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System · March 2020

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dramatic front pages as life for many is put on hold

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edmundintokyo · March 2020

Hate to go right off topic with trivialities while everything is on fire but as the site's most long-standing KLOBUCHAR stan I bring you INSIDER RUMOURS

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1239611995587899393

edmundintokyo · March 2020

"Life put on hold".

I really hate this stupid framing.

Beyond offices and pubs, there is life.

Mysticrose · March 2020

Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.

That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.

tlg86 · March 2020

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.

I cannot think of any politician that would have had the guts to shut our borders back in January.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

tlg86 said:

I cannot think of any politician that would have had the guts to shut our borders back in January.

That might have worked if they'd done it but it's far from the only possible policy option.

GideonWise · March 2020

I think the modelling teams might not have been able to see the wood for the trees. Suddenly the wood appeared and we change strategy with the result being thousands of deaths are now a certainty rather than the 260,000 if we had continued.

There isn't enough stuff, masks, ventilators, swabs in the world. Ventilators are the new spitfires, masks are machine guns. Clear out the factories, this is total war.

Casino_Royale · March 2020

edmundintokyo said:
"Life put on hold".

I really hate this stupid framing.

Beyond offices and pubs, there is life.

You've lived in Japan too long.

Mysticrose · March 2020

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.

This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.

tlg86 · March 2020

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.

Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?

Mysticrose · March 2020

In my opinion Edmund has made the Post of the Year below. Nails it.

Mysticrose · March 2020

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?

We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.

tlg86 · March 2020

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.

Don't worry, as Alastair Meeks wrote yesterday, the world has changed for good irrespective of what politicians do.

And on businesses, the printing presses are being fired up today (will be interesting to see if Macron can get the ECB to do the same).

GideonWise · March 2020

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.

It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.

tlg86 · March 2020

@GideonWise - that's a good analogy. I suppose it's a stretch, but perhaps the decision not to shutdown international travel in January is akin to what happened in 1919.

Mysticrose · March 2020

Good points Gideon.

eek · March 2020

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.

I suspect insurance companies don’t have the funds to keep businesses going. It is one thing to pay out to 1-5% of all insured businesses rather more difficult to pay out to 100% of them

Pulpstar · March 2020

Good to see the Daily Mirror with a non critical headline. I think the penny has dropped that... essentially the world is at war right now.

Mysticrose · March 2020

Gideon et. al., I was out with a friend last night: dinner at a restaurant (I know, I know) and we were discussing the Blitz spirit. She said the same thing as you, that where this differs is that in the Blitz it produced social bonding: people pulling together and working together. This virus may do that in alternative ways but social isolation is the opposite tendency.

By the way, the restaurant was all set up for a party of 12 who cancelled at the last minute. There was us and a couple.

I'm hunkering down soon but last night was a required meeting.

tlg86 · March 2020

eek said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
I suspect insurance companies don’t have the funds to keep businesses going. It is one thing to pay out to 1-5% of all insured businesses rather more difficult to pay out to 100% of them

Yes, the idea of insurance is that we spread the risk between ourselves. Unfortunately, that model fails when everyone's house burns down.

DecrepiterJohnL · March 2020

tlg86 said:
@GideonWise - that's a good analogy. I suppose it's a stretch, but perhaps the decision not to shutdown international travel in January is akin to what happened in 1919.

1918 surely when the decision was made both sides of the Atlantic but particularly in America that the needs of the war were paramount so new recruits, including infected ones, continued to be packed into troop ships for the three week voyage to trenches.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

tlg86 said:

Yes, the idea of insurance is that we spread the risk between ourselves. Unfortunately, that model fails when everyone's house burns down.

I don't think this one is complicated.

- Insurance companies pay businesses
- Money printer go brrrrr
- Government pays insurance companies

kingbongo · March 2020

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.

the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.

tlg86 · March 2020

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:
@GideonWise - that's a good analogy. I suppose it's a stretch, but perhaps the decision not to shutdown international travel in January is akin to what happened in 1919.
1918 surely when the decision was made both sides of the Atlantic but particularly in America that the needs of the war were paramount so new recruits, including infected ones, continued to be packed into troop ships for the three week voyage to trenches.

I was thinking more about sowing the seeds of WW2 in the aftermath of WW1 - although, I appreciate that that is a contested point.

GideonWise · March 2020

DecrepiterJohnL said:

tlg86 said:
@GideonWise - that's a good analogy. I suppose it's a stretch, but perhaps the decision not to shutdown international travel in January is akin to what happened in 1919.
1918 surely when the decision was made both sides of the Atlantic but particularly in America that the needs of the war were paramount so new recruits, including infected ones, continued to be packed into troop ships for the three week voyage to trenches.

Yes that was the key mistake weeks ago.

That was when normalcy bias was at its peak.

AlastairMeeks · March 2020

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.

Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.

GideonWise · March 2020

Mysticrose said:
Gideon et. al., I was out with a friend last night: dinner at a restaurant (I know, I know) and we were discussing the Blitz spirit. She said the same thing as you, that where this differs is that in the Blitz it produced social bonding: people pulling together and working together. This virus may do that in alternative ways but social isolation is the opposite tendency.

By the way, the restaurant was all set up for a party of 12 who cancelled at the last minute. There was us and a couple.

I'm hunkering down soon but last night was a required meeting.

I think we might have to invent new ways to bond, create our own myths.

Wearing masks and dropping off food to elderly relatives or neighbours doesn't have the same allure but we can work with it.

eek · March 2020

edmundintokyo said:

tlg86 said:

Yes, the idea of insurance is that we spread the risk between ourselves. Unfortunately, that model fails when everyone's house burns down.
I don't think this one is complicated.

- Insurance companies pay businesses
- Money printer go brrrrr
- Government pays insurance companies

That adds complexity especially given that no insurance company would be geared up to handle the claim levels. Better to find another way to do it probably via paye

AlastairMeeks · March 2020

Something to watch:

https://twitter.com/dannyshawbbc/status/1239592613243748353?s=21

There have been riots in Italian prisons about Covid-19.

Foxy · March 2020

AlastairMeeks said:
Something to watch:

https://twitter.com/dannyshawbbc/status/1239592613243748353?s=21

There have been riots in Italian prisons about Covid-19.

I think the Italian prison riots were due to a ban on visitors.

Certainly face to face visiting should stop. COVID19 in a prison would be horrible, though with a young population most would survive.

DavidL · March 2020

SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.

This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.

Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.

IanB2 · March 2020

The Sun: “Hose Ban Looms”

WTF?

alex_ · March 2020

Has this question been asked? How many members of the House of Lords are NOT over 70? And does this represent a problem for passing legislation?

Pulpstar · March 2020

Wonder if we're heading for deflation. Velocity of money must be heading south.

DavidL · March 2020

AlastairMeeks said:
Something to watch:

https://twitter.com/dannyshawbbc/status/1239592613243748353?s=21

There have been riots in Italian prisons about Covid-19.

I thought that was more about cutting off the drugs supply from visitors.

Jonathan · March 2020

So, the budget lasted just a week. Has that happened before?

Morris_Dancer · March 2020

Good morning, everyone.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

Pulpstar said:
Wonder if we're heading for deflation. Velocity of money must be heading south.

Somebody was saying this on the twitters but it's amazing how fast Universal Basic Income has gone from being a fringe idea to pretty much the only way forward.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

alex_ said:
Has this question been asked? How many members of the House of Lords are NOT over 70? And does this represent a problem for passing legislation?

I'd say it represents an opportunity to pass legislation!

Morning troops.

alex_ · March 2020

Jonathan said:
So, the budget lasted just a week. Has that happened before?

The pasty tax?

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

Jonathan said:
So, the budget lasted just a week. Has that happened before?

I remember pasty-gate...

edmundintokyo · March 2020

alex_ said:

Jonathan said:
So, the budget lasted just a week. Has that happened before?
The pasty tax?

Innocent times

SouthamObserver · March 2020

There are two fronts in this war: the health one and the economic one. In a war you do absolutely everything, make whatever sacrifices necessary, to win. There is no reason to believe the government is getting it wrong on the health front. The change of approach yesterday in the lght if new evidence was absolutely right. However, on the economic front it still has thinking to do and much more intervention is needed. This comes with a heavy long-term cost. It will mean higher taxes and more borrowing. But the alternative is far, far worse.

OldKingCole · March 2020

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:
Gideon et. al., I was out with a friend last night: dinner at a restaurant (I know, I know) and we were discussing the Blitz spirit. She said the same thing as you, that where this differs is that in the Blitz it produced social bonding: people pulling together and working together. This virus may do that in alternative ways but social isolation is the opposite tendency.

By the way, the restaurant was all set up for a party of 12 who cancelled at the last minute. There was us and a couple.

I'm hunkering down soon but last night was a required meeting.

I think we might have to invent new ways to bond, create our own myths.

Wearing masks and dropping off food to elderly relatives or neighbours doesn't have the same allure but we can work with it.

Two at least of the Groups (interest sub-etc) of the U3a to which I belong are setting up WhatsApp and similar Groups.As has my wife with the 'gossip group'..... one-time fellow teachers ..... to which she belongs.

malcolmg · March 2020

GideonWise said:
I think the modelling teams might not have been able to see the wood for the trees. Suddenly the wood appeared and we change strategy with the result being thousands of deaths are now a certainty rather than the 260,000 if we had continued.

There isn't enough stuff, masks, ventilators, swabs in the world. Ventilators are the new spitfires, masks are machine guns. Clear out the factories, this is total war.

Typical of these clowns, data ignored because it was from "foreigners", we all know they are stupid compared to the stout sovereign Brits.
Boris looking for cheap option.

SouthamObserver · March 2020

Key points:
1. Protect incomes
2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses
3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result
4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives

malcolmg · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
There are two fronts in this war: the health one and the economic one. In a war you do absolutely everything, make whatever sacrifices necessary, to win. There is no reason to believe the government is getting it wrong on the health front. The change of approach yesterday in the lght if new evidence was absolutely right. However, on the economic front it still has thinking to do and much more intervention is needed. This comes with a heavy long-term cost. It will mean higher taxes and more borrowing. But the alternative is far, far worse.

Hardly new evidence , unbelievable that the public had to point it out , the useless lickspittle press were berating people for not believing these absolute clowns.

Morris_Dancer · March 2020

Mr. Tokyo, it is a fringe idea. It may be a tool needed currently, but so is quarantining the elderly. It doesn't make quarantining the elderly, or those with asthma, all the time during normal life a good idea.

OldKingCole · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
There are two fronts in this war: the health one and the economic one. In a war you do absolutely everything, make whatever sacrifices necessary, to win. There is no reason to believe the government is getting it wrong on the health front. The change of approach yesterday in the lght if new evidence was absolutely right. However, on the economic front it still has thinking to do and much more intervention is needed. This comes with a heavy long-term cost. It will mean higher taxes and more borrowing. But the alternative is far, far worse.

I think that's right, There are only so many jobs which can be done from home, although in an ideal world a lot more activities could, perhaps, be done remotely. Humans are social animals though, and need to be able to interact.

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

Never mind the budget not lasting a week, yesterday's mealy-mouthed "advice" won't last 24 hours. They either shut pubs etc or they don't. Even Piers Morgan gets this. OK so the insurance companies won't be able to pay out - thats where the government comes in.

I understand the Tories political problem. Having criticised the bank bailouts and spending government money, having claimed were were on the verge of bankruptcy before they doubled the national debt there will be a whiff of bullshit when they print a gazillion pounds. But thats what political hubris does to you.

Print the bloody money. No business to go bankrupt, no jobs to be lost, no people to starve. This is war. All wages will be frozen - what you earned last week you will earn this week. That way we still have an economy and a society when we come out the other side.

SouthamObserver · March 2020

RochdalePioneers said:
Never mind the budget not lasting a week, yesterday's mealy-mouthed "advice" won't last 24 hours. They either shut pubs etc or they don't. Even Piers Morgan gets this. OK so the insurance companies won't be able to pay out - thats where the government comes in.

I understand the Tories political problem. Having criticised the bank bailouts and spending government money, having claimed were were on the verge of bankruptcy before they doubled the national debt there will be a whiff of bullshit when they print a gazillion pounds. But thats what political hubris does to you.

Print the bloody money. No business to go bankrupt, no jobs to be lost, no people to starve. This is war. All wages will be frozen - what you earned last week you will earn this week. That way we still have an economy and a society when we come out the other side.

100% correct.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

The way

DavidL said:
SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.

This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.

Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.

We should see some effect from the hand washing etc.. Can't even remember when that was!

The most crucial thing for me I keeping people out of hospital, and that means some form of treatment at home. There was a 'doctor' app heavily advertised last year, could we use that for consultations? There also needs to be some form of prescription that can be offered and home delivered. Even vitamin c and zinc would be better than nothing as a placebo.

Morris_Dancer · March 2020

Utterly OT, but when I looked into some stuff for my Quarantine Reading blog (https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2020/03/quarantine-reading.html) the other day I happened to notice, but forgot to mention, that if anyone happens to have books 20-28ish of Lone Wolf, original versions in good condition, they're (weirdly) worth something like $150-200.

It's a shame that publishing changes/problems got in the way, and Joe Dever never got to see the final books out there.

IanB2 · March 2020

Pulpstar said:
Wonder if we're heading for deflation. Velocity of money must be heading south.

The fact that the gold price turned around and is now sinking also, coupled with the relative resilience of bonds (except for companies potentially in difficulty) suggests the market is starting to think that way. Index linked bonds have also taken a hit.

We could get a short inflationary spike followed by a longer deflationary crisis.

The indices will also be potentially misleading in the short term, as they will contain things that are cheaper but nobody is buying.

malcolmg · March 2020

AlastairMeeks said:

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.

There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.

malcolmg · March 2020

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.

Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:
The way
DavidL said:
SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.

This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.

Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.
We should see some effect from the hand washing etc.. Can't even remember when that was!

The most crucial thing for me I keeping people out of hospital, and that means some form of treatment at home. There was a 'doctor' app heavily advertised last year, could we use that for consultations? There also needs to be some form of prescription that can be offered and home delivered. Even vitamin c and zinc would be better than nothing as a placebo.

I remembered the name of the app, it's called push doctor. I might download it and report back if it doesn't ask for payment upfront.

DavidL · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
Key points:
1. Protect incomes
2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses
3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result
4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives

As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.

Jonathan · March 2020

Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.

IanB2 · March 2020

Meanwhile on the markets, the size of yesterday’s collapse plus the likelihood of government announcements on the economy (certainly in the UK) means that today feels like a recovery day, if of the dead cat variety, I might try the odd small buy gamble if it looks like markets have some strength, but otherwise am staying out today. I will try to remember that casinos love winning punters when they become reckless.

ydoethur · March 2020

Jonathan said:
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.

I would get it done, personally. If you try driving without one it will invalidate your insurance.

RochdalePioneers · March 2020

I have a brilliant book called The Secret State by Professor Peter Hennessey. It details the Transition To War period conceived by the government at various stages during the Cold War. Like now, they assumed a timetable in the leadup which would likely accelerate rapidly.

Yesterday we declared war. Today the government need to initiate the war powers act onto the economy. Print money. Freeze prices, wages, debts. Requisition industry / hospitality etc to provide wartime functions like manufacturing things we need like masks and providing overflow isolation facilities for patients.

Treat this as war and its clear that you MUST act decisively. Not ah but er yes can you erm maybe strongly advise Boris bullshit.

malcolmg · March 2020

RochdalePioneers said:
Never mind the budget not lasting a week, yesterday's mealy-mouthed "advice" won't last 24 hours. They either shut pubs etc or they don't. Even Piers Morgan gets this. OK so the insurance companies won't be able to pay out - thats where the government comes in.

I understand the Tories political problem. Having criticised the bank bailouts and spending government money, having claimed were were on the verge of bankruptcy before they doubled the national debt there will be a whiff of bullshit when they print a gazillion pounds. But thats what political hubris does to you.

Print the bloody money. No business to go bankrupt, no jobs to be lost, no people to starve. This is war. All wages will be frozen - what you earned last week you will earn this week. That way we still have an economy and a society when we come out the other side.

They will be too busy looking after their own fortunes and that of their chums, we will be well down the pecking order.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

malcolmg said:

There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.

OTOH during the Blitz people needed to get into teensy little metal boxes filled with petrol and covered in bits of fabric and engage in death-defying dogfights in the skies of South-East England, whereas defeating this new enemy mostly requires them to stay at home watching pornhub.

OldKingCole · March 2020

Jonathan said:
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.

I've a dental check-up on 24th? Do I, don't I?

kingbongo · March 2020

malcolmg said:

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.
Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..

*sigh* ok, Boris is a twat, the UK is doomed, every other country is handling this sooo much better and you know exactly what to do.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.
I've a dental check-up on 24th? Do I, don't I?

MOT yes. (Medium benefit, low risk)

Dental check-up no. (Low benefit, medium risk)

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

OldKingCole said:

Jonathan said:
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.
I've a dental check-up on 24th? Do I, don't I?

Good excuse to miss the dentist I'd say.

ydoethur · March 2020

kingbongo said:

malcolmg said:

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.
Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..
*sigh* ok, Boris is a twat, the UK is doomed, every other country is handling this sooo much better and you know exactly what to do.

Now come on, Malcolm isn’t partisan. He thinks *all* politicians are twats.

IanB2 · March 2020

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.

There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.

SouthamObserver · March 2020

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:
Key points:
1. Protect incomes
2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses
3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result
4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.

Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.

edmundintokyo · March 2020

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Tokyo, it is a fringe idea. It may be a tool needed currently, but so is quarantining the elderly. It doesn't make quarantining the elderly, or those with asthma, all the time during normal life a good idea.

This is true. But nobody will demand to continue quarantining the elderly once the crisis ends, whereas once started the UBI could well be here to stay.

IanB2 · March 2020

Anyone who has a steady income, from employment or investment, is sitting relatively pretty right now, and you could justify an exceptional income tax for the current financial year.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

ydoethur said:

kingbongo said:

malcolmg said:

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.
Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..
*sigh* ok, Boris is a twat, the UK is doomed, every other country is handling this sooo much better and you know exactly what to do.
Now come on, Malcolm isn’t partisan. He thinks *all* politicians are twats.

Except Alex Salmond. He's just a bit of a lad.

AlastairMeeks · March 2020

The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.

At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.

Foxy · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:
The way
DavidL said:
SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.

This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.

Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.
We should see some effect from the hand washing etc.. Can't even remember when that was!

The most crucial thing for me I keeping people out of hospital, and that means some form of treatment at home. There was a 'doctor' app heavily advertised last year, could we use that for consultations? There also needs to be some form of prescription that can be offered and home delivered. Even vitamin c and zinc would be better than nothing as a placebo.

Zinc is not a placebo. There is pretty good evidence for it as an antiviral.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1239559464858144771?s=09

malcolmg · March 2020

kingbongo said:

malcolmg said:

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.
Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..
*sigh* ok, Boris is a twat, the UK is doomed, every other country is handling this sooo much better and you know exactly what to do.

Follow the processes of the ones that are being successful, that would be the sensible option rather than our lot modelling on some ancient flu epidemic. The evidence points to how to stop it, China and SK have managed to fix the hotspots, a sane person might look at that, unfortunately they are not keen on taking advice from foreigners as they are fixated on their sovereignty etc.

Gardenwalker · March 2020

Good morning.
Under a week ago I posed some innocent questions about government policy that attracted sneering from several quarters.

Great to be vindicated.

There’s a model for how to beat this, in the Far East.
It does not require welding people inside.
It *does* require mass testing, and a belief this can be beat, rather than “managed”. Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher would never have accepted that “a virus may never be found”.
I agree we are now at War.
Let us now approach this with wartime spirit, and wartime confidence. Let us think about how we save the lives of each other; how we protect our communities from starvation and ruin.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:
There are two fronts in this war: the health one and the economic one. In a war you do absolutely everything, make whatever sacrifices necessary, to win. There is no reason to believe the government is getting it wrong on the health front. The change of approach yesterday in the lght if new evidence was absolutely right. However, on the economic front it still has thinking to do and much more intervention is needed. This comes with a heavy long-term cost. It will mean higher taxes and more borrowing. But the alternative is far, far worse.

There are actually a fair few mothballed clothing factories in the UK. Not hard to produce masks. Someone just needs to order them, at a price that makes it viable.

malcolmg · March 2020

ydoethur said:

kingbongo said:

malcolmg said:

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.
Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..
*sigh* ok, Boris is a twat, the UK is doomed, every other country is handling this sooo much better and you know exactly what to do.
Now come on, Malcolm isn’t partisan. He thinks *all* politicians are twats.

The proof of my being right keeps on coming.

tlg86 · March 2020

AlastairMeeks said:
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.

At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.

Do you think the Dutch are ******?

SouthamObserver · March 2020

We also need to extend the transition period. We just do.

Charles · March 2020

Jonathan said:
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.

There was a story a couple of weeks ago about suspending the need for MOT. But drive anyway.

malcolmg · March 2020

IanB2 said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.
There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.

I am sure there were a good few roasters then , but no comparison of the modern day Brit to those in WWII , today's lot would be found wanting.

Luckyguy1983 · March 2020

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
The way
DavidL said:
SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.

This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.

Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.
We should see some effect from the hand washing etc.. Can't even remember when that was!

The most crucial thing for me I keeping people out of hospital, and that means some form of treatment at home. There was a 'doctor' app heavily advertised last year, could we use that for consultations? There also needs to be some form of prescription that can be offered and home delivered. Even vitamin c and zinc would be better than nothing as a placebo.
Zinc is not a placebo. There is pretty good evidence for it as an antiviral.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1239559464858144771?s=09

I agree, but it would have a placebo type benefit too.

eek · March 2020

Gardenwalker said:
Good morning.
Under a week ago I posed some innocent questions about government policy that attracted sneering from several quarters.

Great to be vindicated.

There’s a model for how to beat this, in the Far East.
It does not require welding people inside.
It *does* require mass testing, and a belief this can be beat, rather than “managed”. Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher would never have accepted that “a virus may never be found”.
I agree we are now at War.
Let us now approach this with wartime spirit, and wartime confidence. Let us think about how we save the lives of each other; how we protect our communities from starvation and ruin.

How do you do mass testing when you don't have the facilities to do more than x,000 tests a day?

malcolmg · March 2020

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

kingbongo said:

malcolmg said:

kingbongo said:

Mysticrose said:

tlg86 said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
Hang on, haven't we just fallen into line with the rest of Europe bar the Netherlands?
We're getting dragged there. The failure to make the closures mandatory is crass and means the businesses cannot claim on insurance. I really am beginning to think Boris isn't bright.

We're also still leaving schools open.

And our borders are open.
the differences between the UK and the rest of northern Europe are being massively exagerrated in the UK - yes there are some differences but these are largely the result of different specific aspects of the outbreak - Sweden for example is cross with Denamrk over the border closure as they think it unncessary, Denmark's scientists have been critical of the WHO director's testing message and Denmark switched to UK style testing last week.

The UK approach, like everyone else's is all about making the best calls possible based on the information available and the UK government is being more up-front than others over length of time. Here in Denmark the government is persisting with the fantasy of a two week closure just like Macron

- I wish the idea of a flexible and rapid change of direction could be seen as what it is - a sign of grown up emergency response handling rather than some of the claims of 'U-turns, 'failure' etc being written about. As for how things are done in Japan and S Korea I think it is quite clear that lessons are being learned but this is not something you can just map from 1 place to another for many economic and cultural reasons.
Did Boris send you out to try and pretend he is making a good job of it rather than the clusterfcuk we see in front of us..
*sigh* ok, Boris is a twat, the UK is doomed, every other country is handling this sooo much better and you know exactly what to do.
Now come on, Malcolm isn’t partisan. He thinks *all* politicians are twats.
Except Alex Salmond. He's just a bit of a lad.

We do not know that yet , he appears to be at best , stupid with the drink. Going by evidence so far he just looks like a dinosaur from the past.
PS: I was not aware he was still a politician and if he had been I would have been as critical of him being as stupid as the rest.

OldKingCole · March 2020

malcolmg said:

IanB2 said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.
There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.
I am sure there were a good few roasters then , but no comparison of the modern day Brit to those in WWII , today's lot would be found wanting.

Sorry Malc, but that's rubbish. Of course there'd be a mixture of good and bad, but plenty would 'step up to the plate' just as their grandparents did. See that among my and my friends children and grandchildren.

Alanbrooke · March 2020

AlastairMeeks said:
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.

At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.

err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?

DavidL · March 2020

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:
Key points:
1. Protect incomes
2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses
3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result
4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.

Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

Charles said:

Jonathan said:
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.
There was a story a couple of weeks ago about suspending the need for MOT. But drive anyway.

Is your insurace not at risk of being invalidated if you drive without an MOT?

Something for the Govt. to clarify pronto.

Foxy · March 2020

10% of my department already self isolating with coughs etc.

The need for testing of staff with symptoms is obvious to anyone apart from numpties, but still not happening.

It's not much fun being in the poor bloody infantry when the generals haven't equipped us.

Jonathan · March 2020

The government’s position is weird.

Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).

felix · March 2020

IanB2 said:

malcolmg said:

AlastairMeeks said:

GideonWise said:

Mysticrose said:

edmundintokyo said:

Mysticrose said:
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:

Margaret Thatcher.

That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.

The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.

I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.

Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.

Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.

But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.

The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.
There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.

Correct. Truth is most people most of the time do the right thing. Thyose sniping from the sidelines all the time rae just irritating little twats with even smaller minds. I say this under full lockdown here in Spain. Those who are screeching for their marching orders in the UK and to blindly follow Spain, Italy, etc - really should be careful what they wish for. Truth is there are no righ answers or good outcomes in the current situation - just some very difficult choices. So far the UK government has done no better or worse than anyone else.

MarqueeMark · March 2020

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
The way
DavidL said:
SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.

This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.

Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.
We should see some effect from the hand washing etc.. Can't even remember when that was!

The most crucial thing for me I keeping people out of hospital, and that means some form of treatment at home. There was a 'doctor' app heavily advertised last year, could we use that for consultations? There also needs to be some form of prescription that can be offered and home delivered. Even vitamin c and zinc would be better than nothing as a placebo.
Zinc is not a placebo. There is pretty good evidence for it as an antiviral.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1239559464858144771?s=09

Since you flagged this up a couple of weeks ago, I have been taking a zinc and selenium supplement. Thanks.

SouthamObserver · March 2020

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:
Key points:
1. Protect incomes
2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses
3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result
4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.

Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.

I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!

isam · March 2020

This’d be bad news for Dura Ace’s competition

https://twitter.com/antonkreil/status/1239738569595342850?s=21

Foxy · March 2020

It is easy to tell that this is a real crisis, no one is moaning about the new Vanilla format

noneoftheabove · March 2020

Jonathan said:
The government’s position is weird.

Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).

It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).

Excellent policy imo rather than weird.

Beibheirli_C · March 2020

Foxy said:
Zinc is not a placebo. There is pretty good evidence for it as an antiviral.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1239559464858144771?s=09

We have been taking zinc as well as Vit-C overdoses for a week now. We have two month's supply.

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