countries are now, and where the experts hope to see us in future. So in the U.K. we are currently at c230 deaths and 50 new per day. But the chief scientific officer talks about 20k deaths as potentially being a reasonably optimistic outcome (i’m not sure if that is this summer, this year, or in total). Which begs the question of quite how much worse the deaths figures are likely to get in coming weeks and months. Are we talking about daily levels of Spain and Italy now, or much worse than that? Do we have a graph of the distribution of the 20,000 in circulation? Etc etc.
Apologies for lengthy post, but I think it just shows how difficult simplistic graphical representations of the science are, and how difficult it is to imagine what is, or might be, to come.
Phase 1 - an attempt to remove power from Henry VI and the Dukes of Somerset, and place it in the hands of a council led by the principal heirs of the King, particularly York.
Phase 2 - when this had failed, an attempt, ultimately partially successful, to remove Henry VI from the throne and replace him with York.
Phase 3 - the removal of Edward IV, who had made several silly errors and alienated the Neville family (Warwick, Montagu and Bedford) and restore Henry VI.
Phase 4 - the removal and ultimately murder of Henry VI and the re-establishment of Edward IV.
This is what Weir covers. Ultimately, this was caused by the weakness and incompetence of Henry VI. That is what caused York, and later Edward, to seek power for themselves. Once Henry VI and his son were dead, the issue was effectively settled, so arguably, the wars finished.
However, there was a coda:
Phase 5 - with the premature death of Edward IV, his two sons were kidnapped and their uncle usurped the throne. This destabilised the whole realm and caused a search for an alternative King. Ultimately, Richard III’s enemies settled on the Earl of Richmond, who had the crucial backing of the Stanleys (and possibly Northumberland) and was in a position to marry Edward IV’s eldest daughter. This is ultimately why he won at Bosworth and became Henry VII.
Phase 6 - an invasion from Ireland led by a carpenter from Oxford called Lambert Simnel, which was really an attempt by disaffected followers of Richard (Notably Francis Lovell and John, Earl of Lincoln) to retake power. It was defeated at the Battle of Stoke.
Phase 7 - a conspiracy centred around a Flemish boy called Perkin Warbeck and backed by Margaret of Burgundy (Richard III’s sister) which succeeded in causing rioting in Cornwall but was ended by Warbeck’s capture in 1497 and execution in 1499.
Ultimately however phases 5-7 were not a dynastic struggle. Rather they were a power struggle within the Yorkists themselves, caused by the idiocy of Richard III. So it is arguably whether they were actually part of the Wars of the Roses, even though the Tudors had an interest in making them so (because Henry VII as Henry VI’s nephew and John of Gaunt’s great great grandson was anxious to emphasise his royal connections).
So that is why Tewkesbury marks the end of ‘Lancaster v York’ in Alison Weir’s estimation.
It’s a good job I didn’t go into too much detail...